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ANSWER-TIMES Getting Started Manual (version 1.1) - iea

1. ccccccccesseceeeeeeeeceeeeeeeceeseeaeeeeeseaeeeees 9 2 1 OVEIVICW Sete seer Mc ueweise ene a actos citi cea webced dead Semae ct E 9 2 2 Scope of the tiny TIMES MOd leerarea e a Se enema 10 2 3 Building the tiny TIMES model with ANSWER TIMES cccccccsssssssseseceeceeeeeeeeeesseseaeeeeseeeeeees 11 2 3 1 Create New Database specifying Data and Results Time Periods c csesceeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeees 11 232 Use Region Management facility to create Internal and External Regions 0 ccecseeees 13 2 3 2 1 Invoke Region Management facility cccsssccccseseecceeeeeceeeeecceaeeeceegeeeseueeeseueeesseseeesseees 13 2 3 2 2 Create new Internal Region DEMO ccccccccsssseceeceeseeeeecaeeeceeeseeeeceesseaeeeessaaneeeeesaaeeeess 14 2 3 2 3 Create new External Region IMPEXP cccccssseececceeseeececseueceeeceeueeeeecuaaeseeesaeeeeeesssaneeess 15 2 3 3 Global Tab specify Global Data Parameters cccccccccsseeceecceeseceeeceeeeeeeseeeeeeessaaeeeeessaaess 16 23 35 Move to Data Screen Global Tab to specify Parameters cccccceecceceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaees 16 2 3 3 2 Specii G DYEAR Parameter iscsi onto weiter coed aun a aed teens 17 2 3 3 3 Specify G_DRATE Parameter for Internal Region DEMO ccccccccssseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeeeees 18 2 3 4 TimeSlice Tab specify Sub Annual TimeSlices amp associated Data Parameters 06 18 2 3 5 Commodity Tab
2. _ o_o Scenaio Parameter Pegon TimeSlic Value EASE OA EMO ANNUAL _7 0000 aie ia a a The TimeSlice Items display shows that the ANNUAL TimeSlice has been automatically generated for the special GLOBAL Region and for both the Internal Region DEMO and the External Region IMPEXP The TID data spread indicates that the only TID data TimeSlice Parameter instance is the G_YRFR Parameter instance for Region DEMO and the ANNUAL TimeSlice that we previously noted is automatically generated The TS data spread indicates that there are no TS data TimeSlice Parameter instances 2 3 5 Commodity Tab specify Commodities amp associated Data Parameters The Commodities Commodity Items for a TIMES model must be specified on the Data Screen Commodity Tab You must specify Commodities that are inputs or outputs to a Process before you can specify the Process e For comprehensive details regarding the creation of New Items see subsection 5 2 2 Creating a New Item in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual For the tiny TIMES model we need to specify just 3 Commodities NGAS Natural Gas ELC Electricity and RHEAT Residential Heat Each of these 3 Commodities must be specified in the Internal Region DEMO e However proper operation of ANSWER TIMES requires that the Commodity NGAS that is imported into the DEMO Region must also be specified in the External Region IMPEXP that is the source of NGAS First click on the Commo
3. 314 157037324685 VAR NCAP DEMO 2010 ECCNGAS 11 7808888996757 VAR NCAP DEMO 2010 RELCHPUMP 246 150259124099 VAR NCAP DEMO 2015 ECCNGAS 9 23063471715372 VAR_NCAP DEMO 2015 RELCHPUMP 192 865168906723 VAR_NCAP DEMO 2020 ECCNGAS 23244383400212 VAR_NCAP DEMO 2020 RELCHPUMP VAR_OBJ DEMO OBJINV CUR E 0 LHS 0 2 6 1 Ensuring an Equation Listing in the GAMS LST file for an ANSWER generated TIMES run To ensure that the GAMS LST file generated by the particular ANSWER TIMES run that you are undertaking will contain an Equation Listing section and to examine the Equation Listing section following completion of that run proceed as follows 1 Click on the Run Model button to bring up the Run Model form if necessary using the Change Run button to select the particular model run that you wish to undertake and making any changes that you wish to aspects of this model run but do not yet click on the OK button of the Run Model form Check the M Edit GAMS Control File checkbox at the bottom left of the Run Model form Now click on the OK button of the Run Model form To make the explanation more concrete in the remainder of this subsection we will assume that you are undertaking model run BASETINY When the Editing C AnswerTIMESv6 Gams_WrkTI BASETINY GEN form appears replace LIMROW 0 by LIMROW 99 then invoke menu item File Close and Start Run Note Sometimes when editing the
4. Scenario Parameter Region Region2 Process Commodity Item3 Comf tem item6 IE 1990 2000 20o 205 2020 4 IRE_PRICE 2 REG MINRNW MINGAS GAS ANNUAL IMP O 5 0000 5 0000 5 0000 5 0000 5 0000 5 PAdd TPADCESSES a LT Scenario Parameter _ REG MINAN Ww MINGAS f MiNGAS p o MINANW MINGAS p REG MING M TPROCESSES TOPIRE E O ee ee ee ee ee In this example IRE_PRICE is the only TS parameter instance that has been specified though of course in general other TS parameter instances such as NCAP_COST NCAP_TLIFE etc might be appropriate As it happens all of the TID parameter instances are automatically created by ANSWER TIMES if the ANSWER TIMES interface is used to create Trade Process MINGAS In closing we note that an alternative to the above approach would be to create a Mining Extraction Process as a standard PRE process whose single output is the commodity being mined extracted in the Internal Region s where this commodity is mined extracted 3 3 7 3 Specifying an Electric Power Plant ELE For an example of an Electric Power Plant open the database Example4 with Processes mdb make the non BASE scenario TRPROCESSES editable click on the Edit Data button move to the Process tab and select EUHCOUSCCON If you click on the Edit button in the Item Management frame to bring up the Edit Process form then you will see the following key features of Process E
5. Before attempting to build a TIMES model careful consideration should be given to the nature of the TimeSlicing that is going to be specified e Be aware that TIMES has 4 possible levels of TimeSlice ANNUAL SEASON WEEKLY DAYNITE with all except the ANNUAL level optional That said in the majority of TIMES models 3 levels of TimeSlice are used ANNUAL SEASON DAYNITE with the WEEKLY TimeSlice omitted as is the case with the ANSWER TIMES demonstration models e Also the term SEASON should be considered somewhat generic While perhaps most often TIMES models will contain 4 TimeSlices at the SEASON level some TIMES models contain 12 TimeSlices at the SEASON level with each such SEASON corresponding to a month of the year e There is considerable variation across TIMES models in the number of TimeSlices specified at the DAYNITE level most practitioners specify at least 4 DAYNITE TimeSlices but some specify 24 so hourly or even higher e Finally consider both whether the data is available to support a very fine level of TimeSlicing and also the fact that with a very fine level of TimeSlicing the resultant TIMES LP will have a very large number of variables and equations The steps involved in specifying sub Annual TimeSlices and their associated Data Parameters for the ANSWER TIMES demonstration model are explained in subsections 3 3 4 1 to 3 3 4 3 below e For comprehensive details regarding the creation o
6. eS o ee Besa Year __ 2003 2008 T CO Aowebie Miestone Yeas 2005 2m 2015 A M 2007 ED MEA e How is the recalculation done E 2 and B 3 should be halfway between the Milestone Years 2010 and 2020 so E 2 needs to be 2010 2020 2 2015 and hence B 3 E 2 1 2016 2 4 3 5 Scenarios comprising this run display and associated buttons The Scenarios comprising this run display on the Run Model form displays the Scenarios that comprise the Run The BASE scenario is always one of the Scenarios and where the Run involves just the BASE scenario as is the case for our run of the tiny TIMES Model it will be the only Scenario displayed Scenarios comprising this rur Modified BASE Tiny TIMES Model 2012 05 30 23 44 Up On fuel Regions In general a Run comprises the BASE scenario and zero or more non BASE scenarios Here we demonstrate how to use the Add button to specify a Run that involves the BASE scenario and a single non BASE scenario Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 50 For purposes of this demonstration we need to assume that for the Tiny TIMESModel database we have already used the New Scenario facility to create a non BASE scenario say CO2 EMIS that adds commodity CO2 and associates CO2 emissions parameters with processes in the tiny TIMES model See subsection 2 5 below for information about non BASE scenarios and the New Sc
7. specify Commodities amp associated Data ParameterS ccccsseeeeeeeeeeees 19 23 5 1 Specify Commodity NGAS in Region DEMO cccccccccseeeeeceeeeeeeeeeeceeeesesaeeeseeeeeesesaeaeees 20 2 3 5 2 Specify Commodity NGAS in Region IMPEXP cccccseeecccceeeeeeeeeeceeeeseeaeeeeeeeeeeessaeaeess 22 2 3 5 3 Specify Commodity ELC in Region DEMO ccccccccsccceseseececeeeeeaeeeeceeeeessaeeeeeeeeesssaeeeees 24 2 3 5 4 Specify Commodity RHEAT in Region DEMO cccccccccseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesaaeaeeeeeeeeesaas 25 2 3 6 Process Tab specify Processes amp associated Data Parameters ccceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 27 2 3 6 1 Overview of what is involved in specifying a new TIMES ProcesSS cccecsseeeeeeeeeeeeees 27 2 3 6 2 Specify Process ECCNGAS in Region DEMO cccccccceseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeuaeneeeeeeeeseaas 27 2 3 6 3 Specify Process RELCHPUMP in Region DEMO seeseecceeeeeesesseceeeeeeeaeeseeeeeeeeeaas 34 2 3 7 TradeProcess Tab specify Trade Processes amp associated Data Parameters 004 37 2 3 7 1 Overview of what is involved in specifying a new TIMES Trade Process cccseeeeeees 37 2 32 Specify Trade Process IMPNGAS raisins a 37 2 3 8 Constraint Tab specify User Constraints amp associated Data Parameters c cccceeeeees 42 2 4 Using Run Model facility to initiate a TIMES GAMS run Import Re
8. Getting Started Manual 66 Region is selected These parameters are also displayed on the Parameter tab as are all other TIMES parameters but for user convenience the Global Tab is usually preferable The screenshot below shows the Global Tab when the special GLOBAL region has been selected For this particular database the only category a parameter that has been specified is the G_DYEAR Base year for discounting parameter Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter Sets Named s1cneis B on AL Srecial region for data parameters with no REG arg IMPEXP IMPEXP MINRNW MINRANW REG Region 1 Subset Parameters o Global TS TID data ieee rome Roi Sep ea ae ae as ae a os os ot Add BASE Twat E Scenario Parameter Resin Step Age Vawe pease G DYEAR a GLOBAL 2 00 00 Add Base Tw op Actually it is not unusual for the G_DYEAR parameter to be the only category a parameter that is specified in an ANSWER TIMES database To see all possible such TIMES parameters click on the 2 button to the right of the Ts TID data gt combobox circled above 1 Data Parameter Information for Globals for region GLOBAL and scenario s BASE Legend data parameter exists C compulsory O optional illegal missing compulsory Time Series Parameters J OFFTHD Threshold tor OFF
9. Run Model Hodel Run Details Name DISCRETE INV Change Aun Description Discrete Capacity Investment Parameters for Process E70 l vost pees Specity Milestone Years Scenarios comprising this run dd Modified Remove CE BASE example4 demonstration database 2013705714 18 36 DISCRETE INY Discrete Capacity Investment Paramete 2010 0774 15 36 Up Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 117 e The Discretelnvest keyword is used by ANSWER to ensure that the line SET DSC YES is inserted into the GEN file that controls the TIMES GAMS run thereby ensuring that the TIMES Discrete Capacity Investment Extension code is activated The reader may have noticed that the Model Variant and Objective Function Specification form also provides support for TIMES Alternative Objective Function formulations and Alternative approaches to Discounting e Alternative Objective Function formulations are available in TIMES as are alternative approaches to Discounting For a summary see section 4 Controls affecting objective function of TIMES Control Switches pdf by Antti Lehtila and for details see TIMES Objective Variants pdf also by Antti Lehtila Both of these PDF files may be downloaded from the ETSAP website and are also available in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc e Support for these TIMES Objective Function options with no need for the user to intervene manually in
10. button displays Standard TIMES which is the default TIMES Model Variant and is the appropriate Model Variant for our run of the tiny TIMES Model WHY gt E Model Variant Specify Model Variant Standard TIMES Specify Milestone Years The Specify Model Variant button becomes important when you are ready to move beyond Standard TIMES and start using some of the intermediate advanced TIMES model variants For now we simply observe that if you click on the Specify Model Variant button you bring up the Model Variant and Objective Function Specification form that initially is a slightly intimidating form indicating assorted model variants such as Elastic Demand Climate Damages in Objective LP NLP Discrete Capacity Investment etc as well as Objective Function options Further details of the use of the Specify Model Variant button and the operation of the Model Variant and Objective Function Specification form are provided in Section 3 of this Getting Started Manual 2 4 3 4 Specify Milestone Years button The Run Model form itself does not display the Milestone Years for a Run To browse edit the Milestone Years for a Run click on the Specify Milestone Years button to bring up the following form Milestone fears Beginning fears Ending Years Milestone Years B and E for case BASETIN G are displayed in Edit mode Checkbowes that are checked specii which Results Perods will compris
11. o gt 2 O pe D 2 D Q Figure 4 7 Partial view of a simple Reference Energy System 4 3 The systems analysis approach quantification Once the system and its main components are identified the estimate and quantification step can start Depending on the availability of statistical and technical information the identification of the system can be revised On top of the usual difficulty of gleaning basic information in sectors that sometimes protect their data for competitive reasons the analytical problem here is to harmonise the four aspects in a consistent framework This often shows that not all data sources are reliable and additional assumptions corrections are necessary 4 3 1 Flows of energy commodities The energy flows are described in the national balance see Table 4 1 The national balance contains the energy consumption data for the base year the fuel consumption by end use and thereby holds the basic structure of the model Generally the balance contains data on the total fuel consumption in each aggregate sector commercial industrial residential transport and perhaps agriculture ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A17 Table 4 1 Global summary energy balance for 1973 IEA 2004 a 1973 in Mtoe Coal i Jo Gee Nuc Hydro Bio Speo TOTAL Indigenous Prod 1476 2936 994 52 319 673 9 6459 Imports 140 1577 410 73 0 8 2209 Exports 130 1611 441 73 0 8 2264
12. Manual TLOVOSLOOO REG Transport LOY diesel standard TD REG Diesel Car THE REG Electric Car Tai REG Gasoline Car 89 SM Eam Subset Parameters ec Process Specific Ts TID data z Scenario Pace Region Process LM PROCES ACTLEFF PRG TLDVDSLOOO M TPROCKgSES ACT_EFF 2 ag TLDVDSLONO LM _ TPROCES SPa EG TLS M TPROCESSES FLO_MRKPRD 7 REG PKM_ M _ TPROCESSES FLO_MRKPRD 7 REG PKM_ REG M_ TPROC Smee TPC ALTO TARPS TLDVDSLOGO val _ C AN omma Car A A 6 REG TLOVOSLOOO E ooo TLOVDSLODO DSL p EG TLOvDSLOOO E02 p ooo o Oo Scenario Parameter TOP IN TOP OUT T T ID TLEWOSLOOO G PROCESSES TOFP OUT PROCESSES TOP OUT dd TPROCESSES SO E TLOVOSLOO0 PEM _L EG TLOVOSLO00 PEM _S a ee eel ma GI Od oy a El ion Commodi Yea Tere hie aLL a Aon 390 000 390 0000 390 0000 g 0 273 0000 273 0000 2ga OO E r40 n o o o o lt a ee 3 3 7 7 TIMES Data Parameters Applying Only to Not Applying to Types of TIMES Processes In section 3 3 7 1 above we observed that a common set of Process Data Parameters applies to most TIMES Processes However it is important to be aware that there are some Process Data Parameters that apply only to particular types of TIMES processes and conversely that there are some Process Data Parameters that cannot be used for particular types of TIMES processes These
13. DEMO 1990 1990 E21 SU VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 H21 FA VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E21 WI L 2 5 Note the correspondence between the GAMS Equation Listing above for User Constraint EQL_UCRT REG UCRT DEMO 1990 and the mathematics several pages earlier but where tp has been replaced by 1990 2 timeslices ts that apply to process E01 in region DEMO VAR_ACT DEMO E01 ts 1990 2 timeslices ts that apply to process E21 in region DEMO VAR_ACT DEMO E21 ts 1990 lt RHS 1990 3 The reader may be wondering a Why is the default for an ANSWER TIMES GEN file to have SET VAR_UC YES rather than SET VAR_UC NO b What happens if we repeat the above run but replace only LIMROW 0 by LIMROW 99 and leave SET VAR_UC YES unchanged Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 112 The answer to question a is that if we do a model run that has SET VAR_UC YES then the ANSWER TIMES results will contain both results marginals and results levels both UCRT M and UCRT L results parameter instances for the REG UCRT User Constraint whereas if the run has SET VAR_UC NO then the ANSWER TIMES results will contain only results marginals and not results levels so only UCRT M results parameter instances for the REG UCRT User Constraint The reader might like to verify this by bringing up the Run Model form with REG UCRT as the selected Run chan
14. Lagtime of a commodity after new capacity ready output Leadtime of a commodity before new capacity ready Use but of commodity based upon capacity input Use hut of commodity based upon capacity output Investment cost for new capacity Cost af decommissioning Economic lifetime to pay for decommissioning Unit size of discrete capacity addition Delay to begin decommissioning Cost af decommissioning delay P e m d la de l l m u e m M o o o Mm kai Cancel 14 and then click on the OK button The Add Row now appears as follows with the Parameter combobox containing NCAP_COST with the Region and Process indexes automatically set to DEMO and ECCNGAS respectively and with the cursor apparently placed in the 2005 column AddRow cell ready for entry of numeric data Subset Parameters Jec Process Specific fts TID data 2 a a Ca CO fad BASE INCAPCOST 7 15 But right now there is a small bug and before attempting to enter Add Row numeric data in the 2005 column it is safest if you click in the 2005 column AddRow cell Enter 400 400 400 400 in the 2005 2010 2015 2020 column cells in the Add Row The easiest way of doing this is to click in the 2005 column cell enter 400 and then press the F2 key which will extend the value of 400 to the remaining cells Then press the 4 key or the Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting St
15. NE Other OTH B Residential RES B Transportation TAM J Energy Carrier HAG E Conservation CONSAW B Electricity ELC There are no Units associated with CommGroup Items 3 Click on the OK button and the Commodity Group Item SREFOO5 O will be created in Region REG and will become the current Item in the Commodity Group Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Example4d with Processes SNSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help or Fl JEJE E Alv Edit Data Regions Filter Items All E cenarios All Global Time5Slice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter ltem Filter G Ses ie fan Commodity Groups COM GRP Sets Filter Named Filter sem ete it i bd OIL Dil a a Sets FH Residential Space Heating RHG_IN RHG_IN New Copy Delete Edit AL Residential Lighting SREFOO5 O True CG for SHEFOOS on the Cutout side Sh _ Select Al Items EA mes Subset Parameters 0 Comodity Group 73 TID data Scenario Parameter Region IE 1980 2000 2mo 2015 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 Madd PROCESSES pp Scenario Parameter Region _ Commodity CammGroup TimeSlice value ee ee Database CVAnswerlI MES vo 4anewer Databases E sampled with Processes n Edit Scenario TPROCESSES vt Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Starte
16. This Section uses a tiny TIMES model to introduce the basic ANSWER TIMES facilities which are needed to build any TIMES model Then it steps through the operation of the ANSWER TIMES Run Model facility to initiate a TIMES GAMS run and the Import of Results from such a run into ANSWER TIMES Finally in preparation for Section 3 we explain two important ANSWER facilities that are not specifically related to the tiny TIMES model i non BASE scenarios and how to create them and ii the Equation Listing in a GAMS LST file and how to ensure that the GAMS LST file generated by an ANSWER TIMES run contains an Equation Listing Overview Once the scope of the TIMES model has been decided and model data has been collected the steps involved in building a model in ANSWER TIMES are e Create a new database and define the Data Time Periods years with input data and Results Time Periods periods for running the model e Define the model Regions Internal and External Regions e Define global Data Parameters Global tab e Define sub Annual TimeSlices and associated Data Parameters TimeSlice tab e Define Commodities and associated Data Parameters Commodity tab e Define Processes and associated Data Parameters Process tab e Define Trade Processes and associated Data Parameters TradeProcess tab e Define User Constraints and associated Data Parameters Constraint tab A small TIMES model can be built using the ANSWER TIMES i
17. VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 WIN VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E21 SP VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E21 SU VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E21 FA VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E21 WI VAR_UCRT REG UCRT DEMO 1990 E 0 This is perhaps not what we were expecting we might have been expecting to see L 2 5 in place of VAR_UCRT REG UCRT DEMO 1990 E 0 But now use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of VAR VAR_UCRT We find the following blank lines have been deleted that shows that variable VAR_UCRT REG UCRT DEMO 1990 has an upper bound of 2 5 VAR VAR_UCRT LOWER LEVEL UPPER MARGINAL REG UCRT DEMO 1990 LNE 1 6209 2 5000 REG UCRT DEMO 2000 INE 3 0000 3 0000 a LOZ REG UCRT DEMO 2010 TNE 1 9726 3 5000 Mathematically sum of VAR_ACTs VAR_UCRT 0 where VAR_UCRT lt 2 5 Is equivalent to sum of VAR_ACTs lt 2 5 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 113 3 3 10 Parameter Tab the special role of the Parameter tab in ANSWER TIMES On the Data Screen the Parameter tab differs in nature to the other Data Screen tabs Whereas on the TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint and Stochastic tabs e the listview in the top half of the screen displays Items occurring in the selected scenarios that correspond to the type of tab so for example displays TimeSlice Items on the TimeSlice tab displays Commodity Ite
18. a RHEAT RELCHPUMP fF Residential Heat Pump ECCNGAS Combined cycle Gas Power Plant IMPNGAS Import Natural Gas It is easy to see that these flows make sense The output flow of 45 45 PJ of NGAS for Process IMPNGAS becomes an input flow of 45 45 PJ for Process ECCNGAS Since ECCNGAS has an efficiency of 55 the output flow of ELC for Process ECCNGAS should be 0 55 45 45 25 00 PJ Itis Likewise since RELCHPUMP has an efficiency of 400 the output flow of RHEAT for Process RELCHPUMP should be 4 25 00 100 00 Pu It is 6 Now multi select the Results Parameters VAR _ACT L VAR_CAP L and VAR_NCAP L so that we see the Activity Total Installed Capacity and New Capacity for each of the three Processes IMPNGAS ECCNGAS RELCHPUMP as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 55 Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Itema Filter E Gets Hamed ever Pesults Parameters Levels sets Filter Hamed Filter ltem Management 3 iteme selected Cots EN VAR ACT L Process Activity by TimeSlice all vintages B VOR _ACTe L Process Activity by TimeSlice vintaged WAR _OAP L Total Installed Capacity in a Period Hew Copy Delete Browse VAR COMME T L Mett Commodity Level by TimeSlice VAR_COMPRD L Commodity Production by TimeSlice _Satectaitems Move r
19. availability factors and commodity inputs and outputs of a process may be defined in various flexible ways depending on the desired process ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A19 operation on the time slice resolution chosen for the process and on the time slice resolution of the commodities involved Certain parameters are only relevant to special processes such as storage processes or processes that implement trade between regions but besides these two special types of processes most of the parameters and features are the same and available for all processes A large amount of this information is used by TIMES to represent the system quantitatively When data refers to existing technologies see example in Figure 8 technical and economic data are generally reliable because they can be gathered directly from manufacturers and their catalogues However it is difficult to assemble significant average values for an average technology over a country because technologies labelled in the same way may have quite different technical contents It is more difficult to assemble reliable data on the stock of existing technologies and their characteristics by year of construction installation This is a critical point because this information embodies the past history of the system and conveys to the analyst of the technological content of a system the same information that econometricians gather from time series of macro economic
20. bbl this cost represented about 4 of the global GDP at market prices about 37 TUS In 2005 with a yearly average spot price of 38 1 bbl this share was much higher But at current future prices of crude oil approaching 100 bbl November 2007 the marginal value of primary energy supply will approach 10 percent of global GDP The additional annual cost of generating electricity fuels and heat adds another considerable amount If annual costs of transmission and distribution are added the total cost of supplying to the economic producers and the families the amount of energy demanded is on the order of 15 of the global GDP Slightly more than half of this cost is borne by families the rest by industries However the economic weight of energy systems as a whole is much higher Actually if the energy system efficiency concept explained above is taken into account the economic weight of the system affected by energy policies ranges between 35 to 50 In fact it includes all end use devices that transform final energy into useful energy and into the energy services demanded by final users i e motor and engines heating systems and thermal insulation industrial boilers and ovens etc Their energy efficiency improvement potential is much higher than in the primary supply sectors In a system analysis view this part of the system is even more important than the supply side when it comes to controlling the future development of the system
21. displays the 6 most common types of TIMES User Constraints EQ UCRTS EQI_UCRT EQI UCR EQ UCTS EQ UCT EQI_UC For each of these constraint types the in EQ is G or E or L for a gt or or lt constraint respectively Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 106 In the figure above User Constraints are categorized at the Region level as being either e Each Region which we prefer to describe as by region with either of these terms meaning that the User Constraint is defined for each of a number of specific regions or e Summing over Regions which we prefer to describe as cross region with either of these terms meaning that the User Constraint is defined by summing across several regions User Constraints are then categorized at the Period level as being either e Each Period meaning that the User Constraint is defined for each of a number of specific periods or e Summing over Periods meaning that the User Constraint is defined by summing over several periods Finally User Constraints are categorized at the TimeSlice level as being either e Each TimeSlice meaning that the User Constraint is defined for each of a number of specific timeslices or e Summing over TimeSlices meaning that the User Constraint is defined by summing over several timeslices For a User Constraint where Summing over Periods appli
22. either existing generation equipment must be used more intensively or new possibly more efficient equipment must be installed The choice by the model of the generation equipment type and fuel is based on the analysis of the characteristics of alternative generation technologies on the economics of the energy supply and on environmental criteria TIMES is thus a vertically integrated model of the entire extended energy system 1 2 The ANSWER TIMES User Interface ANSWER TIMES is a Windows interface developed by Noble Soft Systems Australia for working with the TIMES family of energy system models ANSWER TIMES provides the energy analyst with facilities for data entry edit orowse for model run generation and for results handling To use the model run facility of ANSWER TIMES you will need to have the GAMS mathematical modelling language software on your PC Also there are some important ANSWER TIMES facilities that require you to have Microsoft Excel on your PC The ANSWER TIMES software uses a similar paradigm to the ANSWER MARKAL software which was the first Windows based interface for working with the ETSAP group s MARKAL energy system model and has similar goals namely to enable the TIMES model to become more readily accessible to and usable by the energy policy and systems analyst There is alternative software for working with TIMES the VEDA software developed by KanORS EMR India that has a quite different phi
23. follows Subset Parameters 0 Trade Process 3 ifi ali TID data 3 ise Pama 7 fre Ronse ey nd Et it Yo ven a base IRELPRICE U2 DEMO IMPEXP IMposL1 DSL ANNUAL IMP po ai nan To Posse ine rice A ooe eeo posit ps anna N Gee J o roc som a a n e D E E E a E a a a A Note that Trade Process IMPDSL1involves the IMPort of DSL into each of regions DEMO and UTOPIA The correct specification of an IRE_PRICE parameter instance must have Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 104 3 3 8 4 Noble Soft an Internal region DEMO or UTOPIA in the Region column an External region IMPEXP in the Region2 column and 6 IMP in the Item5 column where Import into an Internal region from an External region is involved as is the case in the above example or EXP in the Item5 column in the case where Export from an Internal region to an External region is involved Recommendations re Use of Market Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES For fairly comprehensive details re the handling of Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES see Section 16 Handling of Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual Note also that for ANSWER TIMES version 6 8 1 and higher sub folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc contains Word doc Handling of Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES Additional Information doc that provides some recommendations and clarifications regarding the use of
24. use Devices LNG Tanker Natural gas at the hub Gas Grid Furnace Reduced use of materials High voltage electricity Electricity Grid Low voltage Electricity Light Bulb Radiation Luminaire PV Cell Wind Farms Low voltage Electricity Heat Pump Thermal insulation of the building High voltage electricity Electricity Grid Low voltage Electricity Air conditioner Thermal insulation of the building Truck Kerosene Motor Engine The aircratt around the engine Biodiesel Truck Ethanol Biodiesel Motor Engine The automobile around engine End Use ce Feeling Feeling Long distance Urban Energy Non metallic RIRS z nO Illumination comfortably at comfortably at passenger passenger Services minerals l home home transport traffic Figure 4 1 The energy system schematic diagram with some illustrative examples of the energy sector and energy end use and services ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A4 Energy services are the result of a combination of various technologies infrastructures capital labour know how materials and energy carriers Clearly all these input factors carry a price tag and within each category are in part substitutable for one another From the consumer s perspective the important issues are quantity quality and cost of energy services It often matters little what the energy carrier or t
25. 17e The Add Row now appears as follows with the first previously empty combobox now containing NGAS and the second empty combobox now containing ANNUAL The fourth index of the ACT_EFF parameter is a TimeSlice index and for the tiny TIMES model ANNUAL is the only possibility Scenario Parameter _ Region Process Commo Commr Comm ar Item5 temei 2005 20m0 2015 2020 4 INCAPLCOST DEMO ECCNGAS 00 0000 400 0000 400 0000 400 0000 L BASE NCAP_FOM DEMO ECCNGAS 390 0000 30 0000 30 0000 30 0000 z zl ncas 2 Ear Tc a a a 18 Enter 0 55 0 55 0 55 0 55 in the 2005 2010 2015 2020 column cells in the Add Row The easiest way of doing this is to click in the 2005 column cell enter 0 55 and then press the F2 key which will extend the value of 0 55 to the remaining cells Then press the 4 key or the Insert key so that the contents of the Add Row are displayed in the TS spread and the Add row is returned to its initial state The TS data spread will now appear as follows o 0 5500 0 5500 0 5500 0 5500 O 400 0000 400 0000 400 0000 400 0000 ao aooo 300000 300000 p a D a es ee with all TS parameter instances specified for ECCNGAS that are needed for the tiny TIMES model 2 3 6 3 Specify Process RELCHPUMP in Region DEMO 1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Process form 2 Enter RELCHPUMP in the Name textb
26. 4 1 4 Emissions and the environment The damage to the environment is the major indirect cost caused by present energy systems Substances emitted into the atmosphere by energy technologies such as e power plants refineries incinerators factories domestic households cars and other vehicles animals and humans fossil fuel extraction and production sites offices and public buildings and e distribution pipelines are mainly responsible for e global warming climate change e acidification e air quality degradation and e damage and soiling of buildings and other structures Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre industrial period results from fossil fuel use about 85 The carbon dioxide radiative forcing increased by 20 from 1995 to 2005 the largest change for any decade in at least the last 200 years The radiative forcing contribution of CO2 equals now the total net anthropogenic contribution to radiative forcing 1 66 W m2 gt The level of this indirect cost is highly debated Methodologies used so far to assess this value for instance ExternE and its extension elaborated in NEEDS both are EC projects have some degree of reliability in the evaluation of the physical impacts but diverge when it comes to converting the damage into monetary units because most damaged goods are
27. Additional Characterization Fy Combined Heat amp Power CHP Annual Time Slice Level E Demand Device DMD Seasonal Time Slice Level fe Electric Generation ELE Weekly Time Slice Level E Energy PRE Day Might Time Slice Level Fy Heat Generation HFL T Distribution System DISTR C ImporteE sport IRE I Night Storage NST L Storage not NST of STK STGTSS B Material by weight PRY B Material by volume PRY B Miscellaneous MISC Process Activity Units petajoule bi Process Capacity Unite gigawatts PAC_CARACT Value 21 AGE Change Units OF Cancel 5 Click on the I O Commodities tab The New Process form appears as follows Mew Process in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Process Check the Region combobox setting Speciy Set Memberships and change Units if necessary Specify O Commodities and PCG Optionally enter Comment After clicking OK specify parameter data as appropriate Item Information Scenario p ase TinyTIME SModel ag Name Desc JECCN GAS DEMO ka Combined cycle Gas Power Plant Set Memberships Units Input Output Commodities f Input based Process Activity i Qutputbased Process Activity Committ F__Deseiptin _ Tyne ton en ype PCG eect Add Comm ove Camm Add Comm Remove Comm re Comm buttone to add remove Input Commodities Use Add Remove Comm buttons to add remove Output Commodities In PCG column check Comm
28. BASE UCRULE_ACT DEMO RENEWELC LHS RENEW ELE ANNUAL O 1 0000 1 0000 1 0000 Add Ee E T E A E E E E A A A E M e a ewe e y a CTT e E Scenario Parameter Region _ Constraint Side item3 Itema tem Year Value BASE UCA EACH bem0 a E a ee ee ee ee eee Database CVAnswer lIMESv6 4answer Databases Utopia_Demo_UC mdb Edit Scenario REG UCRT ve 4 Click on the New button circled above to bring up the New User Defined Constraint form and In the Item Information frame enter REG UCRT as the Name accept DEMO as the Region and enter By Region User Constraint type UCRT as the Description Under Set Memberships select C CPAM mAN M NEA ELERAN as the leaf node This causes the l Pulle based UCRULE checkbox to appear under Additional Characterization on the RHS e Accept the default setting of unchecked for the C Rule based UCRULE checkbox The New User Defined Constraint form will appear as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 109 E New User Defined Constraint in scenario REG UCRT Enter Name and Description for the new User Defined Constraint Check the Region combobor setting Specie Set Memberships and change i Units if necessary Optionally enter Comment After clicking OE specity parameter data as appropriate Item Information Scenario re G UCRT By Region User Defined Constraint sum over timesl
29. BASE scenario as modified by non BASE scenario REG UCRT return to the Home Screen and click on the Run Model button This will bring up the Run Model form with REG UCRT as the selected Run Check the M Edit GAMS Control File checkbox at the bottom left of the Run Model form and then click on the OK button of the Run Model form When the Editing C AnswerTIMESv6 Gams_WrkTI REG UCRT GEN form appears replace LIMROW 0 by LIMROW 99 then lower down on the form replace SET VAR_UC YES by SET VAR_UC NO and invoke menu item File Close and Start Run Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 111 Run Model a x Hodel Run Details Name REG UCAT Change Aun Description By Region User Defined Constraint sum over timeslices eee Edit GAMS Control File so that LIMAOW 99 5ET YAR_UC HO LEi Oe BS Editing Ch Answer TIMES t6 Gams _WrkTOREG UCRT GEN Model Variant Spe Eile Edit AHSWER TIHES ERSION 6 9 1 TIMES ERSION 3 4 IMCOL 0 SOLPRINT ON ITERLIM 50000 E W00 PROFILE 1 SOLYEOQPT REPLACE Scenarios comprisin TTP EX OPTION SYSOUT 0H GU RASE OFFLISTING l ONEMPTY REG UCRT j sONLISTING 5ET SHELL ANSWER Activate validation to force YAR_CAP COMPROD and square obj costing 5ET VALIDATE HO GAMS Basis Res fe Solve from scra Initialize the environment yanables 5ET DEBUG NO GAMS Basis Restat SET SOLVE NOW YES SET DUMP
30. Blast furnaces cowpers aaa tse a a 30204 Plasterfumaces ooo O S Y S S a y y Figure 4 10 Source CORINAIR Emissions by category ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A22 Thousands of tone per year tpv Category Type e Pins WO a NATURAL SOURCES Lad NATURAL SOURCES Total a EZ MISCELLANEOUS MISCELLANEOUS Total i FUEL COMB ELEC UTIL 364 5 133 5 5598 6 123531 1 0 3 Gas 0 5 288 5 4 3 3 8 intemal Combustion ae 59 2 HEEE E C ES E EEE FUEL COMB ELEC UTIL Total ray aoa A a a AS FUEL COMB INDUSTRIAL Coal FE 354 613 8 1768 6 0 0 a E E EE EE EE _ Combustion 0 0 a BL EL EL LE a sa 0 0 FUEL COMB INDUSTRIAL Total TEEN 17 7 rr FUEL COMB OTHER Commercial Inst Coal 6 0 398 2059 0 0 Commercial Tmst Gas a ea aaa 0 8 Commercial Inst Oil ae EE 2 2 Misc Fuel Comb Except 740 10 8 4 6 Residential Residential Other a Residential Wiond ers ses FUEL COMB OTHER Total err 8 TTE ITE R J o tt ON ROAD VEHICLES Diesels 1364 1439 19324 839 44 Heavy Duty Gas Vehicles ae ee 2 6 Light Duty Cras Trucks 72 6 Light Duty Gras Vehicles 13 2 oth amp Motorcycles ON ROAD VEHICLES Total po 261 0 207 0 7035 2 919 7 240 3 NON ROAD ENGINES AND Aircral 705 289 1775 VEHICLES Marine Vessels 14 7 Maa 12 Figure 4 11 Source U S EPA 1998 Emissions by category 4 3 4 Quantifying the economic dimension of the system
31. DISCRETE ucar oist ofres fera ooo o oof oso osol asof oso oso osol osof 060 M _ DISCRETEJNY NCAP_DISC_ REG Era uoos jo Ors O75 07s 075 O75 O75 075 075 075 raga E ee E E B B a E A A E E A A cenario Parameter Region Process Value Hoo 2 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 115 3 4 Run Model facility additional information In section 2 4 Using Run Model facility to generate files initiate TIMES run Import Results of this Getting Started Manual we have already discussed in detail most aspects of the operation of ANSWER s Run Model facility Here we provide additional information concerning the use of the Specify Model Variant button and of the checkboxes at the bottom of the Run Model form 3 4 1 Specify Model Variant button Model Variant and Objective Function Specification Form When you are ready to move beyond Standard TIMES and start using some of the intermediate advanced TIMES Model Variant Extensions you need to use the Specify Model Variant button in conjunction with the Model Variant and Objective Function Specification form to specify the particular Model Variant Extension ANSWER then automatically ensures that the necessary control switches are inserted into the GEN file that controls the TIMES GAMS run In this subsection we provide an example of the use of the Specify Model Variant button in conjunction w
32. Destination Scenario are both the same both BASE the Origin Region DEMO checkbox will be unchecked and Region IMPEXP will have its checkbox checked indicating that it is the Destination Region for the Copy operation Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 23 MS Copy Item s from Region to Region s Select Origin Scenario Scenario Select Origin Region Region peno Select Destination Scenario for Copy Hove Scenario EASE TinyTIMESModel Select Destination Regions for Copy O CEO H IHMPEXP Select All Deselect All If Region IMPEXP does not appear as one of the Destination Regions for Copy most likely this is because you are using a less recent version of ANSWER TIMES that does not display External Regions as Destination Regions for Copy You will need to create Commodity NGAS in Region IMPEXP by following the instructions in subsection 2 3 5 1 of course at step 2 use the Region combobox to select IMPEXP 3 Click on the OK button and when the following message appears click on Yes Mumber of selected Items suitable for Copy Item s from Region to Regionis Number of selected Items For Copy Ikermts From Region to Regions that occur in the Origin Scenario BASE and the Origin Region DEM is 1 Do you wish bo proceed 4 The Commodity Item NGAS in Region IMPEXP will be created but with Item NGAS in Region DEMO remaining the currently se
33. Imports 447 2072 740 584 1 45 3889 Exports 436 1947 813 583 2 44 3824 Stock Changes 12 2 16 3 0 6 Total Primary Energy 2402 3770 56 2173 591 577 1118 69 10643 Supply Intl Marine Bunkers 146 146 Transfers 104 119 15 Statistical Diff 21 14 8 5 0 0 31 Electricity Plants 1404 28 212 447 578 577 31 1172 2105 CHP Plants 178 1 30 258 13 32 282 229 Heat Plants 62 1 17 86 9 148 28 Gas Works 11 4 8 7 Pet Refineries 3642 3618 0 24 Coal Transformation 155 0 3 0 158 Liquefaction Plants 18 11 0 8 14 Other Transformations 0 30 28 4 44 45 Own Use 45 9 207 201 2 143 606 Distribution Losses 2 3 0 21 145 171 Total Final Consumption 505 11 3043 1153 1000 1384 7095 Industry Sector 382 11 603 515 160 572 2242 Transport Sector 5 O 1746 57 8 20 1837 Other Sectors 106 0 504 580 832 792 2814 Non Energy Use 12 190 201 Other includes solar wind geothermal in the primary section electricity and heat in the use section The Total Final Consumption TFC is equal to the original IEA data but not the Total Primary Energy Supply TPES Here non fossil electricity has been converted to primary equivalent by using the same average fossil efficiency of 38 79 When the physical energy principle is used as the IEA statistical office does nuclear weighs three times more tha
34. Listing in the GAMS LST file for an ANSWER TIMES run 57 2 6 1 Ensuring an Equation Listing in the GAMS LST file for an ANSWER generated TIMES run 57 2 6 1 1 Alternative way of Ensuring an Equation Listing in the GAMS LST file cceeeeeeeeeeees 58 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 5 3 Using ANSWER TIMES to build more sophisticated TIMES models ccccccsseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeseeeeeeeeeaeees 59 3 1 Overview of ANSWER TIMES Demonstration Databases referred to in Section 3 eee 59 3 2 Overview of the different types of ANSWER TIMES Documentation ccc ceccceceeeeeeeeeeeeees 59 3 2 1 ANSWER TIMES Manuals in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 UserManuals c cccccceeeeeeeeees 60 322 ANSWER TIMES Software Update documents in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc 0 60 3 2 3 Documents re use of ANSWER TIMES to work with TIMES Model Variant Extensions 60 3 3 Examining specifying the main components of a TIMES Energy System Model 000008 61 3 31 Data and Results Time Periods Adding and Deleting Time Periods cccccsecceseeeeeeeeees 61 3321 1 Displaying Existing Time Periods and Adding New Time Periods scsccceeeeeeeeeeeees 62 3 3 1 2 Deleting Time Periods from an ANSWER TIMES database ccccccseeccscseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 64 3 3 2 Displaying Existing Regions in an ANSWER TIMES data
35. Management a C 2 3 6 2 Specify Process ECCNGAS in Region DEMO 1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Process form which is similar to the New Commodity form but with the important difference of having an I O Commodities tab Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 28 Mew Process in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Process Check the Region combobox setting Speciy Set Memberships and change Units if necessary Specify 40 Commodities and PCG Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specify parameter data at appropriate ltem Information Scenario BASE TinyTIME Model i Hame Desc l DEMO Set Memberships Units 1 0 Commodities Set Memberships 4 Process PRC F Combined Heat amp Power CHF 5B Demand Device DMD Electric Generation ELE E Energy PRE B Heat Generation HPL E Material by weight PR E Material by volume PRY Miscellaneous MISC Process Activity Units k Process Capacity Units PRC_CAFACT Value Change Units 2 Enter ECCNGAS in the Name textbox accept the current setting of DEMO in the Region combobox and enter Combined cycle Gas Power Plant in the Description textbox so that the Item Information frame appears as follows Item Information Scenario pasr TinyTIMESModel td Name Desc JECCNGAS DEMO ha Combined cycie Gas Power Plant 3
36. Manual 60 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 ANSWER TIMES Manuals in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 UserManuals In the most recent versions of ANSWER TIMES four ANSWER TIMES Manuals are provided in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 UserManuals and may be accessed at any time from the AnswerTIMESv6 exe via the Help menu item These manuals are as follows e ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual pdf manual of 342 pages that documents all ANSWER TIMES features through to version 6 5 5 e ANSWERv6 TIMES Smart Excel Workbook Manual pdf manual of 39 pages that documents an advanced ANSWER TIMES feature the ANSWER TIMES Smart Excel Workbooks Aspects of this manual are specific to Excel 2003 e ANSWERv6 TIMES Smart Excel Workbook Manual Excel 2007 and higher pdf manual of 40 pages that documents an advanced ANSWER TIMES feature the ANSWER TIMES Smart Excel Workbooks This manual is very similar to the previous manual but in places is updated to Excel 2007 and higher e Using VEDA BE with ANSWER TIMES pdf manual of 24 pages created to assist ANSWER TIMES users who are using the VEDA BE software for their results analysis ANSWER TIMES Software Update documents in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc Each time an ANSWER TIMES software update is released there is an accompanying ANSWER TIMES Software Update document that contains information about new TIMES features that are supported and also about any new ANSWER TIMES facilities that may have been intro
37. Market Trade Processes as compared with Bilateral Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES that are not contained in Section 16 of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual Below we reproduce the recommendations regarding the use of Market Trade Processes When using ANSWER TIMES to specify a Trade Process that involves e Exporting a commodity commodities from an external region e g region IMPEXP to an internal region regions or e Exporting a commodity commodities from an internal region regions to an external region e g region IMPEXP it is recommended that the Type of Trade be specified as Market Trade rather than Bilateral Trade with the Market Region being the external region e g region IMPEXP The reason for this recommendation is that the use of the ANSWER TIMES Market Trade specification allows a single Trade Process to handle export to from multiple internal regions whereas with the Bilateral Trade specification a single Trade Process can handle export to from only a single internal region Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 105 3 3 9 Constraint Tab User Constraints amp associated Data Parameters In subsection 2 3 8 Constraint Tab specify User Constraints amp associated Data Parameters we observed that while the tiny TIMES model does not contain any User Constraints virtually all TIMES models do contain User Constraints These User Constraints Constraint Items must be specified o
38. NCAP_AF E31 SP UP 0 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 24 NCAP_AF E31 SU UP 0 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 25 NCAP_AF E31 WI UP 0 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 7 26 NCAP_COST E31 0 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 27 NCAP_FOM E31 0 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 26 NCAP_TLIFE E31 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Pll 30 ACT COST E41 0 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 31 ACT_EFF E41 GAS ANNUAL 0 0 5402 0 5402 0 5599 0 5599 0 5599 0 5599 0 5599 32 FLO EMIS E41 C02 GAS ANNUAL 0 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 33 NCAP_AF E41 ANNUAL UP 0 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 34 NCAP_BND E41 UP 0 0 null null null null null null nu a2 NCAP_CEH E41 0 0 2045 0 2045 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 36 NCAP_CHPR_ E41 UP 0 0 9778 0 9778 0 9778 0 9778 0 9778 0 9778 0 9778 3 NCAP_COST E41 0 690 690 660 660 660 660 660 38 NCAP_FOM E41 0 35 35 33 33 33 33 33 39 NCAP _TLIFE E41 0 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 40 3 7 5 Summary of the Operation of the Import Model Data from Excel facility As already noted above section 2 10 Importing Model Data from Excel in ANSWER TIMES in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual contains a detailed description of the Import Model Data from Excel facility A brief summary of the operation of this facility is as follows Prepare Excel Workbook s containing model data to be bulk loaded Open the target ANSWER TIMES database and invoke File Import Model Data from Excel to bring up the Import Model Data from Excel form This form is shown be
39. Pty Ltd 2014 80 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 81 3 3 7 3 3 7 1 3 3 7 2 Process Tab Processes amp associated Data Parameters In Section 2 of this Getting Started manual we detailed what was involved in specifying a tiny TIMES model that comprised just three processes an import process IMPNGAS a simple electricity generating process ECCNGAS and a simple demand device RELCHPUMP In this subsection we examine the main types of TIMES processes and provide concrete examples of how to use ANSWER TIMES to specify most of the categories of TIMES processes that are required to build sophisticated TIMES models Then we consider important aspects of the specification of the generic TIMES Standard Process including contrasting simple TIMES processes with flexible TIMES processes and providing concrete examples that focus on how to use the ACT_EFF parameter to specify overall efficiencies and fuel specific efficiencies for output based and input based processes Concrete examples of all of the processes that are discussed in this subsection are contained in non BASE scenario TPROCESSES of demonstration database Example4 with Processes mdb The Main Types of TIMES Processes As noted at page 17 of Documentation for the TIMES Model Part II authors Loulou Remme Kanudia Lehtila and Goldstein that can be downloaded as TIMESDoc Details pdf from the ETSAP website www iea etsap org TIMES dis
40. SUD BASE TS_PARENT REG SUD Su 1 rs a a 4 Enter an appropriate numeric value for G_YRFR for each Internal Region for TimeSlice SUD in the Value column e g perhaps enter 0 125 Similarly define new DAYNITE level TimeSlices of SUN Summer Night FAD Fall Day and FAN Fall Night SPD Spring Day and SPN Spring Night and WID Winter Day and WIN Winter Night 3 3 4 3 Specifying the Global Ordering of TimeSlices at Each TimeSlice Level The TIMES GAMS code requires the specification of SET ALL_TS that specifies the global ordering of all of the TimeSlice Names used in the model at each of the TimeSlice Levels This ordering is needed for TIMES models that involve storage processes ANSWER TIMES makes it easy for the user to specify the global ordering of TimeSlice Names by providing the File Edit Global TimeSlice Order SET ALL_TS facility that when invoked brings up the following form Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 73 Edit Global TimeSlice Order by TimeSlice Level For each TimeSlice Level Seasonal Weekly DayNite use the Up Dn butttons to alter the TimeSlice Order used for SET ALL_TS Seasonal Weekly DayHite SP Spring Spring Day SU Summer Spring Hight F Fall Summer Day Winter Summer Hight Fall Dap Fall Might winter Day Winter Might For full details regarding the specification of the global ordering of TimeSlice Names refer to the follow
41. Specify the Set Memberships by clicking on the Electric Generation ELE leaf node leaf nodes have icon Dy in the tree view and accepting Annual Time Slice Level as the selected radio button under Additional Characterization Set Memberships Units 170 Commodities Comment Set Memberships 4 Process PAC ES Combined Heat amp Power CHF Annual Time Slice Level mE Demand Device DMD Seasonal Time Slice Level ven le Electric Generation ELE Weekly Time Slice Level E Energy PRE Day Night Time Slice Level EL Heat Generation HPL I Distribution System DISTR HE Material by weight PRM T Import Export RE L Miselne SC T Night Storage NST Storage not NST or STK STGTSS 4 Accept the default Process Activity Capacity Units of petajoules gigawatts and the default PRC_CAPACT value of 31 536 The New Process form appears as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 29 Mew Process in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Process Check the Region combobox setting Specify Set Memberships and change Unita if necessary Specify 10 Commodities and PCG Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specity parameter data as appropriate Item Information Scenario p ase TinyTIMESModel i Name Desc JECCNGAS DEMO Combined cpcle Gas Power Plant eee Set Memberships Units 1 0 Commodities S Set Memberships o Process PRC
42. Specifying a Mining Extraction Process cccccssseecccceeseeeecceeeeececeeuseeessueneeeeeeuaeeeeesssaneeess 81 3 3 7 3 Specifying an Electric Power Plant ELE acron 83 3 3 7 4 Specifying a District Heating Plant APL ciceisdvcaneeei denies etic iam etn 84 3 3 7 5 Specifying a Combined Heat amp Power Plant CHP nnnnannnnnnnnnnnnsnnnnnnsnnnnnnsnnnnnnnnnnnnsnnnnen 86 3 3 7 6 Specifying a Dual purpose Demand Device PIrOCeSs c cccccceceeeceeceseceeseeeeeseeecesseneeeeas 88 3 3 7 7 TIMES Data Parameters Applying Only to Not Applying to Types of TIMES Processes 89 3 3 7 8 Some Important Aspects of Specifying a TIMES Standard Process sscccceeeeeeeeeeees 90 3 3 7 9 Contrasting Simple TIMES Processes with Flexible TIMES Processes cccccseeeeeees 91 3 3 7 10 Case 1 Process ECCNGAS output based 1 input 1 output overall efficiency 93 3 3 7 11 Case 2 Process SREFO004 output based 1 input 2 outputs one overall efficiency 94 3 3 7 12 Case 3 Process EDSLTUR output based 2 inputs 1 output input specific efficiencies 95 3 3 7 13 Case 4 Process SREFO06 output based 1 input 2 outputs output specific efficiencies 96 3 3 7 14 Case 5 Process SREFO05 input based 1 input 2 outputs one overall efficiency 97 3 3 8 TradeProcess Tab Trade Processes amp associated Data Parametels cccccseeeeeeeeeeees 98 3 3 8 1 Trade Processes in de
43. Started Manual 69 empty the Region combobox may not be set to REG the TimeSlice Level will not be specified and the Parent TimeSlice combobox and the Global TimeSlice Order listview will be empty E Sew TimeSlice in scenario BASE ea Create New TimeSlice Enter Hame Region and Description for the new TimeSlice Specify TimeSlice Level change Global TimeSlice Order if necessary and specity Parent TimeSlice Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specify G_ YRFR data value s MOTE Database has the Same TimeSlices in Every Region so TimeSlice Changes Apply in All Regions X TimeSlice Information Scenario BASE TimeSliceCreation Name Region Description fa ooo ee a TimeSlice Level Global TimeSlice Order mt me tes ete E Annual ANNUAL Seasonal SEASON Weekly WEEKLY i FE Dap Might DAyNITE Parent TimeSlice Seasonal Time Slice must have ANNUAL as Parent TimeSlice ANNUAL Annual 2 Enter FA and Fall in the Name and Description textboxes respectively set the Region combobox to REG and click on Seasonal SEASON to select the SEASON TimeSlice Level The Parent TimeSlice combobox will automatically adjust to ANNUAL since ANNUAL is the only possible Parent TimeSlice for a SEASON TimeSlice The Global TimeSlice Order listview will automatically appear as above 3 Click on the OK button and new SEASON level TimeSlice of FA Fall will be created in each Internal Region here just R
44. Stock Changes 12 22 16 15 0 41 TPES 1498 2880 47 980 52 319 673 9 6363 Intl Marine Bunkers 119 119 Transfers 43 49 5 Statistical Diff 0 12 7 5 0 9 Electricity Plants 557 23 318 159 52 319 3 499 932 CHP Plants 88 28 51 0 1 101 67 Heat Plants 9 1 1 1 7 5 Gas Works 9 1 9 14 5 Pet Refineries 2800 2773 28 Coal Transf 169 1 3 0 0 171 Liquefaction Plants 2 0 1 Other Transf 4 5 0 11 13 Own Use 34 3 162 107 0 58 364 Distribution Losses 7 7 0 8 43 65 TEC 622 21 2121 672 657 516 4608 Industry Sector 358 16 556 381 99 amp 277 1686 Transport Sector 33 905 18 10 966 Other Sectors 226 528 273 559 amp 228 1814 Non Energy Use 5 4 132 141 amp split assumed by the author Other includes solar wind geothermal in the primary section electricity and heat in the use section The Total Final Consumption is equal to the original IEA data the Total Primary Energy Supply is not because here all non fossil electricity has been converted to primary equivalent by using the same average fossil efficiency of 38 79 When the physical energy principle is used as the IEA statistical office does nuclear weighs three times more than hydro although its electric output is nearly the same a The methodology of energy balances is well explained in chapter 7 of the Ener
45. TIMES pdf located in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 UserManuals provides detailed instructions on how to use VEDA BE to examine the results from an ANSWER TIMES initiated TIMES GAMS run Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 120 3 7 Bulk Loading Model Data into ANSWER TIMES via Import Model Data from Excel facility ANSWER TIMES has an Import Model Data from Excel facility that allows the user the convenience of bulk loading TIMES model data specified in Excel Worksheets into a scenario of an existing ANSWER TIMES database Model data specified in Excel Worksheets may include e Internal External Regions e Item information Name Description Units Set Memberships e Time Series and Time Independent Data for Regions e Time Series and Time Independent Data for Trade between Regions If desired a multi region TIMES model in its entirety may be loaded into the BASE scenario of a newly created empty ANSWER TIMES database via Import Model Data from Excel e The ANSWER TIMES database into which model data is imported must have Data Time Periods compatible with the Time Series Data in the Excel Worksheets The Import Model Data from Excel facility recognizes two different types of Excel Workbooks Standard Excel Workbooks and Smart Excel Workbooks In this Getting Started Manual we will not discuss ANSWER TIMES Smart Excel Workbooks if you are interested in them co
46. TIMES GAMS run As noted at the end of subsection 2 4 2 after completion of a TIMES GAMS run and automatic import of results into the ANSWER TIMES database the Case that has just been run is automatically added to the Selected Cases display Results Management ases Selected Cases Name Description Created BASETINY TinyTIMESModel BASE 2012 06 05 22 43 Imported amp BASETINY TinyTIMESModel Base Scenari 2012 06 05 22 43 lt lt lt Import View LST View OC Delete Edit Results Results tab Syne Scen Database C AnswerlIMESv6 4nswer_Databases T inyTIMESModel mdb Edit Scenario BASE h Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 53 The mechanics of examining results for Case s where import of results into the ANSWER TIMES database has occurred are as follows 1 Ensure that the Selected Cases display contains the Case s whose results are to be viewed You can do this by using the Case selection buttons or to move Case s in the Cases display across to the Selected Cases display and you can use the Case selection buttons M or Ito remove Case s from the Selected Cases display 2 Click on the Results button below the Selected Cases display Sync Scen Edit Scenario BASE 4b 3 The Results Screen will be displayed for the Parameter tab initially for the setting All Results Parameters The Results Paramete
47. Units 5 Click on the Traded Commodities tab This part of the New Trade Process form initially appears as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 40 Where the Commodity being traded has the Same Mame in All Regions a Trade Process may trade a number of different Commodities Specify the Traded Commodities below and then move to the Trade Matix tab to specify the Trade Matix for each Traded Commodity TW TTT TT TW TTT T Add Comm J Remove Comm Specify TM Trade Matrix Same as Master Use Add Remove Comm buttons to add remove Traded Commodities In this Getting Started Manual our focus is simply on using the Traded Commodities tab to specify that Commodity NGAS is the Commodity being traded We do not discuss other advanced facilities such as the Master Trade Matrix facility 7 To specify that NGAS is the Commodity being traded click on the Add Comm button to bring up the Trade Commodity Selection form that displays only Commodities of Type NRG and select NGAS MS Trade Commodity Selection NRG multi select allowed E Electricity HM atural Gas NAG then click on OK The top of the Traded Commodities tab now appears as follows A i EE Where the Commodity being traded has the Same Name in All Regions a Trade Process may trade a number of different Commodities Specify the Traded Commodities below and then move to the Trade Matix ta
48. adjustments then 8 Click on the OK button and new SEASON level TimeSlice of SU Summer will be created in each Internal Region here just REG and in the special GLOBAL Region Also both TS_ PARENT and G_YRFR Seasonal fraction of the year parameter instances are created for each Internal Region here just REG for TimeSlice SU Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 71 Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter f Sets Named rai Time Slices ALL_TS Sets Filter Named Filter B ANNUAL IMPEXP Annual ae Time Slice Sets ANNUAL MINRNW Annual ANNUAL REG Annual New Copy Delete Edit F _GLOBAL Fall l Select All Items Hove RES Ll FA REG Fall SU _GLOBAL Summer B su REG Summer Subset Parameters Time Slice Specific TID data 2 Scenario Parameter Region TimeSlic TimeSlice Vale O E a E L BASE TS PARENT PREG SU ANNUAL badd BASE Tt 9 Enter an appropriate numeric value for G_YRFR for each Internal Region for TimeSlice SU in the Value column e g perhaps enter 0 25 Similarly define new SEASON level TimeSlices of SP Spring and WI Winter 3 3 4 2 Creation of DAYNITE TimeSlices Once all of the SEASON level TimeSlices have been defined you are ready to begin defining the DAYNITE level TimeSlices To define a new DAYNITE level T
49. computer e If you encounter a reference to a database that is not available on your computer and where the database name is not of the form Example4 v66n mdb contact Dr Ken Noble of Noble Soft Systems noblesoft netspeed com au who will be able to provide you with the database 3 3 Examining specifying the main components of a TIMES Energy System Model Below we use the ANSWER TIMES demonstration databases Example4 mdb Utopia_Demo_UC mdb and Example4 with Processes mdb to provide concrete examples of the main components of a TIMES energy system model which are e Data and Results Time Periods e Internal and External Regions e Global Data Parameters specified and displayed on the Global Tab e Time Slices including Sub Annual TimeSlices and their associated Data Parameters specified and displayed on the TimeSliceTab e Commodities and their associated Data Parameters specified and displayed on the Commodity Tab e Commodity Groups displayed and sometimes specified on the CommGroup Tab e Processes and their associated Data Parameters specified and displayed on the Process Tab e Trade Processes and their associated Data Parameters specified and displayed on the TradeProcess Tab e User Constraints and their associated Data Parameters specified and displayed on the Constraint Tab In addition there is a discussion of the following ANSWER TIMES feature e The special role of the Parameter tab in ANSWER TIME
50. e a e E E E AO 13 4 2 5 Connections the Reference Energy System ccccccsseecceccseeseeeeeeeeeeeeeessaeeeeeeesaeeeess 13 4 3 The systems analysis approach quantification ccccceesceeceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesaeeeeeseeseeeeeneenens 16 4 3 1 Flows of energy commodities cceeccecccseeeeceeceeeeeeeeeeeeeseeeeeeaeaeeeeeeseaeeeeeseaeseeeeessaaees 16 4 3 2 Energy technology and end use devices cccccseeecceeeeeeeseeeeeeaeeeeeeeesaeeeeeeessauseeeesaaess 18 4 3 3 EMIS SION a a E E E E AA 20 4 3 4 Quantifying the economic dimension of the SYStOM ccccceeseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeeas 22 4 4 The systems analysis approach control cccceccecseeeecceeeeeeceeeeeeeseeeeeesegeeesaeeeeeseeeeeesseeeeeens 26 4 4 1 Preparation of the mental experiments ccccccseseeecseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeeeeeseaeeeeeas 26 4 4 1 1 Representation of the system in a model ececcecseeeeceeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeaaeees 26 4 4 1 2 Uncontrollable and controllable exogenous variables ccccccseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 28 4 4 1 3 ODIECIVES AN TANG CtS ronio E ia iad eect dasaustiob sal E 29 4 4 1 4 Policies instruments and specific measures as control variables ccce 30 4 4 2 Carrying out the mental experiments scenarios cecccceceseeseeeeeeeeeeeeeesaeeeeeeesaeeeeees 31 4 4 3 Robust and hedging StrateGiesS ccccccccsssssceccceeseeeeeeceeesececesaaeeeeeesea
51. e g to turn a shaft or to provide light than the 43 kg of 20 C water Another more technical example should help clarify the difference Furnaces used to heat buildings are typically 70 to 80 efficient with the latest best performing condensing furnaces operating at efficiencies greater than 90 This may suggest that little energy savings should be possible considering the high first law efficiencies of furnaces Such a conclusion is incorrect The quoted efficiency is based on the specific process being used to operate the furnace combustion of fossil ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A6 fuel to produce heat Because the combustion temperatures in a furnace are significantly higher than those desired for the energy service of space heating the service is not well matched to the source and the result is an inefficient application of the device and fuel Rather than focusing on the efficiency of a given technique for the provision of the energy service of space heating one needs to investigate the theoretical limits of the efficiency of supplying heat to a building based on the actual temperature regime between the desired room temperature and the heat supplied by a technology The ratio of theoretical minimum energy consumption for a particular task to the actual energy consumption for the same task is called second law of thermodynamics efficiency Consider another example providing a temperature of 27 C
52. features of the Run Model form using the tiny TIMES model as a concrete example Having carried out the run BASETINY as in subsection 2 4 2 if we again click on the Run Model button we will see that the top part of the Run Model form appears as follows Run Model Hodel Run Details Name Eisai Change Aun Description TinyTIMESModel Base Scenario Run Comment iy a Model Variant Specity Model Variant es TIMES Speciy Milestone rears Scenarios comprising this rur Mame Description Mie oia CH EASE Ting TIME SModel 2012705 730 23 44 Note that the Run Model form has BASETINY in the Name textbox and Tiny TIMES Model Base Scenario Run in the Description textbox In fact whenever we carry out a model run the settings for the run are saved in the ANSWER TIMES database And when we invoke the Run Model facility the Run Model form is populated with the saved settings for the model run that was most recently carried out In the part of the Run Model form that is displayed above there are six important features 1 Change Run button Name and Description textboxes Specify Model Variant button and associated textbox to the right Specify Milestone Years button Scenarios comprising this run display and associated Add Remove Up and Dn buttons 6 Regions button aS We consider each of these in turn in subsections 2 4 3 1 to 2 4 3 6 respectively Subsection 2 4 3
53. form but also important differences Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 38 E New Trade Process in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Trade Process Specify Type of Trade and Commodity Type and Naming Specify Set Memberships and change Units if necessary Use Traded Commodities and or Trade Matrix tabs to specify Traded Commodities Item Information Scenario 5 ASF TinyTIMESModel Name Desc l Type of Trade Commodity Type and Naming Bilateral Trade Market Trade Market Region DEMO Type NRG V Same Commodity Name in All Regions Set Memberships Units Traded Commodities Set Memberships Trade Process F Electric Generation ELE F Energy PRE B Material by weight PR B Material by volume PRY B Miscellaneous MISC Process Activity Units zj Process Capacity U nits O PRC_CAPACT Value Change Unit Note The default setting for Type of Trade was Bilateral Trade for versions of ANSWER TIMES prior to version 6 8 1 Since version 6 8 1 the default setting for Type of Trade has been Market Trade with the default Market Region set to whichever Internal or External region is highest in alphabetical order 2 Enter IMPNGAS in the Name textbox and enter Import Natural Gas in the Description textbox so that the Item Information frame appears as follows Item Information Scenario Base
54. function of each of these checkboxes are provided in subsection 6 1 4 Assorted Run Model Checkbox Options of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual However for most purposes the settings of the leftmost 5 checkboxes that are displayed above are fine though already in previous subsections we have made use of the Edit GAMS Control File checkbox and the function of these 5 checkboxes will not be discussed here So far as the settings of the rightmost 4 checkboxes are concerned we make the following observations e Where you want to import results for a model run into ANSWER TIMES the settings displayed above are usually fine but with one caveat instead of running with the Suppress Pure Zero Time Series Results O14 o4hox checked you might prefer to run with this checkbox unchecked This is particularly so when you are first becoming acquainted with TIMES and with ANSWER TIMES since with the unchecked setting the Time Series Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 118 results parameter instances that are created will include those where every numeric value iS Zero e A TIMES GAMS run that is initiated from ANSWER TIMES always generates the files that VEDA BE needs for its results processing regardless of whether the setting for the M Create Results For Import into ANSWER checkbox is checked or unchecked Even if most of the time you prefer to use VEDA BE for your results analysis you may still fi
55. gt 6 Mb Keauargn20Lution for model TIMES Reading with solevopt REPLACE lt b TIMES Solve status Optimal BASETINY GEN 41766 gt 3 Mb Putfile SCREEN C AnswerT IMESv6 Gamse_WrkTI CON Putfile END GANS C SAnswerT INESv6 5Gams_WekII END_GANMS _STA Putfile Q LOG C AnswerTI MNESv6 Gams_WrkTI QA_CHECK LOG Putfile SOLDUMNP C AnswerT IMESv6 Gans_Wehe eect epet Putfile sola C AnswerTI MNESv6 Gamse_WrkT amp BASETINY ANT BASETINY GEN 41766 gt 3 Mb GDA File C AnswerT IT MESv6 Gams_WekT I qamssave BASETIMY gdx Profile Summary 3178 records processed 4 63 H AAGE 5454 Assignment SHAPE H gt 4 616 4H HQ9GE 15534 Assignment ITRE_FLOSUMN tH 4 616 4H HQ9GE 19196 Loop 4 616 4H HQ9GE 34945 GANS Fini 4 615 4H HQ9GE 32667 Equation EQL_MRKCON lt gt 4 615 H AAS GE 1666 Assignment ANSAGE_AGE 2HH gt 4 8615 4H HQ9GE 16919 IF ELS amp SE 4 815 4 HQ3GEK 36752 Put BASETINY GEN 41766 gt 3 Mb Status Normal completion Job BASETINY GEM Stop 66716712 86 63 35 elapsed 6 66 68 146 GDA File Symbols 1257 UELs 1147 VEDA Cube Dimensions 8 Entries 54 Text 1 SubSets 23 VEDA Cube DataKecords 156 VEDA Cube TextRecords 880 VEDA Cube SubSRecords 18 aoe ANSWER TIMES GAMS run ended Note the occurrence of BASETINY the Name of the model run in filenames associated with the run e g BASETINY GEN and BASETINY ANT circled in red above 5 Since we accepted the default setting of checked for the I Import Res
56. might be in the range of half of the theoretical limit In addition further improvements in the efficiency of supplying services are possible by task changes for instance reducing the thermal heat losses of the building to be heated via better insulated walls and windows There are many difficulties and definitional ambiguities involved in estimating the efficiencies according to the second thermodynamic principle for comprehensive energy source to service chains or entire energy systems The analysis of individual conversion devices is comparatively simpler than the analysis of energy systems efficiencies to useful energy or even to energy services All indicate that primary to service second law efficiencies are as low as a few percent An overall primary to useful energy second law efficiency of 21 has been estimated for Japan less than 15 for Italy 32 for Brazil which reduces to 23 when primary energy to service second law efficiency are estimated 2 5 for the United States Other estimates of global and regional primary to service energy second law efficiencies vary from ten to as low as a few percent The theoretical potential for efficiency improvements is very large current energy systems are nowhere close to the maximum levels suggested by the second law of thermodynamics However the full realization of this potential is impossible Friction resistance and similar losses can never be totally avoided In addition there are nu
57. non polluters tax redistribution issues Emission Cap and trade systems global or partial coverage multiple bubbles etc Hybrid system caps ceiling on emission price Emission intensity standards and regulations Internalising environmental externalities Alternative allocations of emission rights to regions sectors lumped allocations versus output based allocations and e Energy intensive materials amp urban solid waste management But transforming any of the above types of policy instruments into a particular measure is not easy because of the long term implications far beyond the specific target pursued And in all these circumstances there are hard questions to be addressed What is a reasonable balance between domestic mitigation and purchase of emission permits What is the cost of complying with national regional targets What is the cost of reducing acid deposition emissions to comply with your regional targets 4 4 2 Carrying out the mental experiments scenarios As mentioned before scenarios explore different development paths of the system in the space of possible future events They all share the same starting point the actual energy system as quantified by existing statistical information and their integration They assume different development of either the uncontrollable variable alternative scenarios or the controllable ones policy scenarios or both The mental experiments traditionally follow this s
58. of diesel Type of Trade Commodity Type and Naming Bilateral Trade o f Market Trade Market Region IMPEXP Type NRG J Same Commodity Name in All Regions See Set Memberships Units Ki Traded Commodities s Trade Matin _ Set Memberships E Trade Process cas EL Electric Generation ELE Annual Time Slice Level ie Energy PRE C Seasonal Time Slice Level E Material by weight PRW Weekly Time Slice Level E Material by volume PRY C Day Night Time Slice Level B Miscellaneous MISC 7 Extraction TRACT I Import E port IRE 7 Renewable RENEW Process Actrity Units petajoules b Process Capacity Unite petajoules annum PRC_CAPACT Value fi Change Units 2 Click on the Traded Commodities tab circled above and Use the Add Comm button to bring up the Trade Commodity Selection form Select DSL as the Commodity being traded Click on OK to exit the Trade Commodity Selection form The top of the Traded Commodities tab will appear as follows A LLO Set Memberships Units Traded Commodities AO Trade Matrix eee Where the Commodity being traded has the Same Name in All Regions a Trade Process may trade a number of different Commodities Specity the Traded Commodities below and then move to the Trade Matrix tab to specify the Trade Matis for each Traded Commodity Diesel Traded a pe Trade Matrix Master Trade H See ee MAG E Ej m E 3 Click on the Trad
59. or negligibly influenced by policies and measures Other exogenous variables such as the discount rate the prices of energy goods the efficiency of the devices available on the market or emission ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A29 standards strongly depend on policies and measures For the purpose of controlling the system it is useful to distinguish the exogenous variables in uncontrollable and controllable The level of controllability of the energy system depends on the number and importance of the state variables that are influenced directly or indirectly by the control exogenous variables The most important set of exogenous assumptions for economic growth models in general and technical economic models in particular are the characterization of technological change Different assumptions on technical and economic progresses of commercially existing and new technologies determine quite different development paths of energy systems The technological innovation in the energy sector is only partly controllable through R amp D policies learning by searching while the deployment of new and better technologies is more affected by long term policies on information and regulation tax and subsidies A related set of exogenous assumptions is the amount of energy reserves and ultimate resources Here too something that should be uncontrollable by definition such as the ultimate oil resources produces variabl
60. parameters are shown in the table below Standard Process All IRE_ and STG_ parameters Type of Process TIMES Data Parameters that apply only to TIMES Data Parameters that cannot this Type of Process be used for this Type of Process not CHP Process Combined Heat amp NCAP_CEH NCAP_CHPR Power Process Parameters NCAP_CEFF NCAP_BPME are CHP associated with a very old TIMES CHP implementation and should not be used Inter regional IRE_BND IRE_FLO IRE_FLOSUM IN Exchange Trade IRE_FLOSUM OUT IRE_PRICE IRE_XBND Process IRE Storage Process STG STGIN_BND STGOUT_BND STG_CHRG STG_EFF STG_LOSS NCAP_CEH NCAP_CHPR All IRE_ and STG_ parameters ACT_EFF ACT_FLO FLO_FR FLO_FUNC FLO_SUM FLO_SHAR NCAP_CEH NCAP_CHPR UC_FLO STG_ ACT_EFF ACT_FLO FLO_CUM FLO SUM FLO_SHAR NCAP_CEH NCAP_CHPR IRE_ FLO_BND FLO_FR FLO_FUNC UC_FLO only for auxiliary flows 1 As at version 6 8 1 the ANSWER TIMES interface does not prevent the user from associating a data parameter with a type of process that breaks the rules displayed in the above table 2 We have distinguished Combined Heat amp Power CHP Processes from Standard TIMES Processes purely because there are a number of TIMES Data Parameters that apply only to CHP Processes Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 90 3 3 7 8 Some Important Aspects of Specifying a TIMES Standard Process In
61. proceed to the three steps of the analysis identification quantification and control It is intended to illustrate how complex energy related matters are it hints to the complexity of decision making in energy related matters and it shows why it helps to use ETSAP Tools to represent energy systems and compile alternative development scenarios Contents 4 Appendix A Getting Started with the Problem Defining and Describing the Area of Study 1 4 1 The multiple dimensions of energy systems cccccsseeeecceeseeeceeseeecseseenseeeessageeessanseesseass 2 4 1 1 Energy from primary resource to end use Services ssssssssesssserrrrrrteesrrrrtrrrresrren nne 2 4 1 2 Engineering technology efficiency and system efficiency ssssseenenereessrrnrrrresnrrnnn 4 4 1 3 Economics the value of energy SYSTEMS ccccceecceccssseeeceseeeceaseeceeaseeessaseeessanseeseass 6 4 1 4 EMISSIONS andthe environment serrera spaan a rE EE 7 4 2 The systems analysis approach identification of the areas of StUCY ccccseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 8 4 2 1 SCODE Ore ANALYSIS seeyan SuGesaaez oetesagusdasatesseionuenaaeeuseien 8 4 2 2 BOOMING oo N patemssaeocaetaeedefezacienee ates uiessasioaeeseenia 9 4 2 3 Tne imme GIMME IIS ION sessa a 9 4 2 3 1 TOSNO eeen aN 9 4 2 3 2 Mme granula ysa e EE E E ONS 10 4 2 4 COMPONETS moscia O e eens check eeettSeauaaceeeden 12 4 2 4 1 SONMMMO CICS rase a a e 12 4 2 4 2 I CCAMOIOOISS nenie
62. public goods whose values are not given by the market but have to be assessed from subjective evaluations Quotes from the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis February 2007 ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A8 The acidification of the soil is due to the air emissions of sulphur oxides nitrogen oxides and partly ammonia Over 90 of sulphur and nitrogen oxides are emitted from energy systems Local pollution mainly urban originates from anomalous concentrations of carbon monoxide volatile organic compounds particulate matter sulphur and nitrogen oxides About 90 of carbon monoxide emissions originate from energy systems mainly transport and about 60 of volatile organic compounds Decoupling the benefits of using energy from its disadvantages so far has been partly successful only in the case of sulphur oxides with some improvements in for nitrogen oxides volatile organic compounds and particulate matters Decoupling carbon dioxide emissions from the use of energy remains the major environmental issue of energy systems analyses 4 2 The systems analysis approach identification of the areas of study The identification of the system is the first step towards its formal representation in models and their use for carrying out mental experiments aimed at exploring how the system might evolve under different circumstances and h
63. removal e Assessing bundles of competing and or of complementary technologies rather than stand alone evaluations e Evaluating the impact of technological progress and aids to research development and deployment learning by doing learning by researching e Calculating supply and demand cost curves and e Adding a dynamic dimension to Life cycle Analysis LCA cradle to grave Examples of measures in the field of energy policy are e Mandatory micro measures in each sector building code building retrofit programs modal split incentives in freight and passenger transports energy efficiency programs etc vehicle standards e Energy taxes investment subsidies green and white certificates clean efficient technologies e Energy security evaluation e g measured by oil gas nuclear fuel imports energy options evaluation e Fuel and technology mixes in general e Education information and e Social constraints e g nuclear Examples of measures in the field of environment emissions and climate change mitigation decision making are 3 The methodologies offered by ETSAP support these sorts of analyses and provide policy makers with evaluations as to whether a target is feasible how much it costs in terms of the other objectives and as explained below what technical economic paths are required to achieve each target ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A31 Emission taxes incentives to
64. single commodity that is a member of the PCG of the process is allowed in the CommGroup position and we define one such ACT_EFF parameter instance for each of DSL and GSL as follows Scenario Parameter __ Region Process Cypssepeemminaalt items ite Ie 1990 2000 2mo 2015 2020 PM TPROCESSES ACT_EFF REG SREFODGM DSL ANNUAL o 0 9000 0 9000 0 3000 O 9000 o sooo REG SREFOORQ GSL ANNUAL O 0 9800 0 9800 0 9800 0 9800 0 9800 _ Contrast this with process SREF004 above where a single ACT_EFF parameter instance with input commodity OIL in the CommGroup position is used to specify an overall efficiency For the mathematically inclined If we initiate a model run such that the associated GAMS LST file contains an Equation Listing see section 2 6 1 and then once an optimal solution has been obtained click on the View LST button and use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of EQE_ACTEFF that contains SREF006 we will find the following equation ROR ACTEFF REG 2000 2000 SREF006 NRG IN ANNUAL 1 11111111111111 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREFO06 DSL ANNUAL 1 02040816326531 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREFO06 GSL ANNUAL VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF006 OIL ANNUAL E 0 A simple rearrangement of this equation yields VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREFO06 OIL ANNUAL E 1 11111111111111 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF006 DSL ANNUAL 1 0204081632653
65. specify appropriate FLO_FUNC and perhaps also FLO SUM parameter instances And or specify appropriate ACT FLO instances And specify appropriate FLO_EMIS FLO_EFF instances For flexible process only Specify one or more FLO_SHAR parameter instances Limit share that a commodity can or lt or gt involving the commodity and its input output have of its input output commodity commodity group group 3 3 7 9 Contrasting Simple TIMES Processes with Flexible TIMES Processes For practical purposes including understanding how to properly associate ACT _EFF parameter instance s with various categories of TIMES Standard Processes it can be useful to split Standard Processes into two sub categories Simple Processes that have just one input commodity and one output commodity involved in the primary process transformation and where the operation of the process results in a given amount of the output commodity being produced from each unit of the input commodity For a simple process it is a simple matter to specify the efficiency via the ACT_EFF parameter as we have already seen in Section 2 for the processes ECCNGAS and RELCHPUMP Flexible Processes that have multiple input commodities and or multiple output commodities involved in the primary process transformation and where there may be genuine flexibility in the way in which the multiple inputs combine to produce the multiple outputs For some flexible processes specifying the ef
66. stock of technologies Normally the reporting categories do not match and when they do quantities calculated from energy flows and unit emission coefficients do not coincide with the values reported by environment statistics Here too it takes time to understand what different assumptions cause any discrepancies and what average values makes the quantitative characterization consistent from all points of view 12 See for instance the important assessment provided by the International Energy Agency with the Energy Technologies Perspective 2006 report and the underlying global model ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A21 Emissions in kilotonnes except CO in megatonnes Se aaa Combustion plants 50 mw aol 29 a a 19 E i E E S E O l p 25 i Se S E E E 10205 a es ee ee ee ee E ee COMMERCIAL INSTITUTIONAL amp RESIDENTIAL COMBUSTION ar ae es gow further subdivided e Se ET A L a ee ee eS A E A 30004 Stationary engines SSS a a a E E E eo ee ee O GROUP 3 INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION 30100 Ind Combus In boilers gas turbines amp station Engines S010 Plants 300 mw Cire 3 sao 30102 Plants gt 50 mw and 300 mw 1236 274 9 7 586 180 6 amp 6 50103 Plants 350 mw zo sa 31 23 esaj sse is E E E OCC Stationary engines l4 3 3 eee 30200 Process furmaces without contact Refinery processes fumaces now 10306 30202 Coke oven imaces now 10406 30203
67. subsections 3 3 7 2 to 3 3 7 6 above we have provided concrete examples of how to use ANSWER TIMES to specify most of the categories of TIMES processes that are required to build sophisticated TIMES models In this subsection we aim to provide a generic overview of some of the most important aspects of specifying a TIMES Standard Process made more concrete by identifying the TIMES Data Parameters that are needed As part of specifying any TIMES Standard Process we need to do the following e Specify the input commodity commodities and the output commodity commodities e Specify the commodity or group of commodities that define the activity of the process As the term activity suggests the activity measures the production or consumption of a process This is done by defining the activity of a process equal to a subset of either input or output flows of the process Accordingly processes can be described as input or output based The activity of a process is limited by the available capacity Thus by choosing the commodities that define the activity of the process one also decides whether the capacity is measured in terms of input or output flows For example if for a power plant one chooses electricity to be the commodity defining the activity the capacity will also be measured in terms of output electricity production e g GW electricity A crude oil distillation unit at a refinery is an example of a process which is often modelled
68. the GEN file for the model run is provided by the Model Variant and Objective Function Specification form see the Objective Function Options section near the bottom of the form Initially this displays the TIMES defaults of AUTO for the OBJ formulation and of Start of Year for Discounting Objective Function Options OBJ Formulations Discounting f AUTO STO MOD C ALT C LIN f Stato Year C Middle of Year End of ear i Optimizer r Hodel Yariant Description III i To vary the OBJ formulation from AUTO simply select whichever of STD or MOD or ALT or LIN is desired by clicking on its option button and to vary the Discounting from Start of Year simply select whichever of Middle of Year or End of Year is desired by clicking on its option button and then click on the OK button When Run Model is initiated ANSWER will ensure that the appropriate lines are inserted into the GEN file that controls the TIMES GAMS run to activate the selected options 3 4 2 Run Model Checkboxes At the bottom of the Run Model form there are nine checkboxes SH HHS aaa Edit GAMS Control File Generate Files Do Mot Run M Create Results For Import into ANSWER W Regenerate Base DD File iY Suppress Pure Zero Time Series Results IM Regenerate Non Base DDS Files M Import Results Automatically IM Regenerate Aule based DDS Automatic Repair amp Compact after Import Ok Cancel Details of the
69. the diagram also represents an extraction source for natural gas one for coal and two for crude oil one extracted domestically and then transported by pipeline and the other one imported This simple RES has a total of 13 commodities and 13 processes These elements form a topology where a simple rule is imposed that in the RES every time a commodity enters leaves a process via a particular flow its name is changed e g wet gas becomes dry gas crude becomes pipeline crude This simple rule enables the inter connections between the processes to be properly maintained throughout the network without the need to explicitly assign numbered interconnections The specific parameters for declaring the RES or topology to the TIMES model generator are the TOP IN TOP OUT parameters associated with each technology That is the topology is defined by the commodities entering and leaving each process The ANSWER TIMES and VEDA TIMES users interfaces present sections of the RES to assist the analyst with visualizing the RES at any stage ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A16 O P m gt 585 o fe L 3 50 O _ S 5 S c fF Orv Z O O A 17 gt g PEER Ea S oo O IT SAA Gas Gas fired extraction ower planf Plant as aa Coal Coal fired extraction Power plant Electric Heater Oil fired ower plant Oil Furnace refinery Oil extraction Oil Import HFO LFO
70. the run contains an Equation Listing e The Equation Listing section when it is present in the GAMS LST file shows the individual constraints that have been generated for the TIMES model run Whether all individual constraints are shown or only some is under user control e The screenshot below shows the start of the Equation Listing section in the GAMS LST file BASETINY LST for the tiny TIMES model where run defaults have been modified so that an Equation Listing is generated You may find it useful to temporarily zoom to 150 so that you can see the screenshot clearly BASETINY LST WordPad DOR File Edit View Insert Format Help Cael SkA tban Equation Listing SOLVE TIMES Using LP From line 38950 EQ OBJ E Overall Objective Function EQ OBJ OBJZ VAR_OBJ DEMO OBJINV CUR VAR_OBJ DEMO OBJFIX CUR VAR_OBJ DEMO OBJSAL CUR VAR_OBJ DEMO OBJVAR CUR E 0 LHS 0 19803 Equation EQ OBJ 0 000 0 156 SECS 9 Mb I EQ OBJFIX E Fixed Costs EQ OBJFIX DEMO CUR 394 060340075724 VAR_NCAP DEMO 2005 ECCNGAS 257 356959576389 VAR_NCAP DEMO 2010 ECCNGAS 150 2462983910466 VAR_ NCAP DEMO 2015 ECCNGAS 66 322266819098S VAR_NCAP DEMO 2020 ECCNGAS VAR_OBJ DEMO OBJFIX CUR E 0 LHS 0 19399 Equation EQ OBJFIX 0 000 0 156 SECS 9 Mb 1 EQ OBJINV E Investment component EQ OBJINV DEMO CUR 400 95283446712 VAR_NCAP DEMO 2005 ECCNGAS 15 035731292517 VAR_NCAP DEMO 2005 RELCHPUMP
71. the service station electricity at the socket or fuel wood in the barn All final energy vectors are expressed in the common energy unit GJ but it is clear to all users that the same GJ content of wood fuels is different from electricity the latter can produce work directly the former has to undergo the Carnot cycle and losses before producing work The next energy transformation is the conversion of final energy in useful energy basically heat and work by means of energy end use devices such as boilers engines or motor drives Useful energy is This paragraph and the following one are taken from N Nakichenovich et al CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 Impacts Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change Scientific Technical Analyses Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change WMO UNEP Cambridge University Press 1996 878 pages Chapter B pages 75 78 In other words primary energy consumption is an abstract concept calculated by converted the different forms of energy into a common unit The conversion can be calculated at the physical content equivalent adopted by IEA or at the substitution principle adopted by EIA The former method converts electricity from nuclear at 33 efficiency geothermal at 10 efficiency and all other non biomass renewable sources at 100 efficiency The latter converts every non fossil non biomass electricity heat at t
72. to Damages 201 2703728 244 j DAMAGE MLF Non BASE scenario with SO damage parameters NLF approach to Damages 201270328 23 44 DISCRETE INY Discrete Capacity Investment Parameters for Process E r0 201 27 03720 23 45 j ELAST DM Elastic Demand Parameters 2013705714 18 38 j ELAST DM COe2 Elastic Demand Pararneters COZ lirit 2013709714 18 39 ETL Endogenous Technology Learning Parameters 201 27 03726 23 46 EX4 5PER exampled demonstration database BASE scenario for 5 periods up to 2050 201 27 03 28 23 46 E4 FER exampled demonstration database BASE scenario for periods up to 2080 201 2 03 28 23 46 j Exd F PERSYEP example demonstration database BASE scenario for pernods up to 2080 2013 09 14 18 35 gt Scenario Details OF Cancel 2 4 3 2 Name and Description textboxes As noted above over time a number of different TIMES runs and their associated settings will be saved in the ANSWER TIMES database with the Run Name being the important identifier for a TIMES run but the longer Run Description also important to remind you of the essential nature of the Run This means that when specifying the Run Name and Description you may wish to adopt some conventions to make it easy to remember the essential nature of the Run Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 48 2 4 3 3 Specify Model Variant button and associated textbox The textbox to the right of the Specify Model Variant
73. to a building while the outdoor temperature is 2 C requires a theoretical minimum of about one unit of energy input for every 12 units of heat energy delivered to the indoors according to the second law of thermodynamics To provide 12 units of heat with an 80 efficient furnace however requires 12 0 8 or 15 units of heat The corresponding second law efficiency is the ratio of ideal to actual energy use i e 1 15 or 7 The first law efficiency of 80 gives the misleading impression that only modest improvements are possible The second law efficiency of 7 says that a 15 fold reduction in final heating energy is theoretically possible For example instead of combusting a fossil fuel Goldemberg et at 1988 give the example of a heat pump which extracts heat from a local environment outdoor air indoor exhaust air ground water and delivers it into the building A heat pump operating on electricity can supply 12 units of heat for 3 to 4 units of electrical energy The second law efficiency improves to 25 33 for this particular task still considerably below the theoretical maximum efficiency Not accounted for in this example however are energy losses during electricity generation Assuming a modern gas fired combined cycle power plant with 50 efficiency the overall efficiency gain is still a factor of two compared with a gas furnace heating system In practice theoretical maxima cannot be achieved More realistic improvement potentials
74. to the input fuel and not the output fuel the emission factor is input fuel specific and independent from the plant efficiency It would be possible to define an emission factor based on the electricity output using ELC instead of HCO and adjusting the factor for the efficiency but this would be poor modelling practice as it would require changing the emission factor if the value of the efficiency were to be modified 3 3 7 4 Specifying a District Heating Plant HPL For an example of a District Heating Plant open the database Example4 with Processes mdb make the non BASE scenario TPROCESSES editable click on the Edit Data button move to the Process tab and select HEATOILB If you click on the Edit button in the Item Management frame to bring up the Edit Process form then you will see the following key features of Process HEATOILB which is a District Heating Plant e Its Set Memberships are Heat Generation HPL With Seasonal Time Slice Level Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 85 Set Memberships Units 170 Commodities Set Memberships Process PRC Additional Characterization ves B Combined Heat amp Power CHF Annual Time Slice Level E Demand Device DMD f Seasonal Time Slice Level ve F Electric Generation ELE Weekly Time Slice Level a E Energy PRE Day Night Time Slice Level vE Heat Generation HPL IT Storage not NST or STK STGTSS ca Mate
75. 0 BASE JACT_COST 2 REG E0 o o gt natn EEEE EEEE BASE ACTER 2 REG EM __ HCO ANNUAL 0 0 3200 0 3200 0 3200 0 3200 0 3200 0 2200 0 3200 0 3200 0 200 rim hdr ARIBRID TAT Likewise if we use the combobox in the toolbar row to select Fesults with BASE GG as the single Selected Case we will see that the column headers in the TS Data spread confirm the Results Time Periods that are shown in the New TIMES Database screenshot above Cave Parameter __ Region Process Comm TimeStic 2065 2080 BASE GG COST_ACT JPEG au o bo o 16832 1 7354 0 0490 0 0453 0 0893 0 0000 0 0000 BASE GG COST_FOM 2 REG EO b 30000 6 0000 0 6308 0es08 0 6308 0 0000 0 0000 MaC Oe Tee Tp TA mra Fmi 3 3 1 1 Displaying Existing Time Periods and Adding New Time Periods To display existing Time Periods in an ANSWER TIMES database or to Add New Time Periods E Click on File in the menu bar and choose Add New Time Periods to Database in the drop menu Copy of Example4 y679 ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help Hew Database Qpen Database Close Database dd Mew Time Periods to Database Delete Time Periods From Database h 2 The Add Time Periods to Database form will appear displaying the current Data Time Periods 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 and the current Results Time Periods 1990 2000 2010 2020 2035 20
76. 0 000 2 300 0000 2 3 TPROCESSES NCAPFOM REG EUHCOUSCCON b pb b db 0 4o00 46 0000 46 0000 46 0000 4 TPROCESSES NCAPILED 2 REG EUHCOUSCCON ho o o o o o bh bo b 0 A a 4 TPROCESSES NCAP_TLIFE 2 REG EUHCOUSCCON bho bh b b 0 a 0 JM _ TPROCESSES PRC_RESID_ 4 REG EUHCOUSCCON bo o o o db bo b o ooo 00750 0 05 0 0250 a eS ee eee eee PAdd TPROCESSES odol El Scenario Parameter Region Process Commodit Item3 Yea Item5__ Item Value Value M TPROCESSES PRCLACTUNT PREG EUHCOUSCCON JELC bo o b 1 M TFPROCESSES PRC_CAPACT 7 REG _ EUHCOUSCCON boo o b p50 REG EUHCOUSCCON r e e C C REG EUHCOUSCCON CO2 a C C REG EUHCOUSCCON a C e C E C e E ee M _ TPROCESSES TOP IN M TPROCESSES TOP OLIT Add TPROCESSES rla Note the use of the ACT_EFF Activity efficiency parameter with input commodity HCO Coal occurring in the first CommGroup position to specify the efficiency of this process as being 0 45 That is 0 45 PJ of ELC Electricity can be produced by burning 1 PJ of HCO Coal Note also the use of the FLO_EMIS Emission factor parameter with ENV commodity CO2 in the Commodity position and input commodity HCO Coal occurring in the first CommGroup position to specify the emission factor for this process associated with the burning of HCO as being 94 That is 94 kt of CO2 are produced by burning 1PJ of HCO By linking the emission factor
77. 05 2010 2015 2020 100 125 150 175 PJ resp Process Data Import of Natural Gas e In each period import price 8 US m PJ Process Data Combined cycle Gas Power Plant e In each period efficiency 55 technical lifetime 30 years investment cost for new capacity 400 US m GW fixed O amp M cost 30 US m GW Process Data Residential Heat Pump e In each period efficiency 400 technical lifetime 15 years investment cost for new capacity 15 US m PJ Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 11 2 3 Building the tiny TIMES model with ANSWER TIMES The steps involved in building any TIMES model with ANSWER TIMES have already been outlined above in section 2 1 Overview In the following subsections 2 3 1 to 2 3 8 we detail how to carry out these steps for the tiny TIMES model 2 3 1 Create New Database specifying Data and Results Time Periods For comprehensive details regarding the New Database facility see subsection 2 4 1 Creating a New ANSWER Database of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual Here we detail what is required to create a New ANSWER Database for the tiny TIMES model Start ANSWER and 1 Click on File in the menu bar and choose New Database in the drop menu 2 The New TIMES Database form will appear with the default settings shown below on the first occasion that you invoke the File New Database facility Mew TIMES Database Template Yer
78. 1 59 e Click on the Edit Data button below the Selected Scenarios listview to move to the Data Screen and then using whatever tabs are appropriate specify new Items in the editable scenario along with new parameter instances in the editable scenario associated with either BASE scenario Items or new Items in the editable scenario For the CO2LIM90 scenario it might be appropriate to move to the Commodity tab select the existing BASE scenario Commodity Item CO2 and define an associated COM_BNDNET parameter instance whose numeric coefficients from 2020 onwards are 90 of 2010 levels For additional details regarding the handing of non BASE scenarios in ANSWER TIMES see section 2 6 The Data Management region of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 57 2 6 Usefulness of an Equation Listing in the GAMS LST file for an ANSWER TIMES run Although a run of the tiny TIMES model is used as a concrete example this section is not specifically related to the tiny TIMES model but is included here because in a number of places Section 3 assumes a knowledge of how to ensure that the GAMS LST file generated by an ANSWER TIMES run contains an Equation Listing To achieve an improved understanding of the nature of the TIMES model that is being generated it can be useful to modify some of the defaults for the ANSWER generated TIMES model run so that the GAMS LST file for
79. 1 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF006 GSL ANNUAL Noting that 1 1111 is the reciprocal of 0 90 and that 1 0204 is the reciprocal of 0 98 we see that the way that the concept of output specific efficiencies applies generalizes is that VAR_FLO OIL 1 ACT_EFF DSL VAR_FLO DSL 1 ACT_EFF GSL VAR_FLO GSL Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 97 3 3 7 14 Case 5 Process SREFO005 input based 1 input 2 outputs one overall efficiency Consider process SREFO05 which is an example of a process that has a single input commodity crude oil OIL and two output commodities diesel and gasoline DSL and GSL and that we wish to treat as an input based process OIL True Commodity Group DSL GSL SREFOQOQS O Refinery SREFOOS Also given that the overall efficiency from input to output is 0 93 we wish to specify an appropriate overall efficiency from output to input for this input based process For this flexible output based process 1 We need to use the CommGroup Tab to manually create true commodity group SREFO005 O that comprises the Output commodities DSL and GSL See subsection 3 3 6 1 Using the CommGroup Tab to manually create a True Commodity Group 2 If using ACT_EFF we need to calculate the overall efficiency from output to input as the reciprocal of 0 93 that is as 1 0 93 1 0753 to 4 dec places and define a single ACT_EFF parameter instance using tr
80. 14 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 98 3 3 8 TradeProcess Tab Trade Processes amp associated Data Parameters In subsection 2 3 7 TradeProcess Tab specify Trade Processes amp associated Data Parameters we detailed how to specify the single Trade Process IMPNGAS Import Natural Gas for the tiny TIMES model by clicking on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Trade Process form Here we make some additional points about the operation of the TradeProcess Tab to specify Trade Processes and their associated Data Parameters by reference to Trade Processes that are defined in the demonstration ANSWER TIMES database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb 3 3 8 1 Trade Processes in demonstration database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb Open the demonstration ANSWER TIMES database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb make the BASE scenario the single selected scenario and the editable scenario click on the Edit Data button and move to the TradeProcess tab and you will see that this database contains 7 Trade Processes Utopia_Demo_UC ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit Yiew Run Tools Functions Help w E 8 38 i al Edit Data Regions Filter Items All gt Scenarios All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter Sets Named rau Trade Processes Sets Filter Named Filter 3 ltem Managemen
81. 2050 2065 2080_ Se Cee 4 Click on the Delete button to bring up the following message Confirm Deletion of Data Results Periods T Please confirm that you wish to delete From the current Database Data Time Periods 2015 MOTE This deletion is PERMANENT and cannot be undone NOTE Deletion of Data Time Period 2015 in the Example4 mdb database destroys data contained in the Stochastic non BASE scenario STOC5STG Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 65 asking for confirmation that you wish to delete this Data Time Period from the database If you click on the OK button this message appears a second time which is perhaps overkill 3 3 2 Displaying Existing Regions in an ANSWER TIMES database Adding amp Deleting Regions In section 2 3 2 Use Region Management facility to create Internal and External Regions we saw that use of the Region Management facility brought up the Region Management form that displayed existing Internal and External Regions in the ANSWER TIMES database and that also allowed New Regions to be Added and existing Regions to be Deleted Edited W Region Management Regions Special region for data parameters with no REG arg MPEP MINA A Region 1 Double clicking on icon toggles Internal to External External to Internal New Delete Edit Close The Region Management facility may be invoked to Add New Regions o
82. 3 provides only a brief outline of the use of the Specify Model Variant button but further details are provided in Section 3 of this Getting Started Manual In the bottom part of the Run Model form not displayed in the above screen snapshot are three more features 7 GAMS Basis Restart File 8 GAMS Basis Save File 9 Assorted Run Model checkboxes In this Getting Started Manual we will not discuss features 7 and 8 in Section 3 we discuss some of the Run Model checkboxes Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 47 For now we simply observe that the default settings for GAMS Basis Restart File and GAMS Basis Save File and for these checkboxes are appropriate for our work with the tiny TIMES Model and also for the majority of ANSWER TIMES runs that we might wish to carry out with full sized TIMES models 2 4 3 1 Change Run button When working with a TIMES model over time a number of different TIMES runs different means with different Run Names and their associated settings will be saved in the ANSWER TIMES database For example we might have a business as usual run for the BASE scenario we might have a run that is business as usual but modified by a CO2 emission constraint specified in a non BASE scenario etc Clicking on the Change Run button brings up the Run Selection form that displays all of the runs that have been saved in the ANSWER T
83. 50 2065 2080 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 63 Add Time Periods to Database select the Data Time Periods and or Results Time Periods that you wish to add to the current Database Data Time Periods Penods to be Added Current Data Time Pernods 1350 2000 2070 2015 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 Add Selected Periods toa Results Results Time Periods Penods to be Added 1995 y 2005 Current Results Time Periods lt 1350 2000 2070 2020 2035 2050 2065 2060 Add Selected Penods to Data Cancel To Add New Time Periods to an ANSWER TIMES database 3 Suppose that you want to add new Data Time Periods 2005 and 2025 but are happy with the Current Results Time Periods Then multi select 2005 and 2025 in the Data Time Periods listbox and click on the gt button to cause the selected Time Periods 2005 and 2025 to appear in the Periods to be Added listbox Data Time Periods Periods to be Added 2005 Pe 2025 Current Data Time Periods a4 1390 2000 2010 2015 2020 2055 2050 2065 2080 Add Selected Periods to Results 4 Click on the OK button to bring up the following message Confirm Addition of Data Results Periods f Please confirm khat wou wish to add to the current Database Data Time Periods 72005 2025 NOTE This addition is PERMANENT But it can be undone by using the Delete Time Periods from Database Facili
84. 8 0830 esse ee a E E C BASE G_YRFR eooo 0 1670 Pojesse cvnre ajrec sen 0 G_DRATE is a parameter that has a region index but does not have any other index so fits our definition of a category b parameter given above The G_YRFR parameter does not strictly fit our definition since it has both a region index and a TimeSlice index but for user convenience is displayed on the Global tab when an Internal Region is selected On the Global Tab with an Internal Region selected it is not unusual for G_DRATE and G_YRFR to be the only parameters that are specified in an ANSWER TIMES database To see all possible such TIMES parameters click on the E button to the right of the Ts TID data combobox 1 Data Parameter Information for Globals for region REG and scenario s BASE Legend data parameter exists C compulsory O optional illegal missing compulsory Time Seres Parameters 7 G DRATE Discount rate for 4 currency J REG BNDCST Bound on regional costs by type O TH_EXPF Annual percent expansion factor inot used in TIMES M5A O TH_GR MACRO projected annual GDP growth Time Independent Parameters G _YRFR Seasonal fraction of the year O REG CUMCST Cumulative bound on regional costs by type O REG FIET Year up to which model solution will be fixed in FIEBOH run by region O TM _DEPR Depreciation rate O TM _DMTOL Demand lower bound factor O TM _ESUB Elasticity of substitution O TM
85. 894 Korea F 477 53 L 0 1866 L Luxembourg 370 63 659 40 0 1009 0 1010 Mexico 227 77 L 858 15 0 2443 Netherlands 166 03 743 97 0 0527 0 1337 New Zealand X X 0 0517 0 0856 Norway 274 80 449 72 0 0736 0 1250 Poland 384 42 I 009 22 0 1073 0 1764 Portugal a X South Africa 275 65 L 431 22 L 0 0797 L 0 1295 L Slovak Republic 344 60 726 64 0 0833 L 0 1535 L Spain ue oe m Sweden 445 91 714 20 0 0807 0 1276 Switzerland 350 49 410 22 0 1077 0 1194 Turkey 396 84 L 519 67 0 1003 L 0 1580 United Kingdom 375 54 487 47 0 0549 0 0961 United States ond the United States fe Gross calorific value Brown coal for Turkey a Price exclding tox for the United States lotet dato available a hofovalable x nof opplicable Figure 4 13 Fuel Retail Prices 2 2 US Unit o cantidental The problem is to build such curves for each commodity and sector i e approximately for each cell of an extended energy balance Traditionally an analytical approach is used where the parameter of exponential curves are estimated through econometric analyses over time series or cross sections In the energy sector where the technological content is very important it is both advisable and possible to build supply and demand curves in an alternative way Starting from the technical and economic data of each supply technology it is possible to build bottom up stepwise inverse supply curves see Figure 4 14 Production costs result from adding the main c
86. ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual version 1 1 January 2014 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 2 Foreword This manual is the first Getting Started Manual for the ANSWER TIMES software that allows the user to work with the TIMES energy system model generator developed by the International Energy Agency s IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme ETSAP it introduces the most important features of the TIMES model and of the ANSWER TIMES software The ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual that provided users with the first detailed guide to the use of the ANSWER TIMES software was released in March 2009 The TIMES model is an integrated energy system optimization model that determines the least cost means of satisfying the demand for energy services The model was developed by the International Energy Agency s IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme ETSAP TIMES modellers can access a world wide users support network established under the auspices of the IEA Energy Technology and Systems Analysis Project ETSAP For further details refer to the ETSAP website http Awww iea etsap orq It is assumed that the reader has reasonable familiarity with the TIMES model Documentation for the TIMES model may be downloaded from the ETSAP website http www iea etsap org web Documentation asp While this Getting Started manual in most
87. COM SUBPRD Subsidy on production of a commodity net COM TAXZHET Tax on a commodity net COM TAXPRD Tax on production of a commodity net COM VOC Variance of elastic demand DAM COST Marginal damage cost of emissions DAM TQOTY Base quantity of emissions by year DAM TVOC Yarlance of emissions by year S COM FR Seasonal distribution of a commodity stochastic 5S COM PROJ Multiplier for demand baseline projection stochastic S DAM COST Marginal damage cost of emissions stochastic mor g g g O a O a O a g g g g g O a O a a g Time Independent Parameters COM CUMHET Cumulative net bound on commodity e g emissions COM CUMPRD Cumulative limit on production of a commodity COM GHAP Commodity and commodity group Set COM LIM List of equation type for balance Set COM OFF Periods for which a commodity 1s unavailable Set COM PEAK Peaking required flag Set COM PETS Peak timeslice for a Commodity Set COM STEP Step size for elastic demand DAM BOTY Base quantity of emissions DAM ELAST Elasticity of damage cost DAM STEP Step number for emissions up to hase DAM VOC Yarlance of emissions S COM CUMNET Cumulative net bound on commodity e g emissions stochastic E S COM CUMPRD Cumulative limit on production of a commodity stochastic i Close x a a a a a a Scanning the above list of commodity specific parameters we see that quite a few parameters are associated with TIMES Extension
88. Commodities NGAS Natural Gas and ELC Electricity and 1 DEM Commodity RHEAT Residential Heat The screenshot below indicates what the New Commodity form looks like if you are specifying a Commodity that is an Emission that is a Commodity whose Commodity Type is ENV MS Sew Commodity in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Commodity Check the Region combobox setting Specity Set Memberships and change Units if WET necessary Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specity parameter data as appropriate Item Information scenario p ase exanpled demonstration database Hame Desc coz REG Carbon Dioxide Set Memberships E Low Temperature Heat LTHEAT oo TA Nuclear NUCLR Annual Time Slice Level EA Synthetic SYNTH C Seasonal Time Slice Level i E Unlimited Renewable FRERENEW Weekly Time Slice Level gt Day Night Time Slice Level Environmental Indicator ENY i 5 G reenhous e Gas GHG E Other OTHENY E Material MAT oo ER Volume MAT_VOL oo BL Weight MAT_WT A Fa oie il die eee I Commodity Units thousand tonnes Change Units Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 76 There are a few points to note regarding use of the New Commodity form to specify a Commodity that is an Emission e You must select one of the two leaf nodes nodes with icon oO that have the sees nt asia sl node as their parent That is you must select peg
89. Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter ltems Filter E Sez C Neves eveL Results Parameters Levels sets Filter Hamed Filter ltem Management J items selected Sabet Hew op Delete Braves VAR _CUMPFLO L Cumulative Process Flow WAR _FLO AN L Flow Into a Process by TimeSlice all vintages WAR _FLO OUT L Flow Qut of a Process by TimeSlice all vintages WAR_IRE EX P L Inter regional Exchange E Port by TimeSlice all wint VAR_IRE MP L Inter regional Exchange IMPort by TimeSlice all vint oA PRLS es VAR NOAP L New Capacity Installed in a Period VAR_ACAPGYy L Genuine Retirement of Process Capacity vintaged VAR _ACAPY L Retirement of Process Capacity vintaged k Ts data ka Case Parameter Region Process Commo TimeSlice 7 2005 N 20m0 E VARFLOIN L DEMO ECCNGAS NGAS ANNUAL f 45 4545 56 5182 68 1818 79 5455 BASETINY WAR_FLOJN L 7 DEMO RELCHPUMP ELC ANNUAL ff 25 0000 91 2500 37 5000 43 7500 J BASETINY VAR_FLO OUT L DEMO ECCNGAS ELC ANNUAL 25 0000 BASETINY VAR_FLO OUT L DEMO RELCHPUMP RHEAT ANNUAL 100 0000 925 0000 150 0000 175 0000 L BASETINY VAR_IREIMP L DEMO ___IMPNGAS __NGAS ANNUAL 45 4545 7 56 8182 68 1818 73 5455 5 On the diagram below we have displayed the Commodity flows into and out of each of the three Processes for the Milestone Year 2005 T lt l
90. EG and in the special GLOBAL Region Also both TS_ PARENT and G_YRFR Seasonal fraction of the year parameter instances are created for each Internal Region here just REG for TimeSlice FA Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter Sets C Named rai Time Slices ALL TS Sets Filter Named Filter Fem Descipon O O o os plemManagmen ANNUAL GLOBAL Annual cela Slice Sets ANNUAL IMPEXP Annual ne ANNUAL MINANW Annual New Copy Delete Edit B ANNUAL REG Annual A a a Select All Items Hove RES F REG Fall Subset Parameters Time Slice Specific TID data Ez Parameter Region __ TimeSlic TimeStice 7 BASE G_YRFR 2 REG FA BASE TS PARENT 2 REG FA ANNUAL 1 ee F Add BASE ee Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 70 4 Enter an appropriate numeric value for G_YRFR for each Internal Region for TimeSlice FA in the Value column e g perhaps enter 0 25 To define a new SEASON level TimeSlice of SU Summer J Again click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New TimeSlice form The same caveats regarding the initial appearance of the form apply as previously except that the Region combobox setting of REG will be remembered E New TimeSlice in scenario BASE x Ye Create New TimeSlice Enter N
91. EMO and in Region IMPEXP and will become the current Item in the Trade Process Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling TSR File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help g Fl CREA E Alvi Edit Data Regions Filter items All Scenarios All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Item Filter G Seg Named fanr Trade Processes Sets Filter Hamed Filter Item Management Current Trade Process 5 IMP GAS Import Matural Gas IMPNGAS Sets New Copy Delete Edit Select All tems CES BES subset Parameters 0 Trade Process Specific Ts Trp data Scenario Parameter Region __ Region2 Process Comma tem3_ Comm ir Item5 item iE 2005 2010 2015 2020 O M a I OO OO 5o Parameter SQ Resion Region2 Process Comma item3_ Year__ tem Item Value PASE PAC_ACTUNT NDEMO IMPNGAS Neas j o booo o bloo n EASE PRCACTUNT Eere pMPncAs o oas fpf eT oo Pease PAC_CAPACT F APEMO IMPNGAS ooo hoo dbo booo A 1o PASE PARC_CAPACT_ IMPE xP IMPNGAS ooo o hooo doo hooo ENU 1o Ean E c IMPEXP DEMO E INGAS Ny D Orel Database C VAnswerl IME Svb answer Databases Tiny TIMESModel mdb Edit Scenario BASE E Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 42 Note that TID parameter instances
92. Electricity a Commodity Sets NGAS DEMO Natural Gas a NGAS IMPE F Natural Gas Bar Copy Delete Edit Select All tems Faove FES Subset Parameters 0 Commodity Specific 73 TID data Scenario Parameter Pegon Comma Commodty TimeSiic iteme Wve 2005 2m0 205 2020 ee ee eee ee eee fee tenet peg few fore en vee prens Hen vote es ee eee 6 For this Electric Commodity no TS or TID Data Parameters are automatically generated 7 For the tiny TIMES model no additional TS or TID Data Parameters are required to complete the specification of ELC in Region DEMO 2 3 5 4 Specify Commodity RHEAT in Region DEMO 1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Commodity form 2 Enter RHEAT in the Name textbox accept the current setting of DEMO in the Region combobox and enter Residential Heat in the Description textbox 3 Specify the Set Memberships by clicking on the Residential RES leaf node in the tree view and accepting Annual Time Slice Level as the selected radio button under Additional Characterization 4 Accept the default Commodity Units of petajoules The New Commodity form appears as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 25 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual E New Commodity in scenario BASE 26 Enter Name and Description for the new Commodity Check the Region combobox setting Specify Set Memberships and c
93. File IY Suppress Pure Zero Time Series Results IM Regenerate Non Base DDS Files i Import Results Automatically IM Regenerate Aule based DDSs Automatic Repair amp Compact after Import OF Cancel 2 Change the Run Name and Description at the top of the form to BASETINY and Tiny TIMES Model Base Scenario Run respectively but otherwise accept all of the default settings on the form That is the Run Model form should remain as above except that at the top of the form Name and Description are as follows Hodel Run Details Hame BASETINY Description Tin TIMES Model Base Scenario Aun Then click on the OK button at the bottom of the form 3 ANSWER will generate the files needed for the TIMES GAMS run and will initiate the run After initiating the run the Run Model form closes 4 The TIMES GAMS run will occur in a Command Prompt window A run of the tiny TIMES Model occurs so quickly that the Command Prompt Window appears only briefly before closing automatically at the end of the GAMS run If we prevent the Command Prompt window from closing we would see the following screen snapshot at the end of the GAMS run indicating that an optimal solution has been found with objective value 9270 940970 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 45 ey 0 WINDOWS system32 cmd exe Optimal solution Swm Objective 7270 940970 E starting Recut ion BASETIWNY GENC342945
94. Fora large TIMES model these sub groups may be useful since they make it possible to use standard ANSWER filtering facilities so that the Commodity Items listview displays just Commercial Demands for example e Also potentially these sub groups may allow results aggregation of Demands for Energy Services to be carried out for each of the seven sub groups which is likely more informative than seeing a results aggregation that is taken over all Demand Commodities in the main Commodity Group DEM Note that current ANSWER TIMES mechanics require the user to select a leaf node a node with icon in the LHS Set Memberships treeview For example it is not possible to select just the main Commodity Group DEM one of the seven sub groups AGR COML IND NE OTH RES TRN must be selected Once the user selects a leaf node a node with icon B in the LHS Set Memberships treeview the RHS Additional Characterization listview allows the user to specify the TimeSlice Level for the Commodity with the default being the Annual TimeSlice Level Set Memberships and Units Comment Set Memberships Commodity COM Additional Characterization J J a a a Annual Time Slice Level aA Agricultural fatal Seasonal Time Slice Level Weekly Time Slice Level Day Night Time Slice Level me 5 TEER NDT E Non Energy NE 3 3 5 2 Specification of a Commodity that is an Emission In subsection 2 3 5 we detailed how to specify 2 NRG
95. G REG REG Region 2 ALL_REG REG REG3 Region 3 ALL_REG REG External Regions IMPEXP IMPEXP ALL_REG REG EXT MINRNW MINRNW ALL_REG REG EXT 15 This REGIONS Worksheet specifies three Internal Regions REG1 REG2 and REG3 and two External Regions IMPEXP and MINRNW and also the special GLOBAL region though this could be omitted as every ANSWER TIMES database automatically contains the special GLOBAL region As might be inferred from the above example the format for rows from 2 onwards of a REGIONS Worksheet requires that e The Region Name should be specified in cell A of the row e The Region Description should be specified in cell B of the row e The Region Set Memberships should be specified in cell C of the row e There is also scope for an optional Region Comment to be specified in cell D of the row e Totally blank rows and rows that have an asterisk as the first character in cell A of the row to indicate that the row is a comment row are also allowed but are ignored by ANSWER when the Worksheet is processed 3 7 3 Example of an ITEMS Worksheet A screenshot showing the format required for an ITEMS Worksheet is on the following page While some aspects of the format required for rows from 2 onwards of an ITEMS Worksheet can be readily inferred from this screenshot namely that e The litem Name should be specified in cell C of the row e The Item Description should be specified in cell D of the row e The It
96. GEN file as well as replacing LIMROW 0 by LIMROW299 it can be useful to scroll lower down the GEN file and also replace SET REDUCE YES by SET REDUCE NO Otherwise the substitutions that are carried out by the TIMES GAMS code with SET REDUCE YES to reduce the model to a smaller mathematically equivalent model can make it difficult to understand the contents of the Equation Listing Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 58 Run Model a x Hodel Run Details Mame BASETINY Change Aun Description TinyTIMESModel Base Scenario Run Comment ts 7 File Edit Model wariant Salsa TTE NOBLE SUPR A sjn ae Scenarios compri i Mame GOBASE ONLISTING SET SHELL ANSWER Activate validation to force YAR_CAP COMPAOD and square obj costing 5ET VALIDATE NO GAMS Basis Rel Initialize the environment variables 5ET DEBUG NO 5ET SOLVE_NOW YES GAMS Basis Restal SET DUMPSOL YES 5ET MODEL_NAME TIMES GAMS Basis Say 5ET SOLYEDA YES No Basis Save 5ET YEDAYDD YES 5ET YAR_UC YES GAMS Basis 56vql ANSWER allows maximum of 300 states of world i Solve fram scra Progress til I Edit GAMS Control File Generate Files Do Not Run M Create Results For Import into ANSWER IY Regenerate Base DD File iY Suppress Pure Zero Time Series Results I Regenerate Non Base DDS Files V Import Results Automatically IM Regenerate Aule ba
97. Greenhouse Gas GHG 5 Se ea either the leaf node or the node e The default Commodity Units for a Commodity whose Commodity Type is ENV are set by ANSWER TIMES to be thousand tonnes If you prefer a different default Commodity Unit exit the New Commodity form and invoke Edit Unit Defaults select the ei Environmental Indicator E MW IEA node click on the Change Units button to enable the Commodity Units combobox and use the combobox to select your preferred default Commodity Unit E Edit Default Units for Commodity Specity Set Memberships for the Commodity subset whose Default Unit s pou wish to edit e Click on Change Units choose the new Default Unit s and click OK Set Memberships and Units Set Memberships Commodity COM E Demand for Energy Services DEM FS Energy Carrier NAG E Environmental Indicator ENW s 99 Material MAT ER Volume M amp T_VOL ow EE Weight MAT WT E Financial Indicator FIN Commodity Units thousand tonnes 3 3 5 3 Data Parameters associated with Commodities In subsection 3 3 3 Global Tab Global Data Parameters we saw that clicking on the 2 button to the right of the Ts TID ae E combobox displayed all possible TIMES global parameters according to whether the special GLOBAL region or an Internal Region was selected in the Global Tab Items listview Likewise on the Commodity Tab clicking on the Bi button to the right of the T
98. IMES database and allows us to select a particular run that we wish to carry out again e g possibly because some model data has been updated Once we have selected a particular run and returned to the Run Model form the Run Model form is populated with the saved settings for the selected model run So repeating the model run is then simply a matter of clicking on the OK button For the tiny TIMES model clicking on the Change Run button will just bring up an empty Run Selection form since BASETINY is the Run currently displayed on the Run Model form and is the only Run in the Tiny TIMESModel database the Run Selection form does not show the Run currently displayed on the Run Model form The following Run Selection form is an example of what we get if we click on the Change Run button for the demonstration ANSWER TIMES database Example4 mdb and then select CO2LIMIT as the run that we wish to carry out again W Run Selection HBR j BASE SPER example demonstration database BASE scenario for 3 periods 1990 to 2010 201370419 17 51 BASE GG exampled demonstration database BASE scenario 201370914 18 37 CLIPARMS Demonstration of specification of single instance of each Climate Parameter 20107 06704 14 49 CO2LIMIT CO limit 2013 09 14 18 39 CO2LIMIT TS CO limit wy sector trade 2013 01 01 17 31 COSLIMIT T CO limit w out sector trade 2013 01 01 17 48 DAMAGE LP Nor BASE scenario with SO damage parameters LP approach
99. L Region is not selected the G_DYEAR Parameter instance will not be displayed in the TID data spread so you will not be able to specify its numeric value If with the GLOBAL Region selected in the Regions display the G_DYEAR Parameter instance is not displayed in the TID data spread most likely this is because you are using a less recent version of ANSWER TIMES where the G_DYEAR Parameter instance is not automatically generated To create the G_DYEAR Parameter instance use the AddRow facility In the TID data spread left click in the AddRow Parameter combobox and select G_DYEAR then press the J key or the Insert key Now carry out step 2 immediately below to specify 2003 as the G_DYEAR numeric value 2 Enter 2003 in the cell that is circled above namely the Value column cell in the G_DYEAR row The mechanics of doing this are to click in the cell enter 2003 and then press the Enter key The TID data spread will now appear as follows Scenario Parameter Pegon Step Age Value pe eren paon ooo o 2000 Tada BASE Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 18 2 3 3 3 Specify G_DRATE Parameter for Internal Region DEMO 1 Select Region DEMO in the Regions display by clicking in the DEMO row You will see the following display in which the G_DRATE Parameter instance has been automatically generated so that all you need to do Is specify its numeric values in 2005 2010 2015 2020
100. Marland et al 1994 IEA 1993 Marland and Rotty 1984 Nakicenovic et al 1993 WEC 1992a Figure 4 2 Major energy and carbon flows through the global energy systems in 1990 How much energy is needed for a particular energy service The answer to this question is not so straightforward It depends on the type and quality of the desired energy service the type of conversion technology the fuel including the way the fuel is supplied and the surroundings infrastructures and organizations that provide the energy service Initially energy efficiency improvements can be achieved in many instances without elaborate analysis through common sense good housekeeping and leak plugging practices Obviously energy service efficiencies improve as a result of sealing leaking window frames or installing a more efficient furnace If the service is transportation getting to and from work for example using a transit bus jointly with other commuters is more energy efficient than taking individual automobiles After the easiest improvements have been made however the analysis must go far beyond energy accounting Here the concept that something may get lost or destroyed in every energy device or transformation process is useful For instance in terms of energy 1kWh of electricity and the heat contained in 43 kg of 20 C water are equal i e 3 6 MJ At ambient conditions it is obvious that 1kWh electricity has a much larger potential to do work
101. Meuro MW Electricity Output Very High voltage level Fixed Variable inyesmment O M cost O M cost Meuro M Meuro GWh Techn Lie W y produced Tech Name Tech Desc Fuel Input Efficiency ETOOLICV1 ETOOLIVE1 ETOOLICV2 ETOGNATGI ETOOLIVE3 ETOGASDEI ETOOLITG1 ETOGNAmil ETOGNACK1 ETOGNAmi2 ETOGN Ami3 ETOGNAmi4 ETOGNAmi5 ETOGNAmi6 ETOOLICEK1 ETOGNACK2 Power Plant Piombino ENELP i 1280 Livorno ENELP i 310 Santa Barbara ENELP i i 250 ENIPOWER ISE EDISON Piombino ISE EDISON Piombino CIP6 Portoferraio ENEL Power Plant Termica Lucchese Elettra GLL CIP6 Lucchini Nuova Solmine Nuovo Pignone Power Plant Ambiente Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Cartiera Smarco Porcari EDISON CIP6 Rosen SOLVAY Power Plant Power Plant ETOBIORI1 ETOHYDRS1 ETOHYDRF1 ETOWINRIA ETOGEORI1 Biomassa Power Plant TOS Dum Hydroelectric Power Plant TOS Run river Power Plant TOS Wind Power Plant TOS Geothermal Power Plant TOS Figure 4 8 Simplified characterisation of existing Power Plants in Tuscany Italy When the analysis refers to the future the characterisation extends to technologies that could become part of the energy system see Figure 4 9 In this case the problem is uncertainty about cost ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Man
102. N UTOPIA IMPEAP MINAN 4 Click on the OK button at the bottom of the New Trade Process form The Trade Process Item BITRADE ELC will be created in region DEMO and in region UTOPIA and will become the current Item in the Trade Process Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Utopia_Demo_UC ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling DOR File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help F 8 3 al HF Edit Data Regions Filter Items An T S cenarios Al Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter Sets C Named rai Trade Processes EEE Sets Filter Named Filter ltem Management B BITRADE ELC Bilateral Trade in a Fae ee acct Sets IMPDSL1 Import of Diesel IMPGAS1 Import of Natural Gas New Copy Delete Edit IMPGSL1 Import of Gasoline F IMPHCO1 Import of Hard Coal Sessa CARA IMPOIL1 Import of Crude IMPURN1 Import of Uranium Subset Parameters 0 Trade Process Specific Ts TID data 2 Scenario Parameter Region Region2 Process___ Commodity item3 CommGroup Item5_ Item6 1E 1980 2000 2010 SS ES A SC UTOPIA BITRADE ELC DEMO BITRADE ELC Database C AnswerTIMESv6 4nswer_Databases Utopia_Demo_UC mdb Edit Scenario BASE Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 101 3 3 8 3 l Note that TID parameter insta
103. Night Time Slice Level io EL Miscellaneous MISC Extraction TRACT M Import Export IRE C Renewable RENEW Accept Annual Time Slice Level as the selected radio button and accept also that the Import Export IRE checkbox is checked It is automatically checked and cannot be unchecked 5 Accept the default Process Activity Capacity Units of petajoules petajoules annum and the default PRC_CAPACT value of 1 The New Trade Process form appears as follows E New Trade Process in scenario BASE Enter Mame and Description for the new Trade Process Specify Type of Trade and Commodity Type and Naming Specify Set Memberships and change E Units if necessary Use Traded Commodities andor Trade batris tabs to specity Traded Commodities Item Information Scenario pase TinyTIMESModel E Hame Desc IMPN GAS Import Natural Gas Type of Trade Commodity Type and Naming Bilateral Trade of Market Trade Market Region JIMPEXP Type NRG W Same Commodity Name in All Regions ee Set Memberships J Trade Process E Electric Generation ELE Annual Time Slice Level i Energy PRE O Seasonal Time Slice Level Ei Material by weight PR Weekly Time Slice Level P Material by volume PRY Day Night Time Slice Level B Miscellaneous MISC 7 Extraction TRACT M Import Export IRE L Renewable RENEW Process Activity Units petajoules r Process Capacity Unite petajoules annum PRC_CAFACT Value fi Change
104. PJa PRC DMD ANNUAL Constraint Items for GLOBAL REG1 REG2 REG3 regions _GLOBAL REG1 REG2 REG3 C XREG UCONSTR Cross Region User Constraint uconstraint UC_N UCT The ITEMS Worksheet above what we can see of it in rows 1 45 specifies that e Commodity Items CO2 DSL URN should be created in each of the Regions REG1 REG2 and REGS as specified by the comma delimited region list in cell A4 e Commodity Group Items E41 G RHG_IN SRE G should be created in each of the Regions REG1 REG2 and REGS e Process Items E01 E21 TXG should be created in each of the Regions REG1 REG2 and REGS e User Constraint Item XREG UCONSTR should be created in each of the Regions _GLOBAL REG1 REG2 and REG3 as specified by the comma delimited region list in cell A45 Example of a TS DATA Worksheet A screenshot showing the format required for a TS DATA Worksheet is on the following page The format required for rows from 2 onwards of a TS DATA Worksheet is as follows e Cell A of the row if non blank and not a comment row should contain a comma delimited region list whose regions are a subset of the regions specified in cell B1 e Cell B of the row should contain the Name of the TS Data Parameter being specified Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual Cells C to H of the row should contain the Name s of the Arguments Indexes of the Data Parameter being specified in the Item1 to Item6 positions used by
105. PRC_ACTUNT PRC_CAPACT and TOP_IRE for the Trade Process are automatically generated with appropriate numeric values 11 To complete the specification of Trade Process IMPNGAS the following additional TIMES parameter instance needs to be specified it happens to be a TS parameter e IRE_PRICE Price of import export 12 Use the AddRow facility in the TS spread to add the IRE_PRICE parameter instance with numeric values of 8 0 in each Time Period so that the TS data spread appears as follows subset Parameters 0 Trade Process oe rs TID data scenario Parameter Peson N Regione Process Comma tema Comf Items N Wtem ive 2005 200 2015 2020 fect ee ee Just rnc ee ta ne gmc een E DEE mil a MG MR ll I A Note that Trade Process IMPNGAS involves the IMPort into Region DEMO of NGAS The correct specification of the IRE_PRICE parameter instance must have DEMO in the Region column and IMPEXP in the Region2 column and IMP in the Item5 column 2 3 8 Constraint Tab specify User Constraints amp associated Data Parameters Virtually all TIMES models contain User Constraints These User Constraints Constraint Items must be specified on the Data Screen Constraint Tab In TIMES User Constraints most often involve TimeSlices and Processes but sometimes may involve Commodities You must specify the TimeSlices Processes and Commodities that are involved in a User Constraint before you can specify the User C
106. S 3 3 1 Data and Results Time Periods Adding and Deleting Time Periods In section 2 3 1 Create New Database specifying Data and Results Time Periods we saw that use of the File New Database facility brought up a form on which various attributes of a new ANSWER TIMES database could be specified including its Data and Results Time Periods So when the New Database facility was invoked to create the ANSWER TIMES demonstration database Example4 mdb this form might have looked as follows just prior to the OK button being clicked Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 62 Sew TIMES Database version TIME Sv6 Mas Item Length 16 TIMES v6 Mas ltem Length 24 Other Base Scenario Details Name EASE f Description Exampled Data Time Periods Results Time Periods f Unequal spacing 0 Equal spacigg f Unequal spacing Equal spacing Add Selected Add Selected Periods to Results Periods to Data Create Initial Region W Same TimeSlices in Every Region OK Cancel If we open database Example4 mdb make the BASE scenario editable click on the Edit Data button to move to the Process Tab we will see that the column headers in the TS Data spread confirm the Data Time Periods that are shown in the New TIMES Database screenshot above Scenario Parameter_ Region Process Comm Comm C Item5 Item IE 1990 2000 2010 205 2020 2035 2050 2065 208
107. SET ALL_TS lt casename gt TS DDS BASETINY TS DDS file BASE scenario Trade Data file BASE TRADE DD BASE TRADE DD Non BASE scenario Data lt scenarioname gt lt region gt DDS There are no non BASE scenarios for BASETINY run BASE scenario Data Dictionary BASE lt region gt DD BASE DEMO DD Dictionary file Non BASE scenario Trade Data lt scenarioname gt TRADE DDS There are no non BASE file scenarios for BASETINY run File defining Rule based lt casename gt _RULES lt region gt DDS BASETINY RULES DEMO DDS Constraints emot Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 52 The generation by ANSWER TIMES of separate BASE lt region gt DD files for each Internal Region and of a separate BASE TRADE DD is simply the way that ANSWER TIMES Run Model facility currently does the DD file generation for the BASE scenario Likewise the generation of separate lt scenarioname gt lt region gt DDS files for each Internal Region and of a separate lt scenarioname gt TRADE DDS file for each non BASE scenario lt scenarioname gt is simply the way that ANSWER TIMES Run Model facility currently does the DDS file generation for each non BASE scenario lt scenarioname gt It would be possible to recode the Run Model facility so that a single BASE DD file was put out that contained BASE scenario model data for each Internal Region and for trade between Regions and likewise so that for each non BASE scenario
108. SOL YES GAMS Basis Savj SET MODEL_NAME TIMES C No Basis Save A 56 cake g GAMS Basis Save Ai itda wffimum of 300 states of world re ti gt Progress fw Edit GAMS Control File Generate Files Do Not Run IY Create Results For Import into ANSWER IM Regenerate Base DD File IY Suppress Pure Zero Time Series Results IM Regenerate Non Base DDS Files I Import Results Automatically IY Regenerate Rule based ODS Automatic Repair amp Compact after Import Cancel 2 After run REG UCRT has obtained an optimal solution and automatic import of results has occurred click on the View LST button below the Cases listview bottom LHS quadrant of Home Screen to bring up inside Wordpad the REG UCRT LST file created by the TIMES GAMS run Use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of Equation Listing you should find this because of the LIMROW2 99 setting in the GEN file Then use the Find facility to find EQL_UCRT REG UCRT You should find the following equation for EQL_ UCRT REG UCRT DEMO 1990 that has been reformatted over several lines below BOL UCRT REG UCRI DEMO 1990 VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 H01 SPD VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 H01 SPN VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 H01 SUD VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 H01 SUN VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 H01 FAD VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 EH01 FAN ot VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 H01 WID VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 EH01 WIN VAR ACT DEMO L990 1990 E21 5P VAR ACT
109. Scenarios listview top RHS of Home Screen appears as follows Selected Scenarios Modified BASE Base scenario tor Demo an 2013 09 25 22 33 ee AEG UCRT By Region User Defined C 2009 10 08 04 34 3 Click on the Edit Data button below the Selected Scenarios listview to move to the Data Screen and then click on the Constraint tab The Constraint tab will appear as follows since there are two User Constraints RENEWELC and RENEWELC2 defined in the BASE scenario for region DEMO Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 108 Utopia Denvo_UG ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help F JEE E Al Y JEdit Data Regions Filter items All Scenarias All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter 6 Sets f Named rau User Defined Constraints UC_Nij Sets Filter Hamed Filter nem Mustela SERENEWELC DEMO Rule bazed constraint for renewable electricity Current U ser Defined Sets Constraint RENEWELC FENEWELCSe Aiule based constraint for renewable electricity 2 llaleM Delete Browse a Select All Items Move FES Subset Parameters ec User Defined Constraint ts TID data 2 Scenario Parameter Region Constraint Side _ Proc Filter EA a a BASE UCRULE_ACT DEMO RENEWELC LHS ALLELE ANNUAL O 0 0500 0 0500 0 0500
110. Sv6 Answer_ Databases for recent versions of ANSWER TIMES are referred to in Section 3 e Example4 mdb database with single internal region REG 4 seasonal timeslices and 8 day night timeslices The BASE scenario demonstrates the specification of TimeSlices Commodities Processes and TradeProcesses for a fairly simple single region TIMES energy system model Assorted non BASE scenarios demonstrate the specification of a few types of User Constraints and as well provide concrete examples of the majority of the TIMES Model Variant Extensions Elastic Demand Damages Discrete Capacity Investment etc e Utopia_Demo_UC mdb database with two internal regions DEMO and UTOPIA 4 seasonal timeslices and 8 day night timeslices The BASE scenario demonstrates the specification of TimeSlices Commodities Processes and TradeProcesses for a fairly simple two region TIMES energy system model Six of the non BASE scenarios have been explicitly constructed to demonstrate the specification of six of the most common types of User Constraints e Example4 with Processes mdb database with single internal region REG and with the same timeslices and BASE scenario as the Example4 mdb database above but differs in that it contains non BASE scenario TPROCESSES that is used to provide concrete examples of the processes that are discussed in subsection 3 3 7 Process Tab Processes amp associated Data Parameters Also differs in that it does not con
111. TUR SPD 0 37 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 EDSLTUR GAS SPD 0 35 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 EDSLTUR DSL SPD E 0 A simple rearrangement of this equation yields VAR_ACT REG 2000 2000 EDSLTUR SPD E 0 35 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 EDSLTUR DSL SPD 0 37 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 EDSLTUR GAS SPD and indicates how the concept of input specific efficiencies applies in this particular case Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 96 3 3 7 13 Case 4 Process SREFO06 output based 1 input 2 outputs output specific efficiencies Consider process SREFOO6 which is an example of a process that has a single input commodity crude oil OIL and two output commodities diesel and gasoline DSL and GSL and that we wish to treat as an output based process OIL Primary Commodity Group DSL GSL SREFOQ6 G Refinery SREFOO6 and where there are output specific efficiencies of 0 90 and 0 98 for DSL and GSL respectively meaning that e 0 90 PJ of DSL can be produced by 1PJ of OIL and e 0 98 PJ of GSL can be produced by 1PJ of OIL For this flexible output based process 1 We need to create a true commodity group for the process namely its PCG SREFOO6 G comprising the two output commodities DSL and GSL The ANSWER TIMES New Process facility creates the PCG automatically 2 We take advantage of the fact that there is a special usage allowed of the ACT_EFF parameter in which a
112. Tiny TIMESModel ANS WER TIMES Energy Modelling EER File Edit wiew Run Tools Functions Help g F JEJE E Alv Edit Data Regions Filter Items All Scenarias All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter Es Sets Nemed oreen o M GLOBAL Special region for data parameters with no REG arg DEMO Demo region IMPEFP Import E port region Subset Parameters 0 Global i Bl Senario Parameter Pegon Coston Limit 205 amo 205 2020 B E G DRATE DEMO Uw BASE ee a S a S A Scenario Parameter Regon _ Region2 Year TimeSlice _ Cost gg items Limit Value pe eee foe S OO E E Note also in the TID data spread of the above screen snapshot that the Data Parameter G_YRFR Seasonal fraction of the year has been automatically generated for the ANNUAL TimeSlice with numeric value 1 2 Enter 0 05 0 05 0 05 0 05 in the cells that are circled above namely the 2005 2010 2015 2020 column cells in the G_DRATE row The easiest way of doing this is to click in the 2005 column cell enter 0 05 and then press the F2 key which will extend the value of 0 05 to the remaining cells The TS data spread will now appear as follows scenai Parame Resion Cosso unt e 2005 2m0 ams 200 ea pome apo o o oo ne ne pAdd BASE we 2 3 4 TimeSlice Tab specify Sub Annual TimeSlices amp associated Data Pa
113. TinyTIME SModel E Name Desc IMPN GAS Import Natural Gas Note that for a Trade Process the Item Information frame does not contain a Region combobox A Trade Process always involves at least two Regions and these Regions are specified on the Trade Matrix tab as we will soon see 3 In the Type of Trade frame accept the default setting of Market Trade but change the setting of the Market Region combobox to IMPEXP In the Commodity Type and Naming frame accept the default settings of NRG for the Type combobox NGAS is an NRG Commodity and of checked for the Same Commodity Name in All Regions checkbox the Natural Gas being traded is named NGAS in both the IMPEXP and DEMO Regions Type of Trade Commodity Type and Naming Bilateral Trade f Market Trade Market Region IMPEXP Type NRG W Same Commodity Name in All Regions 4 Specify the Set Memberships by clicking on the Energy PRE leaf node leaf nodes have icon ty in the tree view This results in four TimeSlice radio buttons and three checkboxes appearing under Additional Characterization Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 39 Set Memberships Units Traded Commodities Set Memberships J Trade Process B Electric Generation ELE Annual Time Slice Level 2 w Energy PRE C Seasonal Time Slice Level oo EL Material by weight PRW Weekly Time Slice Level sE Material by volume PRY Day
114. UHCOUSCCON which is an Electric Power Plant e Its Set Memberships are Electric Generation ELE with Day Night Time Slice Level Set Memberships Units 1 0 Commodities Set Memberships A Process PAC Additional Characterization ve B Combined Heat amp Power CHP Annual Time Slice Level is B Demand Device DMD O Seasonal Time Slice Level ve ES Electric Generation ELE Weekly Time Slice Level E Energy PRE Day Night Time Slice Level HB Heat Generation HPL Material by weight PR as B Material by volume PRY E Miscellaneous MISC T Distribution System DISTR T Import Export IRE C Night Storage NST T Storage not MST or STK STGTSS Day Night Time Slice Level is typically the level of TimeSlicing specified for most Electric Generation Processes e ts Process Activity and Process Capacity Units and its PRC_CAPACT value are the defaults for an ELE Process of petajoules and gigawatts and 31 536 respectively Units Process Activity Units petajoules Process Capacity Units gigawatts z PAC_CAPACT Value E 356 Change Units For details regarding default Units see section 4 3 Reviewing and editing default Units for each Database Component of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual e tis specified as a Process that has an Output based Activity with a single NRG input commodity HCO Coal and with the single NRG output commodity ELC Electricity designated as the PCG for th
115. Unit prices of most primary and final energy carriers are reported as current statistics Usually though the detail in the statistics is much greater than for energy balances many more fuel types are covered and much more frequently daily or hourly prices can be found Figure 4 12 and Figure 4 13 show two examples of such statistics ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual Australia 0 885 Austria 421 28 794 80 1 276 Belgium 356 39 675 62 1 590 Canada 337 52 709 99 0 803 Chinese Taipei 297 49 x 0 751 apubli 314 98 731 64 1 186 Denmark 436 49 1 218 25 1 488 Finland 445 77 755 40 1 500 France 381 48 774 22 1 458 Germany 367 39 682 43 1 519 Greece 339 72 L 1044 47 L 1 086 L Hungary 387 84 x 1 241 India L Ireland 498 16 837 97 1 301 Italy 447 66 333 68 1 505 Japan 537 45 666 60 1 109 Korea 547 12 956 91 1 526 Luxembourg 208 04 L 629 94 1 271 Mexico 226 69 i 0 613 Netherlands 422 92 1 041 64 1 667 New Zealand 396 21 y 0 972 Norway F 1 256 93 1 669 Poland 322 83 781 54 1 169 Portugal 517 68 790 61 1 473 South Africa T Slovak Republic 246 17 L 1 208 L Spain 439 09 720 00 1 188 Sweden z 1 257 70 1 439 Switzerland 368 06 597 94 1 227 Turkey 639 35 473 86 1 963 United Kingdom 391 33 593 08 1 557 United States 341 38 620 24 0 622 A23 ja Prices are for Ist quarter 2006 or latest available L jb High sulphur Fuel oil for Canada India ireland Mexico New Zealand South Africa Turkey and
116. WER initiated TIMES GAMS run with VEDA BE 0 119 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 3 7 3 7 1 3 7 2 3 7 3 3 7 4 3 7 9 Bulk Loading Model Data into ANSWER TIMES via Import Model Data from Excel facility 120 Different Types of Worksheets in an ANSWER TIMES Standard Excel Workbook 120 Example of a REGIONS Worksheet cc cscccccceeseeeecceeeeceesaeeceeeseeeeceeesauaeeeesssaeseeeesaeeeess 121 Example otan ITEMS W OrkSMG C0 fesemciees er sesdevhacucedaneesdeninascuyiucen ae Tle ranah 121 Example of a TS DATA WorkSheet cccccsseecccceessececceeeeeeecaeeeeeeeseaaeseesseaaeeeesseaeeeeseeaneeess 122 Summary of the Operation of the Import Model Data from Excel facility ceeeeeeeeees 123 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 1 Introduction This section introduces the user to the TIMES model generator and the ANSWER TIMES user interface It also summarizes the contents of the remaining sections of this ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 1 1 The TIMES Model Generator The TIMES model generator that hereafter we will refer to as TIMES was developed in the late 1990 s by the International Energy Agency s IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme ETSAP To quote directly from chapter 1 of Documentation for the TIMES Model Part authors Loulou Remme Kan
117. _GDPO GDP in the first period O TM_IVETOL Investment and energy tolerance O TM _KGDP Initial capital to GDP ratio O TM _EPVS Capital value share a QO TM_OPAC Switch for market penetration penalty function not used in TIMES HSA g The 10 TM_ parameters are used only for the TIMES MACRO Extension the REG_FIXT Year up to which model solution will be fixed in FIXBOH run is used only for a FIXBOH run in which initial periods are fixed and the REG_BNDCST and REG_CUMCST parameters are not in common use Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 68 3 3 4 TimeSlice Tab Sub Annual TimeSlices amp associated Data Parameters While TIMES practitioners sometimes build models that have only the ANNUAL TimeSlice it is far more common for TIMES models to contain sub Annual TimeSlices as well as the ANNUAL TimeSlice Where a TIMES model has sub Annual TimeSlices these should be specified on the TimeSlice Tab before entering data on tabs to the right of the TimeSlice Tab For a model with a very fine level of TimeSlicing that is with many TimeSlices specification via the TimeSlice Tab is impractical instead use the Import Model Data from Excel facility to specify sub Annual TimeSlices and their associated Data Parameters But note that in order to correctly specify this information in Excel it is necessary to understand the principles that are outlined below for specification via the TimeSlice Tab
118. a single non BASE DDS file was put out that contained that non BASE scenario s model data for each Internal Region and for trade between Regions The ANSWER TIMES Run Model facility also creates the following file that is used not as an input file for the TIMES GAMS run but as an Input file for a subsequent VEDA BE results handling run Input file to VEDA BE File Naming Convention where For BASETINY run results handling run lt casename gt is Run Case Name BASETINY is Run Name File containing topology RES lt casename gt VDT BASETINY VDT information The TIMES GAMS run creates the following Output files Output files from TIMES File Naming Conventions where For BASETINY run run lt casename gt is Run a Name E is Run Name GAMS listing file listing file lt casename gt LST gt BASETINYLST LST Quality Assurance Log QA_CHECK LOG QA_CHECK LOG Results file for ANSWER TIMES BASETINY ANT Results file for VEDA BE run lt casename gt VDS BASETINY VDS with user Sets Results file for VEDA BE run lt casename gt VDE BASETINY VDE with elements of each user Set Results file for VEDA BE run lt casename gt VD BASETINY VD with primal and dual run results To be precise it is not the TIMES GAMS run that creates the lt casename gt VD file this file is created by a call to the GDX2VEDA utility that is made immediately after the TIMES GAMS run has ended 2 4 5 Examining ANSWER TIMES Results for a
119. abase Example4 with Processes mdb retains a concrete example of a Dual purpose Demand Device named TLDVDSLOOO Key features of process TLDVDSLOOO are displayed in the following screenshots e Its Set Memberships are Fi Demand Device DMD with Annual Time Slice Level Set Memberships Units 1 0 Commodities Set Memberships 5 Process PRC 2 Additional Characterization a B Combined Heat amp Power CHF Annual Time Slice Level E Demand Device DMD ve ES Electric Generation ELE Weekly Time Slice Level Seasonal Time Slice Level eo FAL Energy PRE B Heat Generation HPL sven E Material by weight FRY E Material by volume PRY om Miscellaneous MISC Day Night Time Slice Level 7 Night Storage NST C Stockpiling STK e tis specified as a Process that has an Output based Activity with a single NRG input commodity DSL Diesel and with the two DEM output commodities TPKM_LD Transport PKM demand long distance and TPKM_SD Transport PKM demand short distance designated as the PCG for the process and also with ENV commodity CO2 designated as an output To see this move to the I O Commodities tab Input Output Commodities O nput based Process Activity f Outputbased Process Activity E gf di DEM wi qt di DEM Ej e Dual purpose Demand Device TLDVDSLO0OQO0 has the following parameters associated with it Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started
120. agnetic losses friction and other imperfections of actual devices The energy entering a process equals the energy exiting Energy efficiency is defined as the ratio of the desired usable energy output to the energy input In the electric motor example this is the ratio of the shaft power to the energy input electricity In the case of natural gas for home heating energy efficiency is the ratio of heat energy supplied to the home to the energy of the natural gas entering the furnace This definition of energy efficiency is sometimes called first law efficiency A more efficient provision of satisfying energy services not only reduces the amount of primary energy required but in general also reduces adverse environmental impacts Although efficiency is an important determinant of the performance of the energy system it is not the only one In the example of a home furnace other considerations include investment operating costs lifetime peak power ease of installation and operation and other technical and economic factors For entire energy systems other considerations include regional resource endowments conversion technologies geography information time prices investment finance operating costs age of infrastructures and know how The overall efficiency of an energy system depends on the individual process efficiencies the structure of energy supply and conversion sector and the energy end use patterns It is the result of compo
121. alue of 0 93 as follows Scenaio Parameter __ Region Process epeen eme gmm items ite Ie 1990 2000 2m0 ams 2 PM TPROCESSES ACT_EFF REG SREFMA L OL ANNUAL 0 0 9300 0 5300 0 5300 0 9200 0 For the mathematically inclined If we initiate a model run in which the associated GAMS LST file contains an Equation Listing see section 2 6 1 and then once an optimal solution has been obtained click on the View LST button and use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of EQ_ACTFLO that contains SREFO004 followed by finding the first occurrence of EQE_ACTEFF that contains ECCNGAS we will find the following two equations EQ _ACTFLO REG 2000 2000 SREFO04 ANNUAL VAR_ACT REG 2000 2000 SREF004 ANNUAL VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF004 DSL ANNUAL VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF004 GSL ANNUAL E 0 KOR _ ACTEFF REG 2000 2000 SREF004 NRG IN ANNUAL VAR_ACT REG 2000 2000 SREF004 ANNUAL 0 93 VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF004 OIL ANNUAL E 0 These two equations together enable us to conclude that we have been successful in specifying that the overall efficiency from input to output is 0 93 applying to each of DSL and GSL Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 95 3 3 7 12 Case 3 Process EDSLTUR output based 2 inputs 1 output input specific efficiencies Consider process EDSLTUR which is an example of an output base
122. ame Region and Description for the new TimeSlice Specify TimeSlice Level change Global TimeSlice Order if necessary and specify Parent TimeSlice Optionally enter Comment After clicking OK specify G_YRFR data value s NOTE Database has the Same TimeSlices in Every Region so TimeSlice Changes Apply in All Regions TimeSlice Information Scenario BASE TimeSliceCreation Name Region Description su REG Summer Level Global Order Parent TimeSlice Level Global TimeSlice Order J Time Slice ALL_TS E Annual ANNUAL Fall wE Seasonal SEASON Summer B Weekly WEEKLY B Day Night DAYNITE Parent TimeSlice Seasonal TimeSlice must have ANNUAL as Parent TimeSlice ANNUAL Annual OK Cancel 6 Enter SU and Summer in the Name and Description textboxes respectively and click on Seasonal SEASON to select the SEASON TimeSlice Level Again the Parent TimeSlice combobox will automatically adjust to ANNUAL The Global TimeSlice Order listview will automatically appear as above with SU added below the SEASON level TimeSlice FA that was defined at step 3 above The E icon is associated with SU to distinguish it as the new SEASON level TimeSlice that is being added ra Optionally use the ur button to move SU above FA in the Global TimeSlice Order listview since Summer occurs before Fall Alternatively wait until subsection 3 3 4 3 and carry out all Global TimeSlice Order
123. an Equation Listing see section 2 6 1 and replace LIMROW 0 by LIMROW 99 and also replace SET REDUCE YES by SET REDUCE NO and then once an optimal solution has been obtained click on the View LST button and use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of EQ _ACTFLO that contains ECCNGAS followed by finding the first occurrence of EQ PTRANS that contains ECCNGAS we will find the following two equations EQ ACTFLO DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS ANNUAL VAR_ACT DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS ANNUAL VAR_FLO DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS ELC ANNUAL E 0 EQ PTRANS DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS NRG ELC ANNUAL VAR_FLO DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS ELC ANNUAL 0 55 VAR_FLO DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS NGAS ANNUAL E 0 These two equations together enable us to conclude that the relationship between the process activity and the flow of the input commodity NGAS is VAR_ACT DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS ANNUAL E 0 55 VAR_FLO DEMO 2005 2005 ECCNGAS NGAS ANNUAL confirming that we have been successful in specifying that the efficiency is 55 0 55 Note For the tiny TIMES model we need to run with SET REDUCE NO Otherwise the substitutions that are carried out by the TIMES GAMS code with SET REDUCE YES to reduce the model to a smaller mathematically equivalent model make it difficult to understand the contents of the Equation Listing Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getti
124. arameter instances are added one at a time to the TS spread using the AddRow facility We start by detailing use of the AddRow facility to add the NCAP_COST parameter instance since this is more straightforward than adding the ACT_EFF parameter instance Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 32 12 13 In the TS spread right mouse click on the Parameter combobox and select the View Descriptions menu option tis Region Description ESRECCNGAS DEMO Combined cycle Gas Power Plant subset Parameters ec Process Specific TES Toggle Size Hide Empty Numeric Columns The Add Row Parameter Selection form will appear scroll down until NCAP _COST is visible and click on NCAP_COST to select it W Add Row Parameter Selection NCAP AFC NCAP AFH NCAP AFS NCAP APs NCAP BND NCAP BEME NCAP CEFF NCAP CEH NCAP CHPR NCAP CLAG Ii NCAP CLAG OUT NCAP CLED WCAP COMN IN NWlAP COM OUT NWClAP COST WOAP DCOST NCAP DELIF NCAP DISC NCAP DLAG WCAP DLAGe a IT TT TTT Availability of capacity for commodity group Pointer to availability change multiplier seasonal availability of capacity Change in capacity availability Bound on level of investment in new capacity in a period Back pressure mode efficiency or max gross efficiency Condensing mode efficiency Slope of a CHP pass out turbine Heat to power ratio of a CHP process Lagtime of a Commodity after new capacity ready input
125. arent TimeSlice combobox setting will default to the Seasonal TimeSlice that is first in alphabetical order 3 If necessary adjust the Parent TimeSlice combobox setting to select the appropriate Seasonal TimeSlice Here adjust the Parent TimeSlice combobox setting to select SU Parent TimeSlice Since the database has no Weekly TimeSlices this Day Night TimeSlice should have a Seasonal TimeSlice as Parent TimeSlice 4 Click on the OK button and new DAYNITE level TimeSlice of SUD Summer Day will be created in each Internal Region here just REG and in the special GLOBAL Region Also both TS PARENT and G_YRFR Seasonal fraction of the year parameter instances are created for each Internal Region here just REG for TimeSlice SUD Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter l f Sets Named rai Time Slices ALL _TS Sets Filter Named Filter Name Regon Description i ti its s itsi i is sSsSsS S S S SCCCC Status p ltem Management B ANNUAL REG Annual a Slice Sets FA _GLOBAL Fall FA REG Fall ew Copy bane e Edit su _GLOBAL Summer q a sU REG ae Select All Items Wove ES SUD _GLOBAL Summer Day SUD REG Summer Day Subset Parameters Time Slice Specific z T data 2 Scenario Parameter Region __ TimeSlic TimeSlice Value BASE G_YRFR REG
126. arget Then it explains how the model and different assumptions on the exogenous variables are used to carry out mental experiments and to build scenarios Some scenarios explore how assumptions of the uncontrollable variables determine the range of possible development paths of the systems exploratory scenarios Other scenarios evaluate whether the system can reach the desired targets and what set of measures are capable of bringing the system there policy scenarios Eventually this section reminds the reader of the importance of comparing the scenarios and to infer robust and hedging strategies A paragraph with the description of how analysts interface with policy and decision makers should have been added It should illustrate what problems are presented to the analysts and how analysts present their advice It should explain how policy makers and analysts together assess the likelihood of each scenario the trade off between target objectives and the robustness of strategies It should also warn analysts that all control strategies that they elaborate are questionable and in fact questioned But this has been omitted since the interface between policy makers and analysts depends too much on national and local circumstances 4 4 1 Preparation of the mental experiments 4 4 1 1 Representation of the system in a model Policy makers request analysts to identify and quantify the mix of control policies that guide the system towards the des
127. arios CHP expansion High real yield _ requirements Low electricity price Unlimited Limited gas supply Reference scenario Figure 4 15 Selection of scenarios in an events tree an example 4 4 3 Robust and hedging strategies In this area a strategy can be defined as a set of policies capable of bringing the system towards the intended target After building policy scenarios for each exploratory scenario by comparison across scenarios analysts identify the set of policies capable of bending each non intervention scenario toward the target Some policies appear once or twice others are effective in all or nearly all exploratory scenarios In this sense a robust strategy is the set of policies capable of bending the future towards the intended scenario in the widest range of evolution of uncontrollable variables Analysts face a more complex problem when a parameter is uncertain in the near future and will be known later A typical example is given by the climate sensitivity Cs Its value is now uncertain 1 5 8 This paragraph reproduces the content of a presentation given by Richard Loulou at the ETSAP Workshop held in Brasilia on November 19 23 2007 The graphs are taken from the results obtained by Richard Loulou Amit Kanudia Maryse Labriet Uwe Remme in the frame of the ETSAP participation to the Energy Modelling Forum 22 Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization and in Transition Work
128. arted Manual 33 Insert key so that the contents of the Add Row are displayed in the TS spread and the Add row is returned to its initial state The TS data spread will now appear as follows subset Parameters ec Process pecific T3 TID data 2 Scenario Parameter Region Process Comma CommGr CommGrou tem5 Jitem Ive 2005 2m0 ams 2020 L JBASE NCAP COST 2 DEMO ECCNGAS bo booo bo o o o dbo o p O aoooog0j400 0000 400 0000 400 0000 ee ee ee ee eee eee 16 Repeat steps 12 13 14 and 15 above to use the Add Row to add parameters NCAP_FOM and NCAP_TLIFE into the TS spread at step 15 with numeric values of 30 0 and 30 respectively in each Time Period The TS data spread will now appear as follows Subset Parameters ec Process Specific Ts TID data Scenario Parameter Region Process Commo Commer Comm roul tems Item i 2005 200 2m5 2020 BASE NCAP COST a DEMO ECCNGAS e e 400 000 400 0000 400 0000 400 0000 Po BASE NCAP_FOM_ JDEMOECENGAS 30 0000 30 0000 30 0000 30 0000 BASE NCAP TURE DEMO ECCNGAS e 8 E ee eee eee Now we detail use of the AddRow facility to add the ACT_EFF parameter instance As already noted this is slightly more complicated than using the AddRow facility to add a parameter instance such as NCAP_COST 17a Carry out step 12 above View Descriptions and at step 13 above select ACT_EFF on the Add Row Parameter Selec
129. as follows a TIMES MACRO Extension in ANSWER TIMES pdf b TIMES Stochastic Programming Extension in ANSWER TIMES Revised August 2012 doc TIMES Elastic Demand Extension in ANSWER TIMES Revised December 2011 doc TIMES Early Retirement of Capacity Extension in ANSWER TIMES doc TIMES Fix Initial Periods FIXBOH Option in ANSWER TIMES doc TIMES Elastic Demand Extension in ANSWER TIMES doc superceded by c TIMES Stochastic Programming Extension in ANSWER TIMES doc superceded by b TIMES Endogenous Technology Learning ETL Extension in ANSWER TIMES doc i TIMES Damage Extension in ANSWER TIMES doc Seee NN N NN DN IA lt Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 61 j TIMES Discrete Capacity Investment Extension in ANSWER TIMES doc k TIMES Time Stepped Solve TIMESTEP Option in ANSWER TIMES doc 1 TIMES Climate Extension in ANSWER TIMES doc Some of the documents above refer to older demonstration databases that may not be available in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Answer_Databases for the version of ANSWER TIMES that you have installed on your computer For example the Time Stepped Solve document above refers to database Example4 v661 mdb and the Stochastic Programming Extension document above refers to database Example4 v668 mdb e Simply use demonstration database Example4 mdb wherever you encounter a reference to database Example4 v66n mdb that is not available on your
130. at Plant SM IMPOSL1 IMPEXP Import of Diesel vw subset Parameters c Process Specific r Ts TID data 2 Scenario Parameter _ Region Process Commadity CommGroup Comf Item5 iteme IE 1990 zooo 2mo ais EUNGACHPEXT GaS ANNUY o ossoof ossoo 0 5500 0 5500 EUNGACHPEXT C02 GAS ANNU o s5eoooo 56 0000 56 0000 56 0000 TPROCESSE Sapin EUNGACHPEST bo oZ o o o ob oe L 0500 0 8500 ES NCAP_CEH_ 7A EUNGACHPEST dho o o o ooo o bE So o s oz 2202200 0 2200 TPROCEN S NCAP_CHPR 2 RS EUNGACHPEXT boo P 8500 l 0 8500 0 8500 7 m 20 m DIO a m g U TPROCESSES ahaa EUNGACHPEST pooo o b b TETN 7 450 000 1 450 000 1 450 000 eo bh bo o obo y o o 35 0000 35 0000 35 0000 jo 3 E b b 0 a ay ayoo aa F J m ol H TPROCESSES NCAP_TLIFE Add TPROCESSES Scenariy Parameter Piqgion Process TOP IN REG REG REG Add TPROCESSES ee a dedddacae a 2 2 2 2 a y So far as TS parameters are concerned note in particular the NCAP_CEH and NCAP_CHPR parameter instances that apply only to CHP Processes Each of the remaining TS parameter instances ACT_EFF FLO EMIS NCAP_AFA NCAP_COST NCAP_FOM NCAP_ILED NCAP_TLIFE is applicable to any TIMES Standard Process So far as TID parameters are concerned note in particular the PRC_ACTUNIT parameter instance The ANSWER TIMES New Process facility was used to creat
131. at although a CHP Process can be considered to be a TIMES Standard Process in most respects there are two TIMES Data Parameters NCAP_CEH and NCAP_CHPR that apply only to CHP Processes and that cannot be used for non CHP TIMES Standard Processes Note also that Parameters NCAP_CEFF and NCAP_BPME while currently available in ANSWER TIMES and in the TIMES GAMS code are associated with a very old TIMES CHP implementation and should not be used The following material on specifying a CHP plant was taken from ANSWER TIMES training course material created by Dr Uwe Remme and is reproduced here with his kind permission Elecivciy Backpressure Mode BF J Condensing FUEL ELC HEAT Mode Cond Max ratio electricity to heat a Pass out CHP turbine Cond elec pe Constant fuel coat ating Input line BP elec Area of operation Heat Heat Heat p Pass out o extraction turbine i Parameter WCAP_CEH r t pre al lt 1 electricity logs per unit of heat gained moving from condensing to backpressure mode indicates activity if measured in terme of electricity kj 1 heat gained per unit of electricity lossed moving tom backpressure to condensing mode indicates activity is measured in terms of total ouptut Celectricity plus heat ii Efficiencies Case a efficiencies must be specified for condensing point costs must be specified based on condensing mode e g investment costs Case bi efficiencies must be s
132. b to specify the Trade Matix for each Traded Commodity Traded Trade Matrix eg a peted ree o T Hatural Gas 8 Click on the Trade Matrix tab This part of the New Trade Process form initially appears as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 41 Use Commodity combobox to specify the Name of the Traded Commodity and then use checkboxes to TM Same as Master Clear TM specity the Trade Matrix restore TM Commodity ncas Natural Gas All Links Bi Directional Check TM Integrity In this Manual our focus is simply on using the Trade Matrix tab to specify the Trade Matrix for Commodity NGAS the Commodity being traded We do not discuss the TMS Mast operation of the buttons such as _TM Same asMaster_ 9 Note that NGAS is the Commodity that appears in the Commodity combobox and so the EXP IMP spread already displays NGAS in the Comm Row and Column To specify that Region IMPEXP exports NGAS to Region DEMO check the checkbox in the IMPEXP row and the DEMO column thereby specifying the Trade Matrix for Commodity NGAS Use Commodity combobox to specify the Hame of the Traded Commodity and then use checkboxes to specify the Trade Matrix Cormodity area Natural Gas EXPAIMP See _ DEMO IMPEXP NGAS IMPESP caf Comm 10 Click on the OK button at the bottom of the New Trade Process form The Trade Process Item IMPNGAS will be created in Region D
133. base Adding amp Deleting Regions 65 3 3 3 Global Tab Global Data Parameters ccccccccccccssecceeceeeeeceeceeseeeeeceeeeeceeseeaeeeeeeseaeeeeesaaees 65 3 3 4 TimeSlice Tab Sub Annual TimeSlices amp associated Data Parameters cceeeeeeeees 68 3 3 4 1 Creation OF SEASON TIMESIICES eiia e na ae o aa aaar akaida 68 3 3 4 2 Creation or DAY NITE TimeSliGE Seese e elie ecte see tecieee clas reed ese eeneeetleel eee 71 3 3 4 3 Specifying the Global Ordering of TimeSlices at Each TimeSlice Level ccceeeeeees 72 3 30 Commodity Tab Commodities amp associated Data Parameters ccccceccseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeees 74 3 3 5 1 Different Commodity Types Sets cccccccsssseeecceeeeeeeeeeeceeeeeeeeeeeeeceeeessseeeeeeeeeeesseaeaeeeeeeees 74 3 3 5 2 Specification of a Commodity that iS AN EMISSION cccccceecceceeeceeceeeeeeseeeeeseeeeeseeeeeeas 75 3 3 5 3 Data Parameters associated with Commodities cccccceeecceceeececeesceeceeecesseeeeeseeeeeseaeess 76 3 3 6 CommGroup Tab the role of Commodity Groups in ANSWER TIMEG c seeeeeeeeeeees 78 3 3 6 1 Using the CommGroup Tab to manually create a True Commodity Group cee 78 3 3 7 Process Tab Processes amp associated Data Parameters ccccccccccsseeeeceeeeeeseeeeeeaaeeeeeaees 81 3 3 7 1 The Main Types of TIMES Processes sisi ies eens haeensactoteaaced eave arie aaa aE 81 337 2
134. base Example4 with Processes mdb Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 93 3 3 7 10 Case 1 Process ECCNGAS output based 1 input 1 output overall efficiency Consider process ECCNGAS which is an example of an output based process that has single input commodity natural gas NGAS and single output commodity electricity ELC NGAS ELC ECCNGAS The efficiency of this simple output based process is defined as the amount of process activity amount of output commodity ELC that can be produced by one unit of flow of the input commodity NGAS and we saw previously in Section 2 that this efficiency is 55 0 55 For this simple output based process 1 No true commodity group needs to be created for the process 2 We specify parameter ACT_EFF with commodity NGAS in the CommGroup position and with numeric value of 0 55 indicating that 0 55 PJ of ELC can be produced from 1PJ of NGAS Scenario Parameter Region Process Commpsiapeemm rewmGanlitems ite 1 2005 20m0 2015 2020 JBASE ACT_EFF_ 7 DEMO ECCNHGAS Ql INGAS ANNUAL 0 0 5500 0 5500 0 5500 0 5500 Note that when specifying ACT_EFF for this output based process it is the input commodity NGAS that appears in the CommGroup position this is an efficiency from input to output For the mathematically inclined If we initiate a model run for run BASETINY in which the associated GAMS LST file contains
135. by choosing the crude oil input as the commodity flow defining the activity since the capacity of a refinery is often described by the amount of crude oil it can process This commodity or group of commodities is known as the Primary Commodity Group PCG for the process Where a group of commodities is identified each of them must be on the same side of the process that is each of them must be an output commodity or each of them must be an input commodity and also each of them must be of the same commodity type so each of them must be of type NRG or each of them must be of type MAT etc e Specify the capacity to activity conversion factor and often specify an availability factor e Specify one of more relationships that indicate how output commodity flows are related to input commodity flows That is specify one of more relationships where each such relationship states that the sum of the flows of 1 or more output commodities is a linear combination of the flows of 1 or more input commodities Such a linear combination can be viewed as a generalized efficiency for producing the output Or alternatively each such relationship might state that the sum of the flows of 1 or more input commodities is a linear combination of the flows of 1 or more output commodities To specify a relationship that involves a sum over 2 or more output input commodity flows it may be necessary to define a true commodity group that comprises the outp
136. ch as pipelines and electric grids are upstream technologies But in the same category are included all devices that use the energy supplied by energy plants and infrastructures Therefore refrigerators cooking ranges vehicles kilns and boilers are demand technologies In general an analysis includes all identifiable stages that transfer energy from outside into the system and inside the system from one energy good service to another In this category it is not easy to determine the level of detail that balances the need to represent the actual nature of the system and that to keep the representation of the system at a manageable and digestible size Usually hundreds of power plants are squeezed into a few dozens of classes millions of refrigerators into a few types etc 4 2 5 Connections the Reference Energy System The components commodities and technologies are then represented as a Reference Energy System RES a network representation of all of the technical activities required to supply various forms of energy to satisfy end use activities see Figure 4 6 Analytical formulations are described to examine all operations involving specific fuels including their extraction refinement conversion transport distribution and utilization Each of these activities is represented by a box process in the network for which efficiency environmental impact and cost coefficients may be specified The processes are connected by links which repres
137. countries In fact electricity is not a single commodity as there are as many electricity markets and prices as there are hours in a year A load curve shows how the demand for electricity heat or cooling etc varies over time An example for district heating production is shown in Figure 4 3 This load curve is made up of daily averages from Jan 1 to Dec 31 The diagram shows the typical pattern of high energy production during the winter and the small energy production during the summer for water heating The energy demand variation is an indication of the heating power demand i e the load curve contains information on both power and energy demand The load curve is often shown in a simplified form with load levels presented as monthly averages Figure 4 4 This makes the figure easier to read and it also makes calculations based on the load curve more practical to perform However a lot of information can be lost e g about peak load ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A11 1200 y 1000 800 7 600 7 MW 400 7 200 7y J F M A M J J A S O N D Figure 4 4 Monthly average load curve for district heating production Another way of representing the changing demand for energy is the load duration curve The duration curve associated with the previous district heating example is shown in Figure 4 5 This diagram is made up of the data from the detailed load curve The duration curve starts
138. ct All Items button and then changing the setting of the TS TS TID data and TID combobox to i we can display all parameter instances that have so far been specified for that Extension 4 For a concrete example of the final dot point above open the demonstration database Example4 mdb make BASE and DISCRETE INV the two selected scenarios with DISCRETE INV the editable scenario and then click on the Edit Data button move to the Parameter Tab and carry out steps 1 to 3 above and then click on the Select All Items TS TID data button and change the setting of the TS and TID combobox to We see displayed all parameter instances that have so far been specified for the Discrete Capacity Investment Extension Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter le Sets C oo EEN Capacity Investment Data Parameters Sets Filter Hamed Filter Ner eie menk E NCAP DISC Unit size of discrete capacity addition All 3 items selected Sets E NCAF_ SEMI Semi continyous capacity addition lower bound PRC_DSCHCAF Indicates process with discrete capacity additions Set Fi Hew copy Delete Browse Select ll bens Hove RES Ts TID data Scenario Parameter _ Region Process Unitsi i 1990 2000 2mo 201s 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 NCAP DISC IREG Ero UOT o 025 25 025 ozs 025 O25 O25 025 0 25 m
139. d Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 17 3 Click on the Global Tab You will see the following display in which the _ GLOBAL Region is initially selected in the Regions display and if you are using a recent version of ANSWER TIMES in which the G_DYEAR Parameter instance has been automatically generated so that all you need to do is specify its numeric value Tiny TIMESMode l ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Bun Tools Functions Help g Fl JEES E Al Y Edit Data Regions Filter Items All Scenarios All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Farameter Items Filter G Sets Hamed s1cnars SE GLOBAL Special region for data parameters with no REG arg Demo region Import E sport region Subset Parameters o Global fts TID data 2 Safe paars o ooe _ Step _1ve _20n5_ ao f ae Y 2000 a a a a ea a a Pore IG DVEAR BAL e ON PAdg BASE O en _ _ 2 _ A aa Database C VAnswerllIMESvb 4onewer Databases Ting IMESModel mdb Edit Scenario BASE 2 Note that ANSWER inserts a indicator in the first column of the data spread in the G_DYEAR row as a visual indicator that you need to specify the numeric value for the G_DYEAR Parameter instance 2 3 3 2 Specify G_DYEAR Parameter 1 The _GLOBAL Region must be selected in the Regions display as in the above screen Snapshot If the GLOBA
140. d Manual 4 Use the AddRow in the TID Data spread to define two COM_GMAP parameter instances that indicate that the Commodity Group SREFO05 O comprises the two commodities DSL and GSL After doing this the TID Data spread will appear as follows Scenarin Parameter _ Region _ Commodity CommGroup TimeSlice Value JM TPROCESSES COM GMAP 2 REG psl SREF0050 1 PM TPROCESSES COM GMAP REG GSL SREFO05 0 1 TPROCESSES Pw pp As we will see in the following subsection 3 3 7 having explicitly created true Commodity Group SREFO05 O in region REG we can now move to the Process tab select Process SREFO05 in region REG and use the AddRow in the TS Data spread to create an ACT_EFF parameter instance that involves the true Commodity Group SREFO05 O B SRE cea Dil Refinery J SREFOOS Input based Oil Refinery Subset Parameters C Process Specific frs TID data 2 __ Scenario mpini Fegin Process Copsbisomeimmmenca H TPROSSES ATLE a pN OAL Pac Terocesses ese cost fofas feam ff ee ee Scenario Parameter Region Process _ Com ltem3 Year Item Ite Value PM TPROCESSES PACLACTUNT IREG SREFOOS j ok PM JTPROCESSES PACLCAPACT PIREG SREFOOS i 00 PM TPROCESSES TOPIN fReG speros OIL PM OJTPROCESSES TOP OUT REG SREFOOS DSL o bho o o y PM TPROCESSES TOP OUT P REG SREFOOS GSL T ee eee ee eee eee Noble Soft Systems
141. d Details Prompt user to decide whether to Import for each Excel File that has errors Import only from Excel Files that are error free without prompting Import error free records from all Excel Files without prompting e Click on the Import button e f each Excel Workbook is error free the model data it contains will be imported into the Target Scenario of the ANSWER TIMES database e If an Excel Workbook contains errors the user can view an error log file and decide whether not to import error free records Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual Al 4 Appendix A Getting Started with the Problem Defining and Describing the Area of Study Contributed by Dr GianCarlo Tosato ETSAP Project Head This appendix is a primer on energy systems analysis Approaching energy as a system instead of a set of elements gives the advantage of identifying the most important substitution options that are linked to the system as a whole and cannot be understood looking at a single technology or commodity or secior Systems analysis applies systems principles to aid decision makers in problems of identifying quantifying and controlling a system While taking into account multiple objectives constraints resources it aims to specify possible courses of action together with their risks costs and benefits After examining the peculiarities of energy as a system this appendix illustrates how to
142. d process that has two input commodities diesel and gas DSL and GAS and a single output commodity electricity ELC DSL GAS ELC a EDSLTUR and where there are input specific efficiencies from input to output of 0 35 and 0 37 for DSL and GAS respectively meaning that e 0 35 PJ of ELC can be produced by 1PJ of DSL and e 0 37 PJ of ELC can be produced by 1PJ of GAS For this flexible output based process 1 No true commodity group needs to be created for the process This process is an example of a flexible process that does not require an associated true commodity group 2 We define two ACT_EFF parameter instances one for each of DSL and GAS in the CommGroup position as follows Scenario Parameter __ Region Process Cpsmepeemmepediems Ite 17E 1990 2000 2010 2015 2 PEG EDSLTUR DSL p ANQUAL o 0 3500 0 3500 0 3500 0 3500 0 3 PM JTPROCESSES ACT_EFF 2 REG EDSLTURN GAS _ UgWAIUAL O 0 3700 0 3700 0 3700 0 3700 0 37 For the mathematically inclined If we initiate a model run in which the associated GAMS LST file contains an Equation Listing see section 2 6 1 and then once an optimal solution has been obtained click on the View LST button and use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of EQE_ACTEFF that contains EDSLTUR we will find the following equation EQE_ACTEFF REG 2000 2000 EDSLTUR NRG IN SPD VAR ACT REG 2000 2000 BDSL
143. data From the analysis point of view the problem is transforming the energy flows in each cell of the energy balance into the compatible stock of existing technologies It normally happens that the stock of a set of technologies gas power plants and their efficiencies are not compatible with the amount of natural gas allocated in the balance to electric production or to the amount of electricity produced It takes patience and experience to assemble a compatible set and at times requires choosing between the energy balance and other data sources Table 4 3 Example of data needed for characterising energy technologies General Technical Economic Environment Labour amp Refe Material rences Technology Available size Currency GHG emissions Material Title Technology Sector Existing Capacity Investment Solid waste Steel Author Data quality Construction time Fixed O amp M Liquid waste Concrete Editor Technical Technical life Variable O amp M Gaseous waste _ Type availability Commercial Max availability Fuel Acustic impact __ Year availability Prototype Average Total ex Fuel Land use Labour Access availability Commercialization Energy input Total incl fuel Construction Market share Energy output Decommission Operation Installed capacity in different years Fl Soe Installed Installed Installed Installed a ak Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity sae MW MW MW MW voltage level 1955 1965 1985 2000
144. decisions and strategies more frequently but also increase the size of the problem and the amount of data to be processed Analysing the intersection between energy and climate change mitigation issues requires the adoption of a very long term perspective Energy infrastructure takes a very long time to build and has a useful life often measured in decades New energy technologies take time to develop and even longer to reach their maximum market share Similarly the impact of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activities develops over a very long period from decades to centuries while policy responses to climate change threats may only yield effects after considerable delay Analysis that seeks to tackle these issues must take a similarly long term view looking ahead at least thirty to fifty years 4 2 3 2 Time granularity The problem of intra annual time analyses is easily understandable by looking at the most important energy commodity of any system electricity Electricity is accessible everywhere in developed countries and satisfies the demand for many energy services of consumers Since this demand is different across countries for instance space heating and cooking is provided by electricity in some countries and not in others the primary energy weight of electricity varies from about 50 in Sweden and France to 27 in China Also the daily weekly and yearly profile of electric demand is different across
145. dity Tab Initially the Commodity Items display is empty Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 20 Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Sets Filter Hamed Filter ltem Management P ete 2 Select All Items ove RES Ol a I 2 3 5 1 Specify Commodity NGAS in Region DEMO 1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Commodity form MS New Commodity in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Commodity Check the Region combobox setting Specify Set Memberships and change Units if e necessary Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specify parameter data as appropriate Item Information Scenario p a sir TinyTIMESModel Bf Name Desc DEMO et Memberships Additional Characterization 4 Demand for Energy Services DEM Agricultural AGA B Commercial COML B Industrial IND 5B Nor Energy NE E Other OTH B Residential RES B Transportation TAM 2J Energy Carrier HAG B Conservation CONSA FS Electricity ELC E Fossil FOSSIL F High Temperature Heat HTHEAT FS Limited Renewable LIMRENE 4 Low Temperature Heat LTHEAT B Nuclear NUCLR B Synthetic SNTH B Unlimited Renewable FRERENEW Commodity Urita E Change Units ik Cancel 2 Enter NGAS in the Name textbox accept the current setting o
146. duced These Software Update documents are important because they are the only source of information about ANSWER TIMES facilities that have been introduced subsequent to version 6 5 5 As at January 2014 the complete set of these documents is as follows e ANSWER TIMES v6 6 8 Software Update March 2011 doc e ANSWER TIMES v6 7 2 Software Update October 2011 doc e ANSWER TIMES v6 7 5 Software Update March 2012 doc e ANSWER TIMES v6 7 9 Software Update December 2012 doc e ANSWER TIMES v6 8 1 Software Update September 2013 doc Some ANSWER TIMES software updates have been accompanied by a second document that contains more detailed information about a particular ANSWER TIMES feature that has been introduced subsequent to version 6 5 5 As at January 2014 the complete set of these documents is as follows e TIMES Simplified Dynamic Growth or Decay Constraints in ANSWER TIMES doc e Enhanced ANSWER TIMES Format for Import Model Data from Excel doc e Handling of Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES Additional Information doc Documents re use of ANSWER TIMES to work with TIMES Model Variant Extensions Also in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc there are 12 documents each of which describes in detail the mechanics of using ANSWER TIMES to work with a specific TIMES Model Variant Extension with reference to a specific TIMES demonstration database As at October 2013 the complete set of these documents with most recent documents appearing highest in the list is
147. e ANSWER TIMES software to achieve your intended results and for the installation use and results obtained from the software The information in this document is subject to change without notice Names and data used in examples are fictitious unless otherwise noted Copyright Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 This program the screen designs and the documentation are the property of Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd No part of this document may be reproduced stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic mechanical photocopying recording or otherwise for any purpose without the express written permission of Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd The furnishing of this document does not give you license to the copyright or other intellectual property except as expressly provided for in any written license agreement from Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 4 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual Contents T WN VOROCUIG HONS xseeeret satan gs suas sceteta ace unsecetenat A tec esesain nes atae so alata can eae edocs saa eeeeseen 7 1 1 The TIMES Model Generator esisin hearer asec eves O E hee ede nee 7 1 2 THE ANSWER MMES User Internatet cerina A E E A 7 1 3 Overview of the ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual cc cccsseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesaaeseeeeeees 8 2 Using ANSWER TIMES to build and run a tiny TIMES MOdel
148. e LHS treeview This causes four TimeSlice radio buttons and a single checkbox to appear under Additional Characterization on the RHS Click on the Day Night Time Slice Level radio button and accept the default setting of checked for the Import Export IRE checkbox Accept the default Process Activity Capacity Units of petajoules gigawatts and the default PRC_CAPACT value of 31 536 The New Trade Process form will appear as follows E New Trade Process in scenario BASE Enter Hame and Description for the new Trade Process Specity Type of Trade and Commodity Type and Naming Specity Set Memberships and change Units if necessary Use Traded Commodities andor Trade Matrix tabs to specity Traded Commodities Item Information SCenano b ASE Base scenario for Deno and Utopia models Name Desc BiT RADE ELC Bilateral Trade in Electricity Type of Trade Commodity Type and Naming f Bilateral Trade Market Trade Type NRG M J Same Commodity Name in All Regions S Set Memberships C Trade Process Additional Characterization oo EY Electric Generation ELE Annual Time Slice Level Energy PRE Seasonal Time Slice Level E Material by weight PRW Weekly Time Slice Level B Material by volume PRY LF D ay Might Time Slice Level tow PL Miscellaneous MISC ra poly Eset IRE Process Actwity Unita petajoules Process Capacity Units gigawatts PRC_CAPACT Value 31 536 Change Units 2 Click on
149. e Matrix tab circled above and To specify that export of diesel DSL occurs from region IMPEXP to region DEMO click on the checkbox in the IMPEXP row and the DEMO column To specify that export of diesel DSL occurs from region IMPEXP to region UTOPIA click on the checkbox in the IMPEXP row and the UTOPIA column The Trade Matrix tab will appear as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 103 Set Memberships Units Traded Commodities Trade Matrix Use Commodity combobox to specify the Name of the Traded Commodity and then use checkboxes to TH Same as Masher Clear TM specity the Trade Matris Pastore TM Commodity bsr O Diese All Links Bi Directional Check TM Integrity EXP IMP Cd DEMO UTOPIA IMPEXP MINAN w UTOFIA MPEP MIMA H a 4 Click on the OK button at the bottom of the New Trade Process form The Trade Process Item IMPDSL1 will be created in regions IMPEXP DEMO and UTOPIA and will become the current Item in the Trade Process Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Utopia_Demo_UC ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help FE el e Fal Edta z Recions Fier ltems a Scenarios All 7 Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter Sets Named rai Trade Processes E Sets Filter Named Filter ltem Manage
150. e Milestone ears for Run Model ee Fo 2020 2020 2022 aj Beginning Year and Ending Year rc B and E such that Milestone Years at middle rc User specites B for First Milestone fear of E f E andE halway between Milestone ears sad AE fen vensMiletenesvear Specify First B and Last E Specify First B Specity First B and Every E Clear B and E Auto generate B and E Load Default Milestone Save As Default Milestone Years B and E fears B and E Most likely you were not expecting to see a form as complicated as this when you clicked on the Specify Milestone Years button There are two reasons for the extra complications As well as specifying the Milestone Years for a TIMES run it is also necessary to specify the Beginning Year B and the Ending Year E for each Milestone Year For a given set of Milestone Years the TIMES model allows the user some flexibility as to what each Beginning Year B and Ending Year E can be The spread at the top of the form above displays the default Milestone Years M Beginning Years B and Ending Years E for the tiny TIMES model as determined by ANSWER TIMES In particular the checkboxes in the Milestone Year MY row indicate that the default Milestone Years are 2005 2010 2015 2020 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 49 For any TIMES model the default Milestone Years are initially set by ANSWER TIMES to compr
151. e Series Data Parameters for Trade between regions Data with two region indexes are specified TID Trade Data TID TRADE TID Data Parameters for Trade between regions with two region indexes are specified Time Series amp TID TS amp TID TRADE Time Series amp TID Data Parameters for Trade between Trade Data regions with two region indexes are specified Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 121 Each of the above Worksheets e Has a comma delimited region list in cell B1 of the sheet except for Trade Worksheets e For rows from 2 onwards contains data in a simple format that ANSWER expects according to the special cell A1 indicator Note There is an easy way of seeing what the ANSWER TIMES format for each of the different types of Worksheets is ANSWER TIMES has a File Export Scenario Data to Excel facility see section 2 12 of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual that when invoked creates an Excel Workbook containing each of the different types of Worksheets in precisely the same format that is required by the Import Model Data from Excel facility To be precise all Worksheets except TS amp TID DATA and TS amp TID TRADE are created 3 7 2 Example of a REGIONS Worksheet A screenshot showing the format required for a REGIONS Worksheet follows Region Information GLOBAL Special region for data parameters with no REG ALL REG Internal Regions 6 REG1 Region 1 ALL_RE
152. e process and also with ENV Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 84 commodity CO2 Carbon Dioxide designated as an output To see this move to the I O Commodities tab Set Memberships Units Input Output Commodities C Input based Process Activity f OQutput based Process Activity A Commn Description Type Commout Description Type PCG Carbon Dioxide Electricity It is customary that Electric Generation Processes are specified as having an Output based Activity and with the single NRG electricity output commodity of such a Process being designated as the PCG e Electric Generation Process EUHCOUSCCON has the following parameters associated with it EUHCOUSCCON REG Electricity utility hard coal USC electricity only SM EUNGACHPEST REG Electricity utility natural gas CHP extraction condensing SM we Subset Parameters Process Specific hal Ts TID data Scenario Parameter Region Process Commodi CommGroup Comf items teme j 1990 200 2mo ams 4 PM TPROCESSES JACT_EFF 2 REG EUHCOUSCCON Heo f JANNUAL O 0 4500 0 4500 0 4500 04500 M TPROCESSES FLOLEMIS REG EUHCOUSCCON coz Heo JANNUAL o 340000 94 0000 s4 oooo 34 0000 3 PM _ TPROCESSES NCAP_AFA REG EUHCOUSCCON bo b db uP jo osoo osooo o sooo 0 3000 TPROCESSES NCAP_COST REG EUHCOUSCCON bo b b db J0 2300 0000 2 300 0000 2 30
153. e rates Using these as inputs the TIMES model aims to supply energy services at minimum global cost more accurately at minimum loss of surplus by simultaneously making equipment investment operating them supplying primary energy and energy trade decisions by region For example if there is an increase in residential lighting energy service relative to the reference scenario perhaps due to a decline in the cost of residential lighting or due to a different assumption on GDP or population growth either existing generation equipment must be used more intensively or new possibly more efficient equipment must be installed The choice by the model of the generation equipment type and fuel is based on the analysis of the characteristics of alternative generation technologies on the economics of the energy supply and on environmental criteria TIMES is thus a vertically integrated model of the entire extended energy system In TIMES as in its MARKAL forebear the quantities and prices of the various commodities are in equilibrium i e their prices and quantities in each time period are such that the suppliers produce exactly the quantities demanded by the consumers This equilibrium has the property that the total surplus is maximized The fact that the price of a commodity is equal to its marginal value is an important feature of competitive markets A mature TIMES model may include several thousand technologies in all sectors o
154. e the Process EUNGACHPEXT and so automatically generates as the PCG a true commodity group comprising the two output commodities ELC and HEAT with name EUNGACHPEXT G that appears in the Item3 CommGroup position of the PRC_ACTUNIT parameter instance Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 88 If you move to the CommGroup tab and select EUNGACHPEXT G you will see that it has associated TID COM_GMAP parameter instances specifying ELC and HEAT EUMGACHPEST G REG FCG for EUNGACHPEST Electricity utility natural gas CHF estra SM i subset Parameters q Commodity Group L Scenario Parameter Fegion Commodity CommGroup Time Value M TPROCESSES COM GMAP 7 REG ELC EUNGACHPEXT G re a MM TPROCESSES COM GMAP EAT EUNGACHPEST G 1 an 3 3 7 6 Specifying a Dual purpose Demand Device Process An earlier draft version of this Getting Started Manual contained material on specifying Dual purpose Demand Devices This material was difficult to grasp Dual purpose Demand Devices are an advanced TIMES feature and for now it has been decided that this material is not appropriate for a Getting Started manual The subsection heading has been retained to permit easy reversal of this decision in a future version of this Manual Notwithstanding that no explanation of Dual purpose Demand Devices is provided in this subsection the non BASE scenario TPROCESSES of the dat
155. ecifying a new TIMES Process The overview of what is involved in specifying a new TIMES Process is as follows e Ensure that you have already specified the Commodities that are Inputs and Outputs for this Process do this on the Commodity Tab see subsection 2 3 5 e Move to the Process tab bring up the New Process form and specify the Process Name Region and Description Then specify the Process Set Memberships and Units Finally specify the Input and Output Commodities for the Process along with the associated Primary Commodity Group PCG and exit the New Process form e The new Process will be added to the Process Items display with some TID data parameters e g related to the Input and Output Commodities and the PCG automatically generated e Tocomplete the specification of the Process you need to specify additional TIMES TS and TID data parameters e g related to efficiency costs lifetime For comprehensive details regarding the creation of Processes see Section 15 Handling of Processes in ANSWER TIMES in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual Here we detail what is required to create Processes ECCNGAS and RELCHPUMP for the tiny TIMES model First click on the Process Tab Initially the Process Items display is empty Global Time5lice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter ltems Filter E Sets C Named H11 Processes PRC Sets Filter Hamed Filter ltem
156. egion DEMO and will become the current Item in the Process ltems display as shown in the screen snapshot below Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling EBR File Edit View Bun Tools Functions Help a Fl JEES E Alv Edit Data Regions Filter Items All Scenarios All Global Time5lice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Farameter Itema Filter l l E Sets Named fan Processes FRC Sets Filter Hamed Filter lem keneremeni ay Curent Process 5 ECCNGAS Combined cycle Gaz Power Plant ECCNGAS Sets New Copy Delete Edit Select All Items e RES Subset Parameters c Process Specific ts TID data Scenario Parameter Region Process Comma Comm r CommGrou item Item 1 2005 2010 205 2020 _ LL Database C V4answerlIMESv6 ansiwer Databases Tiny TIMES Model mdb Edit Scenario BASE 2 Note that TID parameter instances PRC_ACTUNT PRC_CAPACT TOP IN and TOP OUT for the Process are automatically generated with appropriate numeric values 11 To complete the specification of Process ECCNGAS the following additional TIMES parameter instances need to be specified it happens that they are all TS parameters ACT_EFF Activity efficiency for a process e NCAP_COST Investment cost for new capacity e NCAP_FOM Fixed operating and maintenance cost e NCAP_TLIFE Technical lifetime of a process These p
157. ellaneous MISC Process Activity Urita petajoule E Process Capacity Units petajoules annum PAC_CARACT Value f Change Units Ok Cancel 5 Click on the I O Commodities tab 6 Accept the default of Output based 7 Use the Add Comm button below the CommIN spread to specify that ELC is an Input Commodity 8 Use the Add Comm button below the CommOUT spread to specify that RHEAT is an Output Commodity 9 To indicate that RHEAT is the PCG Primary Commodity Group for this Process check the PCG checkbox in the RHEAT row so that we have Input Output Commodities Input based Process Activity f Dutput based Process Activity Commn Desciption Type Commit _Desciiion Tee l Peg t m Electricity RHEAT Residential Heat I a 10 Click on the OK button at the bottom of the New Process form The Process Item RELCHPUMP will be created in Region DEMO and will become the current Item in the Process Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 36 Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit wiew Rum Tools Functions Help A F JEE El Alv Edit Data Regions Filter Items All Scenarios All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter E Sets Named fan Processes PRC Set
158. elp F JEE Ell hd Region Management Batch Management Data Management Scenarios Selected Scenarios Modified Modified _DELETED Items deleted from Dat 2072 05 25 16 48 2012 05425 16 48 Tiny TIME SModel 2012 05 30 23 44 CA EASE Tin TIMES Model 2012705725 16 48 2012 05 30 23 44 Mew Copy Delete Edit Browse Data Edit Data Run Model D Eatch Run to bring up the Run Model form 2 4 1 Overview of the operation of the Run Model facility An overview of the operation of the Run Model facility is as follows e Use the Run Model form to specify the particulars settings of the TIMES run to be carried out Most of the time only a few of the default settings on the Run Model form will need to be changed Once all settings are as desired click on the OK button e ANSWER will generate the files needed for the TIMES GAMS run and will initiate the run e The TIMES GAMS run will occur in a Command Prompt window If an optimal solution is obtained the run Results will be written to a text file e The run Results will be automatically imported into the ANSWER TIMES database 2 4 2 Using the Run Model facility for the Tiny TIMES Model Overview In this overview we want you to see the entire operation of the Run Model facility as outlined in subsection 2 4 1 above as quickly as possible without being distracted by explanations of various features of the Run Model form So in this subsection that demo
159. ely 45 4545 but instead we see a numeric value of 56 8182 which is the numeric value for VAR_ACT L in 2010 This behaviour occurs because IMPNGAS has no NCAP_COST parameter e To reconcile the numeric value of 0 7927 for VAR_NCAP L and VAR_CAP L for Process ECCNGAS with the VAR_ACT L value of 25 0000 we need to remember that this Process has GW rather than PJ annum as its Capacity Units Thus it has a PRC_CAPACT value of 31 536 and hence we would expect both VAR_NCAP L and VAR_CAP L to be 25 0000 31 536 0 7927 GW They are The numeric value of 100 000 PJ annum for VAR_NCAP L and VAR_CAP L for Process RELCHPUMP matches the VAR_ACT L value of 100 0000 PJ as we might have expected Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 56 2 5 Non BASE Scenarios This section is not specifically related to the tiny TIMES model but is included here because Section 3 assumes a knowledge of the role of non BASE scenarios and how to create them An ANSWER TIMES database will usually contain e The BASE scenario which is a complete depiction of the energy system under business as usual conditions Every ANSWER TIMES database contains a BASE scenario and most users choose for it to provide a complete depiction of their energy system under business as usual conditions e Anumber of non BASE scenarios that represent possible variations to the business as usual conditions We say possible va
160. em s Unit Units for an Item that has Units should be specified in cell E of the row possibly as a comma delimited pair of Units e The ltem s Set Memberships should be specified in cell F of the row some comments are needed regarding what is required in cell A and cell B of the row Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 3 7 4 122 e f non blank and not a comment row cell A contains a comma delimited region list where the Regions in this region list are a subset of the regions specified in cell B1 Items will be created for each of the Regions in this region list Where cell A for a row is blank then the region list for that row is inherited from the most recent non blank region list above it e Cell B of the row must contain a single character indicating the type of Item E for Commodity D for Commodity Group T for Process C for User Constraint W for TimeSlice B C D F ITEMS GLOBAL REG1 REG2 REG3 Commodity Items for REG1 REG2 REG3 regions REG1 REG2 REG3 E C02 Carbon Dioxide kt COM ENV ANNUAL GHG E DSL Diesel PJ COM NRG ANNUAL FOSSIL E DUMMY dummy commodity PJ COM NRG ANNUAL FRERENEW E ELC Electricity PJ COM NRG DAYNITE ELC E GAS GAS PJ COM NRG ANNUAL FOSSIL E GSL Gasoline PJ COM NRG ANNUAL FOSSIL E HCO Coal PJ COM NRG ANNUAL FOSSIL E HEAT Low Temp Heat PJ COM NRG DAYNITE LTHEAT E HYD Hydro Power PJ COM NRG ANNUAL FRERENEW E OIL Oil PJ COM NRG ANNUAL FOSSIL E RH Reside
161. emember that some impacts of energy use which can be captured by these type of systems analysis are currently not fully reflected in market prices e g external damage costs The TIMES model generator uses the input parameters of each element of the RES including the demand response elasticities and builds automatically all the sets of inverse supply and demand cost curves 4 4 The systems analysis approach control This section highlights the last step of energy systems analysis its real raison d tre In fact policy makers and decision makers support energy systems analysis because they need to identify effective policies and understand the effectiveness of their strategies before taking action After identifying and quantifying the system as outlined above analysts carry out mental experiments in order to understand where the system tends to go and how it reacts to different control policies This section first explains why it is necessary to represent the system and its development in a model i e in a set of interrelated mathematical variables representing the state of the system Secondly it illustrates how the system boundaries and the external world are represented by two sets of exogenous variables uncontrollable and controllable Thirdly it lists possible targets of decision making in the energy sector This is followed by examples of policy instruments that can be used to control the energy system and reach the t
162. enario facility We also assume that CO2 EMIS is the only non BASE scenario in the TinyTIMESModel database Given these assumptions if we clicked on the Add button the Scenario Selection form that is displayed would appear as follows E Scenario Selection multi select allowed HER Modified epCOZEMIS Add CO and associated CO2 Emissions Parameters 207131019 16 32 OK Cancel If we clicked on the OK button then on return to the Run Model form we would see that the Scenarios comprising this run display would appear as follows Scenarios comprising this rur Modified BASE Tiny TIME SModel 201 3 09 25 21 41 CO2 EMIS Add CO and associated COZ Emissions Parame 2013 10 19 16 32 Regions Now if we were to click on the OK button at the bottom of the Run Model form we would initiate a TIMES GAMS run involving the BASE scenario data together with the CO2 emissions data specified in the non BASE scenario CO2 EMIS e Of course before clicking on the OK button it might be a good idea to go back to the top of the Run Model form and change the Run Name and Description 2 4 3 6 Regions button The Run Model form itself does not display the Internal Regions for a Run To browse edit the Internal Regions for a Run click on the Regions button to bring up the following form Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 51 2 4 4 E Run Model Select Reg
163. ent the commodities The network is quantified for a given year by the level of the energy demands the energy flows through the supply activities all associated technologies in a chain that are required to serve those demands The RES begins from the existing capacity in place calibrated for the first year commodity flows In addition the RES contains technologies that are Known or speculated but not yet available on the market or due to too high costs or lack of reliability are not competitive today but may be commercial in the future The Reference Energy System thus is a schema used to represent the full structure of the energy system being studied at an appropriate level of detail The RES describes the flow of energy from the sources to the final use It shows all flows of energy from the primary energy supply large scale and small scale energy conversion different distribution forms and the final use of energy in different sectors Additionally the RES usually contains useful information on energy demand and even energy services see Figure 4 6 It may also show associated emissions at each point in the network The RES however is not a geographical representation of the energy system except to the extent that multiple regions may be represented 11 Sometimes the undesired commodities are included in categories different from the demanded The latter have a positive price the former a negative price determined by the e
164. equence of steps e Observation of the preferred development path of the system without exerting any additional control base case or business as usual scenario BAU e Exploration of alternative development trajectories in the space of events through different assumption of the non controllable exogenous variables alternative exploratory scenarios they are intended to explore the effect of uncertainties on exogenous variables exploratory scenarios are a sort of a sensitivity analysis on assumptions and identification of key factors that might affect the future of the energy economy e Experimentation of different control strategies and policies capable of bending the each uncontrolled development paths exploratory scenario towards the desired target s policy scenarios and e Selecting the control strategies that most frequently if not for all scenarios make the system reach the target robust strategies and finding out hedging strategies Since the range of uncertainty or arbitrariness about data characterising the future is very high the effect of uncertainty is explored through different assumptions only on the most important set of exogenous assumptions The modellers challenge is to explore the widest possible areas of uncertainties with a limited number of scenarios ETSAP has developed tools for evaluating the impact of several energy related decisions in the four main dimensions energy engineering ec
165. equilibrium model to generate a set of coherent total and sectoral GDP growth rates in the various regions Note that GEM E3 itself uses other drivers as inputs in order to derive GDP trajectories These GEM E8 drivers consist of measures of technological progress population degree of market competitiveness and a few other perhaps qualitative assumptions 2 The own price dependence is embodied in the TIMES model once the elasticity is declared ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A30 supplying energy services to the consumers does not deprive them of the right to enjoy public goods such as health and environment sustainability The problem starts when these generic goals have to be converted into precise targets For instance some country may want to develop its own domestic resource in order to supply at least 55 of the domestic demand in 20 years Another region has the target to reduce acid deposition hence emission of precursors such as sulphur and nitrogen oxides to 20 of the present values in 30 years in order to preserve domestic forests The global community could establish a target to half carbon dioxide emissions in 50 years Are these targets feasible At what cost How In establishing the targets the problem is that sometime they are contrasting Although in general they might be shared by all policy makers the emphasis and the numerical targets are different depending on who formulates the goals ene
166. er Kone UE DEMO Electricity r Sets DEMO Natural Gaz IMPEXP Natural Gas New Copy Delete Edit DEMO Residential Heat i ae Select All Items Hove RES Subset Parameters jac Commodity Specific T TID data M Nio Param Pegon Common Commodity Timestc Rem ie 205 2m0 2015 220 PG ae ee a ae eee SE a a ee ee ee heee paana a a hens pere f vae es o a Note that for Demand Commodity RHEAT the TS Data Parameter COM PROJ Demand baseline projection is automatically generated and we need to specify its numeric values Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 27 6 Enter 100 125 150 175 in the cells that are circled above namely the 2005 2010 2015 2020 column cells in the COM_PROuJ row The TS data spread will now appear as follows Scenario Parameter Region Commod Commodity Timeslic teme iE 2005 2mo 2m5 2020 ee e apeo per a A T o o a 1 a a E a padi BASE 7 For the tiny TIMES model no other TS or TID Data Parameters are required to complete the specification of RHEAT in Region DEMO 2 3 6 Process Tab specify Processes amp associated Data Parameters The Processes Process Items for a TIMES model should be specified on the Data Screen Process Tab except that Processes that are Trade Processes should be specified on the TradeProcess Tab see subsection 2 3 7 2 3 6 1 Overview of what is involved in sp
167. er 2 Discrete Investment Data Para meter E Elastic Demand Data Parameter EX ETL Data Parameter B FSBOH Time Stepped Data Parameter B MACRO Data Parameter B Retirement of Capacity Data Parameter oF Stochastic Data Parameter Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 114 and click OK 3 The Parameters listview now displays just the three parameters NCAP_ DISC NCAP_SEMI PRC_DSCNCAP that are specific to the Discrete Capacity Investment Extension Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter G Sets raea EES Capacity Investment Data Parameters Sets Filter l Item Management Ee ML AF_ DISC Unit size of discrete c apa acity addition a a a B NCAP_SEMI Semi continuous capacity addition lower bound PAC_DSCNCAP Indicates process with discrete capacity additions Set MM New Copy De opi De mol at AT Ibo bi Generically there are a number of reasons why it is beneficial to have displayed in the Parameters listview just those parameters that are specific to a particular TIMES Extension This clutter free display reminds us what these parameters are e For any Extension while remaining on the Parameter Tab we can use the AddRow in the TS and or TID data spreads to specify all of the TS and or TID parameter instances that are specific to that Extension By clicking on the Sele
168. er Comment After clicking OF specify parameter data as appropriate Item Information acenara g ask exanple4 demonstration database Hame Desc FEG Set Memberships Commodity COM E Demand for Energy Services DEM B Agricultural AGR B Commercial COML E Industrial IND E Mon Energy NE E Other OTH E Residential RES EB Transportation TAN E Energy Carrier NAG E Conservation CONSRY E Electricity ELC B Fossil FOSSIL E High Temperature Heat HTHEAT E Limited Renewable LIMRENEW Low Temperature Heat LTHEAT E Nuclear NUCLR E Synthetic SYNTH i ow Unlimited Renewable FRERE ME G Environmental Indicator ENW E Greenhouse Gas GHG E Other OTHENY a Material MAT aE Volume MAT_ OL a BBL Weight MAT WT B Financial Indicator FIN Units Commodity Units Change Units TK Cancel The majority of TIMES models have Commodities in each of the DEM NRG and ENV Commodity Groups and it is becoming increasingly common to also have some Commodities in the MAT Commodity Group At this point only a minority of TIMES models have any Commodities in the FIN Commodity Group Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 75 In ANSWER TIMES sub groups are specified for each of the main Commodity Groups except FIN So for example seven sub groups AGR COML IND NE OTH RES TRN are specified for the main Commodity Group DEM e
169. es YAR_CUMCOMMNET L Cumulative Hett Commodity Level VAR_CUMCOMPRD L Cumulative Commodity Production VAR _CUMPLO L Cumulative Process Flow WAR FLO NOL Flow Into a Process by TimeSlice all vintages WAR FLO OUT L Flow Out of a Process by TimeSlice all vintages WAR _IRE EsP L Interregional Exchange EXPort by TimeSlice all vint E YAR_IRE IMP L Interregional Exchange MPort by TimeSlice all wint New Capacity Installed in a Period T3 data Bi Case Parameter Region Process TimeSlice 2005 N 2mo 2m5 2020 VARLACT L DEMO ECCNGAS ANNUAL f 25 0000 31 2500 37 5000 43 75001 J BASETINY VAR_ACT L DEMO IMPNGAS ANNUAL f 45 4545 56 6182 68 1818 79 5458 JBASETINY VAR_ACT L DEMO RELCHPUMP ANNUAL f 100 0000 25 0000 150 0000 176 0000 JBASETINY VAR_LCAPL DEMO ECCNGAS f 07927 BASETINY VAR_CAP L DEMO IMPNGAS f 5eme BASETINY VAR_LCAPL DEMO RELCHPUMP 100 0000 BASETINY WAR_NCAP L DEMO ECCNGAS 07927 f 01982 01982 01982 J BASETINY VAR_NCAP L DEMO IMPNGAS 56 5182 f Ooooo 7395455 0 0000 L BASETINY VAR_NCAP L DEMO RELCHPUMP 100 0000 25 0000 25 0000 125 0000 7 For the Milestone Year 2005 is it easy to see that these flows make sense Well not completely easy as it happens We might have thought that VAR_NCAP L and VAR_CAP L for Process IMPNGAS would both have the same numeric value as for VAR_ACT L nam
170. es such as the amount of recovered oil that are partly dependent on system prices because the reservoir cultivation techniques the technology to displace the oil in place and the number of perforation depend on the available investments Another set of exogenous assumptions is the future development of the demand for energy be it primary final useful or energy service Several studies on historical time series or cross section analyses of macro economic indicators help making demand projections based upon selected drivers such as population households GDP etc Demands are projected through simple formulas such as Elasticitytodriver x Elasticitytoprices Demand Driver prices Although the behaviour of the independent drivers is hardly controllable through policies the dependence on prices via elasticities makes demands partly controllable through prices Projecting the price of import export commodities should be linked to the assumed availability of each resource But rules are not easy to defend with an international market that has shown a ten fold increase of crude oil price from 10 to 100 bbl in six years Furthermore exogenous price projections may include taxes and subsidies a policy dependent component 4 4 1 3 Objectives and targets Controlling the future development of energy systems is dictated by several needs In order to ensure people that they will continue to be able to satisfy their demand for energ
171. es the Each TimeSlice option is considered impractical and is not allowed Correspondence between 6 most common types of TIMES User Constraints and 6 separate non BASE scenarios in the demonstration ANSWER TIMES database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb Type of TIMES User Figure 5 6 Branch Non BASE Scenario Non BASE Scenario Constraint Description Name Description EQILUCRTS Each Region Each REG UCRTS By Region User Defined Period Each TimeSlice Constraint EQIUCRT Each Region Each REG UCRT By Region User Defined Period Summing over Constraint sum over TimeSlices timeslices EQI_UCR Each Region Summing REG UCR By Region User Defined over Periods Summing Constraint sum over over TimeSlices periods timeslices EQI UCTS Summing over Regions XREG UCTS Cross Region User Each Period Each Defined Constraint sum TimeSlice over regions EQIL UCT Summing over Regions XREG UCT Cross Region User el Each Period Summing Defined Constraint sum over TimeSlices over regions timeslices EQI_ UC Summing over Regions XREG UC Cross Region User Summing over Periods Defined Constraint sum Summing over over regions periods TimeSlices timeslices The example User Constraint within each non BASE scenario is given the same Name as the scenario 3 3 9 2 Specification of User Constraint REG UCRT in non BASE scenario REG UCRT Perhaps the most commonly occurring type of TIMES User Constraint is one that is defined for a
172. escription Type PCG Natural Gas TEL Electricity 9 To indicate that ELC is the PCG Primary Commodity Group for this Process check the PCG checkbox in the ELC row so that we have Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 31 Input Output Commodities nput based Process Activity f Dutput based Process Activity o Commi Description XS Te J Commot Description Type PCG NGAS Natural Gas NAG JELC Electricity NAG a In the current version of ANSWER TIMES version 6 8 1 the PCG checkbox must be checked even when there is just a single Output Commodity In the next version of ANSWER TIMES where an Output based Process has a single Output Commodity it will not be necessary to check the PCG checkbox ANSWER will assume that the PCG must be the single Output Commodity and will behave as though the PCG checkbox had been checked by the user In Section 3 we will encounter Processes which have two or more Output Commodities For such Processes it is necessary to check the appropriate checkbox or checkboxes in the PCG column to indicate which Commodity or which Commodities of the same Type comprises comprise the PCG for the Process Where the PCG comprises at least two Commodities we say that the PCG is a true Commodity Group 10 Click on the OK button at the bottom of the New Process form The Process Item ECCNGAS will be created in R
173. f DEMO in the Region combobox and enter Natural Gas in the Description textbox so that the Item Information frame appears as follows ltem information SCENANO p h gE TinyTIMESModel Name Desc GAS DEMO Natural Gas Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 21 3 Specify the Set Memberships by clicking on the Fossil FOSSIL leaf node leaf nodes have icon By in the tree view When you do this Time Slice Level options appear under Additional Characterization Accept Annual Time Slice Level as the selected radio button Set Memberships aa Commodity COM Additional Characterization Annual Time Slice Level es Demand for Energy Services DEM i B Agricultural AGR Seasonal Time Slice Level E Commercial COML Weekly Time Slice Level sE Industrial IND C Day Night Time Slice Level E Non Energy NE E Other OTH l E Residential RES nB Transportation TRIN 0 Energy Carrier NAG EL Conservation CONSAY BY deei ens sn in Hoh Eer Heat HTHEAT vee B Limited Renewable LIMAENEW 4 Accept the default Commodity Units of petajoules The New Commodity form appears as follows l New Commodity in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Commodity Check the Region combobox setting Specify Set Memberships and change Units if F necessary Optionally enter Comment After clicking OK specify parameter data as appropriate ltem In
174. f sub Annual TimeSlices see Section 14 Handling of TimeSlices in ANSWER TIMES in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual In particular it is suggested that you read subsection 14 1 1 ANSWER TIMES TimeSlice differences from the TIMES documentation regarding the ANSWER TIMES parameter TS_ PARENT that replaces the TIMES parameter TS_ MAP e The specification of TimeSlices in ANSWER TIMES as detailed in Section 14 of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual allows for the possibility that different Regions might have different TimeSlices in addition to allowing for the much more common situation in most TIMES models of the same TimeSlices occurring in every Region e If in ANSWER TIMES we had sought to handle only the situation of the same TimeSlices occurring in every Region some aspects of the specification of TimeSlices could have been simplified 3 3 4 1 Creation of SEASON TimeSlices As noted above the ANSWER TIMES demonstration models involves the ANNUAL SEASON and DAYNITE TimeSlice levels The ANNUAL TimeSlice is automatically defined by ANSWER The SEASON level TimeSlices should be defined before attempting to define the DAYNITE level TimeSlices To define a new SEASON level TimeSlice of FA Fall 1 Move to the TimeSlice tab and click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New TimeSlice form Initially the Name and Description textboxes will be Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting
175. f the energy system energy procurement conversion processing transmission and end uses in each region Thus TIMES is not only technology explicit it is technology rich as well Furthermore the number of technologies and their relative topology may be changed at will purely via data input specification without the analyst ever having to modify the model s equations The model is thus to a large extent data driven It should also be noted that both MARKAL and TIMES are open in that the data transformations thereof mathematics and model generator source code are all fully transparent and documented 4 4 1 2 Uncontrollable and controllable exogenous variables Endogenous variables represent elements of the system and describe its state exogenous variables represent elements not included in the system The content of the two categories depends on the definition of the system boundaries Exogenous variables of a system may become endogenous in an extended system In order to carry out the mental experiments of energy system control the schematization of what is not included in the system is an important complement to the model itself The main problem is that several exogenous variables such as the amount of ultimate fossil resources in place the availability of renewable resources the efficiency of a thermal cycle or the contribution of different GHG to radiative forcing exert high influence on the behaviour of the system but are not
176. faults for a CHP Process of petajoules and gigawatts and 31 536 respectively Units Process Activity Unite petajoules Process Capacity Units gigawatts PAC_CAPACT Value E 356 Change Units For details regarding default Units see section 4 3 Reviewing and editing default Units for each Database Component of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual e tis specified as a Process that has an Output based Activity with a single NRG input commodity GAS and with the two NRG output commodities ELC and HEAT designated as the PCG for the process and also with ENV commodity CO2 designated as an output To see this move to the I O Commodities tab Set Memberships Units Input Output Commodities i nput based Process Activity Qutput based Process Activity A Commu Description Type Commout Description Type PCG iGas sd Natural Gas NAG a ieee Carbon Dioxide h m gE Electricity D m Ei Low T emp Heat For this example of a Combined Heat amp Power Plant the output commodity HEAT happens to have Commodity Set Memberships of F Low Temperature Heat LTHEAT but it would also be fine for it to have Set Memberships of High Temperature Heat HTHEAT e Combined Heat amp Power Process EUNGACHPEXT has the following parameters associated with it LI e e e e l l boi e eee T oe ee E aon EUNGACHPEXT REG Electricity utility natural gas CHP extraction condensing SM HEATOILE REG Oil Boiler District He
177. ficiency including the possibility of fuel specific efficiencies is not so simple as the reader has probably already gathered from the preceding subsection 3 3 7 8 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 92 Above where we have used the phrase involved in the primary process transformation we are suggesting that emissions or other auxiliary commodity flows that are fixed in proportion to the activity of the process should not be part of the count of input and output commodities The diagram below reproduced here with the kind permission of Dr Uwe Remme provides a nice summary of how Standard Processes can be categorized not only into Simple Processes and Flexible Processes but further sub categorized according to whether the Process Activity is Output based or Input based and according to whether an Overall Efficiency or Fuel specific Efficiencies apply Process Case 2 Case 3 4 a 5 In subsections 3 3 7 10 to 3 3 7 14 below we examine a number of processes each of which provides a concrete example corresponding to one of the above sub categories with a particular focus on whether a true commodity group needs to be associated with the process and where possible with how ACT_EFF parameter instance s can be specified A reminder that each of these processes except the one in subsection 3 3 7 10 are contained in non BASE scenario TPROCESSES of demonstration data
178. formation Scenario Base TinyTIME Model Y Hame Desc GAs DEMO Natural as Set Memberships 2 Commodity COM Additional Characterization _ Demand for Energy Services DEM Annual Time Slice Level E Agricultural AGA Seasonal Time Slice Level E Commercial COML Weekly Time Slice Level ES Industrial IND DayNight Time Slice Level B Non Enengy ME E Other OTH Residential RES E Transportation TAM J Energy Carrier NAG int ah e Heat HTHEAT E Limited Renewable LIMRENE w E Low Temperature Heat LTHEAT E Nuclear NUCLR E Synthetic SYNTH B Unlimited Renewable FRERENEW Commodity Urita petajoules Change Units OK Cancel Click on the OK button and the Commodity Item NGAS will be created in Region DEMO and will become the current Item in the Commodity Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below 9 Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 22 Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling MBR File Edit wiew Run Tools Functions Help a F JAEJA E al Edit Data Regions Filter items All Scenarias All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter i f Sets f Hamed fran Commodities COM Sets Filter Hamed Filter ltem Managenent ea Commodity Sets ew Copy Delete Edit Select All ltems M
179. future developments and control policies This is reflected in the time horizon of In fact the time development of the system over the years can be viewed from two different perspectives similarly to fluid dynamics The point of view adopted here is Eulerian in the sense that the time development of the system as a whole is followed year after year An alternative approach is adopted by Life Cycle Analyses where the time development of each element of the system is followed along the years from cradle to grave ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A10 the analyses it spans from years short term to decades medium term to a century long term or more as it happens now in relation to climate change mitigation policies and impact analyses But understanding possible future developments implies studying past behaviour and reconstructing the present layout in an appropriate maximum level of detail Year by year data are required by the most detailed analyses such as for local energy environment planning and analyses often focused more on the operation of than the investments in the system However when the time horizon is far away in the future it is customary to follow the time development of the system by time periods of variable lengths yearly in the short term every five years in the medium and every twenty or more years in the long period More periods offer the possibility to evaluate the system and thus adjust
180. fying a Mining Extraction Process To specify a Mining Extraction Process in ANSWER TIMES it is recommended that you specify it as though it were a Trade Process See also section 3 3 8 that deals specifically with Trade Processes This means that you should proceed as follows e Use the Home Screen Region Management button to check whether or not External Region MINRNW External region for mining and renewables already exists and if it does not then create it Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 82 MS Region Management 2 Regions ea _GLUBAL Special region for data parameters with no AEG arg E IMPE F External regon for import export E MINA H External region for mining and renewables EJ REG Region 1 e Use the Commodity tab to check whether or not the Commodity being mined extracted already exists in External Region MINRNW as well as in the Internal Region s where this commodity is mined extracted and if it does not then create the Commodity in all regions where it does not exist e Use the TradeProcess tab to create the Mining Extraction Process as a Market Trade Process where the Market Region MINRNW exports the commodity being mined extracted to the Internal Region s where this commodity is mined extracted For an example of a Mining Extraction Process open the database Example4 with Processes mdb make the non BASE scenario TPROCESSES editable click on
181. ging the Run Name to REG UCRT2 checking the M Edt GAMS Control File checkbox clicking on the OK button of the Run Model form and replacing only LIMROW 0 by LIMROW 99 when editing REG UCRT2 GEN A useful answer to question b involves explaining how the GAMS Equation Listing in file REG UCRT2 LST differs from that in file REG UCRT LST and raises the question as to whether we are moving too far beyond the scope of what should be in a Getting Started Manual For the curious reader the essentials of the answer are provided at 4 below 4 After run REG UCRT2 has obtained an optimal solution and automatic import of results has occurred click on the View LST button below the Cases listview bottom LHS quadrant of Home Screen to bring up inside Wordpad the REG UCRT2 LST file created by the TIMES GAMS run e Use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of Equation Listing you should find this because of the LIMROW 99 setting in the GEN file Then use the Find facility to find EQE_UCRT REG UCRT Note that EQE is correct You should find the following equation for EQE_UCRT REG UCRT DEMO 1990 that has been reformatted over several lines below EQE_UCRT REG UCRT DEMO 1990 VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 SPD VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 SPN VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 SUD VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 SUN VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 FAD VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 FAN VAR_ACT DEMO 1990 1990 E01 WID
182. gy Statistics Manual issued by the statistical office of the International Energy Agency downloadable from http www iea org textbase nppdf free 2005 statistics manual pdf Only in industry might national energy balances split consumption by sub sector However it is necessary to be able to distinguish the nature of the demands for energy services for instance in the residential sector limiting the analysis of consumption to a single sector is not satisfactory because it does not distinguish between completely different services and end use devices such as those necessary for lighting or space heating or cooling The disaggregation is possible through the collection of additional data from other sources and their integration in the national energy balance Sometimes expert judgement assumptions are needed to disaggregate the fuel consumption down to sub sector and end use levels Consumption of final energy by end use has to match with the stock of devices their power and their duration of use If the stock is known in sufficient detail correlations and simple calibration procedure in spreadsheets allow quite robust split of all energy flows by end use sectors ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A18 Table 4 2 Global summary energy balance for 2002 IEA 2004 a Crude Oil Nat Elec 2002 in Mtoe Coal oil Prod Gas Nuc Hydro Bio Other TOTAL Indigenous Production 240 3647 2169 591 577 1118 68 10573
183. hange Units if necessary Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specity parameter data as appropriate ltem Information Scenario Base TinyTIMESModel E Hame Desc RHEAT DEMO Residential Heat Set Memberships Commodity COM Demand for Energy Services DEM B Agricultural AGR B Commercial COML Additional Characterization f Annual Time Slice Level Seasonal Time Slice Level Weekly Time Slice Level E Industrial IND Day Night Time Slice Level FL Non Energy HE E Other OTH wE Residential RES B Transportation TAN J Energy Carrier NAG Conservation CONSRY PS Electricity ELC B Fossil FOSSIL High Temperature Heat HTHEAT B Limited Renewable LIMRENEW B Low Temperature Heat LTHEAT B Nuclear NUCLA E Synthetic SYTH B Unlimited Renewable FRERENE Commodity Units petajoules f Change Units 5 Click on the OK button and the Commodity Item RHEAT will be created in Region DEMO and will become the current Item in the Commodity Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Tiny TIMESMode l ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit wiew Run Tools Functions Help a F JEJE E jalka Edit Data Regions Filter Items All Scenarios All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter l E Sets Nered fraus Commodities COM Sets Filter Hamed Filt
184. he average efficiency of existing fossil power plants According to the editor of this report this second method is more appropriate for economic evaluation it uses a concept similar to the marginal value and gives equal weight to each kWh whether produced by nuclear or renewables ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A3 measured at the crankshaft of an automobile engine or an industrial electric motor by the heat of a household radiator or an industrial boiler or by the luminosity of a light bulb In principle useful energy may be expressed in common energy units but in practice it is used in sector or application specific energy related units thermie lumen etc In conjunction with non energy end use devices useful energy provides energy services such as moving vehicles warm rooms process heat or light Energy services are expressed in specific units such as passengers or tons kilometre square meters of heated flats tons of cement and even value added or labour force in economic producing sectors Extraction Energy System Uranium Energy Sector Gas Well Coal Mine Oil Well Agrotoresty Treatment Mune E siy EE i Sunlight i sus Primary Natural Gas Coal Wi i Uranium Oil Biomass Sources Ind Gas Pipeline Ethanol Plant Conversion Power Plant Power Plant Refinery Transport Centralised Energy a Distribution Technologies Energy end use Devices Non Energy end
185. he source of that carrier is It is fair to say that most consumers are often unaware of the upstream activities of the energy system The energy system is service driven i e from the bottom up whereas energy flows are driven by resource availability and conversion processes from the top down Energy flows and driving forces interact intimately Therefore the energy sector cannot be analysed in isolation it is not sufficient to consider only how energy is supplied the analysis also must include how and for what purposes energy is used In 1990 385 EJ of primary energy produced 279 EJ of final energy delivered to consumers resulting in an estimated 112 EJ of useful energy after conversion in end use devices The delivery of 112 EJ of useful energy left 273 EJ of rejected energy Most rejected energy is released into the environment as low temperature heat with the exception of some losses and wastes such as the incomplete combustion of fuels 4 1 2 Engineering technology efficiency and system efficiency Energy is conserved in every conversion process or device It can neither be created nor destroyed but it can be converted from one form into another This is the first law of thermodynamics For example energy in the form of electricity entering an electric motor results in the desired output say kinetic energy of the rotating shaft to do work and losses in the form of heat as the undesired by product caused by electric resistance m
186. ices Mame Desc REG UCRT DEMO By Region User Constraint type UCCAT Set Memberships Sq User Defined Constraint LIC_N By Region Sum aver Periods Time Slices UCA C Rule based UCRULE ie Ey Region Period Sum over Time Slices UCRT fF By Region Period Time Slice UCATS A Dynamic by Region Sum over Time Slices UCASU B Dynamic by Region Time Slice UCASUS B Sum over Regions Periods Time Slices UC By Period Sum over Regions Time Slices UCT By Period Time Slice Sum over Regions UCTS B Dynamic Sum over Regions Time Slices UCSU B Dynamic by Time Slice Sum over Regions UCSUS E Simplified Dynamic Growth Decay UCATP A Market Share UCMHARKET Constraint Unita unit of user defined constraint Change Unita 5 Click on OK to exit the form The Data Screen now appears as follows Global Time Slice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter ltem Filter i Sets imeal User Defined Constraints UC_N sets Filter Named Filter aU nll E REG UCRT DEMO By Region User Constraint type UCAT 2e n Sets B RENEWELC DEMO Rule bazed constraint for renewable electricity n RENE WWELCZ DEMO Aiule based constraint for renewable electricity 2 ew Copy Delete Edit Select All Items ES E a Subset Parameters ec User Defined Constraint pe pes l pe a e e 7 pe JREGUCRT UC Pusht 2 0EMO__ REGUCRT ooo booo p
187. illumination comfortable indoor climate refrigerated storage transportation and consumer goods The purpose therefore of the energy system is the fulfilment of demand for energy services The architecture of an energy system can be represented by a sequential series of linked stages alternating commodities and processes connecting various energy conversion and transformation processes that ultimately result in the provision of goods and services see Figure 4 1 A number of examples are given for energy extraction treatment conversion distribution end use final energy and energy services in the energy system The technical means by which each stage is realized have evolved over time providing a mosaic of past evolution and future options Primary energy is the energy that is embodied in resources as they exist in nature the chemical energy embodied in fossil fuels coal oil and natural gas or biomass the potential energy of a water reservoir the electromagnetic energy of solar radiation and the energy released in nuclear reactions For the most part primary energy is not used directly but is first converted and transformed into electricity and fuels such as gasoline jet fuel heating oil or charcoal Primary energy is expressed in common units of PJ international standard or Tonnes oil equivalent frequently used Final energy is the energy transported and distributed to the point of final use Examples include gasoline at
188. imeSlice of SUD Summer Day 1 Move to the TimeSlice tab and click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New TimeSlice form The same caveats regarding the initial appearance of the form apply as previously E New TimeSlice in scenario BASE Ne Create New TimeSlice Enter Name Region and Description for the new TimeSlice Specify TimeSlice Level change Global TimeSlice Order if necessary and specify Parent TimeSlice Optionally enter Comment After clicking OK specify G_YRFR data valuefs NOTE Database has the Same TimeSlices in Every Region so TimeSlice Changes Apply in All Regions TimeSlice Information Scenario BASE TimeSliceCreation Name Region Description sup REG Summer Day Level Global Order Parent TimeSlice Level Global TimeSlice Order Time Slice ALL_TS Annual ANNUAL Seasonal SEASON E Weekly WEEKLY SSeS Summer Day Parent TimeSlice Since the database has no Weekly TimeSlices this Day Night TimeSlice should have a Seasonal TimeSlice as Parent TimeSlice FA Fall Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 72 2 Enter SUD and Summer Day in the Name and Description textboxes respectively and click on Day Night DAYNITE to select the DAYNITE TimeSlice Level The caption above the Parent TimeSlice combobox will advise that this Day Night TimeSlice must have a Seasonal TimeSlice as its Parent TimeSlice and the P
189. ing Group on Hedging The climate sensitivity is the temperature increase corresponding to a doubling of pre industrial CO2 concentration ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A33 C or 3 C or 5 C or 8 C according to the expert the most we know now is the probability of each value seeFigure 4 16 and that by 2050 the value of Cs will be known precisely The traditional way of exploring future possibilities would be to compile four separate scenarios each one with a different value of Cs In this way we obtain four different trajectories see Figure 4 17 and strategies But this approach leaves policy makers with the problem of deciding which the preferable strategy is in the short term In these situations policy makers have to act now and cannot wait until uncertainty is resolved before acting Cs 1 5 C o1 0 0657 0 25 Cs 3 0 C o1 0 0146 Cs 5 C o1 0 0103 Cs 8 C o1 0 0089 2000 2005 2015 2030 2050 2070 2090 Figure 4 16 The event tree of possible climate sensitivity values GHG emissions for A Tlimit 2100 1 8 C ATmax long term 2 7 C BC PF 1 5 C E PF 3 C amp PF 5 C PF 8 C 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20 70 2080 2090 Figure 4 17 Example of exploratory scenarios without a hedging strategy A beiter strategy is unique in the short term but acknowledges future uncertainties such a strategy is called a hedging
190. ing sections in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual e Section 14 7 TS ORD SEASON TS_ORD_WEEKLY TS_ORD_DAYNITE TID parameters to specify Global Ordering of TimeSlices at Each TimeSlice Level e Section 14 8 File menu functions for TimeSlices and in particular subsection 14 8 3 File Edit Global TimeSlice Order SET ALL_TS Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 74 3 3 5 Commodity Tab Commodities amp associated Data Parameters In subsection 2 3 5 Commodity Tab specify Commodities amp associated Data Parameters we detailed how to specify 3 Commodities NGAS Natural Gas ELC Electricity and RHEAT Residential Heat for the tiny TIMES model by clicking on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Commodity form Here we make some additional points about the operation of the Commodity Tab to specify Commodities and their associated Data Parameters 3 3 5 1 Different Commodity Types Sets In TIMES there are 5 main Commodity Types Sets namely DEM Demand for Energy Services NRG Energy Carrier ENV Environmental Indicator MAT Material and FIN Financial Indicator as can be seen in the LHS Set Memberships treeview of the New Commodity form MS New Commodity in scenario BASE Enter Hame and Description for the new Commodity Check the Region combobox setting Specity Set Memberships and change Units if necessary Optonally ent
191. invoke menu bar facility Run Edit GEN File Template and when the file Template GEN appears in Wordpad replace LIMROW 0 by LIMROW 99 then save this change and exit Wordpad 1 Click on the Run Model button and use the Run Model form in the standard way with Edit GAMS Control File no need to check the checkbox To revert to runs in which the GAMS LST file does not contain an Equation Listing again invoke Run Edit GEN File Template and replace LIMROW 99 by LIMROWS 0 and save this change Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 59 3 Using ANSWER TIMES to build more sophisticated TIMES models The overall purpose of this Section is to examine in some detail how to use ANSWER TIMES to build TIMES models that are far more sophisticated than the tiny TIMES model presented in Section 2 Thus the main components of a TIMES energy system model are examined in more detail along with how assorted ANSWER TIMES facilities are used to specify these components We begin the Section by providing an overview of the ANSWER TIMES demonstration databases that are used to provide concrete examples of various TIMES energy system components and also an overview of the different tyoes of ANSWER TIMES documentation that are available 3 1 Overview of ANSWER TIMES Demonstration Databases referred to in Section 3 The following ANSWER TIMES demonstration databases which are provided in folder C AnswerTIME
192. ion will be saved to the Database and will also be added to the Regions display of the Region Management form with G icon indicating that it is an External Region E Region Management Regions Mame Description Special region for data parameters with no REG arg Demo region Import E sport region Double clicking on icon toggles Internal to External External to Intermal Delete Edit Close 2 3 3 Global Tab specify Global Data Parameters There are a small number of Global Data Parameters that must be specified for every TIMES model These Global Data Parameters are e G_DYEAR Base year for discounting that is region independent e G_DRATE Discount rate for a currency that is region dependent and must be specified for each Internal Region For an External Region there is no need to specify the G_DRATE Parameter if this Parameter is specified for an External Region it will be ignored when generating the files for a TIMES GAMS run In ANSWER TIMES these Global Data Parameters may be conveniently specified on the Data Screen Global Tab 2 3 3 1 Move to Data Screen Global Tab to specify Parameters 1 On the Home Screen double click on the BASE Scenario icon in the Selected Scenarios display top RHS of Home Screen a pen icon ae will appear Click on the Edit Data button below the Selected Scenarios display 2 The Data Screen will appear in Edit Data mode with the Process Tab selecte
193. ions To Appear in GAMS DOZ DDS M69 DEMO Select 4 Deselect All This form displays all of the Internal Regions that are specified in the ANSWER TIMES database with those that are checked comprising the Internal Regions for the Run The default setting is that the Internal Regions for a Run comprise all Internal Regions so when the default setting prevails all checkboxes will be checked Where a model has two or more Internal Regions this form allows you to use the checkboxes to specify a subset of Internal Regions for which you wish to carry out a model run Files generated by an ANSWER TIMES initiated TIMES GAMS run This subsection details the files that are generated by an ANSWER TIMES initiated TIMES GAMS run along with the naming conventions that have been adopted These files include the files that are needed for subsequent use of VEDA BE for results analysis All files are generated in the GAMS Work folder default AnswerTIMESv6 Gams_WrkT The ANSWER TIMES Run Model facility creates the following files that are used as Input files for the TIMES GAMS run Input files to TIMES GAMS File Naming Conventions where For BASETINY run run lt region gt is Internal Region Name DEMO is Internal Region lt scenarioname gt is Scenario Name BASE is Scenario Name lt casename gt is Run Case Name BASETINY is Run Name CMD file that initiates GAMS run ANSRUN CMD ANSRUN CMD Master GAMS control file BASETINY GEN File defining
194. iour for long term developments Instead it is more important to consider the interdependencies between the large numbers of sub systems A planner cannot control too many details at the same time since he has only limited resources to collect the necessary data and to build and exercise a model aimed at helping him to understand the complex interdependencies Additionally there are restrictions on the ability of the tools to handle complexity and to process the data required You can access more information in the EMEP CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook European Environment agency http www eea europa eu ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual AQ for very large models in a reasonable time As a result operative planning is carried out on a sub system level with a limited time horizon and little consideration of comprehensive aspects Strategic planning on the other hand is done in a comprehensive analysis with a long time horizon and less detail on the sub system s level Despite the different characteristics and purposes of operative and strategic planning insights obtained from one of the model groups can be used to better describe the behaviour of the other model e g relationships obtained from the operative planning model can be included in a simplified and aggregated form in the strategic planning model Sub system and comprehensive analyses are distinguished by the extent of their system boundaries Sub
195. irector Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 30 Beaumont Crescent Queanbeyan NSW 2620 Australia Telephone Fax 61 2 6297 1405 Email noblesoft netspeed com au Web www noblesoft com au Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 3 Disclaimer This document is a Getting Started manual that introduces the main aspects of the ANSWER TIMES software for working with the IEA ETSAP TIMES energy system model Other and more comprehensive documentation of the ANSWER TIMES software is available and is listed in section 3 2 of this Getting Started manual Although every precaution has been taken in the preparation of all ANSWER TIMES documentation Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions In no event will Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd be liable for any incidental consequential exemplary special or punitive damages including without limiting the generality of the foregoing any resulting from loss of data profits use business or performance of the ANSWER TIMES software even if advised of the possibility of such damages Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd expressly does not warrant and disclaims any warranties express or implied to the effect that the functions contained in the ANSWER TIMES software will meet your requirements or that the operation of the software will be uninterrupted or error free Also you assume responsibility for the selection of the functions contained in th
196. ired targets taking into account possible developments of the non controllable exogenous variables and their uncertainties Analysts base their answers on mental experiments with the system actual experiments are not possible Since the system is complex and its future development depends on many variables the mental experiments are carried out through models 1 What TIMES proposes is the best outcome from a least cost perspective It is not infrequent that analyses and control strategies suggested by the analysts are rejected Often this is due to the difficulty of explaining in simple and logical terms the reasons behind the suggestions ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A27 System models range from non quantitative verbal descriptions to millions of equations complexly interrelated to be solved by powerful computers Furthermore it is advisable to use more than one model in order to analyse different issues of the same system and obtain the variety of results that are needed for the planning process Despite the complexity and ingenious relationships embedded in a model one should never forget that a model is always an abstract and often simplified description of the real world in most cases lagging in fully capturing all dimensions of the problem Instead of using informal mental models analysts rely on formal mathematical models because the policy makers request Quantitative answers Reliable and establi
197. ise all of the Results Time Periods in the ANSWER TIMES database Then ANSWER TIMES calculates the Beginning Year B and the Ending Year E for each Milestone Year by using a rule that is very commonly used B and E should be halfway between the Milestone Years The results of this calculation are displayed in the Beginning Year B and Ending Year EY rows of the spread The spread above shows that for the first Milestone Year 2005 the Beginning Year B is 2003 and the Ending Year E is 2007 for the second Milestone Year 2010 the Beginning Year B is 2008 and the Ending Year E is 2012 etc You can keep your life simple so far as Milestone Years Beginning Years and Ending Years are concerned by accepting the default settings But if you are curious as to how to use this form to specify as Milestone Years a subset of the Results Time Periods please read on To use this form to specify say 2005 2010 2020 as the Milestone Years proceed as follows e Uncheck the checkbox in the 2015 column of the spread CC p 7 Besinning Year B 2003 2008 Allowable Milestane years 005 un 2015 20 Ending ear E 2007 2012 e022 It is not acceptable to have E 2 Ending Year for the second Milestone Year 2012 and B 3 Beginning Year for the third Milestone Year 2018 TIMES rules in regard to B and E require that B 3 E 2 1 e Click on the Auto generate B and E button so that B and E are recalculated
198. issions While the RES is a graph of all relevant energy flows within the energy system an energy balance contains the values of all energy flows These flows can be included on a RES diagram or presented in separate tables The RES may contain more conversion levels like distribution end use technologies and useful energy demands which are normally not included in an energy balance The RES is preferably built up according to certain practical recommendations 1 Sources and primary energy supply the RES begins at the far left of the diagram with the input flows of energy e g oil natural gas coal petrol and imported electricity 2 Transformation processes follow next to modify the fuels forms e g oil refining and preparation of pellets from biomass In many cases it is more natural to describe e g refined oil or biomass pellets as the primary energy supply or available energy carriers since processing may have taken place outside of the studied geographic area and had no noticeable influence on its energy system 3 Electricity and heat plants next energy enters the large energy conversion technologies e g electricity production plants district heating plants and combined heat and power plants CHP to produce electricity and low temperature heat 4 Distribution systems for the large scale conversion plants follow for different energy forms e g electricity district heating and natural gas 5 End use technologies a
199. ith the Model Variant and Objective Function Specification form to specify a run of the TIMES Discrete Capacity Investment Model Variant Extension e Suppose for example that you have created a non BASE scenario DISCRETE INV containing Discrete Capacity Investment Data for example as in Example4 mdb but have not yet attempted a model run If you click on the Run Model button to initiate a model run then initially the Run Model form will appear as follows assuming Standard TIMES is the default model variant Run Model SNE Hodel Run Details Change Run Mame BURT aoe Description Discrete Capacity Investment Parameters for Process E 0 Comment iy Model Variant Specify Model Variant Standard TIMES Specity Milestone years Scenarios comprising this run ddd BASE exampled demonstration database 2013 09 14 18 36 ieli DISCRETE IN Discrete Capacity Investment Paramete 2010 07 14 15 56 Up e To specify that this run will invoke the Discrete Capacity Investment Model Variant Extension click on the e 2S IE WWetela E button to bring up the Model Variant and Objective Function Specification form shown on the following page and click the Discrete Capacity Investment checkbox when the form is first displayed the Discrete Capacity Investment checkbox will be unchecked Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 116 Model ariant and Objective F
200. l in the Name and Description textboxes In the Type of Trade frame accept the default setting of Market Trade but change the setting of the Market Region combobox to IMPEXP In the Commodity Type and Naming frame accept the default settings of NRG in the Type combobox DSL is an NRG Commodity and of checked for the Same Commodity Name in All Regions checkbox the Diesel being traded is named DSL in each of the IMPEXP DEMO and UTOPIA regions In the Set Memberships frame click on the Energy PRE leaf node of the LHS treeview This causes four TimeSlice radio buttons and three checkboxes to appear under Additional Characterization on the RHS o Accept Annual Time Slice Level as the selected radio button and accept the default setting of checked for the Import Export IRE checkbox Accept the default Process Activity Capacity Units of petajoules petajoules annum and the default PRC_CAPACT value of 1 The New Trade Process form will appear as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 102 MS New Trade Process in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Trade Process Specity Type of Trade and Commodity Type and Naming Specify Set Memberships and change w Units if necessary Use Traded Commodities andor Trade Matis tabs to specify Traded Commodities Item Information SCENANO BASE Base scenario for Demo and Utopia models Name Desc IMPD SLI Import
201. le to define a true commodity group that would be useful for quite a number of processes then it may be more desirable to use generic names that do not reference a particular process name To create true Commodity Group SREFOO5 O in region REG 1 Ensure that the editable scenario is the scenario in which Process SREFO05 in region REG is defined 2 Move to the CommGroup Tab and click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Commodity Group form and In the Item Information frame set Name Region and Description to SREFO05 O REG and True CG for SREF005 on the Output side respectively Accept the default setting of True Commodity Group under Set Memberships Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 79 E Sew Commodity Group in scenario TPROCESSES Enter Name and Description for the new Commodity Group Check the Region combobox setting Specify Set Memberships and change Units i i necessa Optionally enter Comment After clicking OK specify parameter data as appropriate ltem Information Scenario TpROCESSES sophisticated TIMES processes Name Desc SREFOO5 0 REG True CG for SREFOOS on the Output side Set Memberships Z Commodity Group COM_GRP B True Commodity Group ES Pre defined Commodity Group Commodity COM Demand for Energy Services DEM B Agricultural AGA B Commercial COML B Industrial IND B Non Energy
202. lected Item in the Commodity Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter terns Filter G Sets Named an Commodities COM SENGAS DEMO Natural Gas HGAS IMFPFEF Natural Gas Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 24 5 Item NGAS in Region DEMO has no associated TS or TID Data Parameter instances so Item NGAS in Region IMPEXP created by the Copy temis from Region to Regions facility likewise has no associated TS or TID Data Parameter instances 2 3 5 3 Specify Commodity ELC in Region DEMO 1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Commodity form 2 Enter ELC in the Name textbox accept the current setting of DEMO in the Region combobox and enter Electricity in the Description textbox 3 Specify the Set Memberships by clicking on the Electricity ELC leaf node in the tree view and accepting Annual Time Slice Level as the selected radio button under Additional Characterization 4 Accept the default Commodity Units of petajoules The New Commodity form appears as follows E Sew Commodity in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Commodity Check the Region combobox setting Specity Set Memberships and change Units if e necessary Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specily parameter data a appr
203. losophy of operation from the ANSWER TIMES software Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 1 3 Overview of the ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual This Getting Started Manual has been developed to introduce beginners to the fundamentals of both the TIMES model and the ANSWER TIMES software To obtain maximum benefit from this manual you should have the ANSWER TIMES software installed on your PC as part of this installation you will automatically obtain the ETSAP GAMS source code for the TIMES model and also have the GAMS modelling language software installed on your PC Section 2 uses a tiny TIMES model to introduce the basic ANSWER TIMES facilities which are needed to build any TIMES model Then it steps through the operation of the ANSWER TIMES Run Model facility to initiate a TIMES GAMS run and the Import of Results from such a run into ANSWER TIMES By the time you reach the end of Section 2 you will already have a useful appreciation of the nature of the TIMES model including fundamental concepts such as Time Periods Internal and External Regions TimeSlices Commodities Processes Trade Processes the most commonly occurring TIMES Data Parameters Milestone Years and be familiar with the mechanics of operation of basic ANSWER TIMES facilities such as New Database New Region for creation of Internal and External Regions Data Screen the Global TimeSlice Commodity Process a
204. low in the state it will be in after applying the 4 steps immediately below Use the Add button to specify the Excel Workbook s to be imported In the form below Excel Workbook base ex4 new x s in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Ans_WrkTI has been specified Optionally use the Regions button to specify a subset of Regions for which data in the Excel Workbook s is to be imported Select the Target Scenario for import In the form below the BASE scenario has been selected as the Target Scenario Accept the default Options for import as displayed in the form below Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 124 E Import Model Data from Excel Import Model Data from Excel allows Item TS and TID data in one or more Microsoft Excel Files to be Imported into an existing ANSWER database Excel Files to be Imported CVansiwerlIMESvoane Wik T base e4 new ls Remove Remove All Up Dr I Excel Files contain InterpolateExtrapolate Option Codes Column Target Scenario BASE Before Import Delete Online Results involving Target Scenario Options i Strang Checking of TS and TID Data Parameters Details Mernge Oyverynite information in the Target Scenario with that on Sheets being Imported Details Before Import Delete Parameter information inthe Target Scenario for tems on Wate Sheets Metals Before Import Delete All Information in the Target Scenario for Region s being Importe
205. ly to process E01 in region DEMO VAR_ACT DEMO E01 ts tp 2 timeslices ts that apply to process E21 in region DEMO VAR_ACT DEMO E21 ts tp lt RHS tp Note The indexes in the variables VAR_ACT that we have defined above are a simplified version of the indexes in the variables VAR_ACT that appear in the TIMES GAMS code We now detail how the ANSWER TIMES Constraint Tab can be used to specify User Constraint REG UCRT for region DEMO in non BASE scenario REG UCRT in database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb You might like to emulate the steps below by using Windows Explorer to make a copy of database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb then after opening the copy database and prior to step 1 below delete Case REG UCRT remembering the Case definition and delete non BASE scenario REG UCRT 1 Create new non BASE scenario REG UCRT as follows On the Home Screen click on the New button below the Scenarios listview to bring up the New Scenario form Enter REG UCRT and By Region User Defined Constraint sum over timeslices in the Name and Description textboxes E New Scenario Enter name description and optional comment tor the new scenario Name Description G EG UCRT E F egion User Defined Constraint sum ower timeslices Comment eS and then click on OK to exit the New Scenario form 2 Ensure that the new non BASE scenario REG UCRT is the editable scenario and that it is the only non BASE scenario so that the Selected
206. ment B BITRADE ELC Bescon o SU Trade in Electricity pa n Process Sets Import of Diesel IMPGAS1 Import of Natural Gas ew Copy Delete Edit IMPGSL1 Import of Gasoline IMPHCO1 Import of Hard Coal Selectalltems Move nes IMPOIL1 Import of Crude IMPURNI Import of Uranium Subset Parameters 0 Trade Process Specific ts TID data 2 Scenario Parameter Region Region2 Process Commodity item3 CommGroup Item5_ Item6 17E 1990 2000 2010 SS T A GC I GS o Paone N Reson _ Reporz iecex Commodity tend veu hens p voe fesse PRCACTUNT iE pEMO IMPDSLI e DSL pooo Pease PRC_ACTUNT 2 MPEXP IMPDSLI feo o Dsk hooo E E fesse pacactunT fe Topia iMPDSLI fe bse ooo Pesce PRe_capact pemo f Meos fe e kase ferc carar La Mee moso oo e e e E o E Pe pact __ UTOPIA IMPDSLY 0000 TOPIRE ff meee foen meos osc J TOPIRE a 2IMPEXP UTOPIA impost se pooo ST O SC Database C A4nswerTIMESv6 Answer_Databases Utopia_Demo_UC mdb Edit Scenario BASE Note that TID parameter instances PRC_ACTUNT PRC_CAPACT and TOP _IRE for the Trade Process are automatically generated with appropriate numeric values 5 To complete the specification of Trade Process IMPDSL1 use the AddRow facility in the TS spread to add two IRE_PRICE parameter instances to specify the price of importing DSL into each of the regions DEMO and UTOPIA so that the TS data spread appears as
207. merous barriers and inertias to be overcome such as social behaviour vintage structures financing of capital costs lack of information and know how and insufficient policy incentives The principal advantage of second law efficiency is that it relates actual efficiency to the theoretical ideal maximum Although this theoretical maximum can never be reached low efficiencies identify those areas with the largest potentials for efficiency improvement For fossil fuels this suggests the areas that also have the highest emission mitigation potentials 4 1 3 Economics the value of energy systems Since the industrial revolution took place economic development as a whole has been powered by energy without which the global 2005 GDP of about 55 TUS 2000 would not be possible However this economic development and the associated welfare for the people come at a cost that is The concept of second law efficiency opens the door to the use of the concept of exergy The figure is taken from the IEA Key Energy Statistics page 48 at purchase power parity ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A7 considerable directly and indirectly What part of the world economic resources are consumed in order to supply producers and consumers with the energy services they need The direct cost of providing primary fuels was of the order of 1 5 TUS globally in 2000 In the year 2000 with an average spot price of crude oil of 26 8
208. monstration database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb ccceeecee eee 98 3 3 8 2 Specification of Bilateral Trade Process BITRADE ELC cccccccccsseceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeas 99 3 3 8 3 Specification of Market Trade Process IMPDSL1 ccceeeeeeceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeneeeeeeeeneaes 101 3 3 8 4 Recommendations re Use of Market Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMEG 104 3 3 9 Constraint Tab User Constraints amp associated Data ParametersS ccceeeeesesseeeeeeeees 105 3 3 9 1 The 6 most common types of TIMES User Constraints c c ceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaes 105 3 3 9 2 Specification of User Constraint REG UCRT in non BASE scenario REG UCRT 106 3 3 9 3 Examining GAMS Equation Listing for Model Run with User Constraint REG UCRT 110 3 3 10 Parameter Tab the special role of the Parameter tab in ANSWER TIMES 00 113 3 3 10 1 Parameter Tab Subsetting Parameters when working with TIMES Extensions 113 3 4 Run Model facility additional IMtOrinmatl Oiizcccewstecedenetiecietaucerenccatentendice datas aiunces cen siuaateneiiadaaawniacs 115 3 4 1 Specify Model Variant button Model Variant and Objective Function Specification Form 115 3 4 2 R n Model GCneCkDOxeS eiece2 335s eee E ated era E deed 117 3 5 Examining Results for a TIMES GAMS run with ANSWER TIMES eee eccceeeceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaes 119 3 6 Examining Results from an ANS
209. ms on the Commodity tab etc and e the TS and TID data spreads in the bottom half of the screen display TS and TID data parameter instances occurring in the selected scenarios that are associated with the selected Item s in the listview in the top half of the screen by comparison on the Parameter tab e the listview in the top half of the screen displays all the data parameters listed in alphabetical order of name and e if just a single data parameter is selected in the listview in the top half of the screen then either the TS or the TID data spread in the bottom half of the screen will display all instances of the selected parameter occurring in the selected scenarios according to whether the selected parameter is a TS or a TID parameter or e if several data parameters are selected in the listview in the top half of the screen then the TS and or TID data spreads in the bottom half of the screen will display all instances of the selected parameters occurring in the selected scenarios The special role of the Parameter tab on the Data Screen is that it allows the user to cross sectionalize their data by Parameter There are various reasons that this can be advantageous including for example being able to cross compare the numeric values for say a particular process parameter such as NCAP_COST for different processes and perhaps thereby pick up inconsistencies in data specification 3 3 10 1 Parameter Tab Subsetting Parameters
210. n created without any Internal Regions and with only the ANNUAL TimeSlice Mew Database needs Region s may need additional TimeSlices This new TIMES Database has been created without any Internal Regions J You should use the Region Management button to create the Regionisi needed For your model Also the new Database contains only the ANNUAL TimeSlice so you may need to specify additional TimeSlices 2 3 2 Use Region Management facility to create Internal and External Regions For comprehensive details regarding the Region Management facility see section 2 5 Region Management of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual and in particular see subsection 2 5 2 Creating a new Region Here we detail what is required to create a new Internal Region DEMO and a new External Region IMPEXP for the tiny TIMES model 2 3 2 1 Invoke Region Management facility 1 Click on the Region Management button in the Tool Bar row on the Home Screen Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit Functions He View Run Tools Region Management Batch Management Data Management Se Scenarios gt _DELETED iteme deleted from 2012 05 25 16 48 2012 05 25 16 48 4 CE BASE Ting TIME SModel 2012 05 25 16 48 2012 05 29 10 33 r Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual The Region Management form will appear Because the new TIMES Database has been created without any I
211. n hydro although its electric output is nearly the same a The methodology of energy balances is well explained in chapter 7 of the Energy Statistics Manual issued by the statistical office of the International Energy Agency downloadable from http www iea org textbase nppdf free 2005 statistics_manual pdf 4 3 2 Energy technology and end use devices Machines and devices are the most visible and durable part of any energy system Thousands of them extract transport transform and distribute energy goods Million of devices satisfy the demand for energy services using energy goods For the analysis devices and processes similar by type or function are usually grouped in clusters These clusters are commonly described as energy technologies Describing an energy system with ten technologies is impossible one hundred technologies give a very rudimentary image of the system or a detailed image of a sub system a real system can be fairly well described with a number of technologies approaching one thousand or even more Each of these technologies is normally characterised in all aspects relevant for the analysis technical economic environmental See an example in Table 4 3 The technical parameters associated with technologies include efficiency availability factor s commodity consumption per unit of activity shares of fuels per unit activity technical life of the process and contribution to the peak equations The efficiency
212. n the Data Screen Constraint Tab In TIMES User Constraints most often involve TimeSlices and Processes but sometimes may involve Commodities You must specify the TimeSlices Processes and Commodities that are involved in a User Constraint before you can specify the User Constraint The TIMES modelling framework provides a very broad and powerful range of different types of User Constraints with many more types of User Constraints available than in the MARKAL modelling framework and ANSWER TIMES supports all of the different types of TIMES User Constraints The demonstration ANSWER TIMES database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb provides concrete examples of the 6 most common types of TIMES User Constraints via 6 separate non BASE scenarios as will be discussed in more detail below The 6 most common types of TIMES User Constraints can be split into two categories 3 types of by region User Constraints and 3 types of cross region User Constraints Below we detail use of ANSWER TIMES Constraint Tab to specify a by region User Constraint For details of how to specify a cross region User Constraint see section 11 2 How to specify a Cross Region User Defined Constraint of the ANSWERv6 TIMES user Manual 3 3 9 1 The 6 most common types of TIMES User Constraints The figure below Figure 5 6 taken from page 247 of the ETSAP document Documentation for the TIMES Model Part II which is downloadable from the ETSAP website as TIMESDoc Details pdf
213. n to the base year is not mandatory to understand the importance of uncontrollable variable or the effectiveness of control policies but it largely increase the credibility of models and analyses for non experts ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A28 Box MARKAL TIMES technical economic models of energy technology systems Using TIMES analysts represent their energy systems with 4E energy economic environment engineering technical economic equilibrium models According to the system and the target TIMES models build least cost or partial equilibrium or general equilibrium development paths with perfect foresight or myopic details are given in the first chapters of the Users guide downloadable from http www etsap org documentation asp The TIMES energy economy is made up of producers and consumers of commodities such as energy carriers materials energy services and emissions TIMES models like most equilibrium models assume competitive markets for all commodities The result is a supply demand equilibrium that maximizes the net total surplus i e the sum of producers and consumers surpluses TIMES may however depart from perfectly competitive market assumptions by the introduction of user defined explicit constraints such as limits to technological penetration constraints on emissions exogenous oil price etc Market imperfections can also be introduced in the form of taxes subsidies and hurdl
214. nally change the Internal External Region setting i E emo region A f intemal Region C External Region Cancel and then click on OK 5 The newly created DEMO Region will be saved to the Database and will also be added to the Regions display of the Region Management form with amp icon indicating that it is an Internal Region E Region Management Regions Hame Description ei _GLOUBAL Special region for data parameters with no REG arg I DEMO Demo region Double clicking on icon toggles Internal to External External to Intermal Delete Edit Close 2 3 2 3 Create new External Region IMPEXP iF Click on the New button of the Region Management form 2 The New Region form will appear 3 Enter IMPEXP and Import Export region respectively in the Name and Description textboxes see screen snapshot below The OK button will then become enabled 4 Change the default setting of the option buttons so that the Priemus option button is selected we want to create IMPEXP as an External Region so the New Region form appears as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 16 Mew Region Enter name description and optional comment for the new region and optionally change the Internal External Region setting ae ON mn IMPEXP oa I sport region Comment C Internal Region Cancel and then click on OK 5 The newly created IMPEXP Reg
215. nces PRC_ACTUNT PRC_CAPACT and TOP_IRE for the Trade Process are automatically generated with appropriate numeric values Under normal circumstances this completes the specification of Trade Process BITRADE ELC and there is no need to use the AddRow facility in the TS spread to associate any other parameter instances with this Trade Process In particular see the caution several pages earlier that IRE_PRICE parameter instances should not be associated with a Trade Process that is defined between two internal regions that is a Trade Process that involves endogenous trade links Further advice on this point kindly provided by Dr Antti Lehtila For endogenous trade links the general idea is that the prices are also endogenous the price is formed by the supply demand equilibrium of the traded commodity Normally there should thus be no need to specify a price for endogenous trade But if some add on cost or distribution cost is deemed useful necessary you can always use the ACT_COST FLO_COST and FLO_DELIV parameters to define variable distribution costs as well as NCAP_COST and NCAP_FOM parameters to define infrastructure costs for the trade link These add on costs would become additional costs on top of the endogenous price Specification of Market Trade Process IMPDSL1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Trade Process form and In the Item Information frame enter IMPDSL1 and Import of Diese
216. nd that sometimes it is useful efficient to be able to use ANSWER TIMES for your results analysis e Where all of your results analysis is going to be done with VEDA BE you should run with the Create Results For Import into ANSWER Checkbox unchecked With the unchecked setting the TIMES GAMS run will not generate the ANT results file that contains results in the format required by ANSWER TIMES and import of results into ANSWER TIMES will not be attempted For large models this may lead to useful savings in model run execution time and will eliminate the bloating in the size of your ANSWER database that is caused by the import of results Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 119 3 5 3 6 Examining Results for a TIMES GAMS run with ANSWER TIMES Subsection 2 4 5 Examining ANSWER TIMES Results for a TIMES GAMS run of this Getting Started manual provides useful advice on using ANSWER TIMES results facilities to examine the results from an ANSWER TIMES initiated TIMES GAMS run This advice should be read in conjunction with subsection 3 4 2 Run Model Checkboxes In subsequent versions of this Getting Started manual this section 3 5 will be expanded Examining Results from an ANSWER initiated TIMES GAMS run with VEDA BE ANSWER TIMES users who also have the VEDA BE results handling software installed on their PCs should note that the manual Using VEDA BE with ANSWER
217. nd TradeProcess tabs ltems listview the TS and TID data spreads for display of Data Parameters the AddRow for creation of new Data Parameters New Item for creating new Commodities Processes only simple TIMES processes are used Trade Processes Run Model for generating files and initiating a TIMES GAMS run Results facility for analyzing model run results Section 3 elaborates and expands on Section 2 in various ways by introducing the user to additional TIMES concepts and additional ANSWER TIMES facilities including the following specification of sub Annual TimeSlices additional information on different Commodity types and on the specification of Commodities that are Emissions use of the CommGroup Tab to create true Commodity Groups a deeper examination of the main categories of TIMES Processes and their specification including those that require an associated true Commodity Group specification of TIMES Trade Processes specification of TIMES User Constraints the special role of the Parameter tab in ANSWER TIMES additional information on use of the Run Model facility examining results from an ANSWEP initiated TIMES GAMS run with VEDA BE use of the Import Model Data from Excel facility to bulk load model data into an ANSWER TIMES database Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 2 2 1 Using ANSWER TIMES to build and run a tiny TIMES model
218. nd listbox in the Results Time Periods frame Note that in TIMES unlike MARKAL Data Time Periods and Results Time Periods can differ and it is common for both Data and Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 12 12 10 11 Results Time Periods to have unequal spacing This is why we have chosen to demonstrate the mechanics of specifying Data and Results Time Periods by leaving the f Unequal spacing option button selected even though it happens for our simple example that the Data and Results Time Periods are equally spaced The OK button will become enabled when a Description has been entered and Data Time Periods and Results Time Periods have been specified in both the Data and Results Periods in Database listboxes Uncheck the Create Initial Region checkbox terete rene so that the new database will be created without an initial region Jf Same TimeSlices in Every Region Accept the default setting of checked for the checkbox The New Database form now appears as follows New TIMES Database Template Version Version Bieta Gera Len ea aes TIMES v6 Max Item Length 24 Other Base Scenario Details Hane TEAS A Description TinyTIME SModel D Data Time Periods Results Time Periods f Unequal spacing Add Selected Periods to Data Click on OK and the New Database form will appear Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Get
219. ng Started Manual 94 3 3 7 11 Case 2 Process SREF004 output based 1 input 2 outputs one overall efficiency Consider process SREF004 which is an example of a process with a single input commodity crude oil OIL and two output commodities diesel and gasoline DSL and GSL and that we wish to treat as an output based process OIL Primary Commodity Group DSL GSL SREFOO4 G Refinery SREF004 and where the overall efficiency from input to output is 0 93 meaning that e 0 93 PJ of DSL can be produced by 1PJ of OIL and e 0 93 PJ of GSL can be produced by 1PJ of OIL with full flexibility on the output side regarding the mix of DSL and GSL For this flexible output based process 1 We need to create a true commodity group for the process namely its PCG SREF004 G comprising the two output commodities DSL and GSL The ANSWER TIMES New Process facility creates the PCG automatically as can be seen if we go to the CommGroup Tab p RL REG Residential Lighting ai m agree PCG for SREFOO4 Qutput based _Selectaiitems_ acacia JEL subset Parameters 9 Commodity Group T TID data Scenario Parameter Region _ Commodity CommGroup TimeStic Value M TPROCESSES COM GMAP REG DSL SREFO04G 1 PM _ TPROCESSES COM GMAP 7 PREG GSL SREFOO4G j 1 TA A AA E 2 We define a single ACT_EFF parameter instance with input commodity OIL in the CommGroup position and with numeric v
220. nits tab specify the Set Memberships and Units iv Move to the Traded Commodities tab and specify the Commodity Commodities that is are to be traded v Move to the Trade Matrix tab and specify the Trade Matrix e Exit the New Trade Process form e The new Trade Process will be added to the Process Items display with some TID data parameters automatically generated e Tocomplete the specification of the Trade Process you need to specify additional TIMES TS and TID data parameters e g related to costs For comprehensive details regarding the creation of Trade Processes see Section 16 Handling of Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual Also see Handling of Trade Processes in ANSWER TIMES Additional Information doc in the C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc subfolder Here we detail what is required to create Trade Process IMPNGAS for the tiny TIMES model First click on the TradeProcess Tab Initially the Trade Process Items display is empty Global Time5lice Commodity CommGroup Procesa Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter f Sets Named All Trade Processes ka Sets Filter Hamed Filter Description ltem Management Delete mA Move RES 2 3 7 2 Specify Trade Process IMPNGAS 1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Trade Process form which has some similarities to the New Process
221. nstrates the use of the Run Model facility for the tiny TIMES model we are going to accept virtually all of the default settings on the Run Model form and not explain what any of these settings mean nor explain the functioning of some of the buttons on the Run Model form An explanation of the most important features of the Run Model form will be provided in the following subsection 2 4 3 To use the Run Model facility for the tiny TIMES model 1 On the Home Screen click on the Run Model button to bring up the Run Model form The first time that you do this the Run Model form will appear as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 44 Run Model Hodel Run Details BIBASE Change Aun Description TinyTIMESModel Comment iy a Model Variant Specify Model Varnant Standard TIMES Specity Milestone Years z T cenarios comprising this un _ 3 Modified Aad Tine TIME SModel 2012 05 30 23 44 Remove dd Up On Regions GAMS Basis Restart File f Solve fromscratch Solve from default Basis Restart File Solve from user specified Basis Restart File GAMS Basis Restart File Modify GAMS Basis Save File f No Basis Save File Default Basis Save File Userspecitied Basis Save File GAMS Basis Save File Migdityy OOo Edit GAMS Control File Generate Files Do Not Run MW Create Results For Import into ANSWER IW Regenerate Base DD
222. nsult the ANSWERv6 TIMES Smart Excel Workbook Manual Excel 2007 and higher pdf or if using Excel 2003 consult the ANSWERv6 TIMES Smart Excel Workbook Manual see subsection 3 2 1 above Note that section 2 10 Importing Model Data from Excel in ANSWER TIMES in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual contains a detailed description of the Import Model Data from Excel facility Below we provide some examples of Standard ANSWER TIMES Excel Workbooks and summarize the operation of the facility 3 7 1 Different Types of Worksheets in an ANSWER TIMES Standard Excel Workbook There are 8 different types of Worksheets in an ANSWER TIMES Standard Excel Workbook that are recognized by ANSWER via a special indicator in cell A1 as shown in the following table Type of ANSWER ANSWER Cell Description of Worksheet Information or Data Excel Worksheet A1 Indicator Region Information REGIONS Internal and External Regions are named and described and their Set Memberships specified Item Information ITEMS ltems whose specification is under user control are named and described and their Units and Set Memberships specified Time Series Data TS DATA Time Series Data Parameters with a single region index are specified TID Data TID DATA TID Data Parameters with a single region index are specified Time Series amp TID TS amp TID DATA Time Series amp TID Data Parameters with a single region Data index are specified Time Series Trade TS TRADE Tim
223. nterface to enter all model data A large TIMES model is most easily built by bulk loading most of the model data from Excel spreadsheets into the ANSWER TIMES database see section 3 7 Bulk Loading Model Data into ANSWER TIMES via Import Model Data from Excel facility Every aspect of model definition may be changed as necessary as the model is developed and refined over time e New Data Time Periods and Results Time Periods may be added e New model Regions may be added existing Regions deleted renamea e New TimeSlice Commodity Process Trade Process and User Constraint Items may be added existing Items deleted renamed and associated Parameter instances may be added deleted or numeric values edited Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 10 2 2 Scope of the tiny TIMES model The RES diagram for the tiny TIMES model is as follows RHEAT O Lu ECCNGAS RELCHPUMP Import Natural Gas Combined cycle Gas Power Plant Residential Heat Pump Additional information for the tiny TIMES model e Data Time Periods 2005 2010 2015 2020 e Results Time Periods 2005 2010 2015 2020 e Regions single External Region IMPEXP that is the source of NGAS single Internal Region DEMO e Sub Annual TimeSlices none just ANNUAL TimeSlice Global Parameter Data e Discount rate 5 0 05 base year for discounting 2003 Commodity Data Residential Heat e Demand in 20
224. nternal Regions initially the only region that is displayed is the special _GLOBAL region with ris icon that ANSWER TIMES uses to represent TIMES parameters that do not have a region index e g the G_DYEAR Base year for discounting parameter Efe cx MS Region Management Regions Hame Description Special region for data parameters with no REG arg Double clicking on icon toggles Internal to External External to Intermal 2 The New button allows the user to create new Regions The Delete and Edit buttons disabled for GLOBAL Region allow the user to delete and edit existing Regions 2 3 2 2 Create new Internal Region DEMO 1 Click on the New button of the Region Management form 2 The New Region form will appear Mew Region Enter name description and optional comment for the new region and optionally change the Internal External Region setting Description f Internal Region C Extemal Region 3 Enter DEMO and Demo region respectively in the Name and Description textboxes see screen snapshot below The OK button will then become enabled Accept the default setting of the f Internal Region option button being selected we want to create DEMO as an Internal Region so the New Region form appears as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 15 Mew Region Enter name description and optional comment tor the new region and optio
225. ntial Space Heating PJ COM DEM DAYNITE RES E RL Residential Lighting PJ COM DEM DAYNITE RES E TX Automobile Transportation PJ COM DEM ANNUAL TRN E URN Natural Uranium PJ COM NRG ANNUAL NUCLR Commodity Group Items for REG1 REG2 REG3 regions D E41 G PCG for E41 Natural gas combined cycle planPJ COM_GRP COM_GRPTRU D RHG_IN RHG_IN COM_GRP COM_GRPTRU D SRE G PCG for SRE Oil Refinery PJ COM_GRP COM_GRPTRU Process Items for REG1 REG2 REG3 regions T E01 Coal Steam Electric PJ GW PRC ELE DAYNITE T E21 LWR Nuclear Plant PJ GW PRC ELE SEASON T E31 Hydro electric Plant PJ GW PRC ELE DAYNITE T E41 Natural gas combined cycle plant PJ GW PRC CHP DAYNITE T E51 Pumped Storage Power Plant PJ GW PRC ELE STGTSS DAYNITE T E0 Qil Plant PJ GW PRC ELE DAYNITE T IMPDSL1 Import of Diesel PJ PJa PRC PRE ANNUAL IRE T IMPGAS1 Import of Uranium PJ PJa PRC PRE ANNUAL IRE T IMPGSL1 Import of Gasoline PJ PJa PRC PRE ANNUAL IRE T IMPHCO1 Import of Hard Coal PJ PJa PRC PRE ANNUAL IRE T IMPOIL1 Import of Crude PJ PJa PRC PRE ANNUAL IRE T IMPURN1 Import of Uranium PJ PJa PRC PRE ANNUAL IRE T RHE Electric Boiler PJ PJa PRC DMD DAYNITE T RHG Gas oil Boiler PJ PJa PRC DMD ANNUAL T RHH District Heat Exchanger PJ PJa PRC DMD ANNUAL T RHO Diesel Boiler PJ PJa PRC DMD DAYNITE T RL1 Standard Incandescent Lighting PJ PJa PRC DMD ANNUAL T SRE Oil Refinery PJ PJa PRC PRE ANNUAL T TXD Diesel Car PJ PJa PRC DMD ANNUAL T TXE Electric Car PJ PJa PRC DMD ANNUAL T TXG Gasoline Car PJ
226. ntrol models energy systems development models cannot be validated by means of experiments The validation of the model in the base year for which statistical values are available ensures continuity between past events and future assumptions but cannot ensure that the model represents correctly the system twenty or fifty years ahead The model has to represent the system according to the laws that govern it The state or decision variables have to encompass all the elements identified and quantified in the previous steps The attached box illustrates how MARKAL TIMES models help achieving these objectives Furthermore in the model the system must take different development paths and react to possible different developments of the exogenous variables 18 Describing the underlying energy system by necessity starts with the calibration procedure It requires tuning and fine tuning all exogenous variables in the base year till all state variables of the model quantity and prices match the statistical data The calibration is somewhat analogous to the econometric estimate on available time series of the parameter of traditional economic models it embodies in the technical economic model the information about the past in the much more robust form of stock of technologies It has to be repeated whenever new energy balances and other important statistical data are made available or when moving the base 1st year of the model A precise calibratio
227. number of regions and for a number of periods and that involves summing over timeslices This is the second type of User Constraint in the above table EQI_UCRT for which non BASE scenario REG UCRT provides the concrete example REG UCRT The REG UCRT User Constraint in database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb is specified for each of the regions DEMO and UTOPIA Below we describe for region DEMO only what the purpose of this User Constraint is and detail how to specify it on the Constraint Tab For region UTOPIA the purpose of this User Constraint and the way in which it is specified are exactly similar Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 107 For region DEMO the purpose of the REG UCRT User Constraint is to specify that in each of the Periods tp 1990 2000 2010 the sum over Timeslices of the activity variables associated with the Processes E01 and E21 in region DEMO is lt RHS tp where RHS tp are numeric values that we take to be 2 5 3 0 3 5 in Periods tp 1990 2000 2010 respectively Expressing this mathematically Suppose that VAR_ACT DEMO E01 ts tp is the activity variable for Process E01 in region DEMO for Timeslice ts in Period tp and that VAR_ACT DEMO E21 ts tp is the activity variable for Process E21 in region DEMO for Timeslice ts in Period tp Then the User Constraint that we wish to specify in each of the Periods tp 1990 2000 2010 is as follows 2 timeslices ts that app
228. o Renn SAAN 2 0000 L a GE ete onan Scenario Parameter _ Region Constant Side tem3_ Itemd tem Year Vale PM OJREG UCRT DC A EACH a Demo REGUCRT b o bo o o o o bo o bo b y y l E ee ee eee ee eee Constraint REG UCRT in region DEMO has been added to the Constraint Items listview and is the selected Item Parameter instance UC__RHSRT has been automatically generated in the TS spread Note that user intervention is required to change the placeholder none in the Item6 column and is also required to change the zeroes in columns 1990 2000 2010 Parameter instance UC_R_EACH has been automatically generated in the TID spread Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 110 6 In general for parameter instance UC__ RHSRT in the TS spread use direct cell edit of the ltem6 cell to change the placeholder none to whichever of FX or LO or UP is appropriate according to the sense of the User Defined Constraint FX or LO or UP for or gt or lt respectively and replace the zero numeric values by appropriate numeric values For our example we know that a lt constraint is required with numeric values of 2 5 3 0 3 5 in 1990 2000 2010 respectively So we change the placeholder none to UP and change the zeroes in columns 1990 2000 2010 to 2 5 3 0 3 5 respectively so that the TS spread appears as follows Scenario Parameter Region Constraint Side Pr
229. ocess Item4 Item5 tem fi 1990 2000 2010 PM OJREG UCRT UC_RHSAT DEMO REG UCRT b o bo o bo P 25000 30000 3 5000 Pade PREG UC RT i 7 To complete the specification of the User Constraint use the AddRow in the TS spread to specify UC_ACT parameter instances involving Processes E01 and E21 so that the TS spread appears as follows Scenario Parameter Region Constraint Side Process tem item5 Items ie 1990 2000 2010 EDI PM OJREG UCRTQUC ACT DEMO REG UCRT Eat ANNUAL y o 1 0000 1 0000 1 0000 T 7 d ae d We specify UC_ACT parameter instances because these are appropriate for a User Constraint involving VAR_ACT variables If instead we wished to specify a User Constraint involving say VAR_NCAP variables we would have specified UC_NCAP parameter instances We specify ANNUAL in the Item5 column as an indicator to TIMES that the User Constraint involves a sum over Timeslices eo PM REGUCAT uc act DEMO REG UCRT LHS EO ANNUAL jo 10000 1 0000 1 0000 EE 3 3 9 3 Examining GAMS Equation Listing for Model Run with User Constraint REG UCRT To achieve an improved understanding of the nature of the User Constraint REG UCRT it is instructive to carry out a model run of the BASE scenario as modified by non BASE scenario REG UCRT but where we modify some of the model run defaults so that the GAMS LST file for the model run contains an Equation Listing 1 To carry out a run of the
230. odities of same Type that comprise the PCG OF Cancel TW E TTT m w E E a E m m m E E e The I O Commodities section of the form allows you to specify e Whether the Process is Output based the default or Input based and e The Input and Output Commodities for the Process along with the associated PCG Primary Commodity Group Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 30 6 For Electric Generation Process ECCNGAS accept the default of Output based 7 To specify that NGAS is an Input Commodity click on the Add Comm button below the CommiIN spread to bring up the Input Commodity Selection form select NGAS from Commodities in region DEMO E Input Commodity Selection for region DEMO multi select allowed E 5 X E Electricity Natural Gas Residential Heat and then click on OK 8 Similarly to specify that ELC is an Output Commodity click on the Add Comm button below the CommOuUT spread to bring up the Output Commodity Selection form select ELC from Commodities in region DEMO E Output Commodity Selection for region DEMO multi select allowed TBS i Electricity NAG Natural Gas Residential Heat and then click on OK The top of the CommIN and CommOUT spreads now appear as follows Input Output Commodities nput based Process Activity f Qutput based Process Activity Commin Description Type ComouT D
231. of capacity installed and are paid in each year for all the technical life of the technology For example for a thermal power plant the fixed O amp M should be MEuro MW year The variable operating amp maintenance O amp M costs are related to the unit of produced activity in each year For example for a thermal power plant the fixed O amp M should be MEuro GWh produced or MEuro PJ produced The fuel costs in yellow are related to the unit of consumed fuel in each year For example for a thermal power plant the fixed O amp M should be MEuro PJ consumed The waste costs are related to the dismantling of the produced wastes from both the construction and working phases A similar approach is followed to build the inverse demand curve Only the demand curves for energy services approximate analytical curves and express the preferences of energy consumers In a perfect economic equilibrium market the price of each commodity as reported above in Figure 4 12 and Figure 4 13 should be equal to the marginal value Duality theory does not necessarily indicate that the marginal value of a commodity is equal to the marginal cost of producing that commodity For instance the equilibrium point shown in Figure 4 14 does not correspond to the cost of any marginal supply technology since it is situated at a discontinuity of the inverse supply curve In this case the price is precisely determined by demand rather than by supply and the term marginal co
232. onomic and environment On the contrary ETSAP tools and in general analyses of energy system offer little help to understand demographic dynamics economic development and GDP growth unless TIMES MACRO is employed how many degrees will temperature increase due to climate change the demand for energy services unless TIMES ED or MACRO are employed the mining cost in 30 years emissions technology factors or engineering technology data The literature on energy scenarios is very ample Some base elements on scenarios the related bibliography and the description of some relevant long term global scenarios are reported by G C Tosato Global long term energy scenarios lessons learnt IPP Report No 16 13 March 2007 The report is downloadable from www ipp mpg de ippcms de kontakt bibliothek ipp _reports IPP 16 13 pdf This scenario normally shows quantities and prices in the base year different from the statistical values The distance of the actual system from the economic equilibrium indicates the weight of non technical economic laws and factors in the system Part of the gap can also be viewed as the effect of different market failures and sometimes suggests where distortion can be removed 27 In fact even for presently commercially available technologies it is difficult to reduce what social scientist call technology controversies ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A32 In general to hedge agains
233. onstraint The tiny TIMES model does not contain any User Constraints If you wanted to add a User Constraint you would click on the Constraint Tab and initially find the Constraint Items display is empty Stabe TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Sets Filter Hamed Filter ltem Management Cren ie Delete ited elect All Items Ae ea Fe a Then you would click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New User Defined Constraint form and begin the process of defining a User Constraint Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 43 2 4 Using Run Model facility to initiate a TIMES GAMS run Import Results Once you have specified the TIMES model data you are ready to invoke the Run Model facility which will generate the files that are needed for the TIMES GAMS run initiate the run and then automatically import run Results into your ANSWER TIMES database To invoke the Run Model facility you must be on the Home Screen If you are on the Data Screen return to the Home Screen by clicking on the F button in the Tool Bar row Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help Then click on the Run Model button at the bottom of the Selected Scenarios display Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Bun Tools Functions H
234. opriate Item Information Scenari p ASE TinyTIMESModel Set Memberships and Units Set Memberships 9 Commodity COM s E Demand for Energy Services DEM B Agricultural AGA B Commercial COML Additional Characterization f Annual Time Slice Level f Seasonal Time Slice Level Weekly Time Slice Level ES Industrial IND Dap Night Time Slice Level B Non Energy NE E Other OTH B Residential RES B Transportation TAH LJ Energy Carrier NRG Fy Conservation CONSAY ime Electricity ELC E Fossil FOSSIL bee ESL High Temperature Heat HTHEAT FL Limited Renewable LIMRENEW B Low Temperature Heat LTHEAT B Nuclear NUCLR B Synthetic SYNTH B Unlimited Renewable FRAERENE w Commodity Units petajoules Change Units si Click on the OK button and the Commodity Item ELC will be created in Region DEMO and will become the current Item in the Commodity Items display as shown in the screen snapshot below Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit wiew Bun Tools Functions Help Fl JRE E Al Y JEdit Data Regions Filter items All 5cenarios All gt Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Item Filter G Ses C iene fean Commodities COM sets Filter Hamed Filter pen laria lle ELC DEMO
235. ost components investment annuities fuel and waste disposal costs other operating and maintenance costs dismantling Quantities are given by the existing stock of plants processes ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A25 Power plants RoR run of the river HB hydro basin PC pulverized coal CC combined cycle LWR existing nuclear GT gas turbine SF steam fossil others existing IGCC int coal GCC EPR new nuclear FC fuel cells Wof wind offshore BIO biomass steam a GEO geo hot dry 10 15 20 PV photovoltaic Production cost c kWh F 3 x is i AA o es a i iY Global electricity 000 TWh year 2000 Investment Samm sania Waste mma Fuel TT Typical representation of an energy commodity in MARKAL TIMES The algorithm maximises the global surplus over thousands such markets Figure 4 14 Example of step wise inverse supply demand curves for electricity Figure 4 14 shows the costs the fixed and variable operating amp maintenance costs the waste costs and the fuel costs associated with a suite of competing technologies looking to provide the requested demand The investment costs in green are related to the unit of capacity newly installed by the model For instance for a thermal power plant the investment cost should be MEuro MW installed The fixed operating amp maintenance O amp M costs are related to the unit
236. ove RE s Subset Parameters 0 Commodity Specific frs TID data jise a a ee frene lie f 20m f emo f ams Y emo a a a E DEMO Hatural Gas jee peaa CS fve hors phere f vae es a 6 For this Commodity no TS or TID Data Parameter instances are automatically generated 7 For the tiny TIMES model no additional TS or TID Data Parameters are required to complete the specification of NGAS in Region DEMO 2 3 5 2 Specify Commodity NGAS in Region IMPEXP Since Commodity NGAS in Region IMPEXP should have the same Description Set Memberships and Units as Commodity NGAS in Region DEMO a simpler approach is available to creating it than using the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Commodity form This simpler approach involves using the MiimibemsiManiiMllSStMMRSIUR eis SAE facility 1 With NGAS in Region DEMO as the selected Commodity Item right mouse click and select the Copy Themis from Region to Regionis nenien ltem Filter gt Sets ie Commodities COM DEMO HM atural Gas Toggle Size Select All Copy Tkents across Scenarios Subset Parameters 0 Commodity Specific Copy bemfis From Region to Regionts Refresh Scenario Farameter Region Commo Co 2 The Copy Item s from Region to Region s form will appear by default displaying all Internal and External Regions in the Select Destination Regions for Copy frame Since the Origin Scenario and
237. ow it is possible to control it The most important elements to be identified when an energy system is approached for analysis are e Scope of the analysis Boundaries Time frames Components Elements Parts and Connections interdependencies and chains A short illustration of each element follows 4 2 1 Scope of the analysis Before starting the analysis of an energy system the following general elements have to be identified e Who is the client What is the aim what are the specific objectives Who will conduct the analysis Are the necessary skills available What budget has been allocated for the study Establishing these elements can guide one through conflicting requirements of the analysis for instance between strategic and operative planning among different level of comprehensiveness and detail Operative and strategic planning is distinguished by the time span considered and by other factors related to the energy technological and socio economic framework Operative planning looks at short term optimisation from minutes to days and an otherwise fixed technical energy system and socio economic framework Strategic planning tries to include long term technological and socio economic developments Operative planning requires a large amount of detail within the sub systems because high accuracy is required In strategic planning too much detail in the sub systems can often obstruct the view of the total system behav
238. owing subsection 3 3 7 we will see examples of Processes where there is a need for the user to go to the CommGroup Tab in order to manually create a true commodity group including explicitly specifying the associated COM_GMAP parameter instances that define this true commodity group An example of how to do this is detailed in the following subsection 3 3 6 1 3 3 6 1 Using the CommGroup Tab to manually create a True Commodity Group In the following subsection 3 3 7 we will present an example of a Process SREFO05 in region REG that has a single input commodity OIL and two output commodities DSL and GSL that we wish to treat as an input based process and where we wish to use ACT_EFF to specify the overall efficiency of the process In order to do this we need to explicitly create a true Commodity Group SREFOO5 O in the same region REG as the Process that comprises the two output commodities DSL and GSL that are associated with the Process SREFOO5 e In ANSWER TIMES we suggest that the naming convention for a true commodity group comprising output commodities but which is not the PCG should be that the Name is lt processname gt O O for output e Likewise we suggest that the naming convention for a true commodity group comprising input commodities but which is not the PCG should be that the Name is lt processname gt I for input e Each of the suggested naming conventions above is subject to the caveat that if it is possib
239. ox accept the current setting of DEMO in the Region combobox and enter Residential Heat Pump in the Description textbox 3 Specify the Set Memberships by clicking on the Demand Device DMD leaf node leaf nodes have icon EA in the tree view and accepting Annual Time Slice Level as the selected radio button under Additional Characterization 4 Accept the default Process Activity Capacity Units of petajoules petajoules annum and the default PRC_CAPACT value of 1 The New Process form appears as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 35 Mew Process in scenario BASE Enter Name and Description for the new Process Check the Region combobox setting Specity Set Memberships and change Units if necesan Specify LO Commodities and PCG Optionally enter Comment After clicking OF specity parameter data as appropriate ltem Information Scenario EASE TinyTIME SModel Name Desc RELCHPUMP DEMO Residential Electric Heat Pump A O Set Memberships Units 170 Commodities S Set Memberships G Process PRC cow E Combined Heat amp Power CHF Annual Time Slice Level B Demand Device DMD O Seasonal Time Slice Level Electric Generation ELE Weekly Time Slice Level Energy FRE O Day Night Time Slice Level F Heat Generation HFL C Night Storage NST E Material by weight PRY z Stockpiling STK E Material by volume PRY D Stockpiling STK B Misc
240. pecified for backpressure point costs must be specified based on total electricity and heat output at backpressure point e g investment costs jii MCAF_CHPRir t pred Ratio of heat to power at backpressure point at least a maximum value is required but in addition also a minimum value may be specified For an example of a Combined Heat amp Power Plant open the database Example4 with Processes mdb make the non BASE scenario TPROCESSES editable click on the Edit Data button move to the Process tab and select EUNGACHPEXT If you click on the Edit button in the Item Management frame to bring up the Edit Process form then you will see the following key features of Process EUNGACHPEXT which is a Combined Heat amp Power Plant Its Set Memberships are E Combined Heat amp Power CHF with Day Night Time Slice Level Set Memberships Units 1 0 Commodities Set Memberships Ez Process PRC Additional Characterization Combined Heat amp Power CHF Annual Time Slice Level p 5 Demand Device DMD Seasonal Time Slice Level l s E Electric Generation ELE 7 Weekly Time Slice Level EY Energy PRE Day Night Time Slice Level E Heat Generation HPL ER Material by weight PRW EL Material by volume PRW E Miscellaneous MISC Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 87 e ts Process Activity and Process Capacity Units and its PRC_CAPACT value are the de
241. pecify Primary Commodity Group If the PCG comprises 2 or more commodities create PCG true commodity group comprising these commodities Recommended PCG name in ANSWER TIMES is lt process name gt G ANSWER TIMES New Process facility auto generates PCG Else PCG is just a single commodity Specify PRC_ACTUNT with PCG as argument and hence specify whether process is output or input based ANSWER TIMES New Process facility auto generates PRC_ACTUNT Specify capacity to activity Specify PRC_CAPACT parameter conversion factor and often specify ANSWER TIMES New Process facility auto generates an availability factor PRC_CAPACT Specify availability factor parameter such as NCAP_AF or NCAP_AFA or NCAP_AFS Specify relationship s that indicate Where necessary create true commodity groups how output commodity flows are needed for the relationship s related to input commodity flows Recommended CG name in ANSWER TIMES is lt process Or alternatively that indicate how name gt l for CG on Input side and lt process name gt O for CG input commodity flows are related to on Output side But there is a Caveat output commodity flows If it is possible to define a true commodity group that would be useful for quite a number of processes then it may be desirable to use a generic name for the CG that does not reference a particular process name Either specify appropriate ACT_EFF parameter instance s Or
242. places endeavours to provide a self contained guide to the most important features of the ANSWER TIMES software there may be places where the reader will need to refer to the more detailed ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual and or to other associated ANSWER TIMES documentation Acknowledgements The assistance provided by Dr Uwe Remme of the International Energy Agency Paris who has been generous in making available for incorporation within this manual assorted TIMES training material that he has developed and in closely reviewing section 3 7 on Processes is gratefully acknowledged The assistance provided by Dr Antti Lehtila of VTT Finland who over the past half dozen years has generously shared his TIMES expertise by answering numerous TIMES queries and who closely reviewed section 3 7 on Processes is also gratefully acknowledged Appendix A of this manual Getting Started with the Problem Defining and Describing the Area of Study was generously made available by Dr GianCarlo Tosato of ASATREM Italy The development of this ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual was substantially funded by ETSAP thanks to ETSAP for providing this funding support Finally Noble Soft Systems wishes to acknowledge the efforts of the team of ETSAP experts whose cooperative efforts led to the development of the TIMES energy system model For further information on ANSWER TIMES For further information on ANSWER TIMES please contact Dr Ken Noble D
243. quilibrium point between the level of damage supplied by the system and accepted by the consumers In some cases it is more useful to revert the sign of the negative commodities and model the service of reducing noxious emissions or wastes ETSAP 2013 A14 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual f f f Sao ides AB IBY Ag pea PT uaa a ORLA 11 pam du 1B 131 FRIES LOWE sty uping 1 alag Bi 31107 127 J051 u mes E EN AB IBU jedi Il ga Je TTE nE fi WO g HAd IQA a or LOVE sua 3H PHE pAg amg WEAH JIS aay IEJSIH pad amg Fan WOME aag Jamad AB IRU 3 AJEA Figure 4 6 Example of RES Reference Energy System ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A15 Using the RES it is possible to see how energy flows and how energy conversion technologies influence the fuel technology chains in an energy system This means that the benefit of coupled production can be estimated according to its contribution to both the district heating sub system and the electrical sub system The roles of these sub systems can be evaluated from the perspective of the entire energy system and the requirements on this system This overall perspective is particularly important when one evaluates demand side energy conservation technologies i e the balance between supply and conservation measures or the cost efficiency of a proposed investment to control em
244. r display in the top half of the form will initially appear as follows with the single Results Parameter COST ACT selected Tiny TIMESMode l ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Run Tools Functions Help Fl JEJEJ HT results Regions Filter items All Cases All Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochast Items Filter le Gets ff Named ran Fesults Parameters Sets Filter Hamed Filter ltem Management Annual Activity Costs aggregated over vintages Tenet eae Parameter Sete COST_COM Annual Commodity Costs a O COST COM Annual Commodity T ases Subsidies Hew opi Delete Edit COST DAM Annual Damage Cost Term COST DEC Annual Decommissioning Costs aggregated over vinta v _Selectallitems wove FES Ts data Y 4 Change the setting of the long combobox immediately above the Results Parameters display from All Results Parameters to LEVEL Results Parameters Levels and then multi select the Results Parameters VAR_FLO IN L VAR _FLO OUT L and VAR_IRE IMP L so that we see the Commodity flows into and out of each of the three Processes IMPNGAS ECCNGAS RELCHPUMP as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 54 Tiny TIMESModel ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling aA File Edit wiew Bun Tools Functions Help PREE ai Fal reo a E Global TimeSiice
245. r to Delete Edit existing Regions at any point in the development of the ANSWER TIMES database Note that when you create a New Region say region REG2 it will automatically contain the same TimeSlice Items as the already existing Regions and a message appears reminding you that after exiting the Region Management form you will need to specify values for the Global parameter G_DRATE and for the TimeSlice parameters G_YRFR in the New Region New Region needs values for G_ DRATE and for G_TRER ey The new Region REG contains the same Time Slice Items as existing Regions You should LD 1 Move to the Global tab and specify values For G DRATE fin Region REGZ 2 Move to the TimeSlice tab and specify G YRFER Values for TimeSlices in Region RESZ For comprehensive details regarding the Region Management facility see section 2 5 Region Management of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual 3 3 3 Global Tab Global Data Parameters In TIMES there are a asmall number of parameters that do not have a region index and b a small number of parameters that have a region index but do not have any other index In ANSWER TIMES parameters in both categories a and b are displayed on the Global Tab with category a parameters being displayed when the special GLOBAL region is selected and with category b parameters being displayed for a specific Internal Region when that particular Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES
246. rameters Where a TIMES model has sub Annual TimeSlices they should be specified on the Data Screen TimeSlice Tab before entering data on tabs to the right of the TimeSlice Tab e For comprehensive details regarding the creation of sub Annual TimeSlices see Section 14 Handling of TimeSlices in ANSWER TIMES in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual e See also subsection 3 3 4 of this Getting Started manual Even though the tiny TIMES model has no sub Annual TimeSlices and hence there is nothing to do on the TlmeSlice Tab it is instructive to visit the TimeSlice Tab and see the information that is displayed there for a model with only ANNUAL TimeSlices The screen snapshot below is what Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 19 results if we move to the TimeSlice Tab and click on the Select All Items button in the Item Management frame Tiny TIMESMode l ANSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit View Bun Tools Functions Help ae z 9S d Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter lterms Filter E Sets C Named an Time Slices ALL TS Sets Filter Named Filter Item Management ANNUAL GLOBAL Annual All 3 items selected Sets ANNUAL DEMO Annual ANNUAL IMIPEXP Annual Ww op Delete Select All tems zi E subset Parameters Time Slice Specific T mece a a a E m
247. ranges O MULTI Multiplier table Time Independent Parameters G_ DYEAR Base year for discounting SHAPE Shaping table SW LAMBDA Risk aversion coefficient stochastic TH_ARBHM Multiplier for last period length TH SCALE CST Sealing factor for cost units TH_SCALE HE Sealing factor for demand units TH_ SCALE UTIL Scaling factor for utility function Of the eight parameters apart from G_DYEAR SW_LAMBDA is used only for the Stochastic TIMES Extension the four TM_ SCALE parameters are used only for the TIMES MACRO Extension and the G_OFFTHD MULTI and SHAPE parameters are advanced parameters The screenshot below shows the Global Tab when Internal Region REG has been selected For this particular database we see displayed the G_DRATE Discount rate for a currency parameter and also G_YRFR Seasonal fraction of the year parameter instances for each TimeSlice Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 67 Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter e Sets Named emas oo Special region for data parameters with no REG arg IMPEXP MINAN Region 1 E So Add BASE S a EE es E esere Paonia Regon Report Yeni Tiestee Cosep tore it Yale pease G_YAFR 2 REG b ANNUAL 1 0000 B ee n a l o C ease a yRFR REG ooo o boo boo bho AD bo tO pase G yaFR_ EReG ooo deo o ooo o eoo o
248. re the small scale energy technologies that consume final energy to meet the demand for energy services e g oil fired boilers for multi family houses solar heating systems for single family houses electrical appliances petrol fuel cars and small scale combined heat and power plants as well as conservation measures which reduce the need for certain energy services and 6 Useful energy demand appears on the right most part of the RES as the energy services needed for different kinds of applications e g space heating lighting and cooking While not shown on the RES examples here it is often advisable for the analyst to pass commodities through dummy sector processes to adjust the name of commodities according to the consuming sector e g COMELC RSDDSL CONCOA etc to facilitate construction of the energy balance tables and make it easier to track commodities use in general Figure 4 7 depicts a small portion of a hypothetical RES containing a single energy service demand namely residential space heating Moving from right to left there are three end use space heating technologies using the gas electricity and heating oil energy carriers commodities respectively These energy carriers in turn are produced by other technologies represented in the diagram by one gas plant three electricity generating plants gas fired coal fired oil fired and one oil refinery To complete the production chain on the primary energy side
249. rgy environment or economics policy makers When negotiations start between different policy makers in a country or different countries with the aim of agreeing on some common target it is necessary to know in advance what are the trade offs between different objectives to be reached 4 4 1 4 Policies instruments and specific measures as control variables The development of energy systems can be controlled by several types of policy instruments Traditionally domestic policies and measures can be grouped as follows e Legal Instruments command and control codes to improve the thermal insulation of buildings minimum efficiency standards for end use devices including cars integrated prevention and pollution control over existing and new plants traffic restrictions etc e Direct Investments energy research development and deployment RD amp D procurement e Other Economic Instruments tax and subsidies liberalisation unbundling etc Voluntary Agreements rational use of energy industry municipalities energy audits in industry services buildings phase out of the less efficient end use devices etc e Diffusion of Information monitoring mechanism energy labels of end use devices and Examples of measures in the field of energy R amp D and technology development policy are e Analysing competitiveness of technologies or energy chains e g gas or district heating grid under different economic assumptions and market barrier
250. rial by weight PR Material by volume PRY iE Miscellaneous MISC e ts Process Activity and Process Capacity Units and its PRC_CAPACT value are the defaults for a HPL Process of petajoules and gigawatts and 31 536 respectively Units Process Actwiky Units petajoules z Process Capacity Units gigawatts z PAC_CAPACT Value E 356 Change Units In older ANSWER TIMES databases you may find that the defaults for a HPL Process are petajoules and petajoules annum and 1 respectively If so use the Edit Unit Defaults facility to change them see section 4 3 Reviewing and editing default Units for each Database Component of the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual e tis specified as a Process that has an Output based Activity with a single NRG input commodity OIL and with the single NRG output commodity HEAT designated as the PCG for the process and also with ENV commodity CO2 designated as an output To see this move to the I O Commodities tab Input Output Commodities C nput based Process Activity Carbon Dioxide J HEAT Low Temp Heat For this example of a District Heating Plant the output commodity HEAT happens to have Commodity Set Memberships of Low Ternperature Heat LTHEAT but it would also be fine for it to have Set Memberships of High Temperature Heat HTHEAT _ e District Heat Process HEATOILB has the following parameters associated with it HEATOILB REG Oi Boiler Dist
251. riations because in general a model run will comprise the BASE scenario as modified by only a subset of the non BASE scenarios that the database contains 2 5 1 Creating a new non BASE scenario To create a new non BASE scenario and begin entering data into it e Move to the Home Screen click on the New button below the Scenarios listview enter the Name and Description for the new non BASE scenario into the New Scenario form E New Scenario DER Enter name description and optional comment for the new scenario Name Description cozums0 coz limit set at 90 of 2010 levels from 2020 onwards Comment OF Cancel and click on the OK button The newly created non BASE scenario will be displayed in the Scenarios listview and will also be saved to the Database e Click on the gt button between the Scenarios listview and the Selected Scenarios listview so that the newly created scenario becomes one of the selected scenarios in the Selected Scenarios listview top RHS quadrant of the Home Screen Selected Scenarios Modified BASE exampled demons 2013 09 14 18 36 CO2LIMS0 CO limit set at 90 2013709730 27 59 e Double click anywhere on the line containing the newly created scenario to select this scenario as the editable scenario note the B icon in the CO2LIM90 row below Selected Scenarios Modified CE BASE exampled demons 2013 09 74 18 36 F COPLIM SO COZ limit set at 90 2073 09 30 2
252. rict Heat Plant SM we Subset Parameters c Process Specific ts 71D data Scenario Parameter Region Process Commadit Commroup Com Item iteme iE 1990 2000 2mo 2m5 2020 REG HEATOILE lt b o 15000 1 6000 1 5000 1 5000 1 5000 HEATOILB ANNUAL O 0 9000 oaooo 0 9000 0 9000 0 3000 ANNUAL O 75 0000 75 0000 75 0000 76 0000 75 0000 NCAP_AFA UFP o 0 4500 0 4500 0 4500 0 4500 0 4500 p o 150 0000 150 0000 150 0000 150 0000 150 0000 b O 10 0000 10 0000 10 0000 10 0000 10 0000 b a a E E E E TPROCESSES NCAP_FOM TPROCESSES NCAP_TLIFE TPROCESSES Scenario Parameter PROCESSES PRC_CAPACT TPROCESSES TOPIN T a T 7 g G G G G G G E E HEATOILE 285 5H oo a HEATOILE ae a ee ee ee Eee egion ae I EATOILE Eoo HEATOILB EATOILB EATOILB ae ae x TPROCESSES TOP OUT a TPROCESSES TOP OUT 9 EG ac EG EG M EG Add TPROCESSES rio A small point it is possible to use the FLO_EMIS parameter for process HEATOILB to specify the CO2 emissions associated with burning OIL to create HEAT without needing Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 86 to explicitly specify on the I O Commodities tab that CO2 is an output commodity for process HEATOILB 3 3 7 5 Specifying a Combined Heat amp Power Plant CHP First note th
253. rounding areas such as vehicle traffic of commuters to a town or the trade of energy intensive materials of a country it is sometimes better to define the boundaries of the logical system It is also to be decided whether a single comprehensive energy system has to be considered or it is to be sub divided into more than one region In the first case the representation will be based upon an aggregate energy balance and will describe an average situation If more sub regions are to be employed to describe for instance the European Union such as the Northern Central and Southern parts or each member state it will necessary to identify and quantify energy flows technologies emissions and economic values separately for each region as well as the possibilities for trade between the regions 4 2 3 The time dimension Statistics and macro variables refer to annual values Keeping the year as a base the time dimension of the system can be explored in two dimensions One looks at the variations from one year to another inter years the second at the variations inside the typical year intra annual The system control looks at long term developments over the years other important energy systems aspects such as electricity and heat or gas supply and traffic refer to intra annual dimensions 4 2 3 1 Time horizon The main concern of energy systems analyses and the rationale for building energy system models is the study of possible
254. s e COM _ELAST COM _ELASTX COM VOC COM STEP are associated with the Elastic Demand Extension e DAM COST DAM _TQTY DAM _TVOC DAM BQTY DAM ELAST DAM_STEP DAM_VOC are associated with the Damages Extension e S COM FR S_COM PROJ S DAM COST S COM CUMNET S COM CUMPRD are associated with the Stochastic Extension But nonetheless more than 50 of these commodity specific parameters are associated with standard TIMES Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 78 3 3 6 CommGroup Tab the role of Commodity Groups in ANSWER TIMES You may have noticed that there is no mention of the CommGroup Tab in Section 2 of this Getting Started Manual This is because there is no need for the user to be concerned with the CommGroup Tab for the tiny TIMES model In the following subsection 3 3 7 we will see an example of a Process SREFO04 where the Primary Commodity Group PCG is a true commodity group So comprising two or more commodities of the same commodity type and we will see that in this situation use of the ANSWER TIMES New Process form will result in the automatic generation of this true commodity group with Name lt processname gt G SREF004 G in the same Region as the Process We will switch across to the CommGroup Tab to see that this automatic generation has happened including automatic generation of the appropriate COM _GMAP parameter instances However also in the foll
255. s TID data x combobox displays all possible TIMES commodity specific parameters with minor variations in the parameters that are displayed according to the type of Commodity that is selected in the Commodity Items listview For example if a DEM Demand for Energy Services Commodity is selected in the Commodity Items listview the possible TIMES commodity specific parameters shown in the screenshot on the following page will be displayed There are 24 Time Series TS Parameters and 15 Time Independent TID Parameters indicating the richness of commodity specific possibilities that are available in TIMES Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 77 1 Data Parameter Information for RH for region REG and scenario s BASE HER Legend data parameter exists C compulsory O optional illegal missing compulsory Time Senes Parameters COM PROJ Demand baseline projection COM AGG Commodity aggregation parameter COM BHDHET Net bound on commodity e g emissions COM BHDPRD Limit on production of a commodity COM CSTHET Cost on Net of commodity e g emissions taz COM CSTPRD Cost on production of 4 commodity COM ELAST Elasticity of demand COM ELASTH Elasticity shape of demand COM _FR Seasonal distribution of 4 commodity COM_IE Seasonal efficiency of a commodity COM PEFLE Peaking flux ratio COM PERSY Peaking reserve margin COM SUBHET Subsidy on a commodity net
256. s Filter Hamed Filter ri bileletaetitct ECCHGAS Combined cycle Gas Power Plant a Sets RELCHPUMP Residential Electric Heat Pump New Copy Delete Edit Select All ltem e RES Subset Parameters Jrc Process Specific ts TID data Scenario Parameter Region Process Commo CommGir CommGrou itew5 teme VE 2005 2mo 205 2020 SS CC Soeg Parameter SQ Resion Process Comma item3 _ Ysar Item6 Item Value fee PRCACTUNT DEMO RELCHPUMP hhe Jp o o e ft L FASE PRC_CAPACT IPEMO RELCHPUMP bo oo o boo 10000 ke hom fomo oeme o Rt ENE TOROUT DEMO RELCHPUMP RHEAT o QL MIA Databaze C 4newern lIMESvbVAnswer Databases T iny TIMES Model mdb Edit Scenario BASE AA Note that TID parameter instances PRC_ACTUNT PRC_CAPACT TOP IN and TOP OUT for the Process are automatically generated with appropriate numeric values 11 To complete the specification of Process RELCHPUMP the following additional TIMES parameter instances need to be specified it happens that they are all TS parameters e ACT_EFF Activity efficiency for a process e NCAP_COST Investment cost for new capacity e NCAP_TLIFE Technical lifetime of a process 12 Use the AddRow facility in the TS spread to add ACT_EFF NCAP_COST and NCAP_TLIFE parameter instances with numeric values of 4 0 15 0 and 15 respectively in each Time Period so that the TS data spread appears as follows Sub
257. s to define import export prices between external regions and internal regions any IRE_PRICE parameter instance that is defined between two internal regions is ignored by the TIMES GAMS code The remaining 6 Trade Processes IMPDSL1 IMPGAS1 IMPURN1 are examples of Market Trade Processes that specify import of diesel DSL natural gas GAS uranium URN respectively from external region IMPEXP into each of the internal regions DEMO and UTOPIA Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual Exactly similar steps are required for the specification of each of these Trade processes Some aspects of the specification of the Trade Process IMPDSL1 are provided in subsection 3 3 8 3 3 3 8 2 Specification of Bilateral Trade Process BITRADE ELC 1 Click on the New button in the Item Management frame to bring up the New Trade Process form and In the Item Information frame enter BITRADE ELC and Bilateral Trade in Electricity in the Name and Description textboxes e In the Type of Trade frame click on the Bilateral Trade option button In the Commodity Type and Naming frame accept the default settings of NRG in the Type combobox ELC is an NRG Commodity and of checked for the Same Commodity Name in All Regions checkbox the Electricity being traded is named ELC in both the DEMO and UTOPIA regions In the Set Memberships frame click on the Electricity Generation ELE leaf node of th
258. sed DDS Automatic Repair amp Compact after Import Cancel 2 After run BASETINY has obtained an optimal solution and automatic import of results has occurred click on the View LST button below the Cases listview bottom LHS quadrant of Home Screen to bring up inside Wordpad the BASETINY LST file created by the TIMES GAMS run Use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of Equation Listing so that you are at the beginning of the Equation Listing section If you cannot find Equation Listing be suspicious that you forgot to replace LIMROW 0 by LIMROW 99 Now use Wordpad s Find facility to locate the particular part of the Equation Listing that is currently of interest For example if you are currently interested in what specific instances of the Capacity Utilization equation look like you would seek to locate EQL_CAPACT or maybe just CAPACT This requires knowledge on your part that the first type of Capacity Utilization equation is named EQL_CAPACT in the TIMES GAMS code In the TIMES GAMS code there are two other types of Capacity Utilization equations named EQE_CAPACT and EQG_CAPACT 2 6 1 1 Alternative way of Ensuring an Equation Listing in the GAMS LST file If you want to carry out a succession of runs in which the GAMS LST file contains an Equation Listing there is an alternative simpler way of proceeding than that described at step 1 above 0 Before clicking on the Run Model button
259. seeeeessaaseeesssaaaes 32 ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A2 4 1 The multiple dimensions of energy systems Present energy systems are the result of complex country dependent multi sector developments Although each decision in this n step path may have provided rational answers based upon energy engineering economic or environmental reasons for short 4E it is hard to find rationality in the overall system Furthermore decisions take into account several other important dimensions that broadly speaking are part of humanities or social sciences The four main dimensions encompassed by energy systems analysis will be shortly illustrated in the following pages Although social sciences touch aspects as fundamental as the four mentioned above they are not treated here because the ETSAP modelling tools are not yet in the position to represent them explicitly and quantitatively At most ETSAP tools help to measure how large the gap is between actual and theoretical systems 4 1 1 Energy from primary resource to end use services An energy system comprises an energy supply sector and energy end use The energy supply sector consists of a sequence of elaborate and complex processes for extracting energy resources converting these into more desirable and suitable forms of energy and delivering energy to places where the demand exists The end use part of the energy system provides energy services such as cooking
260. set Parameters c Process Specific Ts TID data Scenario Parameter Region Process Commo CommGr CommGrou Items Item ie 2005 2m0 ams 2020 Pease ACT_EFF_ DEMO RELCHPUMP ELC ANNUAL fo 4 0000 4 0000 4 0000 4 0000 BASE NCAP_COST 2 DEMO RELCHPUMP j bho 15 0000 15 0000 15 0000 15 0000 BASE NCAP TUFE 2 DEMO RELCHPUMP b o bho o bo bo 0y 1 S s s Ee ee eee eee Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 37 2 3 7 TradeProcess Tab specify Trade Processes amp associated Data Parameters Trade Processes should be specified on the TradeProcess Tab 2 3 7 1 Overview of what is involved in specifying a new TIMES Trade Process The overview of what is involved in specifying a new TIMES Trade Process is as follows e Ensure that you have already specified the Commodity Commodities that is are traded by this Trade Process do this on the Commodity Tab see subsection 2 3 5 Remember that proper operation of ANSWER TIMES requires that the Commodity that is traded must be specified in both Regions that are involved in the trade even where one of these Regions is an External Region e Move to the TradeProcess tab bring up the New Trade Process form and i Specify the Trade Process Name and Description ii Specify the Type of Trade Bilateral Market and the Commodity Type and Naming iii While on the Set Memberships U
261. shed methods Transparent assumptions on framework structure and data Internally consistency Regular updates when new relevant information are available Reproducible mental experiments and lterations with new assumptions towards new targets and for new policies Even though developing learning and applying computer models are time consuming efforts it becomes an essential step of the planning process in order to deal with the complexity and uncertainty of energy systems development As in traditional engineering here too control strategies are elaborated through quantitative mathematical models of the system However energy systems energy models and energy policies models are completely different from the traditional engineering systems mathematical models and control strategies Energy systems are only partly governed by technical laws A large if not the largest part of the system is governed by social economic and behavioural laws Since the development of energy systems results from independent and free choices of billions of agents its configuration 20 or 50 years ahead is unknown Since the laws determining the development of the system are not deterministic deterministic models represent the system development in an incomplete way The images of the future that are calculated through these models are what if projections but neither forecasts nor predictions Furthermore contrary to traditional engineering co
262. sis of peak vs off peak supply problems 16 20 time slices appear necessary to analyse in some detail the different dynamics over the years of demands for energy services and the possible contribution of renewable energy sources The different consumption and supply patterns are then reflected in the TIMES parameter COM_FR ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A13 This category also encompasses commodities such as air emissions e g carbon sulphur and nitrogen oxides or wastes to be disposed such as spent nuclear fuels or municipal wastes How much of the actual system has to be comprehended in the identification effort depends on the objective of the analysis Sometimes the analysis not only includes all energy commodities for which Statistical data are available but it also extends to detailed energy services in all producing and consuming sectors For instance in the transport sector the analysis often splits demands and end use devices among Private Passenger Road Car Short Distance Private Passenger Road Car Long Distance Public Passenger Road Bus Urban Road Freight and Rail Freight 4 2 4 2 Technologies Technologies are the second essential element of the system They are even more important than commodities if the system has a high technical content as an energy system does In this context energy supply processes include power plants and refineries and transmission distribution infrastructures su
263. st pricing so often used in the context of optimizing models is incorrect The term marginal value pricing is a more appropriate term to use The marginal technology of a market is the technology that supplies the most expensive unit of commodity that has been exchanged In some cases it can be linked to the cheapest unit of demand satisfied by the market Daily life experience shows that prices are also influenced by demand side reactions e g prices of petroleum products coming out of the same refinery complex are priced differently depending on the demand higher demands for light fuels compared to heavy ones lt is important to note that marginal value pricing does not imply that suppliers have zero profit Profit is exactly equal to the suppliers surplus and it is generally positive Only the last few units produced may have zero profit if and when their production cost equals the equilibrium price and even in this case zero profit is not automatic ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A26 lt happens indeed rather frequently in the energy sector that market prices are different from marginal values Economists explain these differences with market imperfections resource rents CO2 permit prices energy policies e g nuclear renewable policies etc Some of them can be captured by systems analysis of this type others such as oligopoly rents or market power cannot On the other hand it is important to r
264. strategy A hedging strategy is obtained if the policy maker includes in his her thinking all possible future scenarios to produce a single strategy until the uncertainty is resolved This is normal practice in several fields a homeowner hedges against many possible futures fire theft ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A34 hurricane by insuring his house a businessman hedges against exchange rate fluctuations by buying a future for a currency Such strategy is illustrated in Figure 4 18 The dotted lines represent emissions for a hedging strategy it has a single trajectory before 2050 and multiple trajectories after uncertainty is resolved 19 16 5 lt 14 5 BC PF 1 5 C Fl PF 3 C 3 4 PF 5 C O 8 7 PF 8 C a HEDGING 1 5 C D 4J HEDGING 3 C 3 7 A HEDGING 5 C 34 HEDGING 8 C 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Figure 4 18 Example of hedging strategy ETSAP 2013
265. sults ccccceesseeeeeeeeeeees 43 2 4 1 Overview of the operation of the Run Model facility ccccccecccsseeceeeeeeeeeeesaeeeeeeeseeeeeeeesaaees 43 2 4 2 Using the Run Model facility for the Tiny TIMES Model Overview cccccseeseeeeeeeeeeeeees 43 2 4 3 Important Features of the RUN Model FOrwm ccccccccssseeceeceeeeeeecceeeeeeeeseaeeeeessaaeseeseaaeeeess 46 2 4 3 1 lGehange Run DUNO berein tbl enenasn ea ee T 47 2 4 3 2 Name and Description textboxes ccccccccssseececceeseeeecceeeeceeecaeueeeesseaueceesseeueeeessaagesessaaaass 47 2 4 3 3 Specify Model Variant button and associated textbox ccccecccsseeeeeeeeeeeeeenteeeeeeeeeeaes 48 2 4 3 4 Specify Milestone Years OUttON cccccccsseeccccceseeeeccceesececeseaueceeseeeeceesseaeseeesseaeeeeesaaaess 48 2 4 3 5 Scenarios comprising this run display and associated buttons cceceeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeees 49 2 4 3 6 Redons DUTION 4 xfs Sep se a b Sesaned caatiecs a a a 50 2 4 4 Files generated by an ANSWER TIMES initiated TIMES GAMS run 51 2 4 5 Examining ANSWER TIMES Results for a TIMES GAMS Ful cccccceeeeeeeceeeeeeeeeeeeaeneeees 52 2 5 Non BASE SCENTS cise ctasesteta beater aa ie aed ie desea ovieel x asst Sage bees thane ne 56 2 5 1 Creating a new NON BASE SCEMNALMIO ccccccccseseececcceeeceecaeeeeeeecueueceeecseeeeeesssaaeeeesseaeeeesenaaess 56 2 6 Usefulness of an Equation
266. system analysis is restricted to a limited number of sub systems within the whole technical energy system Concentrating only on a sub system offers the possibility to study the interdependencies of the system in much detail but influences from or to other sub systems are considered only in a simplified manner A comprehensive analysis on the other hand tries to treat all important sub systems and their interdependencies within one model In this framework part of the details and comprehensiveness of actual systems can be retained part lost The expertise of the analyst helps reaching a balance between the details of an actual system and the synthesis of any mental representations 4 2 2 Boundaries Geographical boundaries are defined by the nature of the problem energy R amp D problems or climate change mitigation studies may require a global model security issues require at least a regional approach designing taxes and subsidies requires a national system waste disposal options or local pollution problems are to be studied at the urban local level A general description of the system should cover the geographic situation climate temperature the population historical series and the differing conditions between rural and urban areas the economy and the main features of the energy system Sometimes the identification is more complex particularly at the local level When there are huge exchanges between the geographical system and the sur
267. t TESA er aria e Curent Trade Process Hater ade ectricity a Bilateral Trade in Electricity BITRADE ELC Sets Import of Diesel IMPGAS1 Import of Natural Gas IMPGSL1 Import of Gasoline IMPHCO1 Import of Hard Coal IMPOIL1 Import of Crude IMPURN1 Import of Uranium New Copy Delete Edit Select All Items Hove RES Subset Parameters e peee pee pe en es e ee pe om T IRE_PRICE should f BASE IRE_PRICE DEMO UTOPIA BITRADE LC ELC ANNUAL MP O 2 0000 2000 not be specified See e afvrona oeo toese te unto E o asenn aso es see below feas tenes drapes ecclissi ieee tet die ae C BASE UTOPIA BITRADE ELC DEMO BITRADE ELC Edit Scenario BASE 4 Database C AnswerlTIMESv6 Answer_Databases Utopia_Demo_UC mdb The first of these Trade Processes BITRADE ELC is an example of a Bilateral Trade Process that specifies bilateral trade in electricity ELC as being possible between internal regions DEMO and UTOPIA so from region DEMO to region UTOPIA and also from region UTOPIA to region DEMO Some details of the specification of this Trade Process are provided in subsection 3 3 8 2 If you have an older version of database Utopia_Demo_UC mdb on your PC then it will display two IRE_PRICE parameter instances for Trade Process BITRADE ELC as circled above THIS IS AN ERROR The purpose of the IRE_PRICE parameter i
268. t uncertainties of far reaching projections or otherwise doubtful input data different paths of future development involving more complex changes to the model database may be analysed i e variations of more than one model parameter value are necessary For example it will usually not suffice to vary the price of coal at one point in time rather the period values throughout the time frame will have to be changed for an assessment of a price scenario Furthermore taking into account the interdependency of prices of the various energy carriers an alternative price path for coal should trigger different price changes for other energy carriers as well Therefore an event tree is often used to examine which possible combinations of exogenous variables projections are feasible meaningful of interesting see Figure 4 15 Consistent hypotheses of the prices of relevant energy carriers over the study time frame have to be assessed in separate model runs and the results analysed thereafter Each hypothesis must be based upon predicted global economic developments as well as conditions specifically connected to the area of investigation This is perhaps the most difficult step in scenario analysis Low High Electricity price A s Lowy High Low High Interest rate i 4 p Low High Low High Low High Low High Natural gas limit rs m rs gt G s o gt Lowy igh CHP limit O O O O O O O O O O O O O 1 2 3 5 F g 10 11 1 13 14 5 16 Choosen scen
269. tain most of the non BASE scenarios in the Example4 mdb database 3 2 Overview of the different types of ANSWER TIMES Documentation The general philosophy adopted in the preparation of this Getting Started Manual has been to provide a reasonable level of detail of how to use ANSWER TIMES to specify the main components of a TIMES energy system model e fin some places you find that insufficient detail has been provided you should refer to the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual pdf that is mentioned below e ANSWER TIMES users who are using the VEDA BE software for their results analysis should refer to the manual Using VEDA BE with ANSWER TIMES pdf that is mentioned below In addition to this Getting Started Manual there is a variety of other documentation of the ANSWER TIMES software that falls into the following broad categories e ANSWER TIMES Manuals in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 UserManuals that range in length from 24 pages to 342 pages e ANSWER TIMES Software Update documents and other small documents on specific features in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc e 12 documents each of which describes in detail the mechanics of using ANSWER TIMES to work with a specific TIMES Model Variant Extension also in folder C AnswerTIMESv6 Doc Additional details regarding each of these broad categories of documentation is provided in subsections 3 2 1 to 3 2 3 below Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started
270. the Edit Data button move to the TradeProcess tab and select MINGAS If you click on the Edit button in the Item Management frame to bring up the Edit Trade Process form then you will see the following key features of Trade Process MINGAS e tis defined as a Market Trade Process where the Market Region is MINRNW Type of Trade Commodity Type and Naming Bilateral Trade f Market Trade Market Region MINRNW Type NRG W Same Commodity Hame in All Regions e The commodity GAS being mined extracted is specified as the Traded Commodity To see this move to the Traded Commodities tab Traded Trade Matrix Master Tade 2 ee Hatural Gas e The Market Region MINRNW exports the commodity being mined extracted GAS to the Internal Region REG To see this move to the Trade Matrix tab IMPEXP MINN Cisas GAS Note that if you are creating Trade Process MINGAS as a New Trade Process and you have forgotten to specify Commodity GAS in External Region MINRNW then when you move to the Trade Matrix tab you will find that each of the cells circled above is blank rather than containing GAS and you will be unable to specify the Trade Matrix e Trade Process MINGAS has the following parameters associated with it Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 83 B MINGAS Extract Natural Gas STG wa eee eee Subset Parameters 0 Trade Process Specific Ts TID data 2
271. the ANSWER interface to display that Parameter So for example the ACT COST parameter has a Process in the Item1 position column C with placeholders of in the Item2 to Item6 positions columns D to H Cell of the row should contain the I E Interpolate Extrapolate Option Code to be applied to the numeric values that are specified in cells J K L of the row 123 nee B E E G J K E N O P TS DATA IREG1 REG2 REG3 2 3 TS Process Data for non Demand Devices Grouped by Process REG1 REG2 REG3 regions 4 ACT COST E01 0 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 5 ACT_EFF E01 HCO ANNUAL 0 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 6 FLO EMIS E01 C02 HCO ANNUAL 0 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 is NCAP_AFA E01 UP 0 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 8 NCAP_COST E01 0 1400 1300 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 z NCAP_FOM E01 0 40 70 100 100 100 100 100 10 NCAP_TLIFE E01 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 wg 12 ACT COST E21 0 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1E ACT_EFF E21 URN ANNUAL 0 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 14 NCAP_AF E21 ANNUAL UP 0 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 is NCAP_COST E21 0 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 16 NCAP_FOM E21 0 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 li NCAP_TLIFE E21 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 16 i ACT_EFF E31 HYD ANNUAL 0 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 0 32 20 CAP_BND E31 LO 0 0 13 0 13 0 13 null null null null nu 21 CAP_BND E31 UP 0 0 13 0 17 0 21 null null null null nu 22 NCAP_AF E31 FA UP 0 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 23
272. the Traded Commodities tab circled above and Use the Add Comm button to bring up the Trade Commodity Selection form Select ELC as the Commodity being traded Click on OK to exit the Trade Commodity Selection form The top of the Traded Commodities tab will appear as follows Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 99 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 100 O ee Where the Commodity being traded has the Same Name in All Regions a Trade Process may trade a number of different Commodities Specify the Traded Commodities below and then move to the Trade Matrix tab to specity the Trade Matris for each Traded Commodity Traded Trade Matrix Masher He E Hs Ig a ieee Electricity 3 Click on the Trade Matrix tab circled above and To specify that trade in electricity ELC is possible from region DEMO to region UTOPIA click on the checkbox in the DEMO row and UTOPIA column e To specify that trade in electricity ELC is possible from region UTOPIA to region DEMO click on the checkbox in the UTOPIA row and DEMO column The Trade Matrix tab will appear as follows Set Memberships Units Traded Commodities Trade Matrix Use Commodity combobox to specify the Name of the Traded Commodity and then use checkboxes to TM Same as Master Clear TH specify the Trade Matrix Festore TM Commodity eze Electricity IT All Links Bi Directional Check TM Integrity EXPMIMP a DEMO UTOPIA IMPEXP MINA
273. the United States low sulphur fuel oil for all other countries e For commercial purposes jd Unleaded premium gasoline 93 RON unleaded regular for Australia Corada Japan Korea Mexico New Zealand Figure 4 12 Fuel Retail Prices 1 2 US Unit How do these market prices match with the quantity of energy flowing through the system and the stock of technologies transforming one commodity into another Assuming the theory of economic equilibrium as starting point for the analysis market prices should represent the point where supply and demand curves match 13 Taken from the Key World Energy Statistics of the International Energy Agency ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A24 Nat Gas for Nat Gas for Industry Households for Industry Industry Households 10 kcal GV 107 kcal GCV ikan kWh j 0 0609 L 0 0985 L Australia T 744 54 0 1056 0 1613 Austria C Belgium 221 71 L 395 18 L A Canada 380 70 354 97 a 0 0512 0 0690 Chinese Taipei 377 03 519 44 C 0 0892 0 1161 Czech Republic C 270 76 a 0 0759 L 0 2935 Denmark 235 59 334 95 126 07 0 0701 0 1200 Finland 382 29 653 44 123 43 L 0 0483 0 1365 France k A 0 0769 L 0 1975 L Germany 305 66 L 503 14 L 0 0673 L 0 1138 L Greece 405 42 373 74 0 1068 0 1266 Hungary T 7 34 89 L j 7 India 566 23 606 43 0 1071 0 1842 Ireland C C 69 40 L 0 1684 L 0 1995 L Italy 392 53 L 1271 52 L 65 66 0 1272 L 0 1963 L Japan 467 42 609 75 0 0638 0 0
274. ting Started Manual 13 New Database Save in Answer_Databases e f amp En Fh best4 mdb 4h TIMES 110915 mdb a lal RetirementOPCapacityDemo mdb lal Example4 v668 mdb My Recent lal Copy2 of Example4 ve72 mdb lal Utopia _Demo_UC_Results mdb Documents lal Example4 v672 mdb lal Utopia _Demo_UC mdb Lal LEF mdb lal Copy 2 of Example4 v668 mdb lal Utopia _Demo_UC_Data mdb lal Ubopia_Demo_UC_665 mdb lal Copy of Example4 ve72 mdb lal RetirementOPCapacityDemo Task 2 TIMES DEMO dense v672 mdb lal TIMES DEMO dense v66e mdb 7h testTS mdb 7h tstPRC_RESID mdb lal Exampled v66e v672 mdb lal Example4 v66e Retire mdb BE Ceuments 7h best mdb lal Copy i3 of EmptyDemoMultitegio lal copy of EmptyDemoMultiRegion v6 7 2 1db lal copy 2 of EmptyDemoMultitegio PE lal EmptyDemoMultitegion v 7 mdb lal Copy of EmptyDemoMultiRtegion m lal EmptyDemoMultitegion mdb 7 Utopia_Demo_v6el mdb lal Copy of Example4 v668 mdb lal Copy of Yenice TIMES Training De 4 i My Computer e F 4 My Network File name Tiny TIMES Model Places Save as type Access Database mdb 13 By default the File name field is set to the Description entered at step 5 above namely TinyTIMESModel The Save as type field must remain as Access Database mdb 14 Click on Save This will both save the Database and create an empty BASE Scenario within it Also a message appears indicating that the new TIMES Database has bee
275. tinguishes three main types of processes e Standard processes e Inter regional exchange processes and e Storage processes In TIMES a Standard Process is a generic process that handles most of the different types of energy technologies e g electricity generation technologies heat generation technologies process technologies refinery processes demand devices that are needed in an energy system model and to which a common set of TIMES Process Data Parameters is applicable The predecessor MARKAL model required several process types each often with a set of specific data parameters to describe these different technology types The generic definition of the TIMES Standard Process allows the possibility of having a flexible process which has multiple input commodities and or multiple output commodities and where there can be genuine flexibility in the way in which the multiple inputs combine to produce the multiple outputs This is a type of process that is almost entirely lacking in MARKAL where nearly all types of technologies require fixed proportions of input s and output s In TIMES an Inter Regional Exchange IRE Process or Trade Process is used for trading a commodity commodities between regions Trade Processes are discussed in section 3 3 8 In TIMES a Storage Process is used to store a commodity either between periods or between timeslices Storage Processes are not discussed in this Getting Started manual Speci
276. tion form and then click on the OK button 17b The Add Row now appears as follows with the Parameter combobox containing ACT_EFF with the Region and Process indexes automatically set to DEMO and ECCNGAS respectively but with two more indexes to be specified indicated by the two empty comboboxes that are circled in the screen snapshot below subset Parameters c Process Specific Ts T10 data Scenario Parameter __ Region _ Process Commo Commtir CommGrou Item5 Item 2005 200 ams 2020 NCAPCOST 2 DEMO EccNGas fo o doo o booo o booo po jo paooooooj4oo ooo0 4o0 o000 400 0000l NCAP_FOM DEMO ECCNGAS e 30 0000 30 0000 30 0000 30 0000 NCAP_TLIFE 2 DEMO ECCNGAS emmy mmm 0 Jaa AE dE E De eee eee 17c Right mouse click on the first empty combobox and select the View Descriptions menu option O Jesse NCAP TLUFE a pemo jeccnegas ea a M View Descriptions Toggle Size 17d The Add Row CommGroup Selection form will appear click on NGAS to select it E Add Row CommGroup Item Selection in region DEMO ACTGRPE Activity related Group DEM Demand Commodity Type ELC Electricity ENV Environmental Commodity Type FIN Financial Commodity Type MAT Material Commodity Type NGAsS Natural Gas NRG Energy Commodity Type RHE AT Residential Heat Cancel and then click on the OK button Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 34
277. ty OK Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 64 asking for confirmation that you wish to add these new Data Time Periods to the database If you click on the OK button this message appears a second time which is perhaps overkill 3 3 1 2 Deleting Time Periods from an ANSWER TIMES database To delete Time Periods in an ANSWER TIMES database a Click on File in the menu bar and choose Delete Time Periods from Database in the drop menu Copy of Example4 679 QNSWER TIMES Energy Modelling File Edit wiew Run Tools Functions Help Hew Database Open Database Close Database Add Mew Time Periods to Database Delete Time Periods From Database Increase Scenario and Case Mame Length h 2 The Delete Time Periods from Database form will appear displaying the current Data Time Periods and the current Results Time Periods Delete Time Periods from Database select the Data Time Periods and or Results Time Periods that you wish to permanently delete from the current Database Data Time Pernods ee oo o ana ea as e a Se a a a a aja alaja Results Time Periods Z i o m a ee e e e Bocce Delete Cancel 3 Suppose that you want to delete Data Time Period 2015 but are happy with the Current Results Time Periods Then click in the 2015 checkbox in the Data Time Periods display Data Time Perods po 1880 2000 amo 2075 2020 2035
278. ual A20 efficiencies etc or ignorance about the amount that will be built and used However there are reasonable estimates available from various sources and existing MARKAL TIMES models 4 3 3 Emissions The Emission Inventory of a Country is designed to provide a comprehensive guide to the state atmospheric emissions Figure 4 10 shows an example of an emission inventory from CORINAIR for SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O and NH3 by activity Figure 4 11 shows an example of an emission inventory in the United State for PM10 PM2 5 NOx SO2 and NH4 Variable O amp M cost Investment Fixed Cost O amp M cost Availabili Efficiency Aeuro G Tech Lif Meuro M Meuro M Meura radne T b Wh i wW Wy TechDesc Fuel Input sroduced ateam turbines 2006 lt 300 MW Natural Gas 25 steam turbine 2022 lt 300 MW as 25 Combined cycle 2006 lt 3000 MW Gas 30 Combined cycle 2010 lt 3000 MW 30 Combined cycle 2022 lt 3000 MW 30 Coal power plant 2006 gt 500 MW 35 Coal power plant 2010 gt 500 MW 35 Coal power plant 2022 gt 500 MW 35 On shore wind power plant A 20 On shore wind power plant E 20 Ott shore power plant 20 Biomass power plant A 15 Biomass power plant B 20 Figure 4 9 Simplified characterisation of new Power Plant in Italy The problem for the analyst here is to integrate the information conveyed by inventories and in general environment statistics with the energy flows reported by the balances and the
279. udia Lehtila Goldstein that can be downloaded as TIMESDoc Intro pdf from the ETSAP website www iea etsap org TIMES an acronym for The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System is an economic model generator for local national or multi regional energy systems which provides a technology rich basis for estimating energy dynamics over a long term multi period time horizon It is usually applied to the analysis of the entire energy sector but may also applied to study in detail single sectors e g the electricity and district heat sector Reference case estimates of end use energy service demands e g car road travel residential lighting steam heat requirements in the paper industry etc are provided by the user for each region In addition the user provides estimates of the existing stock of energy related equipment in all sectors and the characteristics of available future technologies as well as present and future sources of primary energy supply and their potentials Using these as inputs the TIMES model aims to supply energy services at minimum global cost more accurately at minimum loss of surplus by simultaneously making equipment investment and operating primary energy supply and energy trade decisions by region For example if there is an increase in residential lighting energy service relative to the reference scenario perhaps due to a decline in the cost of residential lighting or due to a different assumption on GDP growth
280. ue commodity group SREFO05 O as follows Scenario Parameter Region Process Coemif TommGroun mys Ite iE 1990 2000 2010 2015 2o20 PM TPROCESSES JAcT_eFF 7 REG SREFOOS WIsReFo05 0 JaymuaL o 1 0753 1 0753 1 0753 1 0753 1 0753 Or as observed by Antti Lehtila we could define an ACT_FLO parameter instance as follows For the mathematically inclined If we initiate a model run such that the associated GAMS LST file contains an Equation Listing see section 2 6 1 and then once an optimal solution has been obtained click on the View LST button and use Wordpad s Find facility to find the first occurrence of EQE_ACTEFF that contains SREF005 we will find the following equation ROR ACTEFF REG 2000 2000 SREF005 SREF005 0 OUT ANNUAL 0 929973030782107 VAR_ACT REG 2000 2000 SREF005 ANNUAL VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF005 DSL ANNUAL VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREFOO5 GSL ANNUAL E 0 A simple rearrangement of this equation yields 0 929973030782107 VAR_ACT REG 2000 2000 SREF005 ANNUAL E VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREF005 DSL ANNUAL VAR_FLO REG 2000 2000 SREFO05 GSL ANNUAL Noting that 0 929973 is the reciprocal of 1 0753 which is the ACT_EFF conversion from output to input we see that the way that overall efficiency applies generalizes in this case is that 1 ACT_EFF SREF005 O VAR_ACT VAR FLO DSL VAR_FLO GSL Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 20
281. uitable for more principle consideration of base load peak load plants and calculating the total yearly energy production from each type of plant given their capacities 1200 7 1000 800 600 400 200 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Hours Figure 4 5 Duration curve for district heating production The balance between detail and dimension of the problem is problematic in this case While the dispatching problems require hour by hour analysis sometime even at shorter time intervals systems analysis for very long term problems slices the year into a few intervals by season weekday and hour in order to grasp the essential points of the problem 4 2 4 Components In this context there are two main components in the system commodities and technologies 4 2 4 1 Commodities All energy goods that flow in the system are included in this category This spans primary sources such as coal or crude oil through to final energy vectors such as gasoline heat or electricity All these goods are normally measured in energy units The category extends to include all energy services that the consumers need such as mobility measured in passengers kilometre space heat measured for instance in square meters per degree days or the materials that are produced using considerable amounts of energy such as steel cement or polyethylene 10 In the modelling practice 3 or 6 time slices allow a first order analy
282. ults Automatically checkbox automatic import of results from the file BASETINY ANT created by the GAMS run will be carried out After the results have been imported into ANSWER the following message box will appear Model Run and Automatic Import of Results R Finished GAMS run BASETINY Solve status Optimal GAMS run ended 30 records imported 6 Following the automatic import of results for Case Run BASETINY the Cases display will have a line for BASETINY whose icon is the Imported icon m and whose Status is Imported Also a line for BASETINY will be automatically added to the Selected Cases display so that its results can be immediately viewed with ANSWER s results facilities if desired Results Management Cases Selected Cases Name Description Created BASETINY TinyTIMESModel BASE 2012 06 05 22 43 Imported amp BASETINY TinyTIMESModel Base Scenari 2012 06 05 22 43 lt lt lt Im View LST View QC Delete Edit Results Results tab Sync Scen Database C AnswerlTIMESv6 Answer_Databases TinyTIMESModel mdb Edit Scenario BASE Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 46 2 4 3 Important Features of the Run Model Form For comprehensive details regarding all aspects of the Run Model form see Section 6 Running the Model in the ANSWERv6 TIMES User Manual Here we discuss the most important
283. unction Specification EJ TIMES Model Yarants and Objective Function Options for Case DISCRETE IHY are displayed in Edit mode Model Yarnants z Save Base Prices for Elastic Elastic Demand Reading No Elastic Demand Demand Base Prices l Climate No Damages in Objective Damages in Objective LP Damages in Objective NLP T Continuous Capacity Retirement Discrete Capacity Retirement No Capacity Retirement E Endogenous Technology Learning ETL c Policy Aun MACRO c Policy Aun Standard Mo MACRO MACRO Calibration MSA MACRO No Stochastic Tradeotf Stochastic Tradeoff Sensitivity Analysis o hog i Restart Fis Initial Periods Fl2BOH Fis Up To GDM File Browse Time Stepped Solve Time Step Overlap Objective Function Options OBJ Formulations Discounting AUTO STD MOD C ALT C LIN 0 Stat otear C Middle of Year End of ear Optimizer Model YVanant Description LP MIP pien Ok Cancel e Note also that when you click on the Discrete Capacity Investment checkbox the Optimizer textbox informs you that the Discrete Capacity Investment model variant involves MIP mixed integer programming and the Model Variant Description textbox is updated to contain Discretelnvest e Click on the OK button to return to the Run Model form that will now appear as follows with the textbox to the right of the eaa e ee button now containing Discretelnvest
284. unding the efficiencies of the whole chain of energy supply conversion distribution and end use processes The weakest link in the analysis of the efficiency of various energy chains is the determination of energy services and their quantification mostly due to the lack of data about end use services and actual patterns of their use In 1990 the global efficiency of converting primary energy sources to final energy forms including electricity was about 72 The efficiency of converting final energy forms into useful energy is lower with an estimated global average of 40 The resulting average global efficiency of converting primary energy to useful energy then is the product of the above two efficiencies or 29 Because detailed Statistics for most energy services do not exist and many rough estimates enter the efficiency calculations the overall efficiency of primary energy to services reported in the literature spans a wide range from 15 to 30 ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A5 ENERGY CARBON CONTENT Pi Eo 6 UGtC 3 9GtC MAGIC gi I0GEJ mal IE 4 yo oe 2 361 4 ET ee 12EJ z Useful 1036C 2735 Se i es 3G in ae SEES GGC WASTE AND REJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE ENERGY EMISSIONS Figure B 2 Major energy and carbon flows through the global energy system in 1990 EJ and Gt C billion tons or Pe C 1015 grams elemental carbon Carbon flows do not include biomass Sources
285. ut input commodities involved in the sum e Where the specification of relationships between output commodity flows and input commodity flows for the process allows flexibility in the flows it may be desirable to limit this flexibility by limiting the share that a commodity can have of its input output commodity group In the table below we endeavour to make the above sub tasks that are involved in specifying any TIMES Standard Process more concrete by identifying the TIMES Data Parameters that are involved and any creation of true commodity groups that may be needed In constructing the table we have been mindful that you might choose to specify the Processes in your TIMES model by entering appropriate data into an Excel spreadsheet and using the Import Model Data from Excel facility rather than by use of ANSWER TIMES New Process facility If you do use the New Process facility then there is the benefit that certain associated data parameters and the true commodity group that comprises the PCG if any will be automatically generated Noble Soft Systems Pty Ltd 2014 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual 91 Process Specification Sub Task TIMES Data Parameters that are involved true Commodity Groups that may be needed Specify input commodity commodities Specify TOP IN and TOP OUT parameters and output commodity commodities ANSWER TIMES New Process facility auto generates TOP IN and TOP OUT S
286. when working with TIMES Extensions Above we stated that on the Parameter tab the listview in the top half of the screen displays all the data parameters listed in alohabetical order of name This is true provided that the long combobox above the Parameters listview is Set to Meeeeeaettailiarserstteiet A But when working with a TIMES Extension it can be beneficial to subset the parameters that are displayed in the Parameters listview to just those parameters that are specific to that particular TIMES Extension For example suppose that you are working with the TIMES Discrete Capacity Investment Extension Then to subset the parameters that are displayed in the Parameters listview to just those parameters that are specific to this particular TIMES Extension Te Click on the Sets Filter button to the right of the long combobox to bring up a filter form Global TimeSlice Commodity CommGroup Process TradeProcess Constraint Stochastic Parameter Items Filter i Sets 2A Al1l Data Parameters D 2 On the Set Memberships Items Filter Data Parameters form select Discrete Investment Data Parameters MS Set Memberships Items Filter Data Parameters select a parentleat node from the Set Memberships tree Then select deselect sets in the Additional Characterization list Set Memberships Dats Parameter Fy Data Parameter Excl TIMES Extensions B Climate Data Parameter B Damage Data Paramet
287. with the day having the highest energy production and ends with the day having the lowest energy production In the duration curve it is possible to see how many days during the year the energy production was higher than 600 MW The more detailed the data used for the development of the duration curve the better and smoother the curve will be It is therefore not a good idea to simplify the duration curve with monthly average load data since this would result in a less useful duration curve The load curve includes more information than the duration curve since it contains the information regarding at what point during the year a specific load level occurs This information is lost when the load curve is transformed into a duration curve If for example both heating and cooling demands in an analysed energy system are known and if they are in some way interconnected then the load This figure as well as the other two in this paragraph are taken from the ALEP Guide Book www etsap org ETSAP 2013 ANSWER TIMES Getting Started Manual A12 curve will show that the peak level of heating occurs in January whereas the peak load of cooling occurs in July i e never peaking during the same season Such information is impossible to extract from a duration curve The load curve is typically used in order to calculate which production plants should be operating to cover the district heating load day by day The duration curve is s
288. y services availability governments of countries without sufficient energy resources are concerned about security of supply from exporting countries The twin goal is to ensure that the country does not consume too many economic resources in the purchase of energy resources affordability in order to have enough economic resources to ensure the economic development The alternative goal is to ensure that 19 In the traditional general equilibrium models technologies as a group are represented by production functions In technical economic models each technological group is explicitly characterised by parameters such as year of first availability e g hydrogen technologies energy efficiency capacity factors costs emissions etc 20 In the literature the phenomenon of technical improvement on which actually all economic growth depends is called technology learning In this context it is not necessary to distinguish among different types of learning due to R amp D or market forces or alternative ways of representing the phenomenon in a model exogenous of endogenous ETL it all ends up in different assumptions on characterization parameters some additional equations and more complexity For example the TIMES models constructed for the NEEDS New Energy Externalities for Developments in Externalities and EFDA European Fusion Development Agreement used the GEM E3 General equilibrium Model for Economy Energy and Environment general
289. zion version TIME Sve hax Item Length 16 TIMES v6 Mas Iter Length 24 Other Data Time Periods Results Time Periods f Unequal pacing Equal spacing Unequal pacing Equal spacing Periods in Database Periods in Database gt Add Selected Add Selected Periods to Results Periods to Data W Create Initial Region JY Same TimeSlices in Every Region On subsequent occasions the settings will be taken from your previous use of the File New Database facility 3 Accept the default setting of Template Version ERC ERALA so that the maximum Item Name length will be 16 characters in the new ANSWER database which will be created 4 Accept the default setting of 12 chats So that the maximum Scenario and Case Name length will be 12 characters in the new ANSWER database which will be created 5 Enter TinyTIMESModel in the Description textbox This Description will be used as the Description for the BASE scenario and also as the default filename for the ANSWER database that is created See further discussion at step 13 below 6 Specify 2005 2010 2015 and 2020 as the Data Time Periods by multi selecting 2005 2010 2015 and 2020 in left hand listbox in the Data Time Periods frame and then click on the gt button to cause the selected Time Periods to appear in the right hand Periods in Database listbox 7 Similarly specify 2005 2010 2015 and 2020 as the Results Time Periods using the left ha

ANSWER-TIMES Getting Started Manual (version 1.1) - iea

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