January 2009 Number 52
Contents
1. 3 1 71 2 46 Hall Total 2 3 1 82 2 97 BRIS Late 2 3 2 24 2 97 2 3 average of best 2 out of the last 3 races Total Hall Early Pace Hall Speed Late BRIS Final Fraction BRIS Speed The Hall pace and speed figures are very unique and they are exclusive to ALL Ways software The Hall figures use the concept of Conservation of Energy to normalize all of a horse s past performances to what the pace and speed figures would be in today s race at the exact distance and surface of today s race The Hall figures have proven to be very effective for analyzing how well a horse will be able to handle the all weather surface and tend to yield good 2 ROI win wager profits At first glance the Hall Total Early Pace Speed and BRIS Late Final Fraction Speed would seem to be at odds with each other However this is very helpful information It tells us that a good way to approach these races is using the Best Early Best Late strategy when formulating our wagers See NL 18 Oak Tree Santa Anita Maiden Sprints on the New Pro Ride Surface Finally let s take a look at maiden sprints run on the all weather surface We are not looking at running styles simply because the first time starters in these maiden races do not allow for meaningful running style information Here are the best handicapping factors Best Handicapping Factors for AWS Dirt Maiden Sprints at Oak Tree Santa Anita Factor IV 2 ROI BRIS Wet Total 3 34 2 85 BRIS2. Class 2 42 1 40 BRIS Speed Last 2 77 2 11 BRIS Total 2 3 3 63 2 68 Hall Late 2 3 3 02 2 15 BRIS Prime Power 3 34 2 06 2 3 average of best 2 out of the last 3 races Total BRIS Early Pace BRIS Speed Late Hall Final Fraction Hall Speed Wet Weighted moving average a measure of a horse s current form A reminder ALL Ways software handicaps first time starters using workout trainer jockey and pedigree information and integrate this with all the horses in the race creating an integrated odds line It is always wise to look at any first time starters ALL Ways designates as contenders They often do well at big prices Notice once again that the Best Early Best Late approach is in play based on the BRIS Total and Hall Late figures Summary We believe understanding and using the pace and handicapping factor information in this article will give you a significant edge when handicapping Pro Ride surface races during the 2009 Santa Anita meet Turf to Synthetic Surface Advantage Fact or Fiction As more tracks have switched to synthetic racing surfaces we have begun to hear the theory that horses that do well in turf races have an advantage when competing on the new synthetic surfaces In the Breeders Cup recap article earlier in this newsletter we saw that half of the in the money finishers in the Breeders Cup AWS races were horses with some turf success in their backgrounds We also saw that two thirds of the top three fin
3. partner in ALL Ways Software ALL Ways includes a large toolbox of powerful handicapping tools including extensive information that is not available from any other source ALL Ways also includes a large toolbox of analytical tools including the Impact Value Analysis Top 3 Analysis Gap Analysis and the powerful Angle Assistant These powerful handicapping and analysis tools and unique information provide the ALL Ways user with a significant edge over their competition specifically the other horseplayers playing the same races For a more thorough description of ALL Ways we suggest reading the brief paper titled How ALL Ways Works that is posted on the ALL Ways Free Software Page on the BRIS Website Some new ALL Ways handicappers prefer to aggressively jump in and learn all about ALL Ways in rapid fashion This is certainly a valid approach Many other new ALL Ways handicappers prefer to follow the built in Multi Level design of ALL Ways moving up through the logical progression from Level ONE up to Level FOUR at their own pace We refer to this process as From novice to expert at a reasonable pace Here is how to get started 1 Download and install ALL Ways Software from the ALL Ways Free Software Page on the BRIS Web site The comprehensive ALL Ways User Manual is also available there although we recommend calling BRIS at 800 354 9206 and having them mail a printed copy of the manual in a 3 ring binder for a nominal S amp H charge 2
4. 5 12 15 Turf 2 5 45 45 10 15 E and EP horses did somewhat better in the under card races than in the actual Breeders Cup races But P and S horses still took 9 of the 15 win place and show positions and not shown they also took 4 of the 5 fourth place finishes as well The other data is very similar to that of the actual Breeders Cup races except that horses with evidence of some good turf performance s in their background took 67 10 of 15 of the in the money finishes up from 50 in the actual BC races Any Conclusions You cannot really draw firm conclusions from the results of just the 13 all weather surface races run during the two day Breeders Cup With that said these races all played out in a manner that supports the contention particularly for high caliber races that the old heavily early speed favoring dirt track of Santa Anita has changed to an all weather surface that is far more kind to closers These races played out pretty much as predicted in the ALL Ways Newsletter for October 2008 This will come in handy when its time to handicap the 2009 Breeders Cup also at Oak Tree Santa Anita And in the article that follows we are going to look at AWS dirt races run during the entire Oak Tree fall meet Handicapping All Weather Surface Races From Oak Tree to Santa Anita A new Pro Ride synthetic racing surface was installed at Santa Anita in time for the full 2008 Oak Tree Meet including the 2008 Breeders Cup We
5. After installing the software print and read the brief papers that are in the ALL Ways Program Group titled How ALL Ways Works and Quick Start Guide the latter includes a practice handicapping session 3 Then read Chapter One in the User Manual and follow the directions in Chapter 2 You will be referred to other parts of the User Manual if more information is desired Related ALL Ways Newsletters All ALL Ways Newsletters as well as a Major Topic Index are posted on both the Frandsen Publishing and BRIS Web sites and they are absolutely free Article NL Pace Handicapping Race Pace Shapes 3 Best Early Best Late 18 Quirin Speed Points 13 Hall Pace and Speed Figures 16 Impact Values vs Percentages 32 ALL Ways Multi Level Software 1 Getting started with the Basics 44 2 Unleashing ALL Ways Databases 45 3 Analysis and Control 46 4 The Ultimate Handicapping Tools 47 For ALL Ways Handicappers Only Windows Vista There was a small glitch in the Vista operating system that would allow a printed character to be in bold type but not underlined Microsoft has solved the problem in Vista Service Pack 1 Here are the simple steps to follow to install the Vista update 1 Go to www microsoft com 2 Click on SUPPORT to drop down a list 3 In the Product Support group select Windows Vista Solution Center 4 Under Update Vista select Download Service Pack 1 and follow the directions Batch Download Files Durin
6. January 2009 Number 52 ALL Ways NEWSLETTER Inside This Newsletter 2008 Breeders Cup Follow up Handicapping All Weather Surface Races from Oak Tree to Santa Anita Turf to Synthetic Surface Advantage Fact or Fiction Guest Article Aqueduct Inner Dirt Tract Winter A Good Time to Get Started with ALL Ways For ALL Ways Handicappers Only e Windows Vista e Batch Download Files Announcements Windows Vista Just to confirm ALL Ways Software is 100 compatible with the Windows Vista operating system Also Microsoft has fixed the bug in Windows Vista that was preventing the underlining of printed characters and words See the last page of this newsletter for more information ALL Ways Batch Download Data Files ALL Ways Batch Download data files will be available in February providing a simple and very economical way to build instant large ALL Ways Databases for most North American tracks See the last page of this newsletter for more information A Chain Reaction We started preparing for this issue of the quarterly ALL Ways Newsletter by taking a look back at the 2008 Breeders Cup races run during the Oak Tree Meet at Santa Anita this past October Our focus was on the races run on the new Pro Ride synthetic racing surface Some revelations came out of this analysis that started a chain reaction of sorts More specifically besides the actual Breeders Cup races we went on to analyze the all weather surface under
7. card races as well This caused us to then look at the full 2008 Oak Tree Meet Then because of some things we spotted we went on to look at all tracks with synthetic racing surfaces to see if we could support or shoot down the anecdotal concept that horses with some turf racing success in their backgrounds have an advantage when switching to an all weather synthetic surface We decided to share all of this with our readers 2008 Breeder s Cup Follow up There are two solid reasons to cover this subject now First just like the 2008 edition the 2009 Breeders Cup will also be run during the Oak Tree Meet at Santa Anita Whatever we can learn from the 2008 Breeders Cup should help us handicap the 2009 BC races as well The second reason to cover this subject now is to provide some insights that will help handicap the races during the 2009 Santa Anita meet which started in late December and will go on into April 2009 We start now by looking at the eight Breeders Cup races that were run on the new Pro Ride synthetic surface at Santa Anita Going into the Breeders Cup we expected closers P and S horses to do particularly well on the all weather surface We also suspected foreign horses would to do well primarily because they usually have good turf performances in their backgrounds At least on an anecdotal basis good turf runners were believed to have an advantage when moving to a synthetic surface The following are the specific questi
8. ce advantage theory it certainly does support it This coupled with the one in five race occurrence of a 4 rating makes this a candidate for a good spot play angle when playing all weather surface races at these tracks You would certainly not want to ignore these horses in your Exacta Trifecta or Superfecta wagers or your multi race wagers as well Guest Article Aqueduct Inner Dirt Track As a user since 1997 I just wanted to let you know how unbelievable ALL Ways software has been at Aqueduct Inner With over 2 100 races in my database the Pace Line Report has been super I have had numerous triple digit Exactas the first two weeks of the meet and price horses ranging from 20 00 to 80 00 I suggest users concentrate on the Pace Line Report and use horses with high Combined Ratings and high First and Second Call Ratings These are from the Hall section Also an ALL Ways Race Pace Shape of EP EP will produce the winner with an EP running style In Lone Early races any E horse is a must use Pay attention to inside post positions as this helps move up the rating of horses in particular those with any tactical speed I have found that these Aqueduct Inner Track races produce the best value in New York along with Saratoga Perhaps you can share this in your Newsletter Anyway have a Merry Christmas Al Franzone Winter A Good Time to Get Started with ALL Ways Serious horseplayers who are analytical and investigative have found a powerful
9. g which is measured from the gate to the 2nd Call BRIS Early Pace Rating Rank 1 2 3 IV 84 1 57 1 65 2 ROI 0 96 2 25 3 40 This shows that horses with the fastest pace rating at the 2nd Call won less than their fair share of races 0 84 and had you wagered on each one you would have lost 1 04 for every 2 wagered E horses would normally have the highest Early Pace Rating But now look at the 2nd and 3rd ranked horses They won more than their fair share of races and returned nice profits for 2 win wagers Our theory is that early running E horses that by definition need the lead often burn themselves out on the new synthetic surface On the other hand EP horses by definition are able to rate behind a fast running leader at the 2nd Call and are thus still able to have a good stretch run Now here are the overall best handicapping factors for these non maiden AWS sprints Best Handicapping Factors for AWS Dirt Non Maiden Sprints at Oak Tree Santa Anita Factor IV 2ROI BRIS Class 1 83 1 65 Scott PCR 1 55 2 15 BRIS Speed P L 2 28 3 58 BRIS Combined P L 2 13 3 46 BRIS Late P L 2 30 2 26 Comprehensive 2 29 1 92 PCR Scott Performance Class Rating P L Pace Line Race Combined Early Pace Final Fraction Late Final Fraction Speed A pace line race is the single race in the horse s past performances that best matches today s race ALL Ways software uses a sophisticated approach to selecting the pace li
10. g 2008 BRIS and Frandsen Publishing offered special ALL Ways Batch Download files for tracks running on synthetic racing surfaces These files included large numbers of ALL Ways Data Files and matching Exotic Results Data Files for past race cards at these individual tracks After downloading a Batch Download file ALL Ways can automatically unzip all the batch files and automatically process all the ALL Ways Data Files and automatically process all the results files Starting sometime in February 2009 BRIS and Frandsen Publishing will offer similar ALL Ways Batch Download files for past races at most tracks in North America The reduced prices for these files will make it very easy very fast and very economical to instantly build large ALL Ways Race Database s for your favorite track s Copyright 2009 Frandsen Publishing Corporation PO Box 1439 Minnetonka MN 55345 All Rights Reserved How to contact Frandsen Publishing Phone 952 937 9180 E Mail FrandsenPublishing Comcast net Website www frandsen com Be sure to check the What s New page on our Website for the latest announcements and alerts
11. ishers in the five under card AWS races also had good turf experience In view of all of this we decided to use the ALL Ways Impact Value Analysis to further analyze dirt races run at nine North American tracks with synthetic racing surfaces We analyzed 3 325 non maiden AWS races The obvious first thing we looked at was the BRIS Turf Class Rating provided for many of the horses in these races Two things stood out One is that the top ranked Turf Class horses in these races had positive Impact Values at all nine tracks The typical Impact Values were in the 1 30 to 1 50 range The best IVs were for Del Mar AWS sprints 1 60 Woodbine AWS routes 1 98 and Keeneland AWS routes 2 39 These high IVs also yielded solid profits as well This would seem to indicate the favorable turf to AWS theory was valid However the second thing that stood out was that the BRIS True Class Rating which does not include turf races when today s race is on an AWS dirt surface actually yielded generally higher IVs at most of the nine tracks This would seem to indicate that the top rated turf horses were simply good horses and could be expected to win at a decent clip We do not believe these Turf Class results necessarily supported the theory But we looked further The next thing we did was to look at a special type of rating in ALL Ways software named Effort This rating is done individually for each horse s past performances on dirt on turf and on muddy trac
12. ks For example for the Turf Effort Rating ALL Ways looks at the horse s turf race performances and assigns an overall rating of 4 3 2 1 or 0 zero with four being the best A rating of 4 is only given to horses with a turf win Any good race on the turf will give the horse a minimum 1 rating Looking at the Turf Effort Ratings and the Dirt Effort Ratings lets us directly compare the value of turf versus dirt past performances leading into today s all weather surface race The charts below show the results of this analysis The specific synthetic track material is also shown for all the tracks All Weather Surface Dirt Sprints Track Impact Values 2 ROI 4 Dirt 4 Turf 4 Dirt 4 Turf Effort Effort Effort Effort DMR 1 55 1 57 2 26 3 39 APX 1 37 1 99 1 95 2 72 KEE 1 24 1 69 1 37 2 64 WOX 1 51 1 68 2 05 2 01 TPX 1 57 0 61 1 23 0 85 HOL 1 56 2 65 1 67 4 38 GGX 1 63 1 64 1 85 1 75 PID 1 59 2 27 1 36 1 91 OSA 1 46 2 21 1 62 1 86 All Weather Surface Dirt Routes Track Impact Values 2 ROI 4 Dirt 4 Turf 4 Dirt 4 Turf Effort Effort Effort Effort DMR 0 97 1 70 1 21 2 42 APX 1 35 1 83 1 91 2 60 KEE 0 94 2 12 1 33 2 56 WOX 1 18 1 51 1 06 2 24 TPX 0 97 1 55 1 30 2 59 HOL 1 24 1 20 1 38 1 35 GGX 1 26 1 84 1 31 2 35 PID 1 28 1 86 0 99 2 03 OSA 1 26 0 92 1 27 1 60 PolyTrack Del Mar Arlington Keeneland Woodbine Turfway Cushion Track Hollywood Tapeta Footings G
13. n running styles and the missing data for two win positions and one place position The horse running style figures are very enlightening Not a single race was won by an Early E horse or an Early Presser EP horse In fact only five such horses finished in the money in all eight races In contrast 16 of the 21 known running styles for the in the money horses were mid pack Pressers P or come from behind Sustainer S horses Note that these figures are based on the running styles assigned by ALL Ways Software using a special proprietary method Horses designated by ALL Ways as the Best Late runners took 16 of the 21 in the money positions 76 Horses designated by ALL Ways as good Key Horse Candidates took 15 of the 21 in the money positions 71 and 19 of the 21 in the money horses were in the ALL Ways Top 10 Speed Performances list a whopping 90 Finally half of the 24 top 3 finishers including the three foreign horses had good turf performances in their background We know this resulted in solid Impact Values for good turf horses but the sample is too small to form firm conclusions We will cover more on this subject later Now let s look at the five all weather surface under card races run on 2008 Breeders Cup Friday and Saturday The Five Under Card All Weather Surface Races Running Win Place Show Total Style E 1 1 0 2 EP 1 1 2 4 P 1 3 2 6 S 2 0 1 3 Late 3 55 5 5 45 12 15 Key 55 45 3 5 12 15 Top10 4 5 45 4
14. ne race for a horse that includes giving priority to other races run on an all weather surface This method has proven to be very powerful for handicapping AWS races Oak Tree Santa Anita Non Maiden Routes on the New Pro Ride Surface Here are the IVs for the four basic horse running styles in non maiden AWS routes Winner Running Style Impact Values E EP p s 1 43 1 01 70 1 09 We see that the AWS routes were much kinder to Early E runners This may be explained by the fact that there are fewer suicidal pace races in routes and in fact the pace in routes simply tends to be slower than that in sprints This makes it easier for E horses to hang on down the stretch It is not shown here but when we look at Quirin Speed Points for AWS routes which is a measure of a horse s propensity to be on the lead at the Ist Call we see that horses ranked first win only 1 05 their fair share of races and generate a loss of 90 cents for a 2 flat win wager The 2nd ranked horse for Quirin Speed Points win 1 47 times their fair share of races and yield a flat bet profit of 1 35 for each 2 wagered This tells us that horses that run fast right out of the gate are at a disadvantage on the all weather surface Now here are the best handicapping factors Best Handicapping Factors for AWS Dirt Non Maiden Routes at Oak Tree Santa Anita Factor IV 2ROI BRIS Class 2 04 1 49 BRIS Speed 2 3 1 92 1 65 Hall Speed P L 2 65 2 52 Hall Early Pace 2
15. olden Gate Presque Isle Downs Pro Ride Oak Tree Santa Anita Here is how to read these charts Looking at Arlington Park AWS sprints we see that horses with a Dirt Effort rating of 4 have an IV of 1 37 indicating they win 1 37 times their fair share of races A 2 flat win bet on all these horses returned 1 95 for a small loss Horses with a Turf Effort rating of 4 have an IV of 1 99 and returned 2 72 for every 2 wagered Note also that the signs are very positive indicating solid Impact Values and good 2 ROI figures for horses with a 3 or 2 rating Using Arlington again here are the IVs and ROIs for the top Turf Effort ratings APX Turf Effort Rating Rating 4 3 2 Impact Value 1 99 1 70 1 55 2 ROI 2 72 2 32 2 46 Note that when we looked at the 4 and 3 and 2 Turf Effort Ratings for all nine tracks and both sprints and routes a whopping 50 of the 54 Impact Values were very positive Other observations The Turf Effort IVs were better generally substantially better than their counterparts for Dirt Effort in every case except AWS sprints at TPX and AWS routes at HOL and OSA Also two thirds of the Turf Effort 2 ROIs were positive while only two dirt 2 ROIs were positive Finally there were 648 horses with a 4 rating in the 3 325 races which is approximately one in every 5 races Of course there are even more horses with a Turf Effort Rating of 3 or 2 Summary While this analysis may not prove the turf to all weather surfa
16. ons we asked regarding the top three finishers in each all weather surface race Which running style s did the best e How many of the top finishers were designated by ALL Ways software as one of the top tier of Best Late horses The ALL Ways Late Rating is a compound rating that is the sum of the horse s Speed rating plus Final Fraction pace rating e How many of the top finishers were designated by ALL Ways as one of the four best Key Horse Candidates e How many of the top finishers were included in the ALL Ways Top 10 Speed Performances list These Top 10 performances are determined by looking at the final speed figures for every horse s last five races and picking out the best ten performances A horse often has multiple positions in the Top 10 list e How many of the top finishers had some type of good performance in turf races e How well did foreign horses perform Here in chart form is what we learned when examining the eight all weather surfaces races that were part of the Breeders Cup The Eight Breeders Cup All Weather Surface Races Running Win Place Show Total Style E 0 1 1 2 EP 0 2 1 3 P 4 1 4 9 S 2 3 2 7 Unknown 2 1 0 3 Late 5 6 5 7 6 8 16 21 Key 6 6 57 4 8 15 21 Top10 5 6 7 7 7 8 19 21 Turf 48 6 8 2 8 12 24 Note Foreign horses without a race in North America won two races and placed in another There was no information about these horses other than BRIS Class figures This explains the three unknow
17. used the ALL Ways Impact Value Analysis feature to automatically determine the best and most profitable handicapping factors during the Oak Tree Meet that should carry over well into the 2009 Santa Anita meet Specifically we looked at the 53 non maiden sprints 52 non maiden routes and 52 maiden sprints run on the new all weather surface Reminder An Impact Value IV greater than 1 0 means that qualifying horses win more than their fair share of races An IV below 1 0 means the horses win less than their fair share of races A 2 ROI return on investment above 2 represents a profit while a number under 2 is a loss We are now going to look at the results of these analyses including some focus on the pace implications of these races Oak Tree Santa Anita Non Maiden Sprints on the New Pro Ride Surface First here are the IVs for the four basic horse running styles Winner Running Style Impact Values E EP p en 60 1 30 1 26 65 We can see that the track was still unfavorable to the Early E horses as it was for the Breeders Cup races but Early Pressers EP fared much better This is to be expected for normal level races as opposed to the high caliber BC races One very interesting thing to note is that there were 97 EP horses in these 53 races Had you wagered 2 to win on every one of the 97 EP horses you would have achieved a net profit of 1 18 for every 2 wagered Wow Here are the IVs are for the BRIS Early Pace Ratin
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