WestPro Plus Manual - Russell Labs Site Hosting
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1. A z 10 E Arial zio Sib G H J K L M N Q RI S T U T Input Data File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 mi Douglas fir DBH class Initial state trees ac 186 142 101 74 51 37 24 17 11 07 05 6 Targetstate trees ac 40 34 28 11 0 9 Other Shade intolerant Species DBH class in 4 6 Initial state trees ac 17 7 132 Target state trees ac 3 5 2 9 Western hemlock DBH class in Initial state trees ac 128 02 01 0 1 101 6 99 40 2 5 14 08 04 0 2 01 6 4j 0 1 00 0 0 5 15 Other Shade tolerant Species 16 DBH class in 4 6 6 17 Iitialstate trees ac 118 75 43 29 18 11 08 06 04 03 02 041 01 01 00 OO OO OO 01 Target state trees ac 19 16 13 11 09 08 06 05 04 04 03 03 02 02 01 01 01 01 01 Year of first harvest 1 Length of cutting cycle 10 yr 22 Length of simulation 200 yr 23 Re entry Cost 254 ac 24 Site Productivity 150 25 Site Index 90 ft 26 Interest Rate 3 80 percent 27 28 Initial Timber Prices 5 6 Log Grade Peeler 3D Douglas fir 92 1 Sawmill Other Shade intoleran 6 6 2 Sawmill Western hemlock 3 3 3 Sawmill Other Shade tolerant 7 8 Other i 4 Y WN Input Data Skesti Shest2 Sheets Is Ready NUM Figure 6 Input Data worksheet for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diam2. Running Simulations After completing the input data worksheet or retrieving a previously saved one you are ready to run a simulation To run WestProPlus make sure that the WestProPlus menu is in the Excel menu bar If not click WestProPlus under the Tools menu to activate WestProPlus You can then run the simulation by choosing Run in the WestProPlus menu Each WestProPlus simulation generates the following worksheets and charts A TreesPerAcre worksheet The number of trees by species and diameter class for each simulated year A Basal Area worksheet The basal area by species and timber size for each simulated year A Volume worksheet The volume in stock by log grade for each simulated year A Products worksheet The physical output and the financial return from the harvests throughout the simulation A Diversity worksheet Shannon s species diversity indices and size diversity indices for each year of the simulation A Diversity chart A plot of Shannon s indices of species and size diversity over time A Species BA chart A stacked area chart showing the development of stand basal area by species group over time A Size BA chart A stacked area chart showing the development of stand basal area by timber size over time A Volume chart A stacked area chart showing the development of volume in stock by log grade over time To compare various management regimes save the output worksheets immediately after running a si
3. Azuma D L Hiserote B A 2002 Site index equations and mean annual increment equations for the Pacific Northwest Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis 1985 2001 Res Note PNW RN 533 Portland OR U S Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station 24 p Hansen A J Spies T A Swanson F J Ohmann J L 1991 Conserving biodiversity in managed forests lessons from natural forests BioScience 41 6 382 292 Hiserote B Waddell K 2003 The PNW FIA integrated database user guide A database of forest inventory information for California Oregon and Washington V 1 3 PNW Station Portland Oregon 10 p Liang J Buongiorno J Monserud R A 2005a Growth and yield of all aged Douglas fir western hemlock forest stands a matrix model with stand diversity effects Can J For Res 35 10 2369 2382 Liang J Buongiorno J Monserud R A 2005b Bootstrap simulation and response surface optimization of management regimes for Douglas fir western hemlock stands For Sci In review Liang J Buongiorno J Monserud R A 2004a CalPro A spreadsheet program for the management of California mixed conifer stands USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station General Technical Report PNW GTR 619 32p 33 Liang J Buongiorno J Kolbe A Schulte B 2004b NorthPro a spreadsheet program for the management of uneven aged northern hardwood stands
4. WestProPlus helps predict the development of Douglas fir western hemlock stands with various types of silviculture Some of the examples in this manual suggest that effective uneven aged management of Douglas fir western hemlock forests can be profitable while maintaining stands with high diversity of tree species and size How Does WestProPlus Work WestProPlus predictions are based on a stochastic version of a multispecies site and density dependent matrix growth model Liang et al 2005a App 2 coupled with log grade model App 3 stochastic stumpage price and interest rate models App 4 To run WestProPlus you specify an initial stand state define a management policy by target stand state and cutting cycle The program predicts economic and ecological effects of the policy with a sequence of random numbers to simulate stochastic shocks in stand growth timber prices and interest rates As you change policy WestProPlus repeats the same sequence of random numbers to simulate stochastic stand growth timber prices and interest rates Using the same string of random numbers facilitates comparison of management policies A new string of random numbers may also be generated by quitting WestProPlus and loading it again see section 2 What Is in This Manual The next section explains how to install WestProPlus on your computer and provides a description of the input data as well as instructions for loading and saving these dat
5. diameter classes and a minimum of zero when all trees are the same diameter class 50 Glossary BA chart A WestProPlus generated chart showing for a selected range of years the per acre basal area of softwoods hardwoods and the whole stand BDq distribution A tree distribution by diameter class defined by a stand basal area B a maximum and minimum tree diameter D and a q ratio q the ratio of the number of trees in a given diameter class to the number of trees in the next larger class bootstrap method When used in stochastic simulations this technique simulates random variables by sampling randomly with replacement from actual observations of the variable rather than from an assumed distribution See Efron and Tibshirani 1994 for the details cutting cycle The number of years between successive harvests For two cut silvicultural systems this is the number of years between the two harvests diameter class One of 19 2 in diameter at breast height DBH categories used by WestProPlus to classify trees by size Diameter classes range from 4 to 40 inches with each class denoted by its midpoint diameter Diameter class 4 is for trees with diameters from 3 to less than 5 inches The 40 inch class is for all trees 39 inches in diameter and larger Diversity chart A WestProPlus generated chart showing changes in the Shannon index of species or size diversity over a selected range of years initial stand state
6. Other shade intolerant species Including Alnus rubra Pinus ponderosa Pinus contorta etc Western hemlock 75uga heterophylla Other shade tolerant species Including Thuja plicata Acer macrophyllum Abies grandis etc stumpage prices Prices paid to a landowner for standing timber target stand state The desired number of live trees per acre in each species group and diameter class after a harvest total net present value The sum of all discounted revenues minus the sum of all discounted costs workbook The workbook is the normal document or file type in Microsoft Excel A workbook is the electronic equivalent of a three ring binder Inside workbooks you will find sheets such as worksheets and chart sheets worksheet Most of the work you do in Excel will be on a worksheet A worksheet is a grid of rows and columns Each cell is the intersection of a row and a column and has a unique address or reference 52
7. The number of live trees per acre by species and size at the start of a simulation input data worksheet A worksheet to enter the data for running a WestProPlus simulation Log grade An estimate of the type and quality of lumber recovered when the log 15 sawed Microsoft Excel add in A command function or software program that runs within Microsoft Excel and adds special capabilities WestProPlus 15 an add in net present value NPV The net revenue discounted to the present preharvest stand state The number of live trees per acre by species and size immediately before a harvest Products worksheet A WestProPlus output worksheet that shows for each harvest the basal area cut the volume of poles and sawtimber removed by species group the gross income generated and the net present value of the harvest as well as the total net present value of the stand and its mean annual production in terms of basal area cut and volumes harvested on a per acre basis pole size trees Trees suitable for the production of poletimber but too small to produce saw logs In WestProPlus these include trees from 5 to less than 11 inches re entry costs Costs per acre associated with each harvest that are not reflected in the stumpage prices These may include e g the added expense of marking the stand for single tree selection or controlling hardwood competition 51 sawtimber Trees suitable for the production of saw logs
8. ac productivity ft ac yr average stand diversity of tree species and size average basal area and average percent of peeler logs from the products worksheet fig 10 3 Keep the three input data worksheets active on the desktop and quit WestProPlus see section 2 4 Reload WestProPlus see section 2 and go to step 2 to start a new replication WestProPlus did three simulations in step 2 for the three regimes with the same string of random numbers to compare the regimes efficiently while steps 3 and 4 generate a new string of random numbers for another replication An example of ten replications is in table 1 There was a strong positive effect of q ratio on the productivity fig 16 because more large trees were cut with higher q ratios As smaller trees were left on the stand higher q ratio leads to significantly lower percentage of peelers and lower tree size diversity Here we have detected little or no effect of q ratio on the other criteria with only ten replications More replications with more initial states suggest that as the q ratio increases NPV increases species diversity decreases and basal area increases Liang et al 2005b 26 Table 1 Simulation results of the three BDq selection regimes with different q ratios NPV Productivity ft ac yr Replication q 1 2 q 1 4 q 1 8 q 1 2 q 1 4 q 1 8 1 14133 19443 32168 69 25 83 12 117 18 2 10375 12551 21600 80 55 99 61 141 09 3 9572 1
9. select Add ins Deselect WestProPlus to remove the title from the add ins list 3 Close the Excel window 3 Using WestProPlus WestProPlus Input The input data worksheet fig 1 contains all the information needed by the program Cells with question marks require numeric entries except that initial timber prices are optional WestProPlus converts numeric entries to one or two decimal places Before running a simulation WestProPlus checks all your entries and will prompt you to fix any improper input data In figure 1 the four rows labeled initial state contain the initial number of trees per acre in the stand at time zero by species groups and by 2 in diameter classes WestProPlus recognizes four species groups Douglas fir other shade intolerant species western hemlock and other shade tolerant species App 1 table 3 The four rows labeled target state contain the number of trees per acre that should remain after harvest by species group and diameter class A target entry of zero instructs WestProPlus to harvest all trees in that category When the number of trees in the stand exceeds the target value the harvest is the difference between the available trees and the target otherwise the harvest is zero You can avoid harvesting in any species group and size class by entering a very high target e g 10 000 You can enter the initial and target states by hand or with the BDq calculator described below WestProPlus
10. 0 00160 0 3252H 0 4192H m 1 5188 0 02360 0 0002D 0 00108 0 00210 0 2721H 0 3528H 4 10 5 s 5 The probability that a tree stays alive and in the same size class from 7 to t 1 is then aj l bi mi 43 The expected single tree volume v ft is a species dependent function of tree and stand characteristics v 0 01712 0 000130 0 000010 v 0 01536 0 000040 0 000000 v 0 01294 0 000160 0 000010 v 0 00392 0 00019D 0 000000 0 001618 0 011740 0 00350H 0 000929 0 000548 0 006910 0 000387 0 001005 0 000878 0 004160 0 001855 0 001455 0 001058 0 005840 0 006921 0 000355 44 Appendix 3 Log Grade Equations The equation to predict log grade were calibrated with data from 3 378 logs in the USFS Product Recovery Database Stevens and Barbour 2000 The logs are classified into five grade categories according to their diameter branch size growth rate and minimum length Barbour and Parry 2001 Northwest Log Rules Advisory Group 1998 For WestProPlus the logs were divided into the four species groups recognized by the growth model App 2 In addition to the log grade the diameter of the logs was known for all species groups The database also contains information on the stands from which the logs were taken However for Douglas fir and western hemlock only the tree diameter D in and the site index 5 ft influenced log grade significantly Liang et al 2005b The log grade was predicted with a l
11. 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 to Input Data worksheet as Douglas fir Other shade intolerant species Western hemlock Other shade tolerant species 1 j C Initial Distribution C Initial Distribution C Initial Distribution Copy C Target Distribution C Target Distribution C Target Distribution C Target Distribution Figure 2 The BDq Distribution Calculator window The example in figure 2 shows the number of trees by diameter class that would give a basal area of 120 ft ac with trees of diameters from 3 to 33 inches and a q ratio of 1 3 for the Douglas fir trees in the initial stand state You can copy the resulting stand distribution to the input data worksheet as the initial distribution or as the target distribution for a species group by selecting the destination and clicking the Copy button on the BDq calculator fig 2 Storing Data and Retrieving Stored Data After entering data in the Input Data worksheet you can save this worksheet for later use You should save your work frequently to avoid losing data It is advisable to save the work in a particular folder to facilitate locating the file in the future To run several simulations e g to examine the effects of changing some of the parameters you may find it efficient to work with previously saved input data To retrieve the data choose the File Open command in Excel to open your saved file or double click on the file icon
12. 9 0 21400 445 4 242 8 825 1 617 4 1 14450 327 5 181 7 678 3 249 7 89 2 15059 349 2 186 8 712 1 248 5 9 2 3 1491 5 368 3 182 5 738 0 193 2 94 4 15993 395 7 187 8 769 6 236 3 98 5 16396 417 8 196 5 825 2 180 1 10 1 6 17057 438 7 204 1 867 6 184 6 10 8 7 18903 5087 218 0 951 0 202 0 10 5 8 19644 534 8 225 8 984 4 208 3 9 2016 3 562 0 230 3 1000 2 212 8 11 1 10 19219 508 5 236 1 963 4 202 1 11 8 11 17321 4855 2061 8621 169 2 23 12 17534 502 0 213 1 879 1 149 1 10 1 13 18485 519 5 230 4 905 5 180 8 12 1 14 20023 547 4 248 3 996 5 196 2 14 0 15 2057 9 562 9 256 2 987 7 237 2 13 8 16 210141 591 9 2665 10150 213 7 14 1 T 21870 628 0 2752 1051 3 218 7 13 9 18 22212 639 8 279 9 1071 0 216 8 13 6 19 23344 674 8 2835 11196 231 9 14 6 20 24693 707 3 309 9 11628 275 9 13 5 21 19995 587 3 266 8 940 3 194 4 10 6 22 20712 514 5 277 0 971 9 196 4 11 4 23 20293 594 4 286 4 936 9 199 4 12 1 24 21162 627 8 299 1 997 2 179 1 13 0 25 21207 532 2 2993 1008 1 167 7 13 3 2180 5 655 6 310 7 1026 6 173 4 14 1 anc anar 4 E m M 4 Size Chart ies Chart Diversity Volume Basal Area TreesPerAcre f Products 1 f Figure 9 Volume worksheet for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 19 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls lg xi WESTPRO File Edit View Insert Format
13. a specific initial state The simulations are stochastic based on bootstrapping of the disturbances observed on the permanent plots between inventories Users can choose cutting regimes by specifying the interval between harvests cutting cycle and a target distribution of trees remaining after harvest A target distribution can be a reverse J shaped distribution or any other desired distribution Diameter limit cuts can also be simulated Tabulated and graphic results show diameter distributions basal area volumes by log grade income net present value and indices of stand diversity by species and size This manual documents the program installation and activation provides suggestions for working with Excel and gives background information on WestProPlus s models It offers a comprehensive tutorial in the form of two practical examples that explain how to start the program enter simulation data execute a simulation compare simulations and plot summary statistics Keywords WestProPlus simulation growth model Douglas fir western hemlock management economics ecology diversity wood quality risk Contents eO TR MPO C CE DEM 1 What OU C 1 Why Simulate This Type of sets ostensa etse sees sets set en sse tes es 2 How Does We
14. ac Douglas fir Other shade Western Other shadeSite Productivity Inter inventory Basal area intolerant hemlock tolerant ac yr yr ft ac Mean 86 38 62 42 56 79 41 24 149 59 10 53 119 01 S D 121 74 105 75 119 63 87 59 72 17 0 90 74 23 Max 1246 45 1982 99 1223 36 1056 16 300 00 23 00 418 66 Min 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 10 00 9 00 2 40 n 2706 2706 2706 2706 2706 2706 2706 Recruitment tree ac yr Douglas fir Other shade Western Other shade Species Size intolerant hemlock tolerant diversity diversity Mean 2 22 1 55 1 34 1 01 0 54 1 65 4733 54 S D 7 32 6 35 5 67 4 48 0 39 0 63 3588 06 Max 103 87 165 25 96 76 96 37 1 38 2 76 22122 76 Min 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 28 15 n 2706 2706 2706 2706 2706 2706 2706 Note Level variables are at the time of the first inventory recruitment is between the two inventories 40 Table 5 Summary statistics for individual tree data Douglas fir Other shade Western Other shade intolerant hemlock tolerant Diameter in Mean 15 28 12 01 12 97 16 06 S D 8 39 6 33 7 69 10 69 Max 81 81 5 42 68 37 119 90 Min 1 57 1 57 1 57 1 57 N 23161 11831 11612 8900 Diameter growth 1n yr Mean 0 28 0 18 0 23 0 23 S D 0 17 0 14 0 15 0 17 Max 5 50 6 47 3 77 3 33 Min 0 00 0 11 0 00 0 45 n 23161 11831 11612 8900 Mortality Rate y Mean 0 003 0 006 0 003 0 004 S D 0 016 0 023 0 017 0 019 Max 0 111 0 111 0 111 0 111 Min 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 n 23838 12650 12007 9295 Volume ft tree Mean 71
15. rate over 500 simulations showed no trend over time Table 8 Stumpage prices 5 1 in Oregon by log grade and species group in 2005 Log Lines 2005 Log Other Shade Other Shade Grade Douglas fir intolerant Species Western hemlock tolerant Species I 9 18 6 60 3 30 7 80 5 58 6 48 3 24 7 50 5 22 5 28 2 94 7 50 IV 4 68 4 50 2 46 7 50 V 0 60 0 60 0 60 0 78 1 Assumes 0 012 ft Mbf 49 Appendix 5 Definition of Diversity of Tree Species Size WestProPlus uses Shannon s index to measure the stand diversity in terms of tree species how uniformly trees are distributed across species groups and timber size classes WestProPlus measures the presence of trees in a class by their basal area which gives more weight to larger trees The tree species diversity is defined in WestProPlus as Dus ily species where y is the basal area of trees of species group i per acre and y is total basal area In WestProPlus m 4 there are four species groups The tree species diversity has a maximum value of n 4 1 39 when basal area is equally distributed in the four species groups and a minimum value of zero when all trees are in the same species group Similarly tree size diversity is H size 35 y y where y is the basal area of trees in diameter class j per acre In WestProPlus n 19 diameter classes The tree size diversity has a maximum n 19 2 94 when basal area is equally distributed in all 19
16. table 3 Within each species trees were grouped into nineteen 2 in diameter classes from 3 to 5 in up to 40 in and above The plot characteristics are summarized in table 4 The theoretical maximum species diversity is In 4 1 39 and the maximum size diversity is n 19 2 94 occurring when all the basal area is equally distributed in all 4 species classes and 19 size classes respectively There was a 0 90 correlation between the diversity by species group used here and the diversity by individual species The average recruitment was highest for Douglas fir and other shade intolerant trees table 4 36 The individual tree data table 5 show that on average Douglas fir trees had the highest diameter growth rate and lowest mortality rate Other shade tolerant species had the highest single tree gross volume Although the time between measurements was short averaging a decade there was much difference in trees and stand conditions between plots It is this cross sectional variation that allows inferring how stands would grow in very different conditions that might arise in space and over long time periods Oreg on Figure 18 Geographic distribution of the FIA plots used to calibrate the growth and yield model 37 Table 2 Distribution of plots by ownership Ownership Number of plots Private 2136 78 9 Public State 438 16 2 Local Government 67 2 5 Other federal owner 29 1 1 Bureau of Land Management 20 0 7
17. 0 7 3 14 3 30 6 14 63 8 244 12 89 14 1 12 4 8 7 6 0 16 2 32 8 15 65 7 24 8 13 2 15 0 12 7 10 1 6 8 14 3 34 5 16 70 2 313 13 6 12 2 13 1 13 9 6 3 14 3 35 7 17 fis 32 6 13 8 12 6 14 3 14 5 15 5 36 8 18 75 3 33 5 13 9 13 1 148 15 2 7 6 14 3 38 1 19 78 9 34 9 14 3 14 3 15 4 16 1 8 5 13 8 40 5 20 82 5 35 0 15 8 148 15 8 16 5 10 1 14 0 418 21 62 4 24 8 118 13 0 12 8 80 6 9 11 3 36 2 22 63 7 25 3 12 0 13 2 13 1 7 5 7 0 11 3 37 9 23 63 1 24 0 12 3 13 3 13 5 7 7 8 4 97 373 24 65 5 25 6 11 4 14 2 14 3 ret TTA 11 3 38 8 25 67 7 26 0 12 4 14 6 14 7 10 3 7 2 10 8 39 2 26 69 0 26 2 12 7 14 9 15 1 10 4 6 2 11 5 40 9 5 id 4 gt WU size BA Chart 4 Species BA Chart Diversity Volume Basal Area TreesPer cre Products 1 Zi Figure 8 Basal Area worksheet for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 18 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls lex WESTPRO File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window a question for help _ 8 X amp v amp amp lt 7 4 21 MB 1009 D E Aral B Z U 7 22 Al fe File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 al oh Be EJF 4 File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 2 3 Site productivity 150 0 fi3 ac vr 4 Site index 30 0 ft 5 7 8 Volume ft ac Average 2513 2 776 3 395 4 10929 229 8 18
18. 1049 18441 69 77 92 43 141 28 4 9349 11689 20079 71 76 89 23 129 14 5 9710 13045 21939 73 08 92 42 137 2 6 11153 14463 23201 76 51 90 17 128 73 7 20804 29217 50303 73 6 97 06 155 06 8 5917 7337 14764 66 73 85 69 132 58 9 12656 14459 22195 78 26 96 83 136 24 10 17656 20924 33917 71 53 86 81 127 95 Species diversity Size diversity q 1 2 q 1 4 q 1 8 q 1 2 q 1 4 q 1 8 1 1 33 1 32 1 33 2 85 2 79 2 43 2 1 33 1 34 1 32 2 85 2 78 2 42 3 1 33 1 34 1 34 2 85 Pe 2 39 4 1 32 1 32 1 32 2 85 2 78 2 42 5 1 32 1 32 1 3 2 86 2 78 2 4 6 1 31 1 33 1 32 2 86 2 79 2 42 7 1 32 1 32 1 31 2 86 2 1 2 39 8 1 32 1 34 1 33 2 85 2 19 2 41 9 1 34 1 35 1 35 2 86 2 78 2 42 10 1 33 1 33 1 33 2 85 2 78 2 4 Percentage of peeler Average basal area ft ac q 1 2 q 1 4 q 1 8 q 1 2 q 1 4 q 1 8 1 0 29 0 23 0 17 75 8 79 2 74 2 0 3 0 22 0 17 79 6 88 5 86 3 0 3 0 22 0 16 74 4 86 5 85 4 4 0 31 0 22 0 16 74 3 83 8 79 2 5 0 29 0 22 0 16 77 9 86 2 82 0 6 0 32 0 23 0 16 73 4 81 8 79 4 7 0 29 0 22 0 16 76 5 88 7 91 5 amp 0 31 0 22 0 17 73 9 83 4 84 5 9 0 29 0 22 0 16 79 6 87 1 81 3 10 0 3 0 22 0 16 74 81 7 79 2 Note Except for NPV all data are averages over 200 years 27 40000 4 NPV a 1504 productivi ty ft3 a 30000 1204 90 4 20000 4 60 4 10000 30 0 0 h 1 2 1 4 1 8 1 2 14 1 8 q ratio q ratio 1 5 4 Species diversity 3 4 Size diversity 2 8 4 1 4 4 26 13
19. 11 inches DBH small sawtimber trees from 11 to 15 inches DBH medium sawtimber trees from 15 to 21 inches DBH and large sawtimber trees 21 inches DBH and larger Underlined numbers show the year of harvest and the basal areas just after harvest and the first row represents the average basal area Volume worksheet This worksheet fig 9 shows the volume in stock by log grade The log grade equations used by WestProPlus are described in appendix 3 The underlined numbers represent the year of harvest and the volume per acre just after the harvest and the first row represents the average volume 14 Products Worksheet The upper part of the products worksheet fig 10 shows data for each harvest basal area cut volume harvested by log grade gross income predicted net present value NPV of the current harvest the total cumulative NPV and the initial stock value The log grade equations and the stochastic stumpage price model and interest rate model used by WestProPlus are described in appendix 3 and 4 The lower part of the products worksheet shows the average annual cut and the average stock in terms of basal area and volume by log grade It also displays the average species diversity and size diversity The results show that with this particular BDq selection and a 10 year cutting cycle the average yield over 200 years would 71 06 ft ac yr for a net present value of 16378 33 ac This is the value of the land and i
20. 5 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 3 0 2 16 7 3 1 2 0 2 4 0 9 4 1 28 20 1 4 1 5 0 8 0 8 0 5 0 4 0 2 17 8 2 0 23 1 1 37 3 0 2 0 1 5 6 0 9 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 18 9 3 0 1 0 0 4 2 1 1 7 2 1 2 0 1 2 0 9 1 0 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 3 19 10 3 0 14 04 1 9 1 7 20 2 0 13 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 6 0 5 0 3 20 11 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 4 13 dul T2 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 3 21 12 0 4 5 1 0 6 0 0 0 7 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 7 0 6 D 7 D 4 0 4 22 13 0 8 46 0 0 0 3 1 6 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 9 6 0 8 0 5 0 3 23 14 0 9 39 2 8 0 0 0 4 15 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 5 0 4 24 15 20 5 0 1 87 54 1 0 0 9 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 4 25 16 18 9 1 7 7 8 5 6 T3 0 6 1 4 0 7 13 0 8 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 4 26 17 15 7 Dal 8 6 6 2 2 3 0 9 1 3 0 9 0 8 1 1 0 8 0 5 0 8 0 4 27 18 14 2 3 6 8 0 5 9 24 1 0 1 1 0 9 0 7 1 2 13 0 5 D 8 D 5 28 19 133 43 74 5 8 28 18 1 1 0 8 0 7 1 1 0 6 0 7 0 5 29 20 g7 8 2 7 7 34 0 7 1 1 1 8 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 8 0 7 0 5 30 21 34 3 0 2 5 2 3 1 9 08 10 10 0 3 0 9 0 6 0 5 0 5 0 4 31 22 2 9 44 1 4 2 7 1 4 0 0 1 8 0 1 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 4 0 4 32 23 11 2 4 2 1 5 2 4 1 4 0 3 1 1 0 4 0 5 0 4 0 6 0 4 0 4 33 24 13 1 5 5 40 25 1 4 1 9 0 0 14 0 6 0 5 0 3 0 5 0 4 0 4 34 25 12 3 5 8 4 1 22 1 7 0 4 1 3 q3 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 4 0 4 0 3 3 26 19 2 6 5 39 24 1 7 0 5 1 1 1 1 0 3 0 2 0 7 0 5 0 4 0 3 36 27 12 8 1s 0 0 25 25 0 0 0 3 d 1 2 0 1 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 4 37 28 11 9 22 0 1 22 25 0 3 0 3 1 1 1 2 0 3 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 4 20 2n na D 44 4 E 1c n o 12 nc na na na ne Size BA Chart Species BA Chart Diver
21. 69 39 55 61 09 83 34 S D 99 59 51 91 90 41 154 33 Max 1986 80 790 70 1353 26 5826 92 Min 0 35 0 35 0 35 0 00 n 23161 11831 11612 8900 Note Diameter and volume are at the time of the first inventory diameter growth and mortality rate are between the two inventories 41 Appendix 2 Growth and Yield Model The growth model of WestProPlus has the following form Liang et al 2005a Gy 1 where 1 is the number of trees per unit area of species group i and diameter class j at time t i 1 for Douglas fir 2 for other shade intolerant species 3 for western hemlock and 4 for other shade tolerant species The matrix G and the vector r are defined as G b a il i2 s G b G 1 17 diig 4 ba 4 19 r F r 0 r r r r 0 where 1 the probability that a tree of species i and diameter class j stays alive and in the same diameter class between t and 1 b 15 the probability that a tree of species i and diameter class j stays alive and grows into diameter class j 1 and r is the number of trees of species group i recruited in the smallest diameter class between 7 and 1 with a time period of one year The vector represents the stochastic part of growth ui is bootstrapped each year from the set of vector differences between the observed and the deterministically predicted stand state for each of the 2 706 plots in Oregon and Washington Liang et al 2005b The b probabi
22. K Return to the Tools menu WestProPlus is now the last item in the menu Select WestProPlus and click OK in the title box The use of trade or firm names in this publication is for reader information and does not imply endorsement by the U S Department of Agriculture of any product or service 6 The WestProPlus menu should now be in the Excel menu bar Until you uninstall it WestProPlus will be a permanent option in the Tools menu of Excel You can load the program by selecting WestProPlus in the Tools menu This will add WestProPlus to the Excel menu and the input data worksheet fig 1 will appear laix i WESTPRO File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window a question for help x eS 6QY t BA Jl 2 1055 Bly arial 10 7 1185 T Al X p PB ac esee s t d es R NN Ll l Input Data File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 2 3 Douglas fir 4 DBH class in 4 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 5 Initial state trees ac P 6 Target state trees ac 2 74 7 Other Shade intolerant Species B DBH class in 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 9 Initial state trees ac p EF Target state trees ac T Y4 i Yd ti Western hemlock DBH cl
23. Madison WI University of Wisconsin Madison Department of Forest Ecology and Management 36 p Miller M Emmingham B 2001 Can selection thinning convert even aged Douglas fir stands to uneven aged structures Western Journal of Applied Forestry 16 1 35 43 Northwest Log Rules Advisory Group 1998 Official log scaling and grading rules 8 ed Eugene OR 48 p Oregon Department of Forestry 2005 Quarterly Douglas fir stumpage prices online http www odf state or us Ralston R Buongiorno J Schulte B Fried J 2003 WestPro a computer program for simulating uneven aged Douglas fir stand growth and yield in the Pacific Northwest Gen Tech Rep PNW GTR 574 Portland OR U S Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station 25 p Schulte B Buongiorno J Lin C R Skog K 1998 SouthPro a computer program for managing uneven aged loblolly pine stands Gen Tech Rep FPL GTR 112 Madison WI U S Department of Agriculture Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory 47 p 34 Stevens J A Barbour R J 2000 Managing the stands of the future based on the lessons of the past estimating western timber species product recovery by using historical data USDA For Serv Res Note PNW RN 528 9 p U S Government Printing Office US GPO 2005 Economic report of the President Washington DC 335 p 35 Appendix 1 WestProPlus Plot Data The data to cali
24. National Park Service 16 0 6 Total 2706 100 0 38 Table 3 Frequency of tree species in all sample plots Common Name Scientific Name Douglas fir Pseudotsuga menziesii 41 27 Other Shade intolerant Species 24 07 Red alder Alnus rubra 10 85 Ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa 7 10 Lodgepole pine Pinus contorta 1 94 Western larch Larix occidentalis 0 92 Black cottonwood Populus balsamifera ssp trichocarpa 0 72 Pacific madrone Arbutus menziesii 0 63 Incense cedar Calocedrus decurrens 0 44 Oregon white oak Quercus garryana 0 42 Western juniper Juniperus occidentalis 0 26 Oregon ash Fraxinus latifolia 0 25 Noble fir Abies procera 0 18 Quaking aspen Populus tremuloides 0 15 Western white pine Pinus monticola 0 14 Sugar pine Pinus lambertiana 0 05 Jeffrey pine Pinus jeffreyi 0 01 Western hemlock Tsuga heterophylla 18 80 Other Shade tolerant Species 15 86 Western redcedar Thuja plicata 5 88 Bigleaf maple Acer macrophyllum 3 09 Grand fir Abies grandis 2 09 Sitka spruce Picea sitchensis 1 44 Pacific silver fir Abies amabilis 1 32 White fir Abies concolor 0 94 Mountain hemlock Tsuga mertensiana 0 42 Engelmann spruce Picea engelmannii 0 34 Subalpine fir Abies lasiocarpa 0 17 Port Orford cedar Chamaecyparis lawsoniana 0 12 Pacific yew Taxus brevifolia 0 03 Alaska yellowcedar Chamaecyparis nootkatensis 0 02 Redwood Sequoia sempervirens 0 01 All the species 100 00 39 Table 4 Summary statistics for plot data Trees
25. Tools Data Window question for help Sa x OSHA GAY DBE J FL FL MB 00 tmsam RE fe Periodic Cut File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 Year 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 Basal area ft ac 418 10 4 23 7 12 9 24 3 27 4 30 1 22 0 42 6 58 3 29 4 23 6 Grade 1 ft ac 181 4 84 7 161 0 177 5 330 3 312 0 185 0 327 5 398 4 499 5 405 7 346 3 Grade 2 ft ac 85 0 37 8 54 4 50 3 628 132 7 153 7 160 3 146 6 124 5 133 5 120 5 Grade 3 ft ac 136 3 77 1 216 8 126 7 233 6 246 7 223 2 2013 3617 360 0 303 3 206 2 Grade 4 ft ac 300 3 27 0 101 5 14 0 225 845 262 5 17 7 83 3 88 3 47 6 32 8 Grade 5 ft ac 0 6 28 25 37 40 78 32 1 3 6 3 42 34 44 Gross income ac 83113 8096 6 8267 9 4621 0 6801 5 9275 8 119702 139425 141556 100728 9303 7 8786 4 Net present value 5 7449 76 433210 1905 84 415 92 387 96 497 13 428 34 370 82 271 54 110 33 70 93 42 88 Total NPV 16378 33 Initial stock value ac 11959 13 Average Annual Cut Basal area 23 ft ac yr Grade 1 237 ft ac yt Grade 2 10 9 ft ac yr Grade 3 23 0 ft ac yt Grade 4 7 7 ft ac yr Grade 5 0 4 ft ac yr Total Volume 7186 ft ac yr Average Stock Basal area 775 ft ac Grade 1 776 3 ft ac Grade 2 395 4 ft ac Grade 3 10929 ft ac Grade 4 229 8 ft ac Grade 5 18 9 ft ac Total Volume 2513 21 ft ac Species diversity 1 32 Shannon s index size diversity 2 85 Shannon s index Length o
26. WestProPlus A Stochastic Spreadsheet Program for the Management of All Aged Douglas fir Western Hemlock Forests in the Pacific Northwest Jingjing Liang Joseph Buongiorno and Robert A Monserud Authors Jingjing Liang is a Research Associate and Joseph Buongiorno is the Class of 1933 Bascom Professor and John McGovern WARF Professor Department of Forest Ecology and Management University of Wisconsin Madison 1630 Linden Drive Madison WI 53706 Robert A Monserud is a research forester U S Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station 620 SW Main St Suite 400 Portland OR 97205 Abstract Liang Jingjing Buongiorno Joseph Monserud Robert A 2006 WestProPlus a spreadsheet program for the management of all aged Douglas fir western hemlock forests in the Pacific Northwest WestProPlus is an add in program developed to work with Microsoft Excel to simulate the growth and management of all aged Douglas fir western hemlock stands in Oregon and Washington Its built in growth model was calibrated from 2 706 permanent plots in the Douglas fir western hemlock forest type in Oregon and Washington Stands are described by the number of trees per acre in each of 19 2 inch diameter classes in four species groups Douglas fir other shade intolerant species western hemlock and other shade tolerant species WestProPlus allows managers to predict stand development by year and for many decades from
27. WestProPlus s marking guides recognize three classes of sawtimber trees 1 Small sawtimber Trees with diameters of 11 to less than 15 inches 2 Medium sawtimber Trees with diameters of 15 to less than 21 inches 3 Large sawtimber Trees with diameters of 21 inches or larger Setup File worksheet A worksheet to store WestProPlus setup files It is typically hidden Setup Files Collections of related input data that are stored together on a Setup File worksheet Setup Files may contain data for initial stand states target stand states cutting cycle parameters stumpage prices or fixed costs and may be used in varying combinations as input for WestProPlus simulations site index tThe average height of a stand s dominant and codominant trees at age 50 years size diversity The diversity of tree diameter classes as measured by the Shannon index With 19 diameter classes size diversity reaches its maximum value of 2 94 when the basal area or number of trees is distributed evenly among the diameter classes species diversity The diversity of species groups as measured by the Shannon index With four species classes species diversity reaches its maximum value of 1 39 when the basal area or number of trees 1s distributed evenly among the species groups species groups tThe four categories used by WestProPlus to classify trees by species For a complete list of species see Liang et al 2005a Douglas fir Pseudotsuga menziesii
28. a running simulations and saving the results Examples of applications in simulating uneven aged management regimes are given We included answers to some common questions Appendices cover the equations involved in WestProPlus and the data used to calibrate these equations The manual assumes that you are familiar with the basics of Microsoft Excel All the spreadsheets shown in this manual are screenshots from the Excel 2003 2 Getting Started System Requirements You need the following hardware and software to operate WestProPlus A computer PC with at least 128 megabytes of random access memory RAM Microsoft Windows 98 2000 Me XP or Windows NT 4 Microsoft Excel 97 or above A free copy of the WestProPlus software downloaded from http www forest wisc edu facstaff buongiorno or from the authors through jbuongio wisc edu Loading WestProPlus To install the program for the first time im Insert the diskette containing WestProPlus xla into your computer or download it from the Web site to your local disk and go to step 3 Select the WestProPlus xla icon and copy it onto your hard disk For your convenience you may save it in a new folder named WestProPlus e g C WestProPlus WestProPlus xla 1 and srART NEW WORKBOOK Open Microsoft Exce Under the Tools menu select Add ins In the add ins dialogue box select Browse and choose WestProPlus xla from its location on your hard disk Click O
29. ass in Initial state trees ac e E 15 16 DBH class in 17 Initial state trees ac 18 Target state trees ac 19 20 Year of first harvest 21 Length of cutting cycle yr 22 Length of simulation yr 23 Re entry Cost ac 24 25 26 28 Initial Timber Prices ft Site Productivity Site Index Interest Rate Log Grade a number between 10 to 300 ft at 50 years of age a number between 30 and 99 percent Log Grade Definition Peeler Douglas fir Other Shade intolerant Western hemlock Other Shade tolerant 34 1 Sawmill 2 Sawmill 3 Sawmill Other 4 gt M Input Data Sheeti Sheet Sheet3 14 1 Figure 1 Input data worksheet There are three sample workbooks at http www forest wisc edu facstaff buongiorno with the input data worksheets corresponding to the examples in section 4 of this paper By copying the data from these worksheets into your input data worksheet you will be able to run these examples with WestProPlus Unloading WestProPlus To finish working with WestProPlus choose the command Quit under the WestProPlus menu The I window until you WestProPlus menu will disappear but the current worksheets will stay in the Exce close them To remove the WestProPlus menu and uninstall the program 1 Quit WestProPlus 2 Under the Tools menu
30. between 30 and 99 the range of the data The Interest Rate represents the initial interest rate Starting from this initial value WestProPlus generates a sequence of yearly stochastic interest rates These interest rates are used to calculate the net present value of each harvest and the cumulative net present value The Initial Timber Prices are the initial stumpage prices by log grade and species group These entries are optional If you leave these cells blank WestProPlus will generate random initial prices Starting from these initial values WestProPlus generates a sequence of stochastic prices App 4 BDq Calculator A BDg distribution is a tree distribution by diameter class defined by a stand basal area B a maximum and minimum tree diameter D and a q ratio q the ratio of the number of trees in a given diameter class to the number of trees in the next larger class You can use the BDq calculator Schulte et al 1998 to define the target state or the initial state with a BDq distribution To use the BDq calculator click on the BDq calculator icon in the input data worksheet Use the arrow buttons to set the stand basal area ft ac the q ratio the minimum and the maximum diameters 1n click the Calculate button fig 2 21 Basal Area Maximum Diameter zi zi Minimum Diameter zi sq ft ac 120 in 33 Q ratio 1 3 in 3 Calculate Close Trees ac by size class 4 6 8
31. brate the stand growth model used by WestProPlus came from the PNW FIA Integrated Database Version 1 2 Hiserote and Waddell 2003 specifically the part of the database that combines information from four different forest inventories FIAEO FIAWO FIAEW FIAWW conducted by the USDA Forest Service between 1988 and 2000 The 2 706 plots used in calibrating WestProPlus had all been classified in the Douglas fir western hemlock forest type they had been measured at two successive inventories and they were located in Oregon and Washington west of 120 in longitude fig 18 This area includes the Coast Range and the Cascades Range of western Washington and Oregon as well as the Klamath region of southwestern Oregon About 80 of the plots were on private land and most of the remaining 2096 were on lands belonging to the States of Oregon or Washington table 2 U S Federal lands e g National Forests National Parks and Bureau of Land Management forests are not included in this database The trees were categorized into four species classes table 3 Douglas fir other shade intolerant species western hemlock and other shade tolerant species Barbour and Billings 1988 Red alder Alnus rubra and ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa were the most abundant shade intolerant species other than Douglas fir Western redcedar Thuja plicata and bigleaf maple Acer macrophyllum were the most abundant shade tolerant species other than western hemlock
32. d 2 2 1 2 2 h 1 2 1 4 1 8 1 2 1 4 1 8 q ratio q ratio 0 4 of peeler 90 Basal area ft2 a 0 3 4 80 4 1 4 1 8 1 2 1 4 1 8 q ratio q ratio Figure 16 Mean and standard error of the management criteria over 10 replications for different q ratios other things being held constant 28 Troubleshooting WestProPlus Why can t I open WestProPlus First make sure you have the latest version of WestProPlus 2005 Check our website http www forest wisc edu facstaff buongiorno for updates Set your Excel macro security level to Medium You can change the level at Tools Macro Security After setting the macro security level to Medium each time you load WestProPlus a security warning message window will pop up and you should select Enable Macros fig 17 Security Warning ix G Research Fall 05 WestProPlus WestProPlus xla contains macros Macros may contain viruses It is usually safe to disable macros but if the macros are legitimate you might lose some Functionality Disable Macros t Enable Macros More Info Figure 17 Microsoft Excel Security Warning Window against Macro viruses WestProPlus does not insert a new input data worksheet What can I do Before inserting a new input data worksheet WestProPlus checks to see if there is a worksheet named Input Data already open If there is one WestProPlus will not generate a new input data worksheet To get a new input da
33. eter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle Running Simulations Upon running a simulation WestProPlus will replace any old tables and charts with new ones For this reason you should save the workbook after each simulation To run a series of simulations load the input data for the first management regime run the simulation save your outcome and proceed to load and run the second management regime You can then compare the data on economic return various ecological criteria and wood quality for different regimes To that end comparative charts and tables can be built with Excel from the WestProPlus output worksheets 13 Simulation Output The simulation outcomes of the forgoing BDq selection are displayed in tables and charts They are located in the same workbook as the Input Data worksheet The following results are for the initial condition and BDq management specified by the input data in figure 6 TreesPerAcre worksheet This worksheet fig 7 shows the number of trees per acre by species and diameter class for each year of simulation Scrolling to the right reveals the tree distribution for other species The underlined numbers are the year of harvest and the number of trees per acre after the harvest Basal Area Worksheet This worksheet fig 8 shows for each simulated year the total stand basal area the stand basal area by species group and the stand basal area by timber size category poles trees from 5 to
34. f simulation 200 yr M Size BA Chart ies BA Chart Diversity Volume Basal Area TreesPerAcre Products 1 rtf Figure 10 Products worksheet for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 20 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls lex WESTPRO File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help question for help _ 6 x OSH e amp lt 7 x 4 10 0 zo u 2 Al fe File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 Shannon s Shannon s Species Size Diversity Diversity Average 1 32 Year 0 1 32 2 62 1 133 275 2 1 33 2 74 3 131 2 74 4 1 31 2 75 5 1 30 2 75 6 1 30 2 77 1 29 2 76 8 1 29 2 77 9 1 28 2 79 10 1 32 2 79 131 277 12 1 31 2 76 13 1 33 2 80 14 1 34 2 81 15 1 35 2 84 16 1 30 2 84 17 1 30 2 85 18 1 30 287 19 1 30 2 87 20 1 30 2 87 21 133 2 86 22 1 33 2 86 23 1 35 2 87 24 1 33 2 88 25 1 34 2 90 26 1 34 2 90 2 1 34 2 91 x 20 4 24 Z M 4 gt Mj Size Chart ies Chart _ Diversity 4 Volume Basal Area 4 TreesPerAcre Products 1 fr Figure 11 Diversity worksheet for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 21 TR Eile Edit Insert Format Tools Chart Window a question fo
35. he BDq calculator set to produce the target state for Douglas fir trees with basal area of 30 ft ac maximum diameter of 40 in and q ratio of 1 2 Clicking on the Calculate button produces the number of trees by size class BDq Distribution Calculator EE Basal Area Maximum Diameter Minimum Diameter sq 30 in 40 Q ratio 1 2 4 in 3 d Calculate Close by size class 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 4 0277 3 3564 2 7970 2 3308 1 9423 1 6186 1 3488 1 1240 0 9367 0 7805 0 6504 0 5420 0 4517 0 3764 0 3137 0 2614 0 2178 0 1515 0 1512 opy to Input Data worksheet as Douglas fir Other shade intolerant species Western hemlock Other shade tolerant species C Initial Distribution C Initial Distribution C Tnitial Distribution Initial Distribution Target Distribution Target Distribution C Target Distribution Target Distribution Figure 5 BDg Distribution Calculation dialog box To copy the distribution of Douglas fir to the Input Data worksheet select the option box corresponding to Douglas fir Target Distribution and click on the Copy button Figure 6 shows the Input Data worksheet for the above BDq selection regime with q 1 2 12 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls WESTPRO File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Type que forhelp 258 x Dc el v
36. in Wisconsin and Michigan Liang et al 2004b and for loblolly pine in the Southern United States Schulte et al 1998 respectively We have used our experience with these programs to further simplify the data input and the program output to increase WestProPlus usefulness for practitioners Why Simulate This Type of Stand Douglas fir western hemlock Pseudotsuga menziesii Tsuga heterophylla forests in the Pacific Northwest are very productive They were harvested heavily during the late 1800s and early 1900s at an unsustainable rate Curtis and Carey 1996 Consequently although they vary highly in composition and structure Douglas fir western hemlock forests are mostly in early seral stages Barbour and Billings 1988 Douglas fir wood is valued for its superior mechanical properties making it most useful in building and construction Barbour and Kellogg 1990 Western hemlock is another important commercial species It is shade tolerant yet fast growing deer and elk browse it and hemlock trees are a part of the esthetics of western forests Burns and Honkala 1990 Even aged silviculture is prevalent in managed Douglas fir forests There has been little tendency to adopt uneven aged selection management Emmingham 1998 despite its attractive features Hansen et al 1991 Guldin 1996 This seems to be due to a lack of experience with uneven aged management and scarcity of data regarding its effects compared to even aged systems
37. kins method WestProPlus simulates stochastic price series with this model by bootstrapping i e by drawing randomly with replacement at each step t a pair of shocks e and em from the residuals obtained by fitting model 3 to the data The initial price of Douglas fir grade I logs is equal to that entered by the user fig 1 or lacking this it is bootstrapped from the prices observed from 1977 to 2003 With bootstrapped initial prices the mean predicted stumpage prices of Douglas fir grade I logs and its standard error over 500 replications of 100 year simulations had a slight positive trend over time but it was not statistically significant The price of logs of other grades than grade I is calculated according to the relative prices entered by the user fig 1 or lacking this according to the relative prices in table 8 In either case the relative prices are constant over time The annual rate of return of AAA bonds from 1970 to 2004 U S Government Printing Office 2005 was used as the interest rate WestProPlus uses an autoregressive model of interest rates liq 0 72 08 4 48 where r was the interest rate at year t and was the white noise residual WestProPlus simulates stochastic interest rates by bootstrapping at each step t a shock was drawn randomly with replacement from the sample of the residuals obtained by fitting the model to the data With bootstrapped initial interest rate the mean predicted interest
38. lity is equal to the annual tree diameter growth g in yr divided by the width of the diameter class Diameter growth is a function of tree diameter D in stand basal area B ft ac site productivity ft ac yr tree species diversity H and tree size diversity Ha 42 0 3094 0 2403 0 3553 0 2304 0 0124D 0 0038D 0 0148D 0 0081D 0 0001D 0 00010 0 00030 0 00010 0 00108 0 0007 B 0 001058 0 0008 8 0 00070 0 0259H 0 00050 0 02780 0 00020 0 009807 0 00050 0 05060 0 09557 0 0273H 0 068917 0 05689 The expected recruitment r trees ac yr of species i is represented by a Tobit model f Bix i B x i with X 8 8824 0 12115 0 0971N 0 02270 4 50334 2 7500H 9 5715 0 07738 0 0975 0 00580 3 4070H 2 42005 12 508 0 08728 0 0926N 0 01900 5 95069 4 01005 13 987 0 07008 0 0924N 0 02090 3 2546H 0 9200H where N is the number of trees per acre in species group i P and respectively the standard normal cumulative and density functions and the standard deviations of the residuals are 0 9 5366 O 9 0863 711 0664 9 3270 The probability of tree mortality per year mj is a species dependent probit function of tree size and stand state m 105 2 1103 0 0905D 0 00120 0 00198 0 00140 0 0059H 0 5110H re 1 4063 0 05190 0 00100 0 00128 0 00100 0 0022H 0 1411H 3 1746 0 1057D 0 00197 0 00368
39. ltiply by find inches in 0 3937 centimeters cm feet ft 0 3048 meters m square feet ft 0 0929 square meters m square feet per acre ft ac 4 3562 square meters per hectare m ha cubic feet ft 35 3147 cubic meters m cubic feet per acre ft ac 14 2913 cubic meters per hectare 31 Literature Cited Barbour M G Billings W D 1988 North American Terrestrial Vegetation Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 421p Barbour R J Kellogg 1990 Forest management and end product quality a Canadian perspective Can J For Res 20 405 414 Barbour R J Parry D L 2001 Log and lumber grades as indicators of wood quality in 20 to 100 year old Douglas fir trees from thinned and unthinned stands General Technical Report 510 USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Portland 22 p Burns R M Honkala B H tech coords 1990 Silvics of North America 1 Conifers USDA Agric Handb 654 675 p Curtis R O Carey A B 1996 Managing Economic and Ecological Values in Douglas Fir Forests J For 94 1 7 35 37 Efron B Tibshirani R J 1994 An Introduction to the Bootstrap CRC Press Boca Raton FL 456 p Emmingham W 1998 Uneven aged management in the Pacific Northwest J For 96 7 37 39 Guldin J M 1996 The role of uneven aged silviculture in the context of ecosystem management W J Appl For 11 1 4 12 32 Hanson
40. measures time in years All simulations start at time zero and last for the Length of the simulation The Year of first harvest may be set at any nonnegative integer value The Length of cutting cycle i e the interval between harvests must be at least 1 year To simulate stand growth without harvest set the Year of the first harvest to a value greater than the Length of the simulation The Re entry cost represents cost of doing a harvest in dollars per acre independent of the volume harvested The cost of timber sale preparation and administration would be part of a typical re entry cost The Site Productivity measured by mean annual increment describes the wood growing capacity of a site It is defined as the increment in volume of a timber stand averaged over the period between age zero and the age at which mean annual increment reaches its maximum value Hanson et al 2002 If you do not enter any value for Site Productivity WestProPlus assumes that the site productivity is 150 ft ac yr the average site productivity in the 2 706 permanent plots in Washington and Oregon used to calibrate the growth equations of WestProPlus The site productivity should be between 10 to 300 ft ac yr the range of the data The Site Index was measured by the average total height of the dominant and codominant trees at 50 years of age Hanson et al 2002 WestProPlus uses site index to predict log grade The site index should be
41. mulation Otherwise WestProPlus will overwrite the previous results every time you run a new simulation All the data in the output worksheets are protected and you cannot change them To see how results change with different input data change the input data worksheet and rerun the simulation 4 Example Simulating BDq Management Regimes In this example we performed simulations of selection regimes based on the basal area diameter q ratio BDq principle For a given initial state we changed the q ratio of the target stand state and interpreted the results in terms of effects on economic returns productivity tree diversity wood quality and stand structure We concentrate on the q ratio because it is the main effect in most uneven aged management criteria Liang et al 2005b 10 Simulation Parameters The simulations were for 200 years with cutting cycles of 10 years The initial stand state was the average distribution of the 2 706 permanent plots used in calibrating the growth equations of WestProPlus fig 3 Composition by number of trees was 34 Douglas fir 30 other shade intolerant species 20 western hemlock and 16 other shade tolerant species The average site productivity was 150 ft ac yr and the average 50 year site index was 90 ft The first harvest started at year 1 The fixed cost of re entry was set at 254 ac the estimated cost of preparing and administering timber sales in the state of Washington Ralston e
42. nitial trees under this management It suggests that this regime would be economically efficient Because the value of the initial trees was 11959 13 ac the present value of the return from land and initial trees would exceed the initial investment in trees Diversity Worksheet The diversity worksheet fig 11 shows Shannon s indices of species group diversity and tree size diversity for each simulated year see App 5 for the definitions of Shannon s diversity The underlined data show the year of harvest and the values of the diversity indices just after harvest The boldfaced values represent the average diversity indices of all years Diversity Chart The Diversity Chart fig 12 displays the evolution of Shannon s indices over time The results show that the effect of stochasticity in forest growth is greater than the effect of harvests on the species and size diversity 15 Species BA Chart This chart fig 13 shows the development of basal area by species throughout the simulation period The chart shows the sharp decrease of total basal area is due to the periodic harvests It also suggests that in the long run this management would sustain all four species groups in the stand Timber Size BA Chart This chart fig 14 shows the development of basal area by timber size throughout the simulation It excludes the basal area of trees smaller than poles less than 5 inches in diameter The results suggest that all the fo
43. of the control variable would be just significant 46 Table 7 Percentage of timber volume by log grade I through V and size for the shade intolerant species except Douglas fir and the shade tolerant species except western hemlock Diameter Other shade intolerant species Other shade tolerant species in I II IV V I II IV V 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 58 12 8 0 0 0 100 0 0 30 0 66 4 10 0 20 0 80 0 0 37 0 61 1 12 0 24 0 76 0 0 35 0 64 1 14 0 23 10 66 0 0 33 12 55 0 16 0 16 59 25 0 0 28 50 20 2 18 0 20 69 7 4 0 36 47 16 1 20 0 16 78 6 0 0 36 48 11 4 22 0 21 79 0 0 0 29 60 9 2 24 0 14 77 4 5 0 37 50 11 2 26 6 27 64 3 0 1 26 66 6 1 28 7 33 58 2 0 1 40 52 6 1 30 19 43 36 2 0 1 32 56 7 4 32 21 43 29 0 7 3 42 50 5 0 34 13 69 13 0 6 0 44 52 4 0 36 0 70 20 0 10 0 44 48 8 0 38 0 40 60 0 0 8 62 31 0 0 40 0 75 25 0 0 0 43 50 0 7 47 Appendix 4 Stochastic Stumpage Price and Interest Rate Models The stumpage price model in WestProPlus Liang et al 2005b was calibrated with quarterly stumpage prices of Douglas fir grade I logs from 1977 to 2003 in Oregon Oregon Department of Forestry 2005 The following autoregressive moving average model was used to represent quarterly price changes PB 060 0 05 e 3 where P and P were stumpage prices at quarter and quarter respectively and was a white noise residual error The parameters were estimated from the data with the Box Jen
44. ogistic regression and a nominal response variable ijl In il ils 5 ijm where was the ratio between the probability of log grade 1 2 m 1 and log grade for species i and diameter class j The parameters Ba of the log grade equation for Douglas fir and western hemlock are in table 6 For both species log grade was higher for larger trees on less productive sites There was no data on stand characteristics for other shade tolerant and shade intolerant species and no systematic relation was observed between grade and diameter for these species groups WestProPlus uses the observed percentages of total volume by log grade for each diameter class and assumes that they are constant table 7 45 Table 6 Estimation results of the nominal logistic equations of log grade P Dependent Independent Coefficient SE variable variable Douglas fir Tt TT Constant 2 91 1 20 0 02 D 0 02 0 00 0 00 S 0 33 0 10 0 00 TI TT Constant 1 66 1 43 0 25 D 0 02 0 00 0 00 S 0 33 0 13 0 03 Western hemlock TL TI Constant 8 94 4 28 0 04 D 0 16 0 02 0 00 S 1 33 0 50 0 03 TL TI Constant 8 37 4 04 0 04 D 0 14 0 02 0 00 S 1 00 0 43 0 07 TI TT Constant 5 90 1 59 0 00 D 0 10 0 01 0 00 S 0 43 0 13 0 00 Tr 7 probability of log grade no Douglas fir log was observed of grade 2 grade 5 was not observed for both species D tree diameter S site index P evel at which the effect
45. or the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 24 1 2 Microsoft Excel 4 Help Window Hel Chart Tools Format B Insert W Fle Edit view EZA m 777 XD fU ue 21 tee ee 3t 3t e E eo MN E Md m e 4 5 E 3 s lol amp 5 D 18 e WES N Ne 5 ES 3 M 2 B B t o SE 4 2 5 S Ld c E E E al Ms x ao o fe SS A AN Diversity Chart Volume Chart 4 Figure 15 Volume chart for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 25 Comparison of BDq Selection Regimes As an example of how WestProPlus can be used to compare managements follow the steps below to compare BDq selection regimes with a ten year cutting cycle 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter and a q ratio of 1 2 1 4 or 1 8 1 Load WestProPlus fill in and save three input data worksheets corresponding to the three q ratios 2 Run a simulation for each input data worksheet and record the total net present value
46. r hep 2 X EAO A 0 O o J zvu amp e M f Diversity Indices rrr Size Figure 12 Diversity chart for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 22 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls Ele Edit View Insert Format Tools Chart Window a question for help Will gl X amp 0 A d Jjszu lss gt S fe Stand Basal Area by Species Other shade tolerant species o Western hemlock 1400 4 BA fiac B Other shade intolerant species El Douglas fir 40 0 Figure 13 Species Basal Area chart for BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 23 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls zl 5 x File Edit Insert Format Tools Chart Window Help a question for hep 28 X Ee 10 1 3 ule S fe m 2 oid Basal Ar abv Timber i o Large Sawtimber Medium Sawtimber Small Sawtimber 14004 f ac m Pole 120 0 100 0 80 0 60 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Year Diversity Chart Volume Chart Size BA Chart ecies B Chart 4 Div Volume 4 Basal Area TreesPerAcre Products Data Sheetl Sheet2 4 Sheet3 Figure 14 Timber Size BA chart f
47. roPIns Plot Data a 04 iini ce hortator to iens Log ES a kei Vase 36 Appendix 2 Growth and Yield Model e cerei e eee e eee eee e esee eene setenta seen nasse tna sss eenuo 42 Appendix 3 Log Grade EQuatiOms siic cccscscdsssassancsoesasadanasadnenstonscssensesnonpessedevesdecseadenssedoasadsvedaneadetoooes 45 Appendix 4 Stochastic Stumpage Price and Interest Rate Models eere 48 D Assumes 0 012 ft3 Mbf ER 49 Appendix 5 Definition of Diversity of Tree Species and 50 n Diae E ETE EE M 51 1 Introduction The WestProPlus User s Manual is intended to help forest managers predict the effects of management or lack thereof on stand growth productivity income wood quality diversity of species and diversity of tree size The WestProPlus User s Manual documents background instruction and additional suggestions for using the WestProPlus program The next section explains how to install WestProPlus on your computer and provides a description of the input data as well as instructions for loading and saving these data running simulations and saving the results Examples of applications in simulating management regimes are given If you are new to WestProPlus it will be useful to run these examples while reading the manual We included answers to some common questions Appendices cover the growth equations volume eq
48. sity 4 Volume A Basal Area TreesPerAcre ilal Figure 7 TreePerAcre worksheet for the BDq selection regime with 87 ft ac residual basal area 40 in maximum diameter q 1 2 and ten years cutting cycle 17 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls ede xj WESTPRO File Edit Insert Format Tools Data Window a question For help 6 x OSH OGRA B 100 2 B gt Al fe File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 B File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 2 Site productivity 150 0 fi3 ac yr Site index 90 0 ft Other Shade Other Shade Small Medium Large Douglas fir Intolerant Western hemlock tolerant Pole Timber Timber Timber D lt 11 in I D 15 D 2lin Basal Area Average 77 5 30 8 16 3 16 4 14 1 11 8 7 8 12 5 455 Year 0 90 9 36 3 23 7 15 8 15 0 36 2 19 9 18 8 16 0 1 513 20 3 122 2 0 2 8 9 4 9 4 15 5 16 8 2 53 1 21 4 12 6 9 3 9 9 9 5 9 6 16 4 17 6 3 51 6 22 2 9 1 8 8 10 4 74 9 1 15 8 19 2 4 54 6 23 3 10 3 10 3 10 8 94 8 3 16 5 20 5 5 55 4 24 1 8 7 10 9 11 7 78 7 8 18 1 21 7 6 58 2 25 0 8 9 12 2 12 1 9 0 74 18 7 232 7 64 7 28 9 9 3 14 0 12 5 8 8 11 1 20 1 24 6 8 66 1 29 5 3 3 14 5 12 8 8 6 11 2 20 0 26 4 9 68 0 30 5 9 2 15 2 13 2 9 2 11 3 18 4 28 1 10 54 3 254 94 15 8 13 6 93 8 8 17 5 28 7 56 0 235 83 120 112 51 80 143 275 12 55 0 228 8 5 12 0 11 6 48 6 5 14 6 29 1 13 58 7 234 10 8 12 5 12
49. stProPlus setis sess tias etas etas 3 What Is in LH ossos 3 2 Getting SURE UE Cec o odia rk eh te Mene e ERE REREN CHAT DA EORR DOR GRE MEE 4 QEIQUBICIHMEAITII CE s a 4 Loading M 4 Unloading amp 6 Se B WeStP rolls eT 6 Mf iua Cb ecc 6 BDG Calculator e 8 Storing Data and Retrieving Stored Data 9 RUNNING 1 9 4 Example Simulating BDq Management Regimes ssccccsccccsssccsccsssccssssssesescssscessssessssessees 10 BEI Ir CRE 11 Running SiIMUAONS e 13 iuter M soss 14 Comparison of BDq Selection Regimes 26 Troubleshooting iduwiidiimr D d 29 Acknowled o mients cave pa iuda E OES EE E So Ei 30 Metric tte em 31 Literature Cited cT r 32 Appendix 1 WestP
50. t al 2003 The initial interest rate was set at 3 8 per year the yield of AAA bonds net of inflation from 1970 to 2004 U S Government Printing Office 2005 The initial stumpage prices came from Oregon stumpage prices in 2005 Log Lines 2005 table 8 80 Douglas fir Other shade intolerant species 60 Western hemlock Other shade tolerant species 40 ke 1 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 Diameter in Figure 3 Initial stand state The three alternative target distributions are shown in figure 4 They all assumed a maximum diameter of 40 in for all species The basal area was kept the same in the three alternatives 87 ft ac in total Miller and Emmingham 2001 consisting of 30 ft ac of Douglas fir 26 ft ac of other shade intolerant species 17 ft ac of western hemlock and 14 ft ac of other shade tolerant species The q 11 ratio was set at 1 2 1 4 or 1 8 Higher q values kept more trees in the smaller diameter classes relative to the large fig 4 q 1 2 mD ouglas fr shade intolerant species gestern hemlock Other shade tolerant species 60 60 90 90 30 30 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 4 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 Diameter in Diam eter in Diameter in Figure 4 Target distribution of trees by species groups and diameter class for the BDq regime used here Figure 5 shows t
51. ta worksheet close all Excel windows and reopen WestProPlus Why is there no BDq calculator in the example worksheets 29 The example workbooks contain only the input data After you have installed WestProPlus the BDq calculator icon will appear in the new input data worksheet At that point you can copy data from the example workbooks into the input data worksheet Why is the BDq calculator not working WestProPlus must be open to use the BDq calculator To use the BDq calculator on a previously saved input data worksheet WestProPlus must be in the Excel menu bar Why can t I copy all the content from the example worksheet to the input data worksheet AII the cells of the input data worksheet are protected except those that need entries marked with marks Copy only the data from the example worksheet and paste them to the corresponding locations in the input data worksheet For further assistance or to send us your comments please contact us through jbuongio wisc edu Acknowledgments We thank Dean Parry Karen Waddell and Susan Stevens Hummel for assistance with the data The research leading to this program was supported in part by the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station by USDA CSREES grant 2001 35108 10673 and by the School of Natural Resources University of Wisconsin Madison The authors take sole responsibility for any error or omission 30 Metric Equivalents When you know Mu
52. uations and log grade equations of WestProPlus and the data used to calibrate these equations The WestProPlus software and all the sample spreadsheets can be downloaded online from http www forest wisc edu facstaff buongiorno What Is WestProPlus WestProPlus is a computer program to predict the development of all aged Douglas fir western hemlock forests in the Pacific Northwest With this program various management regimes can be considered and their outcomes can be quickly predicted WestProPlus is a successor of WestPro Ralston et al 2003 WestProPlus has the following features compared to WestPro 1 Extensions of the database from 66 uneven aged plots to 2 706 all aged plots covering most of the Douglas fir western hemlock type in Oregon and Washington App 1 2 Expansion of species groups from two softwoods hardwoods to four Douglas fir other shade intolerant western hemlock other shade tolerant 3 Calibration of an improved growth model with particular attention to the effect of stand diversity on growth mortality and recruitment Liang et al 2005a 4 Introduction of log grade equations to predict the effects of management on wood quality 5 Recognition of risk and uncertainty in stand growth timber prices and interest rates Three other deterministic relatives of WestProPlus CalPro NorthPro and SouthPro already exist for California mixed conifer forests Liang et al 2004a northern hardwoods
53. ur size groups would remain present in the stand for 200 years The basal area of large sawtimber would tend to increase over time with this management Volume Chart This chart fig 15 shows the development of volume in stock by log grade throughout the simulation period The chart suggests that all log grades would continue to be present in the stand The stock of peeler and 1 Sawmill logs tended to increase slightly over time under this management 16 Microsoft Excel q 1 2 xls elei xj WESTPRO File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Type a question for help wl f X OSH RGRAY amp BB S aooe x l 10 2 E Tms R B z u gt Al fe File created by Jingjing Liang on 1 18 2006 B E D E F G H J K L M N P 1 File created by Jin jing Liang on 1 18 2006 2 2 3 Site productivity 150 0 fi3 ac yr 4 Site index 90 0 ft 5 DBH in 4 0 6 0 8 0 10 0 12 0 14 0 16 0 18 0 20 0 22 0 24 0 16 0 28 0 30 0 B Target trees ac 44 3 4 28 23 19 1 6 13 11 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 5 0 5 0 4 7 Douglas fir 8 Year Trees ac 9 0 17 0 13 7 9 6 7 0 5 0 3 6 29 17 1 1 0 7 0 5 0 3 0 2 0 1 10 1 4 1 33 28 23 20 1 5 1 4 ERIN 09 08 05 0 4 0 1 0 1 11 2 42 33 28 24 20 12 14 1 2 1 0 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 1 12 3 43 du 28 24 9 15 13 16 0 9 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 1 13 4 4 4 34 28 24 20 1 6 t3 1 6 1 0 0 8 0 6 0 5 0 2 0 2 14 5 3 8 43 1 6 3 9 1 6 t5 1 3 1 6 1 0 9 0 7 0 5 0 3 0 2 15 6 3 9 2 4 277 0 8 45 25 1 9 14 1
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