Decision Support Tool User Guide
Contents
1. Results on the Simulation Output worksheet may also be manually compared to the thresholds For the consumption risk outcome the following comparisons are performed e If cancer risk lt 1E 05 10 and noncancer hazard lt 1 0 at 95 Percentile the consumption risk outcome is 1 Very Low e Otherwise if cancer risk lt 1E 05 10 and noncancer hazard lt 1 0 at 75 Percentile the consumption risk outcome is 2 Low e Otherwise if cancer risk lt 1E 05 10 and noncancer hazard lt 1 0 at 50 Percentile the consumption risk outcome is 3 Moderate e Otherwise if either cancer risk gt 1E 05 10 or noncancer hazard gt 1 0 at 50 Percentile or if both are above the consumption risk outcome is 4 High For the sediment linkage outcome the following comparisons are performed e 6If linkage lt 0 5 at 75 Percentile the sediment contribution outcome is 1 Very Low e Otherwise if linkage lt 0 5 at 50 Percentile the sediment contribution outcome is 2 Low e Otherwise if linkage lt 0 50 at 25 Percentile the sediment contribution outcome is 3 Moderate e Otherwise if percent contribution 50 at 25 percentile the sediment contribution outcome is 4 High 7 Plot and Graphically Evaluate Results In some cases the user may wish to plot the consumption risk and sediment linkage results to examine the distributions Examination of plo2. 4 8632E 08 6 8421E 08 0 03 5 7476E 08 8 2414E 08 0 04 6 6229E 08 9 3568E 08 Consumption Risk Graph 0 05 7 2823E 08 1 0382E 07 0 06 8 0510E 08 1 1367E 07 0 07 8 6654E 08 1 2470E 07 0 08 9 3396E 08 1 3394E 07 0 09 1 0002E 07 1 4333E 07 0 10 1 0737E 07 1 5279E 07 0 11 1 1341E 07 1 6202E 07 0 12 1 2017E 07 1 7073E 07 0 13 1 2582E 07 1 8161E 07 0 14 1 3279E 07 1 9100E 07 0 15 1 3998E 07 1 9991E 07 0 16 1 4739E 07 2 0882E 07 0 17 1 5288E 07 2 1867E 07 0 18 1 5982E 07 2 2864E 07 0 19 1 6590E 07 2 3689E 07 0 20 1 7195E 07 2 4549E 07 0 21 1 7875E 07 2 5420E 07 0 22 1 8582E 07 2 6343E 07 023 1 9207E 07 2 7408E 07 0 24 1 9822E 07 2 8333E 07 0 25 2 0490E 07 2 9187E 07 0 26 2 1114E 07 3 0083E 07 0 27 2 1797E 07 3 0932E 07 0 28 2 2420E 07 3 2154E 07 0 29 2 3110E 07 3 2968E 07 0 30 2 3826E 07 3 4083E 07 0 31 2 4648E 07 3 5201E 07 0 32 2 5335E 07 3 6233E 07 0 33 2 6062E 07 3 7121E 07 034 2 6783E 07 3 8204E 07 0 35 2 7575E 07 3 9410E 07 0 36 2 8363E 07 4 0531E 07 0 37 2 9189E 07 4 1591E 07 0 38 3 0106E 07 4 2855E 07 0 39 3 1050E 07 4 4214E 07 040 3 1918E 07 45297E 07 0 41 3 2849E 07 4 6573E 07 0 42 3 3670E 07 4 8013E 07 0 43 3 4523E 07 4 9270E 07 0 44 3 5427E 07 ja Es Assessment Summary Consumption Risk Plot Sediment Linkage Plot MCS Default Parameters Fod 4 Figure 7 Plot of cancer risk distribution 13 Plotting Sediment Linkage The Sediment Linkage Plot worksheet contains a cumulative distribution plot of the sed
3. 50 75 90 95 99 100 CancerRiskChlordanes 10000 7 0E 07 9 1E 07 1 1E 08 3 7E 08 7 3E 08 1 1E 07 2 0E 07 4 1E 07 8 3E 07 1 6E 06 2 2E 06 4 5E 06 1 7E 05 CancerRiskDDTs 10000 9 9E 07 1 3E 06 1 5E 08 5 3E 08 1 0E 07 1 5E 07 2 9E 07 5 9E 07 1 2E 06 2 2E 06 3 6 4E 06 2 7E 05 CancerRiskDieldrin 10000 1 7E 06 2 3E 06 2 4E 08 9 3E 08 1 8E 07 2 7E 07 5 1E 07 1 j 3 9E 06 5 6E 06 1 1E 05 5 2E 05 CancerRiskPCBs 10000 2 2E 05 295 05 3 3E 07 1 2E 06 2 3E 06 3 4E 06 6 4E 06 4 9E 05 7 0E 05 1 4E 04 6 0E 04 NoncanHazardChlordanes 10000 0 038 0 049 0 001 0 002 0 004 0 006 0 011 T y 0 085 1 0 245 0 903 NoncanHazardDDTs 10000 0 014 0 018 0 000 0 001 0 001 0 002 0 004 0 0 031 0 044 0 087 0 368 NoncanHazardDieldrin 10000 0 005 0 007 0 000 0 000 0 001 0 001 0 001 0 011 0 0 033 0 152 NoncanHazardPCBs 10000 1 277 1678 0 019 0 068 0134 0 196 0 374 0 p 2 857 8 326 35 229 SedLinkChlordanes 10000 0 21 0 04 010 013 015 0 16 lt 0 26 0 32 0 44 SedLinkDDTs 10000 0 56 0 11 027 035 040 043 y 3 0 70 088 1 14 SedLinkDieldrin 10000 0 33 0 06 O16 0 21 0 23 0 25 3 0 41 0 51 0 68 SedLinkPCBs 10000 0 44 0 09 020 028 032 034 E 0 056 060 069 096 _ lt Food Web Calculations Example Simulation Output Example CFD Output lt Simulation Output 1 cFD dij 4 Figure 6 Simulation Output worksheet indicating the threshold percentiles for consumption risk and sediment contribution For illustration the assessment percentile cells are highlighted in color
4. categories 1 Unimpacted 2 Likely Unimpacted 3 Possibly Impacted 4 Likely Impacted 5 Clearly Impacted Using Simulation Output worksheet It is also possible to examine detailed results of the MCS on the Simulation Output worksheet and manually compare results to the thresholds The Simulation Output sheet contains more detailed information on the results at a range of distribution percentiles However the numerical results shown on the Simulation Output worksheet are not initially formatted in a useful way Because cancer risk values are much lower than 1 they should be displayed in scientific notation To view and correctly interpret the results on the Simulation Worksheet the user should change the way Excel formats the numbers for cancer risk The mean standard deviation and percentiles for cancer risk rows 12 15 in Figure 6 should be converted to scientific notation In Excel 2003 this is achieved in the following six steps 1 Select appropriate cells on the sheet cells D12 P15 2 Click the Format pulldown menu 3 Select Cells 4 Select the Number tab 5 Select Scientific 6 Click OK 10 Wiscivore aa 2Benthic diet shpi 0 m 0 38 162 20 58 3Benthic and p White croaker P s3 Shiner perch Seme maoeae p 08 tae fem fam fit po par p sese P ur Poses Benthic with herbivo 0 P 1 E Peau ndpeoge A A A E _ E SPelagicwithbenthicY 0 FF 7o r Daily seaf
5. macro should take less than 5 seconds to complete The resulting BAFs for all summed compounds will be found in the Input worksheet cells N4 Q11 Note macros must be enabled for the macro to work If typing Ctrl R results in no change most likely macros are disabled Refer to the Appendix for instructions to reset macro security in Excel 2003 Perform Monte Carlo Simulation Once the BAFs have been calculated a Monte Carlo Simulation MCS is performed to develop the data needed for an assessment outcome To perform the simulation click Tools gt YASAI simulation A simulation menu box should appear Figure 4 In the simulation box change Sample Size to 10 000 All other options may be kept as defaults These values should be the same as shown in the grey box in Figure 4 Then click the Simulate button which will begin the MCS Note that the sensitivity analysis option does not function in this version This simulation will take approximately 1 minute to complete on typical computers using Excel 2003 and the settings above described For slower computers if multiple other processes are running or settings have been changed it may take longer to run During the time the simulation is running the statistical distributions in the consumption risk cancer risk and noncancer hazard and sediment contribution equations are resampled 10 000 times and the key results are stored and summarized After the MCS is completed three new worksh
6. organic carbon is entered in cell D21 Figure 2 Optional water column parameters if available are entered into cells D22 D27 of the Input sheet If local values are not readily available the statewide default values included in the sheet are used Optional parameters include e Dissolved organic carbon content of water kg L e Particulate organic carbon content of water kg L e Mean water temperature C e Salinity PSU e Dissolved oxygen concentration mg 07 L e Suspended solid concentration in water column kg L 5 Run models Once data are entered the site specific bioaccumulation factor is calculated using a macro based on the food web model included in the DST After the bioaccumulation factor is calculated probability distributions are determined for consumption risk and sediment contribution This is achieved by Monte Carlo Simulation MCS which is performed using the YASAlw Add In In order for the results to be correct the bioaccumulation factor must be calculated prior to running the MCS Calculate bioaccumulation factor The bioaccumulation factor BAF is calculated using an Excel macro that runs a food web model sequentially for each contaminant compound and records the results for each guild Type Ctrl R to run the food web model macro The macro then calculates BAF for all compounds Screen will rapidly flicker as it runs through the Contaminant Specific sheet This is normal The
7. the consumption risk and sediment contribution indicator Sum contaminant concentrations in seafood are included in the equation to calculate consumption risk Similarly sum contaminant concentrations in seafood and sediment are included in the equations that calculate sediment linkage For seafood contamination data sum PCBs sum DDTs sum chlordanes and dieldrin are entered on the Input worksheet These sums are entered into appropriate cells for each guild and contaminant class in the cell range F4 M11 Figure 2 The arithmetic average mean and standard error of the mean SE calculated in Section should be entered into the corresponding labeled columns For species guilds not included the cells should be left blank For sediment contamination data contaminant totals are entered in the appropriate cells F15 M15 of the Input worksheet Figure 2 This includes concentrations mean and SE of sum chlordanes dieldrin sum DDTs and sum PCBs found in site sediment es e TE ee e o e r s9 31 se tote e e a rr m 2o fis is ee eee 182 ahaa se 03 es ne 42 as 42 wz fou ae os 10 06 Sea Ee 053 Ea ma Eea EEE ae ee ee EI A gt bi Input Simulation Summary Contaminant Specfic MCS Default Parameters Food Web Cakulations 4 Figure 2 Input worksheet The left hand side of the figure illustrates selection of a species within appropriate guild Enter ancil
8. to the right or below the results section of the worksheet Do not delete or modify any cells outside of the main portion of the worksheet as you may modify the cell references or the contents of these cells and cause the DST to malfunction 2 Organization of the Decision Support Tool The DST contains five main worksheets for input and calculations Figure 1 and additional worksheets that summarize and plot the results After simulations are complete the DST will contain additional worksheets that include simulation results Figure 1 grey boxes e Input The Input worksheet is where the user enters site specific data Data entered into the Input sheet include the seafood species analyzed each species proportion within the consumer diet and lipid content the total contaminant concentrations in seafood and sediment site size and water and sediment chemistry parameters e Contaminant Specific The Contaminant Specific sheet is where the user enters individual compound concentrations for the water column if available and for sediment and where chemical partitioning calculations are performed based on compound specific attributes e Default Parameters The Default Parameters sheet contains various fixed parameters used in calculating health risk sediment linkage and bioaccumulation modeling e Food Web Calculations The Food Web Calculations sheet employs the user input and default parameters to calculate
9. 8 8 o K o b k o 8 42 LERZ Assessment Summary Consumption Risk Plot_ Sediment Linkage Plot MCS Default Parameters Figure 8 Plot of sediment linkage distribution 14 Appendix Set up instructions and troubleshooting for Decision Support Tool and Add In The first time that the Decision Support Tool DST and YASAIw Monte Carlo Simulation Add In are installed on a new computer four issues must be checked and resolved for the DST to function properly These are each handled in this Appendix Note The DST spreadsheet was developed in Microsoft Excel 2003 Except where noted otherwise this Appendix assumes that Microsoft Excel 2003 is the chosen platform Although menu commands here designated in talics will differ for Excel 2007 and Excel 2010 the spreadsheet should be fully functional in these versions However the MCS Add In will not function in Excel 2000 or earlier versions of Excel Configure Microsoft Excel security For the DST to work properly it is necessary to establish a lower macro security setting In Excel 2003 1 Open the DST spreadsheet file 2 Click Tools gt Macro gt Security 3 Select security level medium or low 4 Save the file 5 Next time the file is opened the macro will work In Excel 2010 Developer gt Macros Security select Enable all macros click OK Note Upon opening the workbook a warning message may appear indicating that the sheet c
10. Figure 2 Appropriate species are selected from the corresponding guild Table 2 contains a list of appropriate species data entry cells and the corresponding guilds For example if the chosen species is white seabass it is chosen from the menu in cell B5 corresponding to the Benthic diet with piscivory guild It will not be found in the other cell menus For guilds that have no species monitored at the site the user should leave the cells blank If a candidate species is not listed in Table 2 the user should first determine whether the species is appropriate for SQO evaluation and which dietary guild describes it feeding characteristics If the species is appropriate for analysis then the user may select the Other category in the appropriate guild for that species It should be noted that species selection on the pull down menus does not influence assessment outcome listing of the species simply aids in organizing information for the user However the guilds that are used in the assessment i e which rows have data entered may influence the assessment outcome by affecting the bioaccumulation factor used in sediment contribution calculation Also note that the foraging range for each dietary guild is based on the preferred indicator species for each guild This range does not change depending on the species name selected and may not be representative of nonindicator species Table 2 Appropriate finfish species for use
11. User s guide for Human Health SQO Decision Support Tool DST Version SQO DST_10 6_5 xls September 27 2013 1 Summary The Decision Support Tool DST is an Excel workbook that performs the Tier Il SQO site assessment This guide describes the key steps needed to perform a Tier II standardized assessment with the DST Before using the DST the user should be advised that the DST does not perform all data steps needed to perform the assessment The DST performs the modeling and simulation analyses unique to the Tier II assessment The DST also assigns categories for consumption risk sediment linkage and overall site assessment based on thresholds for these indicators The user must compile and summarize the contamination and site data prior to using the DST The distributed version of the DST includes hypothetical sample data and should be usable for demonstration purposes without the user being required to add their own data Section 2 describes the organization of the DST and the remaining sections describe the steps for using the installing and using the DST Please note that there is no protection of the cells in this version of the DST Be very careful when looking at cells other than those designated for user input as copy paste actions or an inadvertent key stroke or deletion can unintentionally change critical values or formulas that will affect the function of the DST Some of the output cells in the DST make reference to hidden cells
12. ake sure that they have been successfully replaced The following cells should be checked a Input sheet C30 F32 b MCS sheet D4 G8 and B19 G26 8 This should have fixed all YASAIw functionality If there are still problems review troubleshooting sections above DM 16
13. al iterations gt acs aa Smuate Cancel YASAI Version v2 0w27 Figure 4 Set up window for Monte Carlo Simulation 6 Interpret results The SQO assessment is based on the percentile results of the MCS This is achieved by obtaining key results from the Simulation Output worksheet and comparing these results to thresholds as described in this section The Assessment Summary worksheet automates this process Using the Assessment Summary worksheet The Assessment Summary worksheet is designed to summarize key SQO assessment results from the MCS Rows 1 to 28 of this sheet contains a summary of user input parameters and thresholds for the consumption risk and sediment contribution The lower portion of the sheet Model results contains summary information from the MCS results and generates a site assessment outcome The Assessment Summary does not automatically update with the most current results To generate summary information for the current MCS analysis simply enter the name of the Simulation Output worksheet from the most recent simulation into cell A32 and the name of the corresponding CFD Output into cell B32 of the worksheet Figure 5 For each compound the simulation results for the key threshold percentiles are listed along with the indicator category outcome and final site category e Consumption risk or sediment linkage categories 1 Very Low 2 Low 3 Moderate and 4 High e Site
14. eets are produced Simulation Output 1 summarizes the simulation including the mean standard deviation and percentiles of the results for cancer risk noncancer hazard and sediment linkage All information needed to perform the assessment may be found on this page CFD Output 1 presents the entire cumulative frequency distribution i e the percentiles for each result It can be examined to determine what portion of the population exceeds various values Iterations Output 1 contains the results of each MCS iteration This is essentially the raw data that the MCS produces which is then summarized in the other worksheets If additional simulations are performed additional worksheet pages with sequential numeric labels are added e g Simulation Output 2 etc Further information on the simulation output pages may be found in the YASAIw User s Manual Pelletier 2009 On the output pages results are presented under abbreviated headers The header CancerRiskX indicates the cancer to seafood consumers from exposure to compound X where X is chlordanes DDTs dieldrin or PCBs NoncanHazardx indicates the noncancer hazard to seafood consumers from exposure to compound X SedLinkxX indicates the sediment contribution to seafood tissue concentrations of compound X LT ii x H _ TY same random number tember ofScenenos S FF Sed tx omc corer Random number seed SetTo I Write output of
15. go Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Se orita Benthic diet with herbivory B9 Shiner perch Benthic and pelagic diet without piscivory B8 Spotfin croaker Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Spotted sand bass Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Starry flounder Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Striped mullet Pelagic diet with benthic herbivory B11 Striped seaperch Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Topsmelt Benthic and pelagic diet with herbivory B10 Walleye surfperch Benthic diet without piscivory B7 White catfish Benthic diet with piscivory B5 White croaker Benthic diet without piscivory B7 White seabass Benthic diet with piscivory B5 White seaperch Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Yellowfin croaker Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Enter the proportion of the human seafood consumer diet for each guild For each guild the proportion of the human seafood consumer diet is entered The proportion of the human seafood consumer diet should sum up to 1 0 i e 100 For guilds having no monitored species enter 0 In cases where consumer survey information on dietary proportions by mass is sufficient to determine relative proportion consumed among the different seafood species varying proportions may be used For example if two species are chosen and one species constitutes 80 of the seafood consumer diet by mass enter 0 8 for that species and 0 2 for the other species For cases where local dietary proportion data are not available estimates based on state
16. iment linkage factor Similar to the consumption risk plot enter the name of the current CFD Output sheet in cell B3 and the plot will be automatically updated Results for each contaminant class are shown in a different color along with the provisional threshold of 0 5 The sediment linkage indicator category is determined by the percentile at which the linkage factor equals or exceeds 0 5 which is represented by the colored box where the plot line crosses the vertical dashed threshold line Columns N R show the individual percentile values for reference same values as on the specified output worksheet o a Sediment Linkage f Cumulative Proportion SedLinkChlordanes Sed 0 0 10425 0 01 0 12910 0 02 0 13619 0 03 0 14130 0 04 0 14465 0 05 0 14709 0 06 0 14991 0 07 0 15211 0 15411 0 09 0 15585 0 10 0 15745 0 11 0 15886 0 12 0 16032 0 13 0 16202 0 14 0 16359 0 15 0 16497 0 16 0 16609 0 17 0 16746 0 18 0 16866 0 19 0 16984 0 20 0 17110 0 21 0 17240 0 22 0 17346 0 23 0 17471 0 24 0 17565 0 25 0 17676 0 26 0 17793 0 27 0 17886 0 28 0 18011 0 29 0 18121 15 J 0 30 0 18217 Sediment Linkage Factor 0 31 0 18306 0 32 0 18393 SedLinkChlordanes SedlinkDOTs SedLink Dieldrin SedLinkPcas 0 33 0 18487 0 34 0 18590 Sediment threshold 25 50 75 0 35 0 18675 0 36 0 18769 0 37 0 18863 0 38 0 18939 1 39 r 19052 Sediment Linkage Graph zoonona wn Cumubtive Proportion 5 9 p o p 6 S 8 8 3
17. in SQO assessment DST and the corresponding guild and selection cell on the Input sheet Preferred guild indicator species are underlined Guild species Dietary guild Entry Cell Barred sand bass Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Barred surfperch Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Bat ray Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Black perch Benthic and pelagic diet without piscivory B8 Black rockfish Benthic and pelagic diet with piscivory B6 Blue rockfish Benthic and pelagic diet with piscivory B6 Bonefish Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Brown rockfish Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Brown smoothhound Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Cabezon Benthic diet with piscivory B5 California halibut Piscivore B4 Channel catfish Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Common carp Benthic diet with herbivory B9 Dwarf perch Benthic and pelagic diet without piscivory B8 English sole Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Fantail sole Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Grass rockfish Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Kelp bass Benthic and pelagic diet with piscivory B6 Leopard shark Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Lingcod Piscivore B4 Monkeyface prickleback Benthic diet with herbivory B9 Other Any B4 B11 Pacific angel shark Piscivore B4 Pacific sanddab Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Pile perch Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Queenfish Benthic and pelagic diet with piscivory B6 Redtail surfperch Benthic diet with piscivory B5 Rubberlip seaperch Benthic diet without piscivory B7 Sar
18. lary parameters on Input worksheet Lipid content of target seafood species percent of total wet weight are entered into cells E4 E11 for all species monitored Lipid data should be checked very carefully because MS Excel sometimes unexpectedly rescales percentage data e g converting 0 15 to 15 Two parameters pertaining to site size are entered to calculate site use factor Area of site km is entered in cell D19 Length of site km along the longest axis is entered in cell D20 Porewater Observed Observed Observed Concentration tee Metabolic Contaminant Sediment Surface Water Porewater Surface Water Surface Water Observed or corrected Contaminant class Concentration pg L in pg Lin unfiltered unfiltered sample cis Chiordane _ Chlordanes 5 trans Chlordane Chlordanes cis Nonachlor__ Chlordanes trans Nonachlor Chlordanes Oxychlordane __ Chlordanes Dieldrin Other pesticide 10 op DDD DDTs 11 op DDE DDTs 12 op DDT DDTs 13 pp DDD DDTs 14 pp DDE DDTs 15 pp DDT DDTs 16 PCB8 PCBs 17 PCB 18 PCBs 18 PCB 28 PCBs 19 PCB 31 PCBs 20 PCB 33 PCBs 21 PCB 44 PCBs 22 PCB 49 PCBs 23 PCB 52 PCBs Figure 3 Contaminant specific sediment data entry For individual compounds available contaminant data are entered into the blue cells columns C D and E of the Contaminant Specific sheet here illustrated Sediment
19. ontains macros Select Enable macros to achieve full functionality Confirm YASAIw Add In has been correctly installed The YASAIw Add In must have been installed in the right windows location In Excel 2003 this can be assessed by selecting Tools gt Add Ins YASAIw should be on the list and checked Check it if it is on the list but not checked click OK If this fails check to see that YASAIw xla is actually in the Add In folder Tools gt Add Ins gt Browse The Add In should be there If it is not it will be necessary to exit Excel and manually place it there from wherever it was originally downloaded When Y ASAIw is correctly installed Y ASAI Simulation and Y ASAI Charts will appear in the Tools menu Additionally cells C30 to F32 in the Input worksheet will contain numeric values rather than NAME or other error messages For additional troubleshooting options if needed refer to the YASAIw User s Manual Pelletier 2009 that is provided with the YASAIw Add In installation 15 Confirm macros are enabled Upon opening the workbook a warning message may appear indicating that the sheet contains macros Select Enable macros to achieve full functionality Update links to YASAIw Add In For functionality of the Monte Carlo Simulations Excel must recognize and update the links to the YASAIw Add In Link updating is generally required when a YASAI based spreadsheet is moved between two computer
20. ood consumption rate CR kgd I Cancer Risk Threshold 10E 05 Area of Site SA km i Noncancer Hazard Threshold 1 Sediment Linkage Threshold oso ds to the CFD Output Sheet Note Yellow coloring indicates exceeding the threshold Oe Category Below Compound Indicator 28 50 75 95 Outcome Threshold 4 5 6 7 g 3 0 n R B 6 6 n 8 8 20 a 22 23 24 25 26 2 28 29 30 Ki 32 B Chlordanes Site Assessment Outcome Cancer Pisk T t0E 06 20E 06 Noncancer Hazard 000 om oo Sediment Linkag 0 318 o363 Site Assessment Outcome Cancer Risk i Noncancer Hazard Sediment Linkage 0 382 Site Assessment Outcome 153 n 4 gt bt Input Contaminant Specific __ Assessment Summary lt Consumption Risk Graph Sediment Linkage Graph Ready 2 Figure 5 Model results on the Assessment Summary worksheet Correct model results are obtained by entering the name of a Simulation Output worksheet into purple cell A32 and the name of the CFD Output sheet into cell B32 In this example the results for an Example Simulation are summarized 11 A YASAlw Simulation Output Workbook SQO DST_YASAI Version v2 0w29 Use Same Seed Yes Start Date 6 28 2011 Random Number 56199 Start Time 3 36 38 PM Run Time h mm ss 0 04 17 Scenarios 1 Sample Size 10000 CONMMNSwWNH Percentiles Standard Deviatio Output Name Scenario Observations Mean n 0 1 5 10 25
21. pon performing the MCS as described in the text User Input Parameters to the Decision Support Tool The DST allows user entry of multiple parameters based on local data Some parameters should be locally obtained while standardized or default values based on analysis of statewide data included in the tool may be used for other parameters A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine which parameters most strongly influence the outcome of the SQO indicators The sensitivity analysis and information regarding the relative difficulty of estimating particular parameters were used to determine which parameters should be determined locally in Tier II assessment Table 1 lists which parameters should be obtained locally and which may use statewide values in the analysis Table1 Source of parameter values input into the DST Statewide standardized value provided with the DST Local site specific value obtained using local data Parameter Source of data Seafood contaminant concentration Local Seafood consumption rate Statewide or optional local Cooking reduction factor Statewide Exposure duration Statewide Body weight Statewide Sediment concentration Local Seafood lipid Local Seafood foraging range Statewide for each dietary guild Sediment TOC Local Proportion of seafood in human diet Statewide or optional local Temperature Statewide or optional local Suspended sediment concentration Statewide or optional local Par
22. s having YASAIw installed in different locations in the file system Upon opening the workbook Excel may display the message that it contains automatic links to another workbook and may ask if the user wants to update the links YASAI should automatically repair the links regardless of the user s choice If linking is unsuccessful some spreadsheet formulas may contain strings like C Documents and Settings USER Y ASAL xla E g cells C30 to F32 of the Input worksheet If this occurs try the following method to fix these strings It is possible to manually delete these strings with Excel s Replace function for YASAIw to start working normally again The following steps would be performed to accomplish this 1 Begin by opening a fresh copy of the DST 2 For cell C32 and all other monte carlo simulation cells something like the following will be displayed in the formula toolbar C Users Ben A ppData Roaming Microsoft AddIns Y ASAIw xla simoutput MCS D29 SedLinkChlordanes 3 Select the contents of the string up to and including the portion YASAIw xla Note that in the example above this is all bold 4 Edit gt Replace or type ctrl h Copy the string in bold and place it in the Find what cell Keep the Replace with cell blank Click the Options button and change the within option from sheet to workbook Click the Replace all button 7 Manually check all cells and m
23. sediment contribution to seafood contamination based on the assumption that some of the sediment contamination will transfer to the water column and porewater following equilibrium partitioning If empirical water column or porewater data are entered they will be used in the BAF calculation This may be compared to results using sediment contamination data alone to further evaluate the contribution from site sediment However the Tier II SQO assessment should be based on calculations using the sediment contamination data only i e keeping the water column cells blank It is appropriate to use the DST even when some contamination data are missing or below detection Only available data should be entered for missing data cells should be left blank If some individual compounds are missing the BAF will be calculated based on available compounds In order for the BAF to be calculated for a particular compound class PCBs DDTs chlordanes or dieldrin individual results for at least one compound in that class must be included Although concentrations are entered for each constituent the average BAF calculations for each class are influenced by the relative proportion of constituents in each compound class so it is important that the data indicate the relative abundance of each constituent that is representative of the site Enter contamination data for sum compounds on Input worksheet Sum contaminant data are key input parameters for both
24. ter a number of issues must be checked and resolved for the DST to function properly Instructions are provided in the Appendix that should be followed for four issues 1 Configure Excel Macro security 2 Confirm YASAlw Add In has been correctly installed 3 Confirm macros are enabled 4 Update links to YASAlw Add In 4 Set Up the Analysis The DST is currently set up to perform a Tier II SQO assessment The Tier Il assessment is based on a combination of statewide and site specific data and assumptions After opening the DST the user enters the site specific data into the appropriate cells of the DST spreadsheet The steps are as follows Open a new copy of the DST The DST stores input data from a single site To prevent overwriting and potential loss of data it is recommended that each analysis be conducted using a separate copy of the DST The spreadsheets are color coded as follows are areas for user data entry Green cells are variables and calculations are default parameters defined for the worksheet Purplelcelisiare outputs of individual Monte Carlo Simulation events Enter the data and select default parameters Select appropriate species from seafood species and guild menus in the Input worksheet The user should enter data for between one and eight species each representing a different feeding guild Species selection is organized using pull down menus contained within cells B4 and B11 on the Input worksheet
25. the bioaccumulation factor for each contaminant class and food web component e MCS Once the bioaccumulation factor has been calculated Monte Carlo Simulation MCS is performed based on equations in the MCS sheet After the MCS is complete a number of additional sheets are automatically created containing the results of the MCS These sheets consist of 1 Iterations Output which lists the outcome of each iteration of the simulation 2 CFD Output which lists the results for each percentile of the iterations output and 3 Simulation Output which is a tabular summary of the MCS results that includes summary statistics and values for specific percentiles Each time a new MCS is performed an additional set of three worksheets is created Note The DST was developed in Microsoft Excel 2003 This User s Guide assumes that Microsoft Excel 2003 is the chosen platform Although menu commands here designated in talics will differ for Excel 2007 and Excel 2010 the spreadsheet should be fully functional in these versions However the MCS Add In will not function in Excel 2000 or earlier versions of Excel a 2s Simulation Output Iterations Output M M Figure 1 Organization of the Decision Support Tool DST Each colored box indicates a separate worksheet and arrows indicate equations linking the worksheets The grey boxes with dotted borders show the additional worksheets that are produced u
26. ticulate organic carbon Statewide or optional local Salinity Statewide or optional local Dissolved oxygen Statewide or optional local Dissolved organic carbon Statewide or optional local Seafood weight Statewide These parameters are varied as probability distributions in the Tier Il assessment All other parameters are treated as point estimates 3 Install Monte Carlo Simulation MCS Add In The DST performs stochastic simulations using Monte Carlo Simulation To make the DST fully functional a free Excel Add In YASAlw must be installed The YASAlw Add In was developed by Greg Pelletier Washington Department of Ecology gpel461 ecy wa gov based on software originally developed by Jonathan Eckstein and Steven T Riedmueller Rutgers University A copy of the Add In is included in the zip file with the DST distribution The Add In is also available for download from http www ecy wa gov programs eap models html The Add In comes with a pdf document Pelletier 2009 here referred to as the YASAlw User s Manual Once the zip file is downloaded and opened installation instructions found on page 2 of the User s Manual should be followed The YASAIw User s Manual Pelletier 2009 also contains helpful information about the Add In In particular pages 13 through 17 contain additional information about running simulations the charting tools and troubleshooting The first time that the DST and YASAlw Add In are installed on a new compu
27. ts aids in judging the amount of variability of the results and the 12 possibility of exceeding the threshold which could aid in management decisions For the convenience of the user two sheets are included that contain pre formatted plots of cancer risk and sediment linkage Figures 7 and 8 These plots have been designed so that they can be easily updated with the results of the most recent analysis in a manner similar to the Assessment Summary Plotting Cancer Risk The Consumption Risk Plot worksheet contains a cumulative distribution plot of cancer risk Enter the name of the current CFD Output sheet in cell B3 and the plot will be automatically updated Results for each contaminant class are shown ina different color along with the provisional threshold of 10 The cancer risk indicator category is determined by the percentile at which cancer risk equals or exceeds 10 which is represented by the colored box where the plot line crosses the vertical dashed threshold line Columns N R show the individual percentile values for reference same values as on the specified output worksheet Cancer risk generally represents a greater health risk than noncancer hazard for DDTs PCBs chlordanes and dieldrin Therefore the cancer risk category represents the consumption risk indicator category N o Consumption Risk Cumulative Proportion CancerRiskChlordanes CancerRiskDDTs 0 1 0852E 08 1 5058E 08 0 01 3 6652E 08 5 3427E 08 0 02
28. wide data or an assumption of equal proportions can be entered e g for three species enter a value of 0 333 to represent equal proportions Enter contamination data for individual compounds on Contaminant Specific worksheet Individual sediment contaminant data i e results for individual PCB congeners DDT metabolites and chlordane compounds are entered on the Contaminant Specific worksheet of the DST These data influence the bioaccumulation factor because different contaminants have different chemical properties Individual data are always entered for the sediment Figure 3 column C Individual contaminant results are needed for sediment because the bioaccumulation factor varies and is calculated based on the physical properties of each individual compound Because bioaccumulation factor BAF calculations are based on the mechanistic model in the tool and not empirical tissue data individual compound results are not needed for tissue contamination If available individual contaminant data may also be entered for the water column and for sediment porewater Figure 3 columns D and E However this is only done to help understand the effect of observed water concentrations on model outcome The Tier II SQO assessment is based on sediment and tissue chemistry data alone Specifically the DST estimates water column or porewater concentrations based on equilibrium partitioning from the sediment This results in a calculation of
Download Pdf Manuals
Related Search