October 2007 Number 47
Contents
1. So if you have not played Superfectas in the past because the wagers cost too much this year may well be the time to give the wager a try Reminders Here are three recommendations we make every year regarding Breeder s Cup races These recommendations just keep working year after year Pro actively look for surprises Virtually all entrants in Breeder s Cup races are high class high speed horses with a good chance of finishing in the top four But as the payoffs show many of the top four finishers are a surprise to the public Do not over handicap for the winning horse We recommend spending just a little time looking for the 2 or 3 primary candidates to win the race and invest most of your time identifying reasons why the favorite may not win and identifying the horses that will likely do better than the public expects by finishing in the top four Play larger than usual Exacta Trifecta and Superfecta Wagers We think it is wise to focus on the possible large Exacta Trifecta and Superfecta payoffs and to spend more on these wagers on Breeder s Cup day than you would normally spend during the rest of the year The ten cent Superfectas will make this easier in 2007 About Monmouth Park The track configuration at Monmouth Park is pretty standard with a one mile dirt track and a seven furlong turf course A new dirt track surface was completed in time for the 2007 meet at Monmouth Park which ran from May 12 through September 2nd Trac2. 5 million The Official race order will be announced October 16th Ho Hum Major Profit Opportunities As you can see from the chart below the payoffs in last year s Breeder s Cup run at Churchill Downs were as usual outstanding The Breeder s Cup seems to always come through with a day full of big profit opportunities Breeder s Cup 2 Payoffs Churchill Downs 2006 Race Win Exacta Trifecta Super Distaff 29 80 446 4 355 38 595 Juv Fillies 7 20 51 598 9 380 Mile 50 60 246 4 782 98 585 Sprint 33 20 955 10 612 113 912 F amp M Turf 4 80 33 121 262 Juvenile 32 40 182 996 3 916 Turf 23 60 451 2 502 32 038 Classic 15 40 40 695 8 786 When we look at all Breeder s Cup races run from 2000 through 2006 here is what we find 38 of 56 68 Win Payoffs over 10 40 of 56 71 Exacta Payoffs over 100 36 of 56 64 Trifecta Payoffs over 1 000 34 of 50 68 Superfecta Payoffs over 5 000 This shows us that approximately two thirds of all Breeder s Cup races run since 2000 provided outstanding profit opportunities playing win Exacta Trifecta and Superfecta wagers As you can imagine by looking at the win payoffs many Daily Doubles Pick 3s and Pick 4s have been large as well which only adds to our opportunities Note See ALL Ways Newsletters 39 and 43 for more BC payoff information 10 cent Superfectas in 2007 We have just confirmed that there will be 10 cent Superfecta wagering at this year s Breeder s Cup
3. automatically control the entire process in the Handicapping Module You can generate all your handicapping information in a matter of just a couple of minutes for an entire race card Note You can also view ALL Ways handicapping reports on screen Summary Start at Level ONE and start building your database for the tracks you play Then move up to level TWO to make use of your databases You can stop here and get a lot of benefit from ALL Ways Or you can move up to Level THREE to take more control of the software and to perform all kinds of analyses Finally you can move up to Level FOUR and use the most powerful handicapping and wagering tools in the industry what we like to think of as the Pot of gold at the end of the rainbow At this point you have truly moved From novice to expert at a reasonable pace ALL Ways Version 14 0 ALL Ways Version 14 is all about handicapping races on All Weather Surface tracks such as Poly surfaces Below we briefly discuss three groups of new features namely 1 New handicapping information and tools 2 New analysis capabilities 3 Automatic and retroactive features Note that we refer to All Weather Surfaces as AWS New Handicapping Information and Tools e New information is included about how horses have performed on AWS in general and at today s specific AWS track This includes many new handicapping factors such as BRIS AWS Speed 2 3 and best BRIS AWS Speed at today s trac
4. on the lead or within 2 lengths Monmouth Park 2nd Call Beaten Lengths Turf Routes 1 2 3 4 5 Win 46 20 10 11 6 7 As expected the track bias on the turf shifts to be more kind to closers Finding the Big Payoffs We are going to summarize things and be a bit brief here to avoid repetition with prior newsletters We strongly suggest reading the Breeder s Cup articles in ALL Ways Newsletters for October 2005 39 and October 2006 43 They include much detail behind this set of recommendations The concepts shown below work year after year after year There are two big and consistent reasons why the payoffs are almost always large on Breeder s Cup day and they have to do with the very unique nature of the Breeder s Cup races Foreign Horses One reason for big payoffs has to do with the performance of foreign horses that surprise the public particularly in the turf races There are three things to help you in this area One is to make sure you are armed with the BRIS TimeForm Ratings Second is to look for foreign horses on Lasix for the first time The third thing and perhaps most important is to look at the BRIS Class Ratings and BRIS Race Ratings available for most foreign horses A 2 point differential in BRIS Class or Race Rating is very significant If a foreign horse has been running in lower class races it will most likely have trouble handling the high class level of Breeder s Cup races You can compare the BRIS R
5. races run before the industry started identify these AWS races You can instruct ALL Ways to automatically delete and or undelete real dirt races from your Race Databases giving you the option for a pure Race Database with only turf races and AWS races We recommend you immediately download and install ALL Ways Version 14 0 from the ALL Ways Free Software page on BRIS Web site We will not initially post a complete new User Manual Instead you can print out the short addendum to the Version 13 5 User Manual A new Version 14 0 User Manual is in the works and will be posted later this year ALL Ways Home Page Copyright 2007 Frandsen Publishing Corporation PO Box 1439 Minnetonka MN 55345 All Rights Reserved How to contact Frandsen Publishing Phone 952 937 9180 E Mail FrandsenPublishing Comcast net Website www frandsen com Be sure to check the What s New page on our Website for the latest announcements and alerts
6. October 2007 Number 47 ALL Ways NEWSLETTER Inside This Newsletter The 2007 Breeder s Cup at Monmouth Park ALL Ways Multi Level Software e Level FOUR The Ultimate Handicapping Tools ALL Ways Version 14 0 Announcements Version 14 0 Released ALL Ways Version 14 0 Professional Edition software will soon be available for downloading on the ALL Ways Free Software page on the BRIS Web site at www brisnet com This new version of ALL Ways software provides ALL Ways handicappers with a major advantage when playing tracks having all weather surfaces such as Poly tracks Please see the short article on page 4 of this newsletter for more information And remember ALL Ways Professional Edition software is now free for all BRIS customers Breeder s Cup Handicapping Profiles Special ALL Ways Handicapping Profiles for this year s Breeder s Cup at Monmouth Park have been posted for downloading in the User s Corner of the Frandsen Publishing Web site at www frandsen com As always these Handicapping Profiles are free Please see the Breeder s Cup article below for more information A Reminder There are several references in this newsletter to prior issues of ALL Ways Newsletters All ALL Ways Newsletters are posted on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and they are free The 2007 Breeder s Cup at Monmouth Park The 24th running of the Breeder s Cup World Championship will be run at Monmouth Park during late October of 2007 Monmou
7. R are simply not available from any other source in the industry They give you powerful insight for your handicapping and wagering and they help you automate much of your handicapping process Read on and you will see why we almost titled Level FOUR as the proverbial Pot of Gold at the End of the Rainbow We are going to organize our discussion of Level FOUR features as follows Gap Analysis Custom Search Definitions Wager Tickets and Analyses Other Key Level FOUR Features freee ee 1 Gap Analysis There are two different kinds of Gap Analysis in ALL Ways The Gap Advantage Analysis shows how well horses perform based on the size Gap of their advantage for each handicapping factor The Gap Deficiency Analysis shows how a horse s performance declines based on the size of its Gap disadvantage Here is an example of Gap Advantage for high caliber dirt sprints at Monmouth Park Horses with a one point Gap advantage for the BRIS Speed Last Race handicapping factor win 38 of their races with a flat bet win profit ROI of 1 and they finish in the money 74 of the time Horses with a two point Gap advantage see their win percentage rise to 42 with a win profit ROI of 11 and an in the money percentage of 84 With a three point Gap advantage the win percentage rises to a whopping 54 with a 48 win profit ROI and in the money performance of 88 We could go on and on and on with examples When you click the button in the ALL Ways A
8. ace Ratings for foreign horse past performance races to the ALL Ways Race Ratings for today s race Pace Considerations By far the biggest source of high payoffs on Breeder s Cup day is the high percentage of good closers that finish in the top four Here are some bullet points to explain this phenomenon e Many BC races are identified by ALL Ways as having an EEE Race Pace Shape indicating there are three or more Early E horses Four of the BC races at Churchill Downs last year were EEE races and one was an EE race These races set up for the best closers to do well e Even Honest Pace races are run with somewhat fast early speed due simply to the high caliber of the horses that are competing e Most of the horses running are the very best in the world But they are facing the toughest competition they have ever faced and often have trouble finishing the race in the strong fashion they usually experience All of this really helps the high priced closers P and S horses The very best E horses and good EP horses are able to hang on for a piece of the race But the big prices are generally due to high priced closers finishing in the top four Even though the dirt track bias at Monmouth Park heavily favors early running horses the nature of Breeder s Cup races will mitigate this and the closers will do well often at big prices So our recommendations for finding the high priced ho
9. inations to find the most powerful and profitable factor sets You can run the Angle Assistant and then automatically generate the very best Search Definitions 3 Wager Tickets and Wager Analysis A Built In Electronic Teller Module in Level FOUR is where you can cost and create your pseudo wagers just like you do at the track using an automated teller machine You simply use your mouse button There is no manual data entry Even results are entered automatically including payoffs and refunds You can also print out the wagers to use at the track for reference when making your real wagers The Wager Races Analysis Module provides some very useful wagering reports The Wager Accounting Report maintains financial records of your wagers The comprehensive Wager Type Reports show how well your wagers have worked based on the type Win Exacta Pick 4 etc and structure straight boxed Key Horse etc of your wagers These analyses can be run for any combination of tracks and any combination of race types 4 Other Key Level FOUR Features For those so inclined the Export Function lets you export ALL Ways key handicapping data and results for importing into other spreadsheet and database software programs such as Microsoft Excel The Handicapping Session Template lets you define which Handicapping Profiles you want to use and which Handicapping Reports you want to print for each fundamental race type ALL Ways then uses this template to
10. k e Many new improvements have been made to ALL Ways software s automatic Pace Line selection including adding an AWS component e All past performance races for every horse reflects if the track surface was real dirt or AWS e Individual horse s AWS performance statistics as well as AWS speed figures have been added to the Contender Summary Report and the Spot Play Final Process Report e An entire AWS section has been added to the Suitability Report e New AWS speed factors can be used on the Top 10 Ranking Report Another major new handicapping tool is the ability to create special Handicapping Profiles aimed directly at AWS races They can be created manually or the MRA Custom feature can be used to create them automatically New Analysis Capabilities Race Screens for segmenting races in your Race Databases can be set for AWS surface only or Real Dirt only or both This lets you run all the analyses functions in ALL Ways for these specific race types This includes the Impact Value Analysis the Top 3 Analysis the Gap Analyses all the Database Run analyses the Angle Assistant the testing of Custom Search Definitions the forward looking analyses and the Wager Ticket analyses Automatic and Retroactive Features ALL Ways will automatically generate new track pars and track to track adjustments You can also instruct ALL Ways to automatically and retroactively mark all prior AWS races in your Race Databases even for
11. k management believes the new dirt track will run much like the early speed favoring Belmont dirt track Our analysis tends to confirm this Here are the track bias profiles that ALL Ways software generates for Monmouth Park 6 furlong dirt sprints 1 1 16 mile dirt routes and 1 1 16 mile turf routes Longer races will of course help closers Monmouth Park 2nd Call Beaten Lengths Dirt Sprints 1 2 3 4 5 Win 78 9 4 2 5 2 Here is how to interpret these numbers Winning horses are on the lead or within 1 length of the leader at the 2nd Call 78 of the time Winning horses are either on the lead or within 2 lengths of the leader 87 of the time 78 9 This is a very strong early speed bias at the 2nd Call The statistics for the Ist Call not shown also heavily favor early speed with 63 of winners on the lead or within one length of the leader and 78 on the lead or within 2 lengths of the leader Monmouth Park 2nd Call Beaten Lengths Dirt Routes 1 2 3 4 5 Win 75 14 3 1 2 5 Winning horses are on the lead or within 1 length of the leader at the 2nd Call 75 of the time Winning horses are either on the lead or within 2 lengths of the leader 89 of the time 75 14 The early speed bias illustrated here is a bit stronger than you might expect for dirt routes The track is not so demanding of early runners at the Ist Call not shown where only 44 of winners are on the lead or within one length of the leader and 63 are
12. nalysis Module to automatically run this Gap Analysis for a track ALL Ways provides this data for 52 different handicapping factors for Gap levels of 1 through 10 and for every type of race run at the track You can use all this Gap information in conjunction with the All Factors Gap Handicapping Report to evaluate horses And or you can print out the Search Handicapping Report and see the results of the ALL Ways automatic search through all the horses in the race for those horses having a significant Gap advantage And you can use the Gap Statistics as your starting point in creating your Custom Search Definitions 2 Custom Search Definitions The Custom Search feature lets you design your own personal handicapping angles which in ALL Ways are called Search Definitions You can then test these angles against your track database s for win and in the money percentages average win payoff and win ROI At handicapping time ALL Ways will automatically evaluate every angle that you have designated for the specific type of race being run and find all horses that qualify based on the Search Definition elements ALL Ways will then show you the search results on the Search Handicapping Report This is unbelievably powerful stuff You can create test and use Search Definitions using any combination of the 52 Gap Advantage factors the 52 Gap Deficiency factors and 391 True False factors The True False Factors include powerful situational considera
13. rses is to be sure and handicap the foreign horses require some evidence that early running horses E and EP can perform well in these demanding races and proactively look for surprise closers P and S that can do well down the stretch run The Breeder s Cup for New ALL Ways Handicappers Even if you are not a current ALL Ways user you may want to try the software specifically for the Breeder s Cup It will give you better insight for finding the big payoffs and particularly for playing the ten cent Superfecta Using ALL Ways the first time on Breeder s Cup races is very easy to do Here is how 7 Download and install the FREE ALL Ways software from the BRIS Web site 2 Do the practice handicapping session described in the 2 page Quick Start Guide It will only take a few minutes 3 Download the FREE special Monmouth Park Breeder s Cup Handicapping Profiles from the Frandsen Publishing Web site 4 For the Breeder s Cup itself simply download the ALL Ways data file from BRIS and repeat what you did in Step 2 above It really is that easy We suggest you use the Pace Line Handicapping Report the Search Handicapping Report and the Top 10 Ranking Report Appendix C in the ALL Ways User Manual explains all handicapping reports Appendix B explains every handicapping factor This will arm you with everything you need to handicap the Breeder s Cup using the information presented in this and prior newsletter
14. s And remember that the ALL Ways data file will also let you print the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances at no additional cost using the free PP Generator software ALL Ways Multi Level Professional Edition Software From novice to expert at a reasonable pace Introduction In January 2007 we announced that the Professional Edition of ALL Ways is now free for all BRIS customers we released the new ALL Ways Multi Level software and we began a special effort in our 2007 ALL Ways Newsletters to help new ALL Ways users go From novice to expert at a reasonable pace during the course of the year Level ONE Level TWO and Level THREE were covered in our January April and July 2007 newsletters respectively This October 2007 newsletter wraps up this special effort by providing information about Level FOUR First let s look at some reminders Reminder 1 There is only one version of ALL Ways software All four levels are included in the ALL Ways software you install You change the level you are using with a simple click of the mouse button Reminder 2 Learning and using both Level ONE and Level TWO are required in order to use ALL Ways software in an effective manner The advanced features in Level THREE and Level FOUR are optional Reminder 3 Every time you handicap with ALL Ways you are building Race Database s of information for the track s you play These databases are used by ALL Ways to provide race track specific and race t
15. th Park sometimes referred to as The Resort of Racing is located on the shores of New Jersey This is the first time for Monmouth Park to host this very special event The Breeder s Cup is in our opinion the greatest day in horse racing every year with the world s best trainers best jockeys and obviously best horses all competing for the best purses And handicappers are consistently rewarded with the best payoffs year after year Later in this article we will provide some specific information about Monmouth Park racing that will be helpful for profitably playing this year s Breeder s Cup races There are important changes in 2007 This year the Breeder s Cup will be expanded to a two day event with the addition of three new BC races The purse money has been increased as well to an all time high of 23 million The three new BC races will be run on Friday October 26th The eight Breeder s Cup races we always look forward to will be run on Saturday October 27th Here is a complete list of the eleven BC races for 2007 Friday October 26th Dirt Mile 1 mile 70 yds 1 million Filly Mare Sprint 6 furlongs 1 million Juvenile Turf 1 mile Turf 1 million Saturday October 27th Distaff 11 8 mile 2 million Juvenile Fillies 1 1 16 mile 2 million Mile 1 mile Turf 2 million Sprint 6 furlongs 2 million Filly Mare Turf 1 3 8 Turf 2 million Juvenile 1 1 16 mile 2 million Turf 1 1 2 Turf 3 million Classic 1 1 4 mile
16. tions such as the horse finishing well after making a double move V pattern in its last race the horse has run a good race after a layoff period similar to today s race the horse ran a good race with a pace similar to what can be expected in today s race the horse has won a race at today s weight and on and on and on There is no limit to the number of Search Definitions you can create You can even build a special Search Definition Library click a single button to automatically test all the definitions against a track database and then copy the best definitions from the Library to the specific track It is axiomatic in horse racing that good angles do not occur very often If they did too many people would play the angle and it would lose its value Our experience is that a good angle will typically show up in only 5 or 6 of races Now imagine that you have developed 20 or 30 or 40 or 100 different angles and consider that ALL Ways will automatically do all the work to look for qualifying horses in every race you handicap Like we said this is one very powerful capability If you want some help finding the very best combination of the 52 Gap Advantage factors and the 52 Gap Deficiency factors and the 391 True False factors you will surely want to use the ALL Ways Angle Assistant This amazing feature uses the power of your computer to analyze literally billions that is billions with a b of handicapping factor comb
17. ype specific handicapping and analyses Recap Level ONE is named Getting Started with the Basics It includes the fundamentals of downloading and processing ALL Ways data files from BRIS using the powerful ALL Ways Handicapping Profiles and learning about ALL Ways key handicapping factors and powerful handicapping reports Level TWO is named Unleashing ALL Ways Databases You are able to automatically update and test the performance of your Handicapping Profiles You are able to review additional ALL Ways handicapping reports including the very powerful Spot Play Final Process report perhaps the most powerful stand alone handicapping report available in the industry You can also actually design your own custom handicapping reports as well Level THREE is named Analysis and Control It provides extensive automatic analysis capabilities that give you truly unique insight for your handicapping and wagering This includes the very powerful concept of forward looking analysis Plain and simple these analyses give you a thorough understanding of what is working for you and what is not And it lets you take more personal control by creating your own custom ALL Ways Handicapping Profiles aimed at the specific types of races of your choosing Level FOUR The Ultimate Handicapping Tools Level FOUR the top Level includes 100 of the handicapping and wagering tools in ALL Ways The extremely powerful tools in Level FOU
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