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MORTPAK FOR WINDOWS - the United Nations

1. 25 If User defined is selected the user is supplying the average pattern of mortality to be used as a model see user defined model q x n values below The United Nations principal component equations are then used to adjust this pattern to the desired mortality level Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male or female sex Selected data type Indicates whether the data refers to q x n or m x n q x n or m x n The empirical set of q x n or m x n values The values are given only for those age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 available Any age group not available can be left blank or set to 0 0 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Data must be given for a minimum of one age group and a maximum of eighteen i e a full set from 0 1 to 80 85 Title for user defined model This variable is used only if the model life table pattern above is coded as zero user is supplying the model It names the model supplied by the user and is printed in the table heading User defined model q x n values This variable is used only if a user defined model life table pattern was chosen above It consists of model q x n values supplied by the user The values must be given for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 Unlike q x n above all age groups must be included up to at least 60 65 The maximum age group is 80 85 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in BES
2. Sample Input Data An example data set is given in WIDOW MPL In this example estimates of adult female mortality and corresponding life expectancies for a hypothetical population are calculated and printed The data are from a survey taken in March 1982 The tabulations necessary are the male population s responses to the question of survival of first spouse as male widowhood provided estimates of female mortality and vice versa The singulate mean age at marriage is estimated as 27 21 for males and 20 54 for females The proportion of the male population whose first wife is still alive is given for age groups 20 25 25 30 up to 55 60 It should be noted however that in the case of 70 male respondents the data for age group 20 25 is not used so that field can be left blank and its value does not appear on the output 71 References Arriaga E 1983 Estimating fertility from data on children ever born by age of mother International Research Document No 11 United States Bureau of the Census Washington D C Arriaga E P Anderson and L Heligman 1976 Computer Programs for Demographic Analysis Washington D C Government Printing Office Beers H S 1945 Six term formulas for routine actuarial interpolation The Record of the American Institute of Actuaries vol 34 June Bennett N and S Horiuchi 1981 Estimating the completeness of death registration in closed populations Population Index vol
3. 47 No 2 summer pp 207 221 Brass W and others 1968 The Demography of Tropical Africa Princeton Princeton University Press Brass W and E A Bamgboye 1981 The time location of reports of survivorship estimates for maternal and paternal orphanhood and the ever widowed working paper No 81 1 London Centre for population Studies London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine University of London Brass W and K Hill 1973 Estimating adult mortality from orphanhood International Population Conference Liege 1973 vol 3 Liege International Union for the Scientific Study of population pp 111 123 Coale A and P Demeny 1966 Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations Princeton Princeton University Press Greville T N E 1943 Short methods of constructing abridged life tables The Record of the American Institute of Actuaries vol XXXII part 1 No 65 June Heligman L and J H Pollard 1980 The age pattern of mortality The Journal of the Institute of Actuaries vol 107 part 1 No 434 June Hill K 1977 Estimating adult mortality levels from information on widowhood Population Studies vol 31 No 1 March pp 75 84 Hill K 1987 Estimating census and death registration completeness Asian and Pacific Population Forum vol 1 No 3 May pp 8 13 and 23 24 Hill K and J Trussell 1977 Further developments in indirect mortality estimation
4. As a minimum nqx values must be given through age group 60 65 as a maximum through age group 80 85 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Help Note PROJECT produces an output that is too large for the worksheet so the worksheet displays only one year at a time When Run is selected a combo box is created on the worksheet with the label SELECT YEAR TO DISPLAY Clicking the cell with the combo box will produce a drop down list containing an entry for each year that is available for display These projections are created and updated whenever Run is selected If the input data is updated it is necessary to Run the application to update the output life tables 59 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in PROJCT MPL In this example a population projection for a hypothetical population is requested for the period 15 May 1975 15 May 1990 The results of the projection are to be printed every fifth year The age pattern of mortality for the projection is given as a user designated model Specifically it is an empirical life table that was calculated based on data for 1974 As required by the procedure life expectancy at birth is provided for the initial 1975 1976 and final 1989 1990 projection periods In this example for both males and females life expectancy at birth is also entered for the 1980 1981 and 1985 1986 projection periods The tot
5. Click the RUN button above the worksheet To save the input data and or output data choose save as from the FILE menu For help specific to the worksheet click on the Data Entry Help button or go to the help menu To modify existing data and run a MORTPAK application Select open from the FILE menu and select the input file When the worksheet appears make any modifications to the input data in the shaded areas allocated for input Click the RUN button above the worksheet To save the input data and or output data choose save from the FILE menu For help specific to the worksheet click on the Data Entry Help button or go to the help menu To import from versions of MORTPAK prior to 4 0 and run a MORTPAK application Select open from the FILE menu and select the input file MORTPAK for Windows will automatically recognize that the file is from a previous version of MORTPAK and will ask you to indicate the application name A MORTPAK for Windows worksheet will open with the imported input data in the shaded areas allocated for input Click the RUN button above the worksheet To save the input data and or output data choose save as from the FILE menu For help specific to the worksheet click on the Data Entry Help button or go to the HELP menu File B The Menus When MORTPAK starts a Getting Started window appears on the screen see previous page Most menu item will automatically close this screen If needed aga
6. drive and path where the file is located File names containing Untitled MPL are reserved for files that were not yet given a name For example a new worksheet is labeled Untitled MPL to show that it is waiting for its real name From the menu use File Save As to save the file onto disk with its new name Any name can be chosen except Untitled MPL or the name used by another open worksheet 19 When entering data into a worksheet do not add commas The input file separates related values with commas Adding commas to the data will insert additional commas to the input data file Therefore when the file is opened the numbers will be split wherever a comma was placed Use caution when printing large worksheets especially for the application PROJCT For these it is better to use print preview to select page numbers for printing or better yet highlight selected areas and use print selection Remember that the worksheets are not spreadsheets with auto calculate on If input data is changed it is necessary to run the program to update the output data so that all input output is consistent Worksheets often contain cells with drop down lists This is convenient when choosing from a fixed list of choices This also ensures proper spelling and consistency for text inputs For example the input field might contain an extra space abbreviations might be used or entries might be plural instead of singular Wh
7. incorporating methodological advances in the construction of model life tables for example As a by product of these activities this extensive body of computer software has been developed MORTPAK has already been well tested and is now widely used for analysis of developing country data and in developing country institutions The design of the applications in MORTPAK as well as the program MATCH has its origins in the United States Census Bureau package Computer Programs for Demographic Analysis Arriaga Anderson and Heligman 1976 The Population Division would be pleased to receive comments on experiences using MORTPAK that would enhance the international usefulness of future software development activities Please contact the Director Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations New York New York 10017 USA iii CONTENTS Page PROTACE oo yyiscs sees cai bcs vet veges a E sees besieed nas vcur eck acs use tests bean esas tapos ill INTRODUCTION A The Demographic Procedurese ceicicts setemionn aoe 1 B What s New in MORTPAK for Windows 4 C Layout of the Volume 4 06 ase Oe ees 6 I USING MORTPAK FOR WINDOWS Pec GETHIN Slatted airen opes ee A E E el ees 7 B The Menus 3 24 did cnet ei ee Geeta 8 C The WOKS NEES oc css loh ck poena tide gt Wahaus alcatel etd 17 D Special ISsues 2 452 5u a ea ARN ea 18 Il DESCRIPTION OF THE PROCEDURES A BENHR Estimation of completeness of adult dea
8. q 1 4 and the life expectancy at birth corresponding to the q a values within each model life table pattern both sexes combined Since version 4 3 the output now includes a table on child mortality and an output column was added to display reference dates in numeric decimal format This is convenient for example if displaying x y graphs 27 Data required for CEBCS Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Month Indicates the month of the enumeration Year The year of the enumeration Mean age of childbearing Mean age of mother at childbearing in the population This variable is only used when data are tabulated by age of mother If data are tabulated by duration of marriage this value will not be used This variable can be calculated from births tabulated by age of mother at time of birth as 17 5 B 15 20 22 5 B 20 25 27 5 B 2S 30 47 5 B 45 80 M B 15 20 B 20 25 B 25 30 B 45 50 where B x y is the number of births to women in age group x to y at the time of birth An approximate estimate of M can be calculated from children ever born data through FERTCB or from the age schedule of fertility through FERTPF Tabulations Indicates whether the data are tabulated by age group of mother or by duration of her marriage Since data by age of mother was replaced by QFIVE selecting this will give instruction on cop
9. Population Studies vol 31 No 2 July pp 313 334 72 Martin L 1980 A modification for use in destabilized populations of Brass s technique for estimating completeness of death registration Population Studies vol 34 No 2 July pp 381 396 Mortara G 1949 Fertility and reproduction rates Methods of Using Census Statistics for the Calculation of Life Tables and Other Demographic Measures United Nations publication Sales No 1950 XIII 3 pp 40 60 Palloni A and L Heligman 1985 Re estimation of structural parameters to obtain estimates of mortality in developing countries Population Bulletin of the United Nations No 18 United Nations publication Sales No E 85 XIII 6 pp 10 33 Preston S H 1983 An integrated system for demographic estimation from two age distributions Demography vol XX No 2 May pp 213 226 Preston S H and A J Coale 1982 Age structure growth attrition and accession a new synthesis Population Index vol 48 No 2 summer pp 217 259 Preston S H and others 1980 Estimating the completeness of reporting of adult deaths in populations that are approximately stable Population Index vol 46 No 2 summer pp 179 202 Shryock Henry S and Jacob S Siegel 1973 The Methods and Materials of Demography revised edition Washington D C United States Bureau of the Census Sullivan J M 1972 Models for the estimation of the probability of d
10. and prints out United Nations Coale Demeny or user designated model life tables corresponding to given levels of mortality As the user designated model can be a mortality pattern specific to a certain population MATCH can generate a country specific model life table system Description of technique The user must designate the model pattern any of the five United Nations four Coale Demeny patterns or an external model supplied by the user and the sex desired The United Nations principal component equations United Nations 1982 p 8 or Coale Demeny regression equations Coale Demeny 1966 p 21 are then used with an iterative procedure to find the model corresponding to a given level of mortality The iterative procedure is described in United Nations 1982 pp 22 23 However because of potential extrapolation problems model life tables are calculated only when life expectancy at birth is between 20 and 80 years When a user defined pattern is used it is permitted to go up to 90 years The mortality level is specified by the user by designating a mortality value for one of four life table functions nmx nqx lx or ex for any one of the age groups The iterative procedure is carried out by the procedure MATCH which calls the procedures LIFTB and when necessary ICM for construction of the model life table itself The model life table is presented as computer output the life table columns are as given in the description of the proce
11. are displayed if not already in other parts of the output Enhancements to the outputs only appear in the MORTPAK worksheets Document style output which produces word processing style output similar to MORTPAK 3 is no longer supported and is no longer being updated C Layout of the Volume This introduction is followed by two chapters Chapter I describes the Windows based interface It explains how to get started with using MORTPAK a description of each menu and sub menu entry and how to use the worksheets and the distinctive features of the worksheets Finally it covers special issues that may need special attention Chapter II describes the 20 MORTPAK applications procedures It describes the purpose of each procedure a mathematical and demographic description of the technique the data required and a description of applying the technique with sample input data that is provided with the package USING MORTPAK FOR WINDOWS A Getting Started To enter new data and run a MORTPAK application Select new from the FILE menu and choose the application A description of each application is supplied For those who are familiar with the application names an alternative is to select the application from the APPLICATION menu At the bottom of the list clicking Description will open up a form containing the application names and their description Once the worksheet is open enter the data in the shaded areas allocated for input
12. are set to a value below the lowest valid data point A warning is then placed the chart header indicating that the lowest data point s is invalid i e less than or equal to zero A value closer to zero was not chosen to prevent the line from having a large downward spike Display Update Chart XY Graph The first selected line is the X axis and the following selected lines are Y1 Y2 etc and is displayed as an XY line graph Display Update Chart XY Scatter The first selected series is the X axis and the following selected series are Y1 Y2 etc and are displayed as a marker for each data point Display Update Chart Box Plot Each series of values is displayed as a box plot Display Update Chart Pyramid One or two data series may be selected the first appears as bars facing left and the second if available to the right Both appear as a proportional distribution with the left and right having equal scale values The first data point s in the sequence is at the bottom and the last is on the top The Y axis shows the sequence number This chart is intended for demographers to display population pyramid charts Window When more than one worksheet is open the worksheets can be cascaded tiled horizontal or tiled vertical Arrange icons is for neatly arranging the icons of minimized worksheets at the bottom of the screen All open windows are listed here Worksheets can be selected here by clicking o
13. choice of six sets of estimating equations are available one based on the Coale and Demeny models and five based on the United Nations models Through a second set of simulations Palloni and Heligman also developed a set of regression equations which estimate the time reference to which the nl25 values refer These regression equations are based on the United Nations General Pattern of mortality but appear to apply equally well to all of the United Nations patterns as well as the Coale and Demeny based pattern The independent variables which are calculated from the input data necessary for calculating these time references are the ratio of average number of children ever born for women in age group 15 20 to that in age group 20 25 the ratio of average number of children ever born for women in age group 20 25 to that in age group 25 30 and the average age of childbearing among women in the population Starting with 4 3 new output tables were added to display q 15 45 and q 15 35 An output column was added to display reference dates in numeric decimal format This is convenient for example if displaying x y graphs 50 Data required for ORPHAN Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Month Indicates the month of the enumeration Year The year of the enumeration for example 1970 Age The mean age of mother at childbearing in the population Propor
14. default column width It is possible to adjust the width of individual columns within an open worksheet Above each column of cells is a narrow bar with dividing lines Moving the mouse cursor over the dividing line will change the cursor into two arrows facing left and right Press and hold the left mouse button and drag the line left or right to resize the column When running an application the output is always saved as worksheet format as well as document output format in a rich text format RTF Both are used because they have different characteristics The worksheet output is desirable because it has characteristics similar to a spreadsheet It is easy to copy data to the clipboard which is ready for pasting into the spreadsheet The RTF file is desirable because it has a style suitable for exporting into a word processor and has an output presentation similar to earlier versions of MORTPAK It can be displayed by pressing the Show Document Output button above the worksheet Pressing the same button again now labeled Show Data Entry Worksheet Output will close the document output window The document output can be printed directly or for customized printouts from a word processor the document output can be copied to the clipboard or saved as a rich text format RTF file The data from the clipboard can be pasted into an existing word processing document or the word processor can open the saved RTF file The output uses a
15. five year age groups and sex and an assumption of future changes in fertility mortality and migration Description of technique The procedure carries out a single year projection of a population by age and sex based on initial male and female populations in five year age groups and assumed changes in fertility and mortality Projections can be made for up to 100 years The methodology used is cohort component see Shryock and Siegel 1973 The steps are 1 estimation of projected levels and age patterns of mortality fertility and migration for each single year projection period 2 estimation of the male and female populations by single years of age from the data in five year age groups given as input 3 sequential application of these annual age specific mortality and fertility rates and migration to the population to provide annual projected populations by age and sex and demographic indicators Step 1 Life expectancy at birth for males and for females must be given as input for the initial and final projection years life expectancy values for intermediate projection years are given at the option of the user Life expectancy at birth for omitted years is calculated by linear interpolation with respect to year The age pattern of mortality is provided as a United Nations model Coale Demeny model or user designated empirical life table These models have been extended to life expectancies at birth of 92 5 years for males and female
16. of children dead per woman The number of women The average number of children ever born to a woman The proportion of children dead per woman The average number of children ever born to a woman The average number of children surviving per woman 62 Q Description of STABLE Purpose of procedure Calculates a stable age distribution based on a set of age specific central death rates nm values or age specific probabilities of dying qx values and the intrinsic rate of natural increase Starting with version 4 3 lx can be substituted for qx values Description of technique Based on a given set of mx or nqx values for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 up to an open age group maximum of 100 and over an abridged life table is constructed and printed see LIFTB Using the person years column Lx from this life table including the extrapolated values through age 125 calculated by LIFTB and the intrinsic rate of natural increase r given as input the stable age distribution is calculated and printed along with the proportion of the population under each age and the intrinsic birth and death rates Calculation formulas are presented in United Nations 1982a p ix Data required for STABLE Title A heading of up to 72 characters to be printed above the calculated life table Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male or female sex Type of mortality data Indicates whether qx mx or lx values are b
17. of the worksheet a special working area is provided for the user It is not intended as a spreadsheet but is useful for holding data For example if a series of outputs is generated columns of numbers can be copied into the special working area for comparison or for creating a table which can later be exported into a proper spreadsheet Even though the worksheet is not a spreadsheet it has some of its characteristics For example if the number of characters or digits for a cell is too many to be viewed within that cell there will be spillover into empty cells on the right giving the appearance of a long merged cell If the cells to the right are not empty the full contents of the cell cannot be shown and will have a at the end However the cells are not truly merged and if the cursor is moved into one of the spillover cells on the right text or data can be entered When the cursor has been moved into one of the spillover cells a marker line is placed under the selected cell to indicate the location For cells containing drop down lists e g to select males or females the size of the cell will adjust to match the width needed by the data choice If predefined labels are too big to fit in a cell it is possible the Windows font size was set to a larger size than the default To increase the column width of newly opened worksheets from the menu choose View and Options to increase the
18. procedure BESTFT is called to provide interpolated values of q 5 5 q 10 5 and q 15 5 based on the second component fit to the designated model Next q 1 4 and q 20 5 are used in an identical way to provide a second set of interpolated values of q 5 5 q 10 5 and q 15 5 The average of these two sets of values is accepted If only 1 5 is given then procedure MATCH is used to calculate q 0 1 and q 1 4 values which are consistent with the 1 5 value and the designated model Then q 5 5 q 10 5 and q 15 5 are calculated as mentioned previously If only 1 1 is given the procedure BESTFT is used to calculate interpolated values for q 1 4 q 5 5 q 10 5 and q 15 5 given q 0 1 and q 20 5 Starting with version 4 3 the values of q 0 1 and q 0 5 can be substituted for 1 1 and 1 5 The value of q 15 n can be inputted instead of e 20 where n can be any valid value selected as input default 5 when zero or blank The value of n is valid when x n has a value of 1 5 10 15 20 up to the open age group With the complete set of q x n values the procedure LIFTB is used to print the output table Data required for COMBIN Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be printed at the top of the page of output 33 Model life table pattern Indicates the model life table pattern to be used The choices are United Nations Latin American United Nations Chilean United Nations South Asian Uni
19. regression equations have been developed which relate the multipliers M x 5 to indices of the fertility schedule Nine separate sets of regression equations have been estimated the first five for each of the United Nations models see Palloni and Heligman 1985 and the last four for each of the Coale and Demeny models the Trussell regressions see United Nations 1983 Through a second set of simulations regression equations have also been developed from the same set of independent variables which estimate the time reference to which these q a values refer The independent variables that estimate the q a values as well as the time references are calculated from the input data to the procedure In addition to the proportion of dead children by age group or marital duration of woman variables needed are the ratio of average number of children ever born for women in the first age or marital duration group to that in the second age or marital duration group the ratio of average number of children ever born for women in the second group to that in the third group and the mean age of mother at childbearing in the population The last variable is used only for the calculations based on the United Nations models an approximate estimate of the mean age of childbearing is produced by the procedures FERTCB and FERTPF Regression equations are used to calculate estimates of the infant mortality rate q 0 1 the probability of dying between ages 1 and 5
20. 5 20 20 25 45 50 These fields are left blank if data from only one enumeration are being entered If the year of the second census is blank or zero the procedure assumes that the second enumeration is not available Therefore any data given for the second enumeration is ignored Sample Input Data An example data set is given in FERTCB MPL In this example data on children ever born in five year age groups are available for a hypothetical population from enumerations during July 1970 and May 1976 The Arriaga approach is used to estimate age specific fertility rates for July 1970 July 1971 and May 1975 May 1976 39 I Description of FERTPF Purpose of procedure Estimation of age specific fertility rates from data on children ever born tabulated by age of mother and the age pattern of fertility recorded at either one or optionally two points in time Description of technique Recorded age specific fertility rates often underestimate the true level of fertility owing to omission of events from civil registration systems or surveys or misunderstanding of the length of the reference period in survey questions on births during a previous period Because of reference period errors age specific fertility rates calculated from surveys are also occasionally overestimated Brass Brass and others 1968 developed a method commonly known as the P F method for evaluating and adjusting these recorded fertility rates by compar
21. POP SW MORTPAK 2003 15 September 2003 Update 25 April 2013 MORTPAK FOR WINDOWS Version 4 3 a United Nations New York 2013 Preface The present volume contains the working manual for MORTPAK for Windows the United Nations software package for demographic measurement in developing countries The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988 Version 4 0 of MORTPAK included 17 applications in the areas of population projection life table and stable population construction graduation of mortality data indirect mortality estimation indirect fertility estimation and other indirect procedures for evaluating age distributions and the completeness of censuses Version 4 3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations The package as presented here has been constructed with worksheet style full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive microcomputer environment and reduces dependence on a manual The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat has long conducted demographic estimation and projection activities at the country level
22. TFT MPL In this example for a hypothetical female population mortality probabilities for only age groups 0 1 35 40 40 45 and 45 50 are available The best one two and three component fits to the Brass African Standard supplied by the user are calculated and printed 26 C Description of CEBCS Purpose of procedure To estimate early age mortality from data on the average number of children ever born and the average number of children surviving tabulated by duration of her marriage Data by age group of mother is no longer calculated because it was replaced by the QFIVE procedure Description of technique Brass Brass and others 1968 has shown that the probability of dying between birth and age a denoted as q a can be estimated as q a M x 5 D x 5 where D x 5 refers to the proportion of children dead to women in age group x x 5 and M x 5 is an age specific factor called a multiplier which depends on indices of the age pattern of fertility Under this system the proportion of children dead for women in age groups 15 20 20 25 25 30 45 50 are used to calculate q a for values of a equal to 1 2 3 5 10 15 and 20 respectively Sullivan 1972 later showed that the same type of relationship holds when data are tabulated by duration of marriage In this case durations of marriage for 0 5 years 5 10 years 30 35 years correspond to q a for ages 2 3 5 10 15 20 and 25 respectively Through simulations
23. a from columns 17 and 18 for CENCT or select the output data from columns 14 and 15 for PRESTO Then select Chart from the menu and then select the chart type Large outputs are produced by PROJCT or when MATCH prints multiple output tables The entire output is shown in document output but the worksheet has limited space Therefore only one table at a time can be shown in the worksheet To select which table to display a combo box is created on the form containing a drop down list with an entry for each available table For example the combo box for PROJCT has an entry for each year displayed in the document output Remember that only the Run 20 command updates the output data The combo box only selects which one of the output tables to display If input data is changed it is necessary to Run the application to update the output tables Commercial spreadsheets update for every cell change MORTPAK uses manual update and updates only when Calculate Output for Selected Worksheet from the Run menu is selected or the Run icon is pressed When a group of cells is selected within a worksheet and a chart type is selected from the chart menu it is possible to choose another chart type without first closing the previous chart window The newly selected chart uses the data points from the already selected cells within the currently active worksheet If you want to make a worksheet active and retain the current selecti
24. age In conjunction with the population figures deaths are estimated The results indicate that the 1972 census is about 5 per cent less complete than the 1960 census adjustment factors are around 95 so the correct population growth rate between 2 04 per cent and 2 09 per cent is slightly higher than the recorded rate 2 0 per cent 32 E Description of COMBIN Purpose of procedure Calculates a model life table from an estimate of life expectancy at age 20 or q 15 n combined with an estimate of survivorship to age 1 survivorship to age 5 or both can be substituted with 1qo and 5q0 Description of technique The procedure adjusts a designated United Nations or Coale and Demeny model life table to incorporate the child and adult survivorship values given as input Age specific probabilities of dying q x n values consistent with these survivorship values are determined separately for ages 20 and over and for ages under 20 For ages 20 and over q x 5 values from the designated model life table pattern and life expectancy at age 20 are accepted These q x 5 values are calculated through the procedure MATCH The method of calculating age specific mortality rates under age 20 depends upon the form of the input data In the complete case survivorship to both age 1 i e 1 1 and age 5 i e 1 5 are given allowing straightforward calculation of q 0 1 and q 1 4 Given q 0 1 and the value of q 20 5 calculated above the
25. al fertility rates and age specific fertility rates are given for the initial and final projection periods Total fertility rates are also given for 1980 1981 and 1985 1986 60 P Description of QFIVE Purpose of procedure Estimates of infant mortality and under 5 mortality by applying the two versions of the Brass method the Trussell version based on the Coale Demeny model life tables and the Palloni Heligman version based on the United Nations model life tables Description of technique Starting with version 4 3 this application has been added to MORTPAK It was previously released as a separate program running in DOS operating system QFIVE at that time was distributed together with the manual Step by Step Guide to the Estimation of Child Mortality which is now available for download This manual gives a detailed description of the techniques used in QFIVE Brass Brass and others 1968 has shown that the probability of dying between birth and age a denoted as q a can be estimated as q a M x 5 D x 5 where D x 5 refers to the proportion of children dead to women in age group x x 5 and M x 5 is an age specific factor called a multiplier which depends on indices of the age pattern of fertility Under this system the proportion of children dead for women in age groups 15 20 20 25 25 30 45 50 are used to calculate q a for values of a equal to 1 2 3 5 10 15 and 20 respectively Through simulations regr
26. and CEBx t2 for every age x iii to calculate single year age specific fertility rates for the one year period following the first census as fy CEBx t 1 CEBx t and for the one year period preceding the second census as f CEBx 1 t2 CEBx t2 1 iv to ensure that the age specific fertility rates at older ages decrease monotonically and exponentially to zero at age 50 adjust the estimated single year age specific fertility rates at ages 40 and over by assuming that f f9 1 far a 1 and finally v to calculate age specific fertility rates in conventional five year age groups for each time period by taking the arithmetic average of the single year age specific fertility rates within each five year age group When children ever born data are only available at one point of time the method can still be applied although only under the case of constant fertility Mortara 1949 Simply fx CEB CEB where f is the fertility rate for women in age group x x l and CEBx is the recorded average number of children ever born for women exact age x Graduation is necessary to estimate average numbers of children ever born for women at exact age x from the usual recorded data on average numbers of children ever born in five year age groups x x 5 Arriaga 1983 uses a ninth degree polynomial for this graduation he also outlines the steps for calculation of fertility rates for conventional five year age groups from the s
27. associated with the active worksheet To save space on the desktop the navigation tabs context index and find are not shown and the topic window is maximized The help file for MORTPAK contains two window styles One style contains navigation tabs that are useful for selecting a help topic The other style is context sensitive and is for either selecting the getting started page or the data description of the selected application Both window styles can be resized using standard Windows techniques When the help windows are closed and open at a later time the previous size of the window is remembered Data entered into the worksheets can contain any number of decimal places The applications use the full precision when performing the calculations For better appearance data columns in the worksheet are display rounded to a pre determined number of decimal places The full precision of the number can be seen when the cell is in edit mode selected by pressing F2 or double clicking on the cell or when the data is saved on disk The grid used by MORTPAK accepts formatting information for individual column Individual cells cannot be formatted separately In some cases where more than one type of data is on the same column it was necessary to leave the column unformatted If no formatting is specified then the right most zeros after the decimal place are not displayed Each worksheet form has an entry for an input file name together with the disk
28. cting whether to display or hide the status bar The status bar shows the date and time in the bottom of the screen Comment Box The contents of the comment box are for the currently active worksheet To view the comments associated with another worksheet simply click the desired worksheet to make it active The contents of the comment box can be edited and are saved when the data is saved It is useful for listing data sources and other issues related to the input data Select Font Size for Document Output All newly opened worksheets have the font size of Document Output set to 8 as a default The font size can be set individually for each open worksheet To change the font size of a particular Document Output select one of the worksheets by clicking on it so that it becomes active Selecting this menu item will bring up a sub menu with the font sizes 6 75 8 9 10 and 11 This will change the font size of the currently active worksheet only The font size for newly opened worksheets will remain at 8 If text is copied to the clipboard from Document Output and pasted into a word processing document the font size will be approximately the same as that chosen above This menu item is also available under the Edit menu Options Opens up a form with tabs labeled Select Colors File Locations and General Choices Background colors can be changed for worksheet protected cells and edit cells A non active worksheet will not sho
29. d as 1 100000 1 1q0 Probability of surviving from birth to age 5 Probability of surviving from birth to age 5 in the country being studied It can be calculated as 15 gt 100000 1 1q0 1 41 Month of first enumeration Indicates the month that the first census was taken Year of first enumeration The year the first census was taken for example 1970 54 Month of second enumeration Indicates the month that the second census was taken Year of second enumeration The year the second census was taken for example 1970 Final open age group Indicates the final open age groups given for the first end second population The final open age group must have a value ranging from 65 to 85 Population of first census The population by age for the first census Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through and including the last open age group available Population of second census The population by age for the second census Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through and including the last open age group available Title for user defined model This variable is used only if the model life table pattern above is coded as zero It is a name for the model supplied by the user and is included in the table heading User defined model qx values This variable is used only if the model life table pattern above is coded as zero It consists of model qx values supplied by the user The values must be given
30. deaths are generated through a model life table the life table choice is indicated by designating a life table column the age group of interest and the life table mortality value Life table mortality value This value indicates the mortality value being matched The value of m x n or q x n should be between O and 1 The value of 1 x should be based on a radix of 100 000 The value of e x is presented in years For example if a model life table is chosen with 1 5 90000 then the life table column is set to 3 age is set to 5 and the mortality value is set to 90000 Life table column The life table column has four choices available m x n q x n I x or e x Life table age The age group of interest is coded as 0 age group 0 1 1 1 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 80 80 85 When the third life table column is chosen i e 1 x ages 2 3 or 4 may also be chosen to indicate matching on 1 2 1 3 or 1 4 Title for user defined model This variable is used only if the model life table pattern above is coded as zero and Deaths above is coded as 1 It is a name for the model supplied by the user and is included in the table heading User defined model q x n values This variable is used only if the user indicates the choice of calculating deaths by Model Life Table and the user defined model life table pattern was chosen It consists of model q x n values supplied by the user The values must be given for age grou
31. description of each application name When the input data is ready select run from the menu and then choose Calculate Output for Selected Worksheet to process the data or simply press the run icon Whenever run is selected the output is always sent to the worksheet and to the document output window The document output window can be shown or hidden with the toggle button on the worksheet form The worksheet output is desirable for exporting data to external spreadsheets by copying to the clipboard and pasting into the spreadsheet The document output is desirable for exporting output to a word processor for producing printed copies This output can be printed copied to the clipboard or saved as a rich text format RTF file The document output style is similar to early versions of MORTPAK While the worksheet output is more suitable for export to spreadsheets this output is more suitable for export into a word processor One way is to copy the data into the clipboard and paste it into a word processing document Use Copy from Document Output from the menu or use the shortcut key ctrl ins Shortcut keys such as ctrl c are for copying data from the worksheet to the clipboard and not from document output Another way is to select Save Document Output from the menu This will save the output as a rich text format RTF file These RTF files retain the displayed formatting and can be opened from your word processor Fro
32. dure LIFTB Starting with 4 3 while this application still contains the traditional i e unchanged model life tables from previous versions new enhanced life tables were added The new model life tables have age patterns which were updated and have been expanded to include life expectancies at birth to age 100 When matching on q x n or m x n the value of n can now be selected as input If 6699 n is zero or blank its value will default to the interval between the current and next age group Data required for MATCH Title A data description of up to 40 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Model life table pattern Indicates the model life table pattern to be used The choices are User defined model United Nations Latin American model United Nations Chilean United Nations South Asian 47 United Nations Far East Asian United Nations General Coale Demeny West Coale Demeny North Coale Demeny East Coale Demeny South If the user defined model is chosen the user is supplying the average pattern of mortality to be used as a model see User Defined Model qx values below The United Nations principal component equations are then used to adjust this pattern to the desired mortality level Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male or female sex The life table choice is indicated by designating a life table column the age group of interest and the life table
33. e age specific growth rate D a is registered intercensal deaths for ages a and over t is the length of the intercensal period K is completeness of the second census enumeration relative to the first and C is completeness of death registration during the intercensal period Values of K and C are assumed to be invariant with age In practice N a and N a are calculated from census population age sex counts as gt e N a t P ue a aa G pet te 5P2 and 1 N a t 2 Play a P2 where Pl and P2 refer to the population counts at the first and second census respectively The cumulative age specific growth rate is calculated as 1 r a zg ln Pe APS The equation follows directly from Martin s 1980 generalization of the Brass growth balance equation The equation indicates that the ratio of intercensal deaths to the 29 intercensal population is linearly related to a measure easily calculated from two population censuses The intercept of the fitted line allows calculations of the coverage of the second census count relative to that of the first census K e t where I is the intercept The value of K can therefore be considered a multiplicative adjustment factor When applied to the first census it produces consistency in coverage to the second census The computer program estimates the intercept through ordinary least squares regression It should be noted that the value of K along with the value of the slope
34. e table pattern chosen is User defined model It is a name for the model supplied by the user and is included in the table heading User defined model qx values This variable is used only if the model life table pattern chosen is User defined model It consists of model qx values supplied by the user The values must be given for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 Asa 48 minimum qx values must be given through age group 60 65 as a maximum through age group 80 85 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Help Note When a series of model life tables is selected by giving a final life table value and an increment between life tables a combo box is created on the worksheet with the label SELECT TABLE TO SHOW Clicking the cell with the combo box will display a drop down list containing an entry for each available life table These life tables are created and updated whenever Run is selected If the input data is updated it is necessary to Run the application to update the output life tables Sample Input Data An example data set is given in MATCH MPL In this example a user defined model life table is calculated A set of qx values supplied by the user based on a neighboring country is given and the first component vector of the United Nations models is used to adjust them to correspond to a life expectancy at birth of 65 years 49 M Descr
35. eets by clicking on it so that it becomes active Selecting this menu item will bring up a sub menu with the font sizes 6 75 8 9 10 and 11 This will change the font size of the currently active worksheet only The font size for newly opened worksheets will remain at 8 If text is copied to the clipboard from Document Output and pasted into a word processing document the font size will be approximately the same as that chosen above This menu item is also available under the View menu Find For finding data or text in the worksheet or document output The worksheet is the default Whole word only and or Match case can be chosen Type in the search text and press Find Next When the end is reached the search start from the beginning If the cursor is moved the search will start from the position of the cursor 11 View Toolbar For selecting whether to display or hide the toolbar The toolbar is a set of shortcut icons for selected menu items The icons available are New Open Save Print Worksheet Print Document Output Cut Copy Worksheet Copy Document Output Paste Run Display Update Chart Standard and Find A W or D was placed into the print and copy icon to distinguish between worksheet and document output Icons such as cut and paste apply only to the worksheet because document output cannot be edited Status Bar For sele
36. eing given as input This selection is used to describe the age specific mortality data Changing the data type will not convert the age specific mortality data from one type to another Rate of natural increase The intrinsic rate of natural increase It is read in on a unit basis so for example a 3 per cent annual growth rate is designated as 0300 Age specific mortality data The empirical set of qx or nmx values The values must be given for five year age groups for ages 5 and over and for age groups 0 1 and 1 5 under age 5 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Mortality data must be entered for all ages through age group 60 65 The maximum age group permitted is 95 100 Remember that the final open age group is not entered 63 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in STABLE MPL In this example the life table stable age distribution and intrinsic vital rates is calculated and printed corresponding to a given set of nqx values up through age group 75 80 and a rate of natural increase of 3 per cent for a hypothetical female population 64 R Description of TIMSER Purpose of procedure This application displays a time series from a selected model life table column corresponding to an input series of mortality levels Description of technique Starting with version 4 3 this application was added to MORTPAK This application has similarities to appl
37. en i e 1 x ages 2 3 or 4 may also be chosen to indicate matching on 1 2 1 3 or 1 4 The other columns may not use ages 2 3 or 4 Life table age group interval When inputting m x n or q x n the value of n may be entered as input In previous versions of MORTPAK the value of n was the interval from the current to the next age group and is now considered the default value The default value is used whenever n is not supplied or has a value of zero 37 H Description of FERTCB Purpose of procedure Estimation of age specific fertility rates from data on children ever born tabulated by age of mother recorded at either one or optionally two points in time Description of technique Arriaga 1983 has shown how age specific fertility rates can be calculated from recorded data on children ever born by age of woman The method is best used in situations when children ever born data are available at two points in time The approach of Arr iaga is i to obtain average number of children ever born for women exact age x at the time of the first and second enumeration CEB t and CEB t2 through graduation by a ninth degree polynomial on the data on children ever born in five year age groups recorded in each enumeration ii to estimate children ever born at exact age x for the year after the first census CEB t 1 and the year before the second census CEB t2 1 by linear interpolation between CEBx t
38. en a MORTPAK data entry window is active both the worksheet area and a Document Output area are active at the same time Even when the Document Output area is hidden i e only the worksheet is shown it is still active For example pressing the Run button will update both the output areas of the worksheet and fill the Document Output area with the output results If a menu item applies to only one of the two areas its label identifies which area it applies to If shortcut keys are available its definition is shown to the right of the menu command Since Document Output is not to be edited by the user except by pressing the run button commands such as cut and paste only apply to the worksheet The copy command has two shortcut keys ctrl c and ctrl ins For MORTPAK it was decided to use ctrl c for the worksheet and ctrl ins for Document Output The toolbar contains copy and print icons A W was placed within the icons that apply to the worksheet and a D was place within the icons that apply to Document Output For applications that generate graphs such as PRESTO and CENCT the graph will be displayed when the run button is pressed The graph can be minimized to see again later or the run button can be pressed to re display the graph The graphs generated by PRESTO and CENCT both display the age group as a data point These graphs can be displayed as XY scatter graphs or XY line graphs First select the output dat
39. enu If the highlighted selection box is square or horizontal it is no longer assumed the data appear in columns Therefore a dialog box opens asking if the data are in rows or columns On the chart window control buttons appear on the right The first one allows the chart header plus the X axis and Y axis labels to be customized The Copy as bitmap button places the graphic image into the clipboard ready for pasting into any image editing software The Copy as metafile button is better than bitmaps when pasting into software such as Word and Excel To copy the metafiles properly the software must be opened before pressing the copy button Once pasted into external software the metafile image can be enlarged without losing resolution The Print button opens a print preview window to customize the graph before printing The Close button simply closed the chart window Select Chart Type for Icon The display chart icon on the tool bar is set to line graph as a default This menu item allows the display chart icon to be set to any of the other chart types Restarting MORTPAK will set the icon back to line graph Display Update Chart Line For making a line graph from the highlighted column or row of cells 14 Display Update Chart Bar For making a bar chart from the highlighted column or row of cells Display Update Chart Logarithm Same as line graph but the Y axis is in the log scale Invalid data points
40. es of estimates of completeness of death registration due to the possibility of varying x from age 5 through the maximum age If the two population censuses are equally complete if death registration is equally complete for all ages above 5 and if there is no bias in age statement this series will provide a more or less constant set of figures for completeness of death registration Variance from a constant set of figures indicates that one or more of the above conditions does not hold Some systematic patterns of departures from constancy may reflect violations of particular assumptions and thus suggest appropriate directions for correcting the data see Preston and others 1980 The computer program calculates the median of the series of estimates and assumes this median is the best estimate of death registration completeness This best estimate is then used to calculate an adjusted set of age specific death rates and life expectancies for ages 5 and above The method requires a preliminary estimate of life expectancy for the oldest age entered for the population age distribution For example if the population age distribution has 80 as the oldest age group entered a preliminary estimate of life expectancy at age 80 is required This life expectancy is estimated within the computer program using a set of regression equations which relate life expectancy at age a to the ratio of registered deaths for age group 60 and over to registered death
41. ession equations have been developed which relate the multipliers M x 5 to indices of the fertility schedule Nine separate sets of regression equations have been estimated the first five for each of the United Nations models see Palloni and Heligman 1985 and the last four for each of the Coale and Demeny models the Trussell regressions see United Nations 1983 Through a second set of simulations regression equations have also been developed from the same set of independent variables which estimate the time reference to which these q a values refer The independent variables that estimate the q a values as well as the time references are calculated from the input data to the procedure In addition to the proportion of dead children by age group of woman variables needed are the ratio of average number of children ever born for women in the first age to that in the second age the ratio of average number of children ever born for women in the second group to that in the third group and the mean age of mother at childbearing in the population The last variable is used only for the calculations based on the United Nations models an approximate estimate of the mean age of childbearing is produced by the procedures FERTCB and FERTPF Regression equations are used to calculate estimates of the infant mortality rate q 0 1 the probability of dying between ages and 5 q 1 4 and the life expectancy at birth corresponding to the q a values
42. f MORTPAK the value of n was the interval from the current to the next age group and is now considered the default value 6699 The default value is used whenever n is not supplied or has a value of zero Life table mortality label This label is used to identify the time series values For example they might be the date associated with the data They are not used by the program but only for display Life table mortality values This value indicates the mortality values being matched For example if a model life table is chosen with 1 5 90000 then the mortality value is set to 90000 This program is similar to MATCH but allows a time series up to 100 values Blank entries are ignored This provides more flexibility when entering data Life table output column The time series will only display one column at a time from the model life table This input selects which column to display 66 S Description of UNABR Purpose of procedure Graduates a set of age specific probabilities of dying qx values in age groups 0 1 1 5 10 15 producing a smooth set of qx values and estimated single year probabilities of dying and survivors Description of technique The mortality probabilities in age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 10 15 are graduated by use of an eight parameter formula Heligman and Pollard 1980 for the age curve of mortality c 2 x a B A De Ell x ln F f GH 1 1 GH where qx is the p
43. f birth of the child or by age of mother at the date of enumeration Children ever born first enumeration The average number of children ever born per woman at the time of the first enumeration Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 Age specific fertility pattern first enumeration The age specific fertility pattern at the time of the first enumeration Data may be given as recorded age specific fertility rates or as the proportionate age distribution of fertility Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 Month of second enumeration Indicates the month of the second enumeration Leave blank if data from only one enumeration are being entered Year of second Enumeration The year of the second enumeration Leave blank if data from only one enumeration are being entered Fertility pattern of second enumeration Indicates how the fertility pattern from the second enumeration is tabulated whether by age of mother at time of birth of the child or by age of mother at the date of enumeration Children ever born second enumeration The average number of children ever born per woman at the time of the second enumeration Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 Leave blank if data from only one enumeration are being entered 41 Age specific fertility pattern second enumeration The age specific fertility pattern at the time of the second enumeration Data may be given as recorded age spec
44. font called Courier New because each character has the same width This is useful for lining up table columns without using tabs The output can be customized by making the font size smaller to fit the margins or larger for easier viewing Because this output 18 does not use tabs the table formatting will remain the same For outputs that are too wide to fit the margins the page orientation can be switched from portrait to landscape Page breaks are marked with a sign For long outputs search for the sign and replace it with a page break Word processors have search and replace feature For Microsoft Word put in the search box and put m in the replace box to replace each with a page break When the document output window is open it can use 15 to 100 of the screen A value of 100 means that the entire worksheet is covered by the document output In the menu choose View and Options to set the default percentage for document output New installations of MORTPAK are set to 100 This percentage applies to newly opened worksheets and can be changed for individual worksheets by dragging the document output window larger or smaller Move the mouse cursor within the horizontal bar above document output When the cursor shows an arrow facing both up and down press and hold the left mouse button and drag the document windows to its desired size Whenever data entry help is selected this help file opens to the topic
45. for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 Asa minimum nqx values must be given through age group 60 65 as a maximum through age group 80 85 The open age group is not given As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in PRESTO MPL In this example the integrated procedure is carried out for a hypothetical female population based on census enumerations of June 1960 and June 1970 The age pattern of mortality for the adult years is assumed to be that of Coale Demeny north region with the approximated level of mortality assumed to be consistent with a life expectancy at birth of 50 years Based on external analyses early age survivorship has been determined to have values of l 90 000 and l5 85 000 based on a radix of 100 000 persons at birth Nine regressions have been carried out and all give similar results since all data points seem to appear on a fairly straight line see figure in sample output indicate that the fit based on age group 10 60 may be slightly better than the others and the demographic parameters for that regression should be chosen Comparison of the adjusted and enumerated censuses indicate that the recorded censuses have a slightly younger age distribution than the true 55 O Description of PROJCT Purpose of procedure Projects annually a population by age and sex for up to 100 years based on the initial population by
46. from an external spreadsheet only the values will be pasted i e the formula was not copied 10 Paste Transposed to Worksheet Pastes data from the clipboard to unprotected areas of the worksheet but reverses rows and columns The data on the clipboard may be from any worksheet or from an external spreadsheet Clear Selection from Worksheet Frases selected cells that are not in protected areas Protected cells will be ignored Round Off Selected Input Numbers This function rounds off numbers in selected cells Any number of decimal places from 0 through 10 can be selected This is useful for unformatted columns of numbers that are displaying too many digits after the decimal point This function is used mainly to improve the appearance of the numbers in the data column Selecting a number too low will reduce the data precision Select All Document Output The entire document output is highlighted and ready for copying to the clipboard After pressing Copy from Document Output paste into a word processor Copy from Document Output Copies data from highlighted areas of document output to the clipboard This data may later be pasted into a word processor document Select Font Size for Document Output All newly opened worksheets have the font size of Document Output set to 8 as a default The font size can be set individually for each open worksheet To change the font size of a particular Document Output select one of the worksh
47. ge group can have a value ranging from 60 through 100 When the output is smaller than the input the output table will be compressed When the output is larger than the input the output table will be extrapolated Large extrapolations should be done with caution Check the output thoroughly Age specific mortality data The age specific mortality data themselves No matter whether qx Or M values are used as input the values are input in the same way For ages 5 and over the values must be given for five year age groups For ages under 5 they are given for age groups 0 1 and 1 5 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 If 1 values are given as input the values must be based on a radix lo of 100 000 Values must be given for all ages 0 1 5 10 15 65 with a maximum of age 100 Mortality data must be entered for all ages through age group 60 65 The maximum age group permitted is 95 100 Remember that the final open age group is not entered the m n or q n value for the last age group is calculated by the LIFTB procedure 45 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in LIFTB MPL In this example a set of mortality data for a hypothetical female population is processed and a life table constructed and printed Mortality probabilities i e ngx values are given for age groups up to 75 80 46 L Description of MATCH Purpose of procedure Calculates
48. ges O to 10 then the United Nations General Pattern is better with an average deviation of only 0 4 36 G Description of CORMOR Purpose of procedure Display corresponding probabilities of dying for selected age groups Description of technique This application was added to version 4 3 of MORTPAK and displays Corresponding Mortality Indicators Each row corresponds to probabilities of dying for various pre selected age groups Column headers are for the 9 model life table regions The input data is similar to MATCH and is used to set the level of each model of the model life tables The corresponding mortality values are calculated and displayed in the output table Data required for CORMOR Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male sex or female sex Life table mortality value This value indicates the mortality value being matched For example if a model life table is chosen with 1 5 90000 then the mortality value is set to 90000 Life table column The life table columns are m x n q x n 1 x or e x Life table age The I x or e x columns are for exact age x The m x n or q x n columns are for age groups age x to x n The default age group of interest is entered as 0 age group 0 1 1 1 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 80 80 85 When the third life table column is chos
49. he intercept equals the crude birth rate and e adjusts the chosen model life table to the correct level From introduction of the estimated intercensal birth rate b and survival function p a into equation 2 the correct intercensal age distribution is obtained This correct intercensal age distribution can be compared with an average of the recorded age distribution for an analysis of errors in age recording in the censuses The required input is therefore the population age distributions from two censuses a model life table to be used as the standard and estimates of survivorship to age 5 and age for the intercensal period The last datum permits refined calculation of a life table beginning at age 0 it does not affect calculated crude birth rates life expectancy at age 5 or the estimated intercensal age distribution Up to nine regressions are calculated depending on the number of age groups available providing nine separate sets of estimates The regressions vary according to the range of ages used the initial age is 5 10 or 15 and the terminal age is 60 65 or 70 For more information about this technique see Preston 1983 Data required for PRESTO Title A data description of up to 40 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output 53 Model life table pattern Indicates the model life table pattern to be used The choices are User defined model United Nations Latin American mode
50. ication MATCH It displays a Time Series of varying mortality levels from a selected model life table pattern based on a time series of input values Like in MATCH procedure select a model life table pattern together with an age group and life table column In TIMSER the matching value s to set the level can have as few as one value to as many as one hundred data values Any cell may be left blank and will be skipped when calculating the output table An input label column has been added to help identify the data points but is not used in the calculations The displayed output table consists of one life table column selected by the user Data required for TIMSER Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male sex or female sex Model life table pattern Indicates the model life table pattern to be used The choices are User defined model United Nations Latin American model United Nations Chilean United Nations South Asian United Nations Far East Asian United Nations General Coale Demeny West Coale Demeny North Coale Demeny East Coale Demeny South If the user defined model is chosen the user is supplying the average pattern of mortality to be used as a model see User Defined Model q x n values below The United Nations principal component equations are then used to adjust this pattern to the de
51. ific fertility rates or as the proportionate age distribution of fertility Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 Help notes Data can be given for one or two periods of time If the year of the second census is blank or zero the procedure assumes that the second enumeration is not available Therefore any data given for the second enumeration are not used It doesn t matter whether the fertility pattern is entered as age specific fertility rates or as a proportional distribution The figures are adjusted by the multipliers to give identical results Sample Input Data An example data set is given in FERTPF MPL In this example data on children ever born and recorded fertility rates in five year age groups are available for a hypothetical population from an enumeration of July 1970 The Arriage Brass approach is used to adjust the recorded age specific fertility rates to provide corrected fertility estimates fro July 1970 The recorded age specific fertility rates were tabulated by age of mother at the time of the birth of the child The results imply that the recorded fertility underestimated actual fertility by about 14 per cent and the true total fertility rate is about 6 7 births per woman 42 J Description of ICM Purpose of procedure Estimates single year probabilities of dying qx values for ages under 5 from probabilities of dying in age groups 0 1 1 5 and 5 10 Description of technique E
52. ildren ever born CEB and fertility pattern data ASFP are available from two enumerations age specific fertility rates can be estimated for the one year period following the first enumeration and the one year period preceding the second enumeration by the method described in FERTCB The estimated age specific fertility rates can then be compared to the recorded ASFP data to provide adjustment factors in the same way as is done for the constant fertility one set of data approach The procedure also generates an estimate of the mean age of mother at childbearing in the population The mean age is calculated based on the estimated age 40 specific fertility rates and the 1985 age distribution of the female population for all less developed countries combined according to the United Nations medium variant projections A full description of the Brass and Arriaga approaches for estimating age specific fertility rates from recorded children ever born data and the age pattern of fertility is given in Arriaga 1983 Data required for FERTPF Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Month of first enumeration Indicates the month of the first enumeration Year of first enumeration The year of the first enumeration Fertility pattern of first enumeration Indicates how the fertility pattern from the first enumeration is tabulated whether by age of mother at time o
53. ility of male female survival from age 20 to age 20 n Am Ap is the singulate mean age at marriage for the male female population 5S 5S n is the proportion of the male female population in age group n n 5 whose first spouse is still alive and a n b n c n and d n are age specific constants presented by Hill and Trussell in tabular form For male respondents only values of n varying from 5 to 35 are used corresponding to age groups of male respondents 25 30 30 35 35 40 55 60 and probabilities of female survival from age 20 to 25 20 to 30 20 to 55 For female respondents only values of n varying from 5 to 40 are used corresponding to age groups of female respondents 20 25 25 30 30 35 55 60 and probabilities of male survival from age 20 to 25 20 to 30 20 to 60 The constants a n b n c n and d n were estimated by Hill and Trussell through regression procedures on simulated data which were in turn based on the Coale Demeny model life tables No parallel estimating equations based on the United Nations models have yet been developed Through a second set of simulations Brass and Bamgboye 1981 developed a set of equations which estimate the time reference to which the nl values refer The independent variables necessary for calculating these time references are identical to those used for calculating the survivorship estimates Starting with version 4 3 new output tables are added to display
54. in see the help menu When opening a worksheet two command buttons are on the form Data Entry Help opens an application specific help window and is also available in the menu The button labeled Show Document Output is for opening and closing the document output window Some menu items refer to only the worksheet or only the document output For example Copy from Worksheet will not copy data from document output Copy from Document Output is a separate menu item On the tool bar a W or D is placed within the print and copy icons to distinguish between the worksheet or document output Since the document output is not editable commands such as cut and paste refer to the worksheet only New Opens up a new worksheet with no data entered Since each application has a different layout for entering data and viewing output results an application name must first be chosen Prior to opening the worksheet an application selection form appears The initial list is in alphabetical order and can be scrolled using a scroll bar This list can be shortened by selecting one of the groups at the top of the form Lower in the form application names are listed on the left with a description in the middle and a selection button to the right Open Opens a dialog box for selecting the input file name Starting with version 4 0 of MORTPAK for Windows the default file extension is MPL The input file internally contains
55. ing the recorded rates to data on average number of children ever born tabulated by five year age group of woman The P F approach assumes that fertility has been constant in the past that the pattern although of course not the level of the recorded age specific fertility rates denoted ASFP is correct and that the level of lifetime fertility for the younger cohorts of women provided by the children ever born data CEB are correct Brass simply cumulated and graduated the recorded ASFP data to be in the form of children ever born data Under the assumption of constant fertility these transformed data denoted Fx are comparable to the recorded children ever born data CEB The ratios of CEB F for the younger age groups provide possible adjustment factors to be applied to the recorded fertility rates Arriaga 1983 later modified the method and extended it to the case of changing fertility Rather than transforming the recorded ASFP figures to CEB type figures he suggested transforming the recorded CEB data into estimates of age specific fertility by the method outlined in the program FERTCB These two sets of age specific fertility rates are then cumulated by age and the ratios of these cumulated figures provided possible adjustment factors According to Arriaga 1983 pp 3 8 this modification not only has analytical and diagnostic advantages but also leads to extension of the method to conditions of changing fertility If the ch
56. ingle year f values see steps iv and v in the previous paragraph 38 The procedure also generates an estimate of the mean age of mother at childbearing in the population The mean age is calculated based on the estimated age specific fertility rates and the 1985 age distribution of the female population for all less developed countries combined according to the United Nations medium variant projections Data required for FERTCB Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Month of first enumeration Indicates the month of the first enumeration Year of first enumeration The year of the first enumeration Month of second enumeration Indicates the month of the second enumeration Leave blank if data from only one enumeration are being entered Year of second enumeration The year of the second enumeration Leave blank if data from only one enumeration are being entered When blank or zero the procedure assumes that the second enumeration is not available Therefore any data given for the second enumeration is ignored Children ever born first enumeration The average number of children ever born per woman at the time of the first enumeration Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 Children ever born second enumeration The average number of children ever born per woman at the time of the second enumeration Data are given for age groups 1
57. intercensal mortality and fertility CENCT provides an estimate of the coverage of one census relative to another and hence is an important first step before applying other estimation techniques which assume consistency in coverage between two censuses such as BENHR and PRESTO Based on two populations tabulated by age and the appropriate model life table PRESTO enacts the integrated method developed by Preston 1983 providing consistent estimates of the birth rate life expectancy and intercensal age distributions Finally a simple and easy to use population projection program is included PROSJCT carries out a single year projection of a population by age and sex based on initial male and female populations in five year age groups and assumed levels and changes in fertility mortality and migration CORMOR QFIVE and TIMSER are new applications added to version 4 3 of MORTPAK CORMOR calculates and displays corresponding probabilities of dying for selected age groups and for all nine model life tables TIMSER calculates and displays a time series of a selected model life table column corresponding to an input series of mortality levels QFIVE estimates infant mortality and under 5 mortality by applying the two versions of the Brass method the Trussell version based on the Coale Demeny model life tables and the Palloni Heligman version based on the United Nations model life tables QFIVE was previously distributed for DOS operating system t
58. iption of ORPHAN Purpose of procedure To estimate female adult mortality from tabulations on proportion of population with mothers still alive by age group of respondents Description of technique Brass and Hill 1973 have shown that the proportion of population with mother still alive can be used to generate estimates of adult female mortality Hill and Trussell 1977 later proposed an estimation equation of the form nl25 a n b n AGE c n 5Sp 5 where nl25 is the life table probability of female survival from age 25 to age 25 n AGE is the mean age of childbearing for women in the population 5S s is the proportion of the population in age group n 5 n with mother still alive and a n b n and c n are age specific constants presented by Hill and Trussell in tabular form An approximate estimate of AGE is produced by the procedures FERTCB and FERTPF In practice only values of n varying from 20 to 50 are used corresponding to age groups of respondents 15 20 20 25 25 30 45 50 and probabilities of female survival from age 25 to 45 25 to 50 25 to 75 The constants a n b n and c n were estimated by Hill and Trussell through regression procedures on simulated data which were in turn based on the Coale Demeny model life tables Palloni and Heligman 1985 using the identical formulations later presented revised constants based on each of the five patterns underlying the United Nations models In sum then a
59. irth in each of the five United Nations models and four Coale Demeny models is found by calling the procedure MATCH and printed out For each model a series of life expectancies which are more or less constant by age indicates that the empirical mortality pattern is similar to that model Indices of goodness of fit for age groups 0 to 10 10 and over and 0 and over are calculated and printed by the COMPAR procedure The first index used is b I gt Igy MI N a where a and b indicate the lower and upper age groups being considered E x n indicates the life expectancy at birth in the model which corresponds to the mortality rate in age group x x n M indicates the median of the E x n within the range a b and N is the number of age groups within the range Indices are printed out for age ranges 0 to 10 10 and over and 0 and over The second index printed out is the difference between the median within the age range 0 to 10 and the median within the age range 10 and over In all cases the lower the value of the index the better the fit to the model Special comments The output is limited to age group 75 80 because Coale Demeny tables are limited to 80 Data required for COMPAR Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Sex Indicates whether the m x n or q x n values refer to the male or female sex 35 Type of mortality data Indicates whether
60. is not entered As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 67 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in UNABR MPL In this example a set of mortality probabilities in conventional age groups are given as input and an unabridged life table in the form of single year qx and lx values is calculated and printed The mortality probabilities are given for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 up through 70 75 68 T Description of WIDOW Purpose of procedure Indirect estimation of male and female adult mortality from data on proportion of the ever married population whose first spouse is still living tabulated by age of respondent and assumption of a United Nations or Coale Demeny model life table pattern Description of technique Hill 1977 has shown that the proportion of the ever married male population whose first wife is still alive can be used to estimate female mortality and in parallel the proportion of the ever married female population whose first husband is still alive can be used to estimate male mortality Hill and Trussell 1977 later proposed estimation equations of the form f m n 20 a n b n AL c mdA din Sa for estimating female mortality from data reported by ever married males and m f n20 a n b n A c na d n Ss for estimating male mortality from data reported by ever married females were l 29 als is the life table probab
61. itial projection period and the final projection period If no migration put 0 because blanks are treated as missing values Values for intermediate life expectancy at birth are optional Values that are left blank will be calculated by linear interpolation e 0 males Life expectancy at birth for males are required for the initial projection period and the final projection period Values for intermediate life expectancy at birth are optional Values that are left blank will be calculated by linear interpolation Life expectancies at birth for males must be between 20 and 92 5 years e 0 females Life expectancy at birth for females are required for the initial projection period and the final projection period Values for intermediate life expectancy at birth are optional Values that are left blank will be calculated by linear interpolation Life expectancies at birth for females must be between 20 and 92 5 years Current fertility pattern The age specific fertility rates corresponding to the first projection year Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 The age specific fertility rates must be consistent with the total fertility rate for the first projection period given above 58 Projected fertility pattern The age specific fertility rates corresponding to the last projection year Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 The age specific fertility rates must be consistent with the total fertilit
62. l United Nations Chilean United Nations South Asian United Nations Far East Asian United Nations General Coale Demeny West Coale Demeny North Coale Demeny East Coale Demeny South If a user defined model is selected the user is supplying the average pattern of mortality to be used as a model see User Defined Model below Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male or female sex The life table choice is indicated by designating a life table column the age group of interest and the life table mortality value Life table mortality value This value indicates the mortality value being matched For example if a model life table is chosen with ls 90000 then the life table column is set to 3 age is set to 5 and the mortality value is set to 90000 Life table column The life table columns are ymx nx lx or ex Life table age The 1 or ex columns are for exact age x The mx or qx columns are for age groups therefore the age group of interest is entered as 0 age group 0 1 1 1 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 80 80 85 When the third life table column is chosen i e 1x ages 2 3 or 4 may also be chosen to indicate matching on ly 13 or l4 The other columns may not use ages 2 3 or 4 Probability of surviving from birth to age 1 Probability of surviving from birth to age 1 in the country being studied Its purpose is to allow the printing of a life table beginning with age 0 It can be calculate
63. m there the results can be edited for better presentation on paper For example some outputs are too wide to fit within 13 Chart the margins and word wrapping occurs The page orientation can be switched from portrait to landscape and margins can be reduced If necessary the font size can be adjusted to better fit the margins Starting with version 4 3 batch processing was added to MORTPAK for selected applications Batch processing requires data files to be from version 4 0 or later so MORTPAK can recognize the application corresponding to the data If the application does not support batch processing a message will be displayed in the output file When one output file is desired for each input file then choose Select Data to Create CSV Output files from the Run menu To merge all the output into one data file then choose Select Data for Merged Output CSV file from the Run menu The output data uses comma separated value format i e csv so that the output data can be ready for import into spreadsheets and databases The first row of the output file is a column header to define each column of the data below it The output data uses the same style of a database table Therefore many data parameters are repeated in each row This is useful for sorting and filtering data within a spreadsheet To create a chart simply highlight the necessary number column of numbers and then select on of the chart type from the m
64. mortality value Life table mortality value This value indicates the mortality value being matched For example if a model life table is chosen with ls 90000 then the mortality value is set to 90000 Life table column The life table columns are m qx lx or ex Life table age The 1 or e columns are for exact age x The mx or qx columns are for age groups therefore the age group of interest is entered as 0 age group 0 1 1 1 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 80 80 85 When the third life table column is chosen i e lx ages 2 3 or 4 may also be chosen to indicate matching on ly 13 or l4 The other columns may not use ages 2 3 or 4 Starting with 4 3 if the new models are chosen and q x n or m x n is selected then the value of n may be set to any valid value A blank or zero value will be set to the default value Value of final life table and increment between life tables When a series of model life tables are desired values for the final life table and the increment between tables must also be given A maximum of 50 tables can be requested through this option For example if a series of model life tables is desired in which es varies from 40 to 60 years at five year intervals we would choose life table column as e x the age as 5 the model life table mortality value as 40 0 the final mortality value as 60 0 and the increment as 5 0 Label for user defined model This variable is used only if the model lif
65. n values given as input Simply the procedure is one of graduation with respect to a standard When only one q x n value is given this program presents results identical to that of the procedure MATCH The one component model life table i e those presented in United Nations 1982 annex I is presented as well as the adjusted two and three component tables However at least two q x n values must be given for estimation of the two component table and at least three values for the three component table In place of the United Nations model an alternative model supplied by the user can be given as input and the best fit of the empirical data to that model will be calculated for a more detailed description of the methodology see United Nations 1982 chap IV Starting with version 4 3 new United Nations or new Coale Demeny models can be selected The level of these new models is determined by the closest fit to the input data before the best fit regressions are applied The new models also permit m x n to be selected as input Data required for BESTFT Title A data description of up to 40 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Model life table pattern Indicate the model life table pattern to be used The choices are User defined model UN Latin American model UN Chilean UN South Asian UN Far East Asian UN General Coale Demeny West Coale Demeny North Coale Demeny East Coale Demeny South
66. n their name Help Contents Version 4 0 Opens up the original help file Three tabs are available to navigate the help file by table of contents index or by word search The contents tab default tab is organized by topic The index tab list topics in alphabetical order The search tab is for finding text located within the 15 topic All topics having at least one match are then listed Select the topic to display All matches are shown highlighted within the topic Updates Since Version 4 0 Opens up the help file which describes the updates which took place since version 4 0 Getting Started Opens up the help file and displays the getting started page This is intended for new users and is a duplicate of what is shown when MORTPAK starts up Data Entry Help Opens up the help file with the selected chapter describing the input variables for the current worksheet If a worksheet is not open then the help file opens with a page describing the data entry help and reminds the user that an active worksheet needs to be opened first This help can also be activated from a command button on the worksheet form How to Print Manual Contains instructions for printing the user manual About MORTAK Copyright related information for MORTPAK for Windows version 4 0 16 C The Worksheets The new MORTPAK worksheets are designed to display the input and output data They look similar to spreadsheets but do not have the functionali
67. ntry Worksheet output is exhibited To see the document output click on the button The document output will cover all or part of the worksheet depending on the option chosen The percentage of the worksheet covered by the document output can be set in MORTPAK In the menu choose View then Options and click on the General Choices tab The percentage of the worksheet covered by the document output can be set to any number between 15 per cent and 100 per cent The space on the screen allotted to the worksheet and document output can also be adjusted by moving the cursor above the document output so that the cursor changes into and up and down arrow Then drag the divider lower or higher as desired The grid uses three colors One color is for protected cells These cells have data labels and cannot be overridden Another color is for input data These fields show where input data is to be placed Below the protected area are cells with a white background This area is provided as a general working or storage area For example a table can be made in this area from a series of outputs For example an input value can be repeatedly incremented and part of the output can be copied to the white areas of the worksheet Then the user can analyze how the output relates to the input For fancier graphs or data calculations this table can then be copied to the clipboard and pasted into a spreadsheet 17 D Special Issues At the bottom
68. ogether with the manual Step by Step Guide to the Estimation of Child Mortality which is available for download B What s new in MORTPAK for Windows Version 4 0 Data entry is now on worksheets that resemble spreadsheets but do not have the functionality of a full spreadsheet These worksheets were designed to easily copy data to and from your spreadsheet For example after creating a new worksheet a user might copy some of the data from a spreadsheet and paste it into the worksheet After running the selected MORTPAK application all or part of the results can be copied and pasted into a spreadsheet for further calculation or for creating graphs Output data now has two styles The traditional MORTPAK style is called document output It is ready for exporting to a word processor and printing in a camera ready format The output is also placed onto the worksheet and is handy for copying results into a spreadsheet Some applications were enhanced LIFTB can accept I x as input values and outputs can have any open age group regardless of input data A larger open age group will result in the output table being extrapolated Large extrapolations should be done with caution Check the output thoroughly PROJECT now uses migration data The older versions of MORTPAK used data files with fixed width data fields which limited the size and precision of the numbers The data in the new input data files can have any size or precision The
69. on click on the worksheet form outside of the cell grid If you click on one of the worksheet cells the cursor will move there and the selection will be cancelled The shortcut key ctrl a always selects the entire worksheet but selects all of document output only when the cursor is in the document output box 21 ll DESCRIPTION OF THE PROCEDURES A Description of BENHR Purpose of procedure Estimates the completeness of adult death registration based on population age distributions from two censuses and registered deaths by age for the intercensal period Description of technique Bennett and Horiuchi 1981 have shown that in a closed population the observed age distribution of deaths can be used in combination with two population age distributions and an age specific growth rate factor to calculate the completeness of death registration above a certain age x the age beyond which death registration can be assumed to be equally complete The growth rate factors are calculated from age specific intercensal population growth rates The method essentially estimates completeness of death registration by using the growth rate transformed registered deaths to generate an independent estimate of the average intercensal population at an age above x the ratio of this figure to that calculated from the two observed censuses provides an estimate of completeness of death registration above age x The technique therefore provides a seri
70. ortion of the population aged a b is the crude birth rate r x is the growth rate of persons age x and p a is the probability of survival to age a If we assume that p a in equation 1 describes the current life table for the population described by equation 2 we can solve equation 1 for p a substitute into equation 2 and after further manipulation 52 a Se xyax o 1 e l p a 4 a a c a b b p a As estimates of p 5 the probability of surviving to age 5 are generally available from children ever born children surviving tabulations see CEBCS the above equation can be refined as a Se x dx ss p s e oo A ae BAA tie 3 c a b b 5P where a gt 5 and 5p a indicates that the radix of the life table is unity at age 5 The variable on the left hand side of equation 3 can be estimated on an intercensal basis from the age distributions in two censuses With choice of life table from a model life table pattern either a United Nations Coale Demeny or user designated pattern appropriate to the country under study the quantity in brackets on the right hand side can be calculated and the left hand side of equation 3 can be regressed on the right hand side The regression minimizes the sum of squared relative differences between observed and predicted values The estimated regression parameters provide estimates of the demographic parameters during the intercensal period the reciprocal of t
71. provides an estimate of the completeness of death registration Intercensal deaths can be provided in either of two ways As one option a United Nations Coale Demeny or user designated model life table considered appropriate to the intercensal period is provided and the computer program estimates intercensal deaths from the life table central death rates and the two population age distributions In the second option absolute numbers of deaths by age for the intercensal period are given as input Data required for CENCT Title A data description of up to 40 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Deaths Indicates the type of mortality data given as input either deaths are calculated by a model life table or deaths are calculated by the given intercensal deaths by age Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male or female sex Final open age group Indicates the final open age group given for the first and second populations and for the intercensal deaths The final open age group must be between 60 and 85 Model life table pattern This variable is used only if Deaths are given through a model life table It indicates the model life table pattern to be used The choices are User defined model UN Latin American model UN Chilean UN South Asian UN Far East Asian UN General Coale Demeny West Coale Demeny North Coale Demeny East Coale Demeny South 30 If intercensal
72. ps 0 1 1 5 5 10 Asa minimum q x n values must be given through age group 60 65 as a maximum through age group 80 85 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Month of first enumeration Indicates the month that the first census was taken Year of first enumeration The year the first census was taken for example 1960 Month of second enumeration Indicates the month that the second census was taken Year of second enumeration The year the second census was taken for example 1970 Population of first census The population by age for the first census Data are for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open given age group available Population of second census The population by age for the second census Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available 31 Intercensal deaths This variable is used only if the user indicates the choice of calculating deaths by Intercensal Deaths These values are the registered deaths for the intercensal period Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available Sample Input Data An example data set is given in CENCT MPL In this example the completeness of enumeration of the June 1960 census relative to the June 1972 census for a hypothetical female population is estimated Mortality data are given as the absolute number of deaths by
73. q 15 45 and q 15 35 values An output column was added to display reference dates in numeric decimal format This is convenient for example if displaying x y graphs 69 Data required for WIDOW Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Month Indicates the month of the enumeration Year The year of the enumeration for example 1970 Sex Indicates the sex of the respondent If male is selected then the respondents are males and the life table refers to females If female is selected then the respondents are female and the life table refers to males Singulate mean age at marriage males The singulate mean age at marriage for males Singulate mean age at marriage females The singulate mean age at marriage for females Proportion with spouse still alive The proportion of population whose spouse is still alive Data are given for age groups 20 25 25 30 up to 55 60 When SEX males is selected the value for age group 20 25 is not needed Help notes If the input data were tabulated for male respondents you may leave blank the proportion with spouse still alive for age group 20 25 It is not used in the calculations Singulate mean age at marriage S is calculated as 304 10 PS 15 20 4PS 20 25 4 PS 45 50 50 PS 45 50 PS 50 55 2 PS 45 50 PS 50 55 where PS x y is the proportion single in age group x to y
74. q x n m x n or I x values are being given as input This selection is used to describe the age specific mortality data Changing the data type will not convert the age specific mortality data from one type to another Age specific mortality data The age specific mortality data themselves No matter whether q x n or m x n values are used as input the values are input in the same way For ages 5 and over the values must be given for five year age groups For ages under 5 they are given for age groups 0 1 and 1 5 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Mortality data must be entered for all ages through age group 60 65 The maximum age group permitted is 75 80 Remember that the final open age group is not entered the m n or q n value for the last age group is not used by the COMPAR procedure Starting with version 4 3 q x n values can be substituted with 1 x values Sample Input Data An example data set is given in COMPAR MPL In this example a set of q x n values for a hypothetical female population is read in Data are supplied for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 up to 75 80 The empirical data are shown by the output to be most similar to that of the Coale Demeny North region This was determined by observing that its average deviation from the median for all age groups is 1 9 the lowest value of all regions However if only the childhood ages are under consideration a
75. r that can open RTF files Page Setup For setting print margins and selecting the portrait or landscape page orientation Can also select another printer paper source and paper size For page setup to function at least one printer driver must be installed Print Worksheet Print Preview Shows how the output will appear before printing This follows the same format at Print Worksheet below Not all worksheet cells are printed The cells selected for printing are pre determined for each application For customized selections highlight the cells and print with Print Selection from the menu Selected pages can also be printed from here Print Worksheet For printing a predetermined area of the currently active worksheet The predetermined print area is chosen specific for each application A dialog box will appear for selecting a printer selecting paper source and paper size or setting portrait or landscape page orientation For setting margins use Page Setup For printing a customized selection of cells use Print Selection Print Selection For printing selected areas of the worksheet These appear highlighted on the worksheet Print Selected Pages Use this for printing selected pages If unsure of the page numbers use print preview and print the selected pages from there Print Document Output For printing document output Choose the smallest font size if the output table is wide and the paper is in po
76. robability of someone exact age x dying before exact age x 1 and A B H are parameters to be estimated The parameters are estimated by least squares criteria minimizing the sum of squares of the proportional differences of the fitted from the observed mortality probabilities after regrouping into age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 10 15 The least squares fitting criterion produces a smoothed set of nqx values and single year qx values which aggregate to the smoothed qx values The fit is usually very good and this procedure appears to provide excellent fits for the additional life table columns also The output presents the qx values by age group given as input labelled OBSERVED the graduated qx values from the interpolation formula labelled FITTED and the deviations absolute and proportional of the two sets This allows the user to see the extent of graduation The unabridged life table itself is presented as qx Mx lx and ex values for single years of age 0 100 The estimated values of the parameters A H are also given Data required for UNABR Title A heading of up to 72 characters to be printed at the top of the page of output q x n The empirical set of nqx values Input of mx values are not permitted The values must be given for those age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 As a minimum qx values must be given through age group 60 65 as a maximum through age group 80 85 The final open age group
77. rtrait mode For better results it is recommended to first export into a word processor and customize the output for best appearance Last four input files This group contains the last four input files that were opened As a convenience press any of these to open the input file For a new installation of MORTPAK this group will appear empty Exit To exit MORTPAK Edit Undo Whenever data is cut from or pasted to the worksheet MORTPAK will first save the grid contents in case it is necessary to undo the change If a worksheet cell is not being edited when Undo is pressed Undo will restore the worksheet to what was saved previously If a worksheet cell is being edited Undo will restore only that cell to its previous contents Select All Worksheet Cells Every cell is selected and highlighted This is useful for copying the entire worksheet to the clipboard and later pasting it into a spreadsheet Cut from Worksheet Places data from highlighted cells onto the clipboard and erases only those cells that are not in protected areas This data may later be pasted into any worksheet or external spreadsheet Copy from Worksheet Copies data from highlighted cells to the clipboard This data may later be pasted into any worksheet or external spreadsheet Paste to Worksheet Pastes data from the clipboard into unprotected areas of the worksheet The data on the clipboard may be from any worksheet or from an external spreadsheet When pasted
78. s based on the ultimate life tables prepared by the United Nations Population Division see United Nations 1989b p 19 The procedure UNABR is used to calculate single year probabilities of dying 1qx for every projection year from those in the standard age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 10 15 With these 1qx values single year survival ratios S and survivors to age a p a can be calculated for each projection year Like life expectancy total fertility rates TFR must be given as input for the initial and final projection years TFR values for intermediate projection years are given at the option of the user The TFR for omitted years is calculated by linear interpolation Age specific fertility rates ASFR are provided for the initial and final projection years The age specific fertility rates for intermediate years are calculated by linear interpolation with respect to corresponding values of the TFR Like life expectancy migration for males and females must be given as input for the initial and final projection years migration values for intermediate projection years 56 are given at the option of the user The migration for omitted years is calculated by linear interpolation Step 2 Initial male and female populations are provided in five year age groups In order to carry out single year population projections data are needed in single year age groups Population by single years of age are interpolated using Beers mul
79. s for age group 5 and over These regressions were estimated from a set of data points simulated from stable populations generated from male and female model life tables from the United Nations General Pattern with life expectancy at birth varying from 35 years to 75 years 22 at one year intervals in conjunction with intrinsic growth rates varying from 015 to 035 at intervals of 005 The regression equations are e 60 9 345 12 403 D60 D5 e 65 7 535 10 072 D60 D5 e 70 6 049 7 918 D60 D5 e 75 4 890 5 965 D60 D5 e 80 4 060 4 162 D60 D5 e 85 3 379 2 836 D60 D5 where e a is life expectancy at age a and D60 D5 is the ratio of intercensal registered deaths for age group 60 to age group 5 Data required for BENHR Title A heading of up to 72 characters to be printed above the calculated table Final open age group Indicates the final open age group given for the first and second populations and for the intercensal deaths The final open age group must be between 60 and 85 Month of first enumeration Indicates the month that the first census was taken Year of first enumeration The year the first census was taken for example 1960 Month of second enumeration Indicates the month that the second census was taken Year of second enumeration The year the second census was taken for example 1970 Population of first census The population by age for the firs
80. s nSx number of person years lived at ages x and older Usual notation is Tx expectation of life at age x Usual notation is ex average number of years lived in the age interval x x n by those dying during that age interval Usual notation is nax 44 The procedure for constructing the life table from the m or nqx values is based on a method developed by Greville 1943 To complete the life table the qx values are extrapolated until no survivors remain by fitting a Makeham function through the last six ndx l nqx values available United Nations 1982 p 31 Data required for LIFTB Title A heading of up to 72 characters to be printed above the calculated life table Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male or female sex This variable is used for calculating the first two separation factors Qao and 4a Type of mortality data Indicates whether qx m or 1 values are being given as input This selection is used to describe the age specific mortality data Changing the data type will not convert the age specific mortality data from one type to another Output open age group This open age group refers to the output table only The open age group for the input is still determined from the last entry of the age specific mortality data The default value is same as input where the input and output use the same open age group and is consistent with earlier versions of MORTPAK The output open a
81. sed on model life tables si ccs sssdivevsdecteeendtvaeeiavoese yes 61 Q STABLE Calculation of a stable population eee eeeeeeesrene eee 63 R TIMSER Display a time series of a selected model life table column corresponding to a input series of mortality levels 65 S UNABR Graduation of a set of age specific probabilities By Eee E dasaug ch E ENN T 67 T WIDOW Indirect estimation of male and female adult mortality from widowhood data eeeeeeeeteee eee eee 69 Referee Sie ses tach sce EEE sah ss Saves EEE ae net eh eee ANE E EEE eee 72 INTRODUCTION A The Demographic Procedures The present volume presents a set of 20 computer programs for undertaking demographic analyses in developing countries including empirical and model life table construction graduation of mortality data mortality and fertility estimation evaluation of census coverage and age distributions and population projections The 20 demographic procedures included have been selected by the Population Division as useful for evaluating demographic data from censuses and surveys and preparing reliable estimates of demographic parameters These procedures incorporate techniques for evaluation and estimation of demographic data particularly those techniques that incorporate the United Nations model life table system United Nations 1982 and generalized stable population equations Preston and Coale 1982 When selecting a new application from the men
82. selected the user is supplying the average pattern of mortality to be used as a model see user defined model for males and females below The United Nations principal component equations are then used to adjust this pattern to the desired mortality level Male base population The male population by age for the base population Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available The number of age groups must be consistent with the indicated open age group Female base population The female population by age for the base population Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available The number of age groups must be consistent with the indicated open age group Total fertility rate Total fertility rates are required for the initial projection period and the final projection period Intermediate total fertility rates are optional Values that are blank will be calculated by linear interpolation Total fertility rates are given on a per woman basis for example 6 10 Net male migrants Net migrants for males are required for the initial projection period and the final projection period If no migration put O because blanks are treated as missing values Values for intermediate life expectancy at birth are optional Values that are left blank will be calculated by linear interpolation Net female migrants Net migrants for females are required for the in
83. sired mortality level 65 New model life tables are available for the United Nations and Coale Demeny model life tables These tables were updated and are available up to age group 100 Label for user defined model This variable is used only if the model life table pattern chosen is User defined model It is a name for the model supplied by the user and is included in the table heading User defined model q x n values This variable is used only if the model life table pattern chosen is User defined model It consists of model q x n values supplied by the user The values must be given for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 As a minimum q x n values must be given through age group 60 65 as a maximum through age group 80 85 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Life table column The life table columns are m x n q x n 1 x or e x Life table age The 1 x or e x columns are for exact age x The m x n or q x n columns are for age groups The default age group of interest is entered as 0 age group 0 1 1 1 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 80 80 85 When the third life table column is chosen i1 e 1 x ages 2 3 or 4 may also be chosen to indicate matching on 1 2 1 3 or 1 4 The other columns may not use ages 2 3 or 4 Life table age group interval When inputting m x n or q x n the value of n may now be entered as input In previous versions o
84. stimates of single year mortality under age 5 are generated using the three parameter interpolation formula In In qx In In ti t3 In x t2 where x is the age and t t2 and t3 are chosen so that the interpolation equation is consistent with given values of 1qo 4qi and 5qs The equation was chosen after observation that in a wide range of countries In In 1qx values were linearly related to In x for ages 1 through 7 or 8 years The addition of the parameter t2 brought infant mortality in line with the linear relationship Heligman and Pollard 1980 Probabilities of dying qx by single years of age for ages under 5 are presented along with the corresponding number of survivors at each age lx Data required for ICM Title A heading of up to 72 characters to be printed at the top of the page of output q x n The empirical set of qx values for age groups 0 1 1 5 and 5 10 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in ICM MPL In this example probabilities of dying nqx values for ages 0 1 1 5 and 5 10 are given as input and interpolated 14x values and corresponding lx values for ages 0 1 2 3 and 4 are calculated and printed 43 K Description of LIFTB Purpose of procedure Construction of a life table based on a set of age specific central death rates amx values age specific probabilities of d
85. t census Data are for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open given age group available Population of second census The population by age for the second census Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available Intercensal deaths Registered deaths for the intercensal period Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available Sample Input Data An example data set is given in BENHR MPL In this example estimated completeness of death registration and adjusted life expectancies for a hypothetical female population are calculated and printed To calculate the completeness of death registration e 80 was estimated to be 5 481 years see footnote 1 in the sample output It is used for calculation purposes only and 23 not intended as the actual life expectancy at age 80 Footnote 2 indicates that death registration is 0 682 per cent complete this value is used to adjust the death rates These adjusted death rates are then used to calculate the life table 24 B Description of BESTFT Purpose of procedure To find the one two or three component United Nations or Coale Demeny model life table which best fits one or more probabilities of dying q x n values or m x n given as input Description of technique Using least squares criteria the United Nations model life table of a given pattern is found which best fits one or more q x
86. ted Nations Far East Asian United Nations General Coale Demeny West Coale Demeny North Coale Demeny East Coale Demeny South Sex Indicates whether the male or female population is being considered e 20 Life expectancy at age 20 in the population under study 1 The probability of surviving to age 1 times 100 000 in the population under study 5 _ The probability of surviving to age 5 times 100 000 in the population under study Help notes Either 1 1 or 1 5 or both must be entered but both cannot be left blank They can be calculated as follows 1 1 100000 1 q 0 1 1 5 100000 1 q 0 1 1 q 1 4 Sample Input Data An example data set is given in COMBIN MPL In this example data are given for a hypothetical population with a life expectancy at age 20 of 50 years In this data set the Latin American pattern is combined with a value of 1 of 78000 and a value of 1 of 85000 34 F Description of COMPAR Purpose of procedure Compares empirical set of age specific central death rates m x n values or age specific probabilities of dying q x n values to all United Nations and Coale Demeny model life table patterns and prints out indices of similarity The q x n values can be substituted with 1 x values as input Description of technique For each age specific m x n or q x n value given as input for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 10 15 the corresponding life expectancy at b
87. ternal orphanhood or widowhood techniques to estimate levels of adult mortality The procedure COMBIN combines early age mortality estimates perhaps produced by CEBCS with adult mortality estimates perhaps produced by ORPHAN and WIDOW and produces a full consistent life table The technique BENHR is an application of the Bennett Horiuchi 1981 technique it exploits the generalized stable population equation to estimate the completeness of death registration using population age distributions from two censuses and intercensal registered deaths Two fertility estimation techniques are included FERTCB estimates age specific fertility rates based on tabulations of average number of children ever born by age of woman The essential methodology was developed by G Mortara 1949 The variation included here was proposed by Arriaga 1983 it has the advantage of providing estimates of fertility change over time In the same 1983 article Arriaga presented an extension of the P F technique originally developed by Brass Brass and others 1968 The Arriaga extension presented in FERTPF allows the demographer to estimate fertility at two points in time under conditions of fertility change Children ever born data and the pattern of age specific fertility is necessary from two enumerations when fertility has not been constant CENCT and PRESTO provide techniques for evaluating relative coverage and age recording in censuses as well as estimates of
88. tes of intercensal mortality fertility and age distribution based on recorded age distributions from two censuses and assumption of a United Nations Coale Demeny or user designated model life table pattern Starting in version 4 3 new output tables were added to display q 15 45 and q 15 35 values Description of technique Preston 1983 has demonstrated a simple method for estimating intercensal mortality fertility and age distributions in a closed population based on two recorded census age distributions and assumption of a model life table pattern The method is referred to as the integrated method because it combines Brass s one parameter logit mortality system Brass and others 1968 with the generalized stable population equation Preston and Coale 1982 The one parameter a Brass system relates a chosen model life table referred to as the standard to any other life table within the same model life table system according to the equation 1 pla 1 p_ a oo a DES 1 p a P a where p a is the probability of surviving to age a in the model life table p a is the corresponding value for any other life table within the same system and a is a parameter The generalized stable population equation applies to any closed population and relates the current age distribution to current levels of mortality fertility and age specific growth rates Namely a T S e xya c a be z 2 pla 2 where c a is the prop
89. th TESISHALLON assasi asiain a ai iks 22 B BESTFT Principal component fit to United Nations model TEES GABLES ioci n aa aua 25 C CEBCS Indirection estimation of infant and child mortality 27 D CENCT Estimation of completeness of censuses 0 29 E COMBIN Calculation of a life table from life expectancy at age 20 and an estimate of early age survivorship 33 F COMPAR Comparison of empirical mortality rates to those from model life tables n 35 G CORMOR Display corresponding probabilities of dying for selected age groups s seisdcacisdeccatesisecatensssetuesadnnsneees 37 H FERTCB Estimation of age specific fertility rates from data on children ever born sians ensenis ogres 38 iv Page I FERTPF Estimation of age specific fertility rates from data on children ever born and the age pattern of fertility 40 J ICM Estimation of single year probabilities of dying from ages under AV j1 2 c ceed dads heen 43 K LIFTB Construction of a life table oo ee eee eeteceteeeereeee eee 44 L MATCH Calculation of a model life table oo eee eee 47 M ORPHAN Indirect estimation of female adult mortality from OTPMANMOOC datassa beadanelov E S ees 50 N PRESTO Integrated estimation of intercensal mortality fertility and age distribution eee eeeeeeeeeereeee eee 52 O PROJCT Calculation of a population projection eee eee 56 P QFIVE Indirect estimation of infant and under 5 mortality ba
90. the application name associated with the input data Simply choosing the file name will open the correctly formatted worksheet and fill in the input data into the correct location Data from earlier versions of MORTPAK before version 4 0 can also be opened but does not contain the application name within the file Therefore the application name must be given before the data is imported into the worksheet This data can be saved in the new format by using Save As from the menu Note the number of open worksheets is limited to 25 Close This command closes the currently active worksheet Save Input Data Saves the currently active worksheet without changing the current file name Whenever a new worksheet is created input data is blank it has no file name The listed file name will be Untitled MPL To save these worksheets a file name must be given If file Save is chosen instead of file Save As MORTPAK will automatically switch to file Save As Save Input Data As Saves the currently active worksheet A dialog box opens with the current file name as a default Any name can be chosen except Untitled MPL or the name used by another open worksheet Save Document Output rtf The document output is in a format similar to early versions of MORTPAK The advantage of saving document output as an RTF file is that it keeps some of the word processing formats It can easily be imported into a word processo
91. thers fertility has changed little and stable population analysis remains useful for evaluation of age distributions and rough approximation of birth and death rates However for countries whose fertility decline is recent and mortality change has not greatly altered the adult age distribution STABLE could be useful for evaluating age distributions and studying population dynamics among adults In addition the STABLE program is useful for static simulation of the effects of changed growth rates and or mortality rates on age distribution The applications MATCH COMPAR and BESTFT construct model life tables and compare or graduate empirical data with respect to a model life table The procedure MATCH not only generates any United Nations or Coale and Demeny model life table but also enables the entering of a user designated mortality pattern which then can be adjusted to correspond to any desired level This user designated model may be a pattern from a third model life table system such as the Brass standard Brass and others 1968 but perhaps most importantly can be an age pattern of mortality for a particular country In the latter case a demographer can generate a model life table system specific for a country of interest by using MATCH to construct a series of life tables at different levels of life expectancy all consistent with the country s average pattern Comparison of an empirical set of age specific mortality rates to model life table pa
92. tion with mother alive The proportion of population with mother still alive Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 up to 45 50 Children ever born The average number of children ever born to a woman Data are given for age groups 15 20 20 25 and 25 30 Only the first three age groups from the children ever born tabulations are required The other four age groups are not used and are not entered Help Note The mean age of mother at childbearing M in the population can be calculated from births tabulated by age of mother at time of birth as 17 5 B 15 20 22 5 B 20 25 27 5 B 25 30 47 5 B 45 50 M B 15 20 B 20 25 B 25 30 B 45 50 where B x y is the number of births to women in age group x to y at the time of birth An approximate estimate of M can be calculated from children ever born data through FERTCB or through FERTPF Sample Input Data An example data set is given in ORPHAN MPL In this example estimates of adult female mortality and corresponding life expectancies for a hypothetical population are calculated and printed The average age at childbearing is 26 00 and the proportion of the population with mother still alive is given for age groups 15 20 20 25 up to 45 50 To calculate the reference dates the average number of children ever born for age groups 15 20 20 25 and 25 30 are given 51 N Description of PRESTO Purpose of procedure Provides integrated estima
93. tipliers see Beers 1945 Data required for PROJCT Title A data description of up to 40 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Year of base population Indicates the year for the starting date of the projection for example 1985 Month of base population Indicates the month for the starting date of the projection Day of base population Indicates the day of the month for the starting date of the projection Value must be between 1 and 31 End year of projection Indicates the ending year of the projection for example 2000 Display print projection results every x years Indicates the print cycle for the projection results For example if a value of 5 is given projections results are printed every fifth projection year Final open age group of base population Indicates the final open age group for the male and female population The population open age group must be at a minimum of 65 and at a maximum of 85 Sex ratio at birth Sex ratio at birth e g 1 05 The sex ratio at birth must be between 0 75 and 1 5 Model life table pattern Indicates the model life table pattern to be used The choices are User defined model United Nations Latin American model United Nations Chilean United Nations South Asian United Nations Far East Asian United Nations general Coale Demeny West Coale Demeny North Coale Demeny East Coale Demeny South 57 If a user defined model is
94. tterns through COMPAR aids the demographer in the choice of a model life table However as data quality improves the demographer will wish to retain as many characteristics of the original data as possible COMPAR is then very useful for examining deviations of empirical mortality patterns from the models due to either true differences in age patterns or to data errors Similarly BESTFT offers the opportunity to graduate observed age specific mortality rates with respect to a model life table standard either to smooth a series of observed rates or to estimate consistent rates for age groups in which data are lacking The procedures UNABR and ICM graduate mortality rates in traditional age grouping into single year values UNABR considers the entire age range and ICM under age 10 only The procedures are of immediate use when undertaking single year population projections or special studies of specific age groups such as the school age population or the elderly The next group of programs all relate to indirect estimation of demographic parameters The five procedures of CEBCS ORPHAN WIDOW COMBIN and BENHR are mortality specific CEBCS provides estimates of infant and child mortality based on data of children ever born and children surviving tabulated by duration of her marriage Data tabulation by age of mother is no longer available within CEBCS because it was replaced by the QFIVE procedure ORPHAN and WIDOW carry out variations of the ma
95. ty of spreadsheets Input and output data on the worksheet can be exported to a spreadsheet program Simply select and copy the data from the worksheet into the clipboard and paste it into the spreadsheet All worksheets have a grid inserted within the worksheet form A grid is specifically designed for each MORTPAK application The worksheet forms have common characteristics The application name is placed within the caption of the worksheet Below the caption is the input file name together with the disk drive and path where the file is located File names containing Untitled MPL are reserved for files that were not yet given a name For example a new worksheet uses Untitled MPL to show that it is waiting for its real name From the menu use File Save As to save the file onto disk with its correct name Below the file name is the date when the worksheet was last updated or new worksheets the creation date To the right is a button called Data Entry Help which opens a floating help window This help is specific to the selected application and provides help for data input For example it might supply more details for the column labels including units and valid numeric ranges Above the grid is a one line brief description of the selected application To the right is a second button that toggles between Show Document Output and Show Data Entry Worksheet Output Immediately after running an application the Data E
96. u a window in table form presents a brief description of the procedures categorized according to their major functions life table and stable population construction model life table construction graduation of mortality data indirect mortality estimation indirect fertility estimation other estimation procedures and population projections The package emphasizes mortality estimation reflecting the larger number of techniques available and the further advanced mortality estimation is compared to that of other demographic components Of the nine chapters in the United Nations manual on Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation United Nations 1983 five are dedicated solely and two partially to mortality analysis The LIFTB and STABLE programs calculate empirical life tables and stable populations respectively based on age specific mortality rates plus in the latter case an intrinsic growth rate The life table method used is based on the approach of Greville 1943 which permits calculation of age specific separation factors based on the age pattern of the mortality rates themselves It is hence potentially more accurate than methods which assume constant separation factors and more robust under developing country circumstances than methods which estimate separation factors based on population age distributions Although fertility decline is rendering calculation of stable populations less applicable for many countries for o
97. w the new colors unless the worksheet is closed and re opened In the File Locations tab default file locations can be selected for MORTPAK software and input data Whenever MORTPAK is started the input dialog box opens with the default path chosen in the File Locations tab Afterwards the input dialog 12 Application Run box opens with the path of the last opened file If MORTPAK is restarted the input dialog box opens with the path from the File Locations tab The General Choices tab has check boxes that are self described Scale worksheet column width indicates how wide to make the columns A value of 100 is the standard size If large fonts are chosen from Windows it might be necessary to choose a larger column width so that worksheet cells will fit within the box The percentage of the window showing document style output is also set through the Options menu All worksheets have two displays the worksheet grid and the document output When the document output is open and displayed it can take up 15 to 100 of the screen Opened worksheets can later be set individually by dragging the horizontal bar above document output in the up or down direction Application name list This menu item is for selecting new worksheets For those familiar with the application names this is the fastest way to select them Description This choice is the same as New from the menu A selection form is opened with a
98. within each model life table pattern both sexes combined 61 Data required for QFIVE Title A data description of up to 72 characters to be included in the heading at the top of the page of output Month Indicates the month of the enumeration Year The year of the enumeration Sex Indicates whether the life table refers to the male sex female sex or both sexes combined Sex ratio at birth Indicates the ratio of males births to females births The original version of QFIVE used a fixed value of 1 05 Mean age of childbearing Mean age of mother at childbearing in the population This variable can be calculated from births tabulated by age of mother at time of birth as M 17 5 B 15 20 22 5 B 20 25 47 5 B 45 50 B 15 20 B 20 25 B 45 50 where B x y is the number of births to women in age group x to y at the time of birth An approximate estimate of M can be calculated from children ever born data through FERTCB or from the age schedule of fertility through FERTPF Data Definition Indicates the type of input data being supplied by age of mother for age groups from 15 20 20 25 up to 45 50 The five input choices are indicated below The number of children ever born to a woman The number of children surviving per woman The number of women The number of children ever born to a woman The number of children dead per woman The number of women The number of children surviving per woman The number
99. worksheets often have a display format set for selected columns Internally these numbers retain all their significant digits To see the unformatted number put the worksheet cell into edit mode by pressing F2 or double clicking on the cell or copy the data to a location having a different display format Version 4 3 MORTPAK can now perform batch runs from one or more input data files The data files must be version 4 0 or later because earlier versions do not contain the application name within the data file The batch runs can be initiated from Run on the main menu The output data files can be produced in one of two styles one output file created from each input file or the output data can be merged into one file The output data uses comma separated value format i e csv so that they can be ready for import into spreadsheets and databases The first line is a column header used to define the data fields Many of the input data parameters are repeated in each line of the output similar to many databases This is useful if sorting and filtering data within the spreadsheet The following applications support batch runs at this time BESTFT CEBCS FERTCB FERTPF ICM LIFTB MATCH QFIVE and UNABR The other applications cannot produce batch runs For many applications a summary table containing probabilities of dying are now printed in the output worksheet The selected indicators 1q0 4q1 5q0 20q15 35q15 45q15 40q30 and 20q60
100. y rate for the last projection period given above Male Migration Pattern The male migrants by age This pattern will be used for each year Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available The number of age groups must be consistent with the indicated open age group Female Migration Pattern The female migrants by age The pattern will be used for each year Data are given for age groups 0 5 5 10 up through the last open age group available The number of age groups must be consistent with the indicated open age group Label for user defined model This variable is used only if the model life table pattern above is coded as zero It is a name for the model supplied by the user and is included in the table heading User defined model q x n male values This variable is used only if the model life table pattern above is coded as zero It consists of model male qx values supplied by the user The values must be given for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 As a minimum qx values must be given through age group 60 65 as a maximum through age group 80 85 As these data are read in on a per person basis each value must be in the interval 0 to 1 User defined model q x n female values This variable is used only if the model life table pattern above is coded as zero It consists of model female qx values supplied by the user The values must be given for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10
101. ying nqx values or number of survivors at age x lx values Description of technique Based on a given set of mx Or nqx Values for age groups 0 1 1 5 5 10 up to the last closed age group available maximum of 95 100 is allowed value for the final open age group is not given an abridged life table is constructed Starting with MORTPAK 4 l values for ages 0 1 5 up to a maximum age of 100 may now be entered The usual life table columns are calculated labeled on the computer output and defined as follows Age m x n q x n I x d x n L x n S x n T x e x a x n the initial age of the age interval x x n where x is the initial age and n is the length of the interval The interval length is five years with the exception of infancy one year early childhood years four year age group and last interval open ended central death rate for the age interval x x n Usual notation is nmx probability of an individual age x dying before the end of the age interval x x n Usual notation is qx number of survivors at age x in a life table with radix starting population of 100 000 persons Usual notation is lx number of deaths in age interval x x n Usual notation is ndx number of person years lived in age interval x x n Usual notation is L UAS the proportion of the life table population in age group x x n who are alive n year later Usual notation i
102. ying between birth and exact ages of early childhood Population Studies vol 26 No 1 March pp 79 97 United Nations 1982 Model Life Tables for Developing Countries United Nations publication Sales No E 81 XIII 7 United Nations 1982a Stable Populations Corresponding to the New United Nations Model Life Tables for Developing Countries ST ESA SER R 44 United Nations 1983 Manual X Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation United Nations publication Sales No E 83 XHI 2 United Nations 1988a MORTPAK The United Nations Software Package for Mortality Measurement Batch oriented Software for the Mainframe Computer ST ESA SER R 78 United Nations 1988b MORTPAK LITE The United Nations Software Package for Mortality Measurement Interactive Software for the IBM PC and Compatibles Sales No E 88 XIII 2 73 United Nations 1990 MORTPAK and MORTPAK LITE Upgrades Version 3 0 of the United Nations Software Package for Mortality Measurement Sales No E 90 XIII 7 United Nations 1989 The United Nations Population Projection Computer Program A User s Manual ST ESA SER R 92 Zlotnik H 1981 Computer Programs for Demographic Estimation A User s Guide Washington D C National Academy Press 74
103. ying the data to QFIVE Children ever born The average number of children ever born to a woman If Tabulations above is coded as age of mother the data are given by age groups 15 20 20 25 45 50 if Tabulations above is coded as duration of marriage the data are given by duration of marriage 0 5 years 5 10 years 30 35 years Children surviving The average number of children surviving per woman either by her age group or by duration of her marriage Sample Input Data An example data set is given in CEBCS MPL In this example mortality data are given for a hypothetical population In this data set the children ever born and children surviving are given by age group of mother 28 D Description of CENCT Purpose of procedure Estimation of completeness of one census relative to a second census from population age distributions from two censuses and either assumption of a United Nations or Coale Demeny model life table or provision of registered deaths or death rates by age for the intercensal period Description of technique Hill 1987 has shown that in any population closed to migration the following equation holds for an intercensal period 1 N a 1 1 x D a os ela lin N a t K c N a where N a and N a t are the number of person years lived at exact age a and at ages a and over respectively during an intercensal period r a is the cumulativ

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