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LEAP version 2.61 for Ethiopia

1. 2 Description bee Images Database 300 90 ME of space required on the C drive 248633 96 MB of space available on the C drive InstallShield lt Back Cancel After pressing Next two times LEAP is being installed on your system It will take a while as the number of images copied exceeds 10 000 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 12 2 3 Starting LEAP During the installation an icon has been put on the desktop LEAP 1s started by double clicking this icon A so called splash screen will be displayed for a few seconds and subsequently the LEAP main window will appear LEAP ersion 2 20 Tuesday April 13 2010 Application in C Wip ioj x Project Data Calculate Yiew Export Options Tools Products Help Project Meher Crop basket click here to change aN World Food Maize_Meher a E Programme World Food Programme of the United Nations The World Bank Dataset priority click here to change k ine Actual a data e Federal 2 RFE2 AEE a Ethiopia Actual ETO data 1 FAO Normal Rainfall data 1 RFE_ARC Normal ETO data 1 FAO The water balance Eso ler of the esent software is fecal on the FAO Vez CMBox AMS ae The main menu gives access to all LEAP functions just as other Windows programs do 2 4 Indexes produced by LEAP In version 1 0 of LEAP four types of indexes can be calculated and displayed The Water Requi
2. Press it and you ll see Create Cumulative Rainfall Products Select the period and the dataset as you would like to see it Press Ok You will see LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 100 This is the cumulative image for the selected period In the top right you can choose three different images Cumulative Image ki Cumulate Image Cumulative Normal Image Deviation from Cumulate Normal If you are tired of looking at cumulative images press the button LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 101 13 3 Changing the legend You will probably be dissatisfied with the ranges and colors of the legend Change those by right clicking on the legend and press edit legend Actual Rainfall in mm 0 0 to 5 0 i 28 0 to 50 0 s00 to 100 0 E KET Copy legend to ClipBoard 200 0 Edit Legend MB 250 0 Load Legend a EE Missing Change the legend to your liking Edit Colors c delphi LEAP pre O x Missing LLL If you want to preserve the legend for later use please press Save Legend As in the legend editor You can reload the color file with the Load Legend option in the right mouse menu LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 102 0 0t0 10 0 10 0 to 20 0 E 20 0 to 30 0 B 30 0 to 50 0 B 50 0 to 1000 ao W200 Copy legend to ClipBoard 300 Edit Legend Missi ids Load Legend LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Pag
3. 424 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production daily output I RFE 425 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production total production I 426 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production sold I 427 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production price per 428 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production cash income birr 24 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production cash income 2kcals 9 3 The LIU parameter legend The legend is visible on the right side of the window length of cycle mo 3 months BE 3 5 months 4 months E This legend can be copied to the clipboard with the right mouse button when over the legend Wy Copy legend to Clipboard Feit enend The colors in the legend can be changed with the two little color boxes in the corners of the legend 3 months 3 5 months 4 months G gt Using the drop down box a colour can be selected The map reacts to the color change LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 82 First color leads to custom mj color box Color 2 x Basic colors E Emr ime E E A mE i Eee Eee Ee E ite EE ee Define Custom Colors gt gt Cancel As an example if the top colour box is changed to the colour white and the bootom box is changed to black th
4. Albers Equal Area Conic dx meters pixel dy meters pixel Spheroid Clarke 1866 Eq radius 6 378 206 4m Polar radius 6 356 583 8m Goodes Homolosine dx meters pixel dy meters pixel Spheroid Sphere of radius 6 370 997 meters parallell parallel2 The standard parallels are used by the Lambert Conformal Conic projection and Albers Equal Area Conic lower LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 94 The lower limit for valid image data to be used in processing range 0 255 Only available for image type 200 upper The upper limit for valid image data to be used in processing range 0 255 Only available for image type 200 missing Value to assign to all values falling outside the lower upper limits range 0 255 Only available for image type 200 m Slope for converting pixel counts to real world values y mx b Only available for image type 200 b Intercept for converting pixel counts to real world values y mx b Only available for image type 200 decimal The number of decimal places to use in Process Stats Only available for image type 200 12 2 The database used by LEAP LEAP uses a Microsoft Access database to store crop characteristics This database is located in the database directory The main tables used by LEAP are tblCrop and tbIKCR The other tables ensure compatibility with AgrometShell 12 3 The legend color files Color tables are used to map image values or dig
5. Image Base directory c program files LEAP Images Dataset to create The dataset name that will be created to RFE ARC normals in write the images to Rainfall or ETO Rainfall First year to use for the calculation of normals Last year to use for the calculation of normals Function 2 Creating normals for all parameters and write the results to the same dataset This function is accessed through Data Calculate Normals For Viewer visualisations This function creates the normal data used in the viewer see paragraph 8 2 3 Image Base l l Image Base directory c program files LEAP Images First year to use for the calculation of normals Last year to use for the calculation of normals As to be expected the Water Balance calculations and everything that follows the WRSI calculations such as yield reduction and beneficiary numbers will have to be recalculated to incorporate the new data 3 1 9 Viewing the rainfall data Use the LEAP viewer to look at the rainfall In the main menu the viewer can be accessed through the View option LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 35 Parameter selection Actual Rainfall Sau e Normal Rainfall Select the ye abe rainfall to display here dataset hare Potential Evapotranspiration O Actual Evapotranspiration O Normal Evapotranspiration Crop and Soil O Planting Dekad O Cycle Length O Water Holding Capacity O Pre Planting Crop Coefficient
6. ps vw eee miin Gop Matk lt no Select Parameter to View Select Parametar to View r 3 Pie w W Pinal index WRSI in traction 2008 Tett _Detg 00305 KO Wap eneges Venter Balance FIJNTZOIOTeri _Betg_Finat_Index_2000 mal E2510 50 2550 Image Values Value 55 Piet 75 Lire 96 Longuda 40 15 Latitude 5 68 HEDA WELABU Navigator lt s gt an gt Noma Index EN Total Water Requeenert Display in Google Earth Agpegae to Excel Whenever images related to water balance calculations are displayed in the viewer the right mouse button gives access to a number of functions that give extra information about the pixel over which the mouse is located The right mouse menu has four functions Mh F i re k A m View Trend View Water Balance Details For this pixel view Rainfall Report on input data availability 8 2 4 1 View trend dekadal parameters This function works primarily for Rainfall and other dekadal parameters Select a pixel on the map press right mouse button press View trend and graph will pop up displaying 36 values for a calendar year The blue bars are actual rainfall the red line is the normal rainfall calculated from the archive LIT ox Rain dataset RFE2 for area AMHARA NORTH GONDER CHILGA January dekad 1 2010 To December dekad 3 2010 mm J1 J2 J3 F1 F2 F3M1 M2 M3 81 A2AS M1 M2 M3 J1 J2 J3 J1 J2 J3 41 A24351 52 53 01 02 O3N1 N2N3 D1 D2 DS Dekads in
7. contains the NMA data 6 parameters Name of the sheet within the Excel spreadsheet that holds the data 1 Ist Sheet name in ETO file The year of the data 2007 The name of the station file The station file file contains the coordinates for the Files L EAP NMA stations xls Stations in the sheet Name of input station c program c program Reference image The name of the reference image files LEAP Images ref img After pressing OK the following steps are taken by LEAP 1 Calculate Daily ETO For this calculation a separate component is being used developed by Marcello Donatelli http www sipeaa it ASP ASP2 ET asp ETCS is a cross platform component containing routines to estimate daily values of evapotranspiration from the reference surface The calculated daily ETO data are written into a spreadsheet In this case the name of the sheet 1s Daily ETO June 2007 xIs EJ Microsoft Excel Sheet6 lol x a File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Type a question for help v X Dame Beai4adaliVGls an FI 1 z 2l il 10 OB Bl o EB Bama o a 4 v Reply with Changes End Review Ag z f amp AMBAMARIAM i G H a Date 1 4 5 6 ABOMSA ETO 3 60986 4 62321 4472565 4 226552 5 4133 5 1142 sf ADIGRAT ETO 3 816891 3 552923 3 947382 3 824775 4 333526 4 332894 3 ADWA ETO 3 250424 9 250998 3 251532 3 262025 3 262479 9 252895 3 AIRA ETO 3 03335 3 80129
8. FEWS NDVI 1 EROS NDVI 6 ARTEMIS CUTOFF 10 ARTEMIS RECODE 11 ARTEMIS NDVI 12 ARTEMIS FEWS 13 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 92 ARTEMIS NEWNASA 14 GENERIC DIFF 100 FEWS NDVI DIFF 101 EROS NDVI DIFF 106 ARTEMIS CUTOFF DIFF 110 ARTEMIS RECODE DIFF 111 ARTEMIS NDVI DIFF 112 ARTEMIS FEWS DIFF 113 ARTEMIS NEWNASA DIFF 114 CALCULATED 200 This is always a linear relationship that can be expressed by value slope byte value intercept by analogy with the basis formula y mx b For normal image processing GENERIC is suggested Note that for ARTEMIS image types the value of 255 1s reserved for water masks projection The projection information is used when overlaying maps on images reprojecting images and getting lat long image coordinates with the cursor The following projections are implemented NONE 0 HAMMER_AITOFF 2 PLATTE_CARRE 3 Geographic lat long LAMBERTCC 4 Lambert Conformal Conic METEOSAT 5 LAMBERTAZ 6 Lambert Azimuthal ALBERS EQUAL AREA CONIC 8 GOODES HOMOLOSINE 9 The values lat_center long_center x_center y_center dx dy parallell and parallel2 determine for a given image type the pixel size the exact location on earth and the shape of the image To be more precise height width These values define the number of pixels across and down the image An image will not display properly without these parameters Maximum value for
9. H H H H H H H j j e H H H ee aaa aaa aaa aaa aa a aaaea aaa aaa aiii i H H P t e H e H H H H H J e H i H f e H H e H H H Ce Ce OUON OAE AEREAA EEA E ESEE E E EERESEE H f h e i f e H i H H H e H f H H i H H i i H j Js H faar f j 5 i s e H H e i Number of Beneficiaries 400000 i i H i H sood T 0 aaa aaa aa H H H H H H 200000 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 RWRSI NOTE The sample curves are computed by setting the following values of the log model parameters No 300000 Nr 1000000 Wo 52 Wy 100 The value of the systemic failure level F is indicated by the line style as indicated in the legend For very low values of the parameter F the relation between RWRSI and the Number of Beneficiaries is approximately linear The log model relation between RWRSI and the number of beneficiaries has a weak slope when RWRSI is close to 100 Figure 3 This means that with a weak water stress the number of beneficiaries in needs of assistance remains close to zero LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 57 As RWRSI decreases the slope of the curve increases and for RWRSI close to the regional failure level F even a small decrease in RWRSI little additional water stress a large increase in livelihood protection needs can be produced The model aims at describing the failure of community based coping mechanism when t
10. amp Geographic Web gt L G Featured Content gt O Global Awareness gt L roads gt L 30 Buildings gt L borders l gt E Populated Places Ae gt L alternative Place Hames s gt L Dining N 1 p gt L 5 Lodging AV L Ne E oO D y TA 2007 Europa Technologies G ais A pL Google Earth Community W x ie Image 2007 TetraMetrics 14 m 13 lt 0 Google O Shopping and Services s gt L amp Transportation O 7a Geographic Features A EEEE N TTO A AEA Streaming Eye alt 84 03 mi gt L amp Travel and Tourism ico I V4 Dining gt LI E Parks and Recreation Areas gt L E community Services T Roads I E Borders gt L E us Government gt L DigitalGlobe Coverage M amp Terrain J Gy Buildings In this example the values displayed represent mm of rainfall for the dekad of the image above first dekad of September 2001 for dataset RFE2 8 2 10 Exporting images to ArcGIS and ArcView Press this button Export to GIS to export the image to a format that is recognized by ArcGIS and ArcView Specify the name of the output file Export image to GIS cuputle eT B wf OK i Cancel LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 77 LEAP will now export the file in geoTiff format This format is readily importable into ArcGIS ArcView 8 2 11 Copying images to Word With the buttons below images displayed in LEAP mi The left button copies
11. 10 days from the EROS Data Center The greenness data is used in translating the point based PHYGROW output into maps of forage standing crop and forage deviation from normal using geostatical and GIS methods The Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA model is used to forecast 30 60 and 90 days forage availability using the point forage data Kaitho et al 2005 This approach uses past forage and NDVI conditions along with current forage estimates from the PHYGROW model to predict future grazed standing crop Spatial Technology Mapping of forage supply and deviation from normal forage conditions is conducted using co kriging between the NDVI data and the point based PHYGROW analyses Geostatistics lets us couple biophysical model data collected for a small set of samples in a large landscape with a more spatially rich dataset NDVI to interpolate forage responses across a region For co kriging to work effectively a linear relationship must exist between the model forage values and corresponding NDVI data Since the correspondence between model output and NDVI in co kriging 1s spatially dependent areas where a lack of correspondence exists can be identified allowing LEWS teams to determine where new sampling points need to be located Currently the co kriging is conducted using a commercial software GS The PHYGROW model outputs have been verified by the LEWS team to ensure accurate tracking of the forage conditions on the groun
12. Chefa Gula v Amhara Oromiya Dewa Harewa v Amhara Oromiya Jille Timuga Amhara South Gonder Dera v fe Save Selection Exit Somali Warder Boh 6 4 Define Needs Analysis Setup The second step is to select the of assessment weights for Belg Meher and Pastoral WRSI to use in the computation of the Regional WRSI See section 1 for a detailed definition of the Regional WRSI To start the area selection the user will e Enter the panel by clicking Needs gt Step 2 Log model setup e Choose an existing npf file containing information on the selected areas The setup panel figure 3 allows the user to select two important sets of parameters 1 The assessment weigths that will determine how the different WRSI and rangeland indices are combined at the woreda level to form a single representative drought index 2 The log model parameters including the population at risk and range of variability of the drought index 6 4 1 Assessment Weights Let us first describe the conceptual difference between production share and assessment weight The production share is a characteristic of the livelihood economy of each woreda and represents the average fraction of annual production achieved during a normal rainy season where the seasonal rainfall pattern is bi modal LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 59 The seasonal weights coefficients q to be selected in the Needs Module are the relative weights associ
13. ETO Livelihood Mositure Index Rain Level Datasets For rain ARC JoSheet HMA Level 3 The years within a dataset Another basic characteristic of LEAP are the multiple datasets This makes it possible to select different input sources for index calculations The user then sets a certain dataset priority Based on this priority calculations are performed The current dataset priority is displayed on the main screen LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 15 aa The World Bank Dataset priority click here to change Crop data 1 Belg Actual Rainfall data 1 RFE The Federal overnment of Ethiopia 2 RFE2 Actual ETO data 1 FAO Normal Rainfall data 1 RFE_ARC Normal ETO data 1 FAO The water balance component of the present software is based on the FA0 EU CMBox amp MS ee The dataset priority can be changed in the dataset priority window that is accessed with the Options Dataset priority function Define Water Balance Input Datasets _ O x Crop Data Primary Dataset If Primary dataset not available then use If Secondary dataset not available then use Do not use secondary dataset gt k Do not use tertiary datasets k Raintall Data Primary Actuals Dataset IF Primar dataset not available then use If Secondary dataset not available then use Actuals NMA SEDI RFE2 RFE x Primary Mormal Dataset IF P
14. crop varieties LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 7 1 4 The incorporated LIU database Since version 2 30 LEAP incorporates the LIU national livelihoods database as an extra layer of information valuable for Food Security The LIU unit and USAID have graciously agreed to have the database integrated into LEAP The main goal of the LIU Livelihood Integration Unit was to improve the accuracy and objectiveness of the seasonal and annual needs assessments in Ethiopia while building capacity with an objective of handing over its core functions to the Ethiopian government The sponsor USAID is committed to work together with the Ethiopian government to incorporate access into a livelihood framework and support the government to develop nationwide livelihood baselines against which the impact of shocks will be measured The LIU project runs in parallel to the LEAP project The projects are perfectly aligned in the sense that the objectives are alike improve the accuracy and objectiveness of the seasonal and annual needs assessments in Ethiopia while building capacity but take the subjects from different angels While LIU invests in knowledge on micro level household livelihood strategies LEAP uses macro level more physical information soils crops rainfall etc to serve the same goal The methodology used by the LIU is the Household Economy Approach a systems based approach to food security analysis that looks at all the compon
15. type header_type record reserved array 1 22 of byte image_type byte projection byte reserved array 25 30 of byte height integer width integer LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 91 reserved3 array 35 38 of byte title array 1 80 of char reserved4 array 119 120 of byte lat_center real long_center real X_center real y_center real dx real dy real parallell real parallel2 real lower byte upper byte missing byte m real b real decimals byte reserved5 array 185 512 of byte end The images values themselves are stored as bytes in the rest of the image file The first byte of this block offset 513 is the top left most pixel of the image followed by the rest of the first line Line for line is then specified The last byte represents the pixel value for the bottom right most pixel in the image Listed below are descriptions of each of the parameters followed by values for specific image types reserved All reserved slots are to maintain comaptibility with the TERRAMAR MICROIMAGE file format Programmers can use these zones to store information when no compatibility with TERRAMAR is required image_type The image type is used when converting pixel counts into true values for NDVI The image type also tells which pixel counts are for cloud masks overlays garbage etc The following image types are defined GENERIC 0
16. 0 38 Fhase ETAt Surplus Deficit oo Summary for the 4 main Vegetative 47 E 22 i Flowering ae x 148 phases in crop growth Bipening lz 0 40 Surplus Omm WER Deficit 241mm WOEFt ETit 147mm data avail 100 CSA ATL I Totals L Norm index YY 1 IND T Explanation ETA actual evapotranspiration The normal index last line is the water satisfaction index which would be obtained under average conditions of rainfall and ETP but all other input parameters remaining equal planting date effective rain The normal index tends to overestimate the average condition for at least two reasons the normal rain 1s less than the median rain and normal dekad rainfall is unusually well and regularly distributed The other variables columns have the following meaning DEK the calendar dekad starting in January NOR the normal rainfall for the dekad mm ACT the actual rainfall for that dekad and season mm WRK is the working rain actual Dekad rain EffRain 100 Y Y Further the PET actual or normal depending on which is available KCR the crop coefficient as calculated by the programme WR the water requirements in mm the product of PET and KCR AvW the water available to the crop WRK WR mm SW the soil moisture at the end of the dekad mm S D the water surplus or deficit positive surplus negative deficit Their respective totals are given at the bottom of the table INDEX the water satisf
17. ETO 51 6 BEDELLE ETO 35 6 Dekadal ETO from June 7007 xls 3 Convert Dekadal ETO to images LEAP gives the following status messages Number of stations found in C program files LEAP NMA June 2007 xls 99 Stations not found in sheet C program files LEAP NMA stations xls GONDER ADWA AIRA ALGE AMBAMARIAM ARSI NEGELLE ARSI ROBE ASELLA ASGORE Daily ETO values saved in sheet C program files LEAP NMA Daily ETO June 2007 x1s Dekadal ETO values saved in sheet C program files LEAP NMA Dekadal ETO June 2007 x1s Created image C program files LEAP Images ETO NMA 2007 ETO 2007 6 1 img based on 37 stations Created image C program files LEAP Images ETO NMA 2007 ETO 2007 6 2 img based on 36 stations Created image C program files LEAP Images ETO NMA 2007 ETO 2007 6 3 img based on 38 stations In this example a number of stations do not have coordinates defined in the station sheet or have missing values in the input sheet That is the reason why the number of stations for interpolation 37 is lower than the number of station found in the NMA sheet 99 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 39 3 2 2 Viewing the ETO data in the viewer The ETO data can be viewed through the View menu First select the parameter 20 x Rainfall NMA SEDI Actual Rainfall O Normal Rainfall Potential Evapotranspiration Actual Evapotranspiration Normal Evapotranspiration Crop and Soil Planting Dekad O Cycle
18. Parameters to EXxcel cccccccsssssseeceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenaas 87 11 3 Export Crop Basket WRS tO ExCilunreiennn a A 88 11 4 Export Yield Reduction to EXC is sisctinatemiuiieiaitmiaastinatamieueweaineutin 89 12 Peehnical detains OF CEAP xs sen sonesiesousintdilnadincecssustesivandeseduausetetamdiatecsattediendevelubaeseiueamdiete 91 12 1 The imace Tosmarise by LEAP ics seit eee eietab eleva eden elo 91 122 Toe database Used Dy LEA Pannaan taahcods rigeuaah ant ere eecacetes 95 12 3 Toeles cnd Color Me ieee mene ene mean tte Mente tr en Me AE 95 I gt Recent chances 10 LEAP icc center tata A nan tices wean 97 13 1 A new version of LEAP can now be loaded from within LEAP itself 97 13 2 Workine with cumulatw erat alllssscetrses be ecteias ites naueiene tetheaieieaaretiahes 99 13 3 Cham sine ne Ve SCs rirni a a a a a 102 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 4 Acknowledgements The following staff members of international organizations have been instrumental in the development of LEAP The development of LEAP would not have been possible without them Project manager Assistant Project Managers Project leader Technical support and advice Head of Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping VAM Section Ethiopia Support Well January 10 2012 Peter Hoefsloot consultant to WFP Mattewos Hunde Head of Department Government of Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector DRMEF
19. Run from AgrometShell gt Import NMA Rainfall Create rainfall estimates using SEDI Ftom ETO spreadsheet Data Source Comparison Graph First the password has to be provided x Enter password to wark with Wha data PO oK Cancel Then the settings window follows Import NMA Rainfall data Oj x Name of input NMA Rainfal spreadsheet c WfpNMAINMA Station rainfall data 95 06 LPCI xls Reference image c vfpiimagesiret img Just first month C ff OK x Cancel Name of input station file cWpINMAlstations xls B The first option is the name of the sheet The second option is the name of the station spreadsheet file This spreadsheet contains for every station the longitude and latitude See the example below If a station in the rainfall file does not have a counterpart with the same name in the station file case insensitive the data cannot be imported If a station is missing in the station file the station can simply be added at the end from row 240 onwards LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 29 EJ Microsoft Excel stations xls Ioj x ey File Edit wiew Insert Format Tools Data Window Help x 1 ld So lAl GQ Snel afdrukken _ B u G u a o g amp gt 4 S pi a A amp Mame E E IT Hame tLongitude Latitude Altitude Abomsa 39 82 8 47 1800 a Abomsa 39 52 8 47 1800 Adaba 39 40 7 02 2420 Adaba 39 40 7 02 2420 6 ddis Ababa Bole 35 77 9 03 2
20. States Climate Prediction Center Africa rainfall algorithm Along with a dramatically reduced processing time the new algorithm gives increased accuracy and enhanced code portability The output domain is 20W 55E 40S 40N with a 0 1 degree resolution and each day s time scale is 6Z 6Z Output files are in binary format containing a 751x801 array of floating point rainfall estimates Ten day estimates are created by summing daily output data The RFE2 rainfall archive is available from December 1999 until now New images are produced dekad by dekad and can be downloaded freely form the internet With every new release of LEAP the newest dekads will be integrated Two functions are available for the incorporation of new rainfall estimates one through HTPP the other one through FTP 3 1 2 1 Getting new data through internet HTTP one step Users will want to update their rainfall archive themselves New data can be downloaded from the web with this function LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 23 LEAP ersion 1 10 Monday December 31 7007 Data Calculate View Export Options Tools Help Crops d Rangeland d Rainfall Import RFE1 Rainfall d ETO d Import RFE Rainfall Calculate Normals t Import ART Rainfall F Get new data nternet FTP Import Monitoring Run From AgrometShell Import TAMSAT Rainfall t Eile EE port NMA Rainfall F Directory Create rainfall estimates using SEDI Data Source Comparison Graph This function wi
21. a Uae nr eee eter nee a 69 8 2 3 Comparing the image values to normal c cc ccesseeeseeeeceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaas 70 Oa CSTE pixe ldetallS 352 ssn csiasieds a a 71 S25 Masking out areas 1m 1he Viewer wisest ae icon eerie bao 74 8 2 0 Changing the DOUNGATICS aictrsstidstestide tine atWeleeid olead adenine eaaiealS 74 S 2 7 Zooming ANG PANNING s crsseccaresavientrsnsiaesavandenedapperedasandenteseptaesghandeneduvearedssendinds 75 S20 Aporo O ECE a a leameioan 75 S29 i Display values 1 Goos ke Fart en E ae 76 8 2 10 Exporting images to ArcGIS and ArcView eesessssoeeerssssssssseeressssssseerersssss TI S211 Copying imases to Wordreresccosrtenier aee teenie Shea ian 78 9 Using data rom he LIV data ase ernea E EEEE 79 9 Dispaymns LiU data i LEAP senn aiinaencts ash dataset ea neaees 79 92 Looking Tora parametei eenean a a a 81 9 9 the TOR parameter 16SCN Ci ipctst se scssvavaves oie aieadsin wastes a 82 94 SOME ENa TUNCIONS ean a a e ra a mas E eied 84 10 Additional Data available in LEAP 1 0 0 0 ccccssssssseeeccccceneeesseeseccccesseeeesseeeeseeeenags 85 10 1 Livestock Early Warning System Forage Maps cccccssscccecceeeeseeeeeeeeeeeenaes 85 10 2 NDV Dena lates Sach ote Shah a a A E 86 11 Exporting LEAP data to other software ccccccccccssssssseecceeeeeeeeesseeeeeeceeeeeaeeesseeeeeeeaaas 87 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 11 1 Export Rainfall 10 EX Ehana a 87 11 2 Export Water Balance
22. and the corresponding output Note that different combinations of the log model parameters may result in a similar output By inspection of the single rows of the output table the user can identify the number of beneficiaries corresponding to a given scenario for example the scenario corresponding to a given value of Nr population at risk By exporting the output table to Excel it is possible to perform additional statistical analysis For axample the uncertainty in the log model parameters corresponds to a probability distribution of potential beneficiaries estimated by LEAP which can be used to determine different levels of interventions see example in Figure LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 63 Figure 6 The LEAP needs output table f Results C Program Files x86 LEAP Database Afar npf zo o RoROW Year Year Nr Nr No NO wm Wm wo WOF F pdiopuiaiion pftected a 499799 2010 700000 33333 85 35 25 33333 500500 2010 700000 33333 85 35 29 33333 501501 2010 700000 33333 90 30 25 54137 50502 2010 700000 33333 90 30 29 47202 503803 2010 700000 33333 90 35 25 61841 504504 2010 700000 33333 90 35 29 57918 595505 2010 700000 66666 80 30 25 43684 506506 2010 700000 66666 80 30 29 51601 507507 2010 700000 66666 80 35 25 34340 508508 2010 700000 66666 80 35 29 38988 599509 2010 700000 66666 85 30 25 66666 519510 2010 700000 66666 85 30 29 66666 51511 2010 700000 66666 85 35 25 66666 51512 2010 700000 66666 85 35 29 66666 51513 201
23. based on 83 stations LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 30 Created image c program files LEAP Images Rain NMA 1995 Rain 1995 1 2 img based on 82 stations Created image c program files LEAP Images Rain NMA 1995 Rain 1995 1 3 img based on 83 stations In this case a number of stations found in the rainfall file is not found in the station file As stated earlier the station file can be edited to include these missing stations In this case the dataset images are written to NMA INVD 3 1 5 2 Type 2 Daily Rainfall data from ETO sheets A second type of spreadsheet from NMA can be imported as well It contains the five parameters that allow for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration In addition the row RRR displays rainfall The structure of the file is as follows EJ Microsoft Excel June 2006 ETo xls l Pie x Fie Edit Yiew Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Type a question for help X D EHLAGALAVYAI A BA Q 4 Snel afdrukken p e civ Oe EB Bahamas A Q Reply with Changes End Revie z Al v fe Station 15 5 16 1 64 1 93 3 2 33 4 15 0 34 0 93 This type of file is imported through two functions 1 The rainfall data are imported with the function Data Rainfall Import NMA Rainfall From ETO spreadsheet 2 The ETO parameters are imported through the function Data ETO Import actual NMA ETO In fact this function does two things import the five parameters a
24. baskets are applied in the calculation of Basket Water Balance and Yield Reduction The current crop basket is displayed in the main window Creu basket click here to cnange Finger Millet MeherLonglycle Finger Mille MeherShortCycle World Food of the Un Maize M eherLonglycle Maize MeherShortlycle Potatos_ Meher Sorghum MeherLonglycle Sorghum MeherS horlycle Tett_ Meher The Dataset priority click here to change Crop data a 1 Zonal The crop basket can be set through the Options Basket Crops in Basket function In certain functions crops outside the basket will be ignored The user can now select another basket Select crops in basket x Source List Destination List Barley Meher Barley Belg Chick Peas Meher Chick Peas Belg Field Pea Meher u Field Pea_Belg Finger Millet Meher onal gt Finger Millet_Belg Finger Millet Mehershortl Haricot Bean Belg Haricot Bean Meher Horse Bean Belg Horse Bean Meher Lentils Belg Lentils _ Meher Maize Belg Maize MeherLonglycle Maize _MeherShortlycle OF Cancel The two top buttons are used to select one or more crops the bottom two buttons de select crops 2 8 Getting new data LEAP contains a few functions to download new data from the LEAP internet server Obviously these functions only work when an internet connection is present From version 1 10 LEAP contains two functions for specific data RFE2 a
25. either parameter is 32767 title The header reserves 80 characters for a description of the contents of the image This is an optional feature lat_center long_center These values identify the center of the projection in decimal degrees x_center y_center LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 93 These values define the center of the image relative to the reference projection image For the reference image these values are 1 2 the height and width For sub images the sub image offsets are subtracted from the reference x_center y_center dx dy These values are used by the projection routines when converting from longitude latitude to line pixel and vice versa The values of dx and dy for the projections and image types supported in WinDisp 4 0 are as follows Geographic Platte Carre Lat Long dx degrees longitude pixel dy degrees latitude pixel Hammer Aitoff for NASA NDVI images dx 1 blowup width 56 2 dy 1 aspect ratio blowup height 48 2 These are dx 0 0004233844 and dy 0 0008467687 for Africa Meteosat dx 18 width dy 18 height Spheroid Eq radius 6 378 155m Polar radius 6 356 751 8m Lambert Conformal Conic dx nominal kilometres pixel dy nominal kilometres pixel Spheroid Clarke 1866 Eq radius 6 378 206 4m Polar radius 6 356 583 8m Lambert Azimuthal dx meters pixel dy meters pixel Spheroid Sphere of radius 6 370 997 meters
26. existent can be masked out With the drop down box at the top of the viewer Mask Belg gt The resulting image in which the masked areas are white can be seen below Lanmen eee alaiz Mob Borden ateti Seleet Parameter to View Beg woreda i hore H Fev O Zomto ka anoll s Actual Ratedall im mm 2010 March 2 Aches Faisal in men 200 Oto 0 reage Vakre Vas 6 Poelt 5 Ure 4 ea Lenghade 44 21 Ladurie BSE Soms Degehatea Harak Bai 8 2 6 Changing the boundaries The boundaries viewed superimposed on the images are determined by the Boundaries settings at the top of the screen LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 74 Boundaries _ Zones Default this is set to the Zones Suppose the user sets this to the Zones then the image in the viewer is like below Please note the boundary setting also determines the aggregation areas for the Aggregate to Excel button see below A Crop Mask lt none gt Select Parameter to View hk ze 6O amp B Boundaries zone bna Actual Rainfall in mm 2004 September 4 0 1010 lc OYipnages Rai RFE2Q001 Rain_2001_9_1 img 21040 20 aaeawwses e B30 0 50 Image Vales Vake 0 Piret 146 Lre 118 Longitude 47 23 Latitude 3 30 Navigation Kaupa gt September __ gt a lt 2000 Display inGoogeEath Aggregate to Excel 8 2 7 Zooming and Panning A number of buttons determine the zooming and panning in LEAP H
27. here http www hoefsloot com downloads lews03 02 pdf The graph below displays the interdependence of the indexes and input parameters In west Yield Reduction velthood ee parameters Rainfall Data EE Moisture Index Actual Evapotranspiration a data 2 5 Pre loaded datasets A basic characteristic of LEAP is that after installing a large number of images gt 10 000 in total belonging to different datasets are found onto the hard disk These images contain input datasets as well as pre calculated output The images are stored in the images directory in the root of the LEAP installation This ensures that users can directly view images even without calculating or importing anything The images are organized according to dataset and year on the hard disk Below a screen dump of a typical hard disk organisation LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 14 El Crop 9 Zonal El Eto Sine ess H Fao Josheet 3 NMA E Livelihood C Runt E Moisture Index Runi E Rain O ARC B Joshet room E NMA G 1995 cL 1996 CD 1997 i 1998 em j 1999 C 2000 C 2001 Co 2002 CL 2003 O 2004 Cy 2005 20006 9 Normal Mma ind O NMA SEDI pun TI m _ RFE Go ee amp amp JOD _ TAMAT 9 Water Balance Tam Funi _ Runt 3 Rune Tja 9 vield 2 6 Dataset priority A Root directory for Level 0 images Level 1 Dataset types such as Crop
28. production camels milk production no milking animals RAFE2 423 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production duration days Pee 424 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production daily output I ras 425 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production total production I 426 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production sald I 427 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production price per fotential Evapotranspiration FAO SEDI In case the user is only interested in parameters that deal with camel milk it does not help to put camel milk in the filter box As and example the word camels milk would not be caught In stead one can use a wildcard the percentage sign The follwing parameter filter LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 8 Parameter Filter camelmilk Apply leads to 20 parameters with first the word Camel and in the rest of the text the word Milk see below The Livelihoods Integration Unit Database Parameter Filter camelmilk Apply Parameters 20 with text camelemilk Wealth Group 421 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production no milking animals ca Average of All k l camels milk production no milking animals 423 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock production camels milk production duration days
29. the image to the clipboard The right button creates two JPF files one for the image itself the other for the legend The legend to the clipboard by the right mouse button TIT ions Actual Rainfall in mm 0 0 to 10 0 10 0 to 20 0 D 20 0 to 30 0 B 20 0 to 50 0 Ot Copy legend to Clipboard Wi BEN i 200 0 Edit Legend We 300 0 Load Legend LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 78 9 Using data from the LIU database For general information please read paragraph 1 4 There are many applications thinkable of the data inside the LIU database in LEAP To name just a few e Checking planting dates and crop cycle length in LEAP against LIU e Establishing where certain crop are grown adjusting LEAP masks e Finding out in which areas drought has the largest impact on the population knowing the rate of dependency on self sufficiency in food production e Vastly improved knowledge of the agro pastoral production cycle and support for the development of an agropastoral index for LEAP For use in LEAP the LIU data have been converted into an open Microsoft Access database to be found in the HEA directory HEA mdb The original LIU Excel sheets can also be found in that directory Ethiopia_DB xls Some information could not be converted such as reference year This information is available in this Excel sheet 9 1 Displaying LIU data in LEAP The display of data is done through the LEAP viewer This first ite
30. the year EE Rain Actual Data Rain Normal Data LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 71 8 2 4 2 Viewing water balance details for a pixel WB parameters only The first option displays a complete water balance calculation for a pixel _ oj x First line iew Calculation in detail details about Calculation Details for Pixel 101 Line 57 Longitude 42 75 Latitude 39 45 JIJIGA the pixel Cycle length 10 dekads C selected Total Water requirements 387 wu TWH Normal water requirements 367 mm TWERHor Crop and Planting dekad 9 iP soil Maximum soil water storage 105 mm H or WHC details Effective Total rain 100 IE or ELS Pre season Fer 0 30 DATE NOF ACT WEE ET ECE WE vi SW S D INDEX Jan dek 1 1 o Oo 440 30 13 13 o Jan dek Z 7 o 0 440 30 13 13 o Jan dek 3 Z o Oo 43 0 30 13 13 o Feb dek 1 o o 0 400 30 12 lz o Feb dek z 1 o O 410 30 12 l o Feb dek 3 3 o 0 43 0 30 13 13 o Water Mar dek 1 13 O oO 49 0 30 15 15 O Balances Mar dek Z 32 o 0 51 0 30 15 15 o s details Mar dek 3 26 o 0 52 0 30 16 16 Oo 16 36 Apr dek 1 71 g 0 50 0 30 15 15 oO 15 92 dekad by Apr dek Z 41 34 34 49 0 52 Z5 9 9 o 92 dekad kpr dek 3 44 13 13 49 0 950 44 31 0 22 6 May dek 1 27 43 43 501 70 60 17 oO 17 82 May dek Z 35 z8 8 49 1 70 59 31 0 31 74 May dek 3 30 7 7 49 1 70 59 52 0 52 60 Jun dek 1 31 10 l0 48 1 Z0 58 48 0 48 48 Jun dek z 11l o Oo 48 0 84 40 40 0 40 38 Jun dek 3 13 z0 ZO 47 0 25 lz E E
31. two types of spreadsheets with meteorological parameters 3 1 5 1 Type 1 Daily Rainfall data An example Excel spreadsheet file is shown below EJ Microsoft Excel NMA Station rainfall data 95 06 LPCI xIs i 10 x File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Type a question for help X ISA RAGA BG amp aD I A 41 MOG sretatcrtiens B i ara AIE S a E eB u S ua a o a 4A gj Ref th Changes End Review F28 z fe D 1997 2 Station name Month Ready LEAP can integrate this type of data when the following structural prerequisites are met in the TAB sheets Every year in its own sheet The year itself in cell A1 The station names in columns A starting at row 3 The month numbers in column B starting at row 3 YYYY Y All days 1 31 from columns C through to AG starting at row 3 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 28 If the spreadsheet format is different it will have to be changed in such a way that it adheres to the principles outlined above Use the following menu option to integrate this type of sheet into LEAP LEAP ersion 2 20 Tuesday April 13 2010 Application in C Wfp Project Data Calculate View Export Options Tools Products Help Crops gt Rangeland gt Rainfall Import RFE1 Rainfall gt ETO gt Import RFEZ2 Rainfall gt Calculate Normals gt Import ARC Rainfall b Pick up new data internet Import TAMSAT Rainfall gt Import Monitoring
32. will be selectable at all times As an example for the selection of a rainfall image the crop is irrelevant 8 2 The Viewer main screen The most important functions of the viewer are explained in red in the window below LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 68 Zoom out Save Zoom to k a QaQm G Pan _ Copy to clipboard Other Shape File __ Zoom to Region Zoom in Final Index RSI in fraction Zoom out completely Final Index WRSI in fraction 2010 Maize Belg gt 0 0to50 0 Complete failure al gt 50 0to 60 0 Poor B 60 0 to 80 0 Mediocre B 0 0 to 90 0 Average B 20 0 to 95 0 Good E 25 0 to 100 0 Very Good Title move with mouse to see file name SINE Taa ar Value 87 Pixel 97 Line 68 Longitude 42 40 Latitude 8 34 Somali Fik Fik avigation 2009 r J gt Normal Index Total Water Requirement Display in Google Earth Aggregate to Excel Export to GIS Other Dataset Current BELG lt None gt X 8 2 1 Selecting another image Selecting another image is done through either this button Select Parameter to Yiew Or by pressing one of the navigation buttons at the bottom right of the window lt m gt a E 8 2 2 The legend The legend displays the value ranges After double clicking the legend the legend editor is displayed The legend editor shows a histogram at the bottom and allows the use
33. 0 700000 66666 90 30 25 86430 51414 2010 700000 66666 90 30 29 79842 51515 2010 700000 66666 90 35 25 93749 T 51516 2010 700000 66666 90 35 29 90022 To Excel m Exit Note Each row containes the log model parameter setup and the corresponding Population Affected Figure 7 Probability distribution and cumulative probability distribution of the potential beneficiaries estimated by LEAP Scenarios for the decisor Safe Scenario i F UO e High cost 9 e Low risk of no L 400 00 assistance for 8 affected population z 80 00 60 00 Frequency o1 Mid Scenario recueney e Intermediate cost Cumulative e Mid risk of no 40 00 assistance for affected population 2 20 00 Risky Scenario 0 00 e Low cost S w S S S S S S S S S S S S e High risk of no V FF HF HFK pw FFE HK SF assistance for Beneficiaries affected population WFP f United Nations eS 4 VY World Food WEY Programme Note The blue bars represent the frequency number of beneficiaries in the output table computed in LEAP The blue line with squares represents the corresponding cumulative distribution Different intervention scenarios may be designed 6 6 Checklist This checklist includes all the necessary step for a customized needs computation We do not discuss here all possible tunings of sowing window Length of Growing Period percentage of each crop in the basket wa
34. 00 Please note that in Excel percentages are often formatted values between 0 and 1 In other words 0 5 is sometimes displayed as 50 amd sometimes as 0 5 Planting Dekad Zonal By defining planting dekads here the calculated planting dekads can be overridden Water Holding Capacity This determines the maximum amount of water the soil can hold These data are crop specific Effective Rainfall Percentage This value is usually 100 meaning that all rainfall water is available to the crop Could different gt Or lt than 100 in case of run off or run on Y Y Y Y Pres season KCR value This is the KCT value of a soil that does not carry a crop The data are organized according to tabs Sowing Window Start Dekad Sowing Window End Dekad LGP Crop Basket The organisation within a sheet is as follows Crop names should match Zone names should match the names on the map the names defined in LEAP EJ Microsoft Excel Belg New xls File Edit View Insert Format Tools Q Oee Bag ai7G 4 ae F fe D22 M A JE e zone Teff_Bel Barley_Bel Wheat_Bel Maize_Bel Addis Ababa Region 14 a Afar Zone 1 Afar Zone 2 Afar Zone 3 Afar Zone 4 Afar Zone 5 Somali Afder 10 Gambela Agnuak 11 SNNPR Alaba Special ajomas w gt 12 SNNPR Amaro Special 13 Oromia Arsi 14 Beneshangul Gumu Asosa 15 Amhara Awi Agew 16 Oromia Bale il SNNPR Basketo Special 18 SNNPR Bench Maji 19 Oro
35. 08 April 1 Cito WnegesNDVIMETEOSA TI2005 NDV1_2008_4_1 mg Mage crested 17 04 06 17 52 00 ae SY Sah Disply nGoogeEsth Aggregate to Excel Export to GIS FLT Absolute NDVI The images are based on METEOSAT second generation imagery MSG2 and have a resolution of roughly 3 x 3 km The resolution differs from the other images in LEAP and therefore the Excel aggregation will not work with NDVI images e x Mask lt none gt Select Parameter to View k KOJSKO A amp Boundaries _woreda bna Deviation NDVI in fraction 2008 April 1 Hi gt 0 50 to 0 08 Largs Dec C Mitplimages NDVINMETEOSAT Q008 NDVIDFF _2008_4_1 img image created 11 04 06 17 5200 HB gt 0 06t0 0 02 Smal Dec me sees Rho Se gt zi Compare to Normal B00210010 Smal he r On at F d yz Bl 006 10030 Lape he Lee ges eae ote ha BS g EEO Parte 4 ri tats j x a 2 Ass f T a Po t e Lee t E E aS S re Display in Google E arth Aggregate to Excel ExpottoGIS FLT NDVI deviation with previous dekad LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 8 The LEAP image viewer LEAP contains an image viewer with some advanced functions that will be explained in this chapter The viewer is accessed through the View menu item LEAP Yersion 1 ON Wednesday September 26 2007 Data Calculate view Export Options Tools Help 8 1 Selecting the image to view When opening the view
36. 1 3 199509 4 201036 4426212 3 210309 3 ALEMKETEMA ETO ALEMEYA ETO ALGE ETO 3 537639 4 169579 2 924942 2 925405 4 157018 3 642696 3 IETO 3 970452 4 650469 4 375846 4 262666 4 6577 3 942302 3 AMBO AGRC ETO 2 781965 4 959462 3 14465 3 225734 3 720761 3 296594 2 ARSI NEGELLE ETO 3 682559 3 5832 9 689796 3 564347 3 564054 3 585318 3 ARSI ROBE ETO 2 744233 2 624003 2 624369 4 641415 4 598756 3 820285 3 ASELLA ETO 3 674227 3 674913 3 687403 3 667995 3 66054 3 669039 3 ASGORE ETO 3 674227 3 674913 3 687403 3 687995 3 68654 3 689039 3 ASSAYITA ETO 4 687577 4 957579 4 957084 8 945841 7 998361 5617172 8 ASOSSA ETO 3 729632 3 12959 2 239145 4 310327 4 066534 4 180607 3 AWASH 7 KILO ETO 2 922624 2 923003 2 923355 2 923681 2 923981 2 924255 2 4 A 51Nna47 5 ONGA1S 5 1TARBANA 5 719007 5 ARR em 4 9A9449 5 Daily ETO from June 2007 xls IKI a Ready 2 Calculate Dekadal ETO The calculated dekadal ETO data are put Dekadal ETO June 2007 xls LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 38 EJ Microsoft Excel Sheet t loj x File Edit wiew Insert Format Tools Data Window Help O GHLEANN i toe Eo amp ud e ee zi j fi f Reply with Changes 2 ABOMSA ETO 3 ADIGRAT ETO ETO ETO 6 ALEMKETIETO 7 JALEMEYA ETO ETO 9 AMBAMAR ETO 41 5 10 AMBO AGFETO 33 8 11 JARS NEG ETO 35 61 1 ARSI ROBETO 36 4 13 ASELLA ETO 36 9 14 ASGORE ETO 36 9 15 ASSAYITA ETO 68 9 16 ASOSSA ETO 34 5 17 AWASH 7 ETO 79 2
37. 1 for Ethiopia Page 4 Crop selection Crop coefficier ts X Fraction Tett Detant So Dee gee eee od soe eee onon nop oon o ge eee se pee ee Se poses E A o a aS a ee nl nnn E E a rghit cla aa Nk ay Ma ae ante a i aca a Daal ane an ON fie ee a iat alee Mart ator a Verte Maree ie lain Matar aoe oe toe Initial T pa a E o A a a To a OB po aka T A ag ess eee ieee Canine D are a PENN e ae pares ee D ee fee Vegetative au Cammee s e T E ee TN E Sere Flowering i T Jo as eicaaaialy 5 Feats T AE Tr 1 jp _ oid EE 0 Ce aoe aaa ane aaa Renna Ss aoe en ees a 0 24 E E e e E e 1 Save ghanges 0 0 1 o 2 0 3 0 4 0 0 6 0 7 08 0 9 Percentage offcycle length The 4 Change the Graph displaying the crop coefficients A typical hat phenological crop shape should be visible phasesin crop Coefficients life here 4 2 Working with zonal crop data Besides data related to the crop characteristics itself data related to the geographical area where the crop is grown is essential to calculate a water balance In LEAP these data are specified by Zone and in future releases also by Woreda The Zonal crop data are kept in an Excel spreadsheet to ensure easy editing The sheets will have to be converted into LEAP images before the water balance calculation can be done 4 2 1 Check the Zones and their names LEAP defines a list of Zones This l
38. 354 Addis Ababa Bole 35 77 3 03 2354 8 Addis Ababa Obs 35 75 3 03 2405 19 ADDIS ABABA OBS 35 75 3 03 2408 Addis Ababa Obs 35 75 3 03 2405 Addis Femen 37 87 17 12 i550 Addis Zemen 37 87 12 12 1550 ADIGRAT 39 45 14 00 2750 ADIGRAT 39 45 14 00 2280 Agarfa 39 52 7 28 2550 Agarfa 39 52 7 28 2550 ALEMAY A 47 02 9 43 2125 418 Alemaya 47 02 9 43 2125 Alemeya 47 07 3 43 2125 Alemketema 39 03 10 03 2750 dlemketema 39 03 10 03 2250 I 4 Hh stations fal H Ready NUM Ze The fourth option in the settings window enables the import of just one month The option is provided to check whether a rainfall spreadsheet is integrated well without having to import a whole file Importing a complete file might take some time After pressing Ok the file in integrated The station based rainfall will be converted into images as shown in the picture below The data for the rainfall stations on the left side are converted into an image using the Inverse Distance Interpolation Method The Inverse Distance Interpolation Method is described here http en wikipedia org wiki Inverse_distance_weighting After processing LEAP reports Number of stations found in c program files LEAP NMA NMA Station rainfall data 95 06 LPCI xls 106 Stations not found in sheet c program files LEAP NMA stations xls BAHITRDAR NEKEMT FITCHE SHAMBU ALIGUDOM ASEBE BALEROBE DEGEHABUR Created image c program files LEAP Images Rain NMA 1995 Rain 1995 1 1 img
39. 4 4 g AMHARA N Gonder 4 4 10 AMHARA S Gonder 4 4 11 AMHARA N Wello 4 4 12 AMHARA S Wello 4 4 13 AMHARA North Shoa 4 4 14 AMHARA E Gojam 4 4 15 AMHARA W Gojam 4 4 16 AMHARA vi Hamra 4 4 i AMHARA Agew Awi 4 4 18 AMHARA Oromia 4 4 19 OROMIA Wi Wellega 4 4 20 OROMIA E Wellega 21 OROMIA Illubabor 4 4 2a ao Jimma 4 4 west Shewa 4 4 R 4 4 gt Dl Dekad Calendar Sowing Window Start Dekad Sowing Window End Dekad o f gt Ready 7 4 3 5 Step 5 Import the zonal sheets Use the function Data Crops Import Crop Data from Zone Spreadsheet to import the data added to the sheets in the previous step Now continue as normal with the calculation of planting dekads and the calculation of the water balance 4 4 Determining planting dekads In the previous paragraph a planting window is determined with the Sowing Window Start Dekad and Sowing Window Start End parameters The second step is to let LEAP determine a planting dekad within this time window Determining the planting dekad Sowing Sowing Dekad y Dekad Start End First dekad that fulfils planting rule i G 13 21 Year dekad 1 to 36 In this example LEAP will look for a planting dekad between dekad 8 mid March and 21 End of 3b July The rule applied to determine the planting dekad is a simple one LEAP will look for two consecutive dekads in which certain rainfall thresholds are exceeded This
40. 45 Mean 53 Regression R 0 632113257283554 Slope 0 562172168579983 Intercept 13 2413406198711 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110120 130140150 160170180 lt Station Data gt Previous Dekad Next Dekad Labels Navigate to previous and next dekad Whether to see station labels With this tool it is apparent that the correlation with NMA ground data is better for the NMA_SEDI dataset below than for the ARC dataset above At least for July 1 2006 Comparing datasets 10 x X axis lt Station Data gt Number of Pixels 81 Maximum 187 Minimum 0 Standard Deviation 51 Mean 70 NMA_SEDI Number of Pixels 81 Maximum 169 Minimum 0 Standard Deviation 46 Mean 73 Regression R 0 928747132632955 Slope 0 827631591450398 0 Intercept 15 191 7962364444 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110120130140150 160170180 lt Station Data gt Previous Dekad Next Dekad Labels 3 1 8 What to do after importing new rainfall data When new rainfall data have been imported the normal images potentially need recalculation Two functions in LEAP calculate normals Function 1 Creating normals for Rainfall and ETO and write the results to a new dataset This function is accessed through Data Calculate Normals For WB calculations This function creates the normal rainfall used during water balance calculations Settings LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 34 Image Base l
41. Belg Lentils_ Meher Maize_Belg Maize_MeherLongCycle Maize_MeherShortCycle Potatos_Belg Potatos_Meher Sorghum_Belg Sorghum_MeherLongCycle Sorghum_MeherShortCycle Sweet Potatos_Belg Sweet Potatos_Meher Teff_Bela Teff_Meher Wheat_Belg W bys Fangeland_G Rangeland_Dyer af Save Changes X Exit Subsequently add the crop to the crop basket x MOT in Basket Barley Belg Finger Millet_MeherLongl a i Finger Millet_Mehers hort Haricot Bean_Meher Finger Millet_Belg Horse Bean_Meher Haricot Bean Belg Lentils_ Meher Horse Bean Belg Maze MeherLonglycle Lentils_Belg Maize_MeherShartCycle Maize Belg Potatos_Meher Sorghurn_MeherLonglych Sorghum Belg Sorghurn_MeherShortlyc Sweet Potatos_Belg Tett Meher Sweet Potatos_Meher fara STE TE In Basket ni 4 3 4 Step 4 Add the new crop to the Zonal spreadsheet Open the Zonal spreadsheet and add the crops with their full name to the 7 worksheets with appropriate values Function to use Data Crops View Change Crop Data in Zone Spreadsheet LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 47 ioii Es File Edit wiew Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Type a question for help X la SOG Snel afdrukken n E Tahoma z110 B Z U fal AES v E ee 1 2 Region zone Sweet Potatos Belo SHEEN _Gu ranea _ Dyer TIGRAY C Tigray 4 TIGRAY Wi Tigray 3 i 5 TIGRAY E Tigray 4 4 6 TIGRAY S Tigray 4 4 7 AFAR 4 Zonel 4 4 8 AFAR 4 Zones
42. Default values correspond to the seasonal production shares provided by DRMEFSS 6 4 2 Log model parameters Depending on the type of seasonal assessment to be performed LEAP gives hints for parameters to be used in the log model One important aspect to bear in mind during the needs computation is that the selection of an exact value for log model parameters is not possible For example the uncertainty in the selection of the values for the climate parameters Wo Wmax F is affected by availability of limited time series that do not cover the entire range of possible outcomes of a crop season On the other hand the population parameters N No are also rather uncertain not only because the historical record is short but also because the historical beneficiaries include some degree of subjective informed judgment that tries to account for risk factors different than drought LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 60 Therefore needs computation approach in LEAP is to allow the user to select a range of values for the log model setup and a number of intermediate steps in order to produce an estimate of the uncertainty of model predictions If a certain number of intermediate steps are selected N gt 1 LEAP performs the needs computation with all possible combination of log model parameters It 1s then recommended to use a number of intermediate steps that is not too large N lt 4 for any of the parameters is usually a good choice Larg
43. Ethiopia Page 11 LEAP InstallShield Wizard License Agreement Please read the following license agreement carefully This is version 2 20 of the LEAP application Please do not distribute For more Information contact Niels Balzer Project Manager WFP LEAP project Niels Balzer org lt mailto Niels Balzer org gt Peter Hoefsloot Agrometeorologist and GiS software specialist Peter Hoefsloot wxs nl lt mailto Peter Hoefsloot wxs nl gt Nicctimer z accept the terms of the license agreement Print e a a a d InstallShield Accept the license agreement to continue The default installation loaction is the LEAP directory in the Program Files directory This directory can be changed with the Change button LEAP InstallShield Wizard Choose Destination Location Select folder where setup will install files Install LEAP to C Program Files LEAP Change InstallShield Subsequently the user is asked to specify which parts of the LEAP program are to be installed In a fresh installation both elements program and database need to be installed Should the image database from the previous installation be preserved the images database checkbox has to be unchecked LEAP InstallShield Wizard Select Features Select the features setup will install Select the features you want to install and deselect the features you do not want to install
44. FP The name of the package is LEAP The letters of the word LEAP originally stood for Livelihood Ethiopia Assessment Protection The design goals of LEAP are Platform for the calculation of weather based indices starting out with the calculation of a water balance indicator WRSI designed by FAO and used for many years The WRSI is based on a small set of input data is transparent and being used with success for many years by FEewsNET Africa JRC of EU worldwide FAO Africa and Asia AgrometShell and others Extensibility Built in ability to produce indexes related to rangeland farmers livelihoods flooding and funds needed to protect livelihoods Although the platform is currently filled with information for Ethiopia it should be usable outside Ethiopia Compatibility with AgroMetShell and other existing software All results viewable in maps Grid based This is important to ensure the above mentioned insensitivity for missing data For Ethiopia a 0 1 degree grid has been chosen See paragraph 1 1 Different input and output datasets give the possibility to work with scenarios Lots of pre loaded and pre calculated data Flexible number of crops YYYY YYY Y Y Specific Import functions for data from all sources available Although the tool is designed to support index calculation for ex ante risk management purposes many other uses are possible Notably studies into irrigation climate change soil characteristics and
45. GBl sA am JlI e Fi il Al Actual Rainfall in mm 2010 March 2 o 1 Actual Rainfall in mrm 2010 March 2 MAME 1 MAME 2 Value Number of pixels Region 14 18 3 4 fone 1 3 1 Zee fone 2 0 3 24 fone 3 31 1 135 fone 4 2 E Zone 5 cee 4 AAGE 0 4 fo East Gojam 10 3 118 Morth Gondar 1 5 361 Morth Shewa F3 10 2 136 Morth ollo 5 2 101 Oromiya 24 6 ar south Gonder 44 115 south Wollo 10 144 specal VWoreda 25 7 J Wag Himra 5 5 fa Amhara West Gojam a r 105 Beneshangul Gumu Asosa 0 4 125 Beneshangul Gumu kemashi 0 1 ig Beneshangul Gumu Metekal 0 211 Dire Dawa Dire Dawa 20 3 E AA lGarmhala annak 1AA and In this example the third row number 3 states that for Zone 1 in Afar an average value of 3 1 mm of rainfall is extracted from 277 pixels of 0 1 0 1 degrees 8 2 9 Display values in Google Earth For this function Google Earth has the be installed on the system Google Earth is free and can be downloaded from http earth google com A good internet connection is needed as well to load satellite imagery in real time LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 76 Once Google Earth is installed press the button below Display in Google E arth Google Earth will be loaded and all data will be superimposed over the satellite imagery of the package Zooming is in imperative as the display is too crowded for a complete overview of Ethiopia Google Earth iv terrain gt
46. H Zoom in Press this button and drag a box on the map amy Pan Press this button and drag the image The zoom factor will remain the same Another part of the image will appear KA Zoom out Press this button to zoom out completely i Previous and Next zoom area 8 2 8 Aggregate to Excel With this function the values for the image displayed are exported to Excel Aggregate to Excel As an example a rainfall image is displayed Assuming that the data are to be aggregated by Zone the Zonal boundary file is displayed Boundaries zone bna The window itself has the Zonal boundaries superimposed LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 75 Viewer 215 x Boundanes Mask Select Parameter to View ESMMNNNNNNNNN sone it Zoom to kY ARaoGO wo Actual Rainfall in mm 2010 March 2 Actual Rainfall in mm 00to 100 Compare to Noma gt 100t0 200 E 200 to 30 0 O ETET O EA W oo o to 2000 2200 0 to 300 0 2300 0 to 400 0 Messing Image Values Value 0 Piel 155 Line 74 Longitude 50 03 Lathade 6 13 Navigation lt Macht gt Mach3 _ lt 4 DaplyinGoogeEath Aggregate to Excel Expert to GIS Other Dataset Cunan RFE2 lt Select After pressing the Aggregate to Excel button Excel is opened with the aggregated values for the Zones EJ Microsoft Excel Sheeti Eg File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help oa H RB SliGRIlIF
47. LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia User manual wen OF a A KPA ere t J oT DORT A Livelihood Early Assessment Protection LEAP eK LEAP Version 2 61 Created Monday Aprii 9 2012 Loading Peter Hoefsloot Sandro Calmanti Consultant to the World Food Program April 17 2012 Government of Ethiopia g WFP A United Nations World Food Programme The Livelihoods Food and Agriculture Integration Unit LIU Organization of the United supported by USAID Nations World Bank World Food Program Of the United Nations Table of Contents PNCKMNOW IEC SCMCIS tinct t cust ahaa meer a teeter 3 E e ETa EE a E E E E A A hin S EE E E E A S 6 l l Developing weather based Indexes oranseniiisnsn en sweeter a 6 t2 The Etiopian esperen E en NE E ET 7 1 3 LEAP a software platform to calculate weather based indexes ccceeeeeeees 7 LA Theimcorpotated LIU dataDas ninsis a 8 1 5 Getting the software and more information cccccccccccceseseeeeeeceeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeeeeeeaas 8 LO Compatibility with Other SOMWaAne essor E E A 8 Er Diea ST a esetncnateee eee arg e se hein cp seca eege ennde eeccina a eaeeees eee 9 2 LEAP BISO ee ge Se oT E ne 11 2 1 Prerequisites for using LEAP sstssscencssscsasserscatancicrsaseasercdscciar a is 11 22 asune he POST sa A 11 De Sa LEA P ea TA 13 24 Indexes produced BY LEAP iecccnniicieeeiin a ateccutieake 13 Zid Pro loaded AAAS C lS seses nadetedeysadesnsendi
48. Length O Water Holding Capacity Pre Planting Crop Coefficients O Effective Rainfall Percentage O Sowing Window Start Dekad Sowing Window End Dekad Crop Basket Water Balance AUNT z Percentage Available Data Total Water Requirement Year 2000 Month July X Dekad 3 Crop Teff_Belg af Display J Cancel Then see the data displayed on a map 6 x Crop Mask lt none gt Select Parameter to View h u m a Dd Boundaries _woreda bna Actual Evapotranspiration in mm 2006 June 3 E to 20 020 C Wvfp images ETOWMA 20061ETO_2008_6_3 img 20te 40 2040 401060 4060 Compare to Normal gt 60to80 6080 M 80 to 100 80100 100 to 120 100120 E 120 to 140 120140 E i 40 to 160 140160 Missing Image Values Value 19 Pixel 129 Line 11 Longitude 45 55 Latitude 14 03 Navigation a 207 a Parameter Parameter Display in Google Earth Aggregate to Excel More information on the viewer in chapter 7 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 40 4 Working with crop data 4 1 Working with crops and crop characteristics Within LEAP crops are defined with the Data Crops View Change Base Crops function This function gives access to the window below Currently 13 crops are defined The crop definitions are independent of growing period e g Belg or Meher and cycle length of the crop Defining a new crop
49. P TAMSAT afRTIM9 Y img Image Base Directory Image base directory c program files LEAP Images DAAE Paa name of the dataset to write the image TAMSAT Reference The name of the reference image c program image determining the size of the output image files LEAP Images ref img A complete directory of files can be imported into LEAP with the Data Rainfall Import TAMSAT Rainfall Directory function LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 27 Input Name of the directory where TAMSAT c program directory files can be found files _LEAP TAMSAT afRTIM9Y img Image Base Directory Image base directory c program files LEAP Images The name of the dataset to write the image TAMSAT to Dataset name Reference The name of the reference image c program image determining the size of the output image files LEAP Images ref img 3 1 5 The NMA Rainfall archive NMA is the National Meteorological Agency of the Republic of Ethiopia NMA provides on a daily and dekadal basis data for Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Rainfall Relative Humidity Wind Speed and Sunshine Hours Contrary to the four sources of rainfall estimates mentioned before the NMA data come as station data basically points Within LEAP working with NMA rainfall is restricted by a password The password can be requested from the Director General of the NMA of Ethiopia The rest of this paragraph assumes that the password is known NMA provides
50. P version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 50 5 Calculating the crop indexes The indexes form the heart of the LEAP application In this chapter water balances yield reduction and moisture index are being calculated 5 1 Calculating the water balance WRSI Three functions support the calculation of a Water Balance All three functions produce the same results The function differ in the number of calculations performed Calculate Water Balance 1 Crop 1 Season This function calculates just one water balance Calculate Water Balance 1 Crop more Seasons This function calculates water balances for 1 crop during more season Selecting the period 1995 2007 would result in 13 water balance calculations Calculate Water Balance All Crops more Seasons This function simply calculates the water balance for all crops not just the basket crops for the number of season specified This enables the recalculation of the whole archive As an example the first function will be applied with the following settings Crop and crop The name of the crop and the crop coefficients coefficients always default First year of season year First year of season season The year in which the crop is planted 2007 Image Base l l The image database directory c program files LEAP Images belek sas Water Balance Output dataset Dataset name Minimum The minimum percentage available data Percentage If 100 all actual data should be present Av
51. SS Dr Muktar Reshid and Teshome Erkineh Niels Balzer Policy Officer Office for Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Policy Planning and Strategy Division United Nations World Food Programme Rome Italy Dr Sandro Calmanti ACS CLIM MOD ENEA 00060 Santa Maria di Galeria Rome ITALY Dr Fabio Giulio Tonolo and Franca Disabato ITHACA Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance Cooperation and ActionVia Pier Carlo Boggio 61 10138 Torino Italy Elliot Vhurumuku United Nations World Food Programme Ethiopia P O Box 25584 Code 1000 Addis Ababa Tel Office 251 11 551 51 88 Tel Mobile 251 911 214 561 Fax 251 11551 44 33 Elliot Vhurumuku wfp org Vanessa Cardamone and Giuditta De Simone Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Policy Planning amp Strategy Division UN World Food Programme Rome Italy Wellsedijk 27 5325 XN Well The Netherlands Tel 31 73 5992889 31 6 29 00 68 30 mobile Peter hoefsloot com LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 5 1 Introduction Farmers all over the world face weather risks These risks remain very real even with the introduc tion of new crop varieties crop production technology such as irrigation and new management practices that offer the potential to increase yields and improve resistance to weather events Especially in developing countries these risks have a severe impact on the livelihoods of farmers and
52. T ee ee 0 TT S I I I 1 I OS Pe ae S I I I I I l 1ot Li 0 wl 1235456769 1113151719 21 25 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 Dekads 1 36 first year and 37 2 second year To Excel E Actual Rainfall Normal Rainfall With the To Excel button these values are exported to Excel EJ Microsoft Excel Sheet loj x Fie Edit Yiew Insert Format Tools Data Window Help f X ASALE 0 Bio B ua u ua a o se Ay ga z Al v A amp D Column A Actual 3 Rainfall 2 Column B k Normal 13 Rainfall LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 73 8 2 4 4 Reveal all input data for the water balance at the pixel WB parameters only The right mouse button option Report on input data availability gives access to all input data for a certain pixel Fs inputvaluetracking aT El Crop a Planting dekad 3 Cycle length 10 Water Holding Capacity 119 Effective Rainfall Percentage 100 Pre season ECR 0 30 H Rainfall ETO Normal January 1 43 Normal January 2 44 Normal January 3 44 Normal February 1 41 Normal February 2 41 Normal February 3 43 Normal March 1 45 Normal March z 49 Normal March 3 Normal April 1 z Normal April 8 2 5 Masking out areas in the viewer In some cases it is handy to mask out certain areas in the image As an example if the user is interested in just the Belg growing season areas where Belg crops are non
53. TH Me 29 20 U g 5 Zf BORENA 20 18 U U 2 U 25 BURJ S 16 aU U U 18 2 ate C TIGRAY U 15 0 U U 20 2 DAA 115 35 U U 11 3 g1 DEGEHAE 0 0 0 U 0 0 4 F Wh Rainfall mm Fram LEAP 3 Jal 3 IP aso Rainfall for the first lt Zone dekad of January Dataset used 2002 based on dataset priority 11 2Export Water Balance Parameters to Excel Exporting Water Balance parameters is done with the Export Export Water Balance Parameters to Excel function LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 87 Aggregation These are the boundaries used boundaries for the aggregation c Wfp Bna zone bna The settings above will produce the following Excel file inlxi File Edit wiew Insert Format Tools Data Window Help amp x Nae aig a1 A OO Bag u a a ee o a A H gA Ye Reply with changes fi A5 hi fe M GONDER lll e i c l D S E 1 Final Index for Maize_MeherLongCycle Runt Year 2000 2001 2002 A ZONE 4B ela J2 A ONE 3 Zt d A ZONES G4 42 a1 B A ZONE4 51 42 38 7 ADDIS ABABA gr oF i4 8 AFDER 8 J AGEVY AVI 972 100 45 ALABA SW g5 B3 od 11 AMARO S ate 55 59 ARSI Ti fl o4 ASUSA gg 100 ga BALE 5 31 44 BASKETO S gg Bd i 16 BENCH MAJI fq ate og BORENA 44 J2 4 18 BURJI S BU oJ EA Z TIGRAY fo g0 i DAWRO 100 gg g7 21 DEGEHABUR 22 DIRASHE S fie 23 DIRE DAWA 82 x M 4 Hf Water Balance data From LEAP lal z mr 11 3Export Crop Basket WRSI to Excel With this function the user can export Crop basket WRSI val
54. VIS NIR VIS Calculations of NDVI for a given pixel always result in a number that ranges from minus one 1 to plus one 1 however no green leaves gives a value close to zero A zero means no vegetation and close to 1 0 8 0 9 indicates the highest possible density of green leaves The higher the NDVI value is the higher the photosynthetic activity of the land cover In LEAP two NDVI products are available Both products can be downloaded with the Data amp Pick up new data internet function Display of the images is done in the LEAP viewer View menu The parameter selection gives access to e Absolute dekadal NDVI images These images takes the highest NDVI value out of a 10 day hourly series roughly 120 images e NDVI deviation The difference in NDVI of the current dekad with the previous dekad Color table ranges from red NDVI decreases to green NDVI increases iix O All Woredas Cost Estimate High O PSNP Woredas Cost Estimate High 2l Rangeland TEXAS_AES k O Rangeland Production O Deviation Rangeland Production NEVI Vegetation Greenness METEOSAT Vegetation Greenness NDVI O Deviation NDY Year 2008 Y Dekad 1 X Crop Maize Belg L Display 3 Cancel LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 66 A Mack creme Select Parameter to View KE OO H O OU y nite pie reentry Boundaries _ wor a Vegetation Greenness MDVI m fraction 20
55. WRSI value for the case of No planting i Calculate Regional WRSI Start Year End Year Also import new Crop Basket Weights WRSI value for No planting Jf OK X Cancel LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 65 7 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI in LEAP Vegetation appears very different at visible and near infrared wavelengths In visible light vegetated areas are very dark almost black while desert regions like the Sahara are light At near infrared wavelengths the vegetation is brighter and deserts are about the same By comparing visible and infrared light scientists measure the relative amount of vegetation NDVI is calculated from the visible and near infrared light reflected by vegetation Healthy vegetation left absorbs most of the visible light that hits it and reflects a large portion of the near infrared light Unhealthy or sparse vegetation right reflects more visible light and less near infrared light The numbers on the figure above are representative of actual values but real vegetation is much more varied Nearly all satellite Vegetation Indices employ this difference formula to quantify the density of plant growth on the Earth near infrared radiation minus visible radiation divided by near infrared radiation plus visible radiation The result of this formula is called the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI Written mathematically the formula is NDVI NIR
56. action index LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 72 An important parameter is the percentage of actual rainfall data which has been used in the calculations lower right corner In this case there are no missing data as the calculations were done at the end of the cycle Please note that the water balance shown is re calculated just before display Therefore if any of the underlying data planting dekads rainfall etc have changed there will be differences in the data displayed in the image and the details shown in this window Furthermore the water balance details are based on calculated planting dekads If for the calculation of the images the manually specified planting dekads are used then differences between image and details will also become apparent 8 2 4 3 Viewing two year rainfall for a pixel WB parameters only With the second menu option View Rainfall a graph of two years of rainfall for that particular pixel is shown LT j lx Year 2000 2001 Pixel 1 Line 9 Longitude 39 74 Latitude 5 45 LIBEN GUI E I 1 I I 1 I I I I I i I I 1 I I E a I 1 I I 1 I I eS RE I I I I I I I i Ko i Li i Li Li i Li Li 1 I i 1 UE Se Le eh i I I I I I I I EE T A TE UAE TOR R i I 1 I I 1 I I i U i 1 i At tet I I 1 I I 1 I I ot LOLI LI l l l Li 1 l l a Le E E ie I 1 I I 1 I I OS SU S E S A E I I I I I I I a VE U Le Feel a E 1a I 1 I I 1 I I 1ot dod oe I I 1 I I 1 I i Liem oe teens oboe maan re EA kI
57. adamestsmogi nedetedepsiesseandiancs 14 20 Dataset pion y ee a vetsedrinahomtuva a edeahnece vated eine nat 15 pid AFOD lt Ce eee pe Ee A een eye emer rnc en enna ethan O ewe 16 2S GENE NEW F212 CO a dS ra re T 17 29 Whe Visual Mentsen cins ee Seach tea a eeee enedaeeeets 18 2 10 PEO JC CLS cose srosadsvesieaata axscusssscoacecteauaeyiasasaas E E TE 19 ZAQ Sune NeW POCO aena sate a aeaea eet aneseaee aaaeees 20 20 2 Openins an CxiStine Proje cl airsean a eee rarseusinieateaned aeeliaee 20 2105 Savin he Current SCUUIES 2eeceesasccckeadint sus eveshua wend sueyaseieimtent ois qaetends i ousruees 20 DAA DELNE a DO C er d lees ateeuilessaahe E imo ate 21 a gt Workine with meteorolo vical Gata oriana a sh deere eam tebe eenshadeerion 22 IE Raa a a E E E eeu ees 22 JLL RFPELR n alkar hiye e ton sartaladsean di wusivausaitsietes 22 IL REE Ramia are DINE e a actrsaminelensandedegbeseenmetetse 23 S215 Ane ARC Tam Aae VE ciee a A ale eaeieiaaeh ieee eae 29 Ska The TAMSA T rainiall archiv 6 tciouicentaisiombauacetaetivuloinctiaintiesiataaiia 26 Sk Tbe NMA Ramfala rehiye essensie ana 28 3 1 6 Combining NMA point data and satellite based data to a new rainfall estimate 32 3 1 7 Comparing the quality of images in datasets cccccccccecsssseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 33 3 1 8 What to do after importing new rainfall data cccsseeseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 34 ILO Viewin Deran alata cis anisineusasstansentets bras nanate
58. ailable Actual If O no actual data need to be present for Data the calculation of a WB Water Excess The minimum amount of excess water 100 Threshold mm that triggers an index reduction Index Reduce Value in case of Excess Maize_MeherLongCycle The actual index reduction when water excess occurs Use Zonal Planting Select whether calculated planting dekads Dekads manual or manually specified zonal planting input dekads are used LEAP displays Starting Calculations One or more actual rainfall files not found using normal rainfall Using normal ETO actual ETO not available LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 51 Calculations FINIRE se Total number of Water Balance Calculations pixels 18445 Calculation succeeded 7360 Missing Planting Dekad 11085 Some actual rainfall files are missing because the end of the season is not yet reached The Water Balance is therefore calculated with normal rainfall for the missing dekads The missing planting dekads are for the pixels outside Ethiopia For viewing of the output use the Water Balance section of the viewer More specific functions are described in the Viewer chapter 7 iix O Planting Dekad Cycle Length C Water Holding Capacity C Effective Rainfall Percentage O Sowing Window End Dekad Water Baap OOO T O Total Water Requiremen 2 Pre Planting Crop Coefficients C Sowing Window Start Dekad O Crop Basket gt Nor
59. ataset LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 52 Created c program files LEAP Images Water Balance Run1 2000 Basket Final Index 2000 img 5 3 Comparing data to Normals In order to compare water balance output to a reference period LEAP contains normals sometimes called averages The calculation of normals is done with the Calculate Water Balance Build compare period normals function A compare period is made for a specific dataset and is based on several years The average for these years is taken Image Base Directory Name of image base directory 3 A eas ges Input Water Balance The dataset for which to build the normals Dataset First year to take when calculating normals 1995 Last year to take when calculating normals 2006 LEAP now calculates normals for all available crops and all 20 parameters This can take quite a long time In the LEAP viewer the comparison with normal can be viewed by clicking the Compare to Normal checkbox l in fraction 2002 Maize_MeherLongCycle E 000 to 100 SRUNI 2002 Maize_MeherLongCycle_Final_Index_2002 img E 00 to 50 gt 50 to 20 20 to 5 gt 5to5 5to20 20to50 B 50 to 100 MB 100 to 1000 Missing 5 4 Calculating the Yield Reduction The yield reduction is calculated from Water Balance output combined with an empirical formula developed by Doorenbosch and Kassam The formula is 100 1 1 A B Ky 100 Where A is the Actual Evap
60. ated to the seasonal actual productions for the computation of the potential beneficiaries Their values are not necessarily identical to the production shares The selection of the assessment weights determines the type of assessment that is being conducted For example table 1 during a meher assessment in a crop area with a bimodal Meher _ 1 seasonal rainfall pattern the choice qw implies that only the meher production is taken into account The scheme reported in table 1 assumes an approach in for which during the meher assessment only the outcome of the latest meher harvest season is taken into account instead during the belg assessment which is considered as an update to the figures obtained during the previous meher assessment the performances of both crop seasons and pastoral seasons where appropriate are taken into account However different choices are possible for the expert user The assessment coefficients can be selected by manually changing the numbers in the top right column The default values for the seasonal weights provided by LEAP correspond to the woredas seasonal shares Table 1 Production areas in Ethiopia and weight parameter selection for different types of assessment Production of Meher Assessment Belg Area Woredas Assessment Agro 396 Default Default Unimodal Meher Only Agro Bimodal 176 al Default Belg amp Meher Agro Pastoral 106 g 20g 1G aaa Default Bimodal Tot 678 NOTE
61. ational agrometeorological bulletins and other LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 6 1 2 The Ethiopian experience In Ethiopia crop yields are to a large extend predicted by the amount of available water compared to water requirement One could argue that total rainfall during the season is therefore a good indicator This has proven to be too crude an indicator Drought and flooding within the same year can result in seemingly favourable total rainfall amount It has been found that a simple Water Balance Model correlates better to yields In 2006 a pilot was conducted in Ethiopia to gain experience including the design of an index Hess and Wiseman 2006 Subjects of study were the translation of the index into an underwritable insurance contract and how the index was monitored and evaluated throughout the 2006 agricultural season More information can be found here http www wtp org policies introduction background documents Ethiopia pdf Or http www irinnews org Report aspx ReportId 75865 Building from the technology and experience gained in 2006 WFP and the World Bank jointly investigated in a more comprehensive ex ante risk management strategy involving an expanded risk financing facility that moves beyond commercial insurance 1 3 LEAP a software platform to calculate weather based indexes In 2006 a new software environment for drought indexing designed specifically for the local Ethiopian context was initiated by W
62. blic domain easy to use software package for the display and analysis of satellite images maps and associated databases with an emphasis on early warning for food security WinDisp was originally developed for the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System It allows users to Display and analyze satellite images Compare two images and analyze trends in a time series of images Extract and graph trends from a number of satellite images such as during the growing season for comparison with other years Compute new images from a series of images Display tabular data in map format Build custom products combining images maps and specialized legends Write and execute batch files to automate routine and tedious tasks VY Y Y Y Y Build a customized project interface for providing users with detailed menus of available data for a country or a specific area Download from http www fao org giews english windisp windisp htm 1 7 Disclaimer LEAP SOFTWARE AND DOCUMENATION ARE PROVIDED AS IS WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NON INFRINGEMENT The World Food Programme specifically does not make any warranties or representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any such Materials The World Food Programme periodically adds changes improves or updates the Materials on this Site without notice Under no ci
63. countries A very readable overview has been written by Erin Bryla and Joanna Syroka 2007 and can be found here http www un org esa sustdev publications innovationbriefs no2 pdf 1 1 Developing weather based indexes In an insurance transaction the payout is triggered by an agreed exceedence of a certain factor index or parameter For a successful application of weather insurance developing a usable trigger index is a key element This index should have the following characteristics Gommes 2006 Tamper resistant potential beneficiaries of the insurance should not be in a position to directly or indirectly manipulate the index Y Objective once the methodology has been defined in precise enough terms the index value should be independent of the person who carries out the calculations Y Good correlation with crop yield A poor year is defined as a year in which conditions are bad enough to trigger the payment of claims to insurance subscribers Y Insensitivity to missing data the best way to circumvent the occurrence of missing spatial data is to use gridded information that is not too sensitive to individual missing stations provided sufficient data points are available and the interpolation process takes into account topography and climatic gradients Transparency the methodology has to be made available to potential subscribers of the insurance Crop insurance indices will be published regularly in n
64. d Results indicate that PHYGROW accounted for 96 of the observed variation in herbaceous forage on offer with a standard error of prediction of 161 kg ha Figure 1 Since June 2001 the LEWS project has provided dekadal and monthly forage availability outputs coupled with a 60 90 day forecasting system LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 85 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Field Measured Forage kg ha 0 0 2 r 0 96 SE 161 kg ha n 81 lean difference 15 kg ha 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 PHYGROW Simulated Forage kg ha Figure 1 Field verification of PHYGROW model The LEWS data are available in the LEAP viewer Livelihood FARE G All Woredas Weighted WASI io PSNP Wroredas Weighted WARSI G All Woredas Safety Net Beneficiaries w PSP Woredas Safety Net Beneficiaries O All WWoredas Beneticiaries Estimate Low O PSNP vroredas Beneficiaries Estimate Low O AllWWoredas Beneficiaries Estimate Mid O PSNP vroredas Beneficiaries Estimate Mid gt All Woredas Beneficiaries Estimate High w PSP Woredas Beneficiaries Estimate High O All WWoredas Cost Estimate Low O PSNP vroredas Cost Estimate Low gt AllWWworedas Cost Estimate Mid O PSNP vroredas Cost Estimate Mid G All vvoredas Cast Estimate High w PSNP Woredas Cost Estimate High Year 2 Ageland Rangeland Production gt Deviation Rangeland Production i Display A Cancel N
65. der FROH 26 g2 fd 164 130 156 182 288 234 254 TO 25 51 f 103 129 155 181 2HF Pas Be 253 255 RED 255 191 128 64 21 48 of 128 255 GREEN 255 22d 192 166 128 107 B0 1 255 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia LUE LEGEND 21 48 g7 128 255 Page 96 13 Recent changes to LEAP 13 1A new version of LEAP can now be loaded from within LEAP itself Go to the Help About menu item Documentation PDF LEAP Tutorial LEAP workshop November 2010 LEAP Workshop April 2011 Powerpoint Presentation Get the newest version visual Menu Get more information on Water Balance Calculations AMS Start Screen Explore LEAF directory LEAP HE4 Interface xls InterFace Guidelines You see WEP LEAP for Ethiopia iy United Nations kaha LEAP Version 2 42 Tuesday May 3 2071 Copyright WFP Please do not distribute without the consent of WFP and the World Bank Created by Peter Hoefsloot Consultant to World Bank FAQ and WFP Using ideas by Ulich Hess WFP Willian Wiseman World Bank Joanna Syroka WFP and World Bank Sandro Calmanti ENEA Seonreon Im FP Rome and Ethiopial Elliot Yhurumuku MFP Ethiopia Mathewos Hunde MFF Ethiopia Rene Gommes F amp O Rome Teshome Erkineh DRMFS5S Ethiopia Muktar Reshid DAMFSS Ethiopia Loraine Coulter FEG and LIL Water Balance Calculations based on FAO water Balance Model Get latest LEAP executable Pr
66. e 103
67. e Water Balance Parameter export from LEAP and the subscript W indicates that the computation is done with different values for each woreda q is the assessment weight a value ranging from O to 1 to be associated to each season in the combined WRSI and measures to which extent the past ae Belg dier crop season will contribute to the assessment By adjusting w and q the user can define a drought index that takes into account the outcome of different crop pastoral Bel seasons e g gy qj 0 8 for a combined assessment in meher belg production area and gi 0 for an assessment of the belg season q 0 2 and Notice again that in Equation 3 when the drought index combines the outcome of different seasons WRSI 3 refers to the belg season that follows the selected WRSI if WRSI is computed for the year Y WRSI must be computed for the year Y 1 When defining the combined WRSI the assessment weights q must be defined in such a way that Belg Meher Pastoral __ Iw taw dw l In the case of pastoral areas the regional WRSI RWRSI in Equation 1 corresponds to the aggregated rangeland index Figure 1 The log model relation between RWRSI and the number of beneficiaries 1000000 7 H a H H H e H H H H H H H H e H j H 900000 SERRA RRR RRR RRR ERE SERRE AEEA CEINE OENE SEPEEEENS SRR RRR EERE EERE REE R EERE R I ERR EERE EERE RRR eR ERS e H H H e H H e H H H H H H H of H H H H oe H
68. e dekadal_clim bin 19950113 points to an ARC rainfall file for January 13 1995 Obviously these daily rainfall estimates have to be converted to dekadal data See further down It seems that the archive is posted on the internet just once a year This means that all files for 2007 are downloadable in early 2008 For questions or comments contact Tim Love noaa gov or 301 763 8000 ext 7549 New data can be downloaded from the FTP server If the menu item Data Rainfall Import ARC Rainfall Get new data is clicked a browser window pointing to the ARC archive will open f gt FTP directory fews ARC at ftp cpc ncep noaa goy Windows Internet Exy le Ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa govife v 4 X Live Search File Edit View Favorites Tools Help ky at Pir je ich 4 A Maps X ww rte directory Fews ARC fp Home G Feeds J d h Print FTP directory fews ARC at ftp cpc ncep noaa gov To view this FTP site in Windows Explorer click Page and then click Open FTP Site in Windows Explorer Up to higher level directory 04 21 2006 12 00AM Directory DEKADAL MEAN 01 22 2007 12 00AM 3 417 README clim txt 03 21 2006 12 00AM 516 853 WS FIP LOG 02 16 2007 12 00AM 331 823 daily clim bin 19950107 qz 02 16 2007 12 00AM 284 055 daily clim bin 19950108 gqz 02 16 2007 12 00AM 300 015 daily clim bin 19950109 qz 02 16 2007 12 00AM 303 192 daily clim bin 19950110 02 16 2007 12 00AM 306 963 dail
69. e for calculating basket 2000 yield reduction Last year to take for calculating basket yield 2000 reduction The settings above create the following image Created c program files LEAP Images Yield Runl 2000 Basket Yield Reduction 2000 img 5 6 Calculating the Moisture Index This index is widely used in agrometeorology It is a simple measure of the humidity of the season with the formula rainfall ETO This is done with the Calculate Moisture Index function The name of the dataset in Output Dataset name which the Moisture Index will be stored First year of calculation 2006 Last year of calculation 2006 The function calculates Dekadal and Monthly Moisture Indexes The function requires actual data both ETO and Rainfall and is based on the dataset priority settings LEAP displays the status messages Creating dekadal Moisture Index LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 54 Required ETO Input file not round tor 2006 1 I 4 Created c program files LEAP Images Moisture Index Run1 2006 Dekadal Moisture Indez 2006 16 14 emg Created c program files LEAP Images Moisture Index Run1 2006 Dekadal Moisture Index 2006 6 2 img Created c program files LEAP Images Moisture Index Run1 2006 Dekadal Moisture Index 2006 6 3 img Creating monthly Moisture Index Created c program files LEAP Images Moisture Index Run1 2006 Monthly Moisture Index 20060 6 img LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 55 6 The needs com
70. e numbers of intermediate steps for more parameters may result in long computation time Figure 4 Step 2 input panel in the Needs module The log model parameters setup f Specify Settings D Tools LEAP NeedsProjects Test Amhara npf Maximum Historical Population in Need of Assistance Nr Simulate between two values range COn Amhara North Gondar Dabat Min 700000 kanri Amhara North Gondar Debark Max fsoo000 1 AS Amhara North Gondar Wegera E Amhara North Shewa R3 Antsokiya Amhara North Shewa R3 Eferatana Amhara North Shewa R3 Gishe Rabe Simulate between two values range ys E Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Gera Min 0 Number of Steps Hint from Historical Data E Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Keyz 1 54 300 Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Lalo Max 100000 E 3 E Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Mam Minimum Historical Population in Need of Assistance N0 Maximum Historical Regional WRSI for the Target Area Wm Simulate between two values range Min 80 Max 99 Minumum Historical Regional WRSI for the Target Area W0 Number of Steps Hint from Historical Data 1 87 Simulate between two values range Min 30 Max 35 Regional WRSI Failure Level F Number of Steps Hint from Historical Data ji 56 Simulate between two values range Min 128 Max 29 Number of Steps Hint from Historical Data 1 53 First year 2000 Last year 2010 Refres
71. en Project menu item A window opens in which to enter the name for the new project io Belg Meher Rangeland After pressing Open the current settings are overwritten with settings in the previously saved project Some Project 2 10 3 Saving the current settings While working with LEAP one might want to save the current settings This is done through the function Project Save Settings to Project In the following window the project to which the settings are saved has to be selected LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 20 Save current settings to Project oj x Rangeland Some Project 2 10 4 Deleting a project Deleting a project is done through the Project Delete Project function lox Rangeland Some Project Delete After pressing Delete the Project Some Project is removed The current project cannot be deleted If the current project has to be deleted first open another project with the Project Open Project function LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 21 3 Working with meteorological data 3 1 Rainfall Due to its variety in time ands space rainfall is the most important parameter in the calculation of water balances LEAP currently has a number of different rainfall datasets on board all of which can be updated and refreshed RFE1 RFE2 ARC and TAMSAT are currently available as images or grids in various formats NMA rainfall comes as sta
72. en the map will be displayed in black and white 6 Wealth Breakdown amp Assets Assets per household Land owned ha WG Average of All LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 83 9 4 Some extra functions e One can zoom into a region with this box e The user can export the data by livelihood zone to Excel use the Aggregate to Excel button B9 Eile Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help OBE RSBIEaRIVGBls4 an JI f LZCODE e Export to a shape file for use in ArcView ArcGIS press Export to GIS and REGION Afar Amhara Oromiya SNNPR Oromiya Oramiya Oromiya SNNPR Oromiya Somali Afar Tigray SNNPR Oromiya Tigray Afar Oromiya Oramiya Afar Amhara Tigray LZN VALUE ono Fe wh HO On N wm Ne nm OF WN Om WN hd specify a name for the new shape file Export to shape file image for GIS oj x Output file SHP CrdelphiiLEAPiheaimapsimy map shp a Jf OK X Cancel LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 84 10 Additional Data available in LEAP 10 1 Livestock Early Warning System Forage Maps The Livestock Early Warning System LEWS project has been developing a monitoring system to assess emerging trends in forage supply and animal condition on rangelands in Ethiopia Djibouti Somaliland Kenya Uganda and Tanzania Spatial sampling frames are established using climatic clustering techniques overlain with thematic layers for livestock and
73. ents that make up the local economy crops including cash crops livestock labor remittances and enables the impact of a hazard on each component to be evaluated when combined with appropriately collected monitoring data collected either monthly or seasonally The Atlas of Ethiopian Livelihoods draws on data assembled by the LIU Data that makes it possible to piece together a comprehensive and holistic picture of how rural households in Ethiopia make their living and how they get by from year to year This atlas has resulted in a unique set of detailed information about household economic operations The original intent of this campaign was to provide a basis for improved national early warning the premise being that it is possible to better predict the variable localized impacts of drought market shocks and other transient hazards on households economic well being if we first understand the extent to which households in different areas of the country depend upon their own production local and regional markets and informal sources of income The database has the following characteristics O 853 different parameters 196 826 single data items Converted from MS Excel to MS Access for easy access to the data in LEAP The database is open for other uses Oood dad Possible future versions of the atlas can be imported in LEAP with a special function 1 5 Getting the software and more information The LEAP software is free The latest ver
74. er for the first time the data selection screen will be presented Parameter selection N i Oj x The Livelihoods Integration Unit Database Parameter Filter Apply Parameters 853 Wealth Group 6 Wealth Breakdown amp Assets Assets per household Land owned ha gt Average of All O Actual Rainfall O Normal Rainfall Potential Evapotranspiration tJ Crop and Soil O Planting Dekad O Cycle Length O Water Holding Capacity Pre Planting Crop Coefficients Effective Rainfall Percentage Sowing Window Start Dekad O Sowing Window End Dekad O Crop Basket O Planting Dekad Zonal Water Balance O Percentage Available Data O Total Water Requirement O Final Index WRSI O Normal Index f Display Cancel Within the red boxes the main data types can be found At the moment LEAP supports 7 main data types besides the LIU database Some of these are input data such as rainfall others are output data for example Water Balance Data A corner stone of LEAP is the possibility to use multiple datasets per main data type The datasets belonging to the main data types can be found in the BE boxes The main data types contain the actual parameters or indices in the feen boxes One of these parameters has to be selected Selecting one of the images will de select the previously selected one The purple box contains the specifications time and crop of the image to view Not all options
75. erisiaiebiniunceehdetcnaneossaatiade 51 5 2 Calculating a basket W RSD xceicscasicascecs avian ssereicatdedbenwasdugsaane cian a 52 5 9 COmparing datato Normals eseese a were oeneedoladaneese 53 54 Calculating the Yield Reductions ra a ail ecoiicet aneelee 53 Da IB askel 1 EREC ON Aaa tate een ced aerate a hed eeabieeies 54 5 6 Calculating the Moisture Qe ktere aena tes canoe E O 54 6 The needs computation Module Sissi ai E aa edgaens 56 ON NS 1G mod Finer a E a 56 OZ Phe Needs MOUS ersi E E icons 58 OS Selecta tase aede E a E tact iweeteeietaatiweelt 58 64 Define Needs Analysis Set p is swscdesdasco2crensiesatencsacaunsasiedouaadinn aeveasindsvanctactanteredausadind se 59 GA Assessment Welo NiS a meen rected asic a eet eedateuametentuendiacy 59 O42 LOs modelparameters E 60 6 4 3 Few recommendation for parameter selection ccccccccsseeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 62 6 9 NCGdS COMPpULANOM renn a a uteteduruseen aes 63 GIG C DECKS eraa E massed ae eseeat tans aaa 64 7 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI in LEAP cecccceceeeeeeees 66 amp Phe LEAP nage Vie Wee es asscxtssacodevinntsaceiiedcaciedaasexandanede e a a ped exeieentes 68 Sal weleChine The AMaAGS IO VIEW iere e 68 S2 They ewer Mia S Chee Ms sie tcetcctoie eaiecna a laveanecaclaeten domnecedlenencie loveased Miaeeag omeecidient 68 Se CIE CUIMS AN OL MER TASS e secrete ee hen hese vette ances cance tener unsmnannseceee 69 S22 Phe Sei cere a nT
76. ers to Excel Yield Reduction to Excel Options Updating LEAP data Dataset Priority Crops in Basket Download New Data Documentation Documentation PDF Go to LEAP page on Internet Calculating normals For Water Balance Input For Viewer Yisualisations 2 10 Projects 5 x Projects are a way to keep LEAP settings together in a convenient way Projects are not implemented in the images database The images database is shared among projects In projects the following information is saved Crops Baskets Dataset Priority All settings in the selection menus that precede the LEAP functions Selected maps and zooming windows The project options can be found in the Project menu item the first item LEAP ersion 7 10 Saturda Project Data Calculate View New Project Open Project Save Settings to Project Delete Project LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 19 2 10 1 Starting a new project Whenever the current state of LEAP has to be saved a new project can be created This 1s done through the Project New Project menu item A window opens in which to enter the name for the new project New Project x Mame Some Project Cancel After pressing OK the current settings are saved in the project with the name Some Project 2 10 2 Opening an existing project Opening a previously saved project can be done through the Project Op
77. ess Get latest LEAP executable LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 97 x P Downloading 4 maybe not so stable prerelease is irreversible and s nok recommended in a production environment re you sure you want to install a version with new undocumented and untested Functionality Press YES when you see the warning message above A new LEAP version is loaded directly from the internet and installed properly About x WFF LEAP for Ethiopia Cy United Nations AR Hck tah LEAP Version 2 42 aa Tuesday May 3 2011 Copyright WFP Please do not distribute without the consent of WEP and the World Bank Created by Peter Hoefsloot Consultant to World Bank FAQ and WFP Downloading LEAP_prerelease 1 0 ME of 1 8 MB Eliot Vhurumuku WFP Ethiopia Mathewos Hunde WFP Ethiopia Rene Gommes FA0 Rome Teshome Erkine h DRMFSS Ethiopia Muktar Reshid DAMFSS Ethiopia Loraine Coulter FEG and LIL Water Balance Calculations based on FAO Water Balance Model OF Get latest LEAP executable LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 98 13 2 Working with cumulative rainfall Cumulatives can now be made are made with the viewer As a first step go to the viewer and display a normal rainfall image does not matter which one 6 Wealth Breakdown amp Assets Assets per household Land owned ha Now please notice the new Cumulative button on the right side LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 99
78. ew data can be downloaded with the LEAP function Data Rangeland Get new Texas AES data 10 2 NDVI jlkbhabdkhbc LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 86 11 Exporting LEAP data to other software LEAP uses Excel is the gateway to other software packages 11 1 Export Rainfall to Excel A function has been developed to export rainfall to Excel in a bulk fashion For a single image this can be done through the viewer see previous chapter The bulk function is called with the Export Export Rainfall to Excel parameter Aggregation These are the boundaries used for the boundaries aggregation c Wfp Bna zone bna These settings will use the dataset priority settings and produce the following sheet EJ Microsoft Excel Sheet1 E loj x Bt File Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Type a question for help F X EErEE EE E EER B ia a a gy Fi i Reply with Changes End Review EB Al h Mame Se Bea ee eee ee eee Name 200 2002 1 2 2002_1_3 2002_2 1 2002 2 2 2002 2 3 2002 3 1 2002_3 Cina SEDA SED NMA SED NMA SED NMA SED NMA SED NMA SED NMA SI 3 A ZONE l U U U U U 21 4 A FONE 21 20 0 0 0 0 13 5 JA ZONES 11 0 0 0 0 a1 E A ZONE4 G1 34 0 0 U 0 21 7 ADDIS AB 02 14 U U 43 U 42 8 AFDER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a AGE AVA U 11 U U 3 10 ALABA S of 13 U U 41 0 fa 11 AMARO 11 16 U U fi U 51 12 ARSI 44 4 0 0 g 0 45 13 ASOSA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 BALE 56 i 0 0 0 29 15 BASKETO 29 44 U U g G 133 BEN
79. fp sinagessrainsAFe 22008A ain 2008 5 1 img Information JET Done 1 One image has been downloaded From the file name one can deduct that this is the RFE2 rainfall estimate for the first dekad of May 2008 The file will be placed in the right directory automatically In case of download of a large amount of images the download process can be stopped by pressing STOP 2 9 The Visual Menu In version 1 2 the visual menu has been introduced This menu groups the functions in a visual way The functions can be used directly from this menu by pressing the buttons in the graph See a screen dump of the visual menu below LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 18 Menu Rainfall Water Balance 1 Crop 1 Season Aggregate ARSI by Crop Basket 1 Crop More Seasons Build WB output Compare Period All Crops More Seasons RFE1 NMA Rainfall From Rainfall Spreadsheet RFE2 NMA Rainfall From ETO Spreadsheet ARC Rainfall Estimates Using SEDI TAMSAT Rainfall Source Comparison Graph Yield Reduction i 1 Crop 1 Season All Crops More Seasons Potential evapotranspiration FAO Average ETO NMA Actual ETO 1 Crop More Seasons Aggregate by Crop Basket Moisture Index CALCULATE Base Crops Zonal Settings in Spreadsheet Export Crop Coefficients Import Zonal Settings Rainfall to Excel Crop Basket VYRSI to Excel Calculate Planting Dekads Crop data Wiater Balance Paramet
80. h Hints The Log Model parameters to be selected are No Needs in case of optimal rainfall chronic food insecure Nr Population at risk Wo Lowest observed value of RWRSI Wu Optimal RWRSI e g Wy 100 F Systemic failure level Let us discuss each of these parameters in more detail No No can be interpreted as the number of beneficiaries in the selected area after a season of optimal rain It may be interpreted as the number of chronic food insecure whose condition does not depend directly on the outcome of a single crop season If specific information 1s available this number may include the population affected by other risk factors different than rainfall LEAP provides a hint for this parameter as the sum of the minimum number of beneficiaries recorded in the target area Nr Nr corresponds to the maximum number of beneficiaries in the case of severest drought It can be interpreted as the entire population at risk in a target area Ideally this parameter is the result of field assessment during which a complete risk profiling is conducted Np LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 61 would reflect the population with no access to sufficient food in the case of drought LEAP provides a hint for this parameter as the sum of the maximum historical beneficiaries recorded in the target area In the absence of detailed field information this choice of Np is connected to the choice of the drought parameter Wo as the lowest hi
81. h the function Data Crops View Change Crop coefficients LEAP works with the Default set of crop coefficients Crop coefficients xj Crop X Fraction of Cycle KCr me Rangeland Default 0 1 CS ee ee ee ee ee ee ee eee enn 0 2 1 1 3 4 nn rnin rr tr rrr rr nn rt rr rnn m r Te ei a aC E e e A EE OE LOE e a A a Initial ae 0 4 1 1 Bog FSSC SEA O SO ICR POCO Ho SEE aE OAH 0 5 1 D 08 4 1 F 3 7 7 7P 1 AMM 0 6 1 8 07 ae Nee a ee eee ee ee ee Vegetative Sle eee eee es eee ee eee 07 1 O06 1 T T 1 Flowering Oy ce he nee en ener eee eG 08 1 0 4 4 4 t b ante rena Ja 1 a SRG SEAS Sd ISS NORE SS E EP 0 2 4 Se ee Satellite deleted aa tt Sire Save changes H alalailaas ir ne Ue KO C eae as ae 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 05 06 0 7 08 0 9 1 Percentage of cycle length 4 3 3 Step 3 Add the crop to the basket crop list Activate the menu item Options Basket Crops in Basket Press Manage crops and add the crop to the list LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 46 Fs alicrops o Barley_Belg Barley_Meher Chick Peas_Belg Chick Peas_Meher Field Pea_Belg Field Pea_Meher Finger Millet_Belg Finger Millet_MeherLongCycle Finger Millet_MeherShortCycle Haricot Bean_Belg Haricot Bean_Meher Horse Bean_Belg Horse Bean_Meher Lentils_
82. he external stress drought strengthens 6 2 The Needs module The Needs menu drives the expert LEAP user through the computation of the potential beneficiary number needs The computation is based on a log model scheme that has been tested and validated using historical records of DRMESS beneficiaries Figure 2 The Needs menu a LEAP Version 2 60 Monday February 20 2012 Application in C Program Files x86 LEAP fel Project Data Calculate View Export Options Needs Products Tools Help Step 1 Select Target Area Proje Step 2 Log Model Setup iar ates Step 3 Compute Needs Maize_Meher Sorghurn_MMehe Extract WRSI by Woreda Teff_ Meher aa a The Federal ant of Ethiopia Wheat_Meher View Change Base Data FP Barley Meher So 2 wWfp org 6 3 Select a target area The first step in the needs computation is the selection of a list of woredas All the user s choices are saved in an npf file that is selected by the user To start the area selection the user will e Enter the panel by clicking Needs gt Step 1 Select Target Area e Create a New Needs Analysis file and choose a name There are two different methods to select the area of interest e Choose the woredas by name by checking the boxes in the list to the right e Choose the woredas by clicking on the map The user can switch among different map based selection methods menu on the top left and choose all woredas within a Zone or a Region
83. hen written into Excel LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 90 12 Technical details of LEAP 12 1 The image format use by LEAP LEAP uses images at the IDA Image Display and Analysis format The IDA image file consists of a 512 byte image header followed by unblocked image data 1 byte per pixel beginning at the top left of the image and processing row by row This means that the size of an IDA image in bytes can be expressed as 512 lines pixels The Ethiopian images have the following main characteristics Image Information i x General Title Livelihood image Image Type Calculated Close Edit Wi Projection Platte Carre bi Height pixels 119 Width pixels 165 Pixel value calculation Lowest passiblel 0 Highest possible 137632 0 Missing value 254 Number of Decimal 544 0000000 o o0000000 Projection detail Lat Center Jan osoooo29 Long Center 20 0500000 Center 527 000000 Y Center 249 000000 Dx 0 100000001 Bij o 10000000 Faralleli 0 o00000000 Parallel2 0 000000000 This image is 119 lines high and 155 pixels wide and has an image size will have an image size of 18957 bytes In this case the pixel size is 0 1 0 1 degrees In Ethiopia this is roughly 10 by 10 kilometers slope Intercept The following is the TURBO PASCAL record type description for the image header record Chars and bytes are byte integers are 2 bytes and reals are 6 bytes
84. higher Windows 98 Windows Me Windows NT 4 0 with Service Pack 6 Operating System installed Windows 2000 Windows XP or Windows Server 2003 Privileges Administrative privileges on the system Microsoft Office Without MS Excel many LEAP functions do not Office software Work 2 2 Installing the program After downloading the program from the above mentioned link it can be installed ba Double click LEAP _Install exe When an old version of LEAP or LPCI is found on the system it should be removed first Use the Remove option in the installation window The image database could be preserved by manually copying it to another place on the hard disk Usually the image database is found in the C program files leap images directory The installation program will display the following screen LEAP InstallShield Wizard i Welcome Modify repair or remove the program Welcome to the LEAP Setup Maintenance program This program lets you modify the current installation Click one of the options below C Modify Select new program features to add or select currently installed features to remove Repair SF Reinstall all program features installed by the previous setup goegecesessesesessseg Seesessesesessee ray D T a lt o a 2 aL D o T 2 S T bad Cancel Then re start the installation program After a welcome message the following screen is displayed LEAP version 2 61 for
85. ies simply the computation done by LEAP on the basis on the area and log model parameter selection provided in the previous steps Step 3 requires simply the selection of an existing npf file Figure 5 Selecting npf file for Step 3 in the Needs module f Open a Needs Project File Specify Existing Needs Project File C Program Files x86 LEAP DatabaseVfar npf Jf OK X Cancel The parameter setup contained in the selected npf file 1s used to perform the needs computation which is tabulated to be exported in Excel and perform additional analysis It is important to remind that in step 2 the user selects an interval of possible values for each of log model parameters and the corresponding number of intermediate steps to be considered In the computation of the final output number of beneficiaries LEAP consideres all possible combinations of the selected parameters and provides an output for each combination Therefore several outputs are provided by LEAP whose number depends on the number of intermediate steps selected for each parameter There are 5 parameters to be selected in the log model If 3 intermediate steps are selected in each of the parameters interval note the 3 step correspond to the selected minimum and maximum and to the corresponding averge the total number of different estimates of the potentialbeneficiaries will be 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 243 Each row of the output table Figure contains the log model parameter setup
86. ilable for certain areas In that case the map display a beige colour for livelihood zones without a value 337 Crops Months of planting amp harvesting by crop belg barley length of cycle mo 3 months 3 5 months 4 months LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 80 9 2 Looking for a parameter It is often difficult to find a parameter in a list of 853 Therefore LEAP contains a function to limit the list of parameters Some examples of the use of the parameter filter If the user puts 337 in the parameter filter and subsequently presses Apply then the list box is limited to parameters containing the text string 337 In this case only 1 parameter Parameter selection 5 x The Livelihoods Integration Unit Database Pgtameters 1 with te G Months of plat Pig amp harvesting by crop belg barley length of cycle mo Rainfall i Achal Dainfall i Karmal Dainfall Say the user puts camel in the parameter filter and subsequently presses Apply then the list box is limited to parameters containing the text camel In this case the list is limted to 34 parameters containing the word camel Parameters 34 with text camel Wealth Group in 0l Wealth Breakdown amp Assets Assets per household Livestock camels oa Average of All k 20 Wealth Breakdown amp Assets Assets per household Livestock pack camels taint 421 Livestock Prod amp Sales Livestock
87. ion TAMSAT filenames follow the old 8 3 character convention in order to maintain compatibility with older software e g Ida and systems many TAMSAT programs can be run on DOS machines A file s name describes the type of data contained therein plus the date that the data corresponds to TAMSAT filenames have the following structure RRPPGYMD ext where RR Region PP Parameter G Geography YMD Date RR is a two character region code denoting the area that the data covers In the case of Ethiopia this is AF PP First letter is the parameter initial which defines the data type the second letter is a qualifying character Rainfall estimates show RT Rainfall estimate using Tamsat methodology G is the Geography character referring to the projection of image map data In this case the images come with the code L which means Lat Long projection YMD is the date YearMonthDekad Y is the year a represents 1987 b represents 1988 and so on i is 1995 and n is 2000 Mis the month 1 gt 9 represent Jan gt Sept and a gt c represent Oct Dec D is the dekad For dekadal data x y and z represent the first second and third dekads of the month respectively A single file can be imported into LEAP with the Data Rainfall Import TAMSAT Rainfall File function lapar re Name of the TAMSAT file o oan img files LEA
88. is done by adding a new line at the bottom and giving the crop a unique cropno number Ignored by LEAP Database crops 1M Teff 2 L Barley 3 T Wheat 4 B Maize 5 yy Sorghum B S Finger Millet Chick Peas Field Pea Haricot Bean 10 11 12 13 Horse Bean Fotatos Sweet Potatos Loi dwi ee ee ee I o a mM Oo ff fe These settings determine the water balance calculation in case of water excess In this case whenever the excess amounts to 100 mm or more 3 points are deducted from the Cropvame De fThresho 0 2 aAa Oo AAAA 8 OAA WRSI index d Reduce yalue 3 DI Gi d d ad a a d i d z Ky according to Doorenbosch and Kassam to calculate yield reduction loj x 100 1 14999997615614 100 1 14599997615614 100 1 14999997615814 100 1 25 100 0 8999999761 58142 100 1 14599997615614 100 1 14999997615614 100 1 14599957615614 100 1 14599997615614 100 1 14999997615614 100 1 14999997615814 100 1 100000023641 6 100 1 100000023641 56 z To word To Excel For every crop a set of crop coefficients is defined with the Data Crops View Change Crop coefficients function The crop coefficients can be viewed and changed with the window below The crop coefficients form the heart of the water consumption calculation in a water balance LEAP uses the default sets of coefficients LEAP version 2 6
89. is usually a good approximation of farmers behaviour LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 48 Settings ue Hee The base directory for the image database c program files LEAP Images Directory Daeetaaae The name of the input dataset usually Waal zonal Preyer The first year for which to calculate the 2007 planting dekad Payen tone The last year for which to calculate the 2007 planting dekad Threshold urs Rainfall freehold Gum torbe tirstdekd 2 dekad rer second anrai heshin oheista 190 LEAP might complain that certain rainfall images are missing but will nevertheless try to calculate planting dekads The program displays Created c program files LEAP Images Crop Zonal 2007 Maize MeherLongCycle Planting Dekad 2007 img Planting dekads calculated with this rule may be overridden by manual zonal planting dekads during water balance calculations 4 5 Specifying planting dates manually The procedure outlined in the previous paragraph is the default way for calculating planting dekads However in some circumstances it is useful to specify planting dekads manually In LEAP this is done by Zone and outlined in paragraph 4 2 4 6 Viewing zonal images The LEAP viewer can display all parameters mentioned above In the parameter selection look for the Crop and Soil Parameters For more information view Chapter 7 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 49 Parameter selection ZONAL Rangeland GU LEA
90. ist is displayed with the Tools Currently defined Zones function Addis Ababa Region 14 Afar Zone 1 Afar Zone 2 Tigray North Western Tigray Southern Tigray Western In total 76 zones in the boundary file zone bna Zone HARERI HARERI in zone bna is too small no pixels inside This function is helpful when naming mismatches occur as Zones in the sheets are recognized by name when importing into LEAP LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 4 2 2 Editing zonal data The function Data Crops View Change Crop Data in Zone Spreadsheet gives access to the current Excel spreadsheet file containing the Zonal data although this file can be opened through the Excel open menu as well In the spreadsheet the following 8 parameters are stored per Ethiopian Zone Sowing Window Start Dekad Sowing Window End Dekad These first two parameters form a window within which LEAP will look for a planting dekad during the planting dekad calculation see next paragraph LGP Length of Growing Period or Crop Cycle length This determines the length of the cycle of the crop in dekads As an example 13 denotes 13 dekads which is the equivalent of 130 days Crop Basket This percentage determines the relative weight of each crop in the basket The LEAP user has to ensure that these percentages add up to 100 within a basket In the example file Meher and Belg crops are not mixed in a basket adding up to 2
91. ital byte values in the images to specific colors when displaying an image and for assigning colors to ranges of data in a map Text describing each color can be included and will be displayed along with the legend if the legend is shown A color table contains six tab delimited fields The first line describes the fields FROM and TO are the range of image values to be assigned to a color or data ranges for a map For an image these values must be in the range of 0 255 and correspond to the actual digital counts not the derived values such as NDVI The values should not overlap between colors Also the FROM value in a color should be one greater than the TO value in the previous color RED GREEN and BLUE are the intensities of the respective primary colors in the range of 0 255 LEGEND 1s an optional text field that will be displayed along side the colors in the legend The Color Table Editor can be used to easily create and edit color tables Two types of color tables exist 1 Fixed values ranges The ranges applied are absolute An example FROM TO RED GREEN BLUE AFROH ATO a 25 255 255 25 26 51 191 22d 25 54 52 i 128 192 cp fa fa 183 64 168 r 6a 1684 129 128 8 90 130 253 21 18 21 98 188 254 255 255 255 255 186 180668 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 95 2 Byte value ranges where uncoded the byte values in the image 0 255 determine the colors Notice the absence of the words AFROM and ATO in the hea
92. m in the Parameter selection of the viewer is reserved for displaying maps of the LIU database To view a map simply select a parameter and the accompanying wealth group and press Display ioi The Livelihoods Integration Unit Database Parameter Filter Apply F Parameters 853 wealth Group 6 Wealth Breakdown amp Assets Assets per household Land owned ha Average of All Rainfall RFE2 Actual Rainfall O Normal Rainfall F amp O_SEDI Dekad 2 af Display X Cancel The data are displayed in the familiar LEAP viewer The regional boundaries are denoted by a heavy black line The boundaries of the livelihood zones are in light gray LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 79 alld Mat fantom Latte Select Panemeter to View a ka AR gt B By moving around the map with a mouse the values are visible at the right side of window Image Values Value 1 8 hectare Longitude 41 58 Latitude 7 58 Livelihood one BRA In this case the title displays 6 Wealth Breakdown amp Assets Assets per household Land owned ha WG Average of All The parameter displays the amount of land owned in hectares for the wealth average group In some areas the values are high North West Amhara and Tigray In some areas households do not own land especially the agropastoral areas In the map above a value is available for every livelihood zone in Ethiopia Sometimes however values are un ava
93. mal Index Foe Gn occa qnadace A T a E E E 2 Last Index based on Actual Data O Water Excess Veqetative Phase C Water Excess Ripening Phase 2 Water Deficit Vegetative Phase i Water Excess Initial Phase O Water Excess Flowering Phase O Water Deficit Initial Phase O Water Deficit Flowering Phase O Water Deficit Ripening Phase O Actual Evapotranspiration Initial Phase gt Actual Evapotranspiration Vegetative Phase Actual Evapotranspiration Flowering Phase O Actual Evapotranspiration Ripening Phase O Total Water Excess otal Water Deficit et Final Index O Total Actual Evapotranspiratig RUNI Crop Maize_MeherLongCycle Yield O Yield Reduction O Basket rield Reduction Dekad 1 w Display 3E Cancel Month January 5 2 Calculating a basket WRSI As farmers usually grow a basket of crops a generalized WRSI can be calculated that is not crop specific For that purpose the Calculate Water Balance Aggregate Final Index by Crop Basket has been created The basket can be calculated for multiple years with the following settings Image Base Directory Name of image base directory c program files LEAP Images basket WRSI will be placed in this Runl dataset as well First year of calculation 2000 Last year of calculation 2000 LEAP will present the current basket and display the following status message Input Water Balance Input water balance dataset The D
94. me of the dataset to write ARC name the image to The name of the reference image determining the size of the output c program files LEAP Images ref img image Reference image Importing multiple ARC data files is done through the menu item Data Rainfall Import ARC Rainfall Directory function The following settings apply Setting Input The name of the directory where _ the daily ARC files can be found GARFE ARC Image Base l Image base directory c program files LEAP Images Dataset The name of the dataset to write ARC name the image to The name of the reference image determining the size of the output c program files LEAP Images ref img image Reference image 3 1 4 The TAMSAT rainfall archive TAMSAT means Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellitedata and has been created by the University of Reading in th UK The basic algorithm is Calculate no of hours colder than temperature threshold Tt gt This is Cold Cloud Duration CCD LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 26 Assume rain a0 al CCD a0 al Ttare calibrated v local gauges Separate calibration for each month and Zone based on historical data YYYY Dekadal estimates from 1990 present Unfortunately this archive is not updated on the internet New data can be requested from Dr David Grimes swsgrime met rdg ac uk In order to provide descriptive filenames TAMSAT use a standard file naming convent
95. mia Borena 20 SNNPR Burji Special el Tigray Central 22 SNNPR Dawro 2A Somali Degehabur 24 SNNPR Derashe Special 25 Dire Dawa Dire Dawa 26 Amhara East Gojam 27 Oromia East Harerge 28 Oromia East Shewa 29 Oromia East Wellega 30 Tigray Eastern 31 Somali Fik LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 43 The data columns C D E can be edited Crops can be added by adding a column at the end while keeping the sheet structure as it is For a successful import of these data into LEAP the user should be aware that The names of the Zones in Column B should match the name of the polygon in the boundary file _zones Ist in the BNA directory Unrecognized names are ignored and will leave a white spot on the map The names of the crops row 2 can be chosen freely as long as the first part of the name before the underscore is defined as a crop in LEAP see previous paragraph After editing the sheet it will have to be imported into LEAP with the Data Crops Import Crop Data from Zone Spreadsheet function Only crops put into the basket are imported Crop basket click here toa change Maize B elg a Therefore in case all crops have been edited include all crops in the basket to ensure that all crops are imported Since LEAP 2 30 it is possible to specify two Excel files congaing the crop data The second file serves as a backup for the first In other words sho
96. mm Station Name optional se Sput ase Dataset to which the output will be written NMA SEDI Number of pixels extracted per station Distance in km between gridlines Maximum interpolation radius Read more about these options in SEDI document in km Examples in next column are usually quite nearest stations Maximum number of nearest stations Power Overwrite existin ee 8 Whether to overwrite the existing images images 3 1 7 Comparing the quality of images in datasets satisfactorily Minimum number of An interesting question is which dataset is the best as a basis for the calculations This is difficult to judge and might differ from dekad to dekad There is some help available LEAP contains a simple tool to compare rainfall datasets A scattergram is presented with two datasets displayed on X and Y axis The tool can be accessed through the menu item Data Rainfall Data Source Comparison Graph An example is shown below LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 33 Scattergram Year month dekad Data on the X axis in this Comparing datasets case NMA 7 point data X axis lt Station Data gt 5 Rainfall 2006 July 1 Data on the Y axis a terion hipt ty __ ey case ARC data 4 lt Station Data gt Number of Pixels 81 Maximum 187 Minimum 0 Standard Deviation 51 Mean 70 ARC Some Number of Pixels 81 extracted Hra ay Statistics Standard Deviation
97. n the region as a benchmark The need estimation was multi factorial taking into account a wide range of variables such as changes in food and cash crop production and changes in cash crop and livestock prices The basic principle underlying the method is that the impact of a current hazard e g current levels of crop production and market prices is best analysed in the context of a detailed understanding of local patterns of livelihood and how different types of change will affect these Detailed analyses were completed for each livelihood zone in each Woreda and the results summed across livelihood zones to obtain a single Woreda level result LEAP exports yield reduction results as shocks into the crop pages of the livelihood baseline After calculation the results are picked up by LEAP for display and possible further analysis The Moisture Index This index is a simple Rainfall Evapotranspiration comparison that is not specific for crops It is widely used in the developing world The higher the value the less the water stress is assumed Rangeland production estimates by the Texas Rangeland production index with cooperation of Robert Kaitho of the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station TAES The following data are visible within LEAP e Rangeland Production Estimates in kg ha e Rangeland Production Deviation from Normal kg ha for the same period Some information on the methods used to estimate rangeland production can be found
98. nd Rangeland data These functions are no longer needed as one integral function has been created that takes care of all data in LEAP This function is employed through the menu item Data amp Pick up new data internet Step 1 Check for new data In networks it is often necessary to set proxy details This is due to the fact that computers cannot access internet directly but are directed through a proxy server with an IP address As an example LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 17 the Addis Ababa WFP country office uses the following settings Proxy 10 11 40 110 and Port 8080 Needless to say that this setting is different for other networks Press the Check for new files on internet function The window now displays nix 1 Check for new files on internet 2 Downoad Stop Proxy Fort Checking local files Checking files on server this may take a while depending on connection speed Comparing Information i x i 1 new Files on the server Press Download to download the files In this example the internet server has one new file After pressing OK the Download button will be active After pressing the Download button the user sees Synchonize option _ o x 1 Check for new files on internet 2 Download Stop Proxy Fort Checking local files Checking files on server this may take a while depending on connection speed Comparing Suecestully downloaded Cy
99. nd calculate ETO The second option is described in paragraph 3 2 1 The first option is explained here The structure of the spreadsheet should be as follows see also picture above Six lines of data per station b Station name in the first column A Parameters is the second column in that specific order b Data starting in the third column C Subsequently the data are imported with the Data Rainfall Import NMA Rainfall From ETO spreadsheet function The settings have to have to be set as follows Name of input NMA Rainfal ETO Name of the NMA spreadsheet file file c program files LEAP NMA June 2006 ETo xls Sheet name in Rainfall file Name of the sheet in this file LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 31 b 14 5 i 11 9 JE 62 65 56 Year The year for which the data are 2006 collected Month The month for which the data are Jae collected Name of input l c program Name of the station sheet files LEAP NM A stations xls The name of the reference image Reference image determining the size of the output image c program files _LEAP Images ref img After pressing OK The RRR row will be read for every station LEAP will report Number of stations found in c program files LEAP NMA June 2006 ETo xls 68 Stations not found in sheet c program files LEAP NMA stations xls GONDER ADWA AIRA BATI BEDELLE CHEFFA DANGLA DUBTI ENEWARI FICHE Dekadal Rainfall values saved in shee
100. ng LEAP displays Importing Sowing Window Start Dekad Created C delphi LEAP Images Crop Belg Normal Maize Belg Sowing Window Start Dekad img Importing Sowing Window End Dekad Created C delphi LEAP Images Crop Belg Normal Maize Belg Sowing Window End Dekad img Cae 4 3 How to add a crop 4 3 1 Step 1 Adding a base crop Crop names contain an underscore The text before the underscore is the name of the base crop after the underscore follows the variety name So in the case of the following names Rangeland_Gu Rangeland_Dyer the base crop is Rangeland and the variety is either Gu or Dyer The first step is to add a base crop Use the function Data Crops View Change Base Crops to add Rangeland Look at paragraph 4 1 for further details LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 45 Pi Table orase Crops rT iome eroof _______ beftireshotl Reducevanelexcessanourtty E 1M Teff 100 1 15 oO oo E 2L Barley 0 3 100 145 il 37 Wheat 0 3 100 1 45 H 4B Maize 0 3 100 1 25 i 5 Sorghum 0 3 100 0 90 p 6S Finger Millet 0 3 100 145 E 7A Chick Peas 0 3 100 145 E 8C Field Pea 0 3 100 115 E 9D Haricot Bean 0 3 100 145 E 10 E Horse Bean 0 3 100 1 15 E 11 F Lentils 0 3 100 145 E 12 G Potatos 0 3 100 110 D 13H Sweet Potatos 0 3 100 110 E 14 R Rangeland 0 3 100 110 Ei To Word To Excel SSS 4 3 2 Step 2 Adding crop coefficients Adding changing crop coefficients is done wit
101. nk it to the selection of Wo if there is ground to believe that the observed Wo lowest historical regional drought index actually corresponds to a year of extreme yield loss In this case a possible choice for F would be F a W where is a chosen threshold below Wo that would reasonably represent a complete failure level for example a 0 90 An alternative is to consider WRST 50 as an approximate level of complete yield failure and therefore assume F 50 In any case it is fundamental to explore a sufficiently large range of possible values of F in order to obtain an estimate the uncertainty of the potential beneficiaries 6 4 3 Few recommendation for parameter selection The log model formula Equation 1 poses a few constraints to the allowed values of the parameters described above Constraints on the numerical values of the parameters are indeed consistent with the assumption considered for the derivation of the log model formula LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 62 a Failure F must be significantly lower than Wo In fact in the definition of the parameter K the difference Wo F must be positive for its logarithm to be well defined logarithm is not defined for negative numbers b Wm must be an high number possibly close to 100 Notice that if the RWRSI used in the log model is higher than Wm the output will be a negative number of beneficiaries 6 5 Needs Computation The final step of the needs module impl
102. o datasets for potential evapotranspiration The FAO average normal ETO 36 images for every dekad in the year The actual ETO based on NMA data LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 36 The first type of ETO can be imported through the function Data ETO Import FAO Average PET This function is now obsolete as all images have already been imported 3 2 1 Importing and calculating NMA actual ETO Through the function Data ETO Import actual NMA ETO actual ETO data can be calculated and converted into images First of all the NMA password should be entered Enter Password x Enter password to work with WALA data OK Cancel The spreadsheet should contain a certain structure as shown in the image below EJ Microsoft Excel June 2007 xls Read Only 1 eal File Edit view loj x Window Help _ amp x SiHliaigis S i O Bir s o 4 Ay ga E Insert Format Tools Data A f amp Station pee 2A Station Date 1 42 Station name Number of stations is free LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia MAX Maximum temperature degree celcius MIN Minimum temperature degree celcius RRR Rainfall ignored in ETO calculations RH Relative Humidity WIND Wind speed in m s at 2 meters SHRS Sunshine hours Days in the month 1 31 Page 37 The settings are c program files _LEAP NMA June 2007 xls Name of input NMA Name of the Excel spreadsheet that spreadsheet 6 ETO par
103. or Ethiopia Page 24 Input Directory The name of the directory containing multiple c program files LEAP 2007 containing gz gz files as The name of the image base directory in LEAP c program files LEAP Images Dataset name The name of the dataset RFE2 E LOTE mec The name of the reference image determining c program i the size of the output image files LEAP Images ref img 3 1 3 The ARC rainfall archive This dataset is a result of a project to create a satellite estimated precipitation climatology over the Africa domain A climatology has been created and a complimentary daily rainfall estimate product is available for creation of anomalies Thus the algorithms used to create both the climatology and the daily updating climatology method rainfall estimate are similar GTS rain gauge data used in both static and daily updating climatology products is of the same source though inputs used to create GPI estimates differ slightly in source For creation of the climatological GPI 3 hourly Meteosat data was obtained directly from Eumetsat s archived data group while daily updating products use 3 hourly data pulled from NOAA s Meteosat data feed Data resolution is 0 1 by 0 1 degrees and one day s temporal domain is from 0600 GMT through 0600 GMT Spatial extent of all estimates spans 20 0W 55 0E and 40 0S 40 0N Naming convention file YYYYMMD where YYYY is 4 digit year MM is 2 digit month DD is 2 digit day So the filenam
104. or simply click on single woredas LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 58 Figure 3 Selecting target areas f Selecting Woredas D Tools LEAP NeedsProjects Test Amhara npf e a Select Target Area by Selected 48 Woredas out of 672 TN Amhara North Gondar West Belesa Woredas X LARN Amhara North Shewa R3 Angolelana Tera AP 7 Amhara North Shewa R3 Ankober ee ores v Amhara North Shewa R3 Antsokiya Amhara North Shewa R3 Assagirt Amhara North Shewa R3 Basona Worena Amhara North Shewa R3 Berehet v Amhara North Shewa R3 Eferatana Gidem Amhara North Shewa R3 Ensaro v Amhara North Shewa R3 Gishe Rabel Amhara North Shewa R3 Hagere Mariam Amhara North Shewa R3 Kewet v Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Gera Midir v Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Keya Gabriel v Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Lalo Midir v Amhara North Shewa R3 Menz Mama Midir Amhara North Shewa R3 Merahbete Amhara North Shewa R3 Mimo Weremo Amhara North Shewa R3 Minjar Shenkora Amhara North Shewa R3 Mojan Wedera Amhara North Shewa R3 Moretna Jiru Amhara North Shewa R3 Siya Debirna Wayu Amhara North Shewa R3 Tarema Ber v Amhara North Wollo Bugna v Amhara North Wollo Dawunt v Amhara North Wollo v Amhara North Wollo Save Selection v Amhara North Wollo Guba Lafto cee Renate asad gt yA v Amhara Oromiya
105. ort of RFE1 data These functions are more or less obsolete as RFEI images are no longer produced by the Climate Prediction Center and all existing images come pre installed with LEAP 3 1 1 1 Import just one file Importing a RFE1 file is done with the Data Rainfall Import RFEI Rainfall File function The basic settings are as follows LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 22 The name of the RFE input Input file gz file produced by the Climate C RFE RFEI 2000 afpfinalcal0001 1 bil gz Prediction Center Image Base The Base directory to which the image has to be written c program files LEAP Images The name of the output The name of the reference Reference image image determined pixel size c program files LEAP Images ref img extend etc 3 1 1 2 Import a whole directory more than one file at the time The Data Rainfall Import RFEI Rainfall Directory function enables the import of a while directory of files Input Directory The name of the RFE input directory C RFE REE1 containing gz containing several files The Base directory to which the image has c program files LEAP Images Directory to be written Dataset name Dataset name The name of the output Rainfall dataset RFEI1 I A ance The name of the reference image c program j determined pixel size extend etc files LEA P Images ref img 3 1 2 RFE2 Rainfall archive RFE version 2 0 replaced RFE1 0 as the operational United
106. otranspiration B is the Total Water Requirement without water stress Ky is a crop dependent variable determined by the authors Therefore a high yield reduction denotes a poor yield and the other way around Three functions exists to calculate the yield reduction ba Calculate Yield Reduction I Crop 1 Season ba Calculate Yield Reduction I Crop more Seasons ba Calculate Yield Reduction All Crops more Seasons Similar to the water balance calculations the three functions produce the same output The number of calculations however differs The settings for the first option Calculate Yield Reduction 1 Crop 1 Season are LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 53 Image Base c program Image Base Directory files LEAP Images Water Balance Water Balance dataset for input water balance e and ame yield reduction First year touse year to use The year of calculation year of calculation 2000 LEAP displays Created c program files LEAP Images Yield Runl 2007 Maize MeherLongCycle Yield Reduction 2007 1img 5 5 Basket Yield Reduction The Calculate Yield Reduction Aggregate by Crop Basket function calculates the basket yield reduction It will use the crops defined in the current basket setting l l c program Image Base Directory Name of image base directory files LEAP Images Input Water Balance The dataset for input yield reduction and Runl Dataset output basket yield reduction First year to tak
107. putation module This technical note is a guide for using the Needs computation module in LEAP Full confidence in the use of LEAP is a necessary pre requisite for using the Needs module expert LEAP user This chapter is organized as follows Paragraph 6 1 describes the log model adopted for the needs computation and the meaning of implied parameters Paragraphs 6 2 to 6 5 describe the steps for the needs computation as implemented in LEAP Section 6 reports a checklist of operations to be performed in LEAP for estimating potential beneficiaries 6 1 The log model LEAP adopts the following model to relate drought condition to the number of beneficiaries ZT A N N K g W F log QWRSI F which uses the WRSI output from the LEAP software In equation 1 the parameter K is defined as D NieNo log W F log C F gt and the parameters are No Needs in case of optimal rainfall chronic food insecure Nr Population at risk Wo Lowest observed value of RWRSI Wu Optimal RWRSI F Systemic failure level The regional WRSI RWRSI is defined as the weighted average of a woreda level combined WRSI CWRSD XP CWRSI W RWRSI sz P 5 W where the subscript W indicates the woreda P is the population For each woreda the CWRSI is defined as CWRSI qa WRSI En g WRSI 5e EN Grn WRSI 00 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 56 where WRSI and WRSI and WRSI represent th
108. r to manipulate the colours and the ranges LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 69 Missing Savelegendas The legends are stored in the CLR directory Legends can either have Fixed values ranges The ranges applied are absolute Byte value ranges where uncoded the byte values in the image 0 255 determine the colors Legends can be edited with the editor above or a simple ASCII editor like WordPad More information on legends can be found in paragraph 12 3 8 2 3 Comparing the image values to normal When the Compare to Normal checkbox is checked the image values will be displayed relative to the Normal value average of all images of the same dekad crop As an example below the rainfall for the first dekad of September in 2001 RFE2 is compared to the average RFE2 rainfall for the years 2000 2007 The green colours denote above normal rainfall The yellow to red colour denote below average rainfall 1D x Monk Boungsaes Latets Select Parameter to View ona Wosecdiar Line Nore M For Ow Ra ARae S amp GB Actual Rainfall in mm DiI 200t 00 Other Daret Cunert RFE None LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 70 8 2 4 Getting pixel details A pixel is a little square of 0 1 by 0 1 degree roughly 10 x 10 kilometers that holds a single value in the image After zooming in a pixel can be clearly distinguished
109. rcumstances shall the World Food Programme or their respective officers employees agents or affiliates be liable for any loss damage liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to resulted from use of this software including without limitation any fault error omission interruption or delay with respect thereto This documentation may contain advice opinions and statements of various information providers and content providers The World Food Programme does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any advice opinion statement or other information provided by any information provider or content provider or any user of this site or other person or entity LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page The software and the documentation contains links to third party web sites The linked sites are not under the control of the World Food Programme and the World Food Programme is not responsible for the contents of any linked site or any link contained in a linked site The World Food Programme provides these links only as a convenience and the inclusion of a link does not imply endorsement of the linked site by the World Food Programme LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 10 2 LEAP Basics 2 1 Prerequisites for using LEAP Processor Pentium III class PC S00 MHz or higher recommended RAM 256 MB of RAM 512 MB preferred Hard Disk 500 MB disk space required Display Designed for XGA resolution at 1024 x 768 or
110. rements Satisfaction Index WRSI and 19 related parameters like water deficit actual evapotranspiration and water excess The basic model has been developed by FAO and is well described by a number of publications The basic publications describing the model are Frere M and Popov G F 1979 Agrometeorological crop monitoring and forecasting FAO Plant Production and Protection Paper No 17 FAO Rome Italy Frere M and Popov G F 1986 Early agrometeorological crop yield assessment FAO Plant Production and Protection Paper No 73 FAO Rome Italy The standard FAO software that runs this model is AgrometShell The Yield Reduction estimates These are based on the Water Balance output and a formula developed by Doorenbosch and Kassam in their classic study Yield Response to Water This publication is found here LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 13 http www fao org AG AGL aglw cropwater parta stm This yield reduction represents an empiric crop specific factor calculated from the WRSI see previous point The Livelihood parameters Number of Beneficiaries and Costs for Livelyhood Protection per Woreda The calculation of these parameters is done outside LEAP itself in spreadsheets created by WEP The methodology used in the SNNPR assessment sheets is a combination of both a qualitative and quantitative approach The methodology uses the livelihood baseline data established in 2005 for the 40 livelihood zones i
111. rimar dataset not available then use If Secondary dataset not available then use Hormals AFE_ARC ki JoSheet k Do not use tertiary dataset k ETO Data Primary Dataset IF Primary dataset not available then use If Secondary dataset not available then use Actuals NMA Do not use secondary datasets Do not use tertiary dataset k Primary Normal Dataset IF Primary dataset not available then use If Secondary dataset not available then use Hormals FAQ Do not use secondary datasets sd lt Do not use tertiary dataset ki In this window the priorities are set for the input data on crops rainfall and ETO In the example above the crop data are taken from the Zonal dataset If the Zonal dataset does not contain data for a certain time period no other dataset is available and missing values will be produced in the output The first dataset LEAP will use when looking for actual rainfall data is NMA SEDI If this dataset is unavailable for a certain time period RFE2 will be taken otherwise RFE1 Ete Dataset priority enables the use of multiple datasets while not having to specify the dataset with every function 2 7 Crop baskets Through crop baskets it is possible to create compound indexes an index covering more than one crop Within this index crops are weighted according to a percentage that reflects the number of LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 16 hectares grown or tons produced or any other weighting Crop
112. rural human population densities Over 600 monitoring sites have been set up in 18 zones across the region covering approximately 50 000 square kilometers each with minimum of 40 monitoring points For each geo referenced monitoring point a multiple species grazingland plant growth model PHYGROW is parameterized with ground collected data soil profile plant community and grazing rules and weather variables The weather variables include daily historical 1961 NOW minimum and maximum temperature rainfall and solar radiation The model is then run every 4 days with current all weather data to determine standing crop of the forage available to grazing animals and the percent deviation in forage relative to historical weather data 1961 NOW The model uses soil parameters plant community characteristics traditional management decision rules for livestock plus weather data for a particular location to simulate the available daily forage for livestock and other major herbivores Graphical tracking of the automated PHYGROW model output at each site since 1998 is available every 3 4 days at http glews tamu edu africa Summaries of the information can be derived from individual sites by comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI and available forage weighted by composition of livestock NDVI provides a measure of green biomass on the ground as seen from the AVHHR satellites LEWS automation technology acquires this data every
113. s Effective Rainfall Percentage Sowing Window Start Dekad O Sowing Window End Dekad O Crop Basket Water Balance PUNI O Percentage Available Data Total Water Requirement O Final Index RSI O Normal Index O Last Index based on Actual Data O Water Excess Initial Phase O Water Excess Vegetative Phase O Water Excess Flowering Phase O Water Excess Ripening Phase O Water Deficit Initial Phase Oi Water De By ot th i be penile Duw erin ear 2007 v Month September v Dekad 1 X Crop Maize_MeherLongCycle f Display J Cancel Year month and dekad of the rainfall image to view After pressing Ok the rainfall file is displayed la x Crop Mask lt none gt Select Parameter to View rh O na eC SD Boundaries _woreda bna Actual Rainfall in mm 2007 September 1 gt O0to 10 c VVfp images RainiRFE22007 Rain_2007_9_1 img 10 to 20 _ Compare to Normal a L B 20 to 50 E o to 100 H 00 to 200 B 200 to 300 Boo to 400 Missing Image Values Value 1 Pixel 136 Line 21 Longitude 46 30 Latitude 13 08 Navigation August3 r a lt 2006 Display in Google Earth Aggregate to Excel This rainfall image can be compared to normal with the Compare to Normal checkbox For more advanced viewer functions the Viewer chapter Chapter 7 can be consulted 3 2 Potential evapotranspiration ETO Currently LEAP holds tw
114. sion of the software can be obtained from the WFP site http www hoefsloot com downloads leap_install exe 1 6 Compatibility with other software Microsoft Excel Many LEAP functions interface with Microsoft Excel any version will do It is therefore imperative to have MS Office version 2000 or above installed AgrometShell AMS LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 8 AgroMet Shell is an integrated toolbox used to assess the impact of weather conditions on crops using statistical and crop modelling approaches AMS is a collection of tools for the integrated analysis of ground data and low resolution satellite information created by FAO AMS is built around a database of crop weather and climate data that are used to compute a crop specific soil water balance and to derive some agronomic agrometeorological value added variables indicators used to assess crop conditions The software integrates data analysis and IDA image functions database functions configure input output and manage data crop specific soil water balance to monitor crops or carry out risk analyses spatial interpolation of agroclimatic variables and other indicators including their presentation as maps and calculations of crop water consumption potential evapotranspiration rainfall probabilities growing season characteristics etc Download software and documentation from http www hoefsloot com agrometshell htm Windisp Windisp is a pu
115. storical drought parameter Wo Wo is the lowest historical drought index for the target area It does not necessarily reflect the lowest possible value of the drought index Therefore future crop seasons may produce regional drought indices that are lower than any value in the historical record In such cases the log model potential beneficiaries would exceed the expected population at risk This is a desired property of the log model when the estimate of parameters value is based on historical records and the log model should be able to extrapolate the outcome of future drought conditions that are worse than any situation in the historical record Wm Wx is the value of the drought index in the case of optimal rainfall By optimal we refer here to most favorable rain condition relative to the local climate Therefore although WRSI 100 corresponds to optimal condition for crop growth the value of Wy can be less than 100 according to local climate F The failure level F corresponds to complete failure of the crop season no production It is a difficult parameter to estimate from observation For example at the local scale it may depend critically from farming practices and from the skill of individual farmers However for the purpose of the present calculation which to indicate rainfall distribution patterns during a crop season that leading to extremely low effective food production one possible way of selecting the value of F is to li
116. t c program files LEAP NMA Dekadal Rain June 2006 ETo xls Created image c program files LEAP Images Rain NMA 2006 Rain 2006 6 1 img based on 37 stations Created image c program files LEAP Images Rain NMA 2006 Rain 2006 6 2 img based on 31 stations Created image c program files LEAP Images Rain NMA 2006 Rain 2006 6 3 img based on 31 stations The dataset written to is NMA INVD 3 1 6 Combining NMA point data and satellite based data to a new rainfall estimate The SEDI method is has been developed to help combining point data and gridded data into an even better spatial estimate than both data sources can provide separately The SEDI method is described in a separate document that can de downloaded here http www hoefsloot com Downloads The 20SEDI 20interpolation 20method 20 pdf The SEDI method can be applied to rainfall from the LEAP software with the Data Rainfall SEDI interpolation of Rainfall function The program will use the dataset priority to find the gridded LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 32 rainfall data images It is therefore important not to include SEDI_NMA in the dataset priority when calculating SEDI rainfall images This directory contains the NMA point data files in CSV format Example 39 48 13 50 0 MEKELE Directory for Station 37 42 12 55 1 GONDAR A P c program based Rainfall files 39 73 11 12 12 COMBOLCHA files LEAP NMA 39 03 10 03 0 ALEMKETEMA Format Longitude Latitude Rainfall
117. ter holding capacities effective rainfall LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 64 capacities whose information are included in the zone spreadsheet usually contained in the respective folders e g o C Program Files x86 LEAP Projects Meher o C Program Files x86 LEAP Projects Belg o C Program Files x86 LEAP Projects Pastoral Once the LEAP underlying crop model is correctly setup and the latest satellite rainfall estimates are locally available the checklist of necessary step for a fully customized needs computation are 1 Data gt Crop gt Calculate Planting Dekads based on rainfall threshold or on water balance 2 Calculate gt Water Balance gt All Basket Crops More Seasons Step 1 and 2 must be repeated for the Belg Crops and for Meher Crops depending on the type of seasonal estimate that is being conducted 3 Needs gt Extract WRSI by Woreda Prepares the woreda level WRSI for needs computation Note LEAP asks for a standard low value to assign to the case of no planting equivalent to complete crop failure as shown in figure This step may take some time depending on the selected time interval The woreda level WRSIT is extracted for each crop in the crop basket for belg and meher 4 Needs gt Select Target Area see section 3 above 5 Needs gt Log model setup see section 4 above 6 Needs gt Compute Needs see section 5 above Figure 8 Extract WRSI by Woreda selecting a
118. th automatically check the internet to see whether new data are available New users can subscribe themselves to this system by sending a mail to peter hoefsloot planet nl 3 1 2 2 Getting new data through internet FTP two steps When the function Data Rainfall Import RFE2 Rainfall Get new data internet FTP is run a browser pointing to ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa gov fews newalgo_est_dekad will open The files to download have the following naming structure 1Oday_precip bin YY YYMMD z YYYY is the year MDM is the month number 01 to 12 D isthe dekad 1 to 3 So 10day_precip bin 2007091 gz is the image for the first dekad of September 2007 Once the image has been downloaded it can be loaded into LEAP with the function Data Rainfall Import RFE2 Rainfall File The settings are set a follows Input file gz The name of the RFE2 input file ONE EREA Oy recy pie 02052 gz Image Base The name of the image base directory in i l Dircon LEAP c program files LEAP Images Dataset name The name of the dataset RFE2 Ret AR ETE The name of the reference image c program i determining the size of the output image files LEAP Images ref img After the import LEAP displays Created ct program files LEAP Images Rain RFE2 2002 Rain 2002 5 2 img The same can be done for a whole directory of RFE2 images with the Data Rainfall Import RFE2 Rainfall Directory function Settings LEAP version 2 61 f
119. their dependents Farmers remain highly susceptible to extreme uncontrollable weather events that can severely impact both quality and yield of a crop Such events include excessive or insufficient rainfall and extreme temperatures Generally these weather events cannot be controlled In recent years it has become apperent that the threat of climate change could have a severe impact on farmers livelihoods Since the year 2000 the World Bank s Commodity Risk Management Group CRMG has been looking into possibilities to set up weather insurance for farmers and their governments to comple ment its price risk management work in commodity markets Just as with any insurance the principle is based on paying a premium every year and receiving the pay out whenever the insured risk actually occurs CRMG was involved in its first index based weather risk management transaction in India in June 2003 the first ever weather insurance project in the country Since 2003 there have been several other pilots around the world including completed pilots in Ukraine Ethiopia and Malawi and upcoming pilots in Kenya Tanzania Thailand and Central America Successes like the market growth in India have had significant demonstration effects and have proven that weather risk management for farmers in the developing world is possible through insurance type instruments A number of articles have been published to describe the use of weather insurance in developing
120. tion based rain gauge data As the NMA data are usable only when converted into images the LEAP software provides this functionality Because most of the rainfall sources have a resolution of 0 1 x 0 1 degrees LEAP has adopted this resolution as the basis for its own calculations 3 1 1 RFE1 Rainfall archive RFE 1 0 10 Day Africa rainfall estimates were produced from 1995 2000 by the United States Climate Prediction Center in support of the USAID FEWS project Estimates were produced by combining satellite temperature data rain gauge measurements and modelled wind and relative humidity to obtain dekadal precipitation totals from 20W 55E 40S 20N with 0 1 degree resolution For further explanation see More information can be found here http www cpc ncep noaa gov products fews rfel shtml The production of this type of RFE is discontinued From the year 2000 onwards it is replaced by the RFE2 rainfall estimates produced by the same organization The complete RFE1 archive is loaded in LEAP The original archive can be downloaded here ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa gov fews RFE1 0_10day_archive 1995 ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa gov fews RFE1 0_10day_archive 1996 ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa gov fews RFE1 0_10day_archive 1997 ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa gov fews RFE1 0_10day_archive 1998 ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa gov fews RFE1 0_10day_archive 1999 ftp ftp cpc ncep noaa gov fews RFE1 0_10day_archive 2000 LEAP has two functions onboard for the imp
121. ues to Excel The boundaries used Aggregation boundaries to aggregate the pixels C Wfp Bna zone bna to The first year to export First year LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 88 Last year The last year to export 2000 Input Water Balance Dataset Dataset name for name water balance data Whether to use a Use Mask mask Masks limits the amount of pixels exported If previous option is positive this option specifies the masking file name Mask file C Wfp msk Belg feb oct img In Excel the data are shown EJ Microsoft Excel Sheet1 Ioj x File Edit wiew Insert Format Tools Data window Help Type a question for help X a z Arial alio le E A amp C2 bd fre 1995 1996 1997 1998 19959 z000 2001 11 4 Export Yield Reduction to Excel With this function the user can export Crop basket WRSI values to Excel The boundaries used Aggregation boundaries to aggregate the pixels C Wfp Bna zone bna to LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 89 export The last year to export 2000 Input Water Balance Dataset Dataset name for Runl name water balance data Whether to use a Use Mask mask Masks limits Yes the amount of pixels exported If previous option is positive this option l A Mask file peee ea king C Wfp msk Belg feb oct img file name This option specifies the crop for which to l Lop export the yield Moek reduction data Just as in the previous example the data are t
122. uld a value for a zone for a certain crop be missing in the first sheet the value from the second sheet will be taken With this feature the user can import a new zonal crop data file with defaults while preserving the old values for zones and crops that have missing values This feature will be very useful when importing Woreda level inputs and using zonal level inputs as backup The following settings apply inj x Input Excel file CAdelphitLEAPiProjectsiBelgiBelg Mew xls Second Input Excel file CcldelphiiLEAPiProjects BelgiBelg Oldxls Output Crop Dataset name Belg id Import Sowing Window Start Dekad K Import Sowing window End Dekad K Import LGF K Import Crop Basket K Import Planting Dekad onal K Iimpat Water Holding Capacity K Import Effective Rainfall Percentage K Import pre Season KCR gt This function uses the crops in the Crop Basket ff OK M Cancel F Advanced Input Excel file Name of the spreadsheet containing the LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 44 zonal data files _LEAP Projects Belg Belg New xls Second nout Name of the second spreadsheet containing c program PP the zonal data This file provides a backup files LEAP Projects Belg Belg Excel file for the first sheet Old xls Name of the LEAP dataset in which to save Dataset name Belg the data parameters gt During importi
123. vac males ure neeees tacts 35 32 Potn alevapotranspiraton ETO rossana tasinaeretetieh eerie 36 3 2 1 Importing and calculating NMA actual ETO sssssnnenensessssseenrssssssssseerrsssssssees 37 3222 Viewmns the ElOdatain the View 8 ssensensie a 40 A Workine with crop data cenean a tdummnieen ee 41 4 1 Working with crops and crop characteristics cccccccccssssesseececeeeeeaeeeesseceeeeeeeaas 41 42 Workme witizonal crop data cereau a 42 4 2 1 Checkthe Zones and heir NAMES c se2ssesies secede diesattaxatheuddehedacesxas ce cetadiesa iaxaroensse 42 Agee Ediune Zonal dala wasensnnindreuiwasntdt essa wete ee aaesnde paola eee 43 LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page A Howto add atrop serne r taeda kcied alvatomiaieict a eauelaiee 45 Ack SEP Addme a Dase COD ce a bee slupiemiamiantheeseauerdaaist 45 Ao SEP Addn Crop COC CIEN er ia nh ferietoter talents nah tonnes 46 4 3 3 Step 3 Add the crop to the basket crop list cc eeeeeeeeeeeceeeeeaeeeeeeeeeees 46 4 3 4 Step 4 Add the new crop to the Zonal spreadsheet ccccccssseeseeeeeeeeees 47 45 9 SED mporn tie Zonal shet seors ade vatrd cece aa 48 44 Determining plants CeK AGS easererece cca a a teak cons migeunueahate were eecaaee tt 48 AD Specitymne planine datesmantally nereriscnersnneen urn oul 49 Ao Vicwine Zonal IMAGES saves e E en eeaaaie i wea 49 I Calculatine the crop Mdexe Sasina E E 51 SE Calculatinethe water balance CW RSD ceceich teticcem
124. y clim bin 19950111 qz gt Done f f Internet R 10 4 In the first step daily ARC has to be converted into dekadal ARC This is done for a whole directory at once with the function Data Rainfall Create Dekadal Arc use before import After creating a dekadal image for the first dekad of December 2006 the program writes the following status messages Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061201 gz LEAP version 2 61 for Ethiopia Page 25 Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061202 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061203 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061204 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061205 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061206 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061207 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061208 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061209 gz Reading D RFE ARC Downloaded daily clim bin 20061210 gz Created D RFE ARC Downloaded dekadal clim bin 2006121 Then as a second step the dekadal ARC imagery needs to be imported into LEAP Importing a single ARC data file is done through the menu item Data Rainfall Import ARC Rainfall File The following settings apply ss Input file The name of the daily ARC file l o downloaded Tronrihe FIP cite G RFE ARC dekadal_clim bin 1995013 Image Base Image base directory c program files LEAP Images Dataset The na

LEAP version 2.61 for Ethiopia

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