NRM Climate Futures User Guide - Full v1 8
Contents
1. to Much Hotter and Much Drier to Much Wetter Note that the division of classes can vary between variables For temperature there is only an increase rainfall has classes for increase decrease and little change Likelihoods are assigned to the different climate futures using the colour shadings below Table C Expand Collapse buttons show more detail within the cell such as model names and display data Table C Colour shadings used for assigning likelihoods to climate futures Nil Not projected by any models Very low Projected by up to 10 of the models Low Projected by more than 10 up to 33 of the models Moderate Projected by more than 33 up to 66 of the models High Projected by more than 66 up to 90 of the models Very high Projected by more than 90 of the models In this example Figure D the most likely climate future is Warmer and Little Change in Rainfall as most of the models 66 fall into this particular future The most extreme climate futures are Warmer Wetter and Warmer and Drier and the climate future showing the least change from the past is Slightly Warmer and Little Change in Rainfall However this is only the case for the greenhouse gas scenario and time period that have been selected as displayed at the top of the page See Error Reference source not found 1 4 In the Advanced Mode there are several display opt2. 20 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt Cc eee e en To ENG 2055 A2 high emissions using model CCCM Increase Decrease Units 1 159540862 C 1 994942815 Future Climate 2055 A2 high emissions Surface Temperature Annual NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Rainfall Annual Figure J Template Excel spreadsheet Enter your observed climate variable data in the cells labelled lt insert obs gt under the corresponding variable heading Note Observational data should be from the same baseline used for the projections twenty year period 1980 1999 The values will be automatically scaled to the selected time period and greenhouse gas scenario under the heading Future Climate NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 16 NRM Climate Futures User Guide Comparing Projections Climate Futures provides tools to easily compare different greenhouse gas scenarios and time periods To compare projections select Compare Climate Projections in the top menu bar You will see the comparison interface as shown in Figure K In this interface the user can select multiple combinations of greenhouse gas scenarios and time periods for comparison These can be displayed as multiple matrices or combined into one matrix Climate Futures Comparison Tool Selectthe comparison method and climate variables and seasons you wish to examine Then add time periods and emissions scenarios of interes and sel
3. 313 318 Morton FI 1983 Operational estimates of areal evapotranspiration and their significance to the science and practice of hydrology Journal of Hydrology 66 1 76 Naki enovi N Swart R 2000 Ed Special Report on Greenhouse gas Scenarios A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA Taylor KE Stouffer RJ and Meehl GA 2011 An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93 4 485 498 Australia 2011 Climate Change in the Australia www Australiaclimatechangescience org available in November 2011 accessed 25 05 2011 Vuuren DP Edmonds J Kainuma M Riahi K Thomson A Hibbard K Hurtt GC Kram T Krey V Lamarque J F Masui T Meinshausen M Nakicenovic N Smith SJ and Rose SK 2011 The representative concentration pathways an overview Climatic Change 109 1 2 5 31 NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 24
4. from the menu bar You will see the advanced interface as shown in Error Reference source not found In this interface you are presented with the choice of greenhouse gas scenario time period climate variables and seasons that are used to classify and group the climate futures as well as display options Select an emissinm vcenaria and time perind limate variables LJ sutace Temperature LJ Minimum Daly Temperature L sois natation LJ strong wind LJ namtat LJ Humiry LJ Heavy Mandal LJ Maximum Day Temperature L evaporation LI wind Speed Seasons L annual O Apr L August L December November SON 5 January LJ May 19 September December February DJE UI November Apel NOJFMA February LS june J october E March may MAM IJ May October MIJAS Omah auy E November E june August 234 Figure A Climate Futures Advanced interface NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 5 NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 1 Drop down menus for selecting a greenhouse gas scenario and time period defaults are A1B and 2030 2 Drop down menus to select the classifiers used to define the climate futures matrix two climate variables and their associated seasons default climate variables are temperature and rainfall and the default season is annual 3 Blue buttons providing more details regarding the input variables or refer to the Glossary of Terms on page 24 4 Display options to create a more detailed Cl
5. sw 43 7 _ Export _ Figure I Representative Model Wizard output The Export button next to each climate model and score can be used to download data Exporting Data for Impact Assessments Once representative models have been selected for the climate futures of relevance to the impact assessment the projected change values for that model can be obtained directly from the Climate Futures tool To export data just click on the Export button in the Representative Model Selection Wizard Figure A download menu then opens up providing the option to save a template Excel spreadsheet to your computer This spreadsheet will look similar to the one shown in Figure J you will need to adjust the column widths in order to view the data correctly NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 15 SE Futures for Country 2 3 4 Variable Season 5 Surface Temperature Annual RE Rainfall Annual gt 8 Observed Climate _9 Surface Temperature Annual Rainfall Annual 10 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 11 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 12 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 13 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 14 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 15 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 16 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 17 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 18 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt 19 lt insert obs gt lt insert obs gt
6. that peaks in mid century and declines thereafter and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies Major underlying themes are convergence among regions capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income The A1 storyline develops into three scenario groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system They are distinguished by their technological emphasis fossil intensive A1Fl non fossil energy sources and technologies A1T or a balance across all sources A1B where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies B1 The B1 storyline describes a convergent world with the same global population as in the A1 storyline one that peaks in midcentury and declines thereafter but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies The emphasis is on global solutions to economic social and environmental sustainability including improved equity but without additional climate initiatives A2 The A2 storyline describes a very heterogeneous world The underlying theme is self reliance and preservation of local identities Fertility patterns acr
7. Morton 1983 Solar radiation Surface downward shortwave radiation equivalent to global radiation a commonly used measure in agriculture and energy applications Wind speed Mean wind speed calculated from eastward and northward components at 10 m above the ground Strong wind 99th percentile mean daily wind speed equivalent to the average of the four windiest days in a year two windiest days in 6 months etc Actual values may also be displayed if desired Greenhouse Gas Scenario Climate Futures provides projections based on the climate models used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s Fourth Assessment Report AR4 as well as those that will be used for the Fifth Assessment Report AR5 due for release in 2015 Projections based on the AR4 models also called the CMIP3 models can be generated for three greenhouse gas scenarios as described below for further information see the Special Report on Greenhouse gas scenarios Naki enovi and Swart 2000 sometimes called the SRES Note that projections based on the AR5 models CMIP5 use a new set of future NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 21 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways refer to the glossary entry for more detail A1B The A1B greenhouse gas scenario is a specific case within the A1 scenario The A1 storyline describes a future world of very rapid economic growth a global population
8. Much Drier 15 00 Moderate 33 66 Drier 15 00 to 5 00 High 66 90 Little Change 5 00 to 5 00 Very High gt 90 Wetter 5 00 to 15 00 Much Wetter 15 00 Figure L Comparing climate projections multiple matrices comparison 1 The time period and greenhouse gas scenarios for which the climate futures were generated are listed here along with red circular Add Remove buttons Refresh button to update the results Climate futures are grouped with greenhouse gas scenario running top to bottom and time periods from left to right Climate Futures matrix for each time period and greenhouse gas scenario There are pre defined categories for the classification For temperature and rainfall they range from Slightly Warmer to Much Hotter and Much Drier to Much Wetter Likelihoods are assigned to the different climate futures using the colour shadings described previously Table C page 9 NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 19 Comparing projections Composite Matrices The Composite Matrix screen shows projected climate futures for each chosen time period and greenhouse gas scenario for the two classifying climate variables in the region of interest in a single matrix Error Reference source not found This view is similar to the advanced view Figure J with the exception that the associated time period and greenhouse gas scenario are displayed alongside the co
9. the Australia region map Depending on the comparison method chosen you will be presented with either the Multiple Matrices Figure L or a Composite Matrix Figure M Note Changes displayed in both the composite matrix and the multiple matrices are relative to the period 1980 1999 Comparing projections multiple matrices The Multiple Matrices screen Figure L shows projected climate futures for each chosen time period and greenhouse gas scenario for the two classifying climate variables in the region of interest These are smaller versions of the full matrix view Figure G and only show the spread of model results and no model names or variable results can be obtained from this view This view can be used to quickly view how a climate projection changes over time or how projections vary under different greenhouse gas scenarios NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 18 Surface Temperature Rainfall MD North East Climate Futures Experiment Time Period A1B medium emissions Y 2030 v remove A1B medium emissions Y 2055 v remove A2 high emissions M 2030 v remove add another 2030 A1B medium emissions 2055 A1B medium emissions Surface Temperature Surface Temperature 5 Slightly Warmer 0 50 6 Warmer 0 50 to 1 50 Hotter 1 50 to 3 00 Likelihood Proportion of models Much Hotter 3 00 Not projected No models Very Low lt 10 Low 10 33
10. 90 Very High Surface Temperature Rainfall Annua November April NDJFMA May October MJJASO Annual November April NDJFMA May October MJJASO Mean 0 9 1 0 07 03 Standard Deviation 0 3 04 3 9 Figure G An example climate futures matrix 1 The classifying climate variables and corresponding seasons that you have selected are found along the top and left sides of the matrix 2 There are pre defined categories for the classification For temperature and rainfall they range from Slightly Warmer to Much Hotter and Much Drier to Much Wetter 3 Likelihoods are assigned to each climate future based on the number of models NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 13 projecting this future and these are colour coded as previously described Table C page 13 4 The climate variables and seasons you have selected in the display options panel appear in corresponding cells in the climate futures matrix when the individual cells are expanded Note Large numbers of display options will cause the results to extend off the screen and can be viewed by using the screen scroll bars 5 The models you have included are displayed in the output matrix when the cells are expanded 6 Values for mean and standard deviation are given for each climate future in the expanded cells 7 Expand Collapse buttons allow you to view details of the climate future 8
11. Check box to select this climate future for use in the Representative Model Wizard 9 The Representative Model Wizard helps you find a suitable climate model for your specific application See the next section for further details 10 Statistics of all model data for selected display variables and seasons Selecting a representative model Representative Model Wizard In many impact assessments it is not practical to evaluate the impacts for all climate models from each climate future In such cases it is often appropriate to identify two or three climate futures that are of the most relevance to the impact assessment One or two climate models can then be selected to represent each of these climate futures The Representative Model Wizard is a tool for objectively selecting a climate model from each climate future of interest To access this feature click on the button within a certain climate future You will then be presented with the model selection wizard as shown in Figure H Surface Temperature 1 Mean X Es 2 A Rainfall iW Variable Season Rank Method Rank 3 Rainfall Annual Mean V Rainfall NDJFMA Mean V Rainfall MJJASO Mean V Figure H Representative Model Selection Wizard The model selection wizard displays each combination of climate variable and season that was displayed in the climate futures matrix 1 The Rank Method settings are used to determine which statistical measure will be used to evaluate each model wi
12. ay options to create a more detailed climate futures matrix You can also choose a corresponding season of interest Detailed information is available for the whole year individual months as well as for seasons November April and May October Note This selection of climate variables and seasons affects the information displayed within the cells of the matrix but not the classification of projections into Climate Futures i e you will still see the same climate futures and associated likelihoods It merely provides more detailed information for the climate variables chosen when the cells are expanded Select which climate models to exclude if necessary By default all models are selected To exclude one or more models from the projections click the expand button to display the model selection panel Figure F in the advanced view Figure A 5 Individual models can be de selected by clicking on the tick boxes to remove the tick However models should only be excluded if there are good reasons to do so for example if a model has been shown to perform poorly in a particular region When generating projections for these regions it may be desirable to exclude them In general though the climate futures matrix should be generated with as many models as possible to ensure the full range of possible climate futures is shown Excluded models can be re included by clicking the tick boxes again Information about the climate model can also
13. be obtained by clicking on the model name NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 11 Models selection AN Caution selecting a subset of the available models can bias the likelikhoods of climate futures M BCCR BCM2 0 Mi CCCMA CCCM3 1 T47 4 CCCMA CGCM3 1 T63 M CNRM CM3 M CSIRO Mk3 0 M CSIRO Mk3 5 M Max Planck ECHAM5 MPI OM M MIUB KMA ECHO G M LASGI IAP FGOALS G1 0 M GFDL 2 0 M GFDL 2 1 M ISPL CM4 M CCR MIROC H M CCR MIROC M M MRI CGCM2 3 2 M UKMO HADCM3 M UKMO HadGEM1 M NCAR CCSM3 Check All Figure F Model selection panel Once the above settings have been selected you can generate climate futures for your region of interest Just click on a region on the Australia region map The Climate Futures Matrix will then be displayed Displaying the projections the Climate Futures Matrix The Climate Futures Matrix screen shows projected climate futures for a chosen time period and greenhouse gas scenario for the two classifying climate variables in the region of interest with additional information displayed within each climate future cell Figure G NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 12 Annual Surface Temperature C Hotter Muci Slightly Warmer Warmer 1 50 Hotter lt 0 50 0 50 to 1 50 to gt Annual Rainfall mm Representative Model Wizard Likelihood Proportion of models Not projected No models T veytow a Low 10 33 Moderate 33 66 High 66
14. cts on the system being assessed Representative Concentration Pathways Climate Futures provides projections based on the climate models used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s Fourth Assessment Report AR4 as well as those that will be used for the Fifth Assessment Report AR5 due for release in 2015 Projections based on the AR4 models also called the CMIP3 models can be generated for three greenhouse gas scenarios for more detail see the Greenhouse gas scenarios glossary entry above Projections based on the ARS models CMIP5 use a new set of future greenhouse gas concentration scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs The Representative Concentration Pathways RCP are based on selected scenarios from four modelling teams working on integrated assessment modelling climate modelling and modelling and analysis of impacts Vuuren et a 2011 Unlike the earlier SRES greenhouse gas scenarios the RCPs are not new fully integrated scenarios i e they are not a complete package of socioeconomic greenhouse gas and climate projections They are consistent sets of projections of only the components of radiative forcing the change in the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation to the atmosphere caused primarily by changes in atmospheric composition that are meant to serve as input for climate modelling Conceptually the process begins with pathways of radiative forcing not detailed soci
15. ect a region of interest found on the map below Select a comparison method Multiple Matricies 1 Select classifying variables and season Surface Temperature x Annual 2 Rainfall x Target Period s and Emisisons Scenario s A1B medium emissions Time Period Experiment A1B mediumemissions Time Period 2055 v remove Experiment RCP 45 Y Time Period 2030 v remove 4 RCP 45 Period Figure K Comparing climate projections window NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 17 1 Drop down menu to select comparison method multiple or composite 2 Drop down menus to select the classifying variables used to define the climate futures matrix two climate variables and their associated season default climate variables are temperature and rainfall and the default season is annual 3 Drop down menus for selecting a greenhouse gas scenario and time period defaults are A1B and 2030 4 Red circular Add Remove buttons to determine target periods greenhouse gas scenario and time period 5 Map of the Australia regions click to explore climate futures Add Remove experiments and target periods Up to nine target periods and greenhouse gas scenarios can be added for comparison via the Add button Once the above settings have been selected you can compare climate futures for your region of interest Just click on a region on
16. g are defined as the gg percentile i e the heaviest strongest 1 of events See the Glossary of Terms on page 24 for a detailed description of the climate variables or click the blue information button NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 7 For each climate variable a season can be selected You have the following options to choose from Table B Seasons to choose from e Annual all seasons e November April e May October e Individual months In order to change the default value annual just click on the little arrows on the drop down menu to show the seasons available and click on your choice Figure C Select classifying variables and seasons Columns Surface Temperature Annual Rows Rainfall E gt January February March Generate climate futures for a region Pn w June july August September October November December DIF December February MAM March May JJA June August SON September November NOJFMA November April MUJASO May October Figure C Selecting seasons for the two chosen classifying variables Seasonal climate futures provide more information about when the largest and smallest changes are likely to occur In some cases little change in the annual average can mask large increases and decreases in particular seasons This can be important for activities in which the timing of climatic events is critical such as plantin
17. g or harvesting crops Displaying the projections The Climate Futures Matrix Once the above settings have been selected the projected climate futures are generated by clicking on the region of interest on the map provided The results are then displayed in a table referred to as the Climate Futures Matrix Figure D The selected climate variables are shown across the top and left sides in pre defined categories These categories are based on changes relative to a 1990 baseline the twenty year period from 1980 1999 Model projections are classified and grouped into cells in the matrix with each cell representing a climate future Information is also provided on the relative likelihood of each climate future NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 8 Annual Rainfall mm Annual Surface Temperature C Slightly Warmer Warmer Hotter Much Hotter lt 0 50 0 50 to 1 50 1 50 to 3 00 gt 3 00 Much Drier lt 15 00 Drier 15 00 to 5 00 Little Change 5 00 to 5 00 Wetter 5 00 to 15 00 Much Wetter gt 15 00 Figure D Example Climate Futures Matrix 1 The classifying variables and corresponding seasons that are used for the classification of projections appear along the top and left sides of the matrix There are pre defined categories for the classification that describe the climate futures in grid cells For temperature and rainfall they range from Slightly Warmer
18. imate Futures Matrix 5 Models selection panel to decide which climate models you want to exclude 6 Map of the Australia regions click to explore climate futures for the region In the following sections the features of the Advanced Mode are described in detail Setting the classifying variables and seasons Two climate variables called the classifying variables are required to generate the projected climate futures that will be displayed in the Climate Futures Matrix By default surface temperature and rainfall are used There are 10 variables to choose from Table A Climate variables available in Climate Futures Surface Temperature e Wind speed e Max Daily Surface Temperature e Strong Wind e Min Daily Surface Temperature e Relative Humidity e Rainfall e Potential Evapotranspiration e Heavy Rainfall e Solar Radiation Note Not all models and greenhouse gas scenarios have data for all variables Click on the arrow on the drop down menu to see a list of the 10 climate variables Figure B then click on your selection Select classifying variables and seasons Surface Temperature Annual i olumns Surface Temperature Ga Rows I Rainfall bis Wind Speed Maximum Daily Temperature Generate clil ne Daily Temperature of interest u Evaporation Solar Radiation Heavy Rainfall Strong Wind Figure B Selecting the classifying climate variables Note Heavy and Stron
19. ing terms are common to all three user modes Climate Future A Climate Future is the description of a plausible future climate both qualitative for example warmer and wetter and quantitative for example 10 of 18 models agree as described by the combination of two climate variables for a particular time period and greenhouse gas scenario Climate futures can be assigned an indicative likelihood rating based on the proportion of climate models that fall within the climate future In Basic Mode climate futures are always described by the combination of annual average surface temperature change and annual average rainfall change In Advanced Mode these variables can be modified Climate variables Units of Variable Notes change Surface temperature C Mean temperature as measured at 2 m above the ground Maximum temperature C Mean daily maximum temperature as measured at 2 m above the ground Minimum temperature C Mean daily minimum temperature as measured at 2 m above the ground Rainfall Mean rainfall Heavy rainfall 99th percentile mean daily rainfall equivalent to the average of the four wettest days in a year two wettest days in 6 months etc Dry days Mean number of days with lt 1 mm rainfall Relative humidity Mean relative humidity as measured at 2 m above the ground Potential evapotranspiration Wet Areal Potential Evapotranspiration calculated according to
20. ions that result in a more detailed results and the chance to decide which models should be included in generating climate futures for a region of interest NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 9 Setting Display Options The display options panel Figure E in the advanced view Figure A 4 allows you to select which of the climate variables available in Climate Futures you would like to display within the climate futures matrix You can select one several or all of the 10 variables It is important to understand which variables belong within a given climate future for a given pair of classifying variables In general only variables that change in a predictable way when one of the classifying variables changes i e that are correlated should be displayed within the matrix Table D shows which variables correspond with each of the three most commonly used classifying variables surface temperature rainfall and wind speed Table D Appropriate variables to use with each of the three most commonly used classifying variables Variables marked with an asterisk will not always be correlated Surface Temperature Rainfall Wind Speed Maximum Temperature Heavy Rainfall Strong Wind Minimum Temperature Solar Radiation Evaporation Relative Humidity It is important to note however that the variables Heavy Rainfall and Strong Wind will not always be well correlated with Rainfall and Wind Speed respect
21. ively The nature of the relationship between these variables can be investigated with the climate futures matrix For example to investigate the relationship between Wind Speed and Strong Wind set these two variables as the classifying variables and examine the resultant matrix If there is a tendency for Strong Wind to increase or decrease as Wind Speed increases there is a correlation However if changes in one variable generally correspond to little or no change in the other there is little or no correlation Note If no variables are ticked in the Display options panel the climate futures matrix will look the same as in 1 Annual Surface Temperature C 2 Slightly Warmer Warmer Hotter Much Hotter lt 0 0 50 to 1 50 1 50 to 3 00 gt 3 00 Much Drier lt 15 00 50 Drier 15 00 to 5 00 B Little Change i 5 00 to 5 00 Annual Rainfall mm Wetter 5 00 to 15 00 Much Wetter gt 15 00 page 9 NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 10 Display options Climate variables Surface Temperature Minimum Daily Temperature Solar Radiation Strong Wind Rainfall Humidity Heavy Rainfall Maximum Daily Temperature Evaporation Wind Speed Clear Seasons Annual April August L December Select Months Clear January May September November April NDJFMA February June October May October MJJASO March July November Figure E Displ
22. oeconomic narratives or scenarios Central to the process is the concept that any single radiative forcing pathway can result from a diverse range of socioeconomic and technological development scenarios Four RCPs were selected defined and named according to their total NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 23 radiative forcing in 2100 see table below RCP 8 5 Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8 5 W m in 2100 RCP 6 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W m at stabilization after 2100 RCP 4 5 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4 5 W m at stabilization after 2100 RCP 2 6 Peak in radiative forcing at 3 W m before 2100 and decline Of these Climate Futures provides projections for RCP4 5 and RCP 8 5 Time Period Climate Futures allows you to explore projections for up to 13 future time periods in 10 year increments from 2030 to 2090 depending on the greenhouse gas scenario selected References CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2007 Climate Change in Australia Technical Report www climatechangeinaustralia gov au technical report php accessed 25 05 2011 Giorgi F Jones C and Asrar GR 2009 Addressing climate information needs at the regional level the CORDEX framework WMO Bulletin 58 3 175 183 Meehl GA Boer GJ Covey C Latif M and Stouffer RJ 2000 The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81 2
23. or a given location classifying variables time period and greenhouse gas scenario the Best Case climate future is that which would result in the most positive or least negative impacts on the system being assessed For example in an assessment of the possible impacts of changing climate on mosquito borne diseases the climate future with the least increase in temperature and a decrease or least increase in rainfall is likely to represent the Best Case Choosing the Best Case climate future requires a good understanding of the system being studied Worst Case Of the climate futures projected for a given time period and greenhouse gas scenario the Worst Case Climate Future is that which would result in the most negative or least positive impacts on the system being assessed For example in an assessment of the possible impacts of changing climate on mosquito borne diseases the climate future with the greatest increase in temperature and the greatest increase or least decrease in rainfall is likely to represent the Worst Case Choosing the Worst Case climate future requires a good understanding of the system being studied Lower Likelihood Potentially High Impact Of the climate futures projected for a given time period and greenhouse gas scenario the lower likelihood potentially high impact are the largest changes in temperature and rainfall that are projected These could represent a best case and or a worst case depending on the impa
24. oss regions converge very slowly which results in continuously increasing population Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines Key Climate Futures A subset of the projected climate futures for a given location classifying variables time period and greenhouse gas scenario that are the most important for decision making These are usually described as Best Case Worst Case and Most Likely Case See also Climate Future The following key climate futures which are often relevant to risk assessments are referred to in the Advanced user training Most Likely Case Of the climate futures projected for a given location classifying variables time period and greenhouse gas scenario the Most Likely Climate Future is that represented by the greatest number of climate models It must be remembered however that the climate that does eventuate could lie outside the range of climates projected by any of the climate models used in Climate Futures Least Change Case Of the climate futures projected for a given location classifying variables time period and greenhouse gas scenario the Least Change Climate Future is that which is closest to the current 1980 1999 climate in terms of the selected variables NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 22 Best Case Of the climate futures projected f
25. rresponding model names This view is useful for looking at the combined likelihood of a climate future to see if certain climate futures only occur under at certain time periods greenhouse gas scenario North East Climate Futures Experiment Time Period ALB medium emissions Y 2030 Q remove A2 high emissions v 2030 remove add another Annual Surface Temperature C Slightly Warmer Warmer Hotter Much Hotter lt 0 50 0 50 to 1 50 1 50 to 3 00 gt 3 00 Much Drier lt 15 00 Drier amp 45008200 10f33 models Annual Rainfall mm Little Change 5 00 to 5 00 Wetter 5 00 to 15 00 3 of 33 models Much Wetter gt 15 00 Likelihood Proportion of models Not projected No models Very Low lt 10 Low 10 33 Moderate 33 66 High 66 90 Very High gt 90 Figure M Comparing Climate Projections Composite Matrix Comparison 1 The time period and greenhouse gas scenarios for which the climate futures were generated are listed here 2 Add Remove time periods and greenhouse gas scenarios and refresh the results 3 Models along with the associated target period and greenhouse gas scenario are displayed within the Climate Futures Matrix NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 20 Glossary of Terms Throughout this Workbook and Climate Futures you will encounter a number of terms The follow
26. st NT ar NS NS A us CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS Pme KT T FOR AUSTRALIA S NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT REGIONS CLIMATE FUTURES TOOL USER GUIDE NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 Table of Contents IATPOCUCTION sssi a a N BERETT 4 Getting to know the Climate Futures web tool ssssessseesseecssesosesosssesssessesosesosesossesosesesse 5 Detailed Climate Projections 0sisccssssiesescrseecedewaseunsdveve tecewsse owes scious EEE NG dee E E NE aR EEE DE 5 Setting the classifying variables and SCASONS sssssssesseesssssessssessessessessesnsssessessesseesesssesecsesussscsuessesecsscsneesteasestssesseesees 7 Displaying the projections The Climate Futures Matrix iii 8 SEtting Display Options nent a a aves nn A EEE 10 Select which climate models to exclude if NECESSALY sssssssssssscssssecssesecsssssessessesssesessessesseesesseeseeseeseesacssssaesnsssesess 11 Displaying the projections the Climate Futures Matrix sisi 12 Selecting a representative model Representative Model Wizard ini 14 Exporting Data for Impact ASSESSMENTS ner 15 COMP AMINE PROJECTIONS sus pcsscessssuvendiiehacssaade vasitiadiveiesiaseadiedinsavadsnesibextieciisiemmestisdineiinesvtedtins 17 Add Remove experiments and target Periods sssssssssssssssssssssssssssesssssssssssssssssessessesssesssesssesssssesssesssesneessessessseensees 18 Comparing projections multiple matrices Comparing projections Composite Matrices Glossar
27. thin a particular climate future For example if you NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 14 wish to select a model that is representative of the mid range of a particular sub set you should set the rank method to Mean If you wish to select a model that is representative of the upper or lower end of the range of a certain climate future set the rank method to Max or Min by clicking on the little arrows in the drop down boxes 2 The Rank settings can be used to assign relative weightings or priorities to individual variable season combinations if variable field is expanded see point 3 For example if surface temperature in November to April is the most important for an impact assessment it would be ranked 1 The other variable season combinations would be assigned lower rankings 3 Rank methods and rank priorities are grouped by variable For finer grained control each variable season can be ranked separately by selecting the expand button Once you are done click on the Rank button at the bottom not shown You are then presented with the ranked results for your chosen settings Figure I You see that each model that fell into your chosen climate future is assigned a score The climate model having the lowest score at the top depicts the most representative model based on your ranking criteria Note that only models that can provide all of the variables selected under Display Options will be ranked Model
28. ups are represented by simple descriptions such as warmer and little change in rainfall warmer and much wetter hotter and drier and so on Likelihood statements are then assigned to each group according to the level of agreement amongst models for the given climate future e g 75 of the models may show a warmer and wetter future in 2055 under a medium greenhouse gas scenario while 25 show a hotter and much wetter future The most likely climate future in this example is warmer and wetter Classifying climate projections grouping them into climate futures and allocating likelihoods reduces the complexity for end users By using the Climate Futures web tool it is also possible to narrow the range of climate projections for specific applications since it facilitates the process of choosing a small number of representative climate models appropriate for a designated application The Climate Futures web tool also ensures that data produced have internal consistency which is necessary for complex and scientifically sound impact assessments involving multiple variables NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 4 NRM Climate Futures User Guide Getting to know the Climate Futures web tool The Climate Futures Demonstration site can be accessed from any modern internet browser iav devel it csiro au Detailed Climate Projections To access the Detailed Climate Projections select Detailed Climate Projections
29. y OF TEL EL 21 References nina NE EEE AE AES I A REAR A EA SNES ISA RADE 24 NRM Climate Futures User Guide Full v1 8 3 Introduction Climate Futures is a new approach to exploring climate projections that reduces the level of complexity for the end user It allows the user to generate climate change projections tailored to their application whether it is a general overview of climate change for a region an investigation of likely threats and opportunities or a detailed risk assessment using impact models The purpose of this document is to provide guidance in using the Climate Futures web tool for the generation of national climate projections and the selection of climate model output for specific impact risk assessments Climate Futures is a free web based tool providing access to and exploration of climate projections for Australia With the growing number of available climate models such as CMIP3 Meehl et al 2007 CMIPS Taylor et al 2011 CORDEX Giorgi et al 2009 conducting detailed impact assessments using a large number of these climate models is often not feasible The Climate Futures web tool presents these projections in a unique way that reduces the complexity in an application relevant way For each greenhouse gas scenario the available projections are classified using two climate variables and are then grouped into what has been termed climate futures For temperature and rainfall for example the different gro
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