Home

Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide

1. o For Help prezs Fa ML Click on the down arrow in the pull down menu until the federal funds rate appears Click on that line and GDP in the display will be replaced by the federal funds rate Note the data are alphabetized either by mnemonic or description The mnemonic for this variable is RFED and the description is federal funds rate eS OXFORD ECONOMICS B Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Aj Ge iuo Geneve Save Qe dioe fetes Advanced Work pel Gs CcinowiLatest Dasejunt Ldb Federal funds rate Specly Changes Impinment Lanne SOLVE 2004 1005 3006 2005 2008 2003 2010 2011 22 2013 24 2015 2016 Ar ang 2019 Q1 10072 AAA 4456656 5 255667 3106Gb Q 1833333 02500000 2250017 SAIME 54929723 4525030 4 5003294 4 500425 4 500420 4 500657 4 500496 qz 1013133 2340000 4 300000 5 250000 z 0B5Gb7 0 1430000 5000000 23983873 57429803 524984G 4 500078 4500553 4500341 4500446 4 500665 4 500549 q3 1440000 3460000 5 250000 5 073333 1 340000 Q 1000000 1 000000 3 866856 57439886 4 382871 4500226 34500480 4500312 4 500463 4 500514 4 500430 Q4 194605667 3973313 5 246666 4425665 Qb05bGb 01000000 1 500000 4 753830 5 T4397T0G 4 742831 4 500308 45004340 4500336 4 500569 4 500340 4 500387 Total 5 40
2. ee M M G MM MM M eS M rM E za 2i al ZU fl ula UTE fl For Help press FL ee OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide By holding the left mouse button down and moving the mouse up or down you can pull the graph up or down to the level desired This process can be repeated for any period on the graph To choose another period to change click near it or use the left or right arrow keys to move along the line to it EM tetord Economics Global Macro Model Ag Ge pole Bebee Saye Geer Rove Selbe Advanced Window pep D us hd mod Y CanowiLatest Dasetjunii db jis Wariabie les Uam E Tj Germnmy Gansuemptien private reni 55 Lava Values Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted 3till Th Levels D a a a r c 3 a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a om 34 84 R oe er 300 PA ZUUR pal Lii Zu fl zT UTE fl For Help prezs Fl For our example we ve inserted a spike in the series in 2010Q4 When you have made all the graphical adjustments you wish click on the graph icon again so that the data display is again visible Note that the values for the periods you had pulled away from the original line have been changed and so has the chart The graph can also be used to interpolate between any two points If you are following along with us click on the graph icon and click on a point on the
3. 16 DIOM 16 DOODO 1E Average 1665657 11127500 1350833 3211666 459563133 019166 15327500 01315833 2500000 4718807 38TBB12 319x237 4000000 4 ooo 4 aoto 4n00d000 4 Chge 47 13 8 19 81 137 75 54 54 1 12 41 60 83 17 1793 94 6B T3 8 13 8 16 44 681 0 00 0 00 0 00 For nap press 1 NUM The box labelled Include All Countries is checked by default Since we want to run the entire Global Model leave it If this box is not checked when the OK button is pressed a screen will appear that offers the option of selecting countries to be included in the solution The dialog box now looks like this Dates Files Solve 2005 n to 2015 4 Change Planes aembcnte oe C now Latest Base jun1I db C now Latest Base HIUSRATE db Options iv Include All Countries OK Cancel Click on the button labelled OK and the model will begin to solve While it is running the text Solving will appear in the middle of the screen Also a DOS icon will appear in the application bar at the bottom of your screen If you click on it you will be able to see the iterations counted for each time period in the solution range When the forecast is complete you will be returned to the variable data screen You will then be asked if you wish to Continue or Update Datafiles choose Continue and then you will be returned to the main menu screen Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guid
4. 35 4 Ji H A 91 EHAA 35 4 Jg H A 0 91 100 groa 91 33 8 0 91 133 8 197401 39 2 33 96 5 0 93 196 5 dde s 102 3 100 5 1 023 143 5 39 5 102 3 101 2 1 023 196 5 102 2 102 3 101 39 1 023 200 5 197501 103 4 102 3 104 1 023 201 2 101 8 109 5 105 4 1 095 201 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide The label OEF mnemonic must be found in a cell in the spreadsheet All of the rest of the information is found relative to this base cell The time series are defined in columns to the right of the base cell There may be blank columns but all data in the sheet must conform to the required format NA values are acceptable The series mnemonics are defined on the same row as the base cell they are labels of a maximum length of fifteen characters and may be justified as the user desires for ease of reading The country definition maximum eight characters is on the next row Any one spreadsheet can hold data for one or more countries or regions It is formated as a label If you are updating an OXFORD ECONOMICS World Macro database rather than a database of a model you have built yourself which would have country region names as you defined them the country regions must come from the following current list note long country names must be clipped exactly as shown here US JAPAN EURO 11 GERMANY FRANCE ITALY UK ARGENTIN AUSTRALI AUSTRIA BELGIUM BRAZIL BULGARIA CANA
5. the four quarterly observations are listed above the annual total annual average and annual percent change Historical data actual figures released by the appropriate statistical agency are displayed in black while forecasts supplied by Oxford Economics are in red Note the June 2009 10 year and 5 year databases were the source for most of the screen shots in this manual The data you see will differ if you are working with a different database Our exercise will focus on a change to US short term interest rates By clicking on the down arrow next to the variable description the variables for the US model are displayed iis Oord Economics Global Macro Model Fie jie Betoeve Save Qlhge dove Serge Advanced Widow Hep EM amp D ub oY Wy CAnowiLatest Dasetjuniidb Untied Staten F oor GOP numinal COPS GDP comslani prices and exchange rele t lau GUE nominal sd lt PODO prices Seasonally adjusted GER Re GDF real annual growth GOPHE ADI GDP nominal per capita Speulp Changes GDPHEADPPP OAP USS prices A PPP ereh rete reni ner ca oP ADP 155 priera A PPP rechange mile reni Implement Lane MPPP GOP USS priae A PPP archange raba nianimnal DESP Gorenean exyendiburm lulal GF Federal gore curulis amp meele re Gr Federal qoverneent cons exp amp nvesiment nomin Fr gu i Federal government balance based on TOF data OFENDA Federal government b
6. 25738 2 786447 3 20581 48824 3 48176 2 19680 30636 2 07323 1 48329 3 29655 1 09547 3 49221 55887 3 17652 20238 4 1091 5695 1 8307 T3322 2 3208 T As you can see at the top of each column the database country and mnemonic are provided The V indicates that variable values as opposed to residuals are listed in the columns and this is followed by the designation of the transformation if any The starting date for the series follows then the date of the last historical period and the date of the last forecast imposed by the user The number of periods of data stored comes next along with an indication of the period of the data 4 is for quarterly Finally the data is listed Note if differences or percentage changes are requested that require data from before the start of the database the data will display as zero The three boxes below Save all information and data to PRN file allow the format of the ascii file to be altered Check the Excel Comma delimited box if that format is preferable for later use as opposed to the fixed field widths of the default format A comma delimited file will have file extension CSV instead of PRN Rather than the fixed width format shown above the ascii file created will have the individual values separated by commas Most spreadsheet applications will read such files correctly and easily putting one value in each cell Spreadsheet programs can also read fixed format files but extra steps may
7. 2 2 United States GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices C OE Variable Annual Chges 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4 4 Q 1 3 35 3 05 1 42 2 04 3 30 1 08 2 86 3005 3006 3007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 3 06 2 98 1 86 1 60 3 90 1 88 3 15 GDP real CAOENaug db Q3 3 09 2 23 2 74 0 03 2 93 2 18 3 29 GDP real CAOEVoilshock db Q 4 2 73 2 45 2 53 1 86 1 08 2 47 3 25 Canada GDP real C Millions seasonally adjusted 2002 prices C OE aug1 db Varishla Annus 197 Chase a UH 8 4 Exporting data There are a couple of different ways to save data to another type of file The simplest way is to copy and paste Once you have data in the spreadsheet grid in the lower right hand side of the screen highlight the data that you want to save and then click the right mouse button That will bring up a box of three options Copy Select All and Change Display Dates Choose Copy then move to an excel sheet or a notepad session or other program environment Then right click on a file open in that environment and choose paste The data will be transferred to the excel sheet or other file exactly as it appears on the View and Download Data screen Note if you start to highlight the series from the far left column of period labels the data will be saved from the start of the database 1980 in most cases Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Another way to save or expor
8. 350 0000 350 0000 Total 1227 430 1230 210 1244 730 1240 720 1233 180 1350 500 OO 000 Average 3068575 307 5525 311 1825 310 1800 303 7950 340 1450 350 0000 350 0000 320 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 Choe 0 17 023 1 18 0 32 0 12 5 80 2 50 0 00 pon 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 lel For He press FL REI If you just put 350 in the white box with no equals sign before it it would add 350 to every quarter over the range specified It is also possible to adjust a variable by a percentage by entering for example 5 Over the specified range the variable will be adjusted down by 5 of its prior value Here s what a 5 reduction over the forecast range would look like for German consumer spending m Uxlard Economics Global Macro Madel M Die Inf Retrieve Save Other goke Selinas Advanced Window Heb Bx Dag cm S p LAN AWAD ntest Baseijunti dh zm los Marini 2 C Germany Consumption privabi raal 1C Level Values Consumption preste real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted Lew els roroa3a ys pororo jqoc3 sro MNA UL ZI pr n aG ZI 2004 2005 7006 000 2009 2010 7013 214 as 25 mr mns amg 307 0300 307 1100 309 0700 3082400 310 8200 310 5800 230 0651 291 9351 297 7033 305 2462 3120662 218 0736 323
9. Change Dahabas CUE sandal do Reftesh Geng E 8 1 Displaying data The screen is divided into four roughly equal sections In the upper left corner are two boxes The leftmost contains a list of regions and the one to the right a list of economic sectors Beside each entry in these lists is a small box containing a plus sign Clicking on the plus sign will open up sublists for each region and sector as shown below s Data Facility File Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help Database Key indicators United States Capacity utilisation model consistent version CUMOD Argentina Consumer price index CPI Brazil Consumption private real C Canada Current account of balance of payments BCU Chile z Current account of balance of payments BCU Mexico Earnings average ER Europe Employment total ET gt Germany Exchange rate period average AXD France Exports goods amp services real X Italy E Federal funds rate RFED United Kingdom GDP constant prices and exchange rate GDP Austria GDP nominal GDP Belgium GDP nominal GDP Bulgaria GDP real GDP Croatia Government balance GB Czech Republic Government expenditure total GEXP Denmark Government revenue total GREY Finland Imports goods amp services real M Greece v Income personal disposable real PEDY v Change Database C OE aug db Remove Remove All Refresh Graph lt ff gt Oe OXFORD ECONOMIC
10. Click on Spreadsheet WK3 or on Spreadsheet XLS and then on the file holding updates and the following screen will appear Spreadsheets Update All Variables from Spreadsheet Update All Residuals from Spreadsheet Update All Vanables and Residuals from Spreadsheet For Current Country Only Update Using List in SEL File Update Current Variable Only Automatically Add New Variables from spreadsheet to Model Caneel The options allow for complete or partial updates from the spreadsheet Select an option click on OK and the data will be processed into a run file For the data to be incorporated into a database the model must then be solved starting in the earliest period for which data is provided Getting the data into a valid WK3 or XLS file is up to the user Here is a portion of a valid WKS file The structure of the file must follow the example exactly but in general there is no distinction between upper and lower case and column widths and fonts may be set as desired ORF mnemonic I5 pc OME PC MF OEF country GERMANY GERMANY GERMANY GERMANY germany Variable Eezidual VAR VAR RES RES VAR Dataset source JEF OEF JEF JEF OEF Date of data YYMMDD 3308103 330727 330803 930727 330803 Source mnemonicz Transformatirc PLEMQ PAAR PLJBOQ Pc 1ul PLIBQ Periodicity 4 4 4 4 4 No of observations 32 38 jb 38 36 First period given Y VYYVPP 197301 197301 197304 197301 197303 Time series from 197301 35 4 31 H A Hp 9T EH
11. Mexico Earnings average ER Europe Employment total ET gt Germany Exchange rate period average RXD France Exports goods amp services real X Italy J Federal funds rate RFED United Kingdom GDP constant prices and exchange rate GDP Austria GDP nominal GDP Belgium GDP nominal GDP Bulgaria GDP real GDP Croatia Government balance GB Czech Republic Government expenditure total GEXP Denmark Government revenue total GREY Finland Imports goods amp services real M Greece v Income personal disposable real PEDY v Change Database C OEoilshock db United States United States GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices C OE GDP real Annual Chges acl E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4 4 Q 1 3133 525 3228 975 3274 975 3341 725 3231 350 3266 167 3359 453 Q2 3146 875 3240 625 3301 000 3353 825 3223 100 3283 704 3387 023 Q3 3170 800 3241 475 3330 275 3331 150 3233 603 3303 987 3412 793 Q 4 3187 175 3265 175 3347 800 3285 475 3250 137 3330 409 3438 733 2 2 Canada GDP real C Millions seasonally adjusted 2002 prices C OE aug1 db Variable Levels 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 0 Q 1 307915 2 319521 2 325344 8 330753 2 323701 2 322331 7 335455 2 Q2 310153 2 320511 2 328738 2 331023 2 322357 2 325116 7 338386 2 Q3 313319 8 320914 8 330451 5 331363 0 321035 8 328869 1 341328 5 Q 4 316419 0 322471 2 331372 5 328220 0 320886 8 332297 3 344525 6
12. TEZT TPT United Ztates 30 D7 ZOD8 at 2 30 pm Tahle 1 Annual changes used except there otherwise stated Rey Indicmtora zUUS 1 ZUUS z z009 J ZULU 4 z um zuus z010 Beal Grosa Domensrim Product zB38 4 zB827 0 za159 95 2JB21 7 11552 1 1307 0 Liga 1 4 Compound annual e J1 6 9J r UJ 1 1 3 U 1 2 Year age 2 5 3 7 22 0 1 1 3 0 1 2 Consumer Price index zlz 6 gJ t 15 1 z14 ris 2 21J EL 5 compound annuml 0 4 0 9 E Dn 3 i B 0 1 8 by year age o 2 n a i n n a 1 8 0 7 1 8 Hominal consumption share of GDP D 71 0 71 0 71 1 70 5 70 8 71 1 JUNI DD TEST Ter Tarman JO U7 2009 amp t 2 JU pm Table 1 Annual 4 chang s used except where otherwise stated Key Indicators 200 1 2009 2 200 3 200 sq 2 nis 0049 2010 xr Fer Help gress Fl n start A E E 1 a 3 2 T Une e m Merosoft of DER E uud 5 eford Eca E TPTABLES T Note The Standard Templates include templates for the Cross Country tables described in the previous section They are labelled OV1 TPT OV2 TPT etc These templates can be used as shown in the example below to produce those Cross Country tables on a quarterly basis If you wish to create these Cross Country tables in this way do not select All Countries even though data from all countries will be included Rather on the country selection screen click on a single representative country to generate one copy of the table s selected If you select All Countries you will generate one
13. from a number of different countries When the model is then solved those changes will affect the other endogenous variables resulting in an entirely new scenario To begin click on the Run Model icon on the first screen That will open a dialog box offering a choice of available databases Select one and click on Open By default the variable change screen starts with real GDP in the US from the selected database ET oxtora Economics Global Macro Model AS fle info Bere Gaye Qie gobe Seling Advenced Vonxkew pei 2 18 7x D a i elope CAnowiLatest Dasetjunildb jis Verupe JE ox d nara States 0 GOP GOP real Level Vines SDP real USS Chained Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted 4000 Speil Changer Impirment Cancel S500 eni vr Levels 1992 1995 1990 2001 2004 2007 l 2010 2013 2016 l 2019 2004 2005 2005 AU 2008 208 2010 3011 32012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2017 2018 2019 Q1 25353 2718950 2804 25 2039 450 2311 500 2838425 7031537 2830 000 30253245 3173247 3275 051 GP 209 3468 659 35720039 3652814 eA Q2 2558550 21355275 2822325 2872850 2931850 2826964 204 376 2963027 30303 725 3200 390 3298 53 3387 156 23495 842 3534 313 3688308 3796517 Q3 26824175 Zr82500 2026 525 2906 425 2928 100 2915 521 2870481 2994421 A1150 3225 6025 3322078 3418 005 2522487 3616221 314 635 3825
14. ievervmuen Federal funds rate Speuly Changes impinment Caneel 5n VE Lewelg i 2007 2000 2009 2010 2011 202 2013 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2010 2011 2042 2043 2014 2015 206 A7 A18 2019 Q1 100333 2473333 4456666 5256667 3176667 01833333 1 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4090000 4000000 4 000000 Q2 1013333 2 940000 4 900000 5 250000 2 086667 01430000 2 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4090000 4000000 4000000 Q3 1440000 3460000 5 260000 5 073333 1 940000 0 1000000 3 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4090000 4000000 4000000 Q4 1946667 3 072333 5 246666 4496666 05066667 01000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4090000 4000000 4 000000 Total 5 402313 12 843667 1385313 2007507 T T10001 0 5263333 10000000 15 00000 15 00000 16 00000 15 00000 15 00000 15 00000 16 00000 15 00000 16 00000 Average 1 350233 3 211666 4 963333 5 019166 1 927500 0131563 2 500000 4000000 4 000000 4 ODODOD 4 000000 4 000000 4000000 4 000000 4000000 4 DODDO 5 Chga 19 81 137 75 5 54 1 12 1 860 93 17 1795 34 60 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 n n 4 lel For Help press F 1 Mm Notice that the graph of the series in the top portion of the screen has been altered to display both the new and the original path for this series Notice too that there is
15. tri i i e 47 au 2 yu 1 11 Lit 1 16 1 9 14 19 1 932 t a MLL su Lu m 1411 an A 1 94 BU 1 11 aves i 7 47 TU in LAL s In 1 07 m wm u 4 47 a aaa v E ov NES wir imh ovn te Line 1 Col 1 A When you have finished viewing the tables click on File and Exit from the toolbar or the X button in the upper right hand corner to close the browser window 6 2 User Tables 6 2 1 Setting up a table template As well as printing standard tables provided by Oxford Economics users can also print off tables designed themselves These tables are controlled by the information in template files which the user can set up to include specific table titles subtitles and data series and series descriptions to be included To create a template choose Advanced Options in the main menu screen and then select Design User Tables from the new list eS OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide EA Oxford Economics Economic Models 77 Fie Model Data Tables Reduce Variable List Window Help OXFORD i ECONOMICS Global Macro Model Design User Tables Templates Generate Tables from User Templates amp List Information from Database Alternative Data Facility amp Main Options The following screen will then appear Clicking on the boxes labelled Title or Subtitle will bring up a dialog box that requests the user to type in a text string that will appear in the table as a title centered on the page or a sub
16. 10 571 10 947 Qe 1 0324 3 5260 3 3333 10 068 10 633 10 553 11 083 LFE 1 1746 3 8558 Tu 70 490 10 473 Tu zug 11 385 Qi 1 2729 3 343 10 501 10 038 10 704 10 796 11 249 zn Pio ALTE zd z zl roo i 11 110 9 9506 5 3082 10 450 10 830 11 445 12 002 oF TH g 10 148 3 819 TA 101 991 11 5275 127 115 QJ 10 213 10 160 3 0695 10 514 10 033 11 001 12 512 gA 9 821 10 075 Tu 2 7 10 701 11 146 11 495 12 754 2008 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 e 4 ol 1 0S 11 736 12 157 12 927 13 725 1 4 Afi 15 196 z 13 172 11 850 12 309 13 124 13 338 14 668 15 387 03 13 2Hh 11 915 12 57 13 311 14 131 14 0511 T5 hEi d4 12 027 12 014 12 704 13 513 14 303 15 011 15 731 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 l 15 901 15 551 17 1310 1r g058 19 585 OF 15 0923 16 741 17 373 1 fa fa 15 813 3 15 245 16 858 17 533 18 246 12 017 4 1h 3Hh Tr na Tz Huz 1H 475 15 219 For Help prezs Fl ha pe 9 3 Graphing variables To graph up to four variables select them from the list in the variable selection box by clicking on them If the lines are adjacent you can drag the mouse cursor over them If they are not adjacent click on them in succession while holding down the control key Then click on the button labelled Draw Graph Click on OK and the graph will be drawn as shown on the top of the following page The lines are identified by means of colour and a vertical line separates historical data from forecast By default a horizontal line at the value of zero is drawn If
17. 2200 2011 1 704 21974 3 0000 304 1874 58 1156 0 9356 82 436 172 7758 1 0348 lB6 0466 a 305 5063 a aont 305 50 64 RAGT 563 51 83 528 1 81 4055 1 0390 LAT 45316 d JUG 7156 0 UL JUb5 7156 BS 9310 U 5423 ee Le 141 6193 1 0190 100 Ua FS 4 109 00Na 0 naonn Ana nnris 01 4098 GaiaT 85 8031 182 8535 1 0411 150 1395 aU01iz 1 911 9006 0 00200 311 8006 G2 6755 0 9914 86 3173 183 4228 1 0426 181 2645 219 4995 0 0000 315 5995 92 7019 1 589 67 86 8315 187 5551 L 315 1532 2 5692 d 215 59J6u U DIL J15 393 00 94 0259 U S290 OT 3457 105 tuJa 1 0407 183 2396 4 318 0058 0 0000 318 0056 04 6263 0 3265 a7 8594 197 1570 1 0366 194 0135 E Ba 1 319 955 B Drm J18 955 94 0262 U 920 Un 107 3266 1 0304 194 TSS z 321 4113 n nann 521 4113 O5 3 784 0 943410 AR ARTA 128 079 1 0394 105 5033 d Jri 6072 i LRL J21 6072 gue ios u s US 4020 189 1022 1 u37u 18b 2497 4 723 6008 0 0000 323 6006 06 3846 0 953259 39 3159 180 3323 1 0350 196 895 2014 1 325 3807 i UL uu 425 3807 dp J376 uU 70 4105 180 5711 1 u37u ig T4409 i 26 7025 0 0000 326 7025 07 3556 0 9341 80 8444 121 0508 1 0358 198 4853 3 326 8790 0 0m0n S28 8790 a7 2050 0 ce On 1 4579 he 0368 L 0375 139 2303 4 220 0097 i ULL J20 007 YU 4UG2 0 9746 F1 9724 159 2634 1 0347 199 97 14005 TIFNE L406 TIPRD 15004 IF 14007 l w The box labelled Fixes and Equations provides two types of information in one ascii file First the equations for all of the endogenous and identity variables i
18. 277 Q4 2599100 2771 525 2833 00 2905 175 2880525 2821672 2090 728 2302303 3144462 3251 355 3344 525 3443 34 3540 T O 2638 940 3741 208 3652 911 Total 10675 73 10383 50 11294 80 11523 90 11651 30 11206 380 11448 12 11510 46 1239546 12051 63 1340 19 13621 36 14035 05 143421 48 14807 67 15243 10 Average 2658031 2mMT 375 2623719 2880 975 2912 004 22256 746 2862031 20T77 620 3059116 3212506 3310 0408 3405 341 3500212 3605370 3701 18 3810 778 5 Chge 3 54 2 278 20 1 11 2 56 1 25 4 4 08 357 302 2 88 3 05 2 74 2 58 24 pum pets xac mc er c l e For Help press F1 HUM At any time you may change the open database by clicking on the button marked chge base to the right of the database list box This will bring up the list of available databases again Select one by clicking on it This document was prepared with the June 2009 forecast as the starting base Similarly the list boxes on the next line allow you to switch the focus to a different country and or variable Click on the down arrow beside the list box containing United States to see the countries and areas available Clicking on a country name will bring up the same series for the new country say Germany Click on the down arrow beside the box containing the variable description and name to see a list of all series available for the country that has been selected Use the scroll bar to
19. 3 11 8 52 3 16 15 35 302565 2 49 B5 7 15 2 35 47906 17 1082 975 50 5 710 15 157 4094 82 5 70 075 27 865581 214 1301 729 5 5 35 52 475 16 425 35 13893 2 84 63 9 14 125 34 78267 REJ 1093 325 51 26667 708 05 156 5171 83 275 66 725 28 49995 215 0463 742 2 12 525 55 05 16 75 37 15965 3 B4 375 14 225 34 73848 19 197401 1083 65 50 76667 701 95 154 2191 83 225 61 875 29 80088 215 5965 748 2 6 55 75 16 625 37 84217 3 05 62 175 14 525 34 76399 20 1086 975 50 83333 704 75 153 1789 83 075 59 175 31 22957 218 2241 756 5 8 275 58 475 17 95 39 438865 3 08 65 475 14 95 35 06625 21 1076 45 50 6 707 9 150 5549 82 125 57 2 30 42273 220 0153 759 4 2 925 55 325 17 05 37 25994 2 97 B4 35 14 65 34 430098 22 1072 225 48 63333 697 7 143 6686 79 85 4965 29 9905 221 7521 768 1 8 725 55 75 18 2 38 30539 1 908 B3 7 15 025 33 09425 23 197501 1059 4 45 43333 703 65 136 137 74 9 45 5 31 12519 223 1767 764 7 3 45 57 175 19 125 38 73951 1 073525 57 325 14 65 28 9531 24 1067 15 44 83333 715 125 132 7407 72 925 47 475 26 56913 225 0951 758 2 56 475 55 5 19 825 36 90058 1 035778 52 725 13 8 26 33677 25 1085 225 45 96667 725 3 136 5498 73 6 50 75 31 45234 225 7114 756 9 1 3 54 55 17 025 37 71472 0 914388 57 1 13 8 28 95014 26 1099 45 46 96667 732 85 139 2655 74 25 52 95 33 05734 225 5124 755 8 D 1 57 55 18 2 39 66353 1 021733 60 15 14 375 30 69362 27 197501 1124 2 48 4 747 425 144 3159 75 625 56 4 34 01585 224 8948 763 9 7 05 57 25 18 4 39 21579 1 009765 63 925 14 72
20. 324024 15 712318 15 00000 15 00000 15 00000 16 00000 15 00000 16 00000 Awarage 1 350223 3 211666 4 263233 5 019166 1 927500 0 131563 2 500000 4 224806 3237208 4 178235 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4000000 4 000000 4 000000 amp Chae 15 81 137 75 Ea Sa 1 12 61 60 33 17 1755 54 68 55 5 17 2 35 4 27 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 fn ____________ fy For Help press Fa NUM Please return the variable to the flat 496 line before proceeding by repeating the copy and paste function we used earlier in this exercise 3 3 Solving the model Click on the button marked Implement to add this new path to the file of changes Then click on the button labelled Solve The dialog box you have just opened controls the model solution At the top are the dates for the forecast solution You can change these by clicking on the appropriate box and over typing For example to change the forecast solution period to end in 2015Q4 click on the third box after the label Solve and replace what is there with 2015 Note you cannot lengthen the solution period beyond the range of the starting base The starting database is listed below JUNE1L DB followed by the name of the database to be created It is always a good idea to name the database so that it is easy to remember its purpose Click on the box marked Change to the left of the Output Base name which will bring up a standard Windows file opening box listing
21. 4 changes Company Sector and Supply Side Company Sector and Supply Side changes Inflation Indicators Government Finances Government Finances X changes OF Cancel Options 1 Public Finances UK only All Countries At the top of the screen is the name of a database from which tables may be drawn By default this will be the name of the last Oxford Economics baseline data installed or the last database created but any available database may be selected To change the database names click on the button labeled Change to the left of the name This will bring up a file opening screen which will display all files with extension DB in the folder where the Oxford Economics software is stored Select one of them by clicking on it and then clicking on OK Below is a space for a title that will appear on the standard tables Then there is a date range for the tables It is often helpful to have a bit of historical data appear on the tables for comparison with the forecast Set the range by clicking on the appropriate box and replacing the years and quarters as desired Just below there is a toggle switch marked lt next to the text Standard Table List In the large field below are listed the standard table titles The Standard Tables are a set of tables that display a variety of series for one country at a time providing an in depth look at the forecast for any particular country or countries 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford E
22. 500 288 125 2031537 23 0 000 3053245 31 3247 3275 051 23367 2098 3463 553 3572009 3662814 760 403 Qz 365455 276 525 28027 3275 ziet 29314850 2025264 2047 376 2363027 3003 725 3200 398 3290 53r 33582 156 MSHZ 3534 313 3680 98 3795517 Os 2615 2082500 28028 525 2906 425 2979 100 2819 21 2070481 2394421 3115 033 J226 625 30122 0739 3418 005 3522 487 36165 221 3714 635 3325272 Q4 2699 100 27 1525 2839 100 2905 175 2880 575 2021 672 2090 7268 30230231 3144 4G2 3251 355 3344 525 1443 994 3548 760 3638 240 37412909 3352 911 Taral 1067573 1098950 11234 08 11523 90 11651 90 1130638 11448 12 1191040 12396 46 12851 63 13240 19 13621 36 1403685 1442148 1480T 6T 15243 10 Average 2605 931 274T 375 2823 19 2880 75 2912904 2826 748 2862031 2977 620 3035 116 3212 906 3310048 3405 341 3505 212 3605 370 3701216 3810 776 Choe 3 B4 254 2 78 2 03 1 11 2 56 1 25 4 04 4 18 3 67 3 02 2 58 3 05 274 2 68 2 54 i l d For Help pes FL NUM OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Click the run model option and select the latest database you have By default the variable data screen starts with real GDP for the US from the selected database Each column of data represents one year
23. 64 ton er uw sone nn LELA n 4 4 au s fou 15 toi zp vue sees gt II 24 5 44 aa taf gt 1 31 t4 1 44 1 2 97 ie 1a 0 e y nu to au 1 s p 1 41 1 11 4 14 a Lu LELE ad 4 8 fo au 1 74 195 04 1 t s ad tow 7 43 v 1 27 7 48 m tu 1 14 A 9E am LH a m ives 1 59 rn in 3 94 E Von tar Lu m y 4 7 1 74 ann a 1 per 1 1144 i 5t s s eo o se 3 44 i n 144 are 1 54 qu In n 4 2 94 171 1 a2 6s H t4 m s aus 1 1 ra ate In ae T 65 t tu ta ttd 1 97 1 24 au t s tib 4 9 n 64 ee elt see 1 ou 1 44 1 9 t tu s i aa n t4 32 1u u o r iv 1 44 1 3 5 1 au s t 5 11 1 44 5 94 f An tw tia tat am LR i 1 91 a 3 92 A r o 9 14 an 47 77 3 74 Lu 13 Ln py Lu Im zu m y s n 1 99 AS 87 aves 1 s n eu 4 et ace su t 4 1 51 ain a 1 ia wn n n te eu 5 44 ave st am Hu LLE n iw ue m 36 eu 4 11 54 an 5 11 4 14 au nu 1 ia nu 14 u eu i u 5 15 4a 1 un tar iw 1 iet 1 9 27 4 62 9 44 24 Sle ear 1 58 n 95 1 31 1 16 e t 1 4 44 1 44 9 95 au 1 54 4 06 1 t 1 24 14 41 ti itt LHN 34 i P t 1 aut 56 11 1 145 ao n 3 14 a ii 3 1 94 to IB an 953 7 A Gu 1 4 wn ive i 7 9 en 4 08 In a to Im 4 43 m e A an Ai 79 n tis 14 it u 54 to 4 15 in M 1 te net m n tar bis r tu to 4 15 1 144 144 3 1 1 61 1 4 fpa LE LI 11 tu to 4311 tas LET T tus 1 6 1 St seer 1 Iu En 1 34 1 p t s o e i et 1 1 1 Hj P r 21 gt an s au 1 16 5 it 3 72 n
24. 750 2699 100 771 525 2833 100 2205 175 2880525 28021672 28098 728 3023031 3144462 3251 355 3344525 12443 3894 32548 760 M Total 3820 650 10048 85 10301 10 1067573 10583 50 11234 08 1152330 11651 98 11305 50 114438 12 1151040 1275646 12651 63 1324019 1362138 1400605 F Average 24T2 662 2512212 2575 275 266253 2TT 3T5 2823718 2280 375 2812 94 2826 46 2852031 2077620 20990 116 32125068 2310 048 MEHI 3208212 X 5 Chga 0 75 1 60 2 5 354 2 2 T8 2 03 1 11 2 96 1 25 4 04 4 08 ZET 3n 2 B8 305 o M tj For Help press FL HUM 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Click on another option say Q on Q Changes This will alter the data displayed to the quarterly percentage changes of the variable To see a larger version of the graph click on the graph icon in the toolbar at the top of the page just above the pulldown arrow for data transformations i oxtord Economics Global Macro Model eR L1 pe info Beteeve ave ie fohe Selo Advanced Von peu E X C us ld cod Y C nowiLatest Dase yuniidb las Variable o au L E w 0 Chang Germney Cenaueptian privnir reni Tio O nn Q Changes F Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted P an P Changes 3g EE SS a 4p p E1446 pp SS 4 pp 4 R g
25. a a graph icon on the top right of the top toolbar Click on the graph icon You will see a larger graph of the federal funds rate before and after the change with historical data differentiated from forecast by means of colour Is iUbtord Economics Global Macro Model Ag pie pole Betieve Save Gie Gove Selbe Advanced Window ben 8 Xx Dl 5 om HR YME cCnowitatest Dasequnil db ge Varabe ml United Sinia REED Feiern funes rate SS Lawn Valen Federal funds rate 95 Levels 1 1 E 1 a 1 a 1 a 1 zr fH Fa aT 1 fill 04 For Help press FL eS OXFORD ECONOMICS HEB Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide If you click on the large graph please choose a spot where the forecast is flat at 4 a double vertical arrow will appear centered on the new line for the series Hold the left mouse button down and move the mouse up or down You will see that you are pulling the graph along By performing this operation on various time periods you can visually create the path you want companies fiola Marra Bode W amp De Info Remee Saye Dhe gohe Setings Advanced Window Heb DG BRN Cessna eid dee emu jm mL unde States RIL Federal Tunds rale m irava Federal funds rate 58 Lev els ta A OOS POM ZI zu 11 UT 21713 For Help press FL Then click on the graph icon and you will see that your changes have been read from the larg
26. all the rows of data that follow and it must be named TO OEFNOWS32 DATA If it is necessary for data to be found from more than one sheet in the workbook then the format would be duplicated and the range names would have in the first instance a 1 appended to them in the second a 2 and so on 11 3 Examine Change Coefficients The parameters that control the simulation process may be examined and adjusted if desired After clicking on Examine Change Coefficients the following screen will appear Coefficients Constraints Coeff No 1 Hax no of tterations allowed in any peroc Current Value 60 New Yalue 60 cone The boxes show the coefficient number its purpose and its current value which is repeated in the box labelled New value To change the coefficient click on the New value and replace it with the desired number To switch to another coefficient click on the Coeff No box and replace the value in it then press the Tab key or click on another box Alternatively click on the pull down arrow next to the description of the coefficient s purpose to see a list of all of the descriptions and select one of them Some of the coefficients are used to control which countries and blocs in the model are to be solved These coefficients are set when you choose either all countries on the solve screen or make a selection from the list of countries if you do not choose all countries Key coefficients that the user might wish to alter are
27. copy of the selected tables for each of the individual countries in the model While this will do no harm the listing generated will be quite long and the process could take quite some time OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide E IPTABLES TAB WordPad O nisil aia al iei 9 JUN1 DB TEST TPT United States 30 07 2009 at 2i39 pm OVERVIEW TAVLE 1 Annual 4 changes used except where otherwise stated GROGS DOMESTIC PRODUCT CHANGE ON PREVIOUS YEAR 2009 1 20059 2 2009 3 2009 4 North America United States 2 5S 3 6 3 s 2 0 Canada 2 1 2 6 3 1 2 2 Mexico B 6 9 4 7 0 1 2 Eucope Euro Zone 4 8 8 2 5 3 23 42 Germany 6 9 6 8 6 6 4 6 France 3 2 3 7 3 9 2 6 italy 5 9 6 0 5 4 3 3 Spain 3 0 4 1 4 4 3 2 Netherlands 4 5 5 6 5 7 4 6 Belgium 3 0 4 2 4 5 2 9 Austria 2 9 4 2 4 5 4 2 Finland 6 0 5 9 5 1 3 0 Ireland 710 4 9 4 10 0 4 0 Portugal 3 0 4 0 4 1 2 7 Greece 0 3 1 6 2 2 2 5 EU15 4 8 5 2 5 2 3 5 ux 4 1 4 7 4 5 3 1 Sweden 6 4 6 5 5 9 0 6 4 3 253 v Denmark 3 6 5 dn Li eS OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 7 Pre Defined Scenarios There are some pre defined scenarios in the model where changes to the model have been already made and will run automatically once selected For example a shock such as an increase in the world oil price can be applied to the model before tabl
28. current database names Enter a new name we chose HIUSRATE OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide CR oxford Economic Global Mocro Modell D ub PSE CuemeALantest Baseljuni dh las Vanriahie ja Hh United Stals RFED Federal lande rate g Level Values Federal hormek rale 95 Specify Changes Implement Cancel nn Ve Solve add a mm fa Lew els z 3 Change Pleare mitala Ue VL Neo AE allies Bars pun ells Changes Qulpul Dalabave Uploans ne Cancel h Inclode AB Counties AHN 2003 2004 0 006 Air ZWE 008 4010 011 ANA 2013 2014 2015 016 aif Q1 1733333 1 280000 1 000333 2 473333 4456666 5256657 3176657 8 180379 1 000000 4 000000 4 000000 OO 4 000000 4 000000 4 ao 1 750000 1 246667 1 013333 2 540000 4 900000 5250000 2 085657 01430000 2 000000 4 879227 3 188406 A T7247 4000000 4 000000 4 000000 4000000 4 Q3 1 740000 1 015667 1 44000 3 460000 5250000 5073333 1 540000 0 1000000 3 000000 4 000000 4318847 400000 4000000 4 000000 4 000000 4000000 4 Q4 1443333 335555 194656 3 9 3333 SMB 44965565 0 5065667 C1000 4 DUDDO 4 UODODO 4 UUDUOD OK OK OM A goDOUDU 4 Total BB5h5BbhE 4510001 540335 1284667 189585333 2 UfB5 OP POD 5253333 10 DUDUO 188 873 1550 25 16 295 16 OIO 16 XIDUO
29. l cpi 1GR 1 000000 A compound annual l cpi 1PY 1 000000 A year ago Q cshare cl gdp 100 cshare 1A 1 000000 A Nominal consumption share of GDP For Help press F1 Click on File and Save to save the template The file extension must be TPT Return to the main menu by clicking on the X to the far right of the grey toolbar twice Note The TPT file editor may be used to make changes to an existing TPT file Click on File and Open to find the appropriate TPT file position the cursor to the point at which changes are to be made and proceed as in the initial creation of the file It is also possible to edit the files in any editor such as Notepad but using the TPT file editor provided eliminates the potential for errors 6 2 2 Generating a table from a user template To create a table from the template choose Generate Tables from User Templates from the Advanced Options menu Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Tables from Templates Change Databaze C 0E standard juni db Change Output Filename TPTABLES TAB Standard Templates O 1_TPT Gross Domestic Product 1v TPT Consumers Expenditure Chosen Template V3 TPT Gross Fixed Investment COE standard test tpt ENERGY TPT G7 Sectoral Energy Overview GAS TPT Bas Demand Annual Changes COAL TPT Coal Demand m CARBON TPT Carbon Emissions s PHIMAHT TPT T otal Primary Energy Demand From ta OILBBD TPT Energy Demands Supplies a
30. or selected series from the list The fourth is to transform data series which will replace the series highlighted with the desired transformation of the same series while the fourth to transform and duplicate leaves the original series in place but adds the transformed series to the list In the example above we ve opted to transform the data as additional series The transformations available are Annual Percentage Changes and Annual Differences both of which produce series of quarterly changes calculated against the same period of the previous year Levels Q on Q Percentage Changes Q on Q Annualized Growth Rates and Q on Q Differences the Q on Q transformations also provide quarterly values but the calculations are against the previous quarter and then a number of ways of calculating annual values as Annual Totals Annual Averages Last Quarter Percentage Changes between 4 quarters and Percentage Changes of Annual Values Going back to our example we chose Annual 96 Chges which added two items to our list of series the percentages changes calculated against the year earlier quarter in US and Canadian GDP The data have appeared automatically in the spreadsheet corner of the page but the graph will not change until 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide you highlight the new series and click the Refresh Graph button at the bottom of the series list box The screen then appears like the one below Fi
31. which you wish the variable to be changed Set the range to the period you wish Then anything that is typed into the white box below will be applied over that range Say you enter the equals sign followed by the value 350 When you click on OK or press the enter key the screen will look like the one on the next page OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide ls Uord Economi cs Global Macro Model ex I NE Se Lewel Vals Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted 2006 2000 2012 2014 2016 i 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 202 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 30 0390 307 1100 309 0700 M6200 310 8200 310 5800 350 0000 3500000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 Q2 3055500 307 4800 10 2900 310 3900 3082200 350 0000 350 0000 3500000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 Q3 3057300 308 4800 310 2900 311 0800 308 9800 350 0000 350 0000 3500000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 Q4 408 1200 307 1400 315 0800 311 0000 303 1600 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000 350 0000
32. will cause a second line to appear in the graph in the lower left and you can see that GDP is lower in the scenario with higher short term interest rates M Data Facility File Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help America Key indicators Database United States Current account of balance of payments BCU 3 United States GDP GDP real V Levels hiusrate db Argentina Current account of balance of payments BCUS United States GDP GDP real V Levels jun db Brazil Visible trade balance BVI j Canada Consumption private real C Chile Consumer price index CPI Mexico Capacity utilisation model consistent version CUMOD Europe Earnings average ER AsiaPacific Employment total ET frica Government balance GB World GDP constant prices and exchange rate GDP All GDP real GDP GDP real world GDP GDP nominal GDP GDP nominal GDP Government expenditure total GEXP Government revenue total GREV Investment total fixed investment real IF Industrial production index IP Investment private sector business real IPNR v Change Database C 0E standard junt db Remove Remove All lt lll gt United States GDP real Levels United States GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices C OE Variable Levels 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Qi 2804 325 2839 450 2911 500 2838 425 2830 236 2856
33. world GDP GDP nominal GDP GDP nominal GDP Government expenditure total GEXP Government revenue total GREY Investment total fixed investment real IF Industrial production index IP Investment private sector business real IPNR Change Database C 0E standard hiusrate db lt United States GDP real Levels T E ff eS OXFORD ECONOMICS C OE standard hiusrate db Sector Variable Description V Level Database United States hiusrate db Select All Clear Clear All Transform Data gt Transform and Duplicate gt gt Toggle Variable Residual Toggle Variable Residual and Duplicate Change Base Change Base and Duplicate Copy Remove Remove All Refresh Graph United States GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices C OE sta Variable Levels 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Select the second last option Change Base and Duplicate That will bring up a dialog box containing the names of all the available databases Find and click on your starting base and then on the button labelled Open A second line of series information will appear in the upper right and a second set of numerical data appears in the lower right Make sure that both series are highlighted or both are not highlighted and then click on the button labelled Refresh Graph That
34. 01 GDP You can also make a variable a function of values in another country eg 05 GDP US to add 5 of each period s value for US GDP Ww xlord Economics Global Macro Model amp de inf Reeve Seve Othe Solve Settings Advanced window Hep B8x Du PF Ber C now L atest Basejunti db je L Variable IE E M Germany Consumption private real ic gt Wu Level Values E Consumption private mal Euro Billons 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted Lev els 2004 2006 2000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2004 2005 7006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 307 0300 307 1100 309 0700 308 2400 310 8200 310 5600 356 3109 361 0249 369 4410 377 9261 3066559 394 3701 401 2244 407 7900 414 3997 421 1157 Q2 3065500 3074800 310 2900 310 3900 3092200 3525298 3584278 362 5013 3707905 3802421 388 6663 396 1590 4028775 4094310 416 0667 4228109 Q3 3057300 3084800 310 2900 311 0900 309 9800 360 1515 358 9028 3642420 373 1609 3824359 3906230 397 8890 404 5219 411 0808 417 7433 4245165 Q4 305 1200 307 1400 315 0800 311 0000 309 1600 358 5699 359 3201 3652215 375 5507 366 5505 3925237 399560 406 1553 412 7375 419 4265 426 2275 Total 1227430 1230210 1244730 12430720 1239180 1392 131 1435462 1453990 1487944 1575155 1558469 1687979 1614780 1541039 166 636 1594671 Average 3068575 3075525 3111825 3101800 3097950 3480328 3588654 3634975 3719860 3812887 3896173 3969947 4036950 4102598 4169091 4236677
35. 1 8 a z 3 5 12 23 3 27 2 538 i 7 89 0 39 IIT 5 3 65 i4 7 65 7 34 35 6 1 n5 4 I 2 42 2 71 44 42 04 286 72 12 09 2 37 i a7 e i 35 27 59 I 0 8542 1 75 5 59 20 428 20 82 10 24 4 485 a2 17 51 1 75 1 50 211 03 ii 1 50 1 26 5 69 0 35 1 60 10 11 2 40 0 58 97 33 2 75 1 48 4 83 TII 1 37 2 10 5 45 0 84 2 13 9 51 2 45 0 54 37 50 2 88 1 76 3 00 iv 1 18 1 82 6 06 1 00 1 90 9 27 2 293 0 37 36 z 9 2 08 2 55 1 2 76 1 74 5 5 34 EB H E1 sz 0 91 i z 9 2 1 Z T7 IT j BS amp 5 na a 40 4 amp 4 III 1n J B53 5 82 52 20 34 Tkl EO 21 08 7 48 4 10 T4 15 Iv 2 11 a r 4 87 2 31 0 38 p 33 0 41 0 08 6 43 1 34 1 45 For Help prexs FL First will be the standard tables we selected for the US and Germany If you scroll down a few pages you will see the standard difference tables for those same two countries These tables calculate the percentage differences in the selected variables between the two bases The tables are stored in an ASCII file HIUSRATE TAB which can be printed if desired This completes our overview of the World Economic Model The following chapters will provide more complete information on all of the facilities available many of which have been skipped over in this chapter Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 4 Changing Forecast Assumptions 4 1 Selecting and examining a variable To create your own forecast it will be necessary to adjust the values of one or more variables perhaps
36. 1 Maximum number of iterations allowed in any period Default is 40 2 Maximum number of variables to fail convergence before run aborted Default is 200 The model must be solved to incorporate the new coefficient values into the database Databases created from one containing altered coefficients will also contain those new coefficients 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 11 4 Add Remove fixes The first option allows the user to remove all fixes on a portion of the historic data on a database This is useful in setting up a database for a counterfactual historical simulation Simply set the date range desired check the box labelled Remove All Fixes click on OK and solve the model The second option is to remove a fix on a single variable the one currently shown on the variable change screen Again set the date range click on Remove Fix on Current Variable click on OK and solve the model This might be desirable if the user has fixed down an endogenous variable to create a new baseline and then wants to work with that variable able to react to other changes in assumptions Finally the current variable can be fixed to its current values effectively making it exogenous at those values To do this check the box labelled Impose Current Variable Values There are two choices as to how this is to be done If only the Impose Current Variable Values box is checked then the variable will be fixed onto its own residua
37. 14 49 a a a eee 1447 199 1494H ZI And Only zm zma ZI zITH For Help prezs FL Again colour is used to distinguish historical data from forecast data with historical data in blue and forecast in red After clicking on the graph to activate it the left and right arrow keys can be used to shift the graph backward or forward in time and the insert and delete keys can be used to add or delete years of data Click on Info at the left end of the toolbar at the top of the screen and from the list choose Info on current variable The screen on the next page will appear In the upper left hand corner of the screen are repeated the database the variable has been drawn from the country the variable pertains to and the series mnemonic The data source is provided next Then the equation is provided In some cases as in the example above the equation had been estimated in log form Ln X 2 c aL n y The equation is displayed in exponential form X Exp c aL n y as it is incorporated in the model The equation is followed by is a listing of the variables that are directly affected by this variable that is the equations for the variables on the list include some reference to the selected variable In some cases OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 77 Bie Edt View Window Hep FX De e Str C now1 Latest BaseWun1l db WD Germany gt Consumption private real an Level Values M GERM
38. 2313 12 841667 13 85313 2007507 T 710001 0 5263333 3250000 13 087073 22 438602 20 139823 18 125564 15 00167 18 00141 18 00190 18 00218 18 001283 Average 1 350233 3 211666 4 963333 5 019165 1 927500 0131563 00 8125000 32467682 6240905 5 124883 4 531410 4 500467 4 500354 4 EDDAT4 4 500544 4 500483 5 Chga 19 81 137 75 Ed 54 1 12 E1 6 33 17 517 48 326 79 62 21 8 85 11 58 5 68 0 00 0 00 6 00 0 00 4 k For Help p Fi Num Let s impose a higher path for the federal funds rate from 2010 There are several ways to make changes to the forecast path The simplest is to overtype the figures provided Double click on the box containing the observation for 20101 replace the value with 1 then press the Tab key or Enter key or click on the next box Replace the value for 2010Q2 with 2 and click on the box for 2010Q3 replace that with 3 and then change the value for 2010Q4 to 4 To hold the series constant at the 2010Q4 level right click and copy the 2010Q4 level then highlight the area from 2011 2019 and right click and paste the values Click on implement to save these changes Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Is Uord Economics Hoba Macra Muret Ag Ge nfo Geneve Saye Qiher foe fetes Advanced Wreow hep zm x Du mo TM CAnowiLatest DasetjuntLdb E varabe an md imina Simen RFED Pederal fanda rate SE
39. 374019 1367136 14036 8 amp 13427138 14507 b67 15243 10 Average 2568931 27AT 375 2B33 719 2880 975 2912954 ZAAR rde 2883031 Pe Bo 3009116 3212906 3310048 3405 341 3508212 3605 370 r 1515 3810 7Th 5 Chia 3 64 2 04 2ra 2003 1 11 296 1 25 4 04 4 08 Gf 3 2 2 88 3 05 2 H 268 LH ME SE e i Oxford Ecpnomics Us a Caled Ecersamics a 11 1 Add Update Equations The first option is to supply new equations to the model These may be replacements for existing equations or equations for variables that are new to the model Click on Add Update Equations Adding Updating Equations Eqns from EQN File Eqns from PCGive File Eqns from TSP File Equation ctive n 380 n to 201 9 4 iv Behavioural Equation Identity Transformation For annual variable on non annual base give end 0 Please type in your equation Options Cancel OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide The three buttons for the top are to be used if there are equations stored in a file If the equations were estimated in TSP or PCGive click on the appropriate button and when the file opening box appears select the file of equations to be opened The equations will be read and assuming no errors are found a message will appear to indicate that the equations have been processed If the equations were estimated in some other statistical package or are from some other source then it is still possible to r
40. 40 0 00 0 38 0 63 0 60 0 50 0 44 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 41 03 zT 0 23 0 00 023 0 25 0 70 0 10 0 465 0 63 0 56 0 43 0 42 0 41 0 41 0 51 0 41 04 ore 043 1 54 4 03 26 2 00 0 23 0 53 0 63 0 53 OAT 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 1 0 41 Toul QG52563972 0 3064735 2566819 1 276772 5913975 2540773 0 13737682 1 671414 24822256 2308005 1 984355 1 722067 1 638741 1 639342 1 638407 1 640047 Average 01554243 D 07911838 06417046 0 3191231 TE 0 6501032 0 00434406 04178535 06213065 0 5770027 OAE 04324666 04026852 040298355 04008517 Q 4100858 5 Choa 263 58 150 58 511 07 149 74 53 63 MB 53 105 20 1116 67 45 65 7 13 14 02 12 82 5 87 0 04 n n0 0 05 q Li For Help press F1 HUM 4 2 2 Making changes graphically Variable values may also be changed graphically To begin click on Cancel to discard the changes made so far and return the series to level form Then click on the graph icon to bring up the larger graph of the series Click on the graph and a vertical arrow will appear on the line at the time period closest to your mouse position a Uord Economics Global Macro Model Ag pie pole Belee Saye Gie ove eto Advanced Widow bhen 8 Did FidROY MP o 0 CnowiLatest DaseNuniLdb ge varabe xl Germany Consumption private reni v Lawm Valen Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted aro adh Levels 330 321 310 90
41. 4645 3287975 3342226 3397350 306 5500 307 4800 310 2800 310 3500 3052200 2938707 25000754 2930403 203 5777 3070725 3136278 31584734 324 7896 330 1455 335 5520 341 1251 3057200 308 4800 310 2800 3110500 3053800 25185135 250 3754 254 3802 3014542 3087844 3151503 3208303 326 1203 33145884 335 9673 342 5287 305 1200 307 1400 315 0800 311 0000 303 1600 29065453 2310445 295 3333 203 3631 310425 31 amp b3 1 322 44T 321 4555 33285 8 338 3485 333330 Ta2 430 1230 210 1244 730 1230 720 1239 180 T1856 8910 TiBT155D 1175 313 1202 108 1241529 1257 PR 12B0 527 1301 31 1323298 1345 130 1357 327 68575 307 5575 3111875 310 1800 308 T8950 J56 PR 2590391 2835282 3 5271 307 B822 3143 3690 320 1305 325 457T 330582438 336 28256 3418315 OT 0 23 1 18 4 32 0 12 eed 2 14 1 18 2 2 45 2 11 1 83 1 66 1 65 1 65 1 65 TEE Fer Hep press l1 o RAI E E E Orafs De Inbox Microsoft Gut e Cocford Economics Us ud OEF User Guide SF s Oxford Economia Haver DLW vryr Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Finally you can adjust a variable by means of an algebraic expression involving one or more other variables As a simple example you might want to add a fraction of GDP to the level of consumption To do this you might enter
42. 5 33 56371 28 1132 575 49 03333 754 075 145 1951 75 525 60 075 31 49928 225 7254 774 3 10 475 57 825 18 375 39 750586 1 015556 66 7 14 89 34 87364 29 1138 496 751 975 146 6452 70 2 59 1 31 08663 225 0204 784 2 9 85 59 5 19 625 40 465549 1 055917 69 4 15 275 36 20077 30 1146 15 50 5 772 152 4376 79 725 66 625 30 18139 226 1347 787 5 3 35 60 1 19 9 40 72708 1 154277 am 15 6 37 0538 31 197701 1160 51 53333 781 15 157 8886 82 825 68 65 30 98793 227 4053 794 2 6 625 59 15 19 85 39 899824 1 08149 75 1 15 8 36 91467 2 1499 775 A341 FRE 276 165 29QQA ac TME 7565 33110657028 72320 252 anna Q16 BOTE 20475 AN 97654 1 2020120 750 16 1 28 cC54202 v M gt 4X DLXData BEA update DLX annual data OEF Calculations X Final series Final series 2 CHAIN CALCS EXCISE TAXES ffunds ffunds from dix yo 2 federal defense er lt gt Drawy AutoShapes N Aa CO 44 C Ready Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide It looks very similar to the WK3 version but there are a couple of key differences First a couple of rows have been left out those labelled Dataset source and Date of data More significantly the data are defined through named ranges The first named range must include the rows starting one above that labelled OEF Mnemonic through Variable Residual and it must be named TO OEFNOWS32 HEADING The second named range must include the row above the one labelled Periodicity through
43. 7 2 763 1448 86 234 2 588 2 049 1 813 2011 2 947 1 926 4 158 3 491 4 192 6 886 3 635 0 187 86 107 3 867 3 1 4 534 2012 3 547 2 278 3 123 3 626 3 777 5 427 3 742 1 755 85 136 2 967 3 260 11 481 2013 3 703 2 824 2 438 3 65 3 196 5 073 4 28 2875 83711 3 444 297 11611 2014 3 235 3 113 2 437 3 025 2 483 5 073 4 321 2 445 82 859 2 992 2 595 6 359 2015 3 01 2 627 2 171 2 885 2 56 5 079 3 717 2 397 81 289 2 628 2 259 10 006 2016 2 913 2 416 1 789 3 139 3 787 5 062 3 702 2 776 79 096 2274 2 342 12 353 2017 2 511 2 424 1 791 2 821 3 795 5 059 3 716 2 539 77 165 2 046 2 465 8 303 2018 2 221 2 327 1 965 2 672 3 004 5 069 3 731 246 75 508 2 267 2 334 T 015 Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 8 View and Download Data This section provides a means of collecting data of interest from one or more databases displaying it in either level or transformed form and downloading it to files that are accessible by other software packages To start click on View and Download data from the main menu That will bring up this screen s Dala Facility Fin Edit Optinns Font Other Settings Window Help E America Luiope Cus actin a Alina Wed nd Req indicators GOP end donec demand Finat and wages E Laheag mukri Trade and balance of pienti F Farsaracusd miai Peru sertes Heonng make Compar sacher D ewemment eccountt Ere Misia venies AN
44. 840 2966 608 Q2 2822 925 2872 850 2931 850 2826 962 2836 947 2872 834 3015 760 Q3 2828 525 2906 425 2928 100 2819 920 2843 564 2895 196 3072 025 2839 100 2905 175 2880 525 2821 671 2849 997 2924 990 3127 612 United States GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices Variable Levels CAOE zm zum ms wa 2 TUR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q 1 2804 325 2839 450 2911 500 2838 425 2831 537 2930 000 3053 245 GDP real CAOE standard hiusrate db Q2 2822 925 2872 850 2931 850 2826 964 2847 376 2963 027 3083 725 v GDP real C OE standard jun1 db 36 1 gt e IO E wh OEF_User_Guide Mi wh Oxford Economics Us Se Oxford Economics m Data Facility Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 3 5 Viewing the results in tables Another way to view the results of our forecast is in standard tables Return to the main menu screen by clicking on the Oxford Economics icon at the left end of the toolbar and then selecting Close Or you may click on the X at the right hand end of the toolbar at the top of the screen Then select the third icon Generate Results Tables A standard Windows file opening box will appear with a list of the available databases Select HIUSRATE DB and click on OK The following dialog box will appear OEF Tables Change patabase C ow HIUSRATE db Title OEF Tables C 4nowXHIUSRATE db From 2008 1 to 2019 4 Annual Changes l
45. 86657 1986 3 73152 3 43840 3 11364 2 12657 2 84292 d TOGS 7 538911 1 52455 1587 25738 0 786447 3 20581 1 48824 4 48176 2 129680 1 30636 5 07323 i388 1 48329 1 20655 4 09647 3 49951 65987 1 17652 1 20238 4 10919 1995 3 569057 1 83028 3 75329 2 352083 bul Fora nace 0 Hum Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide As you can see at the top of each column the database country and mnemonic are provided The V indicates that variable values as opposed to residuals are listed in the columns and this is followed by the designation of the transformation if any The starting date for the series follows then the date of the last historical period and the date of the last forecast imposed by the user The number of periods of data stored comes next along with an indication of the period of the data 4 is for quarterly Finally the data is listed Note if differences or percentage changes are requested that require data from before the start of the database the data will display as zero The three boxes below Save all information and data to PRN file allow the format of the ascii file to be altered Check the Excel Comma delimited box if that format is preferable for later use as opposed to the fixed field widths of the default format A comma delimited file will have file extension CSV instead of PRN Rather than the fixed width format shown above the ascii file created will have the individual values separat
46. ANY C Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Scasonally adjusted Historical Data 1980 1 to 7008 1 Data Source Haver Analytics 56 DESNCVCO GERMANY Equations Active Dehavioural Equation onVariable from 1980 1 to 2019 4 Q1 HB5H T 7019 4 C Exp 0 002115000 0 00000000E 00 0 00000000E 00 D Ln C 1 0 5000000 DILn PED Y 0 2000000 D Ln PEDY 1 0 002000000 DIRSH 0 3034000 Ln C 1 0 900000 0 Lo PEDY 1 0 003000000 RRH 1 0 1000000 Lo PENWE 1 PC 1 0 2613900 Ln 5 ICHTI RICH C Germany feeds into equations for the following variables FUCOD WORLD OC WORLD G Cio WORLD RS GERMANY PIF GERMANY TFE GERMANY GDP GERMANY IP GERMANY CL GERMANY DOMD GEHMANY C FURO 11 C FU C5 GERMANY TECHNICAL INFOHMATION atabase C unen Baseljunil db ID 0003 Variable lype Endogenous Residual lype Multiplicative FIX TYPES Historical Data Type 1 1980 1 to 2009 1 RFK FZOR KAARE Z No active Iranslormalions No active identities ZF gt phahhahahehahababaaiainiaialalalabebababebabebehebebebsiaiainininialalabelalebebebebehebebebebaisininininialeiallsbebelabehbsbebelabeisinininininialelebeblebabshebeblsbebiininininiainialabeislebielebishabisininininininileiailel For Help press F1 NUM where the equation is particularly long and or there are many variables directly linked to the selected variable all of the information will not be visible on the
47. AS d it ck 227 2008 pos 211 FIER ram file Pil uz Sl is x s Us us us 3 us 2728 D 0 0 000 0 000 OO 0 000 Pi D 0040 5 000 0 000 0 000 0 0 0 000 EJ 0 0 0 000 0 00 0 000 0 000 6 000 4 Oo 00 0 000 0 000 0 00D 0 009 0 000 2008 1 0 855 0 0412 0 195 211 881 0 434 0 5852 i 20 0402 0 0027 0 260 234 918 271 037 0 429 3 mi 0093 0 003 1 275 o 91 135 f 872 20 270 4 f 004 0 018 044 24 087 0 867 1 380 z 010 1 0 004 6 033 6 733 26 57 0 946 1 291 a 0 004 0 024 EPE pi 625 416 Q PiN 1 444 For Help press F1 Finally if the box labelled Coefficients is checked a listing of coefficients will be generated Country selection has no impact on this listing The coefficients listed are not the coefficients of the model equations Rather they are values that control the simulation determining the number of iterations allowed per period setting convergence criteria determining which of the country models will be solved etc The listing provides no information as to the role of each coefficient so we recommend viewing and changing these coefficients if you wish through the Other option which is described in Chapter 11 Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 11 Advanced Facilities There are several additional capabilities that are available These functions are accessed from the Variable Data screen which appears when the Run Model button is selected from the main menu In the toolbar at the top of t
48. Chge 0 17 0 23 1 18 0 32 0 12 12 34 3 11 1 29 2 4 250 2 10 1 09 1 69 1 63 1 62 1 62 jy For Help press F1 CAP NUM IB inbox Mcrosoft Out P Oxford Economics Us Uv OCF User Guide SF Maver OLXVG3 yryr 4 2 4 Accepting changes Once the user has made all changes desired to the selected variable it is necessary to save the new path by clicking on the button labeled Implement If the variable is endogenous the new values will be saved and the variable will be fixed over the range affected by the change If the variable is one of a set of key identities a message will appear to that effect along with information as to which component variable or variables will be adjusted to achieve the desired path for the identity variable For example if a change had been made to German GDP the following message would appear oefnow 37 You are fixing an identity variables affected are ST Cancel amp OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide As mentioned this is only the case for key identities in each country GDP or the unemployment rate for example If you change other variables that are identities such as nominal consumption real quantity x price deflator 100 there will be no warning message and the identity will be broken In general this problem is easily avoided since the model structure is consistent and we believe rational and the equations are well documented in the EQ
49. DA CHILE CHINA CROATIA CZECH DENMARK FINLAND GREECE HK HUNGARY INDIA INDONESI IRELAND KOREA MALAYSIA MEXICO NETH NORWAY PHILIPPI POLAND PORTUGAL ROMANIA RUSSIA SINGPORE SLOVAKIA SAFRICA SPAIN SWEDEN SWITZ TAIWAN THAILAND TURKEY RESTOECD OPEC EASTEUR AFRICA LATAMER RESTWORL WORLD G OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide The Variable Residual row must contain either the label VAR or RES for each data column Normally only variables would be present but the ability to read in residuals is also provided The rows labeled Dataset source Data of data YYMMDD and Source Mnemonic Transformation are optional and may be filled in if the user wishes to document the spreadsheet Periodicity must be present and set to 4 for a quarterly database 12 for a monthly database or 1 for an annual database No of observations is optional First period given YYYYPP is required and defines for each series the period at which the actual data start The row other than the label is formated as a number The Time series from row defines the period from which values may be given in the spreadsheet not necessarily the start of actual data for any series It is a number not a label or a formula Other period definitions in the same column are present only for clarity This row also starts the definition of the series data on
50. E 1 SIMMARY TTEMS AHNUAL PERCENIAGE CHANGES UNLESS OIHERWISE SPECIFIED CUN SHE BS HEAL FERS SAVING REAL INDUSIRIAL OUNEHPLOY AWERALDE WROLE COMPERIT PROOUCER CONSDIHER TUTAL EXPENDITZRE DISECSABLE RATIO De PRODZCTION HENT RATE EARNINGS ECOHCHY IVEHESS PRICES PRICES PROFITS INCOHE A iw PHODUCI 2 0009 100 IVIIY c TEOY PEER ienr IP UP ER GDP ET CR PPT CPT COGIP YEARS REGINNIMG Ql 2068 2 23 1 26 1 80 1 11 2 24 5 82 3 35 59 25 50 37 3 80 19 10 2008 0 8E 2 30 5 44 2 56 10 z20 B 32 2 55 2 54 88 35 23 47 20 7 217 25 2010 1 05 1 73 5 82 0 46 1 24 9 88 2 40 0 55 37 70 2 51 1 65 5 51 PETE 1 22 4 54 0 22 7 85 1 13 75 7 567 24 D EB 1 22 2012 4 18 z 03 3 47 5 51 6 53 5 4z 1 40 2 81 33 68 0 56 1 n3 16 26 2013 amp 51 4 53 1 85 B 15 1 15 4 6 1 6 1 70 59 1 28 5 78 zd14 4 93 3 08 za 4 5 4 63 4 20 5 3 1 45 H 4 1 03 2 65 10 30 2015 3 35 2 68 0 73 3 48 3 86 4 26 amp B4 2 84 78 14 1 18 4 04 22 085 2016 O 22 d 51 53 20 18 21 45 5 08 8 41 TE 78 44 4 37 4 E3 12 10 z az 2 74 Bi 5 00 3 5 2 41 t 63 2 04 2 346 1 31 33 85 ae 3 117 5 508 3 78 48 74 84 34 35 7 38 2019 2 29 F 3 2 94 1 8 5 00 1 6 2 61 ii 2 14 2 l 200 i 245 1 58 20 54 4 53 3 05 2 50 73 31 T 1 20 1 50 II 1 26 3 33 2 48 2 05 22 538 5 37 1 53 1 97 76 37 7 87 4 27 f 32 I 0 2 0 28 1 31 1 3 18 6 07 3 64 1 21 78 53 5 46 5 23 5 20 I 21 54 J ET 3 22 5 70 E ET 3 17 63 87 51 1 238 1 53 221 51 2008 1 1 E 1 57 n7 7 65 32 15 7 97 I
51. Economics Global Model User Guide Countries Required in Tables Al Countries United States Annual Changes Japan China Eurozone oh a im United Kingdom Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Finland Greece Hong Kang OF Cancel EL 3 B tu A CSV workbook will be created automatically and will show standard Oxford Economics created tables as discussed in chapter 6 For each country selected there will be two tables of summary items After all the summary items tables there will be a list of difference tables one for each country and showing the differences to key variables in the model from before and after the oil price shock ype a question for help t X 3 ig ihi id We Reply with Changes End Review fe OEF Tables C now Handbook Example 10wpo db U S A ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGES UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED TABLE 1 SUMMARY ITEMS CONSUMEREAL PEFSAVING REAL INDUSTRI UNEMPLCAVERAGEWHOLE COMPETI PRODUCE CONSUMETOTAL EXPENDITDISPOSAERATIO GDP PRODUCT MENT RA EARNING ECONOM IVENESS PRICES PRICES PROFITS INCOME 96 96 PRODUCT 2000 100 IVITY C PEDY PESR GDP P UP ER GDP ET WCR PP CPI COGTP YEARS BEGINNING Q1 2009 0 814 2 336 5 081 2 809 11 072 9 38 2 646 0 71 89 516 3 112 0 728 12 492 2010 1 649 1 455 4 984 1 606 2 625 9 60
52. NS HLP files If the user has set values for a variable at a point in the future further than the first non historical period a warning will appear Imposing only these values will leave a gap in fixes for this variable do you wish to extend the fix back to the end of the last fix In most cases the answer to this question is yes Otherwise changes to other variables may cause movement in this variable in the unfixed periods leading to an odd jump in the series between the unfixed and fixed portions Once the variable change is implemented the user is free to select another variable to work on which might be from the same or a different country 4 2 5 Ex ante changes If the variable being adjusted is endogenous the user has the option of adjusting forecast residuals rather than the forecast values as explained earlier There is another option the user can set a path for the endogenous variable and have the software calculate the residuals that are consistent with that path on an ex ante basis that is before equation interactions are considered The equation remains active and will react to other changes during the simulation so the final results will very likely differ to some degree from the path set To do this simply click on the button labeled ex ante toward the right end of the toolbar Any endogenous variable changed while this option is selected will be made to the residuals rather than the values Note once selected the op
53. S Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Where the lists have been expanded the plus sign has been replaced with a minus sign Clicking on the minus sign next to a region or sector name will collapse that particular list again You may select one or more countries from one or more regions by clicking on them while holding down the control key Then you would select one or more variables from one or more sectors in the same manner When the series have all been identified click on the right arrow button in the middle of the top half of the screen We chose real GDP from the US and Canada Data Facility ERIS File Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help America Key indicators Level United States Capacity utilisation model consistent version CUMOD United States GDP GDP real Y Levels augl db Argentina Consumer price index CPI Canada GDP GDP real V Levels augl db Brazil Consumption private real C Canada Current account of balance of payments BCU Chile Current account of balance of payments BCUS Mexico Earnings average ER Europe Employment total ET Germany Exchange rate period average AXD France Exports goods amp services real X Italy Federal funds rate RFED United Kingdom GDP constant prices and exchange rate GDP Austria GDP nominal GDP Belgium GDP nominal GDP Bulgaria GDP real GDP Croatia Government balance GB Czech Republic Government expenditure total GE
54. Tables Change ata CAGE standard hiusrate db Title OEF Tables C 40E standard hiusrate_db From 2008 2 to 2015 4 Q on Q Annual Growth Standard Table List i Standard Tables Summary Items X changes Summary Items Cross Country Tables GOP and Components ch in Emerging Markets GDP and Components ch Bal of Pay in Emergi Personal Income and Expenditure Personal Income and Expenditure changes Trade and Balance of Payments Trade and Balance of Payments 4 changes Cross Exchange Hates Labour Market Indicators Labour Market Indicators changes Company Sector and Supply Side Company Sector and Supply Side changes B e os Inflation Indicators Government Finances Government Finances changes OF Cancel Options Public Finances UF only Click on OK Since we did not select the option to prepare tables for All Countries a box offering a selection of countries will appear We chose the US and Germany Click on OK to start the table generation Solution Tables Output by Area El Use Ci House to indicate your choice Solve for United States Select All DK Cancel OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide The tables will be brought to the screen in a Windows based browser E HilisitATE LAE WordPad Eie Eun vem reet Fomai et CEF Tables oow HIUSRATE db 7 3 5 TAHL
55. XP Denmark Government revenue total GREY Finland Imports goods amp services real M Greece v Income personal disposable real PED v Change Database C NOE augl db Remove Remove All Refresh Graph lt gt CAOE aug1 db United States GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices CAYOEYau Variable Levels United States SHE FSI Levels Canada 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3500 350000 Q 1 3133 525 3228 975 3274 975 3341 725 3231 350 3266 167 3359 453 3 Q2 3146 875 3240 625 3301 000 3353 825 3223 100 3283 704 3387 023 3 Q3 3170 800 3241 475 3330 275 3331 150 3233 603 3303 987 3412 793 3 340000 Q 4 3187 175 3265 175 3347 800 3285 475 3250 137 3330 409 3438 733 3 3400 Canada GDP real C Millions seasonally adjusted 2002 prices C OE aug1 db Variable Levels 330000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3300 307915 2 319521 2 325344 8 330753 2 323701 2 322331 7 3354552 3 310153 2 320511 2 328738 2 331023 2 322357 2 325116 7 338386 2 3 320000 313319 8 320914 8 330451 5 331363 0 321035 8 328869 1 341328 5 3 316419 0 322471 2 331372 5 328220 0 320886 8 332297 3 344525 6 3l 3200 310000 3100 300000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP real United States GDP real Canada Now there is information in the other three sectors of the screen In the top right block there is information on the variables that were selected including the country the variable mnemonics the variable descr
56. alance national necs dein egies Feder deireas purehases real GEDC Federal defense purchases nominal ka SOLVE zu ROO 2006 2007 2000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2004 2005 2006 200F 20S 208 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2r Ag 2019 Q1 265 200 2716 950 2004 325 2009450 2911 500 2038425 2031537 2930000 MSMS 317347 3275 051 23367 208 3463 659 3572008 36628014 3763 40 Qz 2658 550 2r35 525 2027225 2072850 2991 650 28026954 2047 376 2963027 3083 725 32003398 MW 3382 156 3495 942 3594 313 3603 308 3796 51 03 2682175 2762500 2828 25 29054125 297B 100 2019 521 2070481 2334421 3115033 3226 625 2322 078 3418 005 32522 487 J615 221 3T14 635 J875 272 Q4 2693 00 271 525 2839100 2905 175 2880525 202160 2 2090 728 3023001 3144462 3251355 2344 525 2443 924 3548 760 3634 940 3741 5909 3852311 Total 10575 73 10989 50 11224 08 11523 50 11551 98 11305 36 11448 12 11510 46 12356 46 12051 63 13240 19 13621 36 14036 85 14421 40 1480T 67 15243 10 Average 268223 274T 375 2823719 2890 575 2012504 2826 T4 amp 2862031 2077620 3050 116 3212 206 3310048 HHI 3500212 3505 370 FHE 3810 776 amp Chae 3 54 2M 2 78 2 03 1 11 2 96 1 25 4 04 4 08 3 67 3 02 2 88 3 05 2 4 2 68 254
57. as shown below Periods for which no variables show changes above the threshold are not shown as are any variables that have no change above the threshold over their entire range OXFORD ECONOMICS K Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide EB nisiL OUT WordPad De dt yew quet Pomat Heb Digs gi SIC aj ies Hase file il used Far differences CIXMWCRLEAXPUSLIT JLCBAL MAYIL DH 12 05 2009 21 24 48 Data in file 1980 i t 29018 4 forild2223 vVAriablea Variable t diffarancas greater chan 0 00 from basa fila ll 2006 1 ro 2012 14 amp difference 1001 1002 1003 1004 19008 2006 From File 11 GDF IB re IF TIPNR IPRE us ua u3 ua u3 03 z008 1 6 000 6 000 6 600 0 000 6 000 6 000 Fi 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 3 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 3 0 009 0 032 5 000 0 000 0 009 5 2000 2008 1 0 113 5 2246 5 145 D 21E 0 378 8 27 z 0 176 8 321 D 1ED 0 503 0 270 8 15 3 9 205 0 721 130 0 787 1 248 0 276 4 0 129 OG hhh 0 016 1 489 FRU Aaahh 271 i 9 151 0 905 p oDi 1 976 2 893 2 954 a 0 239 0 512 0 022 2 088 2 064 2 059 3 0 271 0 529 0 034 1 839 2 479 20i 4 0 292 0 555 0 028 1 748 2 245 2 588 2011 1 0 304 0 8494 0 070 1 776 2 2454 2 442 ri 0 2853 6 848 25 0583 1 783 2 205 2 530 4 z l 0 598 0 069 1 777 2 183 2 802 4 0 243 0 511 0 0TT 1 773 7 105 7 657 2012 1 90 233 0 454 NT 1 745 i 069 1 673 i 0 235 0 425 0 058 1 765 2 041 713 3 0 241 0 405 085 hake 2 034 753 1 0 251 0 407 0 074 1 904 2 055 T
58. ative The relative size of the variables must also be considered in setting the magnitude of the ratio OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide The saving rate is almost certainly a number between zero and 20 for most countries while the level of C is likely to be much larger To enable the model to converge on the fixed data in a relatively small number of iterations the ratio must be fairly large in the case of the US it works out to be 10 Enter the ratio and click on Add to transfer the information to the clear field to the left of the box More than one instrument can be chosen for a particular target variable say if you wanted to fix a path for GDP and distribute the impact proportionately among the major components The multiple instruments with their ratios will be collected in the field When all have been determined click on OK to return to the Add Remove Fixes box click on OK again and then solve the model Imposing Values Using Other Variables Instrument OXFORD ECONOMICS
59. be required to be sure that the data are corrected assigned to individual cells The Vars by Row option will transpose the file so that the time periods go across the page rather than down The Reduced Format option creates a file that has dates as the first row or column of data and country and mnemonic names have been combined Access DB format creates a CSV file formatted to OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide be imported into Access Note these choices can all be applied in combination The box labelled Save selection info to SEL file will store the information about the variables selected country variable name transformation and the database name Any variable calculations will also be saved Click on the box labelled Update corresponding PRN file automatically if you would like to save the variables whenever you click on the Update Datafiles box after a model solution see Chapter 5 The PRN file could then be linked to a spreadsheet that could produce customized tables whenever desired 9 5 Retrieving a PRN CSV or SEL file You can retrieve the information on variable selection from a PRN file or SEL file that has already been saved To do this choose Open from the File menu on the Get Data screen A file opening box will appear listing by default all files in the directory where the Oxford Economics software is stored with extension SEL However you can use the list box in the lower left corner
60. by names of several more tables that are specific to one of three single countries the UK the US and China In order to print Standard or Cross Country tables or both it is necessary to click on the appropriate check box es to the right of the table list To the right of the date range is a pull down menu of possible kinds of percentage changes to be calculated if quarterly tables are to be produced The default is for annual percentage changes which are changes from the same period of the prior year but you may prefer simple quarter to quarter percentage changes or quarter to quarter changes expressed at an annual rate Below the check boxes for Standard and Cross Country tables is another labeled Difference Tables lf this box is checked a table of the differences for key variables between two databases will be created Note there is one standard difference table for each country When you select difference tables you will be prompted with a standard windows file opening box for the name of the database to be compared against It is possible to create Difference tables at the same time that Standard and or Cross Country tables are being created 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Choosing Options brings up the following screen Options Annual Data Only The user may specify the Annual start Q to switch between calendar years start Q1 or fiscal years e g start Q2 in the UK As you might expect t
61. cast period the residuals are set according to the forecasters judgment By default the data are displayed in their level form However several transformations are available There is a list box to the right of the variable name list box which displays Levels when you start Click on the down arrow to the right to see the available transformations L9 Uxtord Economics Global Macro Model Ge ino pereme Sape Qie gde Sete Advanced Wires fe 0x Dg id us m 7 e CnowiLstest Daseljunti db jiz Varabe E xL Untied States Gne GP reni 2 ka Arnan Chomp Aamen Dilferencon COP real UST Chained Billions 2000 n 55 n x changes ona Annual Growth D on 0 Differences 4000 Lew els 1332 l 1335 1230 2001 l 2004 l 2007 2010 l 2013 2016 2013 2001 2002 003 J004 2005 2006 2005 20808 2008 2010 2011 20124 2013 2014 2015 2015 Q1 24158900 AS 2531 500 755 900 2718 250 2904 325 2633450 2911500 2838425 20231537 2920000 23053245 3173247 35 051 33672098 463 553 K OF 640 2507900 2553 175 260 550 735 525 2022 325 28 2850 2931850 280260361 204 376 2963027 3083725 3200 3980 3298 537 3302156 HEM X Q3 Mal 2522605 2599675 Jed 175 Ib 500 2026 525 2906425 2928 100 2813321 2070481 2934421 3115033 3226625 3322073 318 005 32522407 M Q4 ITA 2523 950 2616
62. conomics Global Model User Guide Clicking on the toggle will replace the text beside it with Cross Country Table List and the titles of the cross country tables will be listed in the field as shown on the following page The Cross Country Tables which will contain only annual data each display a particular variable for all countries providing an easy means of comparing the forecasts of more than one country OEF Tables Change Database lt E XH Ow SJun 9 qunil db Title DEF Tables E XNOwSJun S qunl1l db Fom 2008 1 to 2011 4 Annual z Changes Cross Country Table List I Standard Tables CONSUMERS EXPENDITURE Cross Country Tables GROSS FIXED INVESTMENT CONSUMER PRICES a Difference Tables INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IMPORTS OF GOODS VOLUMES VISIBLE TRADE BALANCES CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES ES AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES ANNUAL x CHANGE SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES All Countries LONG TERM INTEREST RATES SHORT TERM INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS LONG TERM INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS 3 OF Cancel Options COMMODITY PRICES The user selects whatever tables desired from either or both lists by clicking on the choices while depressing the control key The first selection offered on either list is all of the tables Note not all tables are applicable to every country For example in the Standard Table List after All Tables are 16 tables common to all of the large country models followed
63. duals can be calculated These are useful both in checking the accuracy of the equation and as a guide to setting residuals in the forecast period However if you wish to restrict the range of your equations you may do so by preceding them in the in the EQN file with a line containing the letter Q and the date range in the following format Q YYYY P YYYY P The range will apply to all subsequent equations until a new range is encountered oimilarly if you wish to force an equation to be an identity it should be preceded by a line that starts with anl The may be followed by a date range as above if desired Only the equation directly following the line will be affected It is also possible to force a variable to be a transformation which means that instead of being solved during each iteration it is calculated only once for each time period before the iterations begin This type of equation is used by OXFORD ECONOMICS forecasters in some cases to calculate historical values that are determined by other variables in the database or to manage the forecast of residuals or exogenous variables This is done by replacing the Q or with a T in the line before the equation However it is not recommended in general for client use Note The equations in the file will be added to the model for whatever country is active on the Variable Data screen If you want to apply the same set of equations to more than one country you will add them to the fir
64. e 3 4 Viewing the results graphically Now that our new scenario is complete we will want to examine the results One way is to compare a key series from the starting and new databases graphically To do this click on the second choice on the main menu screen View and Download Data That will bring up this screen Data Facility aAA File Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help America Key indicators Level Database Europe GDP and domestic demand AsiaPacific Prices and wages Africa Labour market World Trade and balance of payments All Financial indicators Personal sector Housing market gt Company sector Government accounts Energy Miscellaneous variables All Change Database C OE standard jun db Remove Remove All Refresh Graph lt gt start E 42 Microsoft Office me OE standard E3 2 Microsoft Office E ds E oefnow32 The two boxes in the upper left half of the page contain a tree structure to organize the data series in the model first by country region and the second by economic sector Click on the sign next to America in the first box to expand that part of the tree into the countries in the Americas Highlight the United States Then in the second box click on the sign next to Key indicators and highlight GDP real GDP by default the series are arranged alphabetically by description In this instance GDP real is the descripti
65. e by clicking on the Change button next to the default name The same file opening screen will appear You can select a database that already exists remember that it will be overwritten by your new solution or enter the name of a database to be created in the file name field above the list of existing databases The Options button will bring up a dialog box that will allow you to control the solution in a number of ways Solve Options Storage Dates 11980 1 2019 4 Browse Run File Before Solving Don t Solve Just Create Base Don t Recalculate W TAPAT base year values Hin No Cycles multi models only Max Mo Cycles multi models only Dates for data transfer across databases multi models only F OR Use following se ft w pos f based periods per year At the top are date range entries for the database storage period Short term baseline databases have historical data beginning in 1980 and a forecast period of five years However the databases are fairly sizable and the user may wish to crop them to save disk space If you decide to shorten the storage range be sure that the range includes the year 1995 to supply data for lags used in the equations and to facilitate data display and table generation Once a database has been shortened databases that are created from it will also be short It is not possible for the user to lengthen a database The box labeled Browse Run File Before Solving should be ch
66. e database without necessary lags it will fail Allow at least 2 years from the beginning of the database before you solution period Note Equations added to the model are permanent in the sense that they will be included in any databases created from the database to which the equations were added Thus you can add or change equations and then run model shocks to check on the equations properties without adding the equations for each run However the new equations will of course not be in the next release you receive from Oxford Economics so if you wish to keep them they will have to be added again Thus it will be very important to keep the file of equations or if you entered the equations directly the run file 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 11 2 Add Update Variables When updating values for a large number of series for example when new national accounts data are released it is possible but cumbersome to use the variable change screen for each in turn However there are several formats that can be used to update quantities of data quickly It takes a bit of time to set up initially but worth the effort if the data set will be updated frequently After clicking on Add Update Variables a Windows file opening screen will appear In the lower left corner a pulldown menu lists possible file types The most common type of file to use and the one used for most of our own updating is a spreadsheet file
67. e graph and are now reflected in both the data and the small graph Oe OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide LB oxtord Economics Global Macro Model Ag Ge iuo Geneve Save Qe dove leima Advanced Wreew hep E Du d c d Y M CAnowiLatest DaseljuntLdb E variable jen xl Unid Statem F FeFFTI Feder funds rin ee Level Values 7 Federal funds rate Specly Changes Impinment Cancel SOLVE Lewels 2007 2000 2009 2010 2011 202 2013 3004 200 2006 FII 2008 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2017 Ang amy 01 1003333 2473313 44566656 5 255667 3176607 Q 1833333 1 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 015504 4 000000 4000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 qz 1013333 2 940000 4 300000 5 250000 z 0B6Gb7 0 1430000 2 000000 4 914729 3054764 4 697674 4 000000 4 000000 4000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 Q3 1440000 3 460000 5 220000 5 073333 1 940000 0 100000 3 000000 23 20449G 4 272070 4 000000 4 000000 4 000000 3 000000 4 00ODOD 4 DOOUOD 4 DODUO Q4 19460566 33973313 5 246666 4 425665 Q5056GbT Q0 1000000 4 000000 4 000000 4 015504 4 000000 4 000000 4 O0ODOD 4 000000 4 OD 4 D0OD0D 4 000000 Total 5 402313 12 843667 13 85313 2007507 T T10001 0 5263333 10000000 15 035922 15
68. e period value per row and one series per column Unavailable data at the start of the series must be defined by the Lotus 1 2 3 NA function value Unavailable data at the end of a series can be denoted by the NA function value or left blank Blank or NA data in the middle of a series will cause the series to stop being read and should not occur Data can be numbers or formulas that produce number values Non data worksheets in the WKS file may contain anything as long as they do not contain the label OEF mnemonic else they will be taken as data sheets Here is a portion of a valid XLS data file El Microsoft Excel USData 4 Ele Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Ls 4 f ia m Sir LOS Toolbar Options US Final Data OEF Mnemonic GDP IP C IF IPNR IPRD GI GC ST IS X XS XGNF XFU M MS MGNF MF 10 QEF Country US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US UE Variable Residual VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VA Source mnemonic Transformation Periodicity 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 First Period Given Y Y 197 301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 197301 19 15 Time serie 197301 1076 325 49 66667 708 157 0274 78 075 77 025 30 10809 215 4929 712 5 5 225 49 9 15 45 34 31881 1 5 67 65 15 85 37 09577 1B 1088 775 50 066567 707 625 158 0173 81 25 73 125 29 02006 215 5937 724
69. e to have the software on your own local C drive for performance purposes G OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 3 Overview 3 1 The Process In this chapter we will take you through the process of producing a customised simulation with the Global Macro Model This will provide an overview of the capabilities of the system without going through an exhaustive discussion of all of the options available this will be left for later chapters The diagram below shows the process of creating a new simulation database from the base forecast JUN1L DB Starting database with historical data and ten years of forecast HIUSRATE RUN file of changes Solve HIUSRATE DB Simulation database with historical data and ten years of forecast Can be used to produce further databases if necessary To begin double click on the Oxford Economics icon on your desktop OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide m Oxford Economics Economic Models PE 77 File Model Data Tables Reduce Variable List Window Help 2 Bm X D g cmt versie gee OXFORD Ts v ECONOMICS Global Macro Model Run Model amp View and Download Data amp Generate Results Tables amp Pre defined Scenarios Advanced Options Visit www OxfordE conomics com 44 0 1865 268900 UK 1 610 995 9600 US OXFORD ECONOMICS For Help press F1 INUM The first screen provides access to four main ar
70. e without returning to the data lists To do this in the upper right hand box highlight the series to be transformed or to be pulled from another base Right click on the one of the highlighted series and a box of options will appear nata Facility Fin Fd pis Fort Other Settings Windnw Help FUT A Kam mda aca Lire Staha Capaciy uiiashion model ennsisteni version CLIBIDID Acgentra Lonzumer pote index CPA Brand Lomoamglron irra real C Canada Dinen accnunt of habcre of payments BCL Che Lunent account ol balance of paument BEUH Mencu Etme average EH puro Se etd Average PWD Toggle Variable Persia Annus Gf heres Fiance Exgpxalz gots b taroa isal logge varssble J Residual and Duphcate Level lal Federal hura raie AFED Chang Barat Chard 36 Chges Urited Eingdom GOP compan piecer and exchange rate GOP Charge Base atn Duplicate Conc Annis Greif Fate futna GOP normal GDF Copy Dare Dfferences Erigum GOF romina GOPE A Tak ET TE GOP real GOF Annual Acor ange Liuaki Dbowermen balance BG annual Last Quarter Crech Republic Beroemmeni eepencituns etal GES Annual Last Cuarter Chores Dania Gower lever Joel GREW Annual Value Chgset Friar ligats goods amp venmcsz real M Greene i Income personal dispnsable seal PEDI ha Change Dahme LEa T da Fiemeeee Ferran Al Riehesh Graph The first few options will allow you to select all the series on the list or clear all
71. ead them into the model by clicking on the first button labelled Eqns from EQN file and then selecting the file It is important that the file of equations follows some conventions The equations are to consist of algebraic combinations using standard operators and the variable mnemonics Four digit variable identifiers are also permissible but mnemonics are more convenient The equations must be in simple form That is the left hand side of each equation must consist of one variable which may be transformed into log form or change form It cannot be say the ratio of two variables Operators are dii Exponentiation Reserved words do not use as mnemonics Tyyp Time trend set to 1 in year yy period p and incremented by 1 each period If yyp is omitted it is assumed to be 701 Qn Period switch set to 1 if current period is n else O Functions do not use as mnemonics Note all arguments are to be in parentheses exp Exponential In Natural logarithm log Natural logarithm abs Absolute value dn Difference between current period and n periods back 1f n is omitted it is assumed to be 1 sn Sum between current period and n periods back If n is omitted it is assumed to be 1 H Residual G OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Blank lines in the equation file will be ignored A in the first column of a line indicates that the line is a comment which can be very useful for documenting the equations The i
72. eas of activity e Run Model As the label implies this button provides access to the Global Model It also allows the user to examine individual series both graphically and numerically and to change the forecast paths of any series Once all series have been altered according to the user s design the model can be run which will incorporate those changes and the effects of those changes on other variables into a new database e View and Download Data This button provides access to the facility for viewing and comparing a number of series from different countries and different databases It also allows the user to export data in a format accessible from other software programs e Generate Results Tables This button allows the user to produce a number of standard tables from any database e Pre Defined Scenarios This button allows the user to implement a number of standard shocks to perform scenario analysis One example is applying a 10 per barrel increase in the world oil price This will run automatically when selected and there is then an option to see the results for all countries or just a selection of countries Tables showing the differences to key variables after the shock will display automatically 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide In addition to the four main options there are four advanced options Click on advanced options e Design User Tables Templates This button allows the user to design tem
73. ecked if you would like to scan the file of changes that are being implemented Don t Solve Just Create Base allows the user to add data or equations to a database without solving the model a feature that is useful when building a new model or revising an existing one heavily when it may be more convenient to have separate run files that must all be implemented before attempting to solve the model Don t Recalculate WT WP WC base year values should be checked if you re doing a counterfactual historical simulation that starts before 2001 The remaining boxes are for cycling through systems of models a highly specialized application 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Click on OK to return to the screen where the input and output database names were set The box in the lower left labeled Include All Countries is checked by default If you prefer to solve a subset of the model click on the box to clear it When all selections have been made click on OK If you have opted for a subset of the model a country selection screen will appear Choose the countries to be solved by holding down the control key while selecting countries with clicks of the left mouse button The selected countries will be highlighted as shown below Solution Tables Output by Area EJE3 Use Cil House to indicate your choice Solve for United States Select All Cancel EE Click on OK to continue The model solution wi
74. ed by commas Most spreadsheet applications will read such files correctly and easily putting one value in each cell Spreadsheet programs can also read fixed format files but extra steps may be required to be sure that the data are corrected assigned to individual cells The Vars by Row option will transpose the file so that the time periods go across the page rather than down The Reduced Format option creates a file that has dates as the first row or column of data and country and mnemonic names have been combined Access DB format creates a CSV file formatted to be imported into Access Note these choices can all be applied in combination The box labelled Save selection info to SEL file will store the information about the variables selected country variable name transformation and the database name Any variable calculations will also be saved Click on the box labelled Update corresponding PRN file automatically if you would like to save the variables whenever you click on the Update Datafiles box after a model solution see Chapter 5 The PRN file could then be linked to a spreadsheet that could produce customized tables whenever desired 8 5 Retrieving information from SEL and other files You can retrieve the information on variable selection from a PRN file or SEL file that has already been saved To do this choose Open from the File menu on the Get Data screen A file opening box will appear listing by default all files in t
75. eeeeesaeaseeeessaaaeses Add Remove fixes Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 1 Introduction The Oxford Economics Global Macro Model is a quarterly linked international econometric model which runs as a Windows application You can use it to e Examine how economies react to changes in the economic environment e Produce your own macroeconomic forecasts e Perform scenario analysis e Extract quarterly or annual data for approximately 10 000 variables for use in other spreadsheet statistical or graphics software packages Every month or quarter you will receive a CD ROM or download the installation file containing an up to date database covering the past and the Oxford Economics forecast for the future The Oxford Economics software allows you to examine the forecasts in either graphical or tabular form The assumptions made by Oxford Economics staff economists in the preparation of the forecast may be examined and easily altered By altering Oxford Economics assumptions and running the model you can produce your own databases containing your own forecasts and scenarios Data from either an Oxford Economics or user developed database can be exported to other Windows based software packages or to an ASCIl file for use in DOS applications The most important consideration in the design of the software has been ease of use At all times the software tries to be self explanatory and to guide the user through the process of producing
76. el User Guide If you would like to reorganize the screen so that variables are grouped more logically click on Sort This will bring up a box of options for sorting the series Select one or more of the criteria offered to reorganize the list Sort Criteria x Please note this tacility does not do a full sort It will group variables as they were entered Cancel using the criterion indicated below I Database Mnemonic l Country M Variable Residual The button labelled Get Function allows the user to specify an expression to be used to calculate a new variable not in the database from a variable or variables that are in the database For example the user might wish to calculate the ratio of exports to GDP After clicking on the Get Function button this box will appear Function for New Variable If you wish to create a variable for filing or graphing which is not currently available please enter a suitable mnemonic This should be unique for the current region Maximum 15 characters please Cancel xsh Hnemonic Description Export share 0000000 Please enter GDP 1 DU function Type a mnemonic of your choosing into the first box and if you wish a description of the variable into the second Type in the expression to be calculated in the third box The example here shows the calculation for the export share of GDP When you click on OK the series will be calculated using data from the countr
77. er is to list only those variables that exist in at least one of the countries specified For example if we select the US and Canada and then expand the list for GDP and Domestic Demand the list of variables includes such variables as Consumer expenditure rural and Consumer expenditure urban But those concepts don t exist for either the US or Canada they can be found in the China model If we select either of the two restrictive settings the Chinese variables will disappear from the list Finally the setting to list all variables returns the lists to the default condition And as mentioned the restrictive settings will have to be reset if desired in a subsequent session This is because there is a cost in terms of the time required to create the customized lists any time the user changes the countries selected 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 9 The Alternative Data Facility In addition to the data facility described in the previous section we have retained an earlier version We ve done this because the data are organized in a different fashion which may be easier for some purposes As in the case of the main data facility the alternative data facility is used to gather data from databases Selected data series can then be graphed listed or exported to various types of files that are compatible with other software packages The data may be in level form or they may be transformed in one of several wa
78. es Vo Annual Chges 2007 3274 975 3301 000 3330 275 3347 800 2007 325344 8 328738 2 330451 5 331372 5 2007 1 42 1 86 2 74 2 53 2008 3341 725 3353 825 3331 150 3285 475 2008 330753 2 331023 2 331363 0 328220 0 2008 2 04 1 60 0 03 1 86 aug db augl db augl db augl db 2009 3231 350 3223 100 3233 503 3250 137 GDP real C Millions seasonally adjusted 2002 prices Levels 2005 307915 2 310153 2 313319 8 316419 0 2009 323701 2 322357 2 321035 8 320885 8 2009 3 30 3 90 2 93 1 08 GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices 2010 3266 167 3283 704 3303 987 3330 409 COE 2011 3359 453 3387 023 3412 793 3438 733 C OE aug1 db 2010 322331 7 325116 7 328869 1 332297 3 GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices 2011 335455 2 338385 2 341328 5 344525 6 GDP real CS Millions seasonally adjusted 2002 prices Variable Annual Chges 2005 2006 4 Q 1 3 35 3 05 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3 06 2 98 3 09 2 23 2 73 2 45 Canada Variahla Annus 197 Chaoc Am ioe COE 2010 2011 1 08 2 86 1 88 3 15 2 18 3 29 2 47 3 25 C OE aug1 db z A 19 28 AN fe LU In addition to transforming series there are options to show the equation residuals for the selected variables again either replacing the series data or adding additional items to the list Most users are more likely to
79. es and has been calculated as the computed value plus or times the residual which has been set by the forecaster Note if the box marked All Countries is checked the listing generated will be very large OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide E IM T OLET Word acl Fin Ent iw insert Format Help Da SL a jus B 14001 GDF 14002 TIF 14003 sc ITALY ITALY ITALY Computed BResidual Act Fcst Co mputed Residual Akct Fcst Computed Residuml Act Fcst anc L 323 6120 0 0000 aa223 6120 Loo 3414 0 537 107 5333 183 4630 L z64 IRA 3100 r 321 6154 OO UD46 J21 0200 109 00629 077b b 106 4000 102 Up 1 0719 10t 07RD 3 319 0310 o nann 319 0710 1n7 7572 1 9531 102 7000 121 0407 1 03230 167 23050 4 J12 175U Uu Du J12 1750 101 0t 0 9234 34 0093 18l 75 78 1 0215 lus G65HmIl 200 l 308 7262 z 0290 ana 5520 14 2085 1 2995 At TR 184 9657 0 97 7A LAO ANAG z JUg 33218 J unm J02 3219 uu 5ula U 910J 01 3440 17J3 534601 1 u42u 1UU U066o0 3 ji01 7173 0 0000 301 7179 Ba 4070 0 5403 81 2481 174 7873 1 0358 161 7573 308 7172 0 onn 3D1 7172 B D2z13 1 73560 81 3640 176 33909 1 0351 LIAZ 697 nin 1 301 7175 n nann Ani 71 75 Rn 4m 0 93170 81 283145 177 5558 1 0330 163 5014 r J91 fe Su 0 000 J01 5 72 0 Up Uatt U 5965 U1 33Jb 178 2400 1 0319 103 9307 3 301 9761 3 0000 301 6741 67 0209 0 93970 81 5375 17E 0069 1 0324 164 3833 5 303 0877 a annt 303 087 AT BAAS 0 9945 81 5451 1773 5381 1 0315 LAS
80. es are used to examine the impact of the shock on different countries and different variables Click into the Pre defined Scenarios option on the main menu and the screen below will appear Predefined Scenarios Choose any of the following pre defined scenarios to run After the solution tables will be displayed automatically 10 barrel increase in the world oil price 10 depreciation in the US against all other currencies 20 appreciation in the Chinese currency 50 basis point rise in the federal funds rate 50 basis point rise in the ECB rate There currently are 5 pre defined scenarios 1 The world oil price variable WPO is raised by 10 barrel from 2010 Q1 to 2018 Q4 2 A 1096 US dollar devaluation is imposed from 2010 Q1 to 2018 Q4 3 A20 revaluation to the Chinese yuan against the US which assumes that all other Asian currencies follow suit This is imposed from 2010 Q1 to 2018 Q4 4 A50 basis points increase in the US federal funds rate from 2010 Q1 to 2010 Q4 5 A 50 basis points increase in the ECB Interest Rate from 2010 Q1 to 2010 Q4 To run the oil shock click on the option 10 barrel increase in the world oil price Choose a name for the output file and save it and click ok The screen on the next page will pop up If you wish to look at results for all countries tick the box at the top which says all countries Otherwise select the countries you wish to include individually 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford
81. ford Economics Global Model User Guide values at your preferred levels or having the program calculate the residuals that on an ex ante basis are consistent with those values Any means of changing variable values shown in the following sections will work equally well on residuals Similarly any means of changing values will work whether the variable is in level or transformed form 4 2 1 Making changes directly The simplest way to make changes is to the values of a variable is to type them directly onto the data screen This can be done whether the variable has been transformed or not Still using German consumption as an example the data screen using the Q on Q percentage changes looks like this LB oxtord Economics Global Macro Model Ls Fle jie Reeve ave Que ehe Sette Ahmed Ween Hep BM D ER poH Y Clow Latest DaseijuntLdh len Variable im EL Coraumpiien prianie real Hr 7 ds am Q Changes Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted Speoly Changes Impirment Cancel n VE P on P Changes a 2004 2006 2000 2010 22 2014 2016 2010 2004 2005 2006 A007 A008 Fi I 2010 2011 2012 203 2014 2015 2016 An 2018 2019 a1 0 27 4 73 0 63 2 17 0 06 0 46 0 20 0 31 0 60 0 62 0 53 0 46 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 41 Q7 4 16 0 12 0 33 ord O51 0 40 0 00 0 38 0 63 0 60 0 50 0 44 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 41 a3 4 27 0 13 0 00 0 23 0 25 0 70 0 70 0 46 0 63 0 56 0 48 0 42 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 41 Q4 o
82. forecasts and extracting data An on line help facility is also available and Oxford Economics staff are always available to answer any questions and to resolve any problems encountered In addition regular workshops on using the model are available No knowledge of econometrics is necessary to produce useful forecasts Technical Support Oxford Economics Abby House 121 St Aldates Oxford OX1 1HB Telephone 01865 268900 Fax 01865 268906 G OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 2 Installation 2 1 System requirements The Oxford Economics Model requires a PC with the following l CD ROM drive or Internet Access ii At least 85 Mbytes of hard disk space iii 64 Mbytes or more RAM iv A pentium or better processor V Color monitor and graphics card vi Windows NT 2000 XP 2 2 Installation procedure From a CD ROM Place the CD ROM in its drive From the Start Menu select Run then navigate to the CD ROM drive and INSTALL EXE Then follow the on screen installation instructions From an installation file downloaded from our website The installation file will be a self extracting EXE file named GBLMACRLM5 EXE or GBLMACRLM10 EXE depending on whether the database includes a 5 or 10 year forecast Navigate to it and double click on it Then follow the on screen installation instructions 2 3 Using a Network At installation the entire software may be loaded onto a network drive However it is preferabl
83. graph other than where you imposed the spike Hold down the control key while pressing the left or right arrow toward the spike and a line will be drawn that interpolates between the first and last points When you return to the variable data screen you will see that the values on the line have been transferred to the variable data screen Note If you hold down the Alt key while pressing the left or right arrow keys the graph will be held horizontal 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 3 Oxtord Economics Global Macro Model EE Be file Believe Sage Quer Bove Selo Juanted Yankee pep 0 F Dus d T CnowiLotest DaseuniLdb as Variable B sz Germney Ceinsuepitinn private reni mo a Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted 370 Levels 330 321 310 300 za ZUUR al 1 0 fl For Help prezs F1 4 2 3 Specifying changes The third way to make changes to variables is according to specified functions To start return to the variable display screen and cancel any changes that have been made in this example Click on the button labeled Specify Changes in the body of the screen This will bring up the dialog box specify Function OF _ Cancel Cancel mw A mm There is a date range over which the change is to take affect Note this range will default to the full forecast period which may not match the period over
84. he box labeled Annual Data Only will limit Standard and Difference tables to annual figures if checked Finally the tables format can be adjusted for reading directly into spreadsheets When your selection is complete click on OK If you have not chosen all countries the country selection screen will appear Tables Select All Em Cancel Select the countries desired by holding down the control key while selecting with the left mouse button Then click on OK A window with the tables in it will appear as shown on the following page This is actually a Windows browser which will allow you to scroll through all of the tables created The tables have also been saved in an ASCII file with the filename the same as the main database name and an extension of TAB which can be printed later or pulled into other software such as a word processor OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide e Warws JANI TAB amp eje v v T u jJ zla ej z lol UG Tables CON Boe 35s AU ie usA TANE iO TIMUJ PTS qOSTIR UN QUARTTR ABPALISTI PISEENTAGTE CRRGEEI WEZI CUTESRQIST IPIT IPT CONTUMD REAL FERS AVIS JOL INDUSTRIAL WOOL AMTAE SOLE CONCIIT PROX COUTUMES TOTAL DGDO LTUI DIIPOQABCE 3ATI GDO PRODUCTION MINT FATE EARNISQ ICONE DVD PACES PRICE 7940171 TSC ui t PRODUET Leeeeed itr L4 iini assu nui 1 tw ua ESOFT ET nui umi opt IC tee 26 tm 1 3 Ai s 1 144 tu 95
85. he directory where the Oxford Economics software is stored with extension SEL However you can use the list box at the bottom to switch to PRN or CSV files Any of these file types can be read to provide information about the variables that were selected in their creation G OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide test SEL E testg SEL eurogdp SEL F eurozone SEL File name Files of type Selection Files sel d Cancel Once you have retrieved the variable list you can edit it adding or deleting lines If the variables in the reopened SEL file are from more than one database then the file will be opened exactly as it was created However as a special case if all of the variables were chosen from the same database the following dialog box will appear Database Options C ANOWANOV1 DB is specified as the base in chosen file Should this be replaced with current achive database 7 If you click on Yes then the database name in the SEL file NOV1 DB in this case will be replaced with the name of the currently opened database This will allow the user to update the series in a PRN or CSV file whenever desirable 8 6 Settings There are a number of settings that may be adjusted in View and Download Data according to the user s preferences They are found by clicking on Settings in the grey toolbar at the top of the page OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global M
86. he screen the third option is Other Click on this option which will produce a pull down menu C oxtord Economics Global Macro Model Wy re info Remeve Save le cole Settnos Advanced Window Heb zB x D ok Ed 5 BR Aae Equations irat Raseijunii dh ee ve ee Je xn United States en Add Uodate Venables Pan ES ane Copeman i Change Coe Pert add imemove Fines Banu Line ve Larei Values zl il LESS Chamasi Allens 4000 prius zeasanadly zasdpurslesdi ATTE J000 Jut J400 Lew els azuli 3i Fann RM z 2004 2006 2000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 214 014 AZUL ZUDZ A008 20058 2010 7011 2012 Aa 2014 2015 2015 mr ZU18 2019 Q1 2035500 2716 950 2804 325 2833450 2911 500 72838 425 2031537 2830 000 3053245 3173247 3275 051 3367 209 3468 659 3572003 3652814 3T758 403 Q2 3558550 2736 525 2822525 2872850 2971 850 2525 964 2847 376 2063027 3083725 3200 3 3208 537 3392 156 34585 542 3554 313 3688308 3796 517 Q3 3582175 2762500 2828525 2506425 2528100 2819521 2870481 205442 3115033 3225 625 3322079 34180005 3522487 3616221 37140635 3825272 Q4 25953100 27 1525 2033 100 2905 1 5 2500 525 Z85216 2 289825 302303 JIk 3251 355 3244525 34433904 354B 60 3638 340 3415909 385253711 Tetal 105 573 1096 50 11283 88 11527390 1165198 11306 8G T1438 17 119510485 12395 46 1285163 1
87. i a OXFORD eH ECONOMICS xm Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Oxford Economics 121 St Aldates Oxford OX1 1HB 01865 268900 01865 268906 www oxfordeconomics com 11 1 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION INSTALLATION oystem requirements Installation procedure Using a Network OVERVIEW The Process Changing a variable Solving the model Viewing the results graphically Viewing the results in tables CHANGING FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Selecting and examining a variable Changing variable values 4 2 1 4 2 2 4 2 3 4 2 4 4 2 5 4 2 6 Saving and retrieving run files Making changes directly Making changes graphically Specifying changes Accepting changes Ex ante changes Changing historical values SOLVING THE MODEL PRODUCING TABLES Oxford Economics supplied tables User Tables 6 2 1 6 2 2 Setting up a table template Generating a table from a user template PRE DEFINED SCENARIOS VIEW AND DOWNLOAD DATA Displaying data Defining functions to be added Transforming data Exporting data Retrieving information from SEL and other files Settings THE ALTERNATIVE DATA FACILITY Selecting variables Displaying data Graphing variables Saving data Retrieving a PRN CSV or SEL file LIST INFORMATION FROM DATABASE ADVANCED FACILITIES Add Update Equations 11 2 11 3 11 4 Add Update Variables Examine Change Coefficients cccccccecccccecesseeceeeceeeeecceeeseeeeeeeeessaeee
88. ill be no distinction between historical and forecast data 9 4 Saving data To save the data for the variables you have selected click on Save or Save As from the File menu Saving Options Save selection info Cancel Update corresponding data file automatically Include Description and Source in output Save all information and data to file File to have following optional format Yars by Row Reduced Format Access DB Format Save directly to Access Database Save all variables for all countries Save selected variables for all countries Save all variables for selected countries Save each selected variables for each selected sector Save generated list of variables and sectors 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Checking the fourth box labelled Save all information and data to PRN file and then clicking on OK will create an ascii file in column format as shown below LL PRA WordPad IB E EY PY Ix Saad 200901 804 62H24 EDHI A LRO i 550593 T30 535595 0 7 25E 39440 0 3 a4 1 1 831 D 41 456530 258009 16215 1 637 T1304 1 992185 1 39854 1 42706 1 48152 2 250305 153 3 21620 1 03438 5 865455 2 11042 T 72052 3 65956 B 48909 4 05547 4 T 92212 1 20247 6 86149 3 25096 5 97211 2 73508 4 510545 0 56105645E 3 62027 1 075625 1 225596 Err 17113 29151 1 20521 986652 1 73182 43840 3 11385 12651 1 84252 T8208 2 53851 52455
89. iptions the transformation if any and the database from which the variables were drawn In the bottom left block is a chart of the variables with the historical data distinguished from forecast both by means of a vertical line and the intensity of the lines The magnitude of the two variables are very different with the levels of Canadian data much larger than US GDP because GDP is reported in millions in Canada but billions in the US Click on the F5 function key to cause the graph to switch to different scales on the two vertical axes In the lower right hand block the data themselves are displayed in spreadsheet form The scroll bar beneeth the data listing can be used to display earlier data or data further into the forecast period 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide You can change the periods displayed in the chart by clicking on it and using the insert and delete keys to lengthen or shorten the periods shown while the left and right arrows can be used to move the display back through history or forward to the end of the forecast period Similarly you can move the data display in the lower right block forward and back through time by means of the scroll bar beneath it 8 2 Defining functions to be added 8 3 Transforming data Our example in Section 8 1 displayed the data in level form However it is possible to transform the data in a number of ways and to bring in the same series from a different databas
90. l That is the residual will take on whatever values are required for the calculation to yield the fixed value of the variable This is the most common way of fixing variables However it is possible to fix the values of a variable by using the values of other variables These other variables are referred to as instrument variables An example would be to set a path for the saving rate and then ask the model to impose whatever values are necessary on personal consumption to achieve that saving rate path To do this make the saving rate the active variable on the variable change screen and set its path as desired Bring up the Add Remove Fixes box set the date range and click on both the third and fourth boxes Impose Current Variable Values and Impose Values Using Other Variables This will bring up the following box Imposing Values Using Other Variables Instrument _ gt Add Delete Cancel Click on the pull down list next to the country and or variable name for the instrument In this case the instrument variable consumption would be C Determining the ratio is critical to this process For each iteration the difference between the calculation of the target variable and the value that period has been fixed to is multiplied by the ratio and added to the value of the instrument variable Since the saving rate goes down when consumption rises the relationship is an inverse one and the sign on the ratio must be neg
91. le Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help EEk America United States Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Mexico Europe Germany France Italy United Kingdom Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Finland Greece b Change Database C OE aug db lt 4 2005 2006 GDP real United States GDP real Canada Key indicators Capacity utilisation model consistent version CUMOD United States GDP GDP real Consumer price index CPI Canada GD GDP real Consumption private real C United States GDP GDP real Canada GDP GDP real Current account of balance of payments BCU Current account of balance of payments BCUS Earnings average ER Employment total ET Exchange rate period average AXD Exports goods amp services real X Federal funds rate RFED GDP constant prices and exchange rate GDP GDP nominal GDP GDP nominal GDP GDP real GDP Government balance GB Government expenditure total GEXP Government revenue total GREY Imports goods amp services real M Income personal disposable real PED v C OE aug1 db United States Variable Levels 2005 6 3133 525 3146 875 3170 800 4 3187 175 GDP real Annual Chges Canada Variable 2 United States 2006 3228 975 3240 625 3241 475 3265 175 2006 319521 2 320511 2 320914 8 322471 2 Level Y Levels V Levels Vu Annual Chg
92. ll begin While the model solves a DOS box will pop up in the applications bar at the bottom of the page If you click on this box it will open to show you the number of iterations that the model takes for each time period as that period is solved When the solution is complete you will be returned to the variable data screen You will then be asked if you wish to continue or update data files Continue takes you back to the main menu screen Update Datafiles saves values for variables specified by the user to PRN or CSV files which can then be read into other packages eg spreadsheets This is described further in Chapter 8 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 6 Producing Tables 6 1 Oxford Economics supplied tables To start click on Generate Results Tables on the main options menu That will bring up the following screen OEF Tables Change latabssmc E XN O0 w JuntlS squn1I db Title DEF Tables E XNOwSJun fNqun1l db From 2008 M w m2 fa Standard Table List All Tables i Standard Tables Summary Items changes Summary Items Cross Country Tables GDP and Components X ch in Emerging Markets s GDP and Components ch Bal of Pay in Emerging Mar Difference Tables Personal Income and Expenditure Personal Income and Expenditure changes Trade and Balance of Payments Trade and Balance of Payments 4 changes Cross Exchange Hates L abour Market Indicators Labour Market Indicators
93. multiple series are graphed the vertical line is on the earliest historical endpoint Once you click on the graph to make it active some basic keys can be used to alter it The Insert key will add years to the graph extending it into the future as far as there are data available in the database Similarly the Delete key will remove years of data from the graph The lt and will scroll the graph to the left or the right If you have multiple lines plotted the F2 key will replace them with the difference between the first and subsequent curves while F3 replaces them with similar percentage differences These can be useful in examining the effect of a change in scenario on particular variables F4 will return the graph to normal after invoking differences or percentage differences If two lines are plotted F5 will cause two axes to be used Since two zero lines would be confusing the zero line is omitted from dual axis graphs F4 will again return the graph to normal i e a single axis 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide CA Oxford Economies tad Bata Untied M Die Gat ptos Font Omer Settnos Window Heb nc L5 te v x c ATEST BASEWA Y 1L DE l Variable jer L E NM NR NM MR NM RR rA Germany GOP Constant prices GOP Annual S Changes GDP Annual Changes 6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GOP l Germany GDF United States Fo
94. n You will be asked to select the type of output to be created that is which set of option parameters to use for solid Normal or transparency For a word processor select solid Switch to your word processor application The remainder of this instruction is for Word details may differ for other word processors Click on Edit and Paste Special and Picture The graph will be placed in your document but it will be tiny Click on it and you will see the resizing points appear Click on the lower right hand corner and drag and the graph will be expanded That is how the graph just below was pulled into this document Other graphs shown in this document were imported as screen captures OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide GDP Annual Changes 2 4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP Germany GDP United States It is also possible to print the graph from within the Oxford Economics software To send the graph to the printer click anywhere on the graph to make it the focus Then either click on the printer icon in the toolbar or select Print from the File menu You may first want to select Print Setup from the File menu to set such options as the paper size and orientation If the printer is a colour printer the graph will be displayed as shown on the monitor With a black and white printer the graph will identify lines by line style solid dotted and so on There w
95. n the countries selected are listed However the equations are written using variable locations with series mnemonics listed below The same information is provided in a far more readable form in the equation help files and if you would like a complete listing of any countries equations we recommend browsing or printing these files The second type of information is a summary of the fixes that apply on all of the data for the selected countries The last historical data period can be identified by the type 1 or rarely a type 2 fix on the data point If the database is one that you have created by altering assumptions and solving the model there will be type 3 and type 4 fixes as well indicating variable values have been imposed for the future Note if the box marked All Countries is checked the listing created will again be very long The boxes labelled Differences and Percentage Differences provide a means of comparing every variable in a database with its counterpart in another database If you have made a model solution the starting base will be the default for the comparison database Otherwise the Base for Diffs will be empty and you will be prompted for the name of the base to compare against To the right are threshold values below which differences or percentage changes are considered to be insignificant The actual or percentage differences are calculated over the range specified and then listed in a fairly concise columnar form
96. nces calculated from the same period of the previous year The final four options are for annual data For annual changes the annual values are calculated first then the changes When the list boxes identify the desired variable click on the button labeled Add to End This will put a line identifying the selection into the large box to the left of the screen Continue using the list boxes to identify other series and add those lines to the end of the list If you want to place a series in the middle of the list rather than at the end highlight the line you would like it to precede and click on Insert instead of Add to End To remove a line from the list highlight it and click on Remove Your screen will look something like this 8 Oxtord Economics Get Data Untitled j L Pe pii Queens fimi Othe Serge Ardow peu O H D tel in Tx Cuowh Lmtext Dasetumay11 db variable esi La iy Untied States Consumers expenditure total bn chained 2008 5 C ia Level Values aor US YLE ew Lalest Baseyn Lib j cnr JAPAN WIL C Snow abest Bare Nunll db I JAPAM OVILE vno NLabisl Baser lub C us ML C unos Latest Doren ab GDP us WL Snow ales Bazeuma 1L dili GOP JAPAN VLC now tert Barexmaylldb Ix AAPAN VI C rss alot mmap Ti ill Uu VUL C Ano Latest Dare magi db Draw Graph Display Data Sanat Scale Dira For Help prezs F 1 HUM 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Mod
97. nd UK TPT The Oxford UK Forecast v Quarterly 09 fi 009 j4 UKFISCAL TPT The Oxford UK Forecast Fis UKHMAMH TPT UK Manufacturing Sector 2008 2010 USMISC TPT US Miscellaneous Indicators Annual USINF TPT US Additional Inflation Indicators USG VFED TPT US Federal Government De M amp Year Average 2008 2014 USGOYSL TPT US State and Local Governm HETAB_TPT Extra Hong Hong Details INTSUMAMF TPT Summary of Forecasts COUNTRY TPT Country Tables OK FINMOD TPT G6 Financial Satellites Model All Countries B FIHH DIT TPT GG Financial Satellites Model 3 SCANCTRY TPT Scandinavian Countries Options Cancel The database from which the table is to be created is chosen as well as a name for the ascii file that will save the table The default for the table file is TPTABLES TAB Click on change to choose an alternative filename The box on the left headed Standard Templates gives a selection of pre formatted tables which appear in Oxford Economics documents The box Other Templates on the right hand side allows the user to update a template table of his own design Clicking on Other Templates gives a menu of all the TPT files available in the user s working directory from which the required table can be selected Quarterly annual and 5 year average data are selected by checking the boxes in the middle of the screen while the user can choose the date range in the boxes alongside Options allows users to alter the start qua
98. odel User Guide EM Get Data C OEXTEST csv File Edit Options Font Other EAS Window Help E im Number Format Seda e SR pion EM Hee pasate Europe nited States Teal kr evels ollshock 3 AsiePacific Logos uem Decr Hrer Canada GD GDP real V Levels ollshock db 3 Affica List variables that are in all selected sectors 3 World List variables in any one or more of selected sectors Banking stress List all variables on base BP Personal sector Oil by sector Housing market gt Capital Flows Company sector Common Unused Government accounts Common Unused Energy All Miscellaneous variables Other All Full variables list Change Database C OEoilshock db Remove Remove All Refresh Graph lt The first option Number Format will bring up a dialog box to check whether very large and very small numbers should be expressed in scientific notation The default sets scientific notation on The second option is to switch the display of the series within each sector between alphabetized by description the default and alphabetized by mnemonic Once set each of these first two option will remain in force until the user explicitly changes them even if the software is closed down and reopened The remaining options are only set for a specific session They are used to restrict the lists in meaningful ways One is to list only those variables that appear in common among the countries specified and anoth
99. on and the GDP following the colon is the mnemonic Below these boxes you will see the current database listed Click on the Change Database button to bring up a dialog box that will allow you to switch to HIUSRATE DB Now click on the right arrow button in the middle of the top half of the screen That will cause the series information to appear in the upper right hand part of the screen the graph of the data to appear in the lower left part and the numerical data in the lower right as shown on the next page OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Data Facility File Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help America Key indicators United States Capacity utilisation model consistent version CUMOD Argentina Consumer price index CPI Brazil Consumption private real C Canada Current account of balance of payments BCU Chile Current account of balance of payments BCU Mexico Earnings average ER Europe Employment total ET AsiaPacific Exchange rate period average AXD Africa Exports goods amp services real X World Federal funds rate RFED All GDP constant prices and exchange rate GDP GDP nominal GDP GDP nominal GDP GDP real GDP Government balance GB Government expenditure total GEXP Government revenue total GREY Imports goods amp services real M Income personal disposable real PEDY Change Da
100. plates for results tables themselves and to decide specific table titles subtitles and data series and series descriptions to be included e Generate Tables from User Templates This button allows the user to generate tables from templates created by the user e List information from database There are several ways to list parts of a database that may be useful to the forecaster One example is a listing of variable values and residuals another is a list all of the historical endpoints for series It is also possible to generate the differences or percentage differences between two databases on a series by series basis e Alternative Data Facility This button provides access to the facility for moving data in or out of the system in quantity The data may be model series or calculations based on one or more model series In addition the user can compare data or data calculations between databases 3 2 Changing a variable 3 Urvtord Economics Global Macra Model Be inf Helie fave Ge gohe Seius Advanced kimie peu 0 A hs ve DL m i E T k ConowiLotest Dase junildb jis United Sintea GOP i OOF reni GOP real USS Chained Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted 3200 Speuly Changes Impirment Cann SALVE Lewals 2006 2007 2000 2009 2010 2011 e012 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 21 202 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2625 50 2716 950 2804 25 20 59 450 2911
101. r nap press 1 NUM The TITLE can be replaced by clicking on it and editing it as desired and it can be centered between the axes by clicking on the far right icon in the toolbar at the top of the screen The colour coded labels at the bottom of the page may also be edited and they can be repositioned on the graph by clicking on them with the right mouse button and dragging them to the desired location When the right mouse button is released the label will be dropped into place Double clicking with the left mouse button will cause the word Text to appear at the cursor position This text can be edited and repositioned to enhance the graph By default the variables are displayed as lines on the same scale which is shown on both sides of the graph To adjust these and other parameters click on Options in the toolbar at the top of the screen which will bring up the screen shown at the top of the next page The first four check boxes control whether the horizontal zero marker and the vertical forecast line are present whether the Y axis is labeled on both sides of the graph for single axis graphs only and whether the quarterly tick marks are shown on the X axis The frame width refers to the thickness of the lines used in the graph box the zero marker and the forecast line The and buttons can be used to alter this thickness The rest of the options pertain to the lines of the graph Set the options for each line in turn Line 1 come
102. ra 4 43 1 54 49 03 4 26 0 40 0 23 0 53 0 63 0 53 Q 4T 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 41 Total 0 6256972 0 3164735 2 565813 1 276772 0 5913375 1 040725 01374105 1 671451 2405277 2 300075 1 204331 1 729032 1 638780 1 638374 1 639458 1640383 Average 0 1564243 0 07211838 0417046 D 3121531 D 1478424 2 2601824 003435252 0 4178627 0 5213193 05770186 04950077 04324731 Q4006D070 04008424 04098847 0 4 100073 amp Cha 253 8 150 58 511 07 145 74 53 58 75 58 113 20 1115 38 48 65 T 13 14 02 12 33 52T 0 04 0 01 0 06 EIM For Help press Fa NUM To enter a new value double click on the time period to be changed and enter the value desired For example one could click on the percentage change shown for the fourth quarter of 2009 which has a value of 0 20 in our example Replace this with another value say 2 0 and when you press the tab key or enter key to accept the new value the screen will look like this OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Aj De pi Beveve Saye ge ise ien Advaxed Pinder pep Dg Se TY Germamy Censumphon prumie rmm gt E CAnowiLatest Dasetjunti db Consumption private real Euro Billions 2000 prices Seasonally adjusted P on P Changes Z004 2005 2006 mr 2008 2009 2070 011 2012 013 2014 2015 2016 2017 A018 3019 i O27 0 33 0 63 iT 0 0 0 46 4 20 0H 0 60 0 62 0 53 0 46 0 41 0 41 0 41 0 41 416 0 12 0 33 0 7 0 51 0
103. rter for actual calculations e g calendar vs fiscal years and to calculate differences or percentage differences between two databases In addition the table output can be controlled by altering the number of significant digits to be printed the line length and the number of lines per page If both annual and quarterly date ranges have been set the user can choose to have the annual data appear to the left of the quarterly data the default is for the quarterly data to appear first Finally the user can choose Comma Quote Delimited Output for easier importing of the resulting file into a spreadsheet Having selected the user defined tables to be updated click OK and specify the countries required as with Oxford Economics supplied tables The resulting table will be displayed in the Windows browser as described in the previous section The tables can be sent to a printer or pulled into other software such as a word processor 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide The template shown as an example on the previous page was saved to a file called TEST TPT In the example above this template was chosen from the Other Templates selection quarterly data for 2009 and annual data for 2008 2010 were selected On the country selection screen the US and Germany were selected The resulting table is shown below iu TP TABLES TAH WordPad Fin Ert Wew Inat Format Help j Dir Mad J ry Lz3 T j j O JUNi DB
104. s also used as a continuation character if the equation will take more than one line 80 characters per line the first line s should end with the 9e The maximum number of characters in an equation is 1000 The equations will be checked for syntax and variables A message will be displayed when any syntax problem is encountered but processing will be allowed to continue so that any other errors can be spotted If an equation defines a variable for which data have not been provided the variable will be added to the model with zero values Any right hand side variable that is not already in the database or defined by one of the equations in the EQN file will be flagged It can be added to the model as an exogenous variable and data can be added before the model is run Note the equation help files provided for each country in the model are valid EQN files The equation active dates and the equation type options do not apply to equations entered from a file By default equations entered are assumed to be behavioral that is they are endogenous with residual terms The residuals will be additive in the equation is stated in level terms but multiplicative if the equation is stated in log form this may be overridden by explicitly including a residual term in the equation Also by default the equations entered will be active over the entire range of the database They are made active over the historical part of the database so that historical resi
105. s up by default and you can see its label in the box to the right Just below you will see the thickness of the curve which can be adjusted as described above for the frame width All of the option 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide choices will be retained by the software to be used for subsequent graphs At the bottom of the screen are list boxes to change the colour of the line and the line style solid dash or dotted To the right the minimum and maximum scale values are displayed If you wish you can alter the scale by clicking on the values and overtyping but you must also click on the override checkbox above for the new scale to be implemented Finally there is an option to switch the variable from a line to a bar plot We have found it useful to keep two sets of options depending on whether the graph is to be printed on paper or made into an overhead transparency The button labelled Output will switch between the two sets of parameters Graphing Options I Horizontal Marker at ero Forecast Line Visible W Label T Axis Both Sides i Show Quarterly Tic Marks x axis Frame Width Lurve L X E GDP United States Thickness lt gt verrde Scale Normal Max Value 6 Colour Blue Min Value 6 Line Type Line l OF Cancel To use the final graph in another application such as a word processor click on Edit Copy from the toolbar or the copy ico
106. scan through the list and click on a new series to select it we chose real consumers expenditure 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide The list of variables is displayed in alphabetical order by the variable description If you are more comfortable with the variable mnemonics a click on the button to the right of the variable list marked mnem desn will cause the list to be reorganized alphabetized on the series mnemonic A second click will return the list to its original order Note the variable we chose real consumers expenditure has mnemonic C and description Consumption private real There is a wealth of information about the selected variable available to you on this screen Each column of data represents one calendar year the four quarterly observations are listed above the annual total the average and the annual percentage change Historical data actual figures released by the appropriate statistical agency are displayed in black while forecasts supplied by Oxford Economics are in red The left and right arrow keys can be used to shift the data table backward or forward in time Clicking on the button labelled var res will replace the variable values with residuals Over the historical period the residuals are the differences or the ratios depending upon whether the equation was estimated in level or in log form between the equation calculation and the actual historical value Over the fore
107. screen The scroll bar to the right will allow the user to scan through all of the information It is also possible to send this information to the printer Just select File and Print from the menu at the top of the screen Then there is the technical information This includes the variable ID number which is useful for some special purposes and just below are the variable and residual types Variables may be endogenous exogenous or identities and endogenous variables may have additive or multiplicative residuals Finally there is information on the date through which there is actual historical data and a listing of transformations that are in effect if any Return to the variable data screen by clicking on the file icon to the left of the tool bar at the top of the screen and selecting Close Or you may instead choose to click on the X box at the right hand end of the tool bar Unless you have previously returned to the variable data screen the graph of Q on Q percentage changes will still be on the screen If you need to click on the graph icon to return to the variable data screen 4 2 Changing variable values If the variable you wish to change is endogenous that is its forecast values are determined by an equation you have the option of changing the actual values or the residuals that are part of the calculation of those values If you change the values directly you will have the further option of fixing the 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Ox
108. st country then return to the variable data screen to reset the active country then go back to Add Update equations and so on G OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide If you are adding just one or two simple equations and do not wish to keep them in a file then you may enter them directly For example if you wanted the exports share of GDP to be a model identity you would enter the calculation in the box as shown below Adding Updating Equations EE Eqns from EQN File Eqns from PCGire File Eqns from TSP File Equation Active 380 to 201 4 4 Behavioural Equation Identity Transformation Please type in your equation ASHARE ZX BDP71100 Options Cancel Identifying the variable as an identity will prevent a residual term from being added Checking on the Transformation box will cause the equation to be calculated just once per time period as described However the equations are entered they are converted to lines in a run file The variable mnemonics are replaced with six digit variable identifiers and if the equation is in log form it is translated to level form The equations will not actually be added to the database until the model has been solved with that run file It is a good idea when solving the model to add equations to solve it over at least some portion of history so that the historical residuals will be calculated Note do not solve the model from the beginning of th
109. t Standard Table List iv Standard Tables Cross Country Tables GDP and Components X ch in Emerging Markets z GDP and Components Z ch Bal of Pay in Emerging Mar Difference Tables Personal Income and Expenditure Personal Income and Expenditure Z changes Trade and Balance of Payments Trade and Balance of Payments changes Cross Exchange Rates Labour Market Indicators Labour Market Indicators changes Company Sector and Supply Side Company Sector and Supply Side changes All Countries Inflation Indicators Government Finances i OK C I Opti Government Finances changes a ance plions Public Finances UK onlvl Click on the title box and type in an appropriate title for the tables The database will automatically be set to HIUSRATE DB and the date range to 2008 through 2015 the date of our forecast Select the tables you would like to produce from the list box to the left We chose the two pages of Summary Items and GDP and Components as percentage changes Note multiple selections are made by holding the control key down while using the left mouse button to make selections To the right click on the box for Difference Tables A standard file opening window will appear asking you to supply the name of the database against which comparisons are to be made Select your starting base in our case JUN1L and click on OK The screen will look like this 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide OEF
110. t data is to highlight the desired series then click on Save or Save As from the File menu That will bring up the following dialog box Saving Options Save selection info Cancel Update corresponding data file automatically Include Description and Source in output Save all information and data to file File to have following optional format Yars by Row Reduced Format Access DB Format Save directly to Access Database Save all variables for all countries Save selected variables for all countries Save all variables for selected countries Save each selected variables for each selected sector Save generated list of variables and sectors Checking the fourth box labelled Save all information and data to PRN file and then clicking on OK will create an ascii file in column format as shown below E Gsit PHH WordPad De Edit yew pmet Format elo Cel SIS A B X BAYIL Of HAYIL D io us GERMANY DE GOP PY PY 2001 Sead 200801 200804 2005021 20080 B0Hd4 l amp 0H 4 p ogpnoa D o0 enpu 19 0 37000 C 00000 0 00000 0 00000 nanb p aann 1 65093 1 34 19 33555 TgUISBE 4 33446 1 915544 3 T8004 2 5 5580 238009 1902 E215 23863 2 71304 1 95215 1 35854 1 42706 1 48152 2 250309 1983 3 21670 1 03438 5 65455 2 11020 T T7208z 1 65556 B 4H8098 1 05547 1984 T 9221z 1 20247 6 86145 1 25086 5 597911 2 73569 4 51064 0 5610569E D1 19585 3 62027 3 07565 4 225596 3 03222 4 17115 1 39151 4 20521 0 9
111. ta Any series listed in the box of variables whether in level form or transformed and whether a series from the database or one that was calculated via the Get Function screen may be displayed Highlight the selected series by clicking on it only one series may be selected to be displayed at a time and click on the button labelled Display Data The data will be shown in the same Windows browser that is used to display tables The data are arranged by year as shown OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide LB oxtord Economics C United States a fe e Be Eit wem yew pes L3 m E ey T Kk CApow Lntest Daseunay1l db 2 Variable Unibind Simena Censuenern rwpend urr te tatal bin ehn bin rhninezi 2000 5 C c 3 Ss Im Lewn Waina 7 Database CANOWALATEST BASEIMAY ILDE Couniry US SH W Export Share Level Values 1300 1301 1302 1903 1304 1305 1 3d ia 6 1243 5 2025 6 0750 5 5255 5 4002 5 5264 5 5353 aie hia hid h 0193 5 4 14 5h dd1f 5 d h hare i3 5 3553 6 0790 5 7741 5 3357 5 5071 5 2969 5 6455 EE fi 217H bh Ha 5 50m 5 30311 5 hi 4l 5h 4147 h H Fri 1887 San 1484 1490 1441 1947 gga ia t T92b 5 534 T U2 1 7 5433 7 3331 1 60 0 5781 Oz 5 2512 5 532 p 223 reu5 g 2382 Hehe 5 5341 aI fh 1f d fs h F HOF 7 3149 7 745 H 3852 T h247 noha i4 5 2709 5 0578 7 4158 7 9230 8 5487 8 5777 8 7333 19494 1995 1996 1997 1228 1224 2000 i Hf Fl g 41272 3 93 1fi TOKIO Tu Bzh
112. tabase C QE aug1 db lt United States GDP real Levels 3100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP real Bs C OEaug1 db United States GDP GDP real Y Levels Remove Remove All Refresh Graph United States GDP real US Chained Billions seasonally adjusted 2000 prices C OE au Variable Levels 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 3133 525 3228 975 3274 975 3341 725 3231 350 3266 167 3359 453 3 Q2 3146 875 3240 625 3301 000 3353 825 3223 100 3283 704 3387 023 3 Q3 3170 800 3241 475 3330 275 3331 150 3233 603 3303 987 3412 793 3 Q 4 3187 175 3265 175 3347 800 3285 475 3250 137 3330 409 3438 733 3 Now highlight the series in the upper right hand field and click the right mouse button That brings up a list of options for transforming and adding other versions of the same series S Data Facility File Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help America Key indicators United States Current account of balance of payments BCU Argentina Current account of balance of payments BCU Brazil Visible trade balance BI Canada Consumption private real C Chile Consumer price index CPI Mexico Capacity utilisation model consistent version CUMOD Europe Earnings average ER AsiaPacific Employment total ET Africa Government balance GB World GDP constant prices and exchange rate GDP All GDP real GDP GDP real
113. the table is generated If the table is to include data from more than one country then the Sector Country box must be filled in The variable mnemonic must be either in the database or determined via the Define Function box Infonmation for Variable Line in Table Variable Mnemonic Cancel Sector Country Number of Decimal Data Type Scale Factor E Annual Data Type Totals for Yea Text Description For OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Number of Decimal specifies the number of decimal places to be printed and Data Type specifies the transformation of the data to be printed level difference annual difference percentage change annual percentage change or compound annual growth rate The Scale Factor comes into play if the data to be printed are very large or very small they will display better after scaling Annual Data Type specifies the calculation of annual data averaging summing or using the fourth quarter value The Text Description will be printed to the left of the data A sample template is shown below Oxford Economic Forecasting Untitled D c id 2 4B gt ae Title Subtitle Blank Line Date Line Define Function ariable jus X APFOOD v T Table 1 S Key Indicators D I GDP 1A 1 000000 T Real Gross Domestic Product I gdp 1GR1 000000 T compound annual I gdp 1PY1 000000 A year ago cpi 1A 1 000000 A Consumer Price Index
114. tion will remain in effect until the user turns it off by clicking on the ex ante button a second time When the option is active the button is a lighter grey than the surrounding toolbar 4 2 6 Changing historical values The sorts of changes we have been making to the forecast values of variables could also be made to the historical values This might be useful if data have been revised for the most recent time period and you would like to see how this new information might affect the near term forecast However if you wanted to try a more ambitious experiment say altering fiscal or monetary policy several years ago to see the outcome simply changing the history and solving the model over the affected date range will not be effective This is because all of the other variables are fixed at their actual historical values so the policy change will have no effect In this case the user should first choose the Other option from the top toolbar followed by the option Add Remove Fixes The option Remove All Fixes should then be checked with the date range altered to reflect the historical period over which the counterfactual simulation is to be run This procedure activates the model over the past and counterfactuals can then be conducted in the same way as simulations over the future as described above G OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 4 3 Saving and retrieving run files At times it may be useful to save a r
115. title printed flush to the left Clicking on Blank Line will insert a space into the table while Date Line will provide for dates to appear across the page CT Oxtord Economies Untitled EMITE Be g i iew winders ren 2x Ds eater Title Subbitie Basi Line Date Line Define Funclion arise us Ace bul j IT T Table 1 5 8 Key Indicators Ibi P r For Helo press Fa CAP MLB OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Define Function is used if it is desirable to print data in a table that is not stored in the database but that can be calculated from series that are in the database The user types a mnemonic into the small box and the calculation into the larger box as shown below in the example to calculate nominal consumption s share of nominal GDP Functions for User Table Templates EJE3 Mnemonic for Variable to be Created cshare max 15 charactersl Function to be used no LHS or equals sign cl gqdp 100 Clicking on Variable brings up the following dialog box to collect information about the next line item to be included in the table Type the mnemonic in the first box There are pull down lists of countries and mnemonics available to help the user find the mnemonics but the information must still be typed into the appropriate boxes If the table is to include data from a single country then the Sector Country box may be left blank the country will be selected when
116. tle DEF T ables Erom 2008 to 201 1 4 Fixes and Equations All Countries OK __Cancel_ Coefficients Cancel Variables and Residuals Change Base for Diffs UU Differences Hin differences 0 0005 Percentage Differences Hin 0 0005 At the top of the screen is the default database If you wish to create listings from a base other than the one listed as the main base click on the Change button to the left A standard Windows file opening box will appear Select the base you prefer and click on OK Enter a title if you wish This title will appear at the top of the listing created Set the date range by clicking on the appropriate boxes and resetting the values The date range is applicable to the Variables and Residuals Differences and Percentage Differences listings If you check the box beside Variables and Residuals you will create an ascii file that contains for each variable in each country selected and for each time period in the date range the equation calculation the residual and the variable value A portion of such a file is shown below For the periods over which the variable is fixed the third column labelled Act Fcst contains the actual historical data and the value in the Residual column is calculated as the actual less or divided by the computed value depending on whether the residual is additive or multiplicative Over the forecast period the Act Fcst column contains the forecast valu
117. to switch to PRN or CSV files Any of these file types can be read to provide information about the variables that were selected in their creation amp test SEL testg SEL eurozone SEL File name Files of type Selection Files sel M Cancel Once you have retrieved the variable list you can edit it adding or deleting lines If the variables in the reopened SEL file are from more than one database then the file will be opened exactly as it was created However as a special case if all of the variables were chosen from the same database the following dialog box will appear Database Options CANOWANDVI DB is specified as the base in chosen file Should this be replaced with current achive database 7 Yes No OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide If you click on Yes then the database name in the SEL file NOV1 DB in this case will be replaced with the name of the currently opened database This will allow the user to update the series in a PRN file whenever desirable eS OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 10 List information from Database There are several ways of listing information from a database in quantity that may be useful to the forecaster To begin click on Advanced Options on the main menu Then select List Information from Database The following screen will appear Print Listings Mon base C AnowALatest Base junll db Ti
118. unfile of changes that have not yet been incorporated into a data base by solving the model This might be the case if you re making a lot of changes and need to stop before all have been set To save the runfile without solving click on Save in the grey toolbar at the top of the screen This will bring up a dialog box that lists the runfiles currently available in the directory where the OE software and databases are stored Save Changes to File Look in B OE ailD run i rFedsn run i rsheuroSd run ust1D run El yvuanzl run File name Files of type Changes file run Cancel Provide a name for your runfile by typing in the box labeled File name The filetype of run will be added automatically and the run file of all of the changes that had been implemented during the session will be saved to the OE directory To begin work with a previously created runfile click on Retrieve in the grey toolbar at the top of the screen This will bring up a dialog box listing all of the available runfiles Retrieve Changes from File Look ir z OE 4 ailiD run rredS0 run rsheuraBD run us 10 run yuan run File name Files of type Changes file rur Cancel Click on the file you wish to start with It will be read in and any changes made subsequently will be added to it OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide 5 Solving the Model Once
119. want to pull in data from a different database As shown in the screenshot on the previous page these options are also provided With the annual percentage change variables still highlighted we right click on one of them and selected Change Base and Duplicate This brought up a list of available databases We selected on an oil shock scenario and two new lines were added to our list for the annual percentage changes in GDP for the US and Canada but drawn from the second base The data appear automatically in the spreadsheet part of the screen but the chart won t change until Refresh Graph button is pushed We selected the percentage changes for the US and Canada by selecting while holding down the control key and refreshed the graph The resulting screen is shown on the following page OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide m Graphics aac File Edit Options Font Other Settings Window Help America Key indicators Database United States a Capacity utilisation model consistent version CUMOD 3 United States GDP GDP real Y Levels augl db Argentina Consumer price index CPI Canada GDP GDP real V Levels augl db Brazil Consumption private real C nen States cu oe be s pir tne i H anada real Annual Chges augl ane paren coe eae pear ee 1 United States GDP GDP real EAR NES olshock db ile Current account of balance of payments BCU Canada GDP GDP real V Annual X Chges cilihockdb
120. y that is currently selected A line referring to the mnemonic you have selected will be entered into the box of selected variables The calculated data may then be displayed graphed or saved to an ascii file just as any series from the database 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Note the series calculated is a temporary variable It is not stored on the database To add series and equations to the database see Chapter 11 However the calculation will be retained during the session so that if you want the same transformation calculated for several countries you would create it for the first country as described above then switch to the second country click on Get Function and type in the name of the mnemonic you had chosen for the first country When you click on the description or function area or on OK the entries from the first country will be recalled and entries added to the variable selection box as shown below Note there is no case distinction CT oxtord Economics Graphics fa Ife foe L1 Pe Ed Quas For Other Seiengs Verde Hei E X L me hd bta F es T Kk CAncwiLoteat Daseunay1l db las Variable 1 ii United Sintes Consumers expenditure tatal bn chained 2000 5 gt C tee Lenn Values 7 fah US WLC Anu Latest Haxe umay TL di Add to End Insert Remo we iet Funclsur Draw Graph Drplay Data Sart Scale Clear For Help prezs Fl NUM 9 2 Displaying da
121. you have implemented all the changes desired click on the SOLVE button on the variable data screen The following screen will appear Dates Files SUM 2005 f 4g ens ao Change Elena iieiea he L XnowXLatest Basetjuni l db C now Latest Base Xun l db Options i Include All Countries OF Cancel At the top of the screen are date ranges for the database solution period Although the model solution is very quick you may want to abbreviate the solution period if you are only interested in a near term forecast Solving the model over some of the recent past will not affect the solution The input database is the starting point for the solution If you wish to start from a different database than the default click on the button to the left labeled Change This will bring up a file opening screen which will display all files with extension DB in the folder where the OXFORD ECONOMICS software is stored Select one of them by clicking on it and then clicking on OK Input Database Please 55 Jun0044 DB 45 Jun001A DB 55 Jun0018 DB 8 Jun001C DB a jun1l db File name junti db Cancel Files af type 55 Jun0028 D8 55 Jun002C 0B 55 Jun003A DB 55 JunD038 D8 5 Jun003C DB Input D atabases db 5 Jun0048 DB Jun O4C DB 2 Jun004D DB Jun005A DB 2 Jun0058 D8 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide Similarly you can change the output databas
122. ys In addition it is possible to calculate expressions involving one or more variables from a database To begin click on the Advanced Options icon on the main menu and then click on the Alternative Data Facility option CT oxtord Economics Get Data Untitled LL Fle ESL Queens Fab Othe Serge yox peu a x ihe id un E CAnow Latest DaseuntiLdb fH variable lest L United States GOP bin chained 2000 amp GOP SS tevervniues For Help press F 1 CAP MM 9 1 Selecting variables The toolbar at the top of the screen contains a list box for the database name To switch to a different database click on the chge base button to the right of the list box locate and highlight the name of the desired base on the list and click on OK to make the selection There is another list box on the toolbar that allows the user to toggle between actual values and residuals for endogenous variables Most of the time this will be left set to Variable Below the toolbar are three additional list boxes for the selection of the country variable and transformation To change the selections click on the arrow to the right of each list box then locate and 9 OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide highlight you selection Note the first six choices in the transformation list box provide quarterly data in level q on q changes compound growth rates or differences and annual changes and differe

Oxford Economics Global Model User Guide

Contents

Download Pdf Manuals

Related Search

Related Contents