Triple Crown Saturdays 2012 Version_1
Contents
1. If the horse did well it s a player today If it did poorly it will likely have trouble today If the Derby has a fast early pace you will want to give extra credit to the best late running horses with running styles of Presser or Sustainer S Pay particularly attention to the horses that rank high in the Best Late List Distance Considerations None of the horses will have run the 1 1 4 mile distance before However many of the horses will have run in 1 1 8 mile race Look at these past performance races to see if the horse did well did just OK or did poorly We particularly look for horses that were gaining ground or extending their lead down the stretch Again the long distance of the Derby favors closers Later in this article we present some other effective methods to substantially reduce the number of horses you consider for all Triple Crown Saturday races The Preakness Run for the Black Eyed Susans The Preakness is always run exactly two weeks after the Kentucky Derby more specifically on the third Saturday in May It is run at the Pimlico race track in Baltimore Maryland The Preakness is a 1 3 16 mile dirt race The Pimlico track has somewhat longer straightaways and sharper turns than Churchill Downs The field sizes since 2000 have averaged around 11 horses but there was a large 14 horse field in 2011 The Preakness is not as difficult to handicap as the Kentucky Derby With that s2. Frandsen Publishing Presents Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Articles Handicapping the Full Race Cards On Triple Crown Saturdays Getting Ready for the 2012 Triple Crown About This Newsletter This article looks at the 2011 Triple Crown results and then presents some ideas for handicapping the three individual Triple Crown races specifically the Kentucky Derby the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes Then we review the Elimination Strategies we covered last year including updating the statistics with the 2011 results for the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays Looking at the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays makes sense because this is where most players focus their attention and handicapping efforts on these three big days of racing More specifically the article explains techniques to narrow down the full fields of horses on Triple Crown Saturdays by approximately 40 so we can focus on the horses we should consider in our wagers Accentuate the Positive and avoid the horses we should not consider Eliminate the Negative Heads Up Be sure to pay close attention to the discussion later in this article about the Best Late Best Early Group It may well be the single most valuable piece of handicapping information you will use for handicapping the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays All past ALL Ways Newsletters as well as a Major Topic Index are posted on both the BRIS and Frandse
3. available in the industry And ALL Ways Newsletters are FREE These newsletters are posted on both the BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites All articles that are part of the Favorite ALL Ways Article series are available on the Frandsen Publishing Web site All Newsletters and Major Topic Index Frandsen Publishing is also the developer of ALL Ways Handicapping Software ALL Ways is serious software for professional and serious horseplayers Phillips Racing Newsletter calls ALL Ways Software absolutely the best free handicapping tool on the market and gives ALL Ways 9 22 rating the highest ever awarded And ALL Ways Software is FREE More about ALL Ways Software Bloodstock Research Information Services and Frandsen Publishing Corporation are pleased to provide ALL Ways Software ALL Ways Newsletters and the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Articles series all for FREE brisnet com we Bloodstock Kesearch Information Services
4. 4 000 Once again it is best to focus on races with eight or more betting interests Payoffs are based on 2 wagers e Second because of the high class caliber of races horses tend to run more true to form What we mean by this is that horses tend to run pretty much as you would expect based on doing a good job of handicapping e Third the handicapping challenges are clear and there are good ways to determine if a horse will likely be able to hold up to the challenge s e Finally the crowds come out on these three big race days in person or ata simulcast venue or on line and they wager a lot of money Horseplayers who have the best handicapping information and know how to use it effectively have a big edge over the general public For Non ALL Ways Handicappers A Tip Sheet Approach After reading this article many handicappers who have not used ALL Ways software will want to have access to the handicapping information presented in the article And it is very easy to do by simply printing out two ALL Ways handicapping reports specifically the Search Handicapping Report and the Top 10 Ranking Report In other words it is not necessary to learn all about ALL Ways Software The simple step by step instructions for non ALL Ways users to take advantage of this powerful handicapping information are posted as the first item on the What s New Page of the Frandsen Publishing Web site at www frandsen com Again there i
5. 47 46 46 139 This shows us that in 2011 87 34 of the 39 of the winners were in the Top 10 Speed Performances Group as well as 87 34 of 39 of the Place horses 92 36 of 39 of the Show horses and 90 35 of 39 of the 4th place finishers We suggest starting with the Top 10 BRIS Speed Performances list which is standard on the ALL Ways Top 10 Ranking Report Then we suggest checking the Top 10 Hall Speed Performances list which can be added to the Top 10 Ranking Report to see if there is a Hall Speed only horse you may want to add for further consideration Bringing it All Together Some reminders First everything in this article is aimed at handicapping the full race cards on the three Triple Crown Saturdays including the three specific Triple Crown races Second the main handicapping task we have been discussing is how to narrow down the full fields of horses to just the horses you want to focus on for your wagers The elimination method this article addresses focuses on four special groups of horses in ALL Ways software Overall if we eliminate all horses that not appear in at least one group we find that we can generally shrink the field down by about 40 The chart below shows how many groups the top 4 finishers on Triple Crown Saturdays were in Remember in 2009 2010 and 2011 there were a total of 39 races each year with a total of 156 horses that finished in the top 4 finish positions Co
6. betting interests Track Races Win Exacta Trifecta Super CDX 11 19 02 120 905 9 049 PIM 9 11 60 89 843 2 153 BEL 10 19 34 271 1 452 15 842 Total 30 Averages 16 90 161 1 169 9 245 Averages Excluding Triple Crown Races Averages 27 14 24 128 794 5 632 The Kentucky Derby The Run for the Roses The Kentucky Derby is run every year at Churchill Downs in Louisville Kentucky on the first Saturday in May The Kentucky Derby is one of the most difficult races to handicap virtually every year The race has 3 year old horses that are still maturing racing against the toughest competition they have ever faced running in a generally fast paced race trying to run the longest distance thus far in their young careers 1 1 4 mile and doing all of this facing the largest field of horses they will ever face in their entire careers Favorites simply do not win the Derby very often The statistics below focus on the Derby winners from 2000 through 2011 but exclude the 2005 and 2009 races that were won by 50 1 Giacomo and 51 1 Mine That Bird respectively Races Won by a Horse Ranked in the Top 3 for the Factor Kentucky Derby Factor Races Won BRIS Speed 2 3 8 of 10 BRIS Combined 2 3 8 of 10 BRIS Late 2 3 7 of 10 BRIS Prime Power 7 of 10 BRIS Combined BRIS Early Pace BRIS Final Fraction Pace BRIS Late BRIS Final Fraction Pace BRIS Speed BRIS Prime Power An overall comprehensive rating 2 3 Average for the h
7. in the top four finish positions were in the Best Late List Only 14 17 of 124 of the horses were in only the Best Early list In 2010 78 98 of 125 top 4 finishers were in the Best Late List and only 22 27 of 125 of the horses were in only the Best Early list In 2011 79 98 of 124 top 4 finishers were in the Best Late List and only 21 26 of 124 of the horses were in only the Best Early list The ALL Ways Best Late List is an extremely powerful tool for finding the Win Place Show and fourth place finishers on Triple Crown Saturdays This includes most of the high priced surprises Here is another extremely important piece of handicapping information Every one of the 17 Best Early Only horses that finished in one of the 156 top 4 finish positions in 2009 was also in at least one other of the four Groups we are discussing in this article either the Contender Group and or the Key Horse Candidate Group and or the Top 10 Speed Performances Group In 2010 26 of the 27 Best Early Only horses that finished in the top 4 were also in at least one of the other Groups In 2011 26 of the 26 Best Early Only horses that finished in the top 4 were also in at least one of the other Groups The place to start your handicapping in this Best Late Best Early Group is with just the Best Late horses Then check the Best Early horses to see if you think a horse should be added for consideration in your wagers giv
8. standpoint we want to find horses that have come back to do well after a short to modest layoff Here are some statistics for the in the money finishers in the Belmont Stakes since 2000 excluding the 2002 race which was won by Sarava at 70 to 1 odds As an aside the Hall pace and speed figures in ALL Ways Software did find Sarava In the Money Performance of Top Ranked Horses for the Factor Belmont Stakes Factor Win Place Show Top 3 Top 4 Top 4 BRIS Class 6 of 11 9 of 11 7 of 11 BRIS Speed 2 3 7 of 11 8 of 11 7 of 11 True Dirt FF 7 of 11 9 of 11 7 of 11 BRIS CMB 2 3 6 of 11 7 of 11 7 of 11 BRIS Late 2 3 7 of 11 8 of 11 9 of 11 Comprehensive 7 of 11 8 of 11 7 of 11 BRIS Power 5 of 11 9 of 11 4 of 11 True Dirt FF Average BRIS Final Fraction Pace on a dry dirt track at the same distance category of today s race sprint or route BRIS Combined BRIS Early Pace BRIS Final Fraction Pace BRIS Late BRIS Final Fraction Pace BRIS Speed BRIS Prime Power An overall comprehensive rating Comprehensive an ALL Ways overall comprehensive rating 2 3 Average for the horse s best 2 out of its last 3 races Using BRIS Speed 2 3 as an example e 7 of the 11 winning horses were ranked the top 3 of BRIS Speed 2 3 e 8of the 11 Place horses ranked in the top 4 of BRIS Speed 2 3 e 7 of the 11 Show horses were ranked in the top 4 of BRIS Speed 2 3 Handicapping the Full Race Cards on Triple Crown Saturdays Elimination Strat
9. 011 we were able to eliminate almost 40 of the full fields and still have 150 of the 156 top 4 finishers remaining for consideration in our wagers In other words in 2011 only six horses were missing from the 156 top 4 finishers in all 39 races Only one of the 52 top 4 finishers at Churchill 4 of 52 at Pimlico and 1 of 52 at Belmont were missing Later in this article we will present some ways to spot even these few missing horses Note that all of the top 4 finishers in the Kentucky Derby Preakness and Belmont Stakes were in one or more of the four groups Now we are going to briefly look at each of the individual four groups and show how well they did for the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays All races are included No races were excluded Each group is impressive by itself but don t get hung up on a single group Towards the end of this article we will summarizes how these groups all worked together Reminder for Non ALL Ways Users Frandsen Publishing provides simple instructions on the Frandsen Web site for using ALL Ways Software like a Tip Sheet for handicapping the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays This makes it possible to use the concepts presented in this article without having to learn all about the software See the end of this article for more information 1 The Contender Group ALL Ways uses comprehensive handicapping information about every horse in the race to make horse to ho
10. aid the Preakness is still a very competitive and high class race It is still a race for rapidly maturing 3 year olds One important added handicapping complexity is that the Kentucky Derby horses running in the Preakness are coming back in only two weeks after competing in one of the toughest races they will ever encounter The statistics below focus on all twelve Preakness winners from 2000 through 2011 Races Won by a Horse Ranked in the Top 3 for the Factor Preakness Factor Races Won True Dirt Speed 11 of 12 BRIS Speed 2 3 11 of 12 Hall Speed 2 3 11 of 12 BRIS Prime Power 11 of 12 ALL Ways Comprehensive 10 of 12 BRIS Power or ALL Ways Comp 12 of 12 True Dirt Speed Average BRIS Speed on a dry dirt track at the same distance category of today s race sprint or route BRIS Prime Power An overall comprehensive rating Comprehensive an ALL Ways overall comprehensive rating 2 3 Average for the horse s best 2 out of its last 3 races The figures in this chart are indeed impressive Remember that this shows the number of winners out of the top 3 ranked horses for each factor So all of the last twelve winners were ranked the top 3 of the BRIS Prime Power Rating and or the ALL Ways Comprehensive Rating This includes Shackelford at 13 to 1 in the large 14 horse field in 2011 Handicapping the Preakness Normal handicapping approaches work well for the Preakness One thing to note is that 24 of the 36 in the money finish
11. aving a chance to finish in the money Here are some helpful handicapping considerations for narrowing down the large Kentucky Derby field of horses Post Position Not a single winning horse came out of the first three post positions during any of the twelve Kentucky Derby races run since 2000 This may well be because inside posts tend to be a problem for horses getting trapped behind a wall of horses going into the stretch run in the large Derby fields BRIS Combined 2 3 Another good eliminator is to downgrade horses that are not ranked in the top 10 of key handicapping factors For example looking at all twelve Kentucky Derby races run since 2000 31 of the 36 in the money finishers were ranked in the top 10 for the BRIS Combined 2 3 factor In 2011 all top 4 finishers were ranked in the top 9 of BRIS Combined 2 3 Pace Considerations Most Kentucky Derby races are run at a fast early pace The 2011 Kentucky Derby had a very fast ALL Ways Race Pace Shape of EEE meaning there were three or more Early horses One good way to approach this is to look at how the horse ran in its past performance race s where the early pace pressure was strong Using the ALL Ways Past Performance Handicapping Report look for races that had a Quirin Race Shape of FF or FP These mean the past performance race had a Fast early pace and a Fast final time FF or the race had a Fast early pace and a Par final time FP
12. egies ALL Ways Software does a tremendous amount of analysis behind the scenes to determine the horses that are qualified for each of four groups The four groups are 1 Contenders 2 Key Horse Candidates 3 Best Late Best Early Horses 4 Top 10 Speed Performances The Elimination Strategies we first presented two years ago basically uses these four ALL Ways horse designations to dramatically reduce the full field of horses to just those horses we want to consider for our wagers Basically if a horse is not in any of the four groups we eliminate it from consideration This method generally reduces the full fields by approximately 40 This strategy worked well in 2009 again in 2010 and again in 2011 as well The chart below shows the details for each track Top 4 Finishers after Eliminating Approximately 40 of the Fields Triple Crown Saturdays CDX PIM BEL TOTAL 2009 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 12 12 13 37 of 39 Place 12 12 13 37 of 39 Show 13 12 10 35 of 39 4th 12 12 11 35 of 39 49 0 52 48o of52 470f 52 144 of 156 2010 Races 13 13 13 39 Win 13 12 13 37 of 39 Place 12 12 11 37 of 39 Show 13 11 12 35 of 39 4th 11 12 12 35 of 39 49 0 52 47 0 52 48of 52 144 of 156 2011 Races 13 13 13 39 y Win 12 13 13 38 of 39 Place 13 10 13 36 of 39 Show 13 13 12 38 of 39 4th 13 12 13 38 of 39 510 52 48o0f52 51 of52 150 of 156 Looking at all 39 races run on the three full race cards in 2
13. ers since 2000 were either Presser P horses or Sustainer S horses The remaining 12 horses were either Early E horses or Early Pressers EP horses This indicates the Best Early Best Late strategy should work well for Exacta and Trifecta wagers The Preakness is notorious for low win payoffs but the Exacta and Trifecta frequently pay well Once again look at the ALL Ways Best Late List for the higher odds top 4 finishers The Belmont Stakes The Run for the Carnations The Belmont Stakes the third and final leg of the Triple Crown is always run exactly three weeks after the Preakness Handicapping the Belmont Stakes An interesting fact As of the date this article was written in the years since we last had a Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978 there have been eleven horses that won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness but then failed in the Belmont Stakes The two big handicapping challenges are the length of the race 1 1 2 miles and in the case of horses who competed in the Kentucky Derby and or the Preakness the ability of the horses to handle such a demanding race after such a short layoff between races From a distance standpoint we obviously need to find horses that did well in their prior long races in terms of gaining ground down the stretch Horses that were backing at the end of the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness are probably not good candidates to win the Belmont Stakes From a stamina
14. fs Kentucky Derby Odds Win Place Show Win 21 to 1 43 80 19 60 13 00 Place 9 to 1 8 80 6 40 Show 9 to 1 7 00 4th 23 to 1 Preakness Win 13 to 1 27 20 10 20 6 80 Place 2 tol 4 20 3 60 Show 16 to 1 8 00 4th 4 to 1 Belmont Stakes Win 25 to 1 51 50 26 00 13 60 Place 16 to 1 19 40 10 80 Show 11 to 1 7 90 4th 5 to 1 Exacta Trifecta Super Kentucky Derby 330 3 952 48 126 Preakness 115 1 402 3 106 Belmont Stakes 928 8 268 74 052 Some observations about these payoffs The Kentucky Derby is rarely won by the favorite Obviously this was the case again in 2011 The Preakness payoffs were a little better than usual The Belmont Stakes payoffs were huge perhaps due at least in part to the muddy dirt track The chart below shows the average payoffs for the within race wagers for 30 of the 39 races run on the three Triple Crown Saturday race cards All nine of the excluded races had seven or fewer betting interest in the race The top part of the chart includes the three Triple Crown Races The bottom of the chart excludes these three big races These payoffs are pretty much in line with what we have come to expect on Triple Crown Saturdays It provides pretty strong motivation for us to focus our handicapping efforts on the full race cards on these three big racing days paying particular attention to races with eight or more betting interests Average Triple Crown Saturday 2 Payoffs Excludes races with 7 or fewer
15. ing extra credit if the horse is in one of the other three Groups Contenders Key Horse Candidates 10 Speed Performances 4 Top 10 Speed Performances Group Now we turn to the Top 10 Speed Performance Group the last of our four groups ALL Ways looks at the five most recent races run by every horse in the race It then identifies the ten best BRIS Speed performances of all the horses in the field A horse can make the list multiple times if more than one of its speed performances makes the top 10 list For example if there are ten horses in the field ALL Ways will look at the five most recent races of each horse for a total of 50 races It then identifies the top 10 BRIS Speed figures achieved by the horses in these 50 races Again in virtually every case several horses will make the list multiple times and conversely many horses will not have a Top 10 Speed Performance Here is how many of the 4 finishers made the Top 10 Speed Performances Group Number of Top 4 Finishers in the Top 10 Speed Performances Group Triple Crown Saturdays CDX PIM BEL TOTAL 2009 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 11 12 12 35 Place 11 12 13 36 Show 9 10 9 28 4th 11 10 11 32 Total 42 44 45 131 2010 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 11 12 12 35 Place 11 12 11 34 Show 11 10 10 31 4th 9 12 10 31 Total 42 46 41 131 2011 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 9 13 12 34 87 Place 13 9 12 34 87 Show 13 12 11 36 92 4th 12 12 11 35 90 Total
16. ing horses Three of the six missing horses were designated by ALL Ways as Dangerous Non Contenders Continued Evaluating the Missing 12 12 6 Triple Crown Saturdays 2009 2010 2011 Total number of races 39 39 39 Total number of Top 4 finishers 156 156 156 Top 4 finishers in at least one group 144 144 150 Top 4 finishers not in any group 12 12 6 Total races with at least one missing horse 11 of 39 9of 39 5 of 39 Maiden races with at least one missing horse 3 3 2 Number of missing horses in Maiden races 4 5 3 Finish positions of the missing horses Win 2 Place 2 4 3 Show 3 3 4th 5 4 1 12 12 6 Going off odds of the missing horses Under 10 to 1 2 2 10 to 1 up to 20 to 1 3 3 Above 20 to 1 7 2 1 12 12 6 Obvious reasons for exclusion from the four groups Ist Timers 2 2 Foreign with no data 0 2nd or 3rd start with all bad prior races 3 2 2 First time on the surface 2 1 Total 6o0f 12 7 of 12 5 of 6 Redeeming considerations ALL Ways designated Dangerous Non Contender 3 4 3 Top 3 Hall pace and or speed figures 6 5 2 Note A Missing Horse is a top 4 finisher that was any of the four groups Summary Here is how we recommend approaching handicapping the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays 1 2 Start with horses in the four groups Determine which of these horses you would be comfortable removing from further consideration generally based on class form o
17. more information The Three Triple Crown Races For the second year in a row three different horses won the three Triple Crown races in 2011 Animal Kingdom 21 1 won the Kentucky Derby Shackelford 13 1 won the Preakness and Ruler on Ice 25 1 won the Belmont Stakes We are now at 33 consecutive years without a Triple Crown winning horse since Affirmed achieved the feat in 1978 So why has it been so difficult for horses to win the Triple Crown We believe the answer is because of the absolute grueling schedule and tough race distances these three year old horses experience during the five week period the three races are run Consider this These horses are generally accustomed to several weeks off between races until they hit the Kentucky Derby Then in the Derby they face very tough competition at the same time they must run a 1 1 4 mile race for the very first time Then they get only two weeks off until they must run the 1 3 16 mile Preakness Then they get only three weeks off until they must run the 1 1 2 mile Belmont Stakes Like we said this is a grueling endeavor Obviously not many horses can handle it While this is frustrating for those who would like a new Triple Crown winner these three big racing days continue to provide stellar wagering opportunities for those able to crack the code of handicapping the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays Here are the payoffs for 2011 2011 Triple Crown 2 Wager Payof
18. n Publishing Web sites and they are always free Also articles already published as part of the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Article series are posted in the Newsletter Section on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and they are free as well See the links at the end of this article For Non ALL Ways Handicappers Even if you are not an ALL Ways user you will gain valuable insights from this article for handicapping the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays Many of the concepts travel well and can be used effectively with information from other sources such as the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances Plus A Tip Sheet Approach Each year Frandsen Publishing provides very simple instructions on their Web site for using ALL Ways Software like a Tip Sheet for Triple Crown Saturdays This makes it possible to use the concepts presented in this article without having to learn all the details about the software Plus The New ALL Ways Starter Packages These new low cost ALL Ways Starter Packages with a short learning curve make it easy fast and economical to get started with ALL Ways Software They are a great way for investigative and analytical horseplayers to give database handicapping a try Discover why Phillips Racing Newsletter gave ALL Ways Software an unprecedented 9 1 2 rating and why it has been the choice of so many top handicappers for a generation See the end of this article for
19. nalysis shows how well horses perform based on the size Gap of their advantage for key handicapping factors The Gap Deficiency Analysis shows how this performance declines based on a horse s disadvantage for the factor The ALL Ways Angle Assistant helps create and evaluate ALL Ways Custom Search Definitions your own personal handicapping angles The MRA features automatically determine the handicapping factors that work best in combination with each other for finding Win Place and Show horses and automatically create race type and race track specific Handicapping Profiles made up of these factors And you can use multiple Handicapping Profiles at the same time to handicap the race from three different perspectives sort of your own Consensus Pick capability The in depth Wager Analysis functions help you identify the best wagering opportunities at a track and how best to structure your wagers And there is much much more Note Available Starter Packages include the three Triple Crown tracks namely Churchill Downs Pimlico and Belmont Park More about ALL Ways Starter Packages Copyright 2012 Frandsen Publishing Corporation All Rights Reserved Email FrandsenPublishing Comcast net Web Site www frandsen com Phone 952 937 9180 Frandsen Publishing Corporation is the publisher of the quarterly ALL Ways Newsletters which are widely considered to be one of the best sources of handicapping and wagering insights
20. ntinued The 156 Top 4 Finishers by Number of Assigned Groups Triple Crown Saturdays Number gt of Groups 2009 Races v Win Place Show 4th Total 2010 Races Win Place Show 4th Total 2011 Races Win Place Show 4th Total 4 29 26 19 12 86 55 25 21 19 16 81 52 22 19 21 16 78 50 3 11 25 16 lo u 16 19 2 low BRN 13 N wa gt 15 N 1 O aw N 13 N NNN Ww ON A w 22 14 N a wa N w This chart is very informative In both 2009 and 2010 only 12 of the 156 top four finishers in the 39 races were not in one or more of the four groups It was even more powerful in 2011 when only six horses were missing meaning they were not in any of the four groups Indeed 96 150 of 156 of the top 4 finishers in every race on the full 201 1Saturday cards at all three Triple Crown tracks were in at least one of the four groups Finding the Missing 12 12 6 The chart on the next page shows some characteristics of the missing horses Keep in mind that this is very few missing horses when you consider it is out of 156 top 4 finishers each year Some quick observations about the 2011 races Half the missing horses 3 of 6 were in Maiden races Two thirds of the missing six horses went off at 10 to 1 or higher There were very obvious reasons for five of the six miss
21. or a horse to be in both lists which makes ita Dual Qualifier The chart below shows how many of the top four finishers were in the Best Late Best Early Group More specifically the chart shows us that in 2009 and 2010 a whopping 35 of the 39 winners were in the Best Late Best Early Group In 2011 an impressive 32 of the 39 winners were included Place Show and 4th place horses were strong as well Continued Number of 4 Finishers in the Best Late Best Early Group Triple Crown Saturdays CDX PIM BEL TOTAL 2009 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 12 12 11 35 Place 11 10 12 33 Show 11 10 8 29 4th 9 9 9 27 Total 43 41 40 124 Late 37 36 34 107 86 Early Only 6 5 6 17 14 2010 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 11 12 12 35 Place 11 10 10 31 Show 12 8 11 31 4th 8 9 11 28 Total 42 39 44 125 Late 34 31 33 98 78 Early Only 8 8 11 27 22 2011 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 11 10 10 32 Place 13 8 11 31 Show 10 11 10 31 4th 9 12 9 30 Total 43 41 40 124 Late 32 33 33 98 79 Early Only 11 8 7 26 21 Here is a very key point perhaps the most valuable piece of handicapping information you will use for handicapping the full race cards on Triple Crown Saturdays An overwhelming majority of the top four finishers shown in the chart above were in the Best Late List A much smaller number were in only the Best Early List In 2009 86 107 of 124 of the horses in the Best Late Best Early Group that finished
22. orse s best 2 out of its last 3 races This shows that 8 of the 10 Kentucky Derby winners ranked in the top three of the BRIS Speed 2 3 and the BRIS Combined 2 3 factors BRIS figures are standard in ALL Ways Software ALL Ways Software also includes the unique velocity based Hall pace and speed figures that use the concept of conservation of energy to normalize the pace and speed figures to the exact distance of today s race ALL Ways Software also includes a Comprehensive Rating similar to but more comprehensive than the BRIS Prime Power Rating The chart below shows the results of using both sets of factors Races Won by a Horse Ranked in the Top 3 for the Factor Kentucky Derby Factor Races Won BRIS or Hall Speed 2 3 9 of 10 BRIS or Hall Combined 2 3 9 of 10 BRIS or Hall Late 2 3 7 of 10 BRIS Power or ALL Ways Comp 9 of 10 ranked in the top 3 for BRIS and or Hall Speed 2 3 AND for BRIS and or the Hall Combined 2 3 AND for BRIS Prime Power and or ALL Ways Comprehensive The power of this statement is the word AND Handicapping the Kentucky Derby The Kentucky Derby always has large fields Both the 2009 and 2010 Kentucky Derby races had 20 horse fields Nineteen horses ran in 2011 One good way to approach the Kentucky Derby is to start by trying to reduce the number of horses in this large field that you will give serious consideration to for your wagers Some horses will of course just jump out at you as not h
23. r pace considerations Check horses that are not in any group to see if there is a reason to include any of them in your wagers This is where you look for the potential Missing Horses discussed earlier Check the powerful Best Late List to make sure you are not missing a high priced closer Consider adding a horse that is only in the Best Early List but only if the horse is in at least one of the other groups In 2009 17 out of the 17 Best Early only horses were in at least one other group In 2010 it was 26 of 27 In 2011 it was 26 of 26 Check the proprietary Hall pace and speed figures also giving horses you like extra credit for being in more than one Group and or for being designated by ALL Ways as a Dangerous Non Contender For the Kentucky Derby Preakness and Belmont Stakes races be sure to review the handicapping factors presented early on in this article covering these three big races So why bother The three Triple Crown Saturdays present some of the year s best wagering opportunities of the year Consider these points First Exacta Trifecta and Superfecta payoffs are generally very good Considering all 39 races run at all three tracks in 2010 14 Exactas paid over 100 20 Trifectas paid over 500 and 27 Superfectas paid over 1 000 including 15 over 4 000 In 2011 14 Exactas paid more than 100 18 Trifectas paid more than 500 and 23 Superfectas paid more than 1 000 including 13 over
24. rse comparisons and then classifies some horses as primary Contenders These Contenders on average generally account for about half the field or less The chart below shows how well these designated Contenders performed in 2009 2010 and 2011 Continue Number of 4 Finishers in the Contenders Group Triple Crown Saturdays CDX PIM BEL TOTAL 2009 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 11 11 11 33 Place 11 8 13 32 Show 8 12 8 28 4th 8 8 9 25 Total 38 39 41 118 2010 Races 13 13 13 39 Win 9 10 10 29 Place 9 9 9 27 Show 10 6 8 24 4th 8 9 5 22 Total 36 34 32 102 2011 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 7 10 8 25 Place 10 7 11 28 Show 11 8 9 28 4th 5 10 7 22 Total 33 35 35 103 As the high payoffs shown earlier indicate these figures reflect the more contentious nature of the races in 2011 similar to 2010 Remember this is just one group The real power comes from looking at all four of the groups Using Churchill Downs as an example in 2011 the Contender Group picked up 33 of the 52 top 4 finishers This also means the other three groups found 18 additional top 4 finishers for a total of 51 of the 52 horses 2 The Key Horse Candidates Group Focusing mainly on the Win Place and Show positions ALL Ways uses extensive information to identify four horses from which you may want to select a Key Horse for your wagers Four horses are designated so you can exclude the favorite and still have three non favorite Key Horse po
25. s no need to even look at the ALL Ways User Manual Just print the two handicapping reports and use them as Tip Sheets And by investing ten minutes or so to prepare for Kentucky Derby Saturday you will also be all set up for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes Saturdays What s New Page on Frandsen com ALL Ways Starter Packages ALL Ways Software is widely considered to be one of the best handicapping and wager tools in the industry Phillips Racing Newsletter gave ALL Ways an unprecedented 9 rating the highest ever awarded As you use the software ALL Ways automatically builds a race database for each track you play ALL Ways then uses this to automatically optimize its handicapping to the specific race being handicapped at the specific track you are playing With these new short learning curve Starter Packages you will be able to use ALL Ways right out of the box and quickly reap the benefits of ALL Ways unique powerful handicapping features And it is a solid investment For just the special Starter Package price of 99 you get the free full Professional Edition of ALL Ways Software a large database for the track 3 free ALL Ways data files for upcoming races and a free printed ALL Ways User Manual ALL Ways is particularly strong for handicappers who are investigative and analytical The Impact Value Analysis reveals the power and profitability of 87 key handicapping factors The Gap A
26. ssibilities The four Key Horse Candidates are also ranked based on their probability of finishing in the money Here is how many of the Win Place and Show horses that came out of the Key Horse Group in 2009 2010 and 2011 Number of Top 3 Finishers in the Key Horse Candidates Group Triple Crown Saturdays CDX PIM BEL TOTAL 2009 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 12 10 9 31 Place 10 7 11 28 Show 7 8 6 21 Total 29 25 26 80 2010 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 9 10 9 28 Place 9 8 9 26 Show 8 7 8 23 Total 26 25 26 77 2011 Races 13 13 13 39 v Win 8 8 9 25 Place 7 7 10 24 Show 11 6 8 25 Total 26 21 27 74 Using Churchill Downs as an example 2011 an impressive 26 of the 39 Win 8 Place 7 and Show 11 horses were in the Key Horse Group Keep in mind that only four horses in a race are classified as Key Horse Candidates One very effective way to select the non favorite Key Horse to use in your wagers is to look for Key Horse Candidates that are also in one or more of the other three designated groups 3 The Best Late Best Early Group The Search Handicapping Report in ALL Ways includes list of horses that ALL Ways considers to be the Best Late horses in the race and it includes a separate list of horses that ALL Ways considers to be the Best Early horses in the ALL Ways uses the BRIS Late factor Final Fraction plus Speed and BRIS Total factor Early Pace plus Speed to make these determinations It is possible f
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