pdf, 2 MB, 42 pages - CAPRI Modelling System
Contents
1. CAPRI worksteps Scenario description 5 Build database Enter scenario name Generate baseline l CAPRI tasks Enter scenario description Define scenario Run scenario with market model Run scenario without market model Scenario elements Downscale scenario results t britz capri gams scen base_scenarios mtr_rd gms gt Run policy experiment with CGE Define basis scenario file Sontext Scenario categories E d base scenarios CAPRI project german renewable energy legislation ghg emission abatement input demand J macro environment J market support NLimits Premiums GAMS file MTR_RD GMS purpose Health check scenario with rural development elements Current baseline scenario Price shocks author Torbj rn Jansson SLU set aside date 09 02 10 trade policies refDoc yield shocks seeAlso calledBy Sofftext INCLUDE policy mtr market gms GAMS Graphical User Interface Generator Wolfgang Britz 2012 i L R poe INCLUDE pol _input mtr_hc gms Institute for i i i i 1 Food and Resource Economics CAPRI Ini file caprinew ini User name undefined User type administrator Choosing the task adds the panel with GUI elements shown above The pane2. CAPRI GUI ersion 3 0 August 2010 Ini file capri ini User name Wolfgang Britz User type administrator Choosing a initialization file Some users require several CAPRI versions installed in parallel In order to ease the task the user can call the GUI with a specific ini file by defining the ini file in the batch command file calling the GUI Alternatively the ini file can be changed via the options menu Each ini file may then point to different directories according to the settings discussed in the following E3 CAPRI t britz capri gams sauce Utilities Help Edit settings Load settings from ini file Save cun ent settings to ini file Remove task specific settings O Generate baseline I Linking the GUI to the local CAPRI installation Next the GUI needs to know where your CAPRI system is installed User Settings CAPRI System Settings Gams svn Other options CAPRI model files directory britz capri gams Result Directory britz results es britz capri restart britz capri dat Data Files Directory The CAPRI model files directory points to the location of the GAMS sources for CAPRI whereas the Result directory points to the location where results from CAPRI tasks will be read from and written from and accordingly for Restart and Data Files directories Changing these settings allows switching between different installations for adv
3. Oils 205584 44 13918 69 136757 5 120013 70 1741 88 1001050 25 37091 25 137437 98 337978 94 195813 75 55642 90 14016 00 Eha FE a J sues tome v El 210238 0 14251 60 130109 6 12016 45 1759 39 1020791 8 8 37398 39 137269 7 340402 31 12863 83 196654 47 55598 89 14119 27 208586 9 A 14133 86 13105 66 120204 27 1763 01 1016495 88 37248 33 137268 14 339717 59 12744 34 196972 20 55582 99 14148 46 Po 27164 09 27414 88 27488 23 Available tables There are table to track the change in quantities supply and feed from the supply models for the activities and premiums and for prices The latter one shows both the prices returned from the market models as the ones sent to the next solve of the supply models A further tables reports the seconds needed for the different steps 4 Index CAPRI installation 8 drawing several maps 34 Gams settings 8 Loggin in 7 map with percentage changes 31 Online help 11 SVN settings 9 42
4. Windows amp Exploitation of spatial results Data iew 1 Activity Items Table uaa no S ai Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitrogen kg Miha Agri Eny indicators driving Forces J C El 4 gri En indicators driving Forces 4gri Eny indicators pressures and benefits aes Economic indicators at HSMU level H2566 Climate soil slope and alitude H2667 Results From ONC meta model H236 Next we need to find the correct item and in order to do so the drop down list for the items must be selected and the indicator 23 selected as seen below 28 Exploitation of spatial results Data iew 1 Activity Items Table uaa No 15 Gross Nitrogen Balance kg Niha a Agri Env indicators pressures and benefits Mo 15 Gross Nitrogen Balance kg Wiha No 16 Risk of Pollution by Phosphorous surplus in kg P2OS ha Mo 18 mmonia emissions kg Miha Mo 19 Green House Gas Emissions CO equivalents ha Mo 23 High Value Farmland Indicator Index 1 10 Mo 234 Shannon index on non grass land crop n dex 0 1 Mo 23b Share of arable crops 0 1 No 23c M Fertilising index arable Index 0 1 H2870 Those numbers should now be shown as a map To do so select Map from the drop down list where Table is shown amp Exploitation of spatial results Data iew 1 Activity Items Table uaa v No 23 High value Farmland Indicator Index 1 10 v Agri Env indicators pressure
5. years and for which base year Equally the farm type module may be switched on or off Build regional data base CAPREG Currently the same as three only that the base year data will be loaded instead of time series Build global data base GLOBAL Building up the international data base The step includes aggregation of Supply Utilization Accounts and bilateral trade flow matrices from FAO to the product and country definitions of CAPRI aggregation of the supply and demand elasticities from the World Food Model to the product and country estimation of bi lateral transport costs and conversion of the FAPRI baseline to the product and regional aggregation of CAPRI 15 7 Build HSMU data base CAPDIS_GRID spatial downscaling of regional results for the base year to 1x1 km grid cells The underlying methodology for the different work steps is described in detail in the CAPRI model documentation The sequence of the tasks as described above follows the work flows It should be mentioned that certain preparatory steps as downloading updated data from EuroStat and converting these data into GAMS tables read by CoCo and CAPREG are no yet integrated in the GUI The actual controls available will depend on task Please use the F1 button to open the online help to get detailed information on settings for the tasks 16 The work step Generate baseline Graph the task panel for Generate baseline tasks
6. 00 lt 0 99 0 988 28 034 D 2 lt 1 98 1 975 3 972 Ss 3 lt 2 96 2 963 18 063 Ss 4 lt 3 95 3 951 7 123 D 5 lt 4 94 4 938 g7 6 lt 5 93 5 926 6 731 m lt 6 91 6 914 7 066 as 3 lt 7 90 7 901 4 93 Ss 9 lt 8 89 8 889 5 312 D 10 lt 9 88 9 877 2 507 Ds Cummulative distribution graph Y Frequency groups 1 oy V Draw mean and 1 std dev 0 99 1 3 2 96 3 95 4 94 5 93 6 91 7 90 8 89 1754 i l 0 00 i k 0 46 3 23 6 00 Show small circles showing distribution of regions n 1755 0 Min 0 0 J Show rectangle representating distribution of classes Mean 3 227785 Max 9 876518 JV Shrink polygons according to share of UAA Std Dev 2 772104 Draw outline in same color Dimension shown in columns of result window For current region Scenario Dimension shown in rows of result window For current region Activity Title on top of map Btandard title v pee Customize view arial x fit x plain x Fraction digits and decimal separator lz x J x Column width 625 Row width 624 Separator between merged data dime JV Use default pivoting For tables J Hide empty rows J Hide empty columns Comparison output ony values Data dimension used for comparisons Hmsus gt Element used for comparisons Jeezixeses O Sd ok That should give the following map which then can be exported to other applications via the clipboard or can be send to the printer E 30 Scen
7. Generate expost results i Generate trend projection Generate farm type trends Baseline calibration market model Baseline calibration supply models Baseline calibration farm types HSMU baseline Calibrate CGE Re calibrate behavioural functions CGE Run test shocks with CGE For manifold reasons discussed in methodological papers economic models as CAPRI are not suited for projections but as tools for counterfactual analysis against an existing comparison point or an existing set of ex ante time series The point in time or these time series are called base line or reference run CAPRI runners which use the model for ex ante policy simulation do not need to construct their own baseline but are typically better off by sticking to the baseline provided on a yearly basis along with the latest version of the GAMS code data base and software Accordingly the step and the included tasks are only for user type administrator According to current planning the baseline will be updated in close co operation with DG AGRI twice a year in early summer and early winter following the release of a new medium term market outlook by DG AGRI The CAPRI baseline is a mix of trends expert knowledge and automated checks for logical consistency and is constructed by a sequences of tasks 1 Generation of ex post results Albeit not strictly necessary for the base line the ex post results often prove quite helpful when analysing
8. market clearing prices for young animals and finally a global spatial multi commodity model for main agricultural products and selected secondary processed products Differences in results between simulations may be rooted in three different blocks 1 Differences in the in going base year data and baseline CAPRI allows several base years and calibration points to co exist and users may choose the base and baseline year 2 Difference in what economic models are linked together and in the regionalisation level as the user may switch the market modules on or off may run the model at Member State NUTS II and 20 farm type level or with the regional CGEs switch on or off The CGE can also used in stand alone mode 3 And finally the most common differences in the exogenous assumptions including the policy definition Graph The interface for the tasks Run scenario General settings Modules and algorithm Reporting Methodological switches CGE Debug options General settings Scenario description v agenda v vo B 9 gg Base year 2004 w Scenario description CGE v cge_rd_noChg X 2011 a 2012 2015 dua Use new global version z020 E Simulation years FU28 2030 2035 2040 lt 2045 Generate GAMS child processes on different threads v Regional breakdown NUTS2 X The following discusses the major settings General Settings e Scenario description the GAM
9. the pre steps of the market model to determine from the solution time of the sub model when the next more complex sub model or the full model will be solved Going above 100 might speed up solving the market model SVN settings CAPRI 1S hosted on the SVN software versioning system see e g http en wikipedia org wiki Apache Subversion which ensures that CAPRI users and developers can operate smoothly in a distributed network For developers who need to upload changes made to CAPRI code to the server a process called commit TortoiseSVN http tortoisesvn tigris org is the recommended tool TortoiseSVN is integrated nicely into windows but it might take a while until the logic behind the SVN operations is fully understood by a novice user For users which do not contribute to the code basis of CAPRI or use TortoiseSVN in other contexts installing and learning to master TortoiseSVN as an additional tool is an unnecessary burden Therefore the client based SVN basic operations which allow a user to keep its local copy synchronized with the 9 server are now embedded in the java code of the GUI For those who only need read only access to the CAPRI server repository an installation of TortoiseSVN is no longer necessary The changes necessary in the GUI can be summarized as follows Firstly new SVN related entries in the initialisation file can be edited by the user And secondly a new dialogue allows starting an update Th
10. the reference run The ex post results are model run for the base at base year policy and other exogenous parameters inflated to the chosen simulation year 2 Generation of the trend projection The trend projection task is rather time consuming and may run several days when the farm types are included It consists of several sub tasks Firstly independent trend lines for many different variables and all regions are estimated and for each of these trends lines statistics as R variance of the error terms etc are calculated These results together with the base period data and the policy shifts are used to define so called supports 1 e 17 the most probable values for the final projection These sub tasks are relatively fast The final consistency sub task is broken down in two iterations In the first iteration only the Member States consistency problems are solved For the different projection years the problem will look for minimal deviation from the supports which may be interpreted as a priori information in a Bayesian interpretation such that different necessary logical relations between the data are not violated the data information in a Bayesian estimator These relations define e g production as the product of yield and activity level or force close market balances The details can be found in the methodological documentation Once that step is done the Member states are added up to the EU level and new support a
11. the user group becomes more diversified Whereas in the first years almost all users had directly contributed to model development and were familiar with the underlying GAMS code more and more users now get to know about the system during training sessions and have only a limited knowledge of GAMS and the CAPRI GAMS code Already the very first version of CAPRI operational from 1999 onwards features a Graphical User Interface GUD to supports users to apply CAPRI for simulations and exploit results The so called new GUI in use since 2012 builds on a toolkit developed by Wolfgang Britz called GGIG GAMS Graphical Interface Generator http www ilr uni bonn de agpo staff britz ggig_e htm That toolkit is not only used for CAPRI but also for other GAMS and R based projects It allows designing the GUI via a XML file rather than by direct Java programming That implies that CAPRI developers will not only code GAMS but also add change or remove controls from the interface Hence changes to the interface are now more frequent than in the past The GUI user guide will therefore possibly not document all detailed settings especially quite specialized settings for debugging purposes It is generally documented to use the defaults for any non documented features As the CAPRI GUI is based on a toolkit shared with others the same holds on parts of its documentation which therefore consists to three documents 1 The GGIG programmer guide t
12. to the results of the baseline no longer endogenous Should normally be switched on Regional CGEs Switches the regional CGEs on and off Number of iterations with market models switched on CAPRI sequentially calibrates the market models to supply model results which are solved at prices from the market models Usually the model will automatically converge in between 5 and 20 iterations It is best to use 99 iterations as the default setting User lower price iterations weights after iteration That setting allows fine tuning the convergence process Normally a 50 50 weights between current and last iterations prices is used 22 The lower weights give less weight to the current iteration and more to past ones which might help in some cases with convergence e Update Hessian until iteration The price elasticities for supply and feed demand for countries with supply models are iteratively updated until the given number of iteration is reached Reporting General settings Modules and algorithm Reporting Debug options Methodological switches CGE CAPRI Reporting Aggregates for activities and commodities v Environmental Indicators v Life cycle assessment for energy V Multi functionality indicators V Iteration tracking vV Sensitivity experiments with features in supply model v The panel allows switching certain part of the post model reporting on and off It is usually recommended to use all rep
13. EO00000 ELO00000 ES000000 FRO00000 TROOOOOO DPGRCU 2006 eps eps eps eps 40 25 eps DPPULS 2006 100 100 100 100 100 100 eee DPDWHETR 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPDWHEES 2006 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 DPPARI 2006 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 DPSILA 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPPARI fa 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPSCOW 2006 eps eps eps 100 100 100 eps DPBULF 2006 eps 75 eps eps eps eps eps DPDCOW 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPSHGM 2006 eps 50 eps eps 50 50 eps DPEXTENS 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPPOTA 2006 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 DPNE_ SHGM 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPNE_ Dcow 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPNE_ MEAT 2006 eps eps eps eps eps eps eps DPSL_ADCT 2006 100 eps eps eps 40 40 eps DPSL_CALY 2006 100 eps eps eps 100 100 eps DPNATMILK 2006 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 DPENERCRP 2006 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Storing the scenario then generates a file as shown below user name the reference to CAPMOD GMS and the date and time are automatically added by the GUI The files will be added to the files stored in gams pol input Run scenario tasks At the core of CAPRI stands its simulation engine which iteratively links different types of economic models aggregate programming models at regional or farm type level with an explicit representation of agricultural production technology aggregated versions of these models at Member States model linked together to derive
14. I e capril gams View Handling Windows Scenario exploitation Data iew 2 olx ioixi Activity Items Table Activity Items Table Juaa 7 no 5 a Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitrogen kg N ha 7 agr Env indicators driving forces ka Juaa no 5 a Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitrogen kg N ha agr Env indicators driving forces Me gl i A ER st Mi EAN E frase x Now for the map with the results for 2013 we should switch to percentage difference to the year 2002 by opening the tool dialog Al There under Comparison output choose Only percentage difference Select Years under Data dimension used for comparisons and ensure that 2002 is selected in Element used for comparisons Customize view Fraction digits and decimal separator fe J Column width 624 Row width ey Separator between merged data dimensions JV Use default pivoting for tables Hide empty rows J Hide empty columns Comparison output Only percentage difference Data dimension used for comparisons ESE Element used For comparisons o2 H fecal Now we should get a result as below CAPRI e caprit gams View Handling Windows Scenario exploitation Data iew 2 oO xj Scenario exploitation Data iew 1 Activity Items Table Activity Items Table uaa x Ino 5 a Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitr
15. Markets Prices d Farm Ome Hectares or Crop HSMuU F roha or herd size share Animal DNOC p ad 1000 ha or hds density vironme Manure output per animal ooo Environment Put p Frie Multi Functionality P Environmental indicators per activity heads ha Energy Nutrient balances 5327 Wo table Nutrient balances soil details Nutrient balances gas losses Nutrient balances compare Member States Oilseeds P 2 20 Nutrient balances mapping view Methane emissions M20 emissions Other arable r 5 05 crops Energy and Ressource consumption Production per 3317 92 67 13 1977 45 26 The following map should appear You may select different elements of the balance now by using the drop down box below activity or change the nutrient by using the drop down box under nutrient CAPRI e capril gams View Handling Windows lt CAPREG base year Data View 1 SEE Table Activity Nutrient 3 sag a ro Q Q rau Map finort by mineral Fertizer 1000 o kha N P205 20 Race Mi ae d J EEE ED MEDD ODMdADEODO ae 6aanee oom 090o o o E E E SSS 3 70 lt 31 13 lt 71 45 106 45 CAPRI GUI Version 1 2 4 Oct 2007 User name Wolfgang Britz User type Administrator Drawing a map of the High Nature Value Farmland indicator for Belgium amp Luxembourg for the base year Firstly we need to select Exploit data base results in the
16. S file which comprises the settings for policy and further exogenous variables for a simulation The files are stored in gams pol input or sub directories thereof and must be valid GAMS code Use a text editor as e g the GAMS GUI to manipulate the files and generate new ones Pressing F2 opens the file in the editor if one is defined via the settings menu e Generate GAMS child processes on different threads uses parallel GAMS processor to exploit multi processor machines e Use new global version should be on Refers to the latest release from FAOSTAT e EU28 Include Croatia into EU aggregate and uses flexible EU aggregates depending on the time point e Base year determines the three year average underlying the regional see Build regional data base and global data base see Build regional data base and the trends see Generate trend projection e Simulation years the years for which results are generated and trends are loaded e Countries if the global market model is switched off run scenario without market model the user may run a simulation for selected Member States only 21 Regional break down the level of regional dis aggregation in the supply part It is not longer recommended to use the Member State level for production runs Modules and algorithm General settings Modules and algorithm Reporting Methodological switches ce Debug options Modules and algorithm Global spatial
17. The Graphical User Interface for CAPRI version 2014 Wolfgang Britz Institute for Food and Resource Economics Chair of Economic and Agricultural Policy University of Bonn Bonn July 2014 Acknowledgments Many people have over the years contributed to the development maintenance and application of the CAPRI modelling system After more than ten years since a first prototype was constructed it 1s almost impossible to list them all and name their specific contributions The author opted for this rather technical paper to refrain from citing the different working papers which shed more light on methodological questions but rather refers in general to the CAPRI documentation Nevertheless it is only fair to mention Hans Josef Greuel and Andrea Zintl who both long before CAPRI was born have already developed software concepts and code which underlined to a large extent until 2006 the DBMS of CAPRI and in parts its Graphical User Interface Finally Alexander Gocht contributed over the last years to the Java code underlying the GUI Eriona Dashyja a student assistance checked in 2011 the user manual against the actual interface changed the text where necessary and corrected typos The work described in here would have been impossible without the funds by different donors mainly the EU Commission with regards to changes in 2009 until 2013 especially under the FP 7 project CAPRI RD All errors in text and code remain with the author Th
18. a N a Ra 14 Theworkstep Generate Daselihe noriieinsi gesinnen pe a e aS 17 The task tun Scena Osia e R a a R aR a 19 Denne scenaro tas kE niao aae a E aaa toicepeatulvenats 19 R n scenario tasko 3 ois conte sic 85 6 e R A N R a RA 20 Interaction With GA MS anioe a A A 24 Explore result Seis n a A E a 25 Drawing a map showing the nitrate surplus for EU27 at regional level in the base year 26 Drawing a map of the High Nature Value Farmland indicator for Belgium amp Luxembourg for the base Drawing a map showing changes between the base year and the ex ante results from the baseline 31 Drawing a map with the base year results next to one showing changes from the base year to the DSe ne r 0 ES Rune aes ear Gie a Mee en re enece iee on ener ere eee ane ne ene eae 34 Using the GDX viewer an example loading data from the spatial downscaling cccccseeeeeeeeees 36 Tracking theit eration behaviour of CAP RI js sscnscc ses chests a deal Scohlec ates eee dnierasees 40 BACK Or OU ss ata ocd esc heehee haa te atau red edad telat us aletet vn hetadaacnncteuehaces aadeceveadeadiunsnensuncmaaeteateneveabeds 40 HON tO Use thie hac KAN O0 lenna a 40 SOME tEChnical Dack orou Nds E E 40 Starine the trackine tooland TelO AIG ssis E E E iveelde 40 ANE DE Suea a A EE E E ee ere 4 DL a EE ates aac thats caisson gett oi ig tts acta E EE E EO E 42 Background The use of the CAPRI modelling system is increasing and
19. al level base year and simulation year Operating these control filters out files from the disk shown in the drop down boxes In the example above only results files for the base 04 simulation year 20 and the regional level 2 NUTS2 can be selected 25 Drawing a map showing the nitrate surplus for EU27 at regional level in the base year First we need to select Exploit data base results in the work step selection panel and then choose the radio button Show CAPREG base year data Then in the Member States drop down list right click the mouse and select EU27 The Load and show button will then load the results CAPRI e capril gams View Handling Windows CAPREG base year Data View 1 Table Region pome a EE E Income Hectares or Crop Production per Euro ha or herd size share Animal UAAR head 1000 ha or hds density kg a or 0 01 animals heads ha 3317 92 373 27 63 49 2 28 67 13 1086 43 140 57 5 05 1977 45 Next select a different selection of tables by pressing on the button below Table which currently shows the topic Supply details In the drop down list go to Environment and select Nutrient balances mapping view CAPRI e capri1 gams View Handling Windows CAPREG base year Data View 1 Table Region Welfare b nark 4 aS b
20. anced users e g when different branches from the CAPRI software versioning system are installed GAMS settings In order to generate results a GAMS installation and license are required The relevant settings are found on the GAMS tab User Settings CAPRI System Settings GAMS syn Other options Path to GAMS exe D gams24 0 gams exe GAMS scratch Directory d scrdir GAMS Opti threads 8 Number of processors used in GAMS Get the number of processors Processor speed relative 100 2 4 GH Intel core 2 l Save in caprinew ini l The Path to Gams exe points to the actual GAMS engine to use Currently versions 22 8 and higher are supported It is recommended to use GAMS 23 3 and above to benefit from calling CONOPT in memory The button get the number of processors will retrieve the number of available processors in the computer The Scratch Directory will be passed to GAMS and determines where GAMS stores temporary files A directory on a local disk not one on a file server should be chosen The GAMS options field allows the user to send its own settings to GAMS e g as shown above the page width used in GAMS listings and the number of maximal process dirs generates by GAMs The number of processors used in GAMS will determine how many parallel GAMS processes will be started with threads are in use The relative processor speed is used in
21. ang Britz User type Administrator a xobs_FI_ a xobs_FI_ a xobs_FR a xobs_FR a xobs_HU a xobs_HU a xobs_IR_ a xobs_IR_ a xobs_IT_ a xobs_IT_ a xobs_LT_ a xobs_LT_ a xobs_L _ a xobs_L a xobs_MT gt If one wishes to see the information for several Member States simultaneously one may click on Load gdx file again and add additional files Afterwards the lines with the parameters XOBS should be selected 37 CAPRI T britz CAPRI gams File Options Help Work step selection List of tables loaded from GDX file s Build database T britz CAPRI results Capdis xobs_DK_0202 gdx Generate baseline user input name type dims records long text XOBS parameter 3 127309 Result area used by CAPDIS Run simulation META set 4 424 T britz CAPRI results Capdis xobs_SE_0202 gdx user input name type dims records long text XOBS parameter 3 344083 Result area used by CAPDIS Collect meta information Batch execution Generate GAMS documentation Exploit gdx files Load gdx file Load selected tables s CAPRI GUI ersion 1 6 November 2008 User name Wolfgang Britz User type Administrator X Pressing load selected tables will open the following dialogue choose E i Choose how to join the information From the parameters As otherwise the program will introduce a new dimension for the data loaded
22. ario 36 EA CAPRI T britz CAPRI gams File Options Help Work step selection Build database Generate baseline Run simulation Collect meta information Batch execution Generate GAMS documentation Exploit gdx files List of tables loaded from GDx files F4 Choose the gdx file to load Suchen in Capdis Zuletzt verwendete Dokumente 3 Desktop x ED y Eigene Dateien 98 Arbeitsplatz amp Netzwerkumgebu tee g xdnde_PT_0202 qdx a xdnde_PT_0213MTRSTD gdx g xdnde_RO_0213MTRSTD gdx a xdnde_SE_0202 gdx a xdnde_SE_0213MTRSTD gdx a xdnde_SI_0213MTRSTD adx g xdnde_SK_0213MTRSTD gdx a xdnde_UK_0202 qdx a xdnde_UK_0213MTRSTD gdx a xobs_AT_0202 gdx g xobs_AT_0213MTRSTD gdx g xobs_BG_0202 gdx xobs_BG_0213MTRSTD gdx g xobs_BL_0202 adx a xobs_BL_0213MTRSTD gdx lt a xobs_Cz_0202 gdx xobs_CZ_0213MTRSTD gdx a xobs_DE_0202 gdx a xobs_DE_0213BIOF_D10E10 gdx g xobs_DE_0213BIOF_D2E2 gdx a xobs_DE_0213MTRSTD adx 6 xobs_DK_0202 qdx a xobs_DK_0213MTRSTD adx g xobs_EE_0202 adx a xobs_EE_0213MTRSTD gdx g xobs_EL_0202 gdx a xobs_EL_0213MRSTD adx a xobs_EL_0213MTRSTD adx g xobs_ES_0202 qdx a xobs_ES_0213MTRSTD gdx Lith Dateiname xobs_DK_0202 gdx Dateityp GAMS gdx files xj Load gdx file Load selected tables s CAPRI GUI ersion 1 6 November 2008 User name Wolfg
23. ario BASE Drawing a map showing changes between the base year and the ex ante results from the baseline When scenarios or different points are compared with each other it 1s often useful to draw maps which show relative or absolute changes The following map is the typical starting point when the baseline is analyzed two maps with identical class definitions one for the base and one for the projection year el Diag 5 NIA BB Years 31 In order to draw a map with changes we must first get rid of the base year by de selecting the first map gt This is done by using the column selection button E gt which is found in the upper right corner of the window When the button is double clicked a dialog opens and one can select the projection year with the mouse only Afterwards the left map will no longer be present Selection dialog for Table columns x Enter search pattern in field and use buttons or use mouse to define selections Clear selection add pattern to labels Add pattern to labels Remove pattern from labels Lies can be selected with the mouse OK Cancel Next we need to change the absolute values shown in the map to relative changes to the base year That can be accomplished by using the tool dialogue press button In the tool dialogue select only percentage differences in the drop down box labeled comparison output and then put the data d
24. be excluded from the classification by increasing the Number of regions with larger numbers to exclude from class definition in the example below the number had been set to 20 Map option dialogue xi I Color table Green yellow red v Classification method Quantile v Number of classes 5m Number of regions with small values to remove from class definition m easta 2013 Number of regions with large values to remove from class definition b Legend Separate rectangles v N 32 lt 14 4 lt 7 7 lt 163 1 2 3 14 lt 4 4 063 4 5 J n A 3 i i i 1 i i 1 i 1 i 1 100 J Show small circles showing distribution of regions n 920 0 JV Show rectangle representating distribution of classes Min 100 0 Mean 9 734732 Draw no outline b Median 8 673334 Max 162 76825 Std Dev 810 98126 J Set value for color change from Green yellow red Dimension shown in columns of result window For current region rears Dimension shown in rows of result window For current region Jactivity v C imimimi ok C nn KE 100 32 32 lt 14 14 lt 4 4 7 7 163 33 Drawing a map with the base year results next to one showing changes from the base year to the baseline results There are two ways to draw different maps If more then one column is selected in the underlyi
25. content of the panel hence changes when the user selects a different work step Again the different task panels comprise radio buttons for selections purposes Note Some utilities which were in older version of the GUI listed as work steps can now found under Utilities in the menu bar such as the GDX Viewer Build database Graph the task panel for build database tasks Prepare national database 0 Finish national database Find No of fts in Nuts Define fts from FSS Build regional time series 0 Build regional database Build global database Build HSMU database Building up the data base is the logical starting point in sequences of work steps A new data base for the model needs to be constructed either after updates of the underlying statistical raw data or after methodological changes in the code affecting content and structure of the data base Controlling if 14 updating the model yielded satisfactory results possibly for the different tasks is a time demanding task which requires in depth knowledge about the quality of the different in going data and the logical relations between the different elements of the data base Users interested in ex ante policy analysis are usually better off by taking the data base as given and consequently the work step is disabled for users which have no administrator status The work step consists of six different tasks I Prepare nati
26. ction with GAMS The interaction with GAMS consists of three parts e Generating GAMS code based on user input e Starting GAMS e Controlling the GAMS run There are two types of input files generated based on user input The first one are so called scenario files and define the exogenous drivers for a CAPRI run as population growth macro economic environment or policy definitions Here the final aim is to integrate the scenario editor from SEAMLESS into the CAPRI user interface The scenario files are typically stored for longer period on disk both to provide templates for other scenarios as well as for documentation purposes The name of the file to load is passed to GAMS either as an argument or stored in an input file with a fixed name The second types are rather small files with a fixed name which typically comprise the information for which years and regions to run the GAMS program along with a small number of methodological switches These files are overwritten with each Start of the related GAMS code GAMS is started as a sub process in an own thread The output from GAMS which is typically shown in command processor window is redirected into a pipe and its content read from there and shown in a window on the CAPRI user interface so that the user can check GAMS execution at run time The code allows filtering out specific statements generated by GAMS to be shown in the windows title bar to give an indication about program progress The
27. e following sections give a quick overview over the new functionalities The set up of the SVN related information is discussed in the general GGIG user Guide 10 Getting help CAPRI T britz CAPRI gams File Options EA Work step sel Orkhe Help apare Open content of Online Help via CAPRI web page Build datal Open GUI document on CAPRI web page Generate Open CAPRI documentation on the web Open CAPRI web page O Run simul Send mail to CAPRI user list Last year The Help menu allows opening the online help system which can be invoked by pressing F1 A copy of the content is also stored on the CAPRI web page and can be accessed via the second menu item Open GUI document on CAPRI web page will open the current document 11 Basic layout of the GUI The GUI is generally structured as seen below The left upper hand panel allows the selection of the different CAPRI work steps The left lower hand panel lists the tasks belonging to the work steps In both cases only one button will be active The right hand side offers controls depending on the properties of the task grouped on different panes There are buttons allowing starting the task and a window which collects information at runtime The footer lists the user name and type and comprises a progress bar For tasks linked to a GAMS program the buttons as shown below will be active e compile GAMS starts the GAMS compiler bu
28. e author Dr Wolfgang Britz is a senior researcher and lecturer with the Institute for Food and Resource Economics at the University of Bonn and has co ordinated since several years the activities based on the CAPRI modelling system His responsibilities further on include the methodological concept of CAPRI and to a larger extent its software implementation Contact Dr Wolfgang Britz Institute for Food and Resource Economics University Bonn Nussallee 21 D 53115 Bonn Tel 49 0 228 732502 Wolfgang Britz ilr uni bonn de Content F216 240 01 AVG men ee rere Renter nme RROTE Re nee TREN eT NE ER RRC ee gee ere ne Reet eee ene eee eer eee 6 FOT AS FIN 10161 0 e a nn mn rn Mine MERCED O Ra rere ONE ne crm nnn eM enn re eect mn ee ere rere me ne ee ene eee 7 USS AN A sae hs EE alk see eae sania cles oc sane IE NE E E E E 7 Chocim a minano Bll ce omne Name enen meron neon te a aimee ne nen nr neon net Cnn em nant een aver 7 Linking the GUL to the local CAPRI installatiOn si sicouseeesihedcdnden chon svieacdsetvesees csbucci ted vacuensveescdeutiaeeeuhadsecs 8 GOAN fo RSS HLT VES Re Oe ee an ne CONE en ee eo OnE Rm en oer eae OREN Ree en ere 8 BS UM aah Banca eee ce aes E si eee d 9 GATE Le OEE Me Re Ree Amn CR E EOE ORS S TO RT PES es E A gO A EEEE E S E 1 E AED 8 0 i aves G4 Gh E EE mente E OE E mnie E ter Perth tan met nnn Uae E Overt Manet nnn E Ste 12 TUG diferent Work SIEDS sas 508 G55 tai s ea aa a A 14 WTA AD ASS
29. from the different files and you will not be able to see the information for DK and SE together in one map Afterwards the selected records will be loaded from the files Depending on the amounts of records that may take several seconds Before turning to the mapping view only one column should be selected Press on the button left of SWHE in the table headers Open selection dialog for table column and select with the mouse one of the codes then press o k The table should now comprise only one column Afterwards use the drop down list with the viewing options and 38 choose map as shown below Choose HSMU to select the geometry for the HSMUs The program will now load the geometry for the HSMU and draw the map which takes several seconds 39 Tracking the iteration behaviour of CAPRI Background CAPRI uses an iterative link between the supply and market modules In some cases a complete model run may take quite some time Knowledge about the intermediate results during iterations may help to decide about the success of the current run That is especially due during debug exercises where structural changes are introduced Since quite a while CAPRUI therefore comprises instruments to check the outcome already during the model s execution For quite a while a XML XLST solution was used which is now replaced by a GX JAVA one which is discussed in here How to use the tracking tool Some
30. hat document is only relevant for CAPRI coders who add or change controls on the interface 2 The GGIG user guide that essential document explains how the different elements of the interface can be operated e g how to work with tables and graphs how to use the batch execution utility etc It is shared with other projects and comprises to a larger extent content found in earlier CAPRI user guides 3 The CAPRI GUI guide the current document which discusses the specifics of the CAPRI GUI and comprises some examples not relevant for other projects using GGIG Initialization Logging in The first step when the CAPRI GUI is opened for the first time is to set the user name and level This is done by selecting the settings menu from the menu bar As long as no user name is entered the user cannot change its type and will only have exploitation rights The user type runner has additionally the right to run scenarios A user of type administrator can perform all operations including generation of a new data base and calibration of the modelling system In order to access the user settings choose gt File Utilities GUI Help CA Edit settings Load settings from ini file Save current settings to ini file Remove task specific settings fro m the menu bar Option Option User ik wolfgang Britz User Type The user and user types can also be seen in the bottom panel of the GUI
31. imension used for comparisons to Years The Element used for comparisons should be 2002 After pressing o k the map will change as shown l Customize view S Arial x ji plain x Fraction digits and decimal separator 2 v Column width 69 3 Row width 694 Separator between merged data dimensions v x Arial x fir gt plain x Fraction digits and decimal separator 2 x j Column width 69 Row width EZE Separator between merged data dimensions v JV Use default pivoting for tables JV Use default pivoting for tables I Hide empty rows I Hide empty rows Hide empty columns Comparison output ony values O l Only values values and percentage difference values and absolute difference Element used for compari T Ea Only absolute difference R Normalisation I Hide empty columns show only selected items v Long texts only x Comparison output Jonly values Data dimension used for comparisons Years v Data dimension 32 Years 2013 BEBOBE a C O OW ae eee 100 00 lt 31 46 31 46 lt 13 41 13 41 lt 2 88 2 88 lt 8 01 8 01 lt 463350 69 Now there are two things we would most probably like to change the number of digits shown in the legend and getting rid of very large values shown in the legend The number of digits can be changed with the tool dialogue by changing the fraction digits Large numbers can
32. l consist of two major panes 1 A top pane where the user can enter a name for his new scenario and a description text 2 A bottom pane where the user can define the base scenario to start with currently in the trunk MTR_RD gms and the snippet to add The available snippets and their structure are shown on the left hand side in an expandable tree which shows the sub directories found under gams scen with the exclusion of a sub directory called baseScenarios and the svn directories Empty directories are not shown The user may select any number of snippets even several from the 19 same sub directory Double clicking on one of the snippets shows the content of the file on the right hand side so that the user can inspect the code as seen below in more detail GAMS keywords are shown in red comments in yellow and strings in green He can also edit the file changes are shown in blue Once changes had been saved the tree shows a user modified behind the category The user can also remove the changes from snippets Scenario elements D TS2009 gams scen baseScenarios mtrstd gms Define basis scenario file O Scenario categories 5 Biofuels biof D10E2 3 Premiums B Coupling Fully decoupled partial decoupling H O Distribution Farm premium option kill COPT 5 WTO Policy i wtohrb I MBI corTi Coupling degree for each payment and member state BLOOOOOO DKO00000 D
33. multi commodity model V Number ofiterations 99 0 Endogenous bio fuel markets in global market model Use lower price iterations weights after iteration 20 0 Policy blocks additional geographical layer Alternative GAMS license file for GHG emission estimation gamslice_cplex w Endogenous margins between trade block and country prices Endogenous young animal markets Regional CGEs Global market model Switch the spatial global market model for agricultural products on and off If switched off output prices will be fixed to the baseline results If switched on the supply model will work with prices provided by the global market model and the global market model will be iteratively calibrated to the results of the supply models aggregated to Member State level Endogenous bio fuel markets in global market model Renders supply demand and trade for bio ethanol and bio diesel endogenous Policy blocks Change the policy presentation in the model such e g TRQs for the whole of the EU are present and not at level of EU15 etc Endogenous margins between trade blocks and country prices Renders the difference the average producer prices for a trade block e g EU15 and the countries in that trade block and the margin between the Armington aggregator prices and the consumer price endogenous depending on the countries net trade position Still experimental default is off Endogenous young animal markets Allows fixing young animal markets
34. ng table view several maps with identical coloring and scaling will be drawn as shown in the sample above That is not advisable in our example we need two different scales one appropriate for the absolute values and one appropriate for changes In order to do so choose View Handling New Data View and then Tile vertical CAPRI e capril gams View Handling Windows s Data View 1 Close pata View Windows Exit Tabl ao Cascade and Indicator Index 1 10 Tile horizontal Tile vertical We will then see something similar to the one shown below CAPRI e caprii gams 18 x View Handling Windows enario exploitation Data iew 2 O xj o x Activity Items Table Activity Items Table i re ret M FER ret M Now in the left hand side only the results for the base year should be shown That can be accomplished by deselecting the column for 2013 use the column selection button Wi to do so Activity Items Table Juaa z No 54 Selection dialog for Table columns x Enter search pattern in field and use buttons or use mouse to define selections Clear selection add pattern to labels Add pattern to labels Remove pattern From labels 2013 The very same trick should be applied for the other view only deselecting the results for 2002 Now we see something as below 34 CAPR
35. ogen kg N ha x agri env indicators driving Forces x uaa hal no 5 a Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitrogen kg N ha X Jagri env indicators driving Forces z Percentage diff to Table W Years 2002 EXE ig f RERE 12 11 a 97 83 82 31 73 41 23 55 25 39 94 25 65 37 16 91 120 99 Now for both views the output should be switched to maps and there we are 35 CAPRI e capril gams View Handling Windows Scenario exploitation Data iew 2 o x scenario exploitation Data iew 1 o x Activity Items Table Activity Items Table No 5 a Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitrogen kg N ha v agri Eny indicators driving Forces ed Percentage diff to gt Map W Years 2002 uaa v No 5 a Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitrogen kg N ha v agri Env indicators driving Forces v uaa v meg Map Wi E 2002 2013 Using the GDX viewer an example loading data from the spatial downscaling The option described here is introduced for completeness The names of the file generated by the dis aggregation programs start with XOBS followed with the two character code of the Member state then an underscore followed by the base year and the simulation year and if applicable the code for the simulation which is identical to the name of the GAMS files used from pol input which was used to run the scen
36. onal data base Generation of complete and consistent time series at national level mainly based on Eurostat data CoCO from Complete amp Consistent CoCo runs per Member State simultaneously for all years if data from other Member States are used to derive fallbacks as an EU average only the raw statistical data are used The user can only choose which countries to run and which years to cover Finish national data base Completion of the CoCo data by time series on consumer prices and certain feeding stuffs In both cases it turned out that only the complete and consistent time series for all Member States from 1 provide a good basis for that step The step is hence run simultaneously for all Member States and years based on the results of the CoCo task Here only the years to cover can be chosen by the user FSS selection routine Determines the definition of farm type groups Build regional data base time series Generation of time series at regional level CAPREG The treatment of years in CAPREG is not identical For all years activity levels output coefficients and input coefficients excluding feed inputs are generated However only for the base period a three year weighted average around the chosen base year feed input coefficients are estimated and the supply models are calibrated based on techniques borrowed from Positive Mathematical Programming The user can hence choose for which Member States to run CAPREG for which
37. orts as the reporting part cannot yet used independently If only core results are needed and computing time matters these reports can be switched off Debug options General settings Modules and algorithm Reporting Debug options Methodological switches CGE CAPRI Debug options Market model Solution print at preparatory solve Supply model Abort after preparatory solve Solution printing Suppress Solution print for pre steps in ist iteration with abort Determine point price elasticities Plus iterlim to zero for ist pre steps in istiteration Number of presteps before abort 1 0 Those are options useful when debugging the model which switch either model listings on off or stop execution at certain points Methodological switches CGEs General settings Modules and algorithm Reporting Methodological switches CGE Debug options Methodological switches CGE Endogenous net migration Factor supply Factor mobility Closure rales Cf Fixed budget for factor subsidies Capital stock DPSV rule X Capital mobility Sluggish Closure current account and trade balance Exchange rate v Labor supply Wage curve v Labor mobility Sluggish v Closure household account Spending X Land mobility Sluggish x Closure government account Spending x Please consult the methodological documentation of the regional CGEs for a detailed discussion of these options 23 Intera
38. re are two final control mechanisms Firstly the return code by GAMS which indicates if the GAMS program was correctly compiled and then executed Typical execution time errors are math errors as division by zeros or read write errors on external files Secondly the user can apply different type of exploitation tools to check the logical content of the results 24 Exploiting results For each work step pressing the Exploit results button Will load the exploit result exploitation panel Graph The interface in exploitation mode Result exploitation for Run scenario with market model BL Belgium and Luxembourg IDK Denmark IDE Germany EL Greece IES Spain FR France IR Irland Country selection IT Italy NL The Netherlands AT Austria j T Scenario 1 l0 Regional level Scenario 2 RES 2 0420AGENDA 9 scenario 3 RES 2 0420COMBINED_WTO_BILATERAL enano TEE Base year selection 08 Scenario 4 ee RES_2 0420DDA z Scenario 5 RES_2_0420DE_MTR_RD z2 RES_2 0420DE_PIL_II_MINUS100 mW 124 Simulation year selection l gt i Show meta Show results Return The right hand side comprises a set of drop down boxes from which up to five different scenarios or result files can be selected The first element in each box is empty The left hand side shows depending on the work step selection control for countries the region
39. re defined which take given expert projection into account currently mainly a baseline provided by DG AGRI In the second round the Member State problems are solved again and then problems for all NUTS II regions in each Member State and for all farm types inside of each NUTS II region Baseline calibration market model In that task the results from the trend projection as Member State level serve as the major input to generate the baseline along with input from GLOBAL and CAPREG Baseline calibration supply model In that task the prices from the calibration of the market model are taken as given and the regional or farm type supply models are calibrated That step can be performed independently for the different countries HSMU Baseline Downscales the regional or farm type results from the baseline to clusters of 1x1 km grid cells and calculates indicators at that level These are up scaled again to NUTS 2 Calibrate CGE Calibrates the regional CGEs to the baseline calibration results of the supply models at NUTS2 level Run test shocks with CGE Allows to test the CGEs on selected predefined shocks 18 The task run scenario Graph the task panel for Run Scenario tasks Run scenario with market model Run scenario without market model 6 Run scenario only with market model A Downscale scenario results A Run policy experiment with CGE Define scenario task Bec ee E Settings Utilities GUI Help
40. s and benefits BASE l H2865 0 17 H2866 1 43 H2867 0 98 H2868 1 17 H2869 1 60 H a7N 1 38 The hour glass cursor is shown and the geometry will be loaded which may take a few seconds Afterwards the standard map comes up green yellow red color model quantile classification polygons shrinked no area weights zeros included in classification Now for the HNV indicator ranging from 0 10 where 10 is the best possible index value and real zeros indicate missing values the following settings could be appropriate e Equal interval classification with 10 classes e Zeros treated as missing values e And using area weights may be appropriate so that the frequency graph below the maps shows the share of UAA in each of the ten classes e As linear scale works nicer for our example and as the data only ranges to 9 88 we should round the number to an integer use the tools button and choose 0 in the Fraction digits scroll down box 29 Map option dialogue x Set value for middle color 2 96 v Treat zeros as missing values exlcude from classification and don t draw Use area weights for classification Classification method Equal interval v Number of classes Number of regions with small values to remove from class definition Number of regions with large values to remove from class definition Ooo coro O 1 0
41. t does not execute the program A listing file will be generated Used to test if a program compiles without errors e run GAMS tries to execute the GAMS program A listing file will be generated where possible compilation or run time errors are reported e stop GAMS sends a signal interrupt to the GAMS engine It may take a while until GAMS reacts and stops with an error message after running its finalization routines e show results open the scenario exploiter Note for exploiters the three buttons referring to GAMS will not be visible The same holds for runners and the work steps Build data base and Generate baseline 12 Graph Basic layout of the GUI 13 The different work steps Each work step may comprise different tasks No task will require starting more than one GAMS program but some tasks will start the very same GAMS program with different settings Some tasks will not start GAMS but other tools inside the GUI The different work steps are shown in a panel in the lower left corner of the GUI and are presented by so called radio buttons which means that only one button can be selected at any time Graph the work step panel CAPRI worksteps FORE EERE EERE EEE REESE EE EERE EERE EERE EE EE Perret irt ttt Generate baseline Run scenario Each work step may comprise several tasks which are shown in the second panel below the work step panel The
42. technical background The tracking tool requires as the normal CAPRI GUI the installation of Java run time engine The tracking tool can be found in GAMS XMLITER and consists of three components 1 The java code stored in CAPRI JAR The JAVA call is stored in a batch file called stepReport bat 2 A XML based definition of the tables found in iter tables xml 3 A GDX files produced by the GAMS code of CAPRI at the end of each iteration termed stepOutput gdx Starting the tracking tool and reloading The tracking tool can be started by the batch Stepreport bat e g by a double click in the Windows explorer It will open an application as shown below The basic functionality of the table viewr is equal to the CAPRI GUI and described there There is however one difference with the reload button at the bottom of the application the GDX file can be reloaded from disk Attention under GAMS22 8 the reload may be prevent the GAMS program to write to the GX file Please use reload only during the iteration of the supply model 40 CAPMOD iteration tracking View Handling Windows Capmod iteration tracking window Table Regions Activities ha Cereals Oilseeds Other arable field crops Vegetables and Permanent crops All other crops Fodder Meat Other Animal products Young animals Manure output Fertiliser Feedingstuff Remonte Other inputs Dairy products
43. work step selection panel and then choose the radio button Show HSMU base year data Then in the Member States drop down list Belgium amp Luxembourg must be selected as shown below 27 CAPRI e capril gams Work step selection Input area Build database Base year 2002 x Generate baseline Member States DK Denmark Edit simulation C Run simulation Exploit data base results Exploit base line results Exploit scenario results Exploit gdx files Delete scenario results Data exploitation mode selection Load and show C Show CAPREG time series reading information over existing runs CAPRI is ready loading data Show COCO results C Show CAPREG farm type results Show CAPREG base year data preparing table view Show HSMU base year data Pressing the load and show button will then bring up the first table links to the HSMU results as shown below 2 CAPRI en capril gams View Handling Windows Exploitation of spatial results Data iew 1 Activity Items Table uaa No S aj Mineral Fertilizer Consumption Nitrogen kg Niha Agri Env indicators driving Forces BASE El Now according to the guidelines for RD indicators HNV is to be found under Pressures and benefits which is stored as another table So opening the drop down list for the tables allows us to select the correct table View Handling
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