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1. 40 244 Options e 41 2 45 Window Meni nori 41 2 46 Help MENU ee kirece an r Aa E ea A EE E E AR Ea 42 3 Model description iani a a a 43 3 1 MBB Landseer dia deden eenen oes aan erdee 43 3 1 1 Description MBB Land use sean se onse onne enne enneenseensvensvenseerseersnsennvenn 43 3125 sCellular Automata RE aca EN eaten reta 47 3 1 3 Neighbourhood potential annae eeon 51 Bled Accessibility oi annetd eeen die Restate Hada toe neta Ganden 52 SVS Stability neen 56 ent 57 3 17 Transition potentialen deren ete hdc dese 58 BLS ie e too E aai 60 3 2 Spatial indicators ccccesccesscessceeseeeseesseeeseeeseecscecsaecasenecseeeeseeeeseeeseeeeeeaeesaees 61 3 2 1 Description MBB Spatial indicators annen ers 61 322 Cl ster indicator urn senteerd deed 65 3 2 3 Neighbourhood indicator nnee eeen 66 3 24 Distance indicator E O teen E vats E chess 67 3 2 5 Distance to map indicator enne enneenneerseenseenseersseenseennvernseenseenseenseenn 68 3 2 6 Mask mapping indicator anssen erv ersversverseversvenseersseenseennvennseenseenseenseenn 70 3 2 7 Land use c
2. 5 57 neg In this equation is LA the total negative local accessibility of cell for land use f wij fsc the total weight of the local accessibilities with a negative distance decay parameter S 5 the set of all link types that have a positive distance decay parameter for land use f w relative weight of the proximity to the different networks on the total local accessibility the values of these parameters lie in the range 0 1 LA re the local accessibility of cell to link type s for land use f The implicit accessibility IA is calculated if f c eLU NUrb B otherwise In this equation is Urb the implicit accessibility for land use f of a cell that is occupied by an urban land use Urb the implicit accessibility for land use f of a cell that is occupied by a non urban land use f c the land use occupied by cell c LU the set of urbanised built up land uses The explicit accessibility CEA is calculated 55 if Self EA te a 0 otherwise In this equation is the implicit accessibility of cell for land use f and f c the land use occupied by cell c The total accessibility 4 is defined as EA if f c e LU TA A otherwise Soze In this equation is EA the explicit accessibility of cell for land use f of c the land use occupied by
3. Name Description Dynamic maps Depending on the algorithm Numeric values Depending on the algorithm References Hagen A 2003 Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps International Journal for Geographical Information Science volume 17 issue 3 pp 235 249 Hagen Zanker A Straatman B and Uljee I 2005 Further developments of a fuzzy set map comparison approach International Journal of Geographical Information Science volume 19 issue 7 pp 769 785 Klepper O 1997 Stapeling van milieuthema s in termen van kans op voorkomen Bilthoven RIVM ECO notitie 97 01 Lavalle C L Demicelli M Kasanko N McCormich J Barredo M Turchini M da Graga Saraiva F Nunes da Silva I Loupa Ramos and F Pinto Monteiro 2002 Towards an urban atlas Environmental issue report no 30 European Environmental Agency Copenhagen Denmark Weber J L and Hall M 2001 Towards spatial and territorial indicators using land cover data European Environmental Agency Technical report 59 Copenhagen Denmark 3 2 2 Cluster indicator Purpose and use This type of indicator can be used to pinpoint clusters consisting of a certain land use or a certain group of land uses Process description All cells that are occupied by a land use that has target value 0 will be ignored in the algorithm as will all cells outside the modelling area In the remaining cells we then identify clusters of cells and ca
4. Table 3 57 Input variables used in the Sector to Land use conversion model block Name Description Unit t l The cell demand of sector k in region i at time previous time step Number of cells iN The cell demand of sector k in region i at time t Number of cells Table 3 58 Output variables given by the Sector to Land use conversion model block Name Description Unit t The cell demand of land use function fin region at time t Number of cells The neighbourhood conversion model block Purpose and use This model block determines the neighbourhood effect that is present in a region and in a sector As input the neighbourhood effect of a cell on a land use function is given Process description The neighbourhood effect given per cell is aggregated summed up for a region and then transformed from land use function to sector by means of the function sector correspondence In order to rescale the effect appropriately the aggregated effect is divided by the number of cells that belongs to the corresponding sector in a particular region Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows 81 Fre i gt Ry tR feLUp ki t gt Ere feLUp Here LU is the set of all function land uses C is the set of all cells c in region i Parameters input and output Table 3 59 Input variab
5. Selecting maps In the Maps to log pane a tree of maps is available which is organized by the type of information on the map You can expand or collapse the branches of map tree by moving the 28 mouse over the name of group and double click or moving the mouse over the box in front of the group and left click In this tree you can indicate which maps you want to store You could select unselect all maps a sub model e g all accessibility maps all maps in the land use model or in the entire model by clicking on the corresponding check box gt Click the check box on the left side of the name of the map that you want to log Maps are selected for logging if the check box is checked with a green mark Changing path of log maps MOLAND LIGHT will generate a log file with the extension log containing the logged maps You could specify the path and the name of the log file in the Log folder pane The logged maps will be stored in the folder named with in the path you specified For example if you use Baseline log as the name of the log file all the logged maps will be stored in the folder of Baseline on your computer It is important to specify the path and give a descriptive name for the log file based on the scenario that you are running Otherwise previously logged maps will be overwritten You can modify the path and the name of the log file as follows gt Click the browse button on the right side o
6. The productivity takes into account the assumption of a continuous growth Further the productivity depends on its own past For instance if the productivity was high last year it is likely to be high this year as well Another factor in the determination of the productivity is the growth of activity A last factor is the so called crowding effect This occurs if the number of cells in a region is not sufficient anymore to accommodate the demand for cells Algorithm The function constitutes the initial value as follows which determines the value of the output variable 0 Xi ki 0 Ns Parameters input and output Table 3 67 Parameters used in the productivity model block Name Description Unit Wmin Minimum guaranteed level of cell productivity in each region for Number of people sector or jobs cell t Coefficient that determines the growth of the average cell productivity in a region for sector k Coefficient for the growth in activity the ratio of current activity d and lagged activity in a region i for sector k j Coefficient of the crowding effect in a region for sector Table 3 68 Input variables used in the productivity model block Name Description Unit OW The productivity of sector k in region i at time previous time Number of people step or jobs cell t X The activity in sector k and region i at time t Numb
7. Algorithm let v c denote the value of cell c let A denote the value of cell c in the ancillary map for each cell c 0 if A gt 0 v c no data otherwise end for put all cells with value 0 in list while L remove the first cell c from list L for each cell d that is horizontally or vertically adjacent to cell c if v c cellsize lt v d v d v c cellsize add d to the end of list L end if end for for each cell d that is diagonally adjacent to cell c if v c V2 cellsize lt v d v d v c V2 cellsize add d to the end of list L end if end for end while for each cell c that is occupied by a land use that is not indicated as source set the value of cell c to no data end for Parameters input and output Table 1 2 Distance to map indicator parameters Name Description Range for counting Only count cells with the specific value cells Source Sets for each land use whether the distance to the target areas should be shown or not By default all sources are unchecked Area file Specifies the path and filename of a binary map file specifying the areas to which the distance should be calculated Unless a proper file is specified the indicator cannot be calculated 69 3 2 6 Mask mapping indicator Purpose and use This type of indicator can be used to analyse whether special areas are coinciding with are disturbed by certain land uses and display i
8. Are The map that contains the accessibility value for each cell 3 1 5 Suitability Purpose and use Suitability quantifies the effect that physical elements of the land have on the possible future occurrence of land uses on a certain location 56 Process description Suitability is a complicated measure on the basis of ecological physical technical or economical factors that determine the physical appropriateness of a cell to receive the land use Suitability is expressed as a value between 0 not suitable and 1 perfectly suitable The suitability maps are exogenous to the model and can be created with the help of the OVERLAY TOOL They can also be edited in the full MOLAND system Algorithm Not applicable Parameters input and output Table 3 13 Suitability parameters Name Description Se The suitability maps for each land use except for agriculture function and land use vacant prepared in ArcGIS or OVERLAY TOOL which have integer values from 0 to 10 or 100 Table 3 14 Suitability output Name Description She A value for each vacant or function land use containing the suitability of each cell for that land use which have values from 0 to 1 3 1 6 Zoning Purpose and use Zoning quantifies the effect that planning and legislation has on the possible future occurrence of each land use function on a certain location Process description The zoning maps specify for e
9. e You can create logged maps using log maps function which could be analysed afterwards in the MAP COMPARISON KIT part of the MOLAND LIGHT package or common GIS packages e You can make an animation that shows you the land use indicators or other model results change over time You can open the animation in a viewer but can also incorporate them in presentations e You can create a link to Excel through which all selected model block results are directly written to Excel This can be used for analyses and post processing afterwards Before running the simulation you can decide which results you would like to save to disk For details about running the simulation and saving results please refer to the sections Running a scenario and Saving results Step 3 Visualising results After the simulation is finished MOLAND LIGHT offers several options to analyse results The first option is to visualise the land use map and the indicators that are being calculated by the system The indicators are organised in two groups e Environmental indicators e Social economic indicators On a yearly basis each of these indicators is calculated You gain access to the indicators by clicking the Indicators icon in the main window Steps to take in visualising indicators are described in the section Viewing results Step 4 Analysing results The final step of the impact assessment study is to analyse results within an integrated scenario e g
10. in the potential a The value of this last parameter must be in the range 0 1 For vacant states the transition potential is simplified to 5 Parameters input and output Table 3 17 Transition potentials input Name Description Rye The neighbourhood effect for each land use and each cell See The suitability for each land use and each cell Lai The zoning for each land use and each cell Are The accessibility for each land use and each cell Table 3 18 Transition potentials parameters Name Description a Parameter controlling the extend of the stochastic perturbation performed on the neighbourhood effect A value of 0 means no perturbation Table 3 19 Transition potentials output 59 Name Description Pre The transition potential for each land use and each cell 3 1 8 Land use Purpose and use The land use model block holds the land use map which it updates every time step by means of the allocation algorithm of the CA model Clicking the land use block in the system diagram will open a dialog window from which the land use map can be opened Process description The land use map is updated with the aid of the transition potential maps for each vacant and function land use land use features are not modelled but taken as static entities in accordance with the number of cells that has to be allocated to each land use function in each
11. MOLAND LIGHT DOCUMENTATION Content RIKS BV Layout RIKS BV Illustrations RIKS BV Published by RIKS BV RIKS BV This is a publication of the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems RIKS BV Witmakersstraat 10 P O Box 463 6200 AL Maastricht The Netherlands http www riks nl e mail info riks nl Tel 31 0 433501750 Fax 31 0 433501751 Product information MOLAND LIGHT is a spatial decision support system for urban and regional planning applications MOLAND LIGHT is developed in the GEONAMICA software environment It comes as a stand alone software application with a user friendly interface MOLAND LIGHT is developed in a collaborative effort between JRC and RIKS GEONAMICA is developed by RIKS For more information you are kindly requested to contact RIKS BV MOLAND Light documentation RIKS BV Research Institute for Knowledge Systems BV De kN P O Box 463 te 6200 AL Maastricht The Netherlands R KS www riks nl research institute for knowledge systems Contents 1 2 Users eranen a 3 2 1 Getting started nnen onneennvenneennvenseerseersvenseersneennvennseenseenseenseenseenseenseeneensten 3 2 1 1 Computer requirements nne anne ennn 3 2 1 2 Installing MOLAND Light and accompanying tools unser vennen 4 2 1 3 MOLAND Light direct
12. Range for counting cells for mask mapping indicator Only count cells with the specific value for mask mapping indicator Search radius for habitat fragmentation indicator The search radius around the centre cell The unit of the search radius depends on the cell size Power z Resistance of This comes forth from the empirical relation where N is the number of species c is a constant and is the surface The resistance of a road If a road crosses through a cell the resistance of that cell is road taken as the maximum of the resistance of that land use and this value Fraction Signals per land use whether it belongs to the habitat 1 or not 0 Resistance The resistance of the corresponding land use Land use change The value that will be displayed in the result map if the cell has land use from in the classification base map and to in the current land use map A value of 1 will result in a no data value Metric The measure of spatial patterns to use Input Table 3 26 Input used in the spatial indicators model Name Description Initial land use map The land use map for the start year of the simulation Land use map The current land use map Basis map Depending on the algorithm e g storm intensity map flood intensity map low land map steep slope map etc Output Table 3 27 Output given in the spatial indicators model 64
13. The activity in sector k and region i at time t Number of people or jobs OW The productivity of sector k in region i at time previous time step Number of people or jobs The available space in region at time previous time step Number of cells Table 3 71 Output variables given by the crowding effect model block Name Description Unit The crowding effect in region i at time t 1 The available space model block Purpose and use This model block determines the available space i e the number of cells that is not classified as a feature in a region Process description It is a matter of counting the cells in a region that are either occupied by a land use function or vacant Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows AS ceC f c eLU gy Here LU pp is the set of all vacant and function land uses is the set of all cells in region i Parameters input and output Table 3 72 Input variables used in the available space model block 86 Name Description Unit t f c The current land use map the land use that occupies cell c at time Table 3 73 Output variables given by the accessibility conversion model block Name Description Unit AS The available space in region at time t Number of cells 3 3 7 Cell demands per land use Purpose and use T
14. Two sub directories are created MOLAND Light and Map Comparison Kit Data for MOLAND LIGHT is placed at a server at JRC Part of this data is downloaded when you create a server project and placed in C Documents and Settings User My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Light The directories for each MOLAND LIGHT project contain typically the following sub directories and files e Animations animation maps generated during a simulation e Data base maps required to run a simulation and the intermediate output maps for the current simulation year e Legends map legends e Log logged maps generated during a simulation e geoproj the project file of MOLAND LIGHT created for the specific case 2 1 4 MAP COMPARISON KIT directory structure By default the MAP COMPARISON KIT is installed in the directory C Program Files Geonamica By default the additional data for the MAP COMPARISON KIT are installed in C Documents and Settings User My Documents Geonamica MCK There are four sub directories in this folder e Examples examples developed for the MAP COMPARISON KIT e Palettes palettes legends for the MAP COMPARISON KIT e Results results generated with the MAP COMPARISON KIT e Temp temporary outputs e g reference maps generated with the MAP COMPARISON KIT 2 1 5 Starting MOLAND LIGHT Once installed you can start the MOLAND LIGHT application as follows gt Click the Start button on the Windows taskbar gt Go to All Programs
15. accessible via the menu Ee oee enten 3 ONE Button Function Open a project file from the disk Button Function Save Save a project file to disk 9 Step Advance the simulation with one simulation step Fun Advance the simulation till the next pause is reached B Stop Stop the simulation after the current step is finished Reset Reset the simulation and switch the simulation clock back to the initial year of simulation A list box next to Integrated scenario is also displayed on the toolbar All available integrated scenarios are displayed on the dropdown list where you can select that is load an integrated scenario When collapsed the list box shows the name of the active scenario For the current version of MOLAND LIGHT only a baseline scenario is provided to you However you can create additional scenarios yourself For more information see the section Making changes to the drivers and saving a scenario The Toolbar also displays the simulation clock Each time step the clock is updated to match the current value which means that it increases with steps of 1 year in MOLAND LIGHT Status bar The Status bar is displayed at the bottom of the application window This area provides information to you on your actions while you are working with the application The Status bar describes the following information e When you use the mouse or arrow ke
16. looks as follows 76 td Th ST t i j kj tl 1 p ae ae Xi Tyi 1 Parameters input and output Table 3 41 Parameters used in the migration model block Name Description Unit n The distance decay for sector k k Table 3 42 Input variables used in the migration model block Name Description Unit td The distance between region i and region j at time t km The generalised cost is expressed as the distance between region i and Currency region j at time 1 1 Ko The activity in sector and region at time previous time step Number of people jobs tj The attractivity of region on sector k at time t ki The inertia for sector k Table 3 43 Output variables given by the migration model block Name Description Unit tM The migration The number of people in sector k that move from Number of 0 region i to region j at time t people or jobs 3 3 5 Attractivity for activity in all sectors Description of the attractivity model block Purpose and use This model block determines the attractivity of a region on a sector The dimension of this variable is irrelevant as only relative attractivity matters Process description The attractivity captures different factors One set of factors are the different potentials namely population job and activity The idea is that the more potential a region has the more attractive it is
17. will slow down the overall program You can move the splitter bars to change the size of a pane gt Position the cursor over the splitter bar gt Hold the left mouse button down while dragging the splitter bar and change the size of the panes accordingly 13 Legend pane mmm Splitter bar Layer visibility Land user ee vegetation Residential Ifidustry and commerce Agriculture Mees Road and railways Ta E railw Layer manager pane Ports Airports Mineral extraction and dumps le NUTS region boundaries RUR region boundaries Land use map Parks and recreation areas open soaces with little veoet Zoom tools Scroll bar Overview pane Map pane Tools pane Splitter bar Panes are separated from each other by means of Splitter bars You can move the splitter bars to change the size of a pane Map pane The map pane is located in the middle of the Land use map window and displays a land use map for the modelled region Specifically the land use map for the current simulation year is shown The map pane is equipped with both vertical and horizontal scroll bars If you cannot see all the complete contents of the map pane use the Zoom tools in the tools pane to adjust the image appropriately e g zoom in out pan horizontally vertically Land use information is presented for each grid cell The cell
18. 1 1 42 2 2 24 2 83 and 3 respectively Constraints e Some indicators require an additional map ancillary map to be specified as one of the parameters Equation rules or algorithm As indicators are model blocks the outline of each sub section will follow that of other model blocks The equations used in the spatial indicator models are described in the sub sections of this section which give a description of the different indicator algorithms that are currently available in the system The contents will however be more general since we are describing categories of indicators and not actual indicators which are comprised of the category of indicator and a set of parameter values for that category of indicator Parameters Table 3 25 Parameters used in the spatial indicators model Name Description Search radius The minimum size of a cluster This can range from 0 to 25 The default value is 0 cells for cluster indicator Road is obstacle Determines whether a road can intersect a cluster checked or not unchecked default this is unchecked Target for Specifies whether a land use contributes to the cluster size checked or not cluster indicator unchecked By default this is unchecked 63 Name Description Search radius The radius in cells within which the algorithm looks for a land use that will be cells for added to the numerator denominator or both By defau
19. 3 63 Input variables used in the zoning conversion model block Name Description Unit The fraction of land use function f that contributes to sector k IN The cell demand of land use function fin region at time t Number of fii cells t The zoning effect of land use function fin cell c Zie 8 t f c The current land use map the land use that occupies cell c at time Table 3 64 Output variables given by the zoning conversion model block 83 Name Description Unit 7 The average zoning effect of sector k in region i at time t ki The accessibility conversion model block Purpose and use This model block determines the accessibility of a region for a sector As input the accessibility of a cell for a land use function is given Process description The accessibility given per cell is aggregated summed up for a region and then transformed from land use function to sector by means of the function sector correspondence In order to rescale the accessibility appropriately the aggregated accessibility is divided by the number of cells that belongs to the corresponding sector in a particular region Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows t Fry Aj t feLUp A IN fh fd feLUp LU is the set of all function land uses is the set of all cells in region i Par
20. Forest For the countries that are covered by CLC1990 and CLC2000 the land use demands for 2030 are computed as a linear extrapolation of historic trends For those countries that were not covered by CLC1990 United Kingdom Sweden Finland the average change of Germany was used Germany was selected because it was large enough to provide a reasonable average and comparable as all countries are modern western economies 4 1 7 Population demands Population demands are taken from Eurostat for the years 1990 and 2000 as they were available at the NUTS 3 level and could therefore directly be used for the computation of the population in RUR regions For 2030 only forecasts at NUTS 2 level were available which were used for the population demands For those RUR regions that include only parts of NUTS 2 regions change was computed proportionally to the change in the larger NUTS 2 region it is located in 4 2 Calibration and validation procedure MOLAND LIGHT was calibrated on four case regions and subsequently validated on four other case regions These regions were chosen to represent both urban and rural areas from different countries in Europe as to avoid over calibration towards one particular urbanisation type For calibration the regions Maastricht Duren Aachen NL DE Warsaw PL Patras HE and Valencia ES were selected For validation we selected Munich DE Veszprem HU Parma Modena Reg Emilia IT and Talinn EE Land use ch
21. Geonamica MOLAND Light gt Click the GEONAMICA icon Mal Importing the licence file The first time you start MOLAND LIGHT a message window appears asking you to select the location of the MOLAND LIGHT license file GEONAMICA i Proper licence file could not be found Please select a licence file in the following screen If you choose Cancel in that screen Geonamica will exit La gt Click the OK button on the message window A dialog window opens allowing you to navigate to the folder where you put the license file for MOLAND LIGHT that you received from RIKS gt Select the license file with the extension ic gt Press the Open button of this dialog window The licence files will be created automatically in the same directory as Geonamica exe After this the system will not ask you again to open the licence file when you start MOLAND LIGHT Each time you start MOLAND LIGHT the About window appears gt Click the OK button on the About window Creating a new project As mentioned above data for MOLAND LIGHT is stored on a remote server When starting MOLAND LIGHT you can download some region specific data from this server for visualisation purposes and make a connection with the full MOLAND model on this server gt Go to Start All programs Geonamica MOLAND Light gt Click the MOLAND Light icon gt The About window opens gt Click on the OK button on the About window The O
22. appear at the top of the list the Function states appear in the middle of the list and are underlined and Feature states appear at the bottom of the list These three different land use types are explained later in the section Description MBB Land use Overview pane The overview pane is displayed in the lower left portion of the Land use map window It displays the entire modelled region A wire frame rectangle outlines the portion of the region that is currently displayed in the map pane You can move the wire framed rectangle by placing the mouse pointer inside it and clicking and holding the left mouse button Moving the rectangle moves the map in the map pane accordingly Layer manager pane The layer manager pane is displayed in the upper right portion of the Land use map window It lets you turn map layers on and off in the map pane In the example above three maps are available Land use map and Region boundaries Often other maps will also be available Clicking on the button to the left turns map layer visibility on lo or off xl Button Function Turn on layer visibility El Turn off layer visibility MOLAND LIGHT allows you to view multiple layers simultaneously Note that the boundaries map layer is displayed in all Map windows Tools pane The tools pane is displayed in the lower right portion of the Map window It shows the tools for viewing and editing selected map layers and includes the Zoom to
23. at the local level are driven by four important factors see Figure below e Physical suitability represented by one map per land use vacant and land use function modelled The term suitability is used here to describe the degree to which a cell is fit to support a particular land use function and the associated economic or residential activity for a particular activity Suitability maps are constructed based on physical characteristics of the location Suitability maps remain constant during the simulation for land use vacants and land use functions unless new suitability maps for specific times are imported The static suitability maps are described in the Suitability the section of this chapter e Zoning or institutional suitability represented by one map per land use function modelled Zoning maps are used for enforcing spatial restrictions on the allocation of land uses For each land use there is a time series of zoning maps specifying which cells can and cannot be taken in by the particular land use allowing changing zoning regulations over periods of time The model allows for 3 time periods which can be changed by the user Zoning maps remain constant during the simulation unless the user changes them e Accessibility represented by one map per land use function modelled Accessibility is an expression of the ease with which an activity can fulfil its needs for transportation and other infrastructure in a particular cell based on the i
24. can change the filename and location by pressing the browse button on the right hand side When the Animate maps function is activated in MOLAND LIGHT this is indicated with a mark in front of this option on the Options menu If no map is selected in the Animation settings dialog window no animations will be generated during the simulation When animating maps the maps are transformed into an image the animations are a number of images glued together into one file When the Animate maps function is activated in the MOLAND LIGHT this is indicated with a mark in front of this option on the Options menu If no map is selected in the Animation settings dialog window no animations will be generated during the simulation the mark indicates otherwise Legend files folder Write to Excel Log maps v Animate maps You can view the animations in most recent Internet browsers as well as some graphics packages equipped with an animation facility 2 3 6 Viewing results The most important results calculated by MOLAND LIGHT are provided in maps land use map and indicators 31 Viewing the current land use map The first result of MOLAND LIGHT is the land use map for the current simulation year The land use map is shown when you start up the system and updated during each simulation step You can view the land use map via the Land use map window Land use map EJ Natural vegetation IN Residential industry and
25. commerce Aaricutture Mee EJ Road and railways Hots Airports Mineral extraction and dumps jo NUTS region boundaries jo RUR region boundaries For more information about the general characteristics of a map window in MOLAND LIGHT see the section Map window Visualising indicators The second result of MOLAND LIGHT is the calculated indicators for the current simulation year In MOLAND LIGHT the basic output produced is maps However these maps are not always easy to interpret at first instance For that reason MOLAND LIGHT computes a range of indicators as well An indicator in this context is a measure to make a particular phenomenon perceptible that is not at least not immediately detectable You can access the indicators via the Indicators tab in the Main window Ei Main window saa AT Expansion of urban areas Some of these indicators describe a state a condition and others show a change over time The first set of indicators for the start year is already available when starting up the simulation for the second set the simulation requires a step first otherwise no change can be calculated While the Forested areas shows both the condition and the change Indicators that describe a state or a condition are 32 e Soil sealing e Forested areas category Forest e Urban clusters e Distance from residential to work e Distance from residential t
26. detail These advances have been accompanied by an increase in the complexity of the models and in the effort to build more realistic models Couclelis 1997 A concise overview of the application of CA models in land use modelling and spatial planning can be found in Engelen et al 1999 Over the past years we have developed a generic constrained cellular automata model and applied it to urban White and Engelen 1993 1994 1997 White et al 1997 and regional Engelen et al 1993 1995 1996 1997 2000 2002a cases This model is build up as follows Notation In this chapter we will consistently use the following notation LU The set of all land uses An element of this set a land use will be referred to by the letter f t Time index of a variable All dynamic variables have time index that is written in superscript to the left of the variable for example Z cell on the grid map Sets or variables that are defined for each cell on the map are preceded by a set of brackets within which the specific cell is indicated for example f c is the land use function occupying cell c Other notations will be introduced when appropriate The cell space The cell space consists of a 2 dimensional rectangular grid of square cells each representing an area ranging from 50 m x 50 m to 1000 m x 1000 m The grid size and shape varies according to the requirements of the application but is typically less than 100
27. distance decay parameter for a particular land use and link type the land use prefers to be located close to that link type When there is a negative value the land use prefers to be located away from that link type To combine all the local accessibilities per link type we need to make a distinction between these positive and negative effects since they comprise a different concept and should be combined differently For negative effects the local accessibility per link type can be interpreted as the extent to which the land use remains unhindered by the presence of the transport network If a land use is not hindered by the presence of one link type it can still be hindered by the presence of another link type Hence the total negative local accessibility is determined by the product of the local accessibilities per link type with negative distance decay where the link types are given a weight expressing their relative importance The total negative local accessibility can then be treated the same as a positive effect For positive effects the local accessibility per link type can be interpreted as the extent to which the need of a land use for the presence of the transport network can be fulfilled by that link type If this need cannot be totally fulfilled by one link type then the remaining part can be fulfilled by another link type and so on Hence the total local accessibility can be interpreted as the extent to which the need for presen
28. done C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Lig Download done C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Lig Download done C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Lig Download done C Documents and Settings yshi My Download done C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Ligl Download done C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Ligl Done Opening an existing project file If you have already created your project file for the RUR region of interest on your computer you can open it as following steps For more information about how to create a new project see the section Creating a new project gt VV v Vv Go to Start All programs Geonamica MOLAND Light Click the MOLAND Light icon The About window opens Click on the OK button on the About window The Open project file dialog window opens Navigate to the project file that you want to open and double click on it Open project file ese data BE My Recent Documents a project files C geoproi open as read only The MOLAND LIGHT will be started and you will see the GEONAMICA application window on your screen where is the project file name that you selected 2 1 6 Screen layout When you start MOLAND LIGHT the application window opens immediately This is the wind
29. for each cell c that is occupied by a land use that is not indicated as source set the value of cell c to no data end for Parameters input and output Table 1 1 Distance indicator parameters Name Description Road is obstacle Determines whether a road can intersect a target cluster checked or not unchecked By default this is checked Target cluster radius This is the minimum size that a cluster of target cells should have to be considered a target This value can range from 1 to 25 and is set to 10 by default Role of land use Per land use you can specify whether it is a source a target or neither n a 3 2 5 Distance to map indicator Purpose and use This type of indicator approximates the distance from a cell with a certain land use to the nearest target cell specified on an ancillary binary map As in the distance indicator one can specify the measure of distance However the distance is measured to the closest target cell not the closest target cluster 68 Process description The distance between each pair of cells is approximated by taking paths from one cell to another that is horizontally vertically or diagonally adjacent This approximation overestimates the actual distance by less than 10 We calculate for each source cell the smallest distance to a cell that has a positive value in the ancillary map A cell is a source cell if it is occupied by a land use marked as source
30. for sector Table 3 48 Input variables used in the population potential model block Name Description Unit td The distance between region i and region j at time t km i j The generalised cost is expressed as the distance between region i and Currency region j at time t 1 1 The activity in sector k and region at time previous time step of i people Table 3 49 Output variables given by the population potential model block Name Description Unit VP _ The population potential in sector k and region i at time t ol The job potential model block Purpose and use This model block determines the job potential per region per sector Process description The job potential per region and sector is a function of the sums of job activities i e the number of jobs in all regions and the distances between the regions Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows Whee gt 5 d da J J while keK Here K is the set of all economic sectors Parameters input and output Table 3 50 Parameters used in the job potential model block Name Description Unit n The distance decay for sector k k Table 3 51 Input variables used in the job potential model block 79 Name Description Unit d The distance between region i and region j at time t km The ge
31. influence of accessibility is computed as a function of the distance to the nearest transport network and the relative importance of this network These parameters are set for each function land use separately However in practice accessibility mostly influences urban land use Therefore the accessibility parameters are only set for the two urban land uses Values are indicated in the table below Land use Infrastructure type Distance decay cells Weight Residential Motorways 10 0 8 Residential Main roads 6 0 6 Residential Regional roads 2 0 4 Residential Railways 1 0 Residential Railway stations 10 1 Industry and commerce Motorways 10 1 Industry and commerce Main roads 10 0 7 Industry and commerce Regional roads 6 0 4 Industry and commerce Railways 1 0 Industry and commerce Railway stations 10 0 5 4 4 5 Suitability and zoning Parameter settings for suitability and zoning are described in sections 4 1 3 and 4 1 4 4 5 References Jarvis A H I Reuter A Nelson E Guevara 2008 Hole filled seamless SRTM data V4 International Centre for Tropical Agriculture CIAT available from http srtm csi cgiar org SRTM data http srtm jrc ec europa eu Loibl W K stl M and Steinnocher K 2008 Land use relationships in rural urban regions Module 2 List of generic rural urban region types quantitative classification PLUREL deliverables D2 1 2 D2 1 3 http www plurel net re
32. states on the map represent the predominant land use on that location When you click a location on the map the cell location row column and the predominant land use on this location will be displayed in the right side of the status bar To the left of the map pane is a legend pane that displays the land use legend When a simulation is running the Land use map window will be updated after each time step Right clicking on the map pane the context menu appears with two options Cell information and Copy as bitmap gt Click on Cell information The name of the land use on the pointed location appears gt Click on Copy as bitmap The screenshot of the map displayed in the map pane will be temporarily stored on the clipboard 14 open somces with eoet You could inspect the information on a specific location by activating the Inspect button and right clicking in a map The information of the boundary map and the selected map for that location will be displayed in a yellow box For more information about the Inspect tool see the section Grid tools Legend pane The legend pane is displayed in the upper left portion of the Map window It shows the legend of the map selected in the Layer Manager explained below For example if you select a land use map the legend pane shows the legend of land uses The land use is subdivided into 3 types Vacant Function Feature In the legend of the map the Vacant states
33. the table below MOLAND LIGHT land use CLC Land uses label 3 MOLAND LIGHT type Natural vegetation Natural grasslands Moors and heathland Vacant Sclerophyllous vegetation Transitional woodland shrub Burnt areas Residential Continuous urban fabric Discontinuous urban Function fabric Construction sites Industry and commerce Industry or commercial units Construction Function sites MOLAND LIGHT land use CLC Land uses label 3 MOLAND LIGHT type Agriculture Non irrigated arable land Permanently irrigated Function land Rice fields Vineyards Fruit trees and berry plantations Olive groves Pastures Annual crops associated with permanent crops Complex cultivation patterns Land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation Agro forestry areas Forest Broad leaved forest Coniferous forest Mixed Function forest Road and railways Road and rail networks and associated land Feature Ports Port areas Feature Airports Airports Feature Mineral extraction and dump Mineral extraction sites Dump sites Feature sites Parks and recreation areas Green urban areas Sport and leisure facilities Feature Open spaces with little orno Beaches dunes and sands Bare rocks Sparsely Feature vegetation vegetated areas Glaciers and perpetual snow Wetlands Inland marshes Peat bogs Salt marshes Salines Feature Intertidal flats Inland wa
34. understand the evolution of urban areas and impacts on the surrounding environment At the basis of its approach lies the idea that without a spatial approach any urban indicator set aiming to address sustainability would be incomplete The spatial indicators model calculates the spatial indicators dynamically with the changing land use on a yearly basis and are available in the form of dynamic maps and numeric outputs User information Table 3 23 User information in the spatial indicators model Drivers and Impacts Links to from other MBB External influences MBB Land Use land use map Policy options Other user options Parameter sets for each spatial indicator Policy indicators Environmental indicators Social economic indicators 61 Drivers and Impacts Links to from other MBB Impacts General information Table 3 24 General information in the spatial indicators model Type of information Description Type of model Various indicator models Application All cells within the modelling area Spatial resolution Depending on the application case Temporal resolution Year Process description An indicator in this context is a measure to make a particular phenomenon perceptible that is not or at the least not immediately detectable On the other hand indicators can also be set up to verify legislative guidelines or policy goals Indicators are in fact s
35. use the Pauses command on the Simulation menu When Pauses is selected the Pause Settings dialog window opens You can use the Run command on the Simulation menu or press the Run button on the toolbar to advance the simulation again until the next pause is reached 22 Pause settings Pauses 2050 Jan 01 Display format O Year Date O Date and time Time seconds La O Time milliseconds Display format In the Display format pane of the Pause settings window you can define the display format of pause tabs by clicking the radio button in front of the format that you want to display When you switch the format the list of pauses is displayed accordingly Be aware that the Display format that you defined in the Pause settings dialog window will be used for the integrated time in the system such as the time format in the Log maps on the Options menu and Simulation clock on the toolbar Add You can add a new pause by clicking the Add button on the top right of the Pause Settings dialog window Enter the year in which you want to halt the simulation in the text box next to Time and then press OK The pause at this year will be added to the Pauses list Simulation start time 2000 Jan 01 Simulation end time 2050 Jan 01 Current simulation time 2001 Jan 01 Time 2005 Generate You can predefine pause instances by using the Generate command The Generate pauses dialog window open
36. while assign the value size to each cell in the list M end for Parameters input and output Table 3 28 Cluster indicator parameters Name Description Search radius cells The minimum size of a cluster This can range from 0 to 25 The default value is 0 Road is obstacle Determines whether a road can intersect a cluster checked or not unchecked By default this is unchecked Target Specifies whether a land use contributes to the cluster size checked or not unchecked By default this is unchecked 3 2 3 Neighbourhood indicator Purpose and use This type of indicator can be used to calculate figures consisting of the ratio of sums of weights associated with land uses in the vicinity of each cell This type of indicator can present an image of the supply of or demand for certain land uses by other land uses within a specified radius Process description Each land use is assigned two weights one for the numerator and one for the denominator of the values that will be calculated For each cell we then accumulate the weight of the 66 occurring land use in each cell within the neighbourhood of the current cell the size of which is defined by the search radius parameter for both numerator and denominator The numerator and denominator are divided to obtain a single value per cell If the denominator in a cell equals 0 the value in that cell will be set to no data Algorithm for
37. window The selected maps in the tree of maps will be stored in the path you specified The function of Log maps in the Options menu is preceded with a mark Legend files folder Write to Excel v Log maps Animate maps If there is no map selected you are not able to turn the logging function on A message window depicted as figure below appears GEONAMICA A No items have been selected to be logged Logging will be turned off Saving settings You can finish any adjustments made in the log settings by clicking the Save settings button Only the maps for the moments which are later than the current simulated time will be logged The function of Log maps on the Options menu is still indicated with a tick mark when it is activated When the function of log maps is enabled the selected maps for the selected log moments will be logged while the simulation is running Turning logging off You can stop the logging by clicking the Turn logging off button on the lower right pane of the Log settings dialog window The function of Log maps on the Options menu is now displayed without a tick mark Legend files folder Write to Excel Animate maps Animate maps It is also possible to make movies of maps during a simulation and store them for later use To that effect you can use the Animate maps command from the Options menu When this command is selected the Animation settings dialog window opens Anim
38. you confirm that you want to save changes gt Click the Yes button of the Save dialog window to carry out the action of saving and closing 10 More information on saving changes is given in the section Making changes to the drivers and saving a scenario of this manual 2 1 9 If you experience problems If you experience problems installing or running MOLAND LIGHT please contact us with the version number of the MOLAND LIGHT that you are using see the section System information Research Institute for Knowledge Systems bv To the attention of Hedwig van Delden P O Box 463 6200 AL Maastricht The Netherlands Tel 31 43 3501750 Fax 31 43 3501751 E mail info riks nl Website www riks nl 11 2 2 Opening a project file This section describes the primary steps of opening a project file with MOLAND LIGHT and the structures of main window and map window 2 2 1 Project file and integrated scenario It is important to understand how the input data files and parameters that are required to run models in the system are organized in MOLAND LIGHT We use the terms project file and integrated scenario to describe the different levels of data and file management and parameter value settings In the context of this document an integrated scenario is considered to be a set of values for each driver in MOLAND LIGHT for more information on drivers in MOLAND LIGHT see the section Setting the drivers A project fil
39. 0 by 1000 cells The grid may be larger but at the cost of longer run times The same applies to the resolution of the model it is technically possible to increase the resolution of the CA model but this requires working on larger neighbourhoods in terms of cellular units as well which increases the execution time considerably Moreover before increasing the resolution of the CA model it is essential to analyse whether this would lead to any better results It would be wrong to decrease the size of the cells beyond the typical physical entities the blocks or plots that are the subject of the location decisions of the spatial agents determining the use of the land Very often also the basic map material will not be available or it will become unreliable at high resolutions and the processes modelled are laden with uncertainty Thus a higher spatial resolution might give a false impression of detail and information but could result is less realistic spatial dynamics The neighbourhood The cell neighbourhood is defined as the circular region around the cell out to a radius of eight cells The neighbourhood thus contains 196 cells see figure 3 1 arranged in 30 discrete distance zones forming concentric circles We indicate the collection of cells that form the neighbourhood of a cell c by D c The distance between cells a and b d a b is given by VX Y where X and Y represent the horizontal and vertical distance between the
40. D The equations used in the regional interaction model are described in the sub sections of this the section Each of the elements in black Activity National growth Migration Attractivity for activity in all sectors Productivity and Cell demands per land use is described in a separate the section Parameters Table 3 32 Parameters used in the Regional interaction model Name Description Unit The inertia for sector k k B Influence of the population potential on the attractivity of aregion i for activity k B Influence of the job potential on the attractivity of a region for 4 activity 73 Name Description Unit B Influence of activity in economic sector k on the attractivity of a at region for activity k B Influence of the land productivity on the attractivity of a region for 4 activity Influence of activity on fraction of national growth for sector k B Influence of neighbourhood effect on the attractivity of a region k for activity B Influence of suitability on the attractivity of a region for activity k 7 k B Influence of zoning on the attractivity of a region for activity 8 k B Influence of the immigration emigration ratio on the fraction of 9 k national growth for sector k B Influence of accessibility on the attractivity
41. In addition the productivity plays a role Lastly the local characteristics namely neighbourhood effect suitability zoning and accessibility influence the attractivity of a region Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows t _t Aix t Pox t Bar t l Pak t l Psk 1 1 Bik t l 1 1 Box Tyi VI Wi 77 i Shi Zi A Parameters input and output Table 3 44 Parameters used in the attractivity model block Name Description Unit B Influence of the population potential on the attractivity of a region Le for activity k B Influence of the job potential on the attractivity of a region for ak activity 77 Name Description Unit Influence of activity in economic sector k on the attractivity of a region for activity k Bay Influence of the land productivity on the attractivity of a region for activity k Bs Influence of neighbourhood effect on the attractivity of a region for activity k Pr Influence of suitability on the attractivity of a region for activity k Psa Influence of zoning on the attractivity of a region for activity Box Influence of accessibility on the attractivity of a region for activity k Table 3 45 Input variables used in the attractivity model block koi Name Description Unit yp Popula
42. MBB Spatial indicators 2 3 7 Analysing results The final step of the impact assessment study is to analyse results within an integrated scenario e g the temporal evolution of an integrated scenario or to compare a set of 33 integrated scenarios For further processing of the numerical results you can use a spreadsheet programme such as Excel In order to analyse spatial results maps more carefully it is often helpful to analyse them pixel by pixel or to compare only the land use type you are interested in For this MOLAND LIGHT links to the MAP COMPARISON KIT abbreviated to MCK The MCK comes with its own dedicated manual It explains the use of the MCK and describes in detail how you can analyse and compare logged maps generated by MOLAND LIGHT in an interactive manner This section will provide a brief overview of the MCK and the way results maps from MOLAND LIGHT can be compared with this tool Short overview of the MCK An overview of the MCK looks as depicted below Menu bar Toolbar m Work pane Map Comparison Kit 3 2 MCK log 7 use map_2030rst z 2 3 29 Result statistics Per category Other agriculture DER Other agriculture gt Method Per category Other taks 7 Result statistics 3 Map 2 C Documents and Settings yshi My Docu Land use map_2030 rst Arable land Pe i Statistics EJ Greenhouses bse r K In none of the m
43. ND LIGHT runs on personal computers with Microsoft Windows XP or Windows Vista and equipped with modern Intel or Intel compatible processors To use MOLAND LIGHT your computer should have the following hardware components e Atleast 512 MB of RAM e A hard disk with at least 1GB free space To make full use of the application you should have the following software packages installed on your computer e Microsoft Excel 2000 or later optional e Microsoft Picture and fax viewer or Internet explorer optional MOLAND LIGHT is developed for Windows XP and Windows Vista If you experience problems when installing MOLAND LIGHT on Windows 7 please contact us see the section 2 1 9 2 1 2 Installing MOLAND LIGHT and accompanying tools The following is a step by step description of the installation of MOLAND LIGHT The installation uninstallation of MOLAND LIGHT follows standard Windows procedures If you have a previous version of the MOLAND LIGHT software installed on your machine you will be asked whether you want to uninstall it first We recommend uninstalling it If you would want to keep it make sure to locate the latest version of MOLAND LIGHT in a separate directory During the installation you may encounter a message asking whether you want to keep or replace certain files We recommend replacing those files for use with MOLAND LIGHT Keeping the old files may cause the software to malfunction To install MOLAND LIGHT g
44. Unit The activity potential in sector k and region i at time t ki The sector to land use conversion model block Purpose and use This model block calculates the cell demand of a land use function in a region given the cell demand of a sector in a region 80 Process description Based on a fixed predetermined function sector correspondence the inverse correspondence from sector to function has to be determined at each time step It is not fixed This is due to the constraint that both cell demands have to be integer numbers Thus at each time step little variations occur due to rounding The inverse correspondence indicates the fraction for which a sector accounted in a land use function in the previous time step Then in accordance to this fraction the newly determined cell demand of a sector in a region is translated into the cell demand of a land use function The sum over all sectors that correspond to this land use function then gives the total cell demand of the latter Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows t t t l poinv F i f k keK with t 1 t l pin _ Ere if sk 1 1 Ni Here K is the set of all sectors Parameters input and output Table 3 56 Parameters used in the Sector to Land use conversion model block Name Description Unit The fraction of land use function f that contributes to sector k
45. above another in a non overlapped fashion Tile vertical Arrange multiple opened windows side by side in a non overlapped fashion Arrange icons Arrange the icons for minimized windows at the bottom of the screen List of Windows Active the selected window on the list of opened windows 41 2 4 6 menu You can use the Help menu to select the type of help that you want MOLAND LIGHT to display on the screen The different commands in this menu permit you to look up information about MOLAND LIGHT its commands options and tools Index F1 Licence About Option Function Link Index Get the opening screen of the on line help file of Section Index MOLAND LIGHT Licence Open the Licence window Section Licence About Open the About window Section About 42 3 Model description This chapter describes each model building blocks MBB included in the system and builds on the documentation of the MOLAND land use model and Metronamica modelling framework because MOLAND LIGHT uses exactly the same underlying models as these two products The variables used in each MBB are listed by the categories parameters input output internal variables Parameters refer to variables that are editable and can be configured by the user Input refers to variables calculated by other MBB in the system Output are those variables calculated by the respective MBB They can be used as input for other MBB in the s
46. ach cell and for each land use the moment from which the specific land use is allowed in that cell One of four moments can be chosen the start year of the simulation the first planning period and the second planning period and never The start of the first and second planning period can be specified per zoning map hence per land use If a land use is allowed in a cell the zoning for that land use and cell is 1 If it is not allowed and also not allowed from the next planning period onwards the zoning will equal 0 If it is not allowed right now but it is allowed from the next planning period onwards then the value of the zoning will be equal to the fraction of the time from the current planning period to the next that has passed raised to the power of the inverse of the zoning anticipation parameter Hence with the zoning anticipation parameter equal to 1 the zoning will linearly increase from 0 at the start of the last planning period where the land use is not allowed to at the start of the first planning period from which onwards the land use is allowed A higher value for the zoning anticipation parameter will yield a steeper rise of the zoning at the beginning of this phase 57 0 1 Figure 3 5 Increase of zoning from the start of the last disallowed planning period 0 to the start of the first allowed planning period 1 with a value of 0 5 for the zoning anticipation parameter Algorithm The zoning for land use f
47. ame gt Select the cell next to this model block to enter a name by clicking on it If you want to use the model block as the Excel sheet name you can use Ctrl c and Ctrl v on your keyboard to do so gt Click on the model block name for which you want to make link to Excel sheet gt Press Ctrl c on your keyboard gt Click the corresponding cell in the column of Excel sheet name gt Press Ctrl v on your keyboard The names that you add in the Write to Excel settings window will be displayed as the names of the sheets in Excel Write to Excel settings Writing moments 2000 Jan 01 00 00 00 Open Excel workbook Start writing Defining writing moments While a simulation is advancing the system only writes model output for the moments that are determined in the Writing moments pane on the lower left part of the Write to Excel settings window You can adjust the list of writing moments by using the Add button the Generate button the Delete button and the Reset button You can add a single moment as follows gt Click the Add button The Add write moment dialog window opens gt Enter the moment in the text box next to Time for which you want to display the model output in the Excel workbook gt Press The write moment at this year will be displayed on the Writing moments list immediately Add write moment You can define write moments at regular inte
48. ameters input and output Table 3 65 Input variables used in the accessibility conversion model block Name Description Unit The fraction of land use function f that contributes to sector IN The cell demand of land use function fin region i at time t Number of cells Si t The accessibility effect of land use function fin cell c at time t t f c The current land use map the land use that occupies cell c at time Table 3 66 Output variables given by the accessibility conversion model block Name Description Unit tA The average accessibility effect of sector k in region i at time t ki 3 3 6 Productivity The levels of activity form a restriction on the cell allocation in the CA model To be more precise the demand for activity can be converted to a number of cells that needs to be allocated to a sector by modelling the average activity per cell in a region this is known as the productivity The number of cells allocated to each sector can in turn be converted to a number of cells that needs to be allocated to each land use class note that sectors and land use classes are not necessarily equivalent This is related to the allocation algorithm of the MBB Land Use 84 Overview productivity model block Purpose and use This model block determines the productivity of a sector in a region i e the number of jobs or people per cell Process description
49. ance d in the CA neighbourhood the neighbourhood of cell c D c and the Euclidian distance between cell a and cell b d a b c eD c Parameters input and output Table 3 7 Neighbourhood input Name Description ffe The map that contains the land use that occupies each cell at time Table 3 8 Neighbourhood parameters Name Description We d The spline that determines the influence of a land use on another land use for each fof distance in the neighbourhood Table 3 9 Neighbourhood output Name Description Rye A map for each land use function containing the neighbourhood effect for that land use for each cell 3 1 4 Accessibility Purpose and use Accessibility measures the effect of the nearness and importance of different types of transport networks such as local roads highways or railroads on the possible future occurrence of each land use function on a certain location The accessibility is used to calculate the Transition potential values Process description The accessibility for each land use function is a composite measure of four types of accessibility zonal accessibility local accessibility implicit accessibility and explicit accessibility Zonal accessibility The zonal accessibility is a measure based upon the generalised cost from a transport zone to origins and destinations It is calculated in the transport model The transport zones are specified
50. ange models can be assessed based on several aspects such as patterns or local accuracy However as patterns are really large scale phenomena the calibration and validation results were only tested with respect to their local accuracy presence For this we used the Kappa Simulation statistic Van Vliet et al in press which yields values between 1 and 1 Values above 0 indicate that the model does explain land use changes while values below 0 indicate it does not Besides optimization to Kappa Simulation the calibration results were checked manually on realism This means that all parameters included should be explicable in terms of their real world meaning and that the calibration applications should be carefully examined for artefacts Artefacts in this case are simulated land use changes that are the result of incorrectly set parameters and therefore generate unrealistic results It should be noted that the explicit aim of the calibration procedure is to obtain a set of parameters that yields reasonable results in all regions as opposed to good results in one or a selected number of case study regions Therefore the tool can be used as a first investigation while it is not intended for elaborate research on one area 4 3 Calibration and validation results The table below presents the Kappa Simulation scores for the applications that were used in the calibration and those were used for the independent validation All applications were s
51. aps 38925 Onlyinmapi _ 1275 _In both maps 4053 2 532 EJ Housing low density Algorithm settings Per category Housing high density Other agriculture a OK Pastures zel een Cancel ew _Housing low density_ Housing high densit Apply Services Socio cultural uses_ Extensive grassland t Comparison settings Recreation areas_ EN 2 Land_use Land use map_2030 rst fed Result map Per category Other agriculture 0 Other agriculture en in none of the maps E Pastures in beth maps E Arable land A only in map 1 nat in map 2 EJ Greenhouses ae only in map 2 not in map 1 Housing low density The MAP COMPARISON KIT application window consists of the Menu bar the Toolbar and the Work pane You can simultaneously open different windows for maps and statistics Furthermore it is possible to keep the Comparison Settings dialog window opened while working with the tool e The st Map window contains the first map to compare analyse To change the contents of toolbar the st Map window choose another map from the dropdown list next to the 1 button on the If the Zst Map window is not open yet then you can do so by clicking the 1 button e The 2nd Map window contains the second map to compare analyse To change the contents of the 2nd Map window choose another map from the combo box next to the 2 button on th
52. ario 1 in the text box next to Name and enter a short description in the text box next to Description Click the Save button at the bottom of the Save simulation window to save the integrated scenario You will see the name of your integrated scenario appear in the toolbar Save a project file as Close project Close the project 39 Option Function Link Recent file list Display the names and the paths of the 4 most recently opened project files If you select one of the 4 files it will be opened Exit Quit MOLAND LIGHT 2 4 2 Simulation menu You can use the Simulation menu to control a simulation The commands Update Run Stop and Reset can also be invoked when pressing the respective buttons on the Toolbar Update Step Run Reset Pauses End year Option Function Update Recalculate variables that are affected by changes except for the initial values and initial maps via the user interface for the current simulation year This command will not change the simulation time Step Advance the simulation with one time step Run Advance the simulation till the next pause moment has been reached Stop Stop a simulation run Reset Recalculate variables that are affected by changes including the initial values and initial maps via the user interface for the start year of the simulati
53. ations are stored in the form of gif files 30 Animation settings Maps to animate Entire model E AMOLAND Light DIndicators 2 050 sealing 050 sealing map QUrban expansion Urban expansion map Forested areas Forested areas map Abandoned land Abandoned land map Urban dusters Urban dusters map DDistance from residential to work Distance from residential to work map Distance from residential to recreation MDistance from residential to recreation map Animation folder C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Light arr 2 Cancel Selecting maps In the Maps to animate pane a tree of maps is available which is organized by the type of information on the map You can expand or collapse the branches of map tree by moving the mouse over the name of group and double click or moving the mouse over the box in front of the group and left click In this tree you can indicate which maps you want to store You can select unselect the land maps and all indicator maps by clicking on the corresponding check box gt Click the check box on the left side of the name of the map that you want to animate Maps are selected for animation when the check box is checked with a green mark Changing the path of animated maps The program automatically sets the location where the animations are stored as well as the file name in the Animation directory text box You
54. ble 2 4 1 File menu You can use the File menu to open and save project files and to exit MOLAND LIGHT The MOLAND LIGHTsystem saves project files with a geoproj extension attached to the file name Create server project Open project Ctrl 0 Save project Save project as Close project 1 arr__arlon geoproj 2 E RIKS Arr Arlon geoproj 3 Arr Arlon alternative geoproj 4 Arr Arlon_test geoproj Exit Option Function Link Create server Create a new server project file with Section Creating a new project MOLAND LIGHT project Open project Open a project file stored on a disk Section Opening an existing project file Save project Save changes to the current project file Section Save a project file 38 Option Function Link Save project as Save a project to a disk Section Click the Save project command on the File menu The Save project dialog window opens Enter a new integrated scenario name e g Scenario 1 in the text box next to Integrated scenario name Enter a description in the text box next to Integrated scenario description to reflect the changes you _ have _ made compared tothe original baseline scenario Select Save as new scenario from the dropdown list next to Land use demand scenario Click the Details button to open the Scenario details dialog window Enter a descriptive name e g Land use Scen
55. ble 3 4 Parameters used in the Land use model Name Description Unit LU ini The initial land use map containing the land use that occupies each cell IN The network layers that consist of nodes and links of different Line segment types representing the transport network The zoning maps for each land use function prepared in ArcGIS OVERLAY TOOL S fe The suitability maps for each land use function and land use vacant prepared in ArcGIS or OVERLAY TOOL which have integer values from 0 to 10 MaxS Maximum suitability for all land uses which is used to rescale the integer values of input suitability maps to the range from 0 1 i The start of the first and second planning period for each zoning map Parameter controlling the steepness of the increase in the zoning for land use f from the last disallowed planning period to the first allowed planning period d The spline that determines the influence of a land use fon another land use f for each distance in the neighbourhood a Stochastic noise parameter True false parameter per land use specifying if the land use is contained in the set of urbanised land uses LUU or not Urb The implicit accessibility for a land use on a built up area NUrby The implicit accessibility for a land use on a non built up area 46 Name Description Unit True false parameter per land use speci
56. ce of the transport network of a land use 53 can be fulfilled by any of the link types where the link types are given a weight expressing their relative importance Note that the order in which we examine the link types in this approach is irrelevant This becomes clear if we turn things around The extent to which the need for presence of the transport network can be fulfilled by any of the link types is the same as the complement of the extent to which this need cannot be fulfilled by any of the link types Again cannot be fulfilled is the complement of can be fulfilled Hence we are looking for the complement of the intersection of the complements of the extent to which this need can be fulfilled by each link type In set theory thisorem is known as DeMorgan s law Casella amp Berger 1990 Implicit accessibility The implicit accessibility reflects the fact that when an area is occupied by an urban land use measures will be taken to assure its accessibility This is the case even if it does not appear so on the network map For the land use model this is especially significant because as the cellular automata model changes the land use map it does not change the network map accordingly The implied accessibility takes one of two possible values for each land use class one for urbanised areas and one for non urbanised areas A cell is urbanised if its current land use class is flagged as a built up area These
57. cell c LU the set of impassable land uses ZA s the zonal accessibility for land use function f in transport zone z z the transport zone in which cell c is located LA the local accessibility of cell for land use fand ye the implicit accessibility of cell for land use Parameters input and output Table 3 10 Accessibility input Name Description The network layers that consist of nodes and links of different types representing the transport network ZA pre The zonal accessibility at time for land use function f in transport zone z z the transport zone in which cell c is located Table 3 11 Accessibility parameters Name Description True false parameter per land use specifying if the land use is contained in the set of urbanised land uses LUU or not The implicit accessibility for land use a built up area NUrb The implicit accessibility for a land use on non built up area True false parameter per land use specifying if the land use is impassable for other land uses or not The relative weight of the local accessibility for certain link type and land use in the total local accessibility for that land use The rate at which the local accessibility for a certain link type and land use decreases for positive values or increases for negative values over distance Table 3 12 Accessibility output Name Description
58. cells respectively The distances between the cells in each concentric circle and the centre cell in figure 3 1 are listed in table 3 6 Table 3 6 Distances and distance numbers in the cell neighbourhood 48 Concentric circle 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Distance in cells 0 1 1 41 2 224 283 3 3 16 3 61 4 Concentric circle 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Distance in cells 4 12 4 24 4 47 5 10 5 39 5 66 5 83 6 6 08 Concentric circle 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Distance in cells 6 32 6 40 6 71 7 7 07 7 21 7 28 7 62 7 81 8 8 0 7 28 27 25 25 27 B 6 29 26 23 21 20 19 2021 25 4 X 5 29 25 22 18 16 15 14 15 16 18 2 25 29 4 25 2217 14 B ll 0 11 13 4 17 2 26 3 B 5 181412 9 8 7 8 9 12 4 18 23 28 2 2721161539 6 5 4 5 6 9 B 16 21 27 1 25 20 1511 8 5 3 2 3 5 8 11 15 20 25 0 0 3 19 1410 7 4 2 1 2 4 7 10 14 19 24 30 1 25 20 1511 8 5 3 2 3 5 8 11152025 2 237 21 16 13 9 6 5 4 5 6 9 15 6 2127 3 2 25 181412 9 3 7 9 12 14 18 23 28 4 25 2217 14 G ll 10 11 13 14 17 22 26 5 29 25 22 18 16 15 14 15 16 18 22 25 29 29 26 23 21 20 19 20 21 B 5 J 7 28 27 25 4 25 27 B 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 10519 34 5 67 8 x Figure 3 1 All cells in the neighbourhood are in exactly one concentric circle The index of the circle depends on the distance of the circle s cells to the centre of the neighbourhood circle 1 Depending on the resolution of the grid the neighbourhood radiu
59. ction expressing the strength of the influence of a cell with land use f on land use f for each distance d in the CA neighbourhood An example of an influence function for the influence of one land use on another land use is shown in figure 3 3 At every distance in the CA neighbourhood the influence function has a value that can be changed Hence in total the influence function is determined by 30 points This has the advantage of enabling the definition of very complex functions However its disadvantage is the large number of parameters that needs to be defined and calibrated which troubles the automatic calibration routine greatly To overcome this difficulty largely the influence functions are transformed to splines defined by only four points For these splines the following properties should hold e The inertia value is always given on the vertical axis that is at distance 0 Thus the first point is 0 inertia e second point must be located at distance 1 This point is indicated by 1 e The last point of the spline at distance d should have value 0 such that for all distances larger than d the function value is 0 This point is indicated by d 0 e There is one point b c that can be anywhere between the second and the last point Hence 1 lt 2 lt 4 An example of four point spline is shown in figure 3 3 The vertical lines represent the distances on the 30 concentric circles Previously the infl
60. dialog window Licence number Licenced to Valid until Exclusive to network Exclusive to machine Read ajicence file File name My Network Riles of type Geonamica licence files lic v Cancel About You can use the About command to open the About window You can find here the copyright notice and version number of MOLAND LIGHT that you are using The latter is important if you need assistance with the software from the developers see the section 2 1 9 If you experience problems or when you request an update of the software MOLAND Light Ranais PLUREL MOLAND Light Read this first MOLAND Light is a simplified version of the MOLAND land use modeling software It can be used to easily and quickly set up a simulation for a region in Europe configure a core set of drivers run a simulation on the servers of the JRC in Ispra and view the results in the form of the future land use maps and a selected set of indicators MOLAND Light 1 0 0 beta5 2 1 8 Closing MOLAND LIGHT You can use the Close project command to close MOLAND LIGHT gt Click the File menu and click Close project If you have a project file open and you have made any changes one message window will pop up and will ask whether you want to save changes before closing GEONAMICA 1 Save changes to E RIKS Wetherlands_ML Wetherlands geoproj Cos JC mw If
61. dicated before land use features are not modelled by the CA model but are taken as static elements In a more complex model the factors mentioned above are incorporated into the transition potentials and the allocation algorithm takes into account the number of cells that need to be allocated to each cell state which is exogenous to the CA model 3 1 3 Neighbourhood potential Purpose and use This block calculates the neighbourhood effect as described in the previous section Cellular Automata The neighbourhood effect is used to calculate the Transition potential values Clicking this model block will open the influence table dialog window that displays the influence function of each land use on each vacant or function land use Process description Each land use that occurs in a cell has an effect on the possible future occurrence of each land use function in all cells within the neighbourhood that is dependent on the distance between the two cells The influence functions describe the effect of one land use on another at each distance in the neighbourhood These influences are accumulated to produce the neighbourhood effect in each cell for each land use function 51 Algorithm The neighbourhood effect cell for land use f R 15 calculated based on the land use occupied by cell f c the influence function w p d expressing the strength of the influence of a cell with land use f on land use f for each dist
62. e 3 61 Input variables used in the suitability conversion model block 82 Name Description Unit i The fraction of land use function f that contributes to sector k t N The cell demand of land use function fin region at time t Number of i cells t S The suitability effect of land use function fin cell t f c The current land use map the land use that occupies cell c at time t Table 3 62 Output variables given by the suitability conversion model block Name Description Unit t S The average suitability effect of sector k in region i at time t The zoning conversion model block Purpose and use This model block determines the zoning of a region for a sector As input the zoning of a cell for a land use function is given Process description The zoning given per cell is aggregated summed up for a region and then transformed from land use function to sector by means of the function sector correspondence In order to rescale the zoning appropriately the aggregated zoning is divided by the number of cells that belongs to the corresponding sector in a particular region Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows t Fra i t7 ce f c f ki t Fre Li feLUr LU is the set of all function land uses is the set of all cells in region 1 Parameters input and output Table
63. e Edit menu on the menu bar For more information we refer the MCK user manual e Copy the content of land use legend file My documents Geonamica Metronamica Legends LandUse txt that you used in METRONAMICA to the legend file Legends Land Use txt that the Land use theme in MCK is used This way you can have the same legend for the land use maps in MCK as the one used in METRONAMICA Now you are going to set comparison algorithm gt Click the Algorithm button on the toolbar The Comparison algorithm dialog window opens gt Click the checkbox in front of Per category in the Comparison algorithm window Press the OK button on the top right of the window gt Now to choose which land use you want to investigate click the Parameters button F on the toolbar The Algorithm settings Per category dialog window opens gt Select Agriculture land use and click the OK button in the Algorithm settings Per category dialog window gt Click the Compare button 12 on the toolbar Now the Result map Per category Agriculture opens where there are 4 options available in none of the maps in both maps only in map 1 and not in map 2 and only in map 2 and not in map 1 Besides the land use map you can also analyse other categorical maps e g Urban cluster in the same way To do this import and select another type of categorical map from the dropdown list on the toolbar and repeat the steps above If you are interested in looking at t
64. e application window the Main window and the Land use map These windows cannot be closed You can move them and change their size to organise your workspace including minimizing or maximizing them but cannot close them Main window The Main window is divided into two parts the navigation pane to the left of the splitter bar and the content pane to the right The navigation pane consists of 3 tabs Drivers Indicators and Analysis If one of the tabs is clicked the list of elements appears below the tab Clicking on an elements the underlying contents is displayed on in the content pane on the right side 12 of the main window You can expand one of the tabs by clicking on this tab and you can close this tab by clicking another tab i Main window DA Section Content pane 00 51557 2030 100496 Splitter Bar Population people lt 8 window window is split into 5 viewing areas called panes Panes separated from each other by means of Splitter bars Map window is used to view indicators such as the land use map environmental indicators and socio economic indicators The Land use map window is a map window We will use the Land use map window as one example of a map window You can open and close map windows except for the Land use map window Beware opened maps windows are updated while a scenario runs This consumes processing time and
65. e is used to configure various parts of the simulation and it contains references to all the files that are required to run models in the system The project file used in MOLAND LIGHT has the extension geoproj A project file contains at least one integrated scenario The locations of input data and files and parameter values of all integrated scenarios can be stored in a single project file For MOLAND Light an integrated scenario is composed of e The population demand in number of people from 2000 2030 e The demand for industrial and commercial area from 2000 2030 e The demand for agricultural area from 2000 2030 e The demand for forested area from 2000 2030 Other drivers are available in the system but not accessible to the user For an overview of all drivers we refer to chapter 3 Model description In the full MOLAND version all these drivers are accessible to the user 2 2 2 Opening a project file In the section Getting started we explained how to install and start MOLAND LIGHT and how to create a server project We assume from now on that you have read this information that you have successfully installed MOLAND LIGHT on your computer and you have knowledge of the different technical terms introduced gt Open the geo project file of your interest in MOLAND LIGHT For more information about how to open a project file see the section Opening an existing project file Once all files have been loaded two windows appear in th
66. e toolbar If the 2nd Map window is not yet open then you can do so by clicking the 2 button 34 The Result map window contains the result map This map shows the spatial result of the last performed map comparison Depending on the selected comparison method the results are presented in a continuous scale or a nominal scale The Result statistics window contains the statistical results of the last performed map comparison The Comparison settings dialog window allows setting and viewing the settings belonging to the active comparison method Comparing the land use maps for different years of one integrated scenario First we analyse how the maps of the Baseline integrated scenario changes over time gt Go to the Analysis tab in the navigation pane on the left hand side of the Main window of MOLAND LIGHT Press the Start MCK button in the content pane on the right hand side of the window The Open dialog window of the MCK opens Click the Cancel button in the Open dialog window Select the Open option on the File menu of the MAP COMPARISON KIT The Edit Log File dialog window of the MCK opens Map Comparison Kit 3 0 s Tools Window Help gt gt Edit Log File Click the New theme item and give a name Land use for the new group of maps that you are going to import Press the Import button in the Edit Log File window The Import dialog window opens You will find the logged maps rst of t
67. each cell c on the map initialise numerator and denominator to 0 for each cell c in the neighbourhood of cell c add the weights to the numerator and denominator end for numerator E set the value of cell c to _ if both are positive or else to no data denominator end for Parameters input and output Table 3 29 Neighbourhood indicator parameters Name Description Search radius cells The radius in cells within which the algorithm looks for a land use that will be added to the numerator denominator or both By default the minimum value for this parameter is 1 and the maximum is 25 A value of 1 will only count the current cell The default value for this parameter is 10 Numerator The weight with which the corresponding land use will be added to the numerator These values can range from 0 to 1000 and are set to 0 by default Denominator The weight with which the corresponding land use will be added to the denominator These values can range from 0 to 1000 and are set to 0 by default 3 2 4 Distance indicator Purpose and use This type of indicator approximates the smallest distance from each cell occupied by one of a set of land uses to a cluster of cells that are occupied by a different set of land uses The minimum size of a cluster can be specified and the measure of distance can be adjusted Process description The distance between each pair of cells is approximated b
68. ectors is based on the existing socio economic activity in the study area as well as regional and local 72 characteristics Local characteristics that can be taken into account are the suitability for different land use functions the available space and the local accessibility Constraints e The spatial interaction component of the model is based on the underlying assumption that the different regions have centres of gravity cities that are in competition with one another Since the data is organised by administrative regions rather than by centres of gravity unexpected problems can occur that have an impact on the results Equation rules or algorithm Figure 3 7 explains the relations between the different components of the regional interaction model and its relation to the other models incorporated in the full MOLAND system Elements in black are included in the regional interaction model elements in grey represent components of the MOLAND system that provide input to the regional interaction model The arrows show the flows of information black arrows represent current values and dashed arrows lagged values values from the previous time step Regional attractivity for activity in all sectors Cell demands per land use Regional Activi Regional productivity Figure 3 7 The relations between the different components of the regional interaction model and its relation to the other models incorporated in MOLAN
69. en G 1993 Cellular Dynamics and GIS Modelling Spatial Complexity Geographical Systems 1 2 3 1 2 Cellular Automata Cellular automata CA get their name from the fact that they consist of cells like the cells on a checkerboard and that cell states may evolve according to a simple transition rule the automaton A conventional cellular automaton consists of e a Euclidean space divided into an array of identical cells For geographical applications a 2 or 3 dimensional array is most practical e a cell neighbourhood For flow and diffusion processes the 4 Von Neumann neighbourhood or 8 Moore neighbourhood adjacent cells are sufficient but for most socio economic processes larger neighbourhoods are required e a set of discrete cell states e a set of transition rules which determine the state of a cell as a function of the states of cells in the neighbourhood e discrete time steps with all cell states updated simultaneously Until recently Cellular Automata models raised only limited interest in the geographical community despite the fact that Tobler 1979 referred to them as geographical models Originally they were developed to provide a computationally efficient technique for investigating the general nature of dynamical systems Recent applications however have 47 been directed at representing geographical systems more realistically both in terms of the processes modelled and the geographical
70. ential phases such as the updating the models and testing of its input which are of no direct interest to the user before it makes one simulation time step This takes a while You will notice that the action is finished when the simulation clock changes to next simulation year and the land use map in the Land use map window is updated If you select the Step command the models will be automatically updated if this has not been done manually Run To perform a simulation for the whole simulation period you can use the Run command on the Simulation menu or press the Run button on the toolbar The simulation starts running until the next pause moment has been reached and the progress can be followed as the Land use map window and the simulation progress clock are updated on a yearly basis Unless other pauses are set see the section Pauses the simulation will halt at the end of the simulation period If you select the Run command the models of the system will be automatically updated if this has not been done manually Stop You can pause a running simulation by pressing the Stop button on the toolbar or using the Stop command on the Simulation menu When the simulation is stopped it finishes the calculations for the current simulation year and stops The simulation continues when you select the Step or Run You can also pause the simulation at predefined instances see Section Pauses Pauses To set the pauses in the simulation you can
71. er of people or jobs t l The activity in sector k and region i at time previous time step Number of people or jobs The crowding effect in region i at time t Table 3 69 Output variables given by the productivity model block Name Description Unit W The productivity of sector k in region i at time t Number of people or jobs cell The crowding effect model block Purpose and use This model block calculates the crowding effect The purpose is to account for the situation where demand for cells is actually higher than the number of available cells 85 Process description The crowding effect can occur in a region if the cell demand of all land use functions i e economic and population is larger then the number of cells in a region that are not features i e cells that can be occupied by a land use function The cell demand is approximated by the ratio of the current activity over the lagged productivity as the current productivity is not available In fact its computation is using the crowding effect Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows DG EEA 1 1 keK gp Ws TAS 1 Here is the set of all sectors and LU is the set of all vacant and function land uses Parameters input and output Table 3 70 Input variables used in the crowding effect model block Name Description Unit t
72. et up to simulate known land use changes for the period 1990 2000 and use exactly the same data sets and parameter set All scores are above 0 which indicates that all applications do explain land use changes to some extent Moreover the validation applications are equally accurate as the calibration areas if not a little higher This indicates that the system is not over calibrated towards a few regions but instead that the parameter set is general At the other hand these results show that dynamics in urban areas are generally simulated with more accuracy than those in rural areas as both Patras and Veszprem yield lower scores compared to the more urban areas Activity Region Kappa Simulation Calibration Maastricht Aachen Duren 0 29 Valencia 0 24 Patras 0 01 Warsaw 0 09 Validation Talinn 0 47 Munich 0 12 Veszprem 0 08 Parma Reg Emilia Modena 0 29 4 4 Parameter set This section presents the parameters that are included in MOLAND LIGHT Each parameter is explained shortly while a more elaborate explanation can be found in the model descriptions of the MOLAND model see chapter 3 4 4 1 Regional model Population is converted into density in a way similar to the regional model in MOLAND except that all applications have only one region Therefore there is no migration and parameters related to migration are not included The parameters that are included are listed below Cons
73. f the text box The Select MCK log file window opens gt Navigate to the location that you want to store the logged maps and click the Open button gt Enter the name of the log file next to File name gt Press the Save button Select MCK log file Baseline log Save as type log files 109 Editing log moments In the Log moments pane on the lower left part of the Log settings window you can specify moments for which maps will be logged First of all you can select the time format used in the file names of the logged maps from a number of presets including the year the full date and the full date and time To do so select the format of interest from the dropdown list next to Time format You can make a list of logging moments by using the Add button the Generate button the Delete button and the Reset button of the Log moments pane This works similarly to Defining writing moments in the Write to Excel The system allows you to change the display format on the Add log moment and Generate log moments dialog windows by using the Pauses command in the Simulation menu see the 29 section Pauses You can change the settings in the Maps to log pane and the settings of in the Log moments pane while the simulation is still advancing Turning logging on To activate the logging functions you have to press the Turn logging on button on the lower right pane of the Log settings dialog
74. flags are therefore parameters of the accessibility model block Explicit accessibility When determining the distance from a certain location to the nearest link of a certain type we should take into account that areas occupied by some specific land uses such as lakes cannot be crossed Hence this distance cannot be measured in a straight line To achieve this effect in our distance determining algorithm we say that a segment of the network is not reachable from a cell occupied by an impassable land use However while some land uses are impassable for activity generated by other land uses they are passable for activity generated by its own land use think for example of a military land use Therefore when a land use is impassable the explicit accessibility for the same land use is equal to the implicit accessibility while the explicit accessibility for other land uses is 0 Total accessibility These four types of accessibility are combined in a single value in the range 0 1 for each land use and each cell expressing the effect that the transportation network has on the possible future occurrence of that land use in that cell If the cell is currently occupied by an impassable land use the total accessibility is equal to the explicit accessibility Otherwise the total accessibility equals the product of the zonal accessibility the local accessibility and the implicit accessibility Algorithm The local accessibi
75. fying if the land use is impassable for other land uses or not The relative weight of the local accessibility for a certain link type and land use in the total local accessibility for that land use Accessibility coefficient expressing the importance for land usef of having good access to certain elements e of the infrastructure network Output Table 3 5 Output given in the Land use model Name Description Unit LU Land use of cell y at time t References Engelen G White R Uljee I 1997 Integrating Constrained Cellular Automata Models GIS and Decision Support Tools for Urban Planning and Policy Making In Decision Support Systems in Urban planning Edited by H Timmermans Chapman amp Hall Part II Engelen G White R Uljee I Drazan P 1995 Using Cellular Automata for Integrated Modelling of Socio environmental Systems Environmental monitoring and Assessment 30 203 214 White R Engelen G Uljee I 1997 The Use of Constrained Cellular Automata for High Resolution Modelling of Urban Land Use Dynamics Environment and Planning B Part II 24 323 343 White R Engelen G 1997 Cellular Automata as the Basis of Integrated Dynamic Regional Modelling Environment and Planning B 24 235 246 White R Engelen G 1993 Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land Use Patterns Environment and Planning A 25 8 1175 1199 White R Engel
76. hange 70 3 2 8 Spatial metric indicator anssen eeen se onee 71 3 3 MBB Regional interaction anssen ereen ers eeonseenseenseenseenseenseenseensvensvensteesneenneen 72 3 3 1 Description MBB Regional interaction nennen erneer eeen seenseenseenseenseenn 72 3 3 2 ACV a ahi ne eatin 75 3 33 National growths deedeetee eee 75 3 34 tien leenen le 76 3 3 5 _Attractivity for activity in all sectors naan vennvennvenseersversversnersneennvenn 77 3 3 0 1 Productivity 22 be dees tendons E 84 3 3 7 Cell demands per land use naor onne enne enneenneennvenseensvensvenseersnvennvenn 87 4 Data preparation and calibration uns enns enne enneersverseerse eenn 89 4 1 Model specification dane einai 89 Alle Regions mapsa 89 41 2 Land se maps aa edet este deet 89 4 153 Surtability maps R Tea aon Bau TAEA 90 4 1 4 Zoning na F o EAE E EE E S 90 ATS Transport networks ninna eia A A A A E Ea 91 4AL6 L nduse demands rr soveerserrenndarvenseneen vonden verte e e i 91 41 7 Population demands nnnknendens nertsen ATE iat cated 91 42 Calibration and validation procedure nanne eenn 91 43 Calibration and validation results annen
77. he Open Excel workbook buttons become enabled on the right low pane of the window You can only change the settings of in the Writing moments but you cannot change settings in the Excel sheet name pane that are greyed out Write to Excel settings Writing moments 2000 Jan 01 00 00 00 2005 Jan 01 00 00 00 2010 Jan 01 00 00 00 2020 Jan 01 00 00 00 2030 Jan 01 00 00 00 2040 Jan 01 00 00 00 2050 Jan 01 00 00 00 It is very important to press the Save settings button to finish the adjustments while keeping the system writing model output to the Excel workbook Only the data for moments which are later than the current simulated time will be written to the Excel workbook The function of Write to Excel on the Options menu is still preceded with a tick mark If you press the Open Excel workbook button the function of Write to Excel will be switched off You can always check whether the link to Excel is activated from the tick mark Write to Excel on the Options menu Opening Excel workbook To stop writing to Excel and view the Excel workbook you can press the Open Excel workbook button The Excel workbook opens immediately showing the worksheets with the names that you defined You can use it now for further analysis of the simulation data 27 E Microsoft Excel Book1 File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Arial 0 gt BZ U ey 9 0 00 Demand type 2000 01 00 00 00 P
78. he baseline scenario in the folder of My documents Geonamica MOLAND Light Log by default or in the specific folder that you defined in the section Log maps gt gt 35 Select the rst in the Files of type box Select the map that you want to compare Repeat this step to import all the maps that you want to compare The imported maps are displayed on the Land use list gt Click the OK button in the Edit Log File dialog window A Save as dialog window opens where you are required to name and save the project file of in og format Name the log file and press the OK button in the Save as window A log file is actually a file which contains a reference to one or several maps that you want to perform comparisons When you open a log file in MCK you can easily load all maps referred in the log file gt Select the maps that you want to analyse from the dropdown list in the toolbar next to T and next to for instance Land use map_2006 rst as Map 1 and Land use map_2030 rst as Map 2 gt Click the 1 button to open the land use map for 2003 in the Zst Map window and click the 2 button to open the land use map for 2030 in the 2nd Map window Note that the current legends in the left side of the map windows are still set by default There are two ways to change the legend files of the land use maps that you imported in the MCK e Edit the legend one by one in the Legend Editor by clicking on the Legend option on th
79. he statistical information regarding changes you can go to the option Result statistic on the Options menu or press the Statistics button on the toolbar Numerical maps like the accessibility maps suitability maps value at stake maps etc that show numerical values can be compared using measures that can be found under the Compare numerical maps in the Comparison Algorithm window Select the total potential maps for certain land use or any other numerical map in the dropdown list on the toolbar gt Click the Algorithm button on the toolbar The Comparison Algorithm dialog window opens gt Select Comparison Algorithm Compare numerical maps Cell by cell b a 36 gt Investigate changes in total potential for certain land use over time EB Comparison algorithm Compare categorical maps OPer category OKappa OFuzzy Kappa OFuzzy Inference System OFuzzy Comparison w Unequal Resolution DAggregated cells OMoving Window based Structure Compare numerical maps Cell by cell mb a Dabs b O b a divided by max abs b Oabs b a divided by max abs b Ob divided by a Oabs b divided by a OFuzzy Numerical Other operations Under development Experimental In this exercise you have investigated the actual land use change over one simulation A more interesting investigation would be to compare the results of two different scenarios This you will do next Comparing
80. his model block calculates the cell demand per sector per region This cell demand is important to determine the number of cells which will eventually be allocated in the CA model Process description The cell demand is computed as the ratio of activity over productivity rounded to the nearest integer The intuition is clear If the activity is very high but the productivity is low then a lot of cells are needed in order to accommodate the activity Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable N for all land uses expect agriculture looks as follows t Gy N 0 5 gt W t ki Parameters input and output Table 3 74 Input variables used in the cell demand model block Name Description Unit t The activity in sector k and region i at time t Number of people or jobs W The productivity of sector k in region i at time t Number of people or jobs per cell Table 3 75 Output variables given by the cell demand model block Name Description Unit t N The cell demand of sector k in region i at time t Number of cells 87 4 Data preparation and calibration This section describes the calibration of MOLAND LIGHT This includes the data that was used for the application the general calibration procedure the calibration and validation results and the parameter set that was obtained from this The MOLAND LIGHT system uses exactly the
81. in an additional region map Local accessibility The local accessibility reflects the extent to which the need for the presence or absence of the transportation network of a land use can be fulfilled The network consists of a number of network layers that are made up of nodes such as stations and links such as roads The local accessibility is first determined for each node or link type separately and thereafter combined into one value for each land use and each cell 52 For each land use the local accessibility for a certain link type can be either decreasing or increasing over distance indicated by a positive or negative value for the distance decay parameter respectively A positive value indicates that the land use needs to be located close to that link type whereas a negative value indicates that the land use needs to be located away from the link type The functional form of this effect is hyperbolic with respect to the distance where the distance decay parameter determines the rate of the increase or decrease see figure 3 4 Note that the local accessibility per link type lies in the range 0 1 1 0 10 Figure 3 4 Effect of proximity to network as function of the distance for a value of 1 and 1 respectively for the distance decay parameter An increase in the absolute value of the parameter will multiply the graph with respect to the vertical axis When there is a positive value for the
82. in cell c CZ is calculated 1 if gt t fe l t 2 t P f c 1 nen if bron lt lt pfc 1 0 ift lt t fo In this equation is x6 the planning period from which onwards land use f will be allowed in cell t the start of planning period i and za zoning anticipation parameter for land use f Parameters input and output Table 3 15 Zoning parameters Name Description ti The start of the first and second planning period for each zoning map Parameter controlling the steepness of the increase in zoning for land use f from the last disallowed planning period to the first allowed planning period Table 3 16 Zoning output Name Description numerical map for each function land use specifying whether that land use is allowed in each cell 1 or not 0 3 1 7 Transition potential Purpose and use The transition potentials form the basis on which the allocation algorithm is to determine which land use will occur in each cell after a time step has been made They can be interpreted as the utility level that a location ascribes to a particular land use being present and vice versa which a land use ascribes to being located on that location 58 Process description The transition potential combines the effect of the neighbourhood accessibility suitability and zoning on the possible future occurrence of each land use on a pa
83. ion The neighbourhood effect The fundamental idea of a CA is that the state of a cell at any time depends on the states of the cells within its neighbourhood Thus a neighbourhood effect must be calculated for each of the land use function states to which the cell could be converted In our models the neighbourhood effect represents the attraction positive and repulsion negative effects of the various land uses and land covers within the neighbourhood see figure 3 2 49 Attraction Functions Features E set fj NU 0 2 Repulsion Figure 3 2 For the calculation of the neighbourhood effect a circular neighbourhood consisting of 196 cells is applied left For each land use function the transition rule is a weighted sum of distance functions calculated relative to all other land use functions and features right In general cells that are more distant in the neighbourhood will have a smaller effect Thus each cell in a neighbourhood will receive a weight according to its state and its distance from the central cell Specifically the neighbourhood effect is calculated as Ry DE Woe Elec c eD c with R fe The neighbourhood effect in cell c for land use f at time t t f c The land use occupied by cell c at time t d a b The Euclidian distance between cell a and cell b see table 3 6 Wrs 4 The influence fun
84. ion results 2 User Manual This chapter describes the user manual of MOLAND LIGHT a spatial decision support system built with the GEONAMICA framework MOLAND LIGHT is developed to model explore and visualize land use change effects of the different scenarios for urban and regional planning applications This manual contains five the sections Section 2 1 Getting started explains how to install MOLAND LIGHT on your computer and how to start the program It also describes the main features of the graphical user interface Section 2 2 Opening a project file describes the primary steps of opening a project file with MOLAND LIGHT and the structures of the main window and the map window Section 2 3 Running a simulation contains a step by step description of how to run the simulation in MOLAND LIGHT Section 2 4 The MOLAND Light menu system offers a systematic description of each option in the menu system Through this documentation for the convenience of the user a special arrow symbol gt is used in a step by step description of how to complete the action that you can follow along at your computer For example gt Click Open project on the File menu 2 1 Getting started This chapter explains how to install MOLAND LIGHT and its accompanying tools on your computer and how to start the program It also describes the main features of the graphical user interface 2 1 1 Computer requirements MOLA
85. irectly on your screen Start writing While this function is activated Write to Excel on the Options menu is preceded with a tick mark Legend files folder v Write to Excel Log maps Animate maps Now you can run the simulation with the link to the Excel by clicking the Run button on the toolbar Note that the system only starts writing results to Excel from the first writing moments after the current simulation year For example if the current simulation year is 2005 you press the Start writing button and then press the Run button The first writing moment will be the year 2008 which is the first writing moments after the current simulation year 2005 as depicted in the figure below 26 Writing moments 2028 Jan 01 00 00 00 2003 Jan 01 00 00 00 add 2008 2 01 00 00 00 2013 Jan 01 00 00 00 2018 Jan 01 00 00 00 2023 Jan 01 00 00 00 Delete If you want to write results to Excel from the start year of the simulation after setting the writing moments you can follow the steps below gt Click the Start writing button of the Write to Excel settings dialog window gt Click the Reset button on the toolbar gt Click the Run button on the toolbar Saving settings You can change settings for writing to Excel while the simulation is running gt Click the marked Write to Excel option on the Options menu The Write to Excel settings window opens again Now the Save settings and t
86. ise you will get an error message Active integrated scenario Before you start running the simulation you need first to select one integrated scenario as the active integrated scenario gt Click the dropdown list next to Integrated Scenario on the toolbar All the available integrated scenarios will be displayed on the list gt Select your integrated scenario of interest from the list for example the Baseline integrated scenario Note that the applications stored at the JRC server only include a baseline scenario You can create alternative scenarios in the way described in the previous sections After you select the integrated scenario from the list the system loads the integrated scenario immediately as the active integrated scenario When collapsed the list box shows the name of the active integrated scenario You can easily switch to another integrated scenario from the active integrated scenario dropdown list on the toolbar Note that loading the active integrated scenario means loading the input data files and parameters defined in this integrated scenario to the graphic user interface In this case the models have not been updated to the changes You can use the Update Step Run and Reset command to update the models of the system to the changes Reset You can switch the simulation clock back to the start year of the simulation by pressing the Reset button on the toolbar or by using the Reset command on the Simulation men
87. lculate their size To identify all clusters we mark all centre cells that is cells that are not ignored and for which all cells within the search radius are also not ignored and all cells that are within the search radius of a centre cell We then define a cluster to be a group of horizontally or vertically adjacent cells that are not ignored where each cluster must contain at least one marked cell The value of each cell in a cluster is equal to the size of the cluster which is defined as the sum of the target value of the current land use of each cell in the cluster The value of all other cells is set to data 65 Algorithm clear all marks from all cells for each cell c in the model area if the current land use in cell c is checked and cell c does not contain a link type that is an obstacle assign mark I to cell c end if end for for each cell c that has mark I or mark if all cells in the neighbourhood of cell c have mark I or mark IT assign mark IT to cell and all cells in the neighbourhood of cell end if end for for each cell c that has mark remove all marks from cell c D fe size 0 while L remove the cell d that is first in the list L from L and add it to list M increment size with area of cell d for each cell e that is horizontally or vertically adjacent to cell d if cell e has mark I or mark II remove all marks from cell e add cell e to the end of list L end if end for end
88. les used in the neighbourhood conversion model block Name Description Unit The fraction of land use function f that contributes to sector k F fk t N The cell demand of land use function fin region at time t Number of i cells t R The neighbourhood effect of land use function fin cell c t f c The current land use map the land use that occupies cell c at time Table 3 60 Output variables given by the neighbourhood conversion model block Name Description Unit The average neighbourhood effect of sector k in region i at time t koi The suitability conversion model block Purpose and use This model block determines the suitability of a region for a sector As input the suitability of a cell for a land use function is given Process description The suitability given per cell is aggregated summed up for a region and then transformed from land use function to sector by means of the function sector correspondence In order to rescale the suitability appropriately the aggregated suitability is divided by the number of cells that belongs to the corresponding sector in a particular region Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows fk 5 feLUr ce f c f gt Fre feLUr Here LU is the set of all function land uses is the set of all cells in region 1 Parameters input and output Tabl
89. lity of cell to link type s for land use f LA is calculated a at ifa gt 0 ale a t 227 LA 0 ifa 0 a 5 1 otherwise Ds a 54 In this equation D is the distance in cells between cell and the nearest cell that is covered by a link type s at time and the accessibility distance decay parameter expressing the importance of good access to an infrastructure element of type s for land use f A positive value indicates that land use f is positively influenced by the nearness of infrastructure of type s and a negative value indicates a negative influence The local accessibility of all link types with negative distance decays is defined t neg __ t w LA 5 57 w ws seS In these equation is LASS the total negative local accessibility of cell c for land use f at time t S the set of all link types that have a negative distance decay parameter for land use f W f accessibility the values of these parameters lie in the range 0 1 LA fe accessibility of cell to link type s for land use f the total weight of the local the relative weight of the proximity to the different networks on the total local the local accessibilities with a negative distance decay parameter The total local accessibility of cell c for land use f LA is calculated 1 1 LAr 1 4 ses 1 1
90. lt the minimum value for neighbourhood this parameter is 1 and the maximum is 25 A value of 1 will only count the current indicator cell The default value for this parameter is 10 Numerator The weight with which the corresponding land use will be added to the numerator These values can range from 0 to 1000 and are set to 0 by default Denominator The weight with which the corresponding land use will be added to the Target cluster denominator These values can range from 0 to 1000 and are set to 0 by default This is the minimum size that a cluster of target cells should have to be considered a radius for target This value can range from 1 to 25 and is set to 10 by default distance indicator Role of land use Per land use you can specify whether it is a source a target or neither Range for Only count cells with the specific value for distance to map indicator counting cells for distance to map indicator Source for distance to map indicator Sets for each land use whether the distance to the target areas should be shown or not By default all sources are unchecked Area file for distance to map indicator Specifies the path and filename of a binary map file specifying the areas to which the distance should be calculated Unless a proper file is specified the indicator cannot be calculated Disturbance value The value of the disturbance can range from 0 to 25 and is set to 0 by default
91. mall model blocks that generally simplify in order to make complex phenomena quantifiable in such a manner that communication is either enabled or promoted Clearly with the system like MOLAND LIGHT which generates evolving land use patterns and the associated high resolution land use land cover maps the generation of spatially referenced indicators in a dynamic manner becomes a distinct possibility The calculation of indicators can be done as part of a post processing task on the spatial output written to file and stored during a simulation The MAP COMPARISON KIT and the OVERLAY TOOL are appropriate instruments to produce indicators based on land use changes respectively composite indicators based on the combination and weighing of land use and ancillary maps Alternatively it is possible to incorporate the calculation of spatial indicators in the system and have them calculated dynamically with the changing land use Like the other variables indicators are thus calculated on a yearly basis and are available in the model in the form of dynamic maps time charts and numeric outputs The functionality available in the spatial indicator models has the following characteristics e A set of indicator algorithms has been incorporated to visualise and assess the effects of urban spatial patterns and the possible effects of this in social economic and environmental terms but also on floods forest fires landslides and other natural hazards The o
92. n a particular area Process description For each cell that has a positive value in the ancillary map the value in that cell is set to the weight of the land use that currently occupies the cell Algorithm let A denote the value of cell c in the ancillary map for each cell c if A gt 0 set the value of cell c to the weight of the land use that occupies cell c else set the value of cell c to no data end if end for Parameters input and output Table 1 3 Mask mapping indicator parameters Description The value of the disturbance can range from 0 to 25 and is set to 0 by default Range for counting Only count cells with the specific value for mask mapping indicator cells 3 2 7 Land use change indicator Purpose and use This type of indicator can be used to display particular land use changes between a base year and the current year in particular areas Process description The current land use map is compared to the land use map for a base year which can be entered in the indicator The resulting value can be specified for each possible combination of a land use in the base year and in the current year The results can be limited to a specific area with the use of an ancillary map to indicate the area or with the use of the suitability map for a particular land use to indicate suitable areas 70 Algorithm for each cell c mask 0 if suitability is used as mask if the value of cell c in the selec
93. n form a restriction on the cell allocation algorithm of the CA model Specifically the levels of activity are converted to a number of cells that needs to be allocated to each land use function by the CA model The level of activity in a sector and region can be expressed in terms of the number of jobs if we are dealing with an economic sector or in terms of the number of people if we are dealing with a population sector The approach builds on an existing spatial interaction model White that has been used in previous projects and products ENVIRONMENT EXPLORER XPLORAH MOLAND and METRONAMICA In MOLAND LIGHT it is used to convert the total population per region to the regional demands for residential area The migration between regions is not simulated in MOLAND LIGHT In this section the full regional model will be described In the calibration section it is discussed what elements of the regional model are used in MOLAND LIGHT The allocation of the growth amongst the regions depends to a large extent on the relative attractiveness of each of the region In modelling the national socio economic growth and migration distance also plays a crucial role The underlying assumption for this is that regions can benefit from other attractive regions as long as the distance is not too far Furthermore people and jobs are reluctant to migrate over greater distances The attractiveness for the socio economic sectors population jobs in main economic s
94. n of national growth for sector k A Influence of the immigration emigration ratio on the fraction of national growth for sector k Table 3 39 Input variables used in the national growth model block Name Description Unit t l Xs The activity in sector k and region i at time previous time step Number of people or jobs tM The migration The number of people in sector k that move from Number of region i to region j at time t people or jobs t NA The total level of activity in sector k at time t Number of t people or jobs INA The total level of activity in sector k at time previous time step Number of k people or jobs Table 3 40 Output variables given by the national growth model block Name Description Unit tE The fraction of national growth of activity in sector k that ends up in Number of region i at time t people or jobs 3 3 4 Migration Purpose and use This model block determines the migration within a sector from one region to another This information is primarily used in the activity model block Process description The migration from one region to another is the product of the not inert activity of the former and the relative attractivity of the latter relative to the attractivity of the other regions The relative attractivity weighs the attractivities of the different regions in accordance to the interregional distances Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable
95. n the graph and choose Delete from the context menu You can change the range of the x and y axis as follows gt Right click in the graph and select Options from the context menu The Graph options dialog window opens gt Enter the new value for the lower and upper bounds of the x and y axis Graph options You can copy the graph as image or as text to the clipboard gt Right click in the graph and select Copy as image from the context menu The graph is copied as image and stored in the clipboard gt Right click in the graph and select Copy as text from the context menu The x y values on the graph are copied as texts and stored in the clipboard 2 3 3 Making changes to the drivers and saving a scenario Changes to drivers can be made in the driver section of the main window gt Change one or more drivers by setting adding or changes the values of the bullets in the graphs as described in the section Setting the drivers Save a project file The Save project command on the File menu allows you to save changes to driver values and to save the simulation output for the current simulation year in the current project file gt Click the Save project command on the File menu The Save project dialog window opens gt Enter a new integrated scenario name e g Scenario 1 in the text box next to Integrated scenario name gt Enter a description in the text box next to Integrated sce
96. nario description to reflect the changes you have made compared to the original baseline scenario gt Select Save as new scenario from the dropdown list next to Land use demand scenario gt Click the Details button to open the Scenario details dialog window gt Enter a descriptive name e g Land use Scenario 1 in the text box next to Name and enter a short description in the text box next to Description gt Click the Save button at the bottom of the Save simulation window to save the integrated scenario You will see the name of your integrated scenario appear in the toolbar Save a project file as The Save project as command on the File menu allows you to save the changes to data files and parameter values and to save the simulation output for the current simulation year with another project file name The same as saving project the action of saving project as will be completed by the combination of saving external files with all integrated scenarios under a different name gt Click the Save project as on the File menu The Save project file dialog window opens gt Enter a new project file name e g Arr Arlon alternative geoproj gt Press the Save button on the Save project dialog window The Save project dialog window opens gt Enter a new scenario name in the text box next to Integrated scenario name gt Enter the description text in the text box next to Integrated scenario description gt Select Sa
97. ndows Copy the shape and colour information in the selected area from Copy region another grid layer to the current grid layer This option is not available in MOLAND LIGHT Copy the colour information on the selected area from another grid value layer to the current grid layer This option is not available in MOLAND LIGHT L Save Grid Save the grid map that you select 2 3 Running a simulation The Main window of MOLAND LIGHT provides access to setting the drivers for integrated scenarios and analysing the impacts of these scenarios It follows the steps Drivers Indicators and Analysis each of which is explained in more detail below 16 2 3 1 Overview of working with MOLAND LIGHT Step 1 Setting the drivers When clicking on the Drivers tab in the navigation pane on the left hand side of the window you get access to the different types of drivers Population Industry and Commerce area Agriculture area and Forest area Steps required to view or to change driver settings are described in the sections Setting the drivers and Making changes to the drivers and saving a scenario Step 2 Running the simulation Obviously you cannot investigate all land use changes as well as other available information while the system is running Therefore you have several possibilities to export intermediate and final results of the simulation e You select an individual map and export it to analyse it
98. ne another Actors are in search for interesting locations and can occupy those when they have the financial power to do so Constraints e It is not possible to allocate more cells than there are available in the model area of the map e Land use demands are determined exogenously Equation rules or algorithm The following figure explains the relations between the different components of the land use model and its relation to the other models incorporated in MOLAND LIGHT Elements in 45 black are included in the land use model elements in grey represent other components of the MOLAND LIGHT system The arrows show the flows of information black arrows represent current values and dashed arrows lagged values values from the previous time step Accessibility Suitability Total potential Neighbourhood potential The equations used in the land use model are described in the sub sections of this section Each of the elements in black Neighbourhood potential Accessibility Suitability Zoning Transition potential and Land use is described in a separate the section Input Table 3 3 Input used in the Land use model Name Description Unit LUD Demands for land use for each function Number of cells ZA pre The zonal accessibility at time for land use function fin transport zone 2 Ze the transport zone in which cell is located Parameters Ta
99. neralised cost is expressed as the distance between region i and region j Currency at time t 1 1 The activity in sector k and region i at time previous time step Number of jobs Table 3 52 Output variables given by the job potential model block Name Description Unit VJ The job potential in sector k and region at time t koi The activity potential model block Purpose and use This model block determines the activity potential per region per sector Process description The activity potential per region and sector is a function of the level of activities in the same sector but in different regions in relation to the distances between the regions Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows Ry Parameters input and output Table 3 53 Parameters used in the activity potential model block Name Description Unit n The distance decay for sector k Table 3 54 Input variables used in the activity potential model block Name Description Unit td The distance between region i and region j at time t km i j The generalised cost is expressed as the distance between region i and Currency region j at time t ly The activity in sector k and region i at time previous time step Number of people or jobs Table 3 55 Output variables given by the activity potential model block Name Description
100. nfrastructure network The accessibility is calculated per land use function and only changes if the user changes the zonal accessibility parameters in the transport model or the infrastructure network or the accessibility coefficients the importance of different land use functions to be close to different elements of the network in the land use model e Dynamic interaction of land uses in the area immediately surrounding a location is represented by the Neighbourhood potential For each land use function a set of spatial interaction rules determines the degree to which it is attracted to or repelled by the other functions present in its surroundings a 196 cell neighbourhood If the attractiveness is high enough the function will try to occupy the location if not it will look for more attractive places New activities and land uses invading a neighbourhood over time will thus change its attractiveness for activities already present and others searching for space This process constitutes the highly non linear character of this model On the basis of these four elements the model calculates for every simulation step the transition potential for each cell and function In the course of time and until regional demands provided by the user or calculated in the regional model are satisfied cells will change to the land use function for which they have the highest transition potential Consequently the transition potentials reflect the pressu
101. o recreation Indicators that show a change over time are e Expansion of urban areas e Abandoned land e Forested areas category Deforestation e Forested areas category Afforestation To view the maps of the indicators which show a change over time you should first press the Step button or the Run button on the toolbar In the start year of the simulation the maps of the indicators which show a change over time are displayed as blank You can visualise indicators at any point in time any year during the simulation To visualise an indicator take the following steps gt Go to the Indicators tab of the Main window gt Select the sections in the navigation pane on the left hand side of the Main window the type of indicator you are interested in gt Click on the Show map button next to the indicator of interest map window opens where the name of the indicator is displayed in the title of the map window Soil sealing map _ DER O 7 le NUTS region boundaries IN Sealed soil jo RUR region boundaries jo Soil sealing map Named viewports All spatial indicators can be stored in log maps and as animations Please refer to the section Saving results to for more information about how to create log maps and animations How to compare indicators over time and between scenarios is described in the section Analysing results For the algorithms of environmental indicators see section 3 2
102. of a region for activity 10 k i k The distance decay for sector k The fraction of land use function f that contributes to sector k Wmin Minimum guaranteed level of cell productivity in each region for Number of people or sector k jobs cell tS Coefficient that determines the growth of the average cell productivity in a region for sector 5 Coefficient for the growth in activity the ratio of current activity lagged activity in a region i for sector k Coefficient of the crowding effect in a region for sector k Input Table 3 33 Input used in the Regional interaction model Name Description Unit Demand for jobs in the main economic sectors per region Number of jobs Demand for population per region Number of people 1 The neighbourhood effect of land use function fin cell t f c The current land use map the land use that occupies cell cat time t ty The suitability effect of land use function fin cell c at time fe t Ze The zoning effect of land use function fin cell c at time sc tA The accessibility effect of land use function f in cell c at time t fe td Distance between region i and region j at time t Km i j Generalised costs from the origin region to the destination region Currency jattime t Output Table 3 34 Output given in the Regional interaction model Name Description Unit ty The activity in sector k and region i at time t Number of people
103. ols Grid tools and Network tools You can open the context menu of the tool pane by right clicking which controls how tools are arranged on the desktop Change the manner in which different Expand all the tools TT in map window Expand all maps of map window are displayed Collapse all v Zoom tools i V Grid tools T Edit check and save grid map Network tools Edit and display network map Use the Zoom tools when you would like to see a location in more detail Close all the tools in map window Zoom tools Button Function Zoom in EN Zoom out Pan Zoom to Selected Fit Whole Map to Window When you activate one of these buttons and click the mouse pointer on the map you can carry out the selected zoom option Grid tools Use Grid tools to edit and view the information of the editable raster or grid maps that you have selected In MOLAND LIGHT all maps are not editable and only Inspect and Save Grid buttons are enabled Button Function Change the pointer to a pen The pen is used to pick a value from the Pen legend and enter it in a cell on the map This button is not enabled in MOLAND LIGHT Change the pointer to a bucket The bucket is used to pick a value from Flood the legend and enter it in larger contiguous areas of the map This button is not enabled in MOLAND LIGHT L Inspect Display the information of the selected map on the map wi
104. on Switch the simulation clock back to the start year of simulation Pauses Set the pauses of the simulation 2 4 3 Maps menu You can use the Maps menu to select different maps and open their map windows All kinds of maps available for the user are structured hierarchically by themes There are essentially two types of maps land use maps and indicator maps 40 4 4 b b gt Distance from residential to work Distance from residential to recreation gt Main w Elle 2 4 4 Options menu You can use the Options menu to personalise your workspace or to access the additional functionalities of MOLAND LIGHT Legend files folder Write to Excel Log maps Animate maps Option Function Legend files folder Select the folder in which the legend files that MOLAND LIGHT uses are located and stored Write to Excel Establish or interrupt a link between MOLAND LIGHT and the Microsoft Excel Workbook Log maps Store maps produced by the system in the form of rst files Animation maps Store dynamic maps produced by the system in the form of gif animations 2 4 5 Window menu You can use the Window menu to arrange the contents of the screen and to activate one of the opened windows Option Function Cascade Arrange multiple opened windows in an overlapped fashion Tile horizontal Arrange multiple opened windows one
105. opulation people Population 91360 Cell count cells Industry and com 83 Cell count cells Agriculture area 2725 Cell count cells Forest area 1772 13 M MOLAND Light Information Select destination and press ENTER or choose Paste Note that in order to establish a successful link it is required that Microsoft Excel is installed on your computer If MOLAND LIGHT cannot find Excel the Write to Excel on the Options menu will be greyed out Log maps You can use the Log maps command on the Options menu to store all the maps produced by the system in the form of rst files The system generates a Log File automatically when you use the Log maps command In the Log File all the maps that you selected to log are included You can analyse these logged maps files og with the MAP COMPARISON KIT see the section Analysing results When Log maps command is selected the Log settings dialog window opens Log settings Maps to log Entire model S MOLAND Light Dindicators 5 050 sealing 250 sealing map Urban expansion Urban expansion map DForested areas Forested areas map D Abandoned land DAbandoned land map Urban dusters Urban dusters map Distance from residential to work Distance from residential to work map File names MCK log file C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLA Time format Year Log moments 2000 Jan 01
106. or jobs IN The cell demand of land use function fin region i at time t Number of cells fii The migration The number of people in sector k that move from Number of people or region i to region j at time t jobs 74 3 3 2 Activity Purpose and use This model block keeps track of the level of activity i e the number of jobs and people in economic and population sectors respectively The initial count is taken from data Process description The level of activity in a region is composed of the inert activity the immigrated activity and a part of the overall national growth of activity Algorithm The function which determines the level of activity looks as follows t 1 1 t t D RDD jit Epi J Parameters input and output Table 3 35 Parameters used in the activity model block Name Description Unit The inertia for sector k Table 3 36 Input variables used in the activity model block Name Description Unit 1 1 pen The activity in sector k and region i at time previous time step Number of i people or jobs t M The migration The activity in sector k that move from region to Number of region j at time t people or jobs t The fraction of national growth of activity in sector k that ends up in Number of i region i at time t people or jobs Table 3 37 Output variables given by the activity model block Name Descrip
107. ories that you have selected If you selected the option in Step 7 the installation programme also creates a programme group named Geonamica under Start Programs that contains a shortcut to MOLAND LIGHT gt Step 9 When the installation is complete press the Finish button gt Step 10 Follow the procedure outlined in the steps 1 to 9 to install the MAP COMPARISON KIT gt Step 10 You can start to use MOLAND LIGHT when the installation is finished see the section 2 1 5 The first time you try to open the software you are asked to enter a license file Please select the license file provided to you To uninstall MOLAND LIGHT gt Step 1 Click the Start button in the Windows Taskbar Move the mouse pointer to Control Panel and click The Control Panel window opens Select the Add or Remove Programs icon by double clicking on it Click the Change or Remove Programs button in the Add or Remove Programs Properties dialog window gt Step 2 Select MOLAND LIGHT from the list of applications that can be automatically removed by Windows and press the Change Remove button gt Step 3 The Confirm File Deletion dialog window opens Press the OK button to confirm that you want to remove MOLAND LIGHT and all its files from your hard disk gt Step 4 Repeat the steps 1 to 3 to uninstall the MAP COMPARISON KIT 21 3 MOLAND LIGHT directory structure By default MOLAND LIGHT is installed in the directory C Program Files Geonamica
108. ornvenvenneeneenvenneenvenvennvenvenvenn 92 4 4 Parameter Set antal eter re rela EE 92 4 41 Regional model 92 4 4 2 Stochastic perturbation anness ernn eeen veense 93 443 Neighbourhood 93 AAAS A eese 93 FAS Suitability and zonige verven 93 4 5 RELEPENCES emer aed 94 1 Introduction The PLUREL project Peri urban Land Use Relationships is a large research project funded within the 6th framework programme of the European Union It aims to develop strategies and sustainability assessment tools for urban rural linkages to support the analysis of urbanisation trends in the EU so that ways can be identified of both supporting this process and mitigating its negative impacts The main scale of analysis of the project is the so called Rural Urban Regions RUR which has been defined based on the concept of a functional urban region an urban core and its surrounding commuting ring A RUR can therefore include both rural and peri urban areas as well as the core city MOLAND LIGHT is jointly developed by JRC and RIKS within the PLUREL project This is a tool with which you can easily assess future land developments in a RUR region of your choice MOLAND LIGHT is based on the MOLAND land use change model and the METRONAMICA modelling framework but simplified to allow accessibili
109. ory structure annen enne erse 5 2 1 4 Comparison Kit directory 5 5 21S Starting MOLA ND aro ity sashimi 5 2 1 6 Screen layouta 7 2 1 7 _ System information unne onse 9 2 1 8 Closing MOLAND Light nnen enne 10 2 1 9 If you experience problems e 11 2 2 Opening aprojece E 12 2 2 1 Project file and integrated scenario unne unv ens ennvenvensvensverseerseeennvennvenn 12 22 2 Opening a project flesse 12 2 3 Running a Simulations 16 2 3 1 Overview of working with MOLAND Light nennen 17 2 322 Setting the drivers nn adden daden desea aR 18 2 3 3 Making changes to the drivers and saving a scenariO nunnsannenn enne envennenn 19 2 34 RUMMING G SCONATIO 20 235 TSAVING TSU tS ee a E Er dete st ca Ei N 24 23 0 WAC WINS resultSp deden eae aa aaea 31 23 7 Analysing results e A AE E E E ET EA 33 2 4 The MOLAND Light menu system 38 ZAT ever 38 2 4 2 Simulation Men vesten benenden ader aah 40 DAS Maps
110. output maps of integrated scenarios The simulation that you used until now the Baseline integrated scenario represents an extrapolation of observed historic developments combined with expected future developments You can say it shows a business as usual scenario that incorporates the processes as they are observed in the past and expected for the future However the full power of a spatial decision support system lies not in this baseline integrated scenario but in investigating different integrated scenarios and analysis of scenarios and effects of policy measures Hence it helps you to answer what if type of questions In this exercise you will compare an alternative integrated scenario with the Baseline integrated scenario For this we will again use the MCK To incorporate the logged maps from the alternative integrated scenario gt Go to the option Log file on the Options menu The Edit Log File dialog window opens gt Press the Import button on the right hand side of the Edit Log file window gt Select the rst file type and select the logged maps of your integrated scenario of choice gt Click the OK button in the Edit Log File window Instead of comparing the start and end map of the simulation within one integrated scenario you can investigate the difference between two integrated scenario results We will again do this per category gt Inthe MCK select the Baseline integrated scenario result ma
111. ow in which you will run your models You can arrange windows as you like in the application window Before a project file has been opened the window is empty except for its Caption bar Status bar Toolbar and Menu bar The different components of this window will be described in the next paragraphs Menu bar Caption bar GEONAMICA Arr Arlen Ei Main w fe Status bar Application Window Caption bar The Caption bar also called title bar of the application window shows the name of the application GEONAMICA As soon as a project file is opened the title will be extended with the name of the project file Menu bar The Menu bar of the application window contains the main menu of MOLAND LIGHT The commands are logically organised in the menu so that you will quickly become comfortable with the various functions of the software The menus are summarised in the table below subsequent sections elaborate on the description The section The MOLAND Light menu system gives an overview of all menu commands Use this menu To File Manage your project files Simulation Control the simulation Maps Select and view maps Options Customise the workspace and select types of output Window Manage your windows on the screen Help Look up the system information and find help documentation Toolbar The Toolbar gives faster access to some of the more frequently used commands that are also
112. p in 2030 as Map 1 and the alternative integrated scenario result map in 2030 as Map 2 Now you can investigate the categorical maps in more detail gt Click the Algorithm button on the toolbar The Comparison algorithm dialog window opens gt Click the checkbox in front of Per category the Comparison algorithm window Press the OK button on the top right of the window 37 gt Click the Parameters button on the toolbar gt Select your land use of interest in the Algorithm settings Per category dialog window Now you can investigate the difference between the result maps of two integrated scenarios 2 4 The MOLAND LIGHT menu system This section explains the different functions that are available from the MOLAND LIGHT menu system Some GEONAMICA functions are not available in MOLAND LIGHT These are greyed out they are visible in the menu in a light grey colour but they do not result in further actions when invoked Consequently these functions are not described in detail in this section Other functions are only accessible when they are relevant For instance the Stop command in the Simulation menu is only accessible when the simulation is running The menus are treated as they appear in the Menu bar from left to right and per menu from the top to the bottom Most commands in this section have already been described in other sections You can find more detailed information for these commands through the links in the ta
113. pen architecture of GEONAMICA enables the straightforward incorporation of additional indicator algorithms at a later stage e The algorithms that have been implemented perform mathematical operations on the land use map and the output of the regional interaction model generated in the course of a simulation and on external data that can be entered interactively e The algorithms can be configured interactively via the user interface by the end user of the model on the basis of a number of parameters In fact an indicator consists of a generic algorithm determining the type of indicator and its set of parameter values determining the interpretation of the indicator Within a model a single algorithm can be employed with different parameter values as often as desired e Ina model run the user can switch an indicator on or off All indicators that are switched on are updated after every time step They are presented in a dialogue window and an associated map window that the user can open and close during the run Like for all other maps in the model statistical information relative to the information displayed on the map is available by clicking the mouse in the map see the User Manual Indicator maps can be exported in IDRISI format In addition to the map for every indicator a synthetic value is calculated over all cells of the map a sum weighted sum or average of all cells depending on the algorithm This value is 62 repre
114. pen project file dialog window opens Vv Close this window and go to File Create server project to open the window Create a new project Create a new project Project definition RUR region Belgium Antwerp Arr Bastogne Arr Brugge Arr Diksmuide Arr Dinant Destination folder C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Light m gt In this window you can select your region of choice by selecting the name of the region Regions within a country can be opened by clicking on the sign before the name of the country The running speed depends on the size of the region An indication about the speed and the area is provided for each RUR region gt In the Destination folder text box you can choose the location to store the application data and geoproject file for the selected RUR region The default path is C Documents and Settings user My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Light where represents the name of the selected RUR region Once you have selected a region and define the path press OK and a data transfer dialogue will show the data that is being downloaded Press OK once the data transfer is finished and you will find the application to your region of choice on your screen Transfering data Download done C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Lig Download done C Documents and Settings yshi My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Ligh Download
115. region Note that vacant land uses need not be allocated to a specific number of cells but will be allocated after the required number of cells has been allocated to all land use functions This procedure can be understood most easily by considering the land use functions as agents that need to occupy a certain number of cells in each region such that the accumulated transition potential in those cells is maximal and considering the cells in each region as agents that want to be occupied by a land use that has the highest transition potential in that cell In this light the allocation procedure yields an equilibrium outcome in which no land use can find a cell that it can occupy meaning the currently allocated land use has a lower transition potential value in that cell while vacating another cell and thereby increase its accumulated transition potential At the same time no cell can find a land use that is willing to vacate another cell and occupy this cell thus increasing its accumulated transition potential thereby increasing the transition potential in this cell The equilibrium state is found by an iterative procedure in which the land use function that has the highest transition potential in an unallocated cell in the region is allocated to that cell as long as more cells need to be allocated to that land use Thereafter the vacant land use with the highest transition potential is allocated to each unallocated cell It i
116. res exerted on the land and thus 44 constitute important information for those responsible for the design of sound spatial planning policies 3 Accessibility 2 Zoning 4 Land use amp CA rules Pr 2 Cg Time Loop Transition Land use potential For land use function transitions take place based on a changing spatial demand from the different functions as well as internal dynamics in the region The vacant land uses have a simplified dynamic calculation For this function there is no neighbourhood potential calculated nor is zoning or accessibility taken into account This causes that its dynamic is only based on the physical characteristics of the cell the suitability As stated above features do not have their own dynamics However features do influence the allocation of land use functions in the model because they are can be an attraction or repulsion for certain land use functions and are as such included in the Neighbourhood potential Note Both suitability and zoning maps can be constructed with the OVERLAY TOOL part of the GEONAMICA toolbox or with another GIS tool If you like more information about the OVERLAY TOOL please contact RIKS Assumptions e model is developed on the assumption that all actors land use functions are in competition for space with o
117. rticular location Moreover the neighbourhood effect is given a stochastic perturbation to simulate the effect of unpredictable occurrences The extent of this perturbation can be controlled with the a parameter The values for suitability and zoning are weighed and summed to give the combined effect of physical and institutional suitability on the land use This is then multiplied with the accessibility to provide a measurement of the heterogeneity of the modelled area If the value of the neighbourhood effect is positive we multiply it with this measure to yield the transition potential If it is negative we subtract this measure from its maximum value and multiply the result of that with the neighbourhood effect to yield the transition potential since the transition potential should decrease with a decrease in the measure of heterogeneity Algorithm The transition potential for land use function f in cell c CPs is calculated using the following equations 1 if a gt 0 t Ry else Ta Sa a if V 20 t fc fic fsc 1 Pe Kal Sper Ze Are else The transition potential is a multiplication of the neighbourhood potential Che the suitability 5 the zoning Ze and the accessibility Ars If a stochastic perturbation is included two extra factors have to be taken into account a random value drawn from a Weibull 1 distribution e and a parameter that controls the extent of the random effect
118. rvals as follows 25 gt Click the Generate button The Generate moments dialog window opens gt Enter the interval start time the interval end time and the interval step length in the Generate moments dialog window gt Press OK The moments are generated and displayed on the Writing moments list immediately Generate moments Simulation start time Simulation end time Current simulation time 2001 Jan 01 Interval start time 2000 Jan 01 Interval end time 2050 01 Interval step length years v Ca Writing moments 2000 Jan 01 00 00 00 2001 Jan 01 00 00 00 2005 Jan 01 00 00 00 2010 Jan 01 00 00 00 2020 Jan 01 00 00 00 2030 Jan 01 00 00 00 2040 Jan 01 00 00 00 2050 Jan 01 00 00 00 You can easily delete one or several writing moments by selecting the moments that you want to remove and clicking the Delete button If you are not satisfied with the moments that you just created you can undo the configuration by clicking the Reset button This action will reset all writing moments to the value they had when you last opened the Write to Excel settings window Starting writing To finalise the link between MOLAND LIGHT and Excel workbook you can click the Start writing button on the right low pane of the Write to Excel settings window The Write to Excel settings window closes automatically A link between MOLAND LIGHT and Excel workbook is established after this action although you cannot see this d
119. s easy to verify that this procedure yields an outcome that satisfies the conditions of the equilibrium state Moreover if we assume that all transition potential values are unique the equilibrium state is unique as well 60 Algorithm for each region allocate the current land use to all cells occupied by a land use feature while some cells have to be allocated to some land use function select the land use function for which we still need to allocate more cells that has the highest total potential value in an unallocated cell allocate the land use to that cell end while while not all cells have been allocated a land use select the vacant land use with the highest potential in an unallocated cell allocate the land use to that cell end while end for Parameters input and output Table 3 20 Land use parameters Name Description LU ini The land use map at the start of the simulation Table 3 21 Land use input Name Description Pre The transition potential for each land use and each cell c Nii The number of cells that need to be allocated to each land use function fin each region i Table 3 22 Land use output Name Description Ko The land use that currently occupies each cell in the map at time t 3 2 MBB Spatial indicators 3 2 1 Description MBB Spatial indicators Objective The MOLAND LIGHTsystem develops comparable databases to derive indicators in order to
120. s represents distances ranging from 0 4 km to 8 km for grid resolutions ranging from 50 m to 1000 m respectively This distance delimits an area that is similar to what residents and entrepreneurs commonly perceive to be their neighbourhood It should thus be sufficient to allow local scale spatial processes to be captured by the CA transition rules The cell states The cell states represent typically the dominant land use in each cell A distinction is made between dynamic elements called land use functions and static elements called land use features Land use features will not change as the result of local scale dynamics They do not change location but influence the dynamics of the land use functions and thus affect the general allocation process For example a land use function Beach tourism will be strongly influenced by the presence or absence of the land use feature Beach Clearly raising the number of states in the CA will increase in theory at the least the number of possible state transitions of each cell and defining the transition rules of the model will become more cumbersome Again it requires special attention on behalf of the model developer to keep this complexity within limits It is useful to distinguish between land uses if and only if these land uses behave differently in space If however their spatial dynamic is very similar then land uses can just as well be combined into a single land use funct
121. s when you press the Generate button of the Pause settings window You can enter the interval start time the interval end time and the interval step length in the Generate pauses dialog window and press OK button The pauses are generated and displayed on the pauses list of the Pause Settings dialog window 23 Generate pauses 2050 Jan 01 Remove You can remove a pause by selecting the one that you want to remove and clicking the Remove button on the right hand side of the Pause settings window 2 3 5 Saving results Write to Excel You can select the Write to Excel from the Options menu to establish or interrupt a link between MOLAND LIGHT and a Microsoft Excel workbook A new window appears as shown below MOLAND LIGHT is sending model output to the Excel Workbook while the simulation is advancing Write to Excel settings Writing moments 2000 Jan 01 00 00 00 Open Excel workbook The data transferred to the Excel workbook shows results for population cell counts for industry and commerce agriculture area and forest area Defining Excel sheet name The list of predefined output options are displayed per model block from which they origin in the Model block name column on the top pane of the Write to Excel settings window The 24 system will only make links for the model blocks which are configured in the column of Excel sheet n
122. same model and algorithms as the original MOLAND system and the Metronamica land use modelling framework These model descriptions can be found in chapter 3 Model description 4 1 Model specification All applications in MOLAND LIGHT use the same data set This data which is included in the system is the result of processing of the available base data For each input dataset the source data as well as the processing is discussed shortly in this section All raster maps are represented as a raster file with a resolution of 250 meter 4 1 1 Regions maps The regions used in MOLAND LIGHT are the RUR regions as defined in the PLUREL project RUR regions include one or more NUTS 3 regions Therefore the RUR regions map was created from a NUTS 3 regions map The dataset for RUR regions was provided by one of the PLUREL partners Loibl W et al 2008 4 1 2 Land use maps Land use was taken from the Corine Land Cover CLC Database from the EEA Copyright holder European Environment Agency Official access point to this data http epp eurostat ec europa eu portal page portal gisco geodata reference For calibration and validation the applications started from the land use in 1990 CLC1990 and results were compared to the 2000 land use in CLC2000 The applications in MOLAND LIGHT start from CLC2000 Because CLC includes too many classes for the purpose of a simple modelling tool the original land use was reclassified first according to
123. scription Metric The measure of spatial patterns to use 71 3 3 MBB Regional interaction 3 3 1 Description MBB Regional interaction Objective This model divides the total population jobs in main economic sectors for the whole study area over the regions based on their relative attractiveness User information Table 3 30 User information in the Regional interaction model Drivers and Links to from other MBB Impacts External Social economic trend number of jobs in main economic sectors per region influences population per region MBB Land Use information on physical suitability available space accessibility and spatial configuration Policy options Options of restricting the level of activity Other user options Weighing factors for the calculation of the attractivity and the productivity Policy indicators Number of people and population density per region Number of jobs and their density in main economic sector per region General information Table 3 31 General information in the Regional interaction model Type of information Description Type of model Spatial interaction model gravity model Application Regions inside of the modelling area Spatial resolution Depending on the application case Temporal resolution Year Process description The regional model applied here models the levels of activity in different socio economic sectors that in tur
124. sented as an index value in a time chart that is also accessible via the dialogue window e Finally the indicator maps can be written to a log file or animated GIF file The log files can be opened by means of the MAP COMPARISON KIT enabling the analysis of changes in the indicator maps generated within a single run or in different runs of the model The animations are automatically stored on the hard disk and available after the simulation as animated GIF files that can be opened and viewed with any graphical viewer or internet browser program The MOLAND LIGHT system includes the pre defined spatial indicators From the above it will be clear that the user can also define a set of new indicators based on the algorithms currently available in the models or he can extend or modify a list of existing indicators This is possible in the full MOLAND system by means of the Spatial indicators dialogue window see the section MBB Spatial indicators Assumptions Some indicator algorithms use a search radius or target cluster radius defined in terms of a number of cells This means that the indicator will work within a neighbourhood of the cell being analysed that has a radius equal to the value of this parameter The neighbourhood is defined analogous to that of the neighbourhood effect in the land use model Hence the resulting area is circular only by approximation as depicted in figure 3 6 Figure 3 6 Areas belonging to search radii of 0
125. st gt Go to the driver of your interest on the left side of the Main window gt On the right side of the Main window move the mouse pointer to the abscissa position for which you want to enter a new ordinate value gt Right click and select Add data point from the context menu o add a point to the graph The Enter new data point values dialog window opens gt Select the year for which you want to add a point from the dropdown list next to X and a new value in the text box next to Y gt Press the OK button in the Enter new data point values dialog window Enter new data point values As a result a little circle will be drawn and line segments will connect the new point to the nearest points left and right in the graph created thus far There are two ways to reposition a point in the graph display area 18 gt Left click the point in the graph display area Hold the mouse button down while dragging it to its new position Then release the button gt Move the mouse pointer to the point that you want to reposition and right click gt Select the Edit from the context menu The Edit data point dialog window opens where you can select the abscissa x and enter ordinate y values Ei Main window Population people Edit data point X 2019 Y people 57458 Forest area You can remove a point again from the graph as follows gt Right click the point o
126. stinct suitability maps have been developed for agriculture forest and urban land use Suitability maps for the urban categories Residential and Industry and commerce are the same as both are urban functions with comparable interest in physical characteristics of an area 4 1 4 Zoning maps Zoning maps are created for Residential and for Industry and commerce land uses only The only zoning restrictions that were incorporated are locations that are defined as Natura 2000 areas On those locations no urban development is allowed However these maps were corrected for locations that already have an urban land use to prevent removal thereof during the simulation which is unlikely The Natura 2000 data is coming from EEA Copyright holder European Environment Agency The official access point to data http epp eurostat ec europa eu portal page portal gisco geodata reference 4 1 5 Transport networks Two networks are included a road network and a rail network As can be seen from the parameterization in the next section it is not the actual rail network but the location of the rail stations that influence the allocation of land uses The transport network data are part of the EuroGlobalMap EuroGeographics EuroGlobalMap http www eurogeographics org products and services euroglobalmap for with JRC has a license 4 1 6 Land use demands Land use demands are included for Industrial and commercial land Agriculture and
127. t Step 1 Start Microsoft Windows XP or Vista gt Step 2 Double click on the MOLAND Light H setup exe file The refers to the version number of the software installation gt Step 3 The wizard is started Press the Next button gt Step 4 The wizard asks you to choose the components of MOLAND LIGHT you want to install Select the MOLAND Light option and Data option and press the Next button gt Step 5 The wizard asks you to choose the install location for the program destination folder The default path for installing the MOLAND Light programme is C Program Files Geonamica MOLAND Light If you want to install MOLAND Light in a different directory press the Browse button and navigate to the desire location Press the Next button Otherwise to cancel the installation process press the Cancel button gt Step 6 The wizard asks you to choose the install location for the Data destination folder The default path is C Documents and Settings User My Documents Geonamica MOLAND Light If you want to install the Data in a different directory press the Browse button and navigate to the desire location Press the Next button gt Step 7 The wizard suggests adding MOLAND LIGHT to the new program group Geonamica You are free to create another group or to choose an existing one from the list shown gt Step 8 Press the Install button The wizard now installs all the files and data needed to run MOLAND LIGHT into the direct
128. tant growth of density hl Exponent activity growth Exponent crowding 4 4 2 Stochastic perturbation Land use is allocated according to the total potential of all locations for each land use For this the same algorithm is used as in the full MOLAND system The stochastic perturbation term in this algorithm is set to 0 5 4 4 3 Neighbourhood rules The neighbourhood rules describe the attraction or repulsion from one land use on the other as a function of the distance The table below only describes those land use interactions that are unequal to zero and therefore contribute to the land use allocation Distances are expressed in meters and values are interpolated linearly in between Influence of on 0 250 500 750 1000 2000 Natural vegetation Residential 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Natural vegetation Industry and commerce 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Natural vegetation Agriculture 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Natural vegetation Forest 1 0 0 0 0 0 Residential Residential 250 5 0 25 0 0 0 Residential Industry and commerce 0 0 0 1 0 0 Industry and commerce Residential 0 0 0 1 0 0 Industry and commerce Industry and commerce 250 5 0 0 0 0 Agriculture Residential 8 0 0 0 0 0 Agriculture Industry and commerce 8 0 0 0 0 0 Agriculture Agriculture 9 0 5 0 0 0 0 Agriculture Forest 1 0 0 0 0 0 Forest Residential 1 0 0 0 0 0 Forest Industry and commerce 1 0 0 0 0 0 Forest Forest 25 1 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 Accessibility The
129. ted suitability map gt threshold mask 1 end if else if the value of cell c in the mask map gt 0 mask 1 end if end if if mask 1 the value in cell c is set to the value in the table for the land use in cell c of the base map from and the current land use in cell c to end if end for Parameters input and output Table 1 4 Land use change indicator input Description The land use map for the base year Initial land use map MBB Land Use Table 1 5 Land use change indicator parameters Name Description Metric The measure of spatial patterns to use Land use change The value that will be displayed in the result map if the cell has land use from classification in the base map and to in the current land use map A value of 1 will result in a data value 3 2 8 Spatial metric indicator Purpose and use This indicator can be used to derive a number of measures of spatial patterns from the land use map Process description The indicator uses the algorithms of the Moving Window Based Structure in the MAP COMPARISON KIT The result map is the metric map produced by this method with the land use map as input See the MAP COMPARISON KIT user manual for a more detailed description of the measures of spatial patterns Algorithm See the MAP COMPARISON KIT user manual for a description of the measures of spatial patterns Parameters input and output Name De
130. ter Water courses Water bodies Feature Marine water Coastal lagoons Estuaries Sea and ocean Feature Unclassified water bodies No data No data Unclassified land surface Feature MOLAND LIGHT characterizes each land use as vacant function or feature See chapter 3 Model description for a further explanation Construction is reclassified into either residential or industrial and commercial land depending on which of the two appears most in the direct surroundings 4 1 3 Suitability maps Suitability maps are created for all function land uses There is no suitability map for the vacant land use class because there is only one vacant class and therefore no need to distinguish between the aptness of various locations for this class The suitability maps used in MOLAND LIGHT are the result of a two step process First base maps are interpreted in terms of their suitability 0 10 and then these interpreted maps are combined in one overlay by means of a minimum function hence the factor which poses the strongest limitation is selected The base maps that were used to create suitability maps are agricultural limitation elevation and slope These data were provided by JRC The dataset for slope and elevation are part of version 4 of SRTM data Jarvis A et al 2008 The agricultural limitation data is from the European Soil Database European Soil Database http eusoils jrc ec europa eu esdb_archive ESDB Index htm Di
131. the temporal evolution of an integrated scenario or to compare a set of integrated scenarios In step 2 of the assessment you have selected what type of information you want to save for analysis In this step you carry out the analysis thereof The Excel files that have been created can be analysed with Excel the animations can be shown in a viewer and the logged maps that have been saved in log files that can be opened in the MAP COMPARISON KIT which can be opened when going to the Analysis tab of the Main Window 2 3 2 Setting the drivers In MOLAND LIGHT input is given in graphs The following sub sections describe how to edit input The graph editor is used in MOLAND LIGHT to define the demands for population and land use industry and commerce agriculture and forest in the driver section At the left side of the graph editor window is the graph display area To the right is the x y value pairs list showing you the x y value of the graph Graphs in MOLAND LIGHT can be edited in the Graph display area part which is indicated with the white background We apply a linear interpolation between different points This means that when you add or change the value of one point MOLAND LIGHT will automatically interpolate between this point and its neighbour points Context menu Ei Main window Copy as image Copy as text Options 8 8 5 5 5 a 5 a mate a Graph display area X Y value pairs li
132. tion Unit t The activity in sector k and region i at time t Number of i people or jobs 3 3 3 National growth Purpose and use This model block determines the part of the national activity growth which will end up in a region The determination of the size of a part is solely based on the ongoing migrations Process description The absolute national growth in a sector can be calculated by taking the difference of the current level of activity and the lagged level of activity In order to determine the part of the national growth that will end up in one region the migrations are taken into account Here the relative size of the immigration over emigration ratio matters This is intuitive A region with many immigrants and few emigrants experiences a growth of activity accompanied by a great share of the national growth 75 Algorithm An intermediate variable is the immigration emigration ratio which is specific to each sector k and region i at time t It is determined by the following formula t Mij t MR lt Mos j The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows t 1 1 Psk t Pox Xe MR 1 1 koi ee MR k k j Parameters input and output Table 3 38 Parameters used in the national growth model block Name Description Unit 5 Influence of the activity on the fractio
133. tion potential in sector k and region i at time t koi se Job potential in sector k and region i at time t ty Activity potential in sector k and region i at time t ki y The productivity of sector in region i at time previous time Number of people step unit people or jobs cell or jobs 1 The average neighbourhood effect of sector k in region i at time t The average suitability of sector k in region at time t The average zoning of sector k in region at time t tly The average accessibility of sector k in region i at time t Table 3 46 Output variables given by the attractivity model block Name Description Unit The attractivity of region on sector k at time t The population potential model block Purpose and use This model block determines the population potential per region per sector Process description The population potential per region and sector is a function of the sums of population activities i e the number of people in all regions and the distances between the regions Algorithm The function which determines the value of the output variable looks as follows while Here K VP gt 5 de J XP gt E keKp is the set of all population sectors 78 Parameters input and output Table 3 47 Parameters used in the population potential model block Name Description Unit The distance decay
134. turnUrl 2fFile Library 11 aspx Van Vliet J A K Bregt and Hagen Zanker A Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land use change models Submitted to Ecological Modelling Witmakersstraat 10 6211 JB Maastricht Tel 31 43 3501750 Fax 31 43 3501751 info riks nl
135. ty for the general public You can download MOLAND LIGHT select the RUR region of interest and then run simulations until 2030 Results of each simulation are presented as a series of annual land use maps and several environmental and socio economic indicators Drivers include time lines for industry and commerce area agricultural and forested area and population MOLAND LIGHT does not contain the full model and associated data Instead this is hosted on a central server that the system communicates with to run simulations This reduces the requirements to run a model locally Moreover data protected by IP rights can be used to run simulations at no charge In order to construct the generic parameter setting for the land use model that would yield realistic results for each RUR region MOLAND LIGHT was calibrated for selected case study areas representing both urbanized and more rural areas and independently validated for other areas over the same simulation period The MOLAND LIGHT documentation contains four chapters Chapter 1 Introduction explains the background of the project and the structure of the MOLAND LIGHT documentation Chapter 2 User Manual describes how to use the software of MOLAND LIGHT Chapter 3 Model description gives the detailed description for each model used in the system Chapter 4 Data preparation and calibration describes data used for the application of MOLAND LIGHT and the calibration procedure and calibrat
136. u This action resets all the parameters and maps to their initial value The changes that you made to the parameters and maps which include the changes to the initial values and initial maps are affected by resetting the simulation because all of them are recalculated for the start year Whenever you change the initial values or initial maps for the start year you need to reset to perform the changes Update To update the models of the system to the changes that you made in the user interface for the current simulation year hence except for the changes to the initial values or initial maps you can use the Update command on the Simulation menu The action of updating will not take into account the changes that you made to initial values or initial maps To that effect you can use Reset or click the Step or Run button on the toolbar After the model has been 21 updated the variables that are affected by changes are recalculated and the updated output will be displayed via the user interface You can use the Update command to have the model perform the changes that you made without advancing the simulation clock This is especially useful to test the immediate effects of a newly entered set of parameter s before running the simulation Step To verify that the program is ready to run you can use the Step command on the Simulation menu or press the Step button on the toolbar Once pressed MOLAND LIGHT goes through a number of ess
137. uence functions were defined with a point on each of these lines In the four point spline there are still values for each concentric circle but they are linearly interpolated instead of user defined 50 Options Grid X valueticks Spline Linear Figure 3 3 An example of an influence function The transition rules The goal of the CA model is to allocate a cell state to each cell on the map in order to simulate the dynamic behaviour of land use functions The allocation is performed on the basis of a to be specified algorithm that works on a vector of values one value for each cell state for each cell known as the transition potentials These transition potentials are determined on the basis of the neighbourhood effect but can take other factors into consideration as well such as the physical or institutional suitability of the location the availability of transport connections or even a stochastic factor to take into consideration the possible effects of unpredictable occurrences Together these transition potentials and the allocation algorithm make up the transition rules of the CA model In the simplest of cases the transition potential can be taken as the neighbourhood effect and the allocation algorithm allocates the cell state with the highest potential to each cell that is occupied by a land use function as in
138. ve as new scenario from the dropdown list next to Land use demand scenario gt Click the Details button to open the Scenario details dialog window gt Enter a new descriptive name and a short description text in the Scenario details dialog window gt Press the Save the button at the bottom of Save project dialog window to finalize saving the project file as Arr Arlon alternative geoproj You will see the Arr_Arlon alternative displaying on the top left of the Geonamica window 2 3 4 Running a scenario Once the Main window and the Land use map window have been opened the program has read the default values for all the parameters as well as the initial values for all the state variables of models The program is ready to run a scenario You can run a scenario with the control buttons on the toolbar or with the commands on the Simulation menu 20 Update Step Run Reset Pauses 9 ebm ECE Active integrated scenario Simulation On the toolbar as depicted in the figure above the left most box displays the active integrated scenario The right most box displays the Simulation clock which indicates the progress of the simulation the year until which the simulation has run It is essential for the MOLAND LIGHT application to communicate with the JRC server when you run a scenario on your local computer Therefore it is important to make sure that your computer is connecting to the internet Otherw
139. y taking paths from one cell to another that is horizontally vertically or diagonally adjacent This approximation overestimates the actual distance by less than 10 We calculate for each source cell the smallest distance to a cell that is in the centre of a cluster of target cells A cell is a source cell if it is occupied by a land use marked as source Idem for target cells The centre cells of a cluster are those cells for which all cells in the neighbourhood are target cells Cells that contain a link type that is indicated to be an obstacle are not target cells even if the land use that occupies the cell is marked as a target 67 Algorithm let v c denote the value of cell c set all cell values to no data for each cell c that is occupied by a land use indicated as target and does not contain a link type that is an obstacle if all cells in the neighbourhood of cell c are occupied by a land use indicated as target and do not contain a link type that is an obstacle v c 0 end if end for put all cells with value 0 in list while L remove the first cell c from list L for each cell d that is horizontally or vertically adjacent to cell c if v c cellsize lt v d v d v c cellsize add d to the end of list L end if end for for each cell d that is diagonally adjacent to cell c if v c V2 cellsize lt v d v d v c 2 cellsize add d to the end of list L end if end for end while
140. ys to navigate through menus it describes actions of menu commands e When you press the buttons on the toolbar it describes actions of this button e When you move the mouse on a raster map it describes the location of the cell that is pointed and the category or value on this cell is displayed in brackets e When you move the mouse on a network map it describes the x and y coordinators of the location The Status Bar also indicates which of the following keys are latched down the Caps Lock key CAP the Num Lock key NUM or the Scroll Lock key SCRL 2 1 7 System information The different commands in the Help menu allow you to look up the system information about MOLAND LIGHT its commands options and tools You can use the Help menu to select the type of information that you want MOLAND LIGHT to display on the screen For more information see the section Help menu Index You can use the Index command to get the opening screen of the on line help file of MOLAND LIGHT From the opening screen you can jump to step by step instructions for using MOLAND LIGHT Double click the topic that you want help on Once you open the Index window you can click the Close button whenever you want to return to the opening screen Licence You can use the Licence command to get the licence information in the Licence window The system allows you to import the licence file by pressing the link of Read a licence file to open the Open
141. ystem and or displayed as results and indicators in the user interface Internal variables are only used internally in the respective MBB 3 1 MBB Land Use 3 1 1 Description MBB Land use Objective The land use model allocates the changes in demand for land use on the land use map User information Table 3 1 User information in the Land use model Drivers and Impacts Links to from other MBB External influences Total demand for land use functions Policy options Other user options Policy indicators Land use map Environmental indicators Socio economic indicators Impacts MBB Spatial indicators land use map General information Table 3 2 General information in the Land use model 43 Type of information Description Type of model Constrained cellular automata simulation Application All cells Spatial resolution Depending on the application case from 50 to 1000 meter Temporal resolution Year Process description In MOLAND LIGHT applications the whole modelling area is represented as a mosaic of grid cells each occupied with a specific land use All cells together constitute the land use pattern of the study area In principle it is the relative attractiveness of a cell as viewed by a particular spatial agent as well as the local constraints and opportunities that cause cells to change from one type of land use to another Changes in land use

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