Copia de Comunicación P. Jiménez - Repositorio Institucional de la
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1. Surface WaterModelUncertainty pdf2. Civil 115 79 96 Carreras A 1996 Investigaci n y explotaci n del acu fero de la Sierra de las Cabras S Jos del Valle C diz Jornadas sobre Recursos H dricos en Regiones K rsticas Vitoria Espa a 9 21 Chauve P 1960 62 Structure G ologique de la R gion Centrale de la Province de Cadix Espagne Memories hors de serie de la Societe Geologique de France 1 257 264 Delannoy J J 1998 Contribuci n al conocimiento de los macizos k rsticos de las Serran as de Grazale ma y de Ronda En J J Dur n y J L Mart nez Eds El Karst en Andaluc a Instituto Tecnol gico Geominero de Espa a Madrid Espa a 93 129 Estrela T and Quintas L 1996 El sistema integrado de modelizaci n precipitaci n aportaci n SIMPA Ingenier a Civil 104 43 52 IGME 2013 Mapa de permeabilidades de Espa a a escala 1 200 000 ITGE 1990 Mapa geol gico de Espa a 1 50 000 Hoja 1063 Algar Madrid Espa a IPCC 2013 Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Stocker T F D Qin G K Plattner M Tignor S K Allen J Boschung A Nauels Y Xia V Bex and P M Midgley eds Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA Jim nez P Andreo B Dur n J J Carrasco F L pez Geta J A Vadillo I and V zquez M 2001 Estudio hidrodin mico del manantial de El Te
3. by the efficiency coefficient of models of Nash Sutcliffe Nash and Sutcliffe 1970 Monthly hm 4 000 3 0009 2 000 1 009 0 000 ifr lir at allied ID ATA an 93 apr 93 N age Ez 6 HA Observed Tempu hm3 Sacramento hm3 Figure 3 Water resources drained and simulated by El Tempul spring According to the value obtained from the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient 0 87 for the calibration period the monthly series have a very good goodness of fit Table 3 Table 3 Criteria for evaluating the goodness of fit of Nash Sutcliffe Van Dijk et al 2008 Very good Very poor 0 8 0 95 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 5 In Figure 4 the average monthly water resources obtained by Sacramento model has been represented for RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 scenarios and for the reference period In Table 4 varia tions are shown both in absolute terms and as a percentage for the different simulated scenari os The water resources in the aquifer of the Sierra de las Cabras simulated by the Sacramento model show a larger decline than would be expected only by the variation of precipitation in different scenarios and with respect to the reference period e g RCP4 5 for 2081 2100 a de crease of 10 in precipitation Table 1 generates a decrease at approximately 25 in water re sources simulated by El Tempul spring Table 4 This is because the real evapotranspiration is higher due to the increase in potential eva
4. 9 os 242 20 27 oe eee 4 0 97 0 91 0 73 0 72 0 93 0 69 0 51 6 10 24 46 25 93 3 93 29 00 46 91 oz 73 0 6 osal 54 osa 52 0 69 osol 50 037 37 9 22 82 26 6 46 2842 42 5 536 3216 16 49 35 35 RE nee eee eee 0 39 0 35 0 29 0 28 0 37 0 27 0 21 10 95 25 98 27 85 6 04 31 20 47 07 0 30 0 27 0 22 0 22 0 28 0 21 0 16 10 14 24 42 26 20 5 70 29 25 44 48 ee ee ee ee 25 32 aso 28 08 45 61 4 CONCLUSIONS This preliminary research concludes that Sacramento model is quite representative of the sys tem real conditions for carbonate aquifers Thus the obtained results might be influenced by the higher number of parameters used for Sacramento model The high inertness that this aqui fer has cannot mitigate the effects of climate change on monthly values of water resources The increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation Table 1 generate a high impact with de creases of the resource much higher than foreseeable if only it has taken into account the de crease in rainfall In this regard the continuation of the work described in this research has been proposed on other systems The estimated parameters used in this research by Sacramento model can be considered use ful for systems that present a similar hydrogeological behavior and without available data series of hydrometric to perform a calibration thereof The hydrological response of the system under the conditions of climate change is
5. EA Being able to determine the potential impacts that climate change may have on water resources 1s a complicated task due to the limited data available for the calibration of the models and the high exploitation rate of the aquifers in the study area which makes the modeling almost im possible under conditions of functioning of the system in natural regime The Sierra de las Cabras aquifer is located in the central part of the province of Cadiz Figure 1A This includes from West to East the sierras of del Valle Dos Hermanas de la Sal de las Cabras and Loma del Tempul All these reliefs constitute a mountain range of 42 km whose planform is a crescent with concavity open towards the Southwest Sierra de las Cabras is crossed by two streams Bogaz and Bujalance Figure 1B The materials of Sierra de las Cabras belong to the unit of the same name within the Medi um Subbetic domain of the External Zone of the Betic Cordillera Chauve 1960 1962 Martin Algarra 1987 ITGE 1990 The stratigraphic series Figure 1C consists of three main lithologic units from wall to ceiling Triassic in German Andalusian facies Keuper Jurassic of calcareous dolomitic nature with 300 meters thickness and Cretaceous Tertiary of marly na ture Jim nez 2011 The outcrops of Jurassic limestones and dolomites with an area of approximately 34 km constitute an aquifer The aquifer recharge occurs by direct infiltration from rainfall on car bonate
6. Modelling of last hypothesis of climate change impacts on water resources in Sierra de las Cabras aquifer Southern Spain P Jim nez Fern ndez amp P Jim nez Gavil n Department of Geology Faculty of Science University of Malaga Malaga Spain Centre of Hydrogeology of the University of Malaga CEHIUMA University of Malaga Malaga Spain ABSTRACT Having models that reflect the reality of a system operation becomes critical to the effective management of water resources in a watershed especially considering the differ ent scenes of climate change predicted for the Mediterranean regions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC ARS estimates an in crease in average temperatures and a precipitation decrease between 10 and 20 for Mediterra nean region which could generate drought events in the study area The present research tries to determinate the potential impacts that climate change may have on water resources The Sacra mento model has been used to model the water resources of an inertial aquifer Sierra de las Cabras In turn IPCC forecasts of climate change for the study area Mediterranean region have been simulated taking into account the degree assessing of affection to the water resources opposite to eventual episodes of drought and the social and environmental implications that will result have been also determined 1 INTRODUCTION AND MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STUDY AR
7. affected by many sources of uncertainties arising from the selected models It is also affected by future changes in land use that may occur in the area The results obtained in this research must be considered preliminary until a regionalization of data from global circulation models is done However the results are similar to the predic tions for the Mediterranean region that are included in the AR5 which has just been published recently October 2014 Finally the use of Sacramento model is recommended in hydrological planning whenever a high prior knowledge of the hydrological and hydrogeological behaviour of the study area 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work is a contribution to the project Water Accounting in a Multi Catchment District WAMCD 8 06 UE 44 7066 of European Commission and the Research Group RNM 308 of the Andalusian Government 6 REFERENCES Andreo B Carrasco F Bakalowicz M Mudry J and Vadillo I 2002 Use of hydrodynamic and hy drochemistry to characterise carbonate aquifers Case study of the Blanca Mijas unit M laga southern Spain Environmental Geology 43 1 2 108 119 Burnash R J Ferral R L and McGuire R A 1973 A Generalized Streamflow Simulation System Conceptual Modeling for Digital Computers Joint Federal State River Forecast Center Sacramento CA 204 p Cabezas F Estrada F and Estrela T 1999 Algunas contribuciones t cnicas del Libro Blanco del Agua en Espa a Ingenieria
8. ility 120 000 80 000 Zperc 6 000 10 000 Lzpk 0 004 0 006 Uzfw m 210 000 230 000 Rexp 0 500 0 800 Pfree 0 200 0 300 Uzk 0 060 0 080 Lztwm 75 000 65 000 Side 0 150 0 150 i 300 000 0 150 300 000 0 278 1 800 2 4 Climate change The forecasts made in the RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 scenarios have been simulated for time intervals 2016 2035 2046 2065 and 2081 2100 Figure 2 The data series have been built with refer ence to SIMPA data for the period 1986 2005 A regionalization of data series from general circulation model used in the ARS has not been possible because it has been published recently October 2014 and they are not available yet Data series for the different scenarios based on the forecasts for Mediterranean region have been generated using simulated data by Sacramento model for reference period 1986 2005 However this study is intended as a preliminary approximation to a future regionalization of data Temperature change RCP4 5 in 2046 2065 March May Precipitation change RCP4 5 in 2046 2065 annual f YY a ES ERR ce 2 15 1 0 5 005 11452 3 4 5 7 9 11 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Figure 2 Map of change in temperature and precipitation for the RCP4 5 scenario IPCC 2013 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The comparison of observed data regarding estimated data by Sacramento model for the period 1986 1995 Figure 3 has been conducted
9. modified from Mart n Algarra 1987 The assessment of water resources is essential for a proper planning and management There are basically two methods to assess the water resources restitution to the natural regime and rainfall runoff modeling Both methodologies are often complementary and necessary The first objective of the present research is the modeling of the monthly water resources of Sierra de las Cabras aquifer by Sacramento model Burnash et al 1973 with EvalHid tool Paredes Arquiola et al 2012 developed by the Water Resources Engineering Area of HAMA UPV The second goal is to simulate the IPCC projections of climate change for the study area Mediterranean region which are covered in the fifth Assessment Report AR5 IPCC 2013 Four new emission scenarios have been defined They are called Representative Concentration Pathways RCP They are identified by their total radiative forcing RF in 2100 ranging from 2 6 to 8 5 Wm and can contain the effects of policies to limit climate change in the twenty first century The forecasts made in the RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 scenarios have been simulated for three time intervals IPCC 2013 2016 2035 2046 2065 and 2081 2100 2 METHODOLOGY 2 1 Bibliographic compilation A detailed analysis of all the information on the application of methodologies for characterizing the hydrodynamic functioning of aquifers has been carried out but particularly in relation to the Betics aquife
10. mpul Sierra de las Cabras C diz Sur de Espa a Bo let n Geol gico y Minero Vol 112 2 85 102 Jim nez P 2011 Los acu feros carbon ticos del Sur de Espa a Caracterizaci n y clasificaci n a partir de sus respuestas naturales Acad mica Espafiola Lap Lambert Academic Publising GmbH amp Co 384 p Mart n Algarra A 1987 Evoluci n geol gica Alpina del contacto entre las Zonas Internas y las Zonas Externas de la Cordillera B tica Sector Occidental Tesis Doctoral Universidad de Granada Espa a 1171 p ginas Nash J E and Sutcliffe J V 1970 River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I A discus sion of principles J Hydrol 10 282 290 Paredes Arquiola J Solera Solera A Andreu lvarez J and Lerma Elvira N 2012 Manual t cnico de la herramienta EVALHID para la evaluaci n de recursos h dricos Grupo de Ingenier a de Recursos H dricos Universitat Polit cnica de Val ncia Ruiz J M 1999 Modelo distribuido para la evaluaci n de recursos h dricos Monograf as CEDEX M67 Van Dijk A Kirby J Paydar Z Podger G Mainuddin M Marvanek S and Pe a Arancibia J 2008 Uncertainty in river modeling across the Murray Darling Basin A report to the Australian Gov ernment from the CSIRO Murray Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship http www clw csiro au publications waterforahealthycountry mdbsy technical O
11. outcrops and sometimes by infiltration of runoff from Bogaz stream and Bujalance stream The different materials in the study area have been grouped into two categories accord ing to their hydrological behavior carbonate medium permeability and carbonate high permea bility Figure 1B The discharge occurs in a natural way by the El Tempul spring at elevation 120 m a s l the flow varies between 20 L s and less than 2000 L s with an historical average value of 283 L s Jim nez et al 2001 In periods of exceptional recharge the trop plein of Fuente Imbro comes into operation Figure 1B at elevation 140 m a s l There is a preferentially groundwater flow directed towards the El Tempul spring Carreras 1996 So the hydrodynamic study of this point showed that this aquifer has a predominantly inertial hydrogeological behaviour which is indicative of a low degree of functional karstification and in this case of significant groundwa ter reserves Jim nez 2011 e 3 3 E E A Carbonate high permeability a Sj Carbonate medium permeability Pig f Surface Carbonate high permeability 13 5 km H Carbonate medium permeability 20 5 km Sierra de ll 700 m a s las Cabras Fuente Imbro Said y ee Boca de Foz Marl calcareous marl Limestone Limestone dolomite L Triassic 4 clays with evaporites Figure 1 A Location of Sierra de las Cabras B Sierra de las Cabras and C stratigraphic series modi fied
12. potranspiration values associated with the rise in tem perature This causes a change in the soil moisture conditions Part of the precipitation that would be part of this component is subtracted from it to supply the soil moisture deficit Average monthly hr 1 80 1 60 1 40 1 20 1 00 0 80 0 60 0 40 0 20 0 00 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Reference RCP4 5 1 RCPZ 5 2 RCP4 5 3 RCP8 5 1 RTP8 5 2 KCP8 5 3 Figure 4 Average monthly water resources drained and simulated by El Tempul spring This decrease of water resources will produce drought events that will compromise to long term the implementation of the qualitative and quantitative environmental objectives for surface water bodies and groundwater bodies that are downstream of the study area This would affect the availability of resources to the Bay of Cadiz and Jerez de la Frontera which is an area with a high demand for supply and also has significant seasonal variations higher demand in summer than in winter like other coastal areas Jim nez 2001 Table 4 Differences between scenarios Resource hm Percentage difference respect to the reference period ENEE 0 43 0 41 0 32 0 31 0 41 0 30 0 22 6 13 26 92 29 30 4 16 29 88 49 44 Bp eee eee 1 1 55 1 51 1 17 1 17 1 52 1 13 0 85 2 91 24 71 24 85 1 94 27 10 45 28 2 ial 1 38 an aal 139 10
13. rs Delannoy 1998 Andreo et al 2002 Jim nez et al 2001 Jim nez 2011 Moreover any information regarding the different climate change scenarios that are envisaged by the IPCC IPCC 2013 has been also analyzed Forecasts carried out by global circulation models 75 percentile have been considered for RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 scenarios in the study area Table 1 Table 1 Temperature and precipitation change for the three time intervals simulated IPCC 2013 Temperature change C Precipitation change 2 2 Hydrometeorological data compilation SIMPA model Cabezas et al 1999 Ruiz 1999 Estrela and Quintas 1996 provides information for the main components of the hydrological cycle in natural regime This information is con tained in raster layers covering the entire territory of Spain on a monthly basis between 1940 and 2012 A GIS tool has been developed for extracting information on precipitation tempera ture and potential evapotranspiration PET 2 3 Modelling and model calibration Data between 1986 1995 have been used to calibrate the model because this is the period that has daily flow data drained by El Tempul spring When the system has been calibrated the val ue of the parameters used by Sacramento model have been determined Table 2 Table 2 Parameters value Materials Po Materials Po Materials permeability permeability permeability permeability permeability permeab
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