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Avis 06-2013 du Comité scientifique de l`AFSCA

1. yes risk absence protection no no effect There is no genetic variability of the bacteria A genetic variability of the bacteria should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 2 yes There is a general lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis of the obligate intracellular bacteria A lack of knowledge of pathogenesis represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 3 No There is no known change in the pathogenesis of anaplasmosis A change in the pathogenesis should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 4 yes There are questions concerning the efficacy of vaccination due to the lack of knowledge on pathogenesis and to the fact that the bacteria grow intracellularly The difficulty to control the disease by vaccination represents a risk factor for emergence 5 Yes The bacteria are capable to infect numerous mammal species which can all re infect the ticks This represents a risk factor for emergence 6 Yes 0 The bacteria be transmitted to humans Because humans are accidental hosts dead end hosts not capable to retransmit the infection to the ticks this has no influence on the risk for emergence 7 Yes ypa There is a geographical extension of the pathogenic agent which is largely distributed in North of America in Europe and in Asia This is a risk factor for emergence 8 No There is no significant inc
2. 117 limentaires ees a les denr ises par transm leuses ies animales infecti des malad d mergence isque 3 Facteurs de ri nario Sc e yo oo SE _ subis uoneulooen Aq aseasip JUSLUUOJIAUp 9591 siseusBoued ul asepo 7HONEE Eos a sisauahoujed o JO wdd Aayod Aejues uonesi6e7 7777 7 luononpoid e 210 __ _ 4 ones W 110 119 uewny jewiue uaa BSBOIOUI uonesijedojg TT ue ul ponad Uodsuey aseasoul 01 05 110015 19045912905 ay 0 111415504 au Aq 2 jeuuiue ayy 5 aAIsua Xy pue 5 uaa joejuog pue Aude1Boup ul Jayjoue mau ay uonnquisip ul
3. 23 ypa There are extensive production systems concerning the susceptible animal populations This is a risk factor for emergence because it favours the aerogen transmission of the virus between herds 24 n There can be animals without clinical signs during the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK infected sheep did almost show no clinical no A symptoms Asymptomatic carriage is a risk factor for spread of this highly contagious disease no There is no animal reservoir rather in Africa An animal reservoir should be an important risk factor for emergence 26 no There is no specially long incubation period long incubation period would represent a risk factor for emergence due to the speed of the transmission The low incubation period is protective against emergence 27 There are possibilities of contacts between domestic ruminants and the wild fauna It is an important risk factor for transmission yes and of emergence case the wild fauna is infected cf in Africa 28 The wild fauna has currently no epidemiological role If the wild fauna cervids and other ruminants had an epidemiological role cf no cej in Africa it should represent a risk factor for emergence see transmission pathways 29 ae 0 There is an increase in the demography of wild cervids in Belgium Since the Belgian wild fauna does not play currently an
4. Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no There is no genetic variability A genetic avriability would represent a risk factor for emergence 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis This infection is few studied in cervids and not known in cattle This lack of yes knowledge in pathogenesis is risk factor for emergence of the disease 3 no There is no observed change in the pathogenesis A change in the pathogeneisis should be a risk factor for emergence 4 yes No vaccine available on the market Important risk factor for emergence There is no observed passage of the species barrier A passage of the species barrier would represent a risk factor for emergence 6 no 0 The disease is not zoonotic This has no influence on the risk for emergence 7 There have been 4 epidemics in the Mediterranean countries This is an important risk factor for emergence in Belgium via yes al A sue vectorial dispersion if the disease is present in a neighbouring region or via the importations 8 There have been 4 epidemics in the Mediterranean countries This is an important risk factor for emergence in Belgium via yes sue vectorial dispersion if the disease is present in a neighbouring region or via the importations 9 0 The virus can not persist in the environment
5. ui uoisue xy 01 51 20 wass uohonpoid ansta ET wisiino ul aseasoul 10005110400 saisads ay auela 03 AyIqissod e Byueweduwod ewe usa maq SUONOBJAjUI ur 2SP9IIUI ptu Ul aseapur 51 _ amp ul abueys gt yodsue ul eseaoul uoHesieqoys eseesip paonpoid 5 5 502 ay Ul 221012 NOU 181107 pue usa Jaq 2 jedibojoumapidy saljAnunds suelun 0 suite woy ysoy ay 411915504 eh JueuuodtAup eu Ut yuabe suonejndod uewiny pue wue ugemjeq suono aly swiue UI ponad eu Aq peuisouos jewiue ay Jo MOIS siseueboujed apa mouy yor u asesu s ss sd dijemsnpu Jo eBueYD Sled s au 119 miques r d ies animales infectieuses en des malad d mergence isque 5 Facteurs de ri nario Sc uejiupsjuone sifiey wass anlsuayuy oiidejHowep uen 4 i udnesijeqog uolesiueqf 95999010 JeLNSNPU 10 jedIHojouyos supiuny 0 spewue woy unyaads sou a
6. constitutes a risk factor for emergence of the disease in these other animal species 28 yes The wildlife has an epidemiological role since wild bats are the reservoir Wildlife is dificult to control This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 29 ne There is no growth of the bat species population which is the most concerned Eptesicus serotinus Since bats are the main host of the disease a grouwth would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 30 There are climatic and meteorological changes Bats can be migratory Changes in climate may change their natural territory Soft yes winters and abundance of insects are ideal to increase bat populations The changes in climate and meteorology are risk factor for emergence of the disease 31 There are changes in biotopes produces by man Reduction of natural biotopes may force bats to live nearer to human dwellings yes or other animal populations It can have an influence on the risk for infection of humans or other animal populations but not on the risk for emrgence in the bat population 32 yes is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Some bat species are good adapted to the urban environment That increase the risk 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease No influence on the risk for emergence Anaplasmose Anaplasma phagocytophillum Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification 67
7. 14 Fi vre catarrhale Orbivirus s rotype non Ruminants Vecteur Culico des mais aussi transmission verticale transplacentaire ovine 8 autres domestiques et s rotypes sauvages bovins ovins 15 Echinococcose Echinococcus oui H tes d finitifs Les canid s h tes d finitifs sont infect s par ingestion des abats des Hydatidose granulosus canid s h tes interm diaires infect s ex abats de moutons Les h tes 24 domestiques chiens et sauvages renards H tes interm diaires moutons bovins ch vres porcs cervid s sauvages sangliers humains interm diaires sont infect s par ingestion d herbe ou de nourriture contamin es par les mati res f cales des canid s infect s Les h tes d finitifs et interm diaires jouent un r le dans la transmission du parasite Les humains sont infect s accidentellement par contact avec des chiens infect s ou par ingestion de nourriture contamin e par les mati res f cales de chiens infect s mais ne jouent pas de r le pid miologique pas de transmission du parasite 16 Art rite virale quine Arterivirus non quid s a rosol et contact voies respiratoires sperme d talons infect s de mani re chronique 17 Ent rite n crotique Clostridium Non volaille C perfringens toxinotype A est ubiquitaire et commensal du tractus chez la volaille perfringens seuls intestinal de la volaille qui pr sente un
8. Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Poussi res sol Gestion des d chets chantillonnage pour la surveillance Air chantillonnage pour la surveillance Mati res f cales Hygi ne chantillonnage pour la surveillance eau viter les contacts avec les chantillonnage pour la surveillance matrices contamin es Augmentation des interactions entre les compartiments populations animaux Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique tude scientifique des r seaux de contacts entre animaux et augmenter la surveillance bas e sur le risque dans les hot spots de ces r seaux de contacts Animaux domestiques Bios curit animaux domestiques Animaux domestiques bios curit faune sauvage Faune sauvage surveillance pid miologique des faune sauvage maladies majeures dans diff rentes esp ces animales Animaux domestiques Lutte contre les nuisibles nuisibles Elevage outdoor Bios curit barri res absence de formation des leveurs et quarantaine des v t rinaires nouveaux animaux introduction formation des leveurs et d animaux partir de v t rinaires zones non sures h bergement formation des leveurs et inapropri des v t rinaires
9. 31 Changes in the eco landscaped structure of the forests ex North of America favor the ticks pullulation This would represent risk factor for emergence but such changes in ecosystems do not exist in Belgium 32 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Urbanisation has protective effects against emergence decrease contacts between humans and wild fauna decrease of the forest areas and of the wild fauna population 33 yes There exist a vectorial transmission of the disease via ticks but the quantification of their role in the transmission of the disease is difficult to estimate Tick transmission is a risk factor for emergence of the disease Leishmaniose Leishmania infantum Gallego 2004 Dujardin 2006 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 Very little is known at present about genetic variability because i there is little agreement on the exact taxonomy of L infantum sl no 0 and ii there is little precise information about the importance of the sexual part genetic recombination in the lifecycle as is the case for all trypanosomatids A genetic variability would have no influence on the risk for emergence of this disease 2 There exists considerable confusion on the division between cutaneous leishmaniosis CL and visceral leishmaniosis VL E g Yes there is a so far unpublished thesis from Rabat Un
10. Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability should have no influence on the risk for emergence 2 yes There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis The lack of knowledge in pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence 3 no The infection profile remains stable A change of pathogenesis could represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 4 yes The vaccination is efficient for the prevention of the disease in humans but has no epidemiological significance on the risk for 109 emergence of the disease because the transmission is vectorial This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease There are no known possibilities to pass the species barrier except the known susceptible species wild small mammals cattle ne 0 The passage of the species barrier would have no influence on the risk for emergence 6 yes 0 The disease can be transmitted to humans but this has no influence on the risk for emergence 7 yes The disease is present in Europe and goes up to the North of Europe following the increase in ticks populations This is a risk factor for emergence in Belgium 8 yes The last years the number of human cases increases in most countries France Germany Austria etc This is a risk factor f
11. 23 Fi vre du Nil Flavivirus oui Oiseaux chevaux Vecteur moustiques tiques occidental bovins nombreux mammif res domestiques et sauvages 24 Fi vre de la vall e Bunyaviridae oui Ruminants Vecteur moustiques contact direct avec des tissus infect s leveurs du Rift Phlebovirus domestiques et v t rinaires sauvages bovins ovins caprins 25 Maladie Orbivirus non Bovins et ruminants Vecteur Culico des h morragique sauvages pizootique cervid s 26 Maladie du prions non Cervid s Alimentation persistance dans les sols d p rissement domestiques et chronique des sauvages cervid s EST 27 Pleuropneumonie Mycoplasma non Bovins Contact direct ou a rosol sur une courte distance contagieuse bovine mycoides subsp domestiques mycoides variant Small Colony 28 Influenza aviaire virus influenza oui Oiseaux Contact direct a rosol hautement sous type H5N1 domestiques et pathog ne sauvages porcs 29 Cysticercose porcine Cysticercus oui H tes Porcs ingestion de d chets de cuisine contamin s ou d excr ments cellulosae Taenia interm diaires humains solium porcs domestiques Humains consommation de viande de porc insuffisamment cuite et sangliers Egalement possibilit de cycle inter humain ingestion par les humains sauvages h tes d eau fruits ou l gumes contamin s par des excr ments humains d finitifs humains 30 Rage classique Lyssavirus oui Carnivores Contact direct
12. 30 yes There are climatic and meteorological changes If sensitive animal are sufficiently numerous and if the climatic conditions are favorable warm and dry weather a plague outbreak can occur in rodents The fleas would also better survive and would be more abundant in case of soft winter Floods favor the moving of the rodents rats can also favor an emergence These are risk factors of emergence However hard winters if the gulf stream disappeared should be protective factors against emergence 31 yes There are changes in ecosystems produced by man and this represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 32 yes There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium The urbanisation creates opportunities of contacts between wild and domestic rats infected wild rodents can infect rodents living at proximity of the habitations which in their turn can infect humans If there are problems concerning the waste and dumping management the increase in urbanisation could in case of presence of the bacteria be a risk factor for emergence 33 yes Fleas mostly the rat fleas and body lice EID 16 5 p 892 893 2010 are responsible for the transmission of the disease between all the host species The presence of this vector in Belgium constitutes an important risk factor for emergence of the disease Enc phalites tiques Virus du groupe TBE Flaviviridae
13. 5 poled uoneqhour 4 wiajsXs uolonpoid avistayxg _ _ 10112590905 ayy op Aiijiqissod at 0 Jo 9209 56194 OJP ILM JO 10 y 950912 aspasip eu Aq uonepndod Jeumue au HIMOS ugdsuen 95691901 uonesieqog asesu uonesiedo Oj PIIM pue sjede Jnsawop usamyaq peog sisauapoujed eBuey sisausbouyed Jo jo OHIIPIIA 0 8101 1 Jatjjour 4 ueg 0 ayy so dounquysip 910 uiliolsueyxa Ag aseasip jonuo 0 JKON 1959 1 eului 4 asya jo UoNda ap Jo je S888890Jd 10 41 pue usa maq guonaeuajul U aseeloU usanmaq suonoeow Ul 8589197 sjeuue woy wnoads 350 ay AyIqissog 3 4 13 Les autres sc narios de ranking sont pr sent s l annexe 9 Sc nario 2 Facteurs de risque des maladies animales zoonotiques Sc nario 3 Facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales transmises par les denr es alimentaires Sc nario 4 Facteurs de risque d mergence d
14. countries and circumvent deliberately or out of ignorance the existing legislation This is a risk factor for re emergence of the disease in Belgium 19 yes There is an increase in trade of dogs for example importation of puppies from endemic regions with false vaccination certificates There are also illegal importations These are risk factors of re introduction of the disease in Belgium 20 yes aM There is an increase in transport of dogs for example transport of puppies from endemic regions with false vaccination certificates These are risk factors of re introduction of the disease in Belgium linked with the increase in trade 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 Be nn Dogs cats foxes are not concerned by production systems Intensive production systems of cattle however decrease the risk for contact of cattle with infected wild animals and constitute a protection factor against infection of cattle 23 yes aM Dogs cats foxes are not concerned by production systems Extensive production systems of cattle however increase the risk for contact of cattle with infected wild animals and constitute a risk factor for infection of cattle 24 There are no asymptomatic carriers The presence of asymptomatic carriers related to the length of the incubation period should no represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease because these animals in incub
15. uaa ma uolesiuequr i poned Buo ET fGojojoajew pue awo ul sabueys aseesip _ sassaoold jeusnpul jeaiBojouye sisauaboujed 8Bueu nejsifey LuSLIO118 uoHesijeqo s umo 21 uelun sueluny SJEWIUL woi soy ay aHueYD 3111415504 dads ayy abueyo 43111015804 PWILE Uae suono lue qo1q 129019 M Aq paanpoid 02 y ul 9 ndod q 5 1 JO Uonnqisip Jo pue AydesGoulap ul yeyndod jeune 3u ymos ul 1 122 t a risque d mergence iques e t ieuses exo les infect les anima 8 Facteurs de risque d mergence des malad r enario Sc t Jeyjoue ui soseo _ _ Ll _ E MES 0 _ _ _ _ wuny pue Lee mjeq _ ueu Aq posnpoid 5 5 502 ay ul e Aqijiqeuen 0 4 amp sjeluiue ponad uoneqnaui _ H bM 10 994 Jo 92195914 Ul asesu 1 D H
16. 1 21 2101 ynouy al JO 9209351 sassadold jeLsnpu 130 4987 eqn 4 pue aew sebueyD asegu UPS I L CIO suewny 0 wnnoads sou au suonejndod lt jewue uga maq SUONIB ISjUI asea easip ele 5194 suau 0 Auljiqissog 110 jeso joula abuelyD ulasealou _ ueu Aq pednpold sways sos ul sabueys 9 11099 Jo 14 _1 4 Alliqevea sneues ou 118 torielles ies animales infectieuses vec des malad emergence r isque d 4 Facteurs de r r enario Sc AeyilesjuonesifaT e te 7 sA WSLIO U8 Ul eSeeJoU UdHeSsHeqo s Moi siUdeBouwep uelunx _ uomesileqn Ajljiqeuen eh q e sufis Jo ajou te oraso 10 09A Jo souaselg Jo UoNqUIsIp 10 pue Audel KBojoJoajaw pue ayewo sabuey e oue ul 59589 Mau soUaploul Ul _ jo Jo We qolg 1 Aq jouos uhe ayy joluonnquysip 6
17. Expert 28 Expert 29 Expert 30 29 Expert 31 Expert 32 Expert 33 Expert 34 Expert 35 Expert 36 Expert 37 Expert 38 Expert 39 Expert 40 Expert 41 Expert 42 Expert 43 Expert 44 Expert 45 Expert 46 Expert 47 Expert 48 Expert 49 Expert 50 D9 9 9 9 BY DD G9 D9 Total phase 1 12 Total phase 2 30 Annexe 4 Mode d emploi de phase 1 de l enqu te Cher expert Vous avez accept de participer une tude du Comit scientifique de l Agence F d rale pour la S curit de la Cha ne Alimentaire AFSCA ayant pour but l identification de facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales en Belgique Les membres du groupe de travail vous remercient d avance de votre contribution scientifique Dans le cadre de cette tude la d finition de maladie mergente est la suivante maladie dont l incidence r elle le nombre de nouveaux cas augmente significativement dans une population donn e d une r gion donn e et durant une p riode donn e par rapport la situation pid miologique habituelle de cette maladie Cette d finition ne doit pas inclure les variations d incidence saisonni res Le groupe de travail responsable de
18. epidemiological role see higher an increase in its demography should have no influence on the risk for emergence 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but which have no influence on the risk for emergence 31 no 0 No influence of this factor 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium No influence of this factor 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease No influence of this factor Peste porcine africaine Asfivirus Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability should be a risk factor for emergence of new subtypes The absence of genetic vriability is a protection factor against the emergence of new subtypes 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis of this disease for example concerning the immunopathogenesis of the infection yes The lack of knowledge on pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence 3 Changes in pathogenesis are sometimes reported in the Russian Federation and EFSA recommends more research A change in yes the pathogenesis for example longer incubation period new host etc would represent a risk factor for emergence 4 There are difficulties concerning the vaccination due to the insufficient understanding of the immunity against the disease The yes ENA absence of vacc
19. 4 Vaccination is practiced in human medicine but is not practiced preventively in animals because the efficiency of the existing yes veterinary vaccines is variable and because the vaccination impedes the attempts of eradication of the disease These difficulties represent risk factors for re emergence of the disease 5 There are many target animal species but because of the weak genetic variability the probability of a change in the host no spectrum is weak An increase in virulence for an already existing target animal species is more probable A passage of the species barrier would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in a new animal species 6 8 0 The disease is zoonotic but the probability of retransmission of the disease from humans to animals is quasi inexistent The y zoonotic character has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population 7 The disease is already present worldwide so there is no geographical extension anymore A geographical extension is always a risk factor of re emergence of the disease 58 There are increases in incidence in neighbouring countries France United Kingdom Ireland and this represent a risk factor of re YSS uk emergence in Belgium 9 yes The bacterium is very resistant everywhere in the environment This is a risk factor of re emergence of the disease 10 Th
20. Presence yes absence no Impact risk protection no effect Scientific justification yes There are several strains of EHEC 0157 H7 showing differences but the true variability sensu stricto as consequence of genetic modifications has not been studied However it is considered that there are variabilities concerning the presence of different virulence factors the presence of different serotypes of different strains which differ in their ability to induce a disease in humans or to survive in the environment This represents a risk factor for emergence On the other hand the absence presence of pathogenicity is due to absence presence of the receptor expression for the toxin in ruminants and genetic variability will not change this yes There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis for example concerning the colonization namely of cattle but particularly of other ruminants the host specificity of the different identified clones etc This lack of knowledge can be a risk factor mainly for the healthy carriers No Currently there are no changes in the pathogenesis of the disease A change in pathogenesis in ruminants could only occur if receptors for the toxin would suddenly appear in endothelial cell in ruminants Such a change in pathogenesis would represent a risk factor for the emergence of the disese in ruminants yes Concerning the vaccination the human aspects have to be differen
21. There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 no 0 There are no intensive foxes production systems in Belgium No influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 23 no 0 There are no extensive foxes production systems in Belgium No influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 24 Yes ypa The infection is asymptomatic in carnivores definitive hosts This allows the dissemination of the parasite in the environment and infection of the intermediate hosts This is an important risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 y _ Foxes and domestic canids are the reservoir of the parasite Because of their epidemiological role in the transmission of the es Lop k disease and the possibility of asymptomatic carriage this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 ng 0 There is long incubation period Because the excretion of the parasite and transmission of the disease does not depend on the presence of clinical signs a long incubation period would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 27 There are contacts between domestic and wild animals concerned by the disease The wild foxes or domestic dogs and cats a definitive hosts get infected by eating infested wild rodents There is also a possibility for foxes to eat some died infected small yes ruminants Wild rodents get infected by ingesting parasite eggs via fece
22. 0 There are increasing interactions between the ruminant populations and the humans Since the disease is not zoonotic an increase in such interactions will not influence the risk for emergence 15 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium This should have no influence on the risk for emergence since the disease is not zoonotic 16 There is no increase in the ruminant population in Belgium An increase in the animal population concerned by the disease should represent a risk for emergence of the disease higher transmission rates 17 yes 0 is increasing but humans not involved the risk of spread of the disease only risk of transport of infected vectors 18 yes 0 is increasing but humans not involved the risk of spread of the disease only risk of transport of infected vectors 19 Animal trade is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence through the risk for importation of animals infected by serotypes YSS te against which the animal population is not immunised 20 Animal transport is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence through the risk for transport of animals infected by serotypes against which the animal populations immunologically naive 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 There are intensive production systems for ruminants in Belgium The high density of the ani
23. A aa of infection because the disease is transmissible by direct contact 28 The wild fauna could play an epidemiological role transmission of the disease to domestic animals or to other wild animals There yes is no described introduction of Q fever in herds from the wild fauna but this should be studied The infected wild fauna could represent a risk factor for emergence The role of the wild fauna should have to be more studied 29 Ag There is no demographic growth of the wild fauna except wild cervids A demographic growth of the wild fauna could be a risk factor for emergence of the disease because it is capable to transmit the disease to domestic animals 30 There are climatic and meteorological changes An increase in warm and dry periods represent a risk factor of dissemination of Q yes 0 fever dry matters from abortion products containing the bacterium can be dispersed by the wind and consequently of emergence On the contrary heavy rainfall and floodings may decrease fever risk The result is 0 31 yes aM There are changes in the ecosystems For example a return to earlier production systems outside breeding etc or increases in domains for the wild fauna could represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 32 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium This represents a protection factor against emergence in humans because it yes decreases the possibilities of aerogen transmission from animals
24. Les facteurs de risque et les exemples de maladies ont t encod s dans un tableau Excel a double entr e de mani re a pouvoir confronter chaque facteur de risque de protection a chaque exemple de maladie annexe 2 78 experts ont t invit s participer a l enqu te sur base de leur expertise Le taux de participation la phase 1 nombre d experts ayant effectu la phase 1 le nombre d experts ayant t sollicit s est de 64 50 78 L annexe reprend la liste des 50 experts ayant particip la phase 1 de l enqu te Delphi ainsi que les maladies qu ils ont valu es Chaque expert a analys plusieurs maladies minimum deux maladies par expert et chaque maladie a t analys e par plusieurs experts entre 2 et 15 experts par maladie sauf concernant deux maladies la pleuropneumonie contagieuse bovine et la peste qui n ont t anays es que par un seul expert annexe 3 Les experts devaient par maladie donner une valuation de tous les facteurs de risque de la liste Un pr test a t r alis aupr s de 5 experts du groupe de travail du Comit scientifique d identifier de possibles probl mes d interpr tation et d y rem dier Le document Excel assorti d un mode d emploi d taill a t envoy par courrier lectronique chaque expert individuellement Le mode d emploi d taill est pr sent l annexe 4 Les experts ont ensuite t invit s r pondre dans le docume
25. Persistence of the virus in the environment should have no influence on the risk for emergence because the vectorial transmission pathway 10 BS __ There are quarantine and detection systems the notification of the disease is mandatory These are protection factors of emergence of the disease 11 no 0 This disease is not concerned by this factor 12 yes There are several problems of detection of the disease concerning the passive surveillance the clinical signs are similar to these 94 of the Bluetongue there is no active surveillance programme the wild fauna is difficult to survey lack of serological diagnostic methods on the market These difficulties represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease dissemination before being detected 13 Currently there are no increases interactions between domestic and wild cattle in Belgium An increase in such interactions could be a risk factor for emergence through a favoured vectorial transmission 14 0 increase in interactions between animal and human populations Non zoonotic disease no influence of an interaction with umans 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium Non zoonotic disease and no influence of a demographic growth 16 ne aM There is no growth of the domestic ruminant population If there was an increase it would represent a risk factor
26. Sc nario 2 Facteurs de risque influen ant l mergence des maladies sporadiques groupe de 6 maladies Dans ce sc nario l influence de l enl vement d une maladie sur les r sultats du ranking est plus importante l ordre du ranking change car il y a moins de maladies Les r sultats concernant les petits groupes sont donc moins stables 126 4 00 3 50 3 00 2 50 2 00 1 50 1 00 0 50 0 00 0 50 1 00 1 50 2 00 2 50 3 00 x12 27 x x 2 X X X xXx 26 ao MMM x x lt gt lt 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 gt x 2 5 1331 33 XxX 18 x xxix 19 N eo xx J X KIX XXX X xXx 611 21 n 22 X 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 10 MAverage XS_1 XS_2 XS_3 XS_4 XS_5 XS_6 Aver_S1_to_S6 127 Annexe 11 R sum des trios de t te des facteurs de risque pour les diff rents sc narios Pour chaque sc nario de ranking les trois facteurs de risque les plus importants sont cit s L occurrence de ces facteurs de risque dans l ensemble des sc narios a t compt e et les facteurs de risque ayant l occurrence la plus lev e ont t mis en vidence voir point 3 Conclusions S Groupe de maladies Facteurs de risque les plus importan
27. The urbanisation has no influence of the risk for emergence in the animal populations 33 yes Ticks can transmit the disease but this infection pathway seems to be less important This is a potential risk factor for emergence because certain strains could adapt to the vectors see point 1 3 possibility to change in pathogenesis Hantavirose Hantavirus Ben gis et al 2004 Zeier et al 2005 Enria and Levis 2004 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification 48 yes risk absence protection no no effect I no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability should have no influence on the risk for emergence 2 yes There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis This is a risk factor for emergence 3 According to Zeier et al 2005 altough rodents are the main reservoir there is a possibility of transmission of the disease to non yes natural hosts such as dogs cats etc and this can influence the virulence and the pathogenicity This is a risk factor for emergence in new animal populations under a more pathogenic form If the virus adapts to domestic animal populations this represent a risk factor for infection of humans 4 yes There are difficulties to vaccine wild rodents This is a risk factor for emergence 5 According to Zeier et al 2005 altough rodents are the main reservoir
28. animaux m lange d animaux formation des leveurs et d ges diff rents v t rinaires Possibilit de changement de spectre d h te d une esp ce animale vers une autre esp ce animale franchissement de la barri re d esp ce 135 Sous Recommandations cat gories du facteur de risque Mesure concrete de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique animales susceptibles bios curit Eviter les contacts avec les esp ces Surveillance Recherche scientifique Systemes de production extensifs Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Contacts avec bios curit animaux sources Longue p riode d incubation chez l animal Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique quarantaine Vecteur Sous cat gories du facteur risque de Recommandations Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique De mani re globale moustiques tiques Culicoides etc o Surveillance des populations de vecteurs pour d tecter d ventuelles augmentations de populations surveillance de l apparition d une nouvelle esp ce tude de la dynamique des populations ex overwintering etc Surveillance de l infecti
29. e et durant une p riode donn e par rapport la situation pid miologique habituelle de cette maladie ceci ind pendamment des fluctuations saisonni res habituelles de la maladie nouvelle maladie caus e par un agent pathog ne non connu auparavant maladie caus e par des agents pathog nes qui ont mut URL http www oie int fr sante animale dans le monde maladies de la liste de loie 201 1 maladie qui existe d j et qui se r pand dans une nouvelle r gion ou elle n tait pas pr sente auparavant Dans le cadre de cet avis le terme maladie animale mergente est donc a consid rer au sens large du terme augmentation d incidence introduction et tablissement en Belgique si la maladie est exotique dispersion si la maladie est d ja pr sente etc Cette d finition est d taill e dans la brochure du Comit scientifique 2010 Il est galement noter qu une maladie animale pour tre mergente est n cessairement une maladie transmissible Maladie potentiellement mergente ou risque d mergence maladie qui n est pas pr sente en Belgique mais qui est pr valente dans un autre pays maladie exotique et pour laquelle le risque d introduction et de diss mination sur le territoire court ou plus long terme est r el Maladie r mergente ou risque de r mergence maladie qui a exist en Belgique qui a t radiqu e mais qui r appara t ou qui risque de r
30. long incubation period would represent a risk factor for emergence possibility of viral transmission before being detained by clinical signs 27 yes 0 There are possibilities of contact between domestic and wild rodents but the disease does not concern domestic animals The contacts between domestic and wild animals have no influence on the risk for emergence 28 The wild rodents bank voles campagnols roussatres brownn rat rat surmulot play an epidemiological role because they are yes the reservoir of the virus This is a risk factor for emergence because the control of the wilf fauna is difficult 29 yes is a growth of the rodent population in Belgium A growth of the rodent population is a risk factor for emergence of the isease 30 yes mye There are climatic and meteorological changes A climatic change accompanied by an increase in precipitations leads to an increase in rodent population density which is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 31 There are changes in the ecosystems This is a risk factor for emergence in humans because rural and wooded zones increase yes ate the risk for contact with infected wild rodents 32 yes aM There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Urbanisation of previous rural areas favours the contact between humans and infected rodents 33 no 0 Hantavirosis is not a vectorial insect disease Insects have no influence on the risk for emergence Cysticerc
31. onbisse s obey 021 215 2 auaboujed 2 SOPIAIS9 sep enbiuoiyo juewessuedep enbnoozide onbibeyowsy sipejen X ap 4 JIN 4 nb ssej ouI910d 3 S d 1 814814 sap anbidAje siuejoAn syueuiwuni synod enbidAye JSL 509 Y 2202001429 esouse deuy 2 2910 1109 A zoo 1 UIAOg 9 QUIAOG 024 21 5 2 X X X X X X X analy ap aipejeyy auldiod X X X X X X Expert Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3 Expert 4 Expert 5 Expert 6 Expert 7 Expert 8 Expert 9 Expert 10 Expert 11 Expert 12 Expert 13 Expert 14 Expert 15 Expert 16 Expert 17 Expert 18 Expert 19 Expert 20 Expert 21 Expert 22 Expert 23 Expert 24 Expert 25 Expert 26 Expert 27
32. rentes maladies animales Le but est aussi de quantifier l importance de l influence des facteurs de risque ou de protection sur l mergence de ces maladies Il vous est vivement conseill de d abord lire enti rement ce mode d emploi et les instructions dans le document Excel feuille Instructions avant de commencer l exercice Dans un souci de traitement statistique ult rieur des donn es il est n cessaire que chaque expert remplisse le tableau pour minimum deux maladies Il vous est donc demand de faire l exercice pour la les maladie s qui vous est sont propos e s en rouge dans le document Excel feuille Risk factors ainsi que pour toute autre maladie de votre choix Il vous est galement demand de qualifier votre niveau d expertise pour chacune de ces maladies 1 faible expertise 2 expertise mod r e 3 grande expertise 4 excellente expertise ligne 7 dans le document Excel feuille Risk factors Afin que chaque expert interpr te l exercice de la m me mani re il vous est demand de r pondre aux questions sur base des connaissances actuelles de consid rer l mergence des maladies animales uniquement et pas l mergence des maladies chez l homme en cas de zoonose et uniquement en Belgique pas en Europe par exemple Pour une objectivit optimale il vous est conseill de travailler verticalement dans le tableau Excel c est dire une maladie la fois 31 La premi re q
33. s roth que par exemple Animaux domestiques Pr l vements chez les animaux de production et de compagnie et conservation long terme s roth que par exemple Tiques insectes Mise au point d un syst me de capture et d identification syst matiques des insectes et tiques susceptibles d tre vecteurs Porteurs sains identification des porteurs sains par des activit s de surveillance Difficult s de contr ler la maladie par la vaccination Sous cat gories du facteur de risque Recommandations Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique Probl mes de disponibilit vaccin inexistant ou difficile produire car antig nes difficiles pr parer ou pathog ne difficile isoler et cultiver in vitro accords avec des compagnies priv es recherche scientifique d veloppement de vaccins Vaccin non maintien des stocks de disponible vaccins accord avec compagnies priv es Vaccin non autoris demande d autorisation si pertinent analyse par l AFMPS ventuellement autorisation temporaire d utilisation 131 Probl mes de performance faible efficacit de protection ex parasite variabilit g n tique vaccin plus adapt aux souches qui circulent sur le terrain Pas de DIVA Administration difficile du vaccin manque de participation des stakeho
34. salive morsure carnivores g notype 1 domestiques et sauvages bovins autres mammif res 31 Peste Yersinia pestis oui Rongeurs vecteur puces rats gt humains humains gt humains inhalation domestiques humain gt humain contact morsures griffes chats gt humains 26 sauvages ingestion rongeurs gt chats principalement les rats chats lapins li vres 32 Enc phalites Virus du groupe oui Principalement Vecteur tiques lait cru provenant de bovins infect s tiques TBE Flaviviridae humains et esp ces sylvatiques bovins 33 ESB atypique prions type et oui bovins alimentaire type L 34 Dirofilariose Dirofilaria Oui Canid s Vecteur moustiques ae domestiques et sauvages Mais aussi de nombreux animaux domestiques et sauvages moutons ch vres chevaux porcs sangliers chiens chats renards blaireaux rats furrets cerfs etc Les rongeurs et les lagomorphes sont les plus sensibles et repr sentent le r servoir de la maladie Toutes les esp ces animales ainsi que les oiseaux les amphibiens et les invert br s peuvent tre sensibles Mais aussi un grand nombre d esp ces animales domestiques et sylvatiques Les humains sont seulement infect s par certaines souches de perfringens toxinotype A productrices d ent rotoxines qui sont diff rentes des souches induisant l ent rotox mie chez la volaille Ch
35. scientifique Le Comit scientifique est compos des membres suivants D Berkvens A Clinquart G Daube P Delahaut B De Meulenaer L De Zutter J Dewulf P Gustin L Herman P Hoet H Imberechts A Legr ve C Matthys C Saegerman M L Scippo M Sindic N Speybroeck W Steurbaut E Thiry M Uyttendaele T van den Berg C Van Peteghem Conflits d int r ts Aucun conflit d int r ts n a t constat Remerciements Le Comit scientifique remercie les experts qui ont particip l enqu te Delphi Amory Brochier J Bughin A Caij Y Carlier E Claerebout E Cox G Czaplicki F Dal Pozzo G Daube K De Clercq R De Deken P Deprez L De Zutter P Dorny G Ducoffre D Fretin S Geerts M Gilbert M Govaerts H Guyot F Haesebrouck G Hendrickx P Heyman L Herman F Koenen M Lebrun B Losson D Maes A Mauroy K Mintiens M Pensaert D Pierard S Quoilin S Ribbens S Roels S Van Gucht E Vanopdenbosch J Vercruysse D Votion P Wattiau S Zientara ainsi que les membres du groupe de travail Le Comit scientifique remercie la Direction d encadrement pour valuation des risques et les membres du groupe de travail pour la pr paration du projet d avis Le groupe de travail tait compos de Membres du Comit scientifique E Thiry D Berkvens J Dewulf K Dierick Sci Com 2009 2013 H Imberechts C Saegerman T van den Berg Experts externe
36. subtypes 14 no There is no increase in interactions between the avian porcine and the human popuation in Belgium If there was such increase this should be a risk factor for transmission to humans and emergence in the human population the human cases of H5N1 followed a narrow contact between poultry and humans However despite the theoretical risk for human adaptation with subsequent inter human transmission there will probably be no subsequent inter human transmission 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium Human demographic growth would have no influence on the risk for emergence 16 no There is currently no growth of the domestic wild avian and porcine populations in Belgium A growth of these animal populations should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease because an increase in animal density favours the transmission rate of the disease 17 yes Human traveling is increasing This is a risk factor for viral introduction in Belgium namely through the authorized or illicit transport of birds 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This is a risk factor for viral introduction in Belgium namely through the authorized or illicit transport of birds 19 yes Birds animal trade is increasing This is a risk factor for introduction and emergence of the disease in the country through the risk for
37. 27 yes 0 There can be contacts between the domestic animals and the wild fauna but this has no influence on the risk of emergence because the vectorial transmission does not need contacts 28 yes Because wild canids are reservoir of the disease and that they can transmit the infection the wild fauna has an epidemiological role This represent a risk factor for emergence because it is difficult to control the wild fauna 29 yes There is an increase of the foxes demograpgy distribution in Belgium An increase in the wild carnivore population represent a risk factor for emergence 30 There are climatic and meteorological changes A warm and humid climate favourable for the reproduction of the vector yes HER populations can favour the expansion of the disease This represent a risk factor 31 There are no true changes in the ecosystems in Belgium Changes in ecosystems if they favour the multiplication of the moquitoes be risk factors for emergence 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Since the vectorial mosquitoes are present in urbanized areas such as in humid natural areas and in countryside urbanisation has no influence on the risk for emergence 33 yes The vectorial moquitoes anoph les culex aedes are present in belgium This represent a risk factor for emergence 115 Annexe 9 Sc narios de ranking pour les diff rents groupes de maladies Les intervalles de c
38. 9 appum JO jeo Gojolwepidy et te tt H _ H SUIS pomo oym 1811 Hg uoneutosen HeH 1 en Jo Jlo esed m JELUIUe 58 0 1 Ul asea W9 S S uononpod 5 UONNGLASIP 10 pue Ayde Houlep ul eseeJoul sisausBoued sBueu7 9 091901 001 051 00 9 ou Wa qolg Mau BOUaPISUI SBAtDUT fue 9 59559201 WIS 10119 U sjewjue aseasl sisaueBoujed Jo 3287 aseauou uonesijekojg 12 aseasoul uoHesteqa s Aq aseesip 0 AMAL Jo jealydesHoab Yorsueyxy uonesidecif 1 10 9529100 00 nt 0 4 ul abueys wnnoads sou 10 AIC ISSOg SUOHO 5 pue sebueys uzu juae ay Jo 515194 5910905 ayy abueys 0 4111915504 Aq peu189u09 ay 0 pue SJELUIUE uaa maq pezuog OU 123 Annexe 10 Influence de l h t rog n it des groupes sur les r sultats des rankings L h t rog n
39. Belgium 9 ae 0 There is no persistance of the parasite in the environment Because the transmission is vectorial a persistence in the environment should have no influence on the risk for emergence 10 __ There is no legislation nor sanitary polici Some measures such as compulsory prophylactic treatment of dogs travelling to endemic areas could protect against the emergence of the disease 11 no 0 The disease is not concerned by this factor 12 yes There exists a problem of detection of the disease This represent a risk factor of emergence 13 There is no increase in interactions between the animal compartments concerned by the disease An increase would have no no 0 influence on the risk of emergence because the transmission pathway involves mosquitos and does not need some interactions between animals 14 There is no increase in interactions between the animal and the human populations An increase would have no influence on the no 0 risk of emergence because the transmission pathway involves mosquitos and does not need some interactions between animals and humans 15 ng 0 ibe no significant demographic growth in Belgium The emergence of the disease is not influenced by a human demographic growth 16 mo yg There is no increase in the dog population in Belgium Such an increase would represent a risk for an increased transmission of the disease and for an increased incidence of the disease 17 Human tr
40. Consequently there is no vaccination possible If no vaccination no protection and higher risk for emergence no Currently there is no evidence for passage of the species barrier But the possibility of passage of the barrier species exists and represents a potential risk factor for emergence in other ruminant species no 0 In principle the disease is not transmissible to humans However in vitro conversion experiments indicate that CWD prions convert human as well as bovine and sheep prion proteins into its abnormal conformer PrPres albeit at a very low rate A transmission to humans should not represent a risk for emergence in the animal populations because humans do not retransmit infection no Currently there is no geographical extension of the disease which is restricted to North America However considering the knowledge collected in North America with regard to the epidemiology of CWD spreading of the disease from geographical clusters and the demographical and geographical bias in the Belgian and EU CWD survey the presence of CWD in EU cervids cannot be excluded Since the assumption of a random sampling in the Belgian and EU CWD survey is not fulfilled a quantitative estimate of the true prevalence with confidence intervals is not possible since it might underestimate the true prevalence if the epidemiological situation with regards to CWD in cervids was different in blank areas Since the disea
41. If there was a geographical no 0 extention this would have no influence on the risk for emergence because the transmission of the parasite by ingestion stays geographically localized The risk is rather linked to importation of infected pigs 8 Even in developing coutries Peru mexico the incidence decreases Flisser et al 2010 Plos NTD 4 12 e831 An increase no incidence represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease in Belgium because of the increased risk of importation of infected pigs De decreased incidence is a protection factor against emergence 9 The parasite can persist in the environment pastures surface waters 2 months during the summer and 5 months during the yes winter This can increase the risk for infection of the igs via ingestion of eggs in the environment and represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 10 w There are controls at importation which represent a protection factor against the introduction of the disease in the country These 795 i repersent protection factors against the emergence of the disease 11 Raw pork minced meat consumption is frequent in Belgium Use frozen meat fo that use could reduce the risk but only for no 0 humans There are no changes in the technological or industrial processes concerning the pork industry which could have an influence on the risk of emergence of the disease 12 There are problems of detection of the disease live animals are asymp
42. Morse 2004 et Slingenbergh et al 2004 Quatre domaines ont t retenus facteurs li s l agent infectieux facteurs li s l activit humaine o facteurs li s aux animaux facteurs li s aux changements environnementaux Chaque domaine comprend plusieurs facteurs de risque sp cifiques La terminologie utilis e pour d finir les facteurs de risque a t choisie de mani re ce que ces facteurs soient adapt s aux diff rents exemples de maladies s lectionn s et de mani re minimiser les probl mes d interpr tation et les biais de r ponses aux questions par les experts voir Etape 3 Enqu te Delphi Facteurs li s l agent infectieux R f rences 1 Variabilit g n tique mutation recombinaison etc Webster and Hulse 2004 2 Manque de connaissance de la pathog nie 3 Changement dans la pathog nie changement dans le Morse 2004 Angulo d veloppement de la maladie chez l h te par exemple 2004 augmentation de virulence p riode d incubation prolong e variation dans l interaction h te pathog ne 4 Difficult s de contr ler la maladie par la vaccination 5 Possibilit de changement de spectre d h te d une esp ce animale vers une autre esp ce animale franchissement de la barri re d esp ce 6 Possibilit de changement de spectre d h te des animaux vers l homme 7 Extension de la distribution g ographique de l agent
43. The problems of detection of emergence are risk factors of emergence of the disease 13 No There are no increases in interactions contacts between the ruminant populations cattle Increases in interactions for example via animal purchases of healthy carriers which increase the risk for infection of the cattle herds would represent a risk factor but minor because the bacteria is prevalent in the environment and re infections can occur from the environment This type of reinfection is as important as reinfection due to contact with other animals Walking around on a farm is enough to spread the infection and the dose needed to infect reinfect an animal is low It is much more important to prevent shedding in the environment than to prevent contact between animal compartments 14 yes There are increases in interactions between small ruminants and humans for example in ecological farms and educational farms for children In Denmark it has been shown that infections occur around areas with concentrations of cattle farm So when human and cattle regions come closer in contact this is a risk factor These increases in interactions represent a risk factor for emergence It is a weak risk factor because the most important way of transmission to humans remains the food borne infection and not the direct contact 15 No 0 There is significant demographic growth in Belgium and the emergence of the di
44. and humans populations This would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium This disease is not concerned by a human demographic growth 16 ne 0 There is no growth of the horse population According to the transmission pathways a growth of the horses population would not influence the risk for emergence 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing According to the transmission pathways and to the fact that the disease is not zoonotic such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence 18 yes 0 Human tourism is increasing According to the transmission pathways and to the fact that the disease is not zoonotic such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence 19 yes There is an increase in trade of horses and of sperm This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 20 yes There is an increase in transport of horses and of sperm This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 no 0 Horses are not concerned by production systems 23 yes 0 are extensive production systems for horses in Belgium pasture This has no influence on the risk of emergence of the isease 24 yes There is a life asymptomatic carriage by chronic infected stallions Because these stallions ar
45. because horses are dead end hosts 20 yes There is an increase in transport International transport is a risk factor for introduction of the disease because it allows movements of infected mosquitoes illegal importation of infected birds and importation of goods which can contain infected mosquitoes cf outbreak in the USA Transport of horses is not a risk factor for emergence since horses are dead end hosts 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 no 0 Wild birds which are responsible for the propagation and dissemination of the disease are not production species concerned by production systems No influence of production systems on the emergence of West Nile disease 23 no 0 Wild birds which are responsible for the propagation and dissemination of the disease are not production species and are not concerned by production systems No influence of production systems on the emergence of West Nile disease 24 yes Migratory birds can transport the viruses asymptomatically over long distances This is an important risk factor for emergence 25 yes pag The animal reservoirs of the disease are the wild birds which are difficult to control This is an important risk factor for emergence 26 no 0 The incubation period of West Nile disease is not particularl
46. because the yes 0 transmission of the parasite ingestion of infected grass does not involve a direct contact between animals and because wildlife does not play an epidemiological role 28 No 0 The wild fauna does not play an epidemiological role If the wildlife did play an epidemiological role this would have no influence on the risk for emergence because infection of domestic cattle comes from humans 29 There is no demographic growth of the wild fauna concerned by the disease Because the wild fauna does not play an no 0 epidemiological role in the transmission of the disease to domestic cattle such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 30 Yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 31 Yes 0 There are changes in the ecosystems produced by man but without effect on the risk of emergence of the disease 32 Yes There is an ongoing urbanization in Belgium Due to the urbanisation there are water floodings which can spread eggs of the parasite This is a risk factor 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease 52 Echinococcose Echinococcus multilocularis Mas Coma et al 2008 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability would have no infl
47. bite virus can resist for a very long time is an important risk factor for introduction and emergence of the disease 20 There is an increase in transports Transport of risk products meat or delicatessen from infected animals and from prevalent yes countries in which the virus can resist for a very long time is an important risk factor for introduction and emergence of the disease 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 yes There are intensive production systems of pigs in Belgium The high swine density increases the possibility of spread of the disease which is a risk factor for emergence 23 yes There are extensive production systems of pigs in Belgium This is a risk factor for emergence in the domestic pigs population through possibilities of contact with wild boars Another reason is the possibility to introduce the virus by swillfeeding animals 85 containing infected pork meat 24 yes There no true asymptomatic carriers but depending on the age of the animals there can be animals without clinical signs EFSA recommends more research The presence of asymptomatic carriers represents a risk factor for spread of this high contagious disease 25 no Wild suidae are animal reservoir but mainly in Africa and not in Belgium or in neighbouring countries The presence of animal r
48. ces changements voir annexe 8 canals Changements climatiques et m t orologiques Sous cat gories facteur de risque du Recommandations Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique r chauffement viter les facteurs qui contribuent au r chauffement surveillance des populations de vecteurs et des maladies vectorielles humidit pr cipitations r duire le nombre de points d eau stagnante surveillance des populations de vecteurs et des maladies dont la propagation est favoris e par l humidit voir annexe 8 Globalisation augmentation des voyages Sous Recommandations cat gories du Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude facteur de scientifique risque Intra EC o contr les aux 137 Extra EC fronti res aux a roports ports o informations de bios curit aux voyageurs Expansion des vecteurs biocides dans les moyens de transport avion bateau Augmentation des interactions entre les populations animales et humaines Sous cat gories du Recommandations facteur de risque Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude gestion scientifique interactions avec le tudier les agents zoonotiques potentiellment transmis par ces personnel de ferme formation du personnel interactions interactions avec des personnes
49. cette tude a d cid de travailler partir d une liste d exemples de maladies animales 32 maladies animales ont t s lectionn es et r parties en plusieurs groupes et sous groupes voir document Excel feuille Risk factors 1 maladies existant en Belgique soit l tat end mique soit l tat sporadique et pour lesquelles un risque d mergence peut exister 2 maladies dont l mergence est tablie en Belgique et 3 maladies non pr sentes en Belgique exotiques et risque d introduction et de diss mination en Belgique maladies potentiellement mergentes Parall lement cela le groupe de travail a s lectionn 33 facteurs de risque et les a r partis en 4 groupes voir document Excel feuille Risk factors 1 facteurs li s l agent infectieux 2 facteurs li s l homme et son activit 3 facteurs li s aux animaux et 4 facteurs li s aux changements dans l environnement Dans le document Excel des explications concernant certains facteurs de risque sont fournies sous forme de commentaires annex s aux cellules triangle rouge Pour lire les commentaires se placer dans la cellule gt clic droit gt afficher le commentaire Le but de cet exercice est d identifier parmi les 33 facteurs propos s lesquels sont des facteurs de risque d mergence lesquels sont des facteurs de protection de l mergence et ou lesquels n ont pas d influence sur l mergence des diff
50. chances to retransmit the disease before becoming diseased 27 yes aM There are contacts between domestic animals and wildlife This is a risk factor for emergence because proximity favors the vectorial transmission by the ticks especially when the wildlife is asymptomatic 28 Yes Numerous wild mammal species cervidae foxes rodents maybe birds constitute the natural reservoir of the bacteria in Europe This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 29 No There is no increase in the demography of the wild fauna concerned by the disease Since the wild fauna plays a role of natural reservoir of the disease an increase in demography of the wild life would constitute a risk factor for emergence of the disease 30 There are climatic and meteorological changes more rains in the winter and more dry periods in the summer for example which can induce changes in the distribution and activity of the ticks Ixodes ricinus live in temperate regions biotope high humidity Yes and the ticks are twice more active and mobile when the weather is warm and dry Climatic changes could constitute a risk factor for emergence of the disease via a modification of the ecosystems which could become more favorable to the proliferations of the vector 69 31 There are changes in the ecosystems produced by man Modifications of the soils state or occupation drainage forest Fes fr
51. de cet avis 2 2 M thodologie Etape 1 Etablissement d une liste d exemples de maladies animales r mergentes ou risque de et classement selon leur situation pid miologique Etape 2 Etablissement d une liste de facteurs de risque et ou de protection d mergence des maladies animales infectieuses et classement en domaines sur base du mod le de convergence King et al 2004 Etape 3 Enqu te Delphi Etape 4 Analyse des donn es 2 3 R sultats 2 3 1 Evaluation qualitative 2 3 2 Evaluation quantitative de l impact des facteurs de risque protection sur l mergence des maladies animales infectieuses 2 4 Incertitudes 2 4 1 Probl mes d interpr tation 2 4 2 H t rog n it des groupes de maladies animales infectieuses 2 4 3 Nombre d experts ayant valid la seconde phase 2 4 4 Interd pendance de certains facteurs de risque 3 Conclusions et recommandations R f rences Annexe 1 Caract ristiques principales des exemples de maladies s lectionn es dans le cadre de cette tude Annexe 2 Tableau Excel a double entr e facteurs de risque et maladies Annexe 3 D tail de la r partition des experts en fonction des exemples de maladies s lectionn es Annexe 4 Mode d emploi de la phase 1 de l enqu te Annexe 5 Sch ma des questions de la phase 1 Annexe 6 Exemple de proposition de consensus servant de base pour la phase 2 de l enqu te Delphi Annexe 7 Lettre
52. disease is not contagious a long period of incubation would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 27 yes 0 There can be contacts between horses and wild fauna but since the wild fauna is not concerned by the disease this has no influence on the risk for emergence 28 no 0 The wild fauna is not concerned by the disease not infected no epidemiological role 29 no 0 The wild fauna is not concerned by the disease 30 it There are climatic and meteorological changes The risk is linked to the environmental conditions on pastures poor quality and yes to the season spring and fall The climate and environmental changes are risk factors of emergence of the disease 31 ay 0 There no changes in ecosystems Changes in the environmental characteristics of the pastures have no influence on the risk for emergence 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium but which has no influence on the risk for emergence 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease No influence Fi vre aphteuse Aphtovirus Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 There is a genetic variability but currently no genetic variability capable to contribute to the risk for emergence A genetic no variability capable to contribute to the risk for emergence ex change in host spectrum towards new animal species should repr
53. emergence of the disease 14 There is no increase in the interaction between the concerned animal populations and humans Such an increase would incease No 0 the risk for bite of humans by infected ticks and sould be a risk factor for infection in humans But because humans do not retransmit the infection accidental host this would not represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the animal population 15 No 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium Human demographic growth should have no influence on the risk for 68 emergence because humans are accidental hosts and do not retransmit the infection 16 There is no growth of the animal populations concerned by the disease Due to the increase of the infection pressure an increase in animal populations would represent a risk factor of emergence for the disease 17 Yes 0 Human traveling is increasing This increases the risk for human infection but this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal populations in Belgium because humans are accidental hosts 18 Yes Human tourism is increasing There are certain touristic activities in forest increasing the risk for infection in humans and in their companion animals 19 There is a general increase in trade but this has no influence on the epidemiology of the disease nor on the risk for emergence Yes 0 Since the disease
54. few months and has to be repeated the vaccination is forbidden in Europe These difficulties constitute a risk factor for emergence 5 The bacteria is highly host specific and the probability to change the host spectrum is very low If there was a possibility to pass the species barrier this would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in a new animal species 6 0 The disease is not zoonotic and this possibility would have no influence on the risk for emergence because humans should not retransmit the disease 7 The disease is widespread in Africa Asia and some European countries but there is no geographical extension of concern to no Belgium A further geographical extension would represent a risk factor For example the regular episodes in the Southern of Europe namely in France represent a risk factor for emergence in Belgium 8 There have been re emergences in Europe since the eradication in the XIXth century in Portugal in 1951 in Spain in 1957 in yes France in 1984 in Italy in 1990 1993 in Portugal in 1999 These re emergences represent an important risk factor for emergence in Belgium via the trade risk for importation of infected animals 98 Mycoplasms are not considered to be resistant in the environment which is a protection factor against emergence The no persistance the environment would rep
55. for emergence vectorial transmission favoured 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing No influence of an increase in human travels 18 yes 0 Human tourism is increasing No influence of an increase in human tourism 19 yes There is an increase in trade of cattle Because of the risk at importation this is a risk factor for emergence 20 yes There is an increase in transport of cattle Because of the risk at importation this is a risk factor for emergence 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 There are intensive production systems in Belgium for cattle Stabling is a protection factor against infection and emergence in yes the domestic cattle population because the risk for contact with the culicoides is reduced except that culicoides can enter the stabels Wild cervids are not concerned by production systems 23 yes There are extensive production systems in Belgium for cattle This leads to an increased risk for contact with the culicoides and is a risk factor for emergence in the domestic cattle population Wild cervids are not concerned by production systems 24 ne 0 There is no asymptomatic carriage An asymptomatic carriage would have no influence on the risk for emergence because the vectorial transmission culicoides does not depend on the presence of clinical signs 25 i The host animals are the wild cervids but there is no anima
56. humans But since humans do not retransmit the virus they are dead end hosts The yes zoonotic character of the disease is not a risk factor for emergence no influence 7 The disease is present in Europe not in Belgium for example in Northern Italy other neighbouring countries The geographical yes extension of the disease is a risk factor for emergence of sylvatic rabies in Belgium 8 yes jpa There is an increase in incidence in other european countries neighbouring countries for example This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in Belgium through the risk for illegal transport of infected animals 9 0 The virus is not able to persist in the environment The possibility of viral persistance in the environment should have no influence on the risk for emergence because transmission requires a contact between animals 10 g ___ The presence of a legislation sanitory policy measures vaccination dogs foxes forbidden movements of unvaccinated dogs is protection factor against the emergence of the disease 11 no 0 No influence of changes in technological or industrial processes for the risk for emergence of this disease 12 Illegal importation of susceptible animals poses a continuous risk for reintroduction Some travellers and animal rescue organisations adopt sick and abandonned animals in southern countries and circumvent deliberately or out of ignorance the yes existing legislation Ve
57. in sows the abortions occur only during the last third of the gestation early abortions are most of the time not noticed domestic male pigs are often asymptomatic chronic carriers This represent a risk factor of marketing of undetected infected pork s in the EU and a risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 yes Wild boars and hares to a lesser extend represent the animal reservoir of the biotype 2 They represent a potential source of infection for the domestic pigs This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic pigs 26 yes Brucellosis is mostly characterized by a slow development This represents a risk factor of non detection of contagious animals and consequently a risk factor for emergence of the disease 27 yes There are contacts between domestic pigs with an outside course and wild boars Direct contact is the most important transmission route in domestic pigs This is a very important risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic pig population 28 yes Wild boars and hares are the reservoir of the bacteria in France there is a seroprevalence of 10 in boars They represent the main source of infection of the domestic pigs This is a very important risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic pig population 29 yes There is an increase in the wild boar population in Europe and the i
58. infectieux 8 Augmentation de l incidence nouveaux cas dans un d autre s pays 9 Persistance de l agent infectieux dans l environnement Slingenbergh 2004 Facteurs li s aux humains activit humaine 10 L gislation police sanitaire Morse 2004 11 Changements dans les proc d s technologiques et Morse 2004 industriels Slingenbergh 2004 12 Probl mes de d tection de l mergence par exemple difficult s de d claration de la maladie par les leveurs faible performance des tests de diagnostic 13 Augmentation des interactions entre les compartiments Webster and Hulse populations animaux 2004 14 Augmentation des interactions entre les populations animales et humaines 15 Croissance d mographique humaine Brown 2004 Morse 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 16 Croissance de la population animale concern e par la maladie 17 Globalisation augmentation des voyages Slingenbergh 2004 18 Globalisation augmentation du tourisme Slingenbergh 2004 19 Globalisation augmentation du commerce Brown 2004 Morse du fait qu il existe des rapports d interd pendance entre les domaines notamment entre la sant humaine la sant animale et l environnement ce qui cr e des interfaces et est l origine du concept One Health 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 20 Globalisation augmentation du transport Brown 2004 Morse 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 21 Globalisation augmentation du terrorisme Brown 2
59. infection of human travellers risk for emergence in the human population 18 Human tourism is increasing This increases the risk for importation of an infected animal or the risk for infection of human yes travellers risk for emergence in the animal population Tourism rural walks favours the contact with dejections of infected rodents and increases the risk for emergence in the human population 19 no 0 The increase in trade does not concern the wild rodents population 20 no 0 The increase in transport does not concern the wild rodents population 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 no 0 Rodents are wild fauna which is not concerned by the production systems No influence of this factor on the risk for emergence 23 no 0 Rodents are wild fauna which is not concerned by the production systems No influence of this factor on the risk for emergence 24 yes The infection is chronic and asymptomatic in wild natural hosts rodents This is a risk factor for emergence absence of clinical signs favours the transmission rate absence of detection of asymptomatic animals 25 yes The animal reservoir is constituted by the wild rodents bank voles campagnols rouss tres brown rat rat surmulot Because it concerns the wild fauna difficult to control and to watch this is a risk factor for emergence 26 There is long incubation period
60. la troisi me question en m me temps qu la deuxi me question Pour les maladies exotiques qui ne sont pas pr sentes l heure actuelle en Belgique Diseases at risk of introduction and dissemination in Belgium il faut consid rer l influence du facteur sur le risque d mergence de la maladie en Belgique Troisi mement colonnes bleues remplir en m me temps que la deuxi me question il vous est demand de quantifier l importance de l influence de chacun de ces facteurs sur l mergence de ces maladies c est dire d estimer la force de la relation entre le facteur et le risque d mergence ou la protection contre l mergence de la maladie animale selon le tableau de scores suivant Le facteur a une influence sur l mergence de facteur de facteur de maladie animale risque protection faible moyenne grande ete tr s grande ee Si vous aviez encod un 0 cela signifie que le facteur n a pas d influence sur l mergence de la maladie et il ne faut donc pas quantifier Points d attention la s lection des r ponses se fait l aide des listes menus d roulants pour vous aider a interpr ter les facteurs de la liste de la litt rature sur les facteurs de risque des maladies mergentes vous est fournie en annexe si n cessaire et ou si applicable vous pouvez justifier ou commenter votre choix par l introducti
61. maladies les suivants la pr sence d un r servoir animal les probl mes de d tection de l mergence les difficult s de contr le de la maladie par la vaccination l extension g ographique de la maladie le portage asymptomatique et l augmentation de l incidence de la maladie dans d autres pays Cette hi rarchisation des facteurs de risque a permis d mettre des recommandations notamment en mati re early warning de vigilance de surveillance de gestion et de lutte contre les maladies animales En ce qui concerne early warning il est recommand de r aliser un monitoring des facteurs de risque d mergence mesurables Une apparition ou une augmentation d incidence de facteurs de risque peut alerter le gestionnaire de risque pr cocement de l augmentation du risque d mergence de maladies animales infectieuses Summary Advice 06 2013 of the Scientific Committee of the FASFC on the risk factors of the potentially re emerging infectious animal diseases The objective of this advice is to identify the risk factors of emergence of infectious animal diseases in Belgium to allow the risk managers to undertake control measures in time For that purpose 34 examples of re emerging or at risk of re emergence infectious animal diseases and 33 risk or protection factors of emergence were selected aiming for the most complete representativeness as possible The effect of these factors on the risk of emerge
62. measures 13 no 0 There is no increase in interactions between the animal compartments concerned by the disease poultry cows pigs Such increase would have no influence of the risk for emergence because the pathogenic strains of C perfringens are host specific and an increase in interaction should not result in a passage of the species barrier Increases in interactions between different poultry populations would have no influence of the risk for emergence of the disease in the poultry populations because the bacteria are already ubiquitous 14 no 0 There is no increase interactions between poultry and humans Such increase would have no influence of the risk for emergence because the pathogenic strains of C perfringens are host specific and an increase in interaction should not result in a passage of the species barrier 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The disease is not concerned by a human demographic growth 16 no 0 There is no growth of the poultry population in Belgium Such an increase would have no influence the risk of emergence because the origin of the pathology is the own intestinal flora of the animal 77 17 Yes 0 Human traveling is increasing The disease is not concerned by an increase in human traveling 18 Yes 0 Huma
63. of the disease 14 There is a proximity between domestic dogs and humans The role of dogs as infection source for humans has been established Yes but this occurs via vectorial bite without needing a direct interaction There are more frequent contact of the citizen with the nature This increases the risk of bite by phlebotomes and the risk for human infection These are risk factors for emergence of the disease in humans but not in animals because humans can not retransmit the disease to animals 15 No 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium A human demographic growth would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population 16 n ypa There is no true increase in the dog population in Belgium An increase in the reservoir animal population would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 17 yes Human traveling is increasing The mobility allows the colonisation by new species of Leishmania This represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease 18 yes ip aga Human tourism is increasing There are imported human cases of leishmaniasis in Belgium due to touristic activities trips This is a risk factor of emergence of the disease in humans but not in the animal populations 19 Yes There is an increase in trade of dogs This represents a risk factor of emergence of new species of Leishmania 20 Yes There is an increase in transport of dogs This represents
64. of the implication of the wild fauna as source of infection 11 yes There have been changes in the industrial processes of pork production surrender of inside breeding and replacement by outside breeding processes mainly in the South of Belgium This constitutes a risk factor for emergence in the domestic pig population because of the possibilities of contacts with wild boars 12 yes There are problems of detection of the emergence unapparent or discrete clinical signs asymptomatic carriage Because the disease is transmissible this represents a risk factor for emergence 13 yes There are increases in interactions between the wild boars and hares and the domestic pigs bred outside see point 2 2 Because of the possibility of transmission by direct contact this represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic pork populations in regions where outside breeding is practiced 14 yes 0 Due to the increase in the boar population there are increases in interactions between boars and humans hunters forest warders personnel of the slaughterhouses butchers veterinarians etc But because humans do not play any role in the epidemiology of the disease do not transmit the infection to animals this has no influence of the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgiu
65. ou de l absence du facteur en imaginent que le facteur existe est pr sent le facteur repr sente t il un facteur de risque d mergence de la maladie chez les animaux avec quantification ou OU au contraire est il un facteur de protection contre l mergence de la maladie chez les animaux avec quantification ou encore n a t il pas d influence sur l mergence de la maladie chez les animaux 0 Le fait de r pondre ind pendamment aux deux questions nous permettra d envisager toutes les possibilit s par d duction et de tirer des conclusions Par exemple si un facteur est pr sent actuellement en Belgique Yes et qu il est un facteur de risque nous devons tre d embl e vigilants concernant la possibilit d mergence de la maladie Par exemple si un facteur est absent actuellement No mais qu il repr senterait un facteur de risque s il tait pr sent nous en d duiront que le jour o ce facteur apparait il faudra tre vigilant quant la possibilit d mergence de la maladie Par exemple si un facteur est pr sent actuellement Yes et s il s agit d un facteur de protection il faudra tre vigilant s il disparaissait Etc 36 Les r sultats de cette tude seront publi s dans un avis du Comit scientifique ainsi que dans une revue scientifique Un tout grand merci d avance de votre collaboration d
66. persistence in the environment is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 10 no There is no legislation sanitary policy for tularemia Measures such as the screening detection of epizooties in hare and wild rodents the regulation of importations of rodents and lagomorphs the protection of the exploitations against intrusion of wild rodents the compulsory declaration of all the suspicions of tularemia in man and in animals etc should protect against the risk for emergence 11 no 0 The disease is not concerned by changes in industrial or technological processes 12 yes There are problems of detection of emergence wild fauna lack of knowledge by breeders by the veterinary and medical world no compulsory declaration These problems of detection represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 yes There are increases in interactions between the animal compartments mainly the wild fauna during the hunting period for example Because the disease is transmissible by direct contact inhalation ingestion etc this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 14 no There is no real increase in interactions between humans and lagomorphs except during the hunting period but because the disease is zoonotic an increase in interaction for example manipulation of the carcasses during the hunting could represent a risk factor of seasonal transmission to man B
67. portage asymptomatique On ne certains sait pas comment les bact ries de la flore intestinale normale toxinotypes A de deviennent pathog nes On suppose que le d veloppement de la C perfringens pathologie ent rotox mie est du a des facteurs nutritionnels sp cifiques de la volaille sont consid r s ici 18 EST atypique petits prions non ruminants Aliments directe faible environnementale ruminants 19 Myopathie atypique inconnue non quid s Inconnue patures pas de preuve de transmission d un agent des quid s infectieux Maladies non pr sentes mergentes ou risque de r mergence en Belgique exotiques et risque d introduction et de diss mination en Belgique maladies potentiellement r 20 Fi vre aphteuse Aphtovirus non Bovins porcs Transmission a rienne 10 km possible de la France vers le Royaume ch vres moutons Uni contact direct urine sperme mati res f cales salive contact indirect virus tr s r sistant dans l environnement ext rieur v hicules personnes en contact avec les animaux etc 21 Peste porcine Asfivirus non Porcs sangliers Contact direct a rosols contact indirect vecteur tiques molles africaine domestiques et sauvages 22 Peste porcine Pestivirus non Porcs sangliers Contact direct a rosols contact indirect classique domestiques et sauvages 25
68. si5e Wajshs uogorpoid 1 9 595592010 janes ul _ pue puue suonseayui 11 101 JUAUIUOIAUS au Ul 9 JO 90093515794 _ 4 amp epen ul eseoigul uonesipeqols yp SH Afojoios _ _ _ _ 519 seurue 2 5 1291009 m Jonasa Lolheluidoea Aq bseosip jo1uoo Anal ay Aq sisauaBoujed Jo 9101 Jo Walqold 10 99A ueu q pednpold 5 5 503 y ul sablieys eseasip SJUALUILIECLUOD SUONIEIAILI 1 Jayjoue Ul auahoujed jo jo 4087 eq sa1sads aly BLEU IS 1 NOY 1911109 seule ul ponad juefe eu zo 1 51 2 uolsueyXg SHIPIIM HT lonnqiysip 1o pue AydesBowsp ul 5 5 WSLINO u UOHeSsI eqo s 5 Uohonpoid 15 Modsued u 95691901 uonesiedos e Agenen onouop et L
69. the pathogenic strains of C perfringens are host specific The origin of the pathology is the own intestinal flora of the animal in a specific flock So there is no influence of a possible passage of the species barrier on the risk of emergence 76 yes 0 The disease is not considered to be zoonotic the strains are host specific the pathogenesis of the disease in humans is totally different from the one in poultry but the possibility exists If the possibility existed in theory this would have no influence on the emergence in the animal population no 0 Clostridium perfringens are commensal bacteria which are already present everywhere in the intestines of the animals the environment So there is no geographical extension of the agent possible However there is a geographical extension of the disease Because the bacteria is already ubiquitous a geographical extension of the disease has no influence on the risk for emergence yes 0 There is an increase in incidence of the disease other countries but this has no influence on the emergence of the disease Belgium because the bacteria are already ubiquitous in the intestines of the animals and in the environment yes 0 The type A is ubiquitous can survive in soil and dust and also in the intestine of animals The persistence the environment has no influence on the risk for emergence of the diseas
70. tudier les facteurs de risque comme indicateurs ind pendamment de l volution pid miologique afin que le gestionnaire de risque puisse utiliser la matrice moyen terme ind pendamment de la situation pid miologique coli 0157 H7 provoque une infection et non une maladie chez les bovins L anaplasmose tait sporadique en Belgique au d but de l tude Cette maladie a volu de mani re end mique depuis lors Diff rents mod les ont t propos s pour classer les facteurs de risque Le mod le PERIAPT concerne les risques mergents dans la cha ne alimentaire le mod le GENERALISE concerne les v nements rares et le mod le de CONVERGENCE concerne les zoonoses r mergentes mod le classe les facteurs de risque potentiels en grands domaines par exemple facteurs cologiques et environnementaux facteurs socio conomiques facteurs biologiques etc au sein desquels les animaux domestiques et sauvages les humains et l environnement jouent un r le Des facteurs de risque sp cifiques d mergence sont contenus dans les domaines Le terme convergence provient lesquels des interfaces sont possibles Les domaines et les facteurs de risque du mod le de convergence de King 2004 ont t modifi s dans le pr sent avis afin de les adapter aux buts de l auto saisine et de pouvoir consid rer des maladies non zoonotiques Les facteurs retenus dans le cadre de cette tude sont galement inspir s de
71. y auront collabor Si cela est possible pour vous nous souhaiterions recevoir vos r sultats pour le 1 juin 2009 Si vous le d sirez une copie papier du document Excel peut vous tre envoy e par voie postale afin de vous permettre de r aliser l exercice plus facilement Si vous d sirez des informations suppl mentaires n h sitez pas contacter soit Dr Sabine Cardoen sabine cardoen afsca be 02 211 87 01 soit Dr Xavier Huffel xavier vanhuffel favv be 02 211 87 20 Les membres du groupe de travail vous remercient d avance de votre disponibilit Prof E Thiry Dr K Dierick Prof D Berkvens Dr H Imberechts Prof R Ducatelle Prof C Saegerman Dr J Dewulf Dr T van den berg Dr P Heinen Dr X Van Huffel et Dr S Cardoen Bibliographie King L J Maladies zoonotiques mergentes et r mergentes d fis et opportunit s 72 session g n rale de l Organisation mondiale de la Sant animale Comit international Paris 23 28 mai 2004 King L J Emerging zoonoses and pathogens of public health concern Scientific and Technical Review of the OIE Volume 23 2 August 2004 Toma et Thiry E Qu est ce qu une maladie mergente Epidemiol Et sant anim 2003 44 1 11 Vorou R M Papavassiliou V G and Tsiodras S Emerging zoonoses and vector borne infections affecting humans in Europe Epidemiol Infect 2007 135 1231 4 33 Annexe 5 Sch ma des questions de la pha
72. 004 22 Syst mes de production intensifs Webster and Hulse 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 23 Syst mes de production extensifs Facteurs li s aux animaux 24 Porteurs asymptomatiques sans signes cliniques 25 R servoir animal 26 Longue p riode d incubation chez l animal 27 Contacts entre les animaux domestiques et la faune sauvage Bengis et al 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 28 R le pid miologique de la faune sauvage Bengis et al 2004 29 Augmentation de la d mographie et ou de la distribution de la Bengis et al 2004 faune sauvage Enria Levis 2004 Facteurs dus des changements environnementaux 30 Changements climatiques et m t orologiques Brown 2004 de La Rocque et al 2008 Gerdes 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 31 Changements dans les cosyst mes produits par l homme Morse 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 32 Urbanisation Slingenbergh 2004 33 Pr sence de vecteur Chevalier et al 2004 Slingenbergh 2004 Etape 3 Enqu te Delphi Une enqu te a t r alis e aupr s d experts belges afin d analyser l influence des facteurs de risque ou de protection s lectionn s sur les diff rents exemples de maladie La premi re phase de l enqu te visait interroger les experts individuellement La seconde phase avait pour objectif la validation par ces m mes experts d une proposition de consensus bas sur les r ponses de la premi re phase e Phase 1
73. 05 2010 du Comit scientifique Nouvelle politique de surveillance des maladies animales partie bovins autres matrices petits ruminants et porcs dossier Sci Com 2009 25bis URL http www favvatsca fgov be comitescientifique avis _ documents AVIS05 2010 FR DOSSIER2009 25bis pdf Avis 10 2010 du Comit scientifique Nouvelle politique de surveillance des maladies animales partie volailles et chevaux dossier Sci Com 2009 25ter URL http www favvafsca fgov be comitescientifique avis _ documents AVIS10 2010 DOSSIER2009 25ter pdf Avis 12 2010 du Comit scientifique Projet d arr t royal relatif a la lutte contre la maladie d Aujeszky dossier Sci Com 2009 34 URL http www favv afsca fgov be comitescientifique avis _ documents avis12 2010 FR DOSSIER2009 34 pdf Avis 20 2012 du Comit scientifique Inventaire et analyse des activit s de surveillance pid miologique des maladies animales et zoonotiques chez les animaux et dans les denr es alimentaires dossier Sci Com 2010 16 auto saisine URL htip www favv afsca fgov be comitescientifique avis documents AVIS20 2012 FR DOSSIER2010 16 sansannexes pdf Bengis R G Leighton F A Fischer J R Artois M Morner T and Tate C M The role of wildlife in emerging and re emergong zoonoses Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 497 511 Brochure du Comit scientifique de l AFSCA sur les maladies animales mergentes Brochure informative l
74. 111 yes There is no vaccine If no vaccination no protection and higher risk of emergence yes There is a possibility of transmission to other species but this is only proven under experimental conditions for the L type humanized mice monkeys There is a possibility after interspecific passage to generate classical BSE gt possibility of re emergence of classical BSE The possibility to change the host spectrum is a risk factor for emergence yes There are indications that the L type could be potentially transmissible to humans and be more virulent that the classical type Humans do not transmit infection dead end host but there is the theory about recycling of human cadavers from the Ganges into MBM as possible vector and recently theoretical airborn transmission is shown to be very efficacious So the possibility of passage to humans is a risk factor for emergence in animals no 0 There are cases in different European countries but we can not speak about a real geographical expansion Since the transmission of the disease is food borne it has no influence on the risk for emergence The risk concerns the importations see below yes There are cases in several European countries and also in non European countries Japan USA This is only a risk factor in case of importation of infected animals or infected animal products meat and bone meal yes The persistence in the enviro
75. 29 no There is no increase in the wild fauna population in Belgium Because wild animal can retransmit the disease an increase would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 30 Yes There are climatic and meteorological changes The climatic changes warming constitute an important risk factor for geographical extension of the disease towards temperated regions via modifications in the distribution of the vectors extension towards the North via an increase in the density of vectors lenghtening of the activity period with the increase in temperature and via an increase in the number of infected vectors Thanks to the increase in temperature the phlebotomes can overwinter at larvae stadia This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 31 no Natural and human induced changes in the ecosystems for ex deforestation can lead to modifications in the range and density of the vectors and the reservoirs and represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease But such changes in ecosystems do not occur at present in Belgium 32 Yes There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium peri urbanisation This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in dogs because it increases the contacts between dogs and vectors 33 Yes The implicated phlebotomes are present in Belgium Once infected the phlebotome remains infected all the life during months
76. Belgium Undetected asymptomatic animals or animals which recover rapidly and remain carrier during a long period until 2 years are capable to retransmit the infection These animals represent a no major source of infection In Europe the clinically unapparent chronic form of the disease is most frequent If the disease was introduced in Belgium these asymptomatic carriers would be a very important risk factor for dissemination of the disease between herds and of emergence 25 no There are currently no animal reservoirs in Belgium In the world endemic zones the chronic carriers are responsible for the 99 insidious maintenance of the disease in the populations and these reservoir animals represent an important risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 yes yppa The incubation period during which the animal is already infectious can be very long between 1and 3 months sometimes more until 7 months Because these animals are not detected this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 27 There are contacts between the domestic bovines and the wild fauna but because the wildlife does not play any epidemiological yes 0 role host specificity of the mycoplasm which does not infect other animal species this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 28 no 0 The wild fauna is not sensitive to the mycoplasm and has no influence of the risk for emer
77. COMITE SCIENTIFIQUE DE L AGENCE FEDERALE POUR LA SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE AVIS 06 2013 Concerne Facteurs de risque des maladies animales infectieuses potentiellement r mergentes dossier Sci Com 2006 48 auto saisine Avis approuv par le Comit scientifique le 22 02 2013 R sum Le but de cet avis auto saisine est d identifier les facteurs de risque d 6mergence des maladies animales infectieuses en Belgique afin de permettre aux gestionnaires de risque d entreprendre des actions dans les temps Pour ce faire 34 exemples de maladies animales infectieuses r mergentes ou a risque de r mergence ainsi que 33 facteurs de risque ou de protection de l mergence ont t s lectionn s de mani re a assurer une repr sentativit la plus compl te possible de ceux ci L effet de ces facteurs sur le risque d mergence des 34 maladies animales a t analys par le biais d une enqu te Delphi r alis e aupr s de 50 experts L tude a permis de hi rarchiser les facteurs de risque par ordre d importance de leur influence sur l mergence de groupes de maladies animales infectieuses par exemple maladies exotiques maladies zoonotiques maladies transmissibles par l alimentation ainsi que de mani re globale pour l ensemble des maladies Les six facteurs de risque qui ont le plus d influence sur le risque d 6mergence des maladies animales sont en consid rant l ensemble des
78. The vectorial activity is concentrated in the summer perio The vectors move below 1 km from the larvae form situated mainly near the herbivore farms The presence of the vector is an important risk factor of emergence of the disease Rage chez la chauve souris Lyssavirus 1 et 2 europ ens Bengis et al 2004 Cliquet and Picard Meyer 2004 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 Lyssaviruses are RNA viruses which typically have a high mutation rate 4 new genotypes have been recently isolated in bats yes Asia and in East Europe A mutation that changes the disease characteristics in bats toward more agression might facilitate transmission the transmission to humans or to other anial species Genetic variability is a risk factor for emergence 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis Bats are protected species and especially the insectivorous European species are difficult to keep in captivity For these reasons there are almost no experimental infection studies in bats and there is limited yes knowledge on the behaviour of these lyssaviruses in their reservoir host the bat Studies are necessary to study the ecology of bats and and the viral transmission between bats The lack of knowledge in pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 3 Aid Currently there is no observed change in the pathogenesis Transmissio
79. _ uewny jew JOJIIA JO 990195914 H 1 sisauaboujed aBueys s ijAnunos jo Jo 4 H _ s ss spud jensnpul He m e aen gaseau 0105 POI ponad 2 _ 14 WISIINO 95091201 0051 Honpod acisuayxy eSkaJoul 5120 y ay Jo 92092515194 _ 4 lapen aseaJoul uolesip ol syu wyeduop uaa m q SUOIJ9BISJUI Ul ases pU _ Aq poonpold suiajsAsooa ay saueyg 1590 jo 4927 seeds ou oz 1 1415504 asbasip eu Aq uohendod ay yo TN appi pue sewe NSeWOp Laamad 32030029 ASIP Jo pue AujcesHoulap MAU SOUSPIOU asesu wepidy DT au jo uonnquysip jeotydesboeb ul uoIsue xy NOY 19118 ANDOU 1 1 4 umob WUSHO U9 95891901 51 40 suewny woi wnnoads iso abueyo 0 Ayyiqissog ul sabueyD wass UOH9npoid 10 yeaiBojouype ul ue Uda maq asesu 9 roa uoeurquioged Aiiqeuea ontug
80. a risk factor of emergence of new species of Leishmania 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 No 0 The disease is not concerned by the production systems 23 No 0 The disease is not concerned by the production systems 24 Yes The dogs do not present clinical signs As a consequence they are not treated and can retransmit the disease This represents risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 Dogs are the main animal reservoirs but there is also a high number of implicated sylvatic and domectic animal species 62 yes different mammals foxes wolves renards loups jackals but not in Belgium Cats exceptionally This represents a risk factor of emergence of the disease 26 Ves oppg The long incubation period without clinical signs allows the transmission of the disease via the phlebotomes This constitutes a risk factor of emergence of the disease 27 yes There are numerous susceptible sylvatic mammals The possibility of contacts between domestic dogs and cats and these sylvatic 64 mammals favours the transmission of the disease This represents a risk factor of emergence of the disease in the animal population 28 yes There are numerous susceptible wild mammals able to transmit the infection to the domestic animals and humans via the phlebotomes This represents a risk factor of emergence of the disease
81. adies animales Voici quelques facteurs de risque qui pourraient tre mesur s apparition ou augmentation dans le cadre d un monitoring Extension de la distribution g ographique des agents infectieux via l analyse de rapports internationaux ou via la participation a des r seaux internationaux SCOFCAH OIE ADNS o Augmentation d incidence des nouveaux cas de maladies dans les autres pays via l analyse de rapports internationaux d j en cours au niveau de la CE ou via la participation des r seaux internationaux OIE ADNS Augmentation du taux d importation d animaux vivants et ou de produits animaux partir de pays tiers non indemnes selon l esp ce animale o Evolution de la d mographie des esp ces animales sauvages en Belgique Par d mographie il est sous entendu la densit des populations animales sauvages li e la distribution g ographique de ces populations L observation d une augmentation de la d mographie d une esp ce sauvage pourrait amener le gestionnaire de risque surveiller plus particuli rement les maladies de cette esp ce o Monitoring entomologique des vecteurs de maladies suivi des populations et surveillance de l infection par des arbovirus pour lesquels cela n existe pas encore ex certaines esp ces de moustiques tiques Cette liste est donn e titre d exemple Une tude de faisabilit de cette recommandation d op rer un monitoring d
82. agmentation short cut etc the humidity favor the populations of ticks These risk factors for emergence 32 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium The urbanization is a protection factor against infection of humans and domestic Yes 0 animals dogs because of the less frequent possibilities of contact with the ticks Attention urbanization in the suburbs increase the possibilities of contact with the ticks Urbanization has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease because humans are accidental hosts 33 Yes The vector ticks Ixodes ricinus is present in Belgium and this is the main risk factor for emergence of the disease Fi vre catarrhale ovine Orbivirus 8 autres serotypes Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 There exists a genetic variability in the RNA viruses associated with a risk for reassortment Other serotypes than serotype 8 are yes currently absent in Belgium but are prevalent in neighbouring countries France for ex Genetic drift and shift may increase but also decrease the virulence of the disease Serotype alone does not determine the virulence of individual field strains of BTV 2 yes There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis of the disease for the several serotypes This lack of knowledge is a risk factor for emergence lack of detection for example 3 There have been ch
83. and the animals can transmit the 98 infection to many animals before being detected This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 27 r There are contacts between cattle and the wild fauna This represent a risk factor of infection of cattle from the wild fauna and of yes the wild fauna from cattle and a risk factor for emergence 28 The wild fauna infected badgers being a wild reservoir of the disease plays an epidemiological role in the maintenance of the bie bovine tuberculosis and in complicating the complete eradication of the disease This is a risk factor for emergence 29 yes is an increase the number of badgers and because of its epidemiological role this is a risk factor for emergence of the isease 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 31 yes mae There are changes in the ecosystems produced by man In relation to their implication with the wild fauna this can be a risk factor for emergence of the disease 32 yes There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium and this is a risk factor for emergence mechanism 33 no 0 Bovine tuberculosis is not a vectorial disease Tular mie Francisella tularen Sis Bengis et al 2004 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 There are several strains w
84. anges in pathogenesis namely concerning serotype 8 Changes in pathogenesis can affect the intensity of yes clinical signs in some sensitive animal species namely cattle or induce new features on transplacental infections This is also possible for other serotypes Changes in pathogenesis are a risk factor for emergence 4 In Belgium vaccination against BTV8 came too late and most susceptible animals were already infected by the natural way Duration of protection after vaccination is not exactly known but limited in time Natural infection however would give lifelong yes immunity Concerning other emergent serotypes the unavailability of specific vaccines is a risk factor Moreover we cannot anticipate the emergent serovar and we cannot prevently vaccine the animals again all serotypes Difficulties related to the vaccination represent a risk factor for emergence of viral diseases 5 Not only ruminants may be infected many carnivores and some rodents may also be infected But since their role in the yes 0 epidemiology of the disease seems to be insignificant the change of the host spectrum has no influence on the risk of emergence of the disease 6 no 0 The disease is not zoonotic There is no influence of this factor on the risk for emergence 7 yes The several serotypes of Bluetongue viruses can spread geographically This is a risk factor for emergence of new strains Belgium 8 In other countries neighbourin
85. ans 17 Extension in geographical distribution of the agent 1 8 Increase in incidence new cases in another country ies 1 9 Persistance of the agent in the environment 2 Factors related to human activity 2 1 Legislation sanitary policy 2 2 Change in technological or industrial processes Problem of detection of emergence e g 2 3 difficult declaration of the disease by farmers weak performance of diagnostic tests Increase in interactions between animal compartments populations Increase in interactions between animal and human populations 2 6 Human demographic growth Growth of the animal population concerned by the disease 2 8 Globalisation increase in travel 2 4 2 9 Globalisation increase in tourism 2 10 Globalisation increase in trade 2 11 Globalisation increase in transport 2 12 Globalisation increase in terrorism 28 Annexe 3 D tail de la r partition des experts en fonction des exemples de maladies s lectionn es Les experts mentionn s ont tous particip la premi re phase de l enqu te Delphi Les experts ayant galement particip la deuxi me phase sont indiqu s en gras L emplacement des croix dans le tableau indique les maladies trait es par les experts WLOL NO SANA Lo 3 Maladies x nb d gs3 s nb soyjeydoouz
86. appara tre Facteur de risque facteur associ l augmentation de la probabilit d apparition ou de d veloppement d une maladie Facteur de protection facteur associ la r duction de la probabilit d apparition ou de d veloppement d une maladie R servoir animal esp ce animale permettant la survie d agents pathog nes et repr sentant une source importante d agents pathog nes infectieux transmissibles d autres animaux Vu les discussions lors des r unions de groupe de travail des 17 novembre 2006 13 f vrier 2007 2 mai 2007 30 ao t 2012 et 4 janvier 2013 et les discussions durant la s ance pl ni re du 22 02 2013 le Comit scientifique met l avis suivant 2 M thodologie Etape 1 Etablissement d une liste d exemples de maladies animales r mergentes ou risque de r mergence et classement selon leur situation pid miologique Le Comit scientifique a choisi de ne pas travailler sur base d une liste exhaustive de maladies animales infectieuses r mergentes ou risque de r mergence mais sur base d une liste d exemples de maladies animales Ces exemples ont t s lectionn s de mani re tre repr sentatifs de l ensemble des maladies animales et de leurs propri t s biologiques interactions h te agent pathog ne sur base des diff rents types d agents tiologiques bact ries virus parasites prions de diff rentes situations pid miologiq
87. are forest rodents and small mammals Because this reservoir is wildlife the animal reservoir is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 aa 0 There is no especially long incubation period for the disease long incubation period would have no influence on the risk for emergence because tick bites do not depend on the presence of clinical signs 27 yes There are possibilities of contacts between cattle and wildlife small mammals of the wild fauna This is a risk factor for transmission of the disease and of emergence 28 yes Wildlife ticks and wild small ruminants has an important epidemiological role because they are the animal reservoir This is a risk factor for emergence because control of wildlife is difficult 29 The abundance of forest big vertebrates roe deer and of the small mammals reservoir xild rodents favours the ticks pullulation This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 30 n There are climatic and meteorological changes Climatic changes warming increase the tick populations and their geographical yes H repartition This is a risk factor for emergence 31 Changes in the eco landscaped structure of the forests ex North of America favours the ticks pullulation This would represent a risk factor for emergence but such changes in ecosystems do not exist in Belgium 32 yes aM There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Urbanisation is a risk factor because it incr
88. ation sector in expansion in Belgium An increase constitutes a weak risk factor for emergence 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing but this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the cattle population 18 yes 0 Human tourism is increasing but this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the cattle population 19 yes There is an increase in animal trade This is a risk factor through the risk for importation of infected animals 20 yes ypa There is an increase in animal transports This increases the risk for transport of infected animals or infected animal products and the risk for emergence 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 yes There are intensive production systems for ruminants in Belgium This constitutes a risk factor for emergence due to the use of 79 industrial feed see origin of BSE and to the transmission via contaminated soil 23 n There are extensive production systems for ruminants in Belgium Extensive production with grazing and contacts between yes animals favour certain TSE such as scrapie for example This is a weak risk factor for emergence 24 yes ypa Ruminants infected by an atypical TSE do never develop the typical symptomatology This increases the risk for non detection and the risk for emergence of the dis
89. ation are capable to transmit the disease via direct contact without showing any clinical sign 25 Since rabies is currently eradicated in Belgium there are no animal reservoirs The animal reservoir should be dogs and foxes If no infected foxes or dogs were present in Belgium thus if there was an animal reservoir it should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 i There is a long incubation period in animals Since animals in incubation are capable to transmit the virus by direct contact without yes ara i showing clinical signs the long incubation period is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 27 yes yg There are contacts between wild foxes or wild animal species and domestic cattle or dogs This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic animal population 28 yes The wild fauna foxes and raccoons with uncertain origin plays an epidemiological role reservoir concerning rabies This is a risk factor for emergence 29 There is an increase in the foxes population in Belgium Foxes and raccoon dogs in Eastern Europe are still reservoirs of the virus yes Illegal import of these species especially raccoon dogs may pose a risk for reintroduction Raccoon dogs have been spotted Belgian fauna but their origin is uncertain They are almost never submitted for rabies surveillance This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 30 yes 0 There a
90. ation europ enne l issue d valuations de risque a l importation Pour le Comit scientifique Prof Em Dr Pharm C Van Peteghem S Pr sident Bruxelles le 07 03 2013 18 R f rences Abalos P And Retamal P La tuberculose une zoonose r mergente Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 583 94 Angulo F J Nunnery J A and Bair H D Antimicrobial resistance in zoonotic enteric pathogens Rev sci tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 485 96 Avis 22 2008 du Comit scientifique Classement des zoonoses transmises par les denr es alimentaires dossier Sci auto saisine 2005 54 URL htip www favv afsca fgov be comitescientifique avis _documents AVIS22 2008 FR DOSSIER2005 54 pdf Avis 26 2009 du Comit scientifique Evaluation de l all gement de la surveillance de la brucellose et de la leucose bovines et propositions pour un nouveau programme de surveillance d autres maladies bovines dossier Sci Com 2009 25 URL http Awww favvafsca fgov be comitescientifique avis _documents AVISRAPIDE26 2009 FR DOSSIER2009 25 pdf Avis 26 2009 du Comit scientifique addendum Evaluation de l all gement de la surveillance de la brucellose et de la leucose bovines et propositions pour un nouveau programme de surveillance d autres maladies bovines dossier Sci Com 2009 25 URL http www favv afsca fgov be comitescientifique avis _documents Addendumavisrapide26 2009 _DOSSIER2009_25 pdf Avis
91. ations of the vector 31 yes For example in the USA the emergence of the Lyme disease resulted from the combined action of several factors reforestation which increased the density of the cervidae preferred host of the ticks and ticks populations the temperature and the movement of the humans in these zones suburbs which increases the risk for transmission to the humans There are similar changes in the ecosystems produced by man in Belgium The increase in the density of the cervidae and ticks populations is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 32 yes There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Urbanisation is associated to more frequent contact between men and wild fauna as foxes in towns because urbanisation destroy encroach the habitat of wild fauna Urbanization in the suburbs can increase the possibilities of contact with the ticks Urbanisation is a risk factor However urbanization is also a protection factor against infection of humans and domestic animals dogs because of the less frequent possibilities of contact with the ticks 33 yes ppp The vector ticks Ixodes ricinus is present in Belgium and this is the main risk factor for emergence of the disease Fievre Q Coxiella burnetii Factor Presence yes absence no Impact risk protection no effect Scientific justification yes There are several strains of C burnetii with differen
92. attention des v t rinaires Octobre 2010 URL http Avww favv afsca fgov be publicationsthematiques documents 2010 11 23 MAE VT Fr S pdf Brown Emerging zoonoses and pathogens of public health significance an overview Rev sci tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 435 42 Chevalier V de la Rocque S Baldet T Vial L and Goger F Epidemiological processes involved in the emergence of vector borne diseases West Nile fever Rift Valley fever Japanese encephalitis and Crimean Congo haemorragic fever Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 535 55 19 Cliquet F and Picard Meyer E Rabies and rabies related viruses a modern perspective on an ancient disease Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 625 42 de La Rocque S Hendrickx G and Morand S Climate change impact on the epidemiology and control of animal diseases Rev sci tech Off Int Epiz 2008 27 2 Dujardin J C Risk factors in the spread of leishmaniases towards integrated monitoring Trends in Parasitology 2006 22 1 4 6 EFSA 2009 Scientific Opinion on Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease EFSA Journal 2009 7 12 1418 URL http Awww efsa europa eu fr scdocs doc 1418 padf Enria D A M and Levis S C Z Zoonoses virales mergentes les infections a hantavirus Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 595 611 Gallego M Emerging parasitic zoonoses leishmaniosis Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 661 76 Ge
93. atypical strains 78 This can represent a risk factor for emergence 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis due to the weak number of observed cases to the difficulty to realise yes ae experiments The lack of knowledge of pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence 3 yes The atypical TSE present different characteristics than the classical TSE A modification in their pathogenicity could modify the epidemiology of the disease and favor emergence 4 yes There is no vaccine If no vaccination no protection and higher risk of emergence 5 yes There is a possibility of transmission between the ruminant species It is a risk factor for emergence 6 pe 0 Atypical scrapie is considered as being not zoonotic Even if the disease was transmissible to humans this should not have any influence on the risk for emergence because humans should be dead end hosts and should not retransmit the disease 7 yes There is an extention in the geographical distribution of the agent Since a geographical extension reveals an extension of the contamination via the animal of via contaminated matters from the animal this represents a risk factor for emergence 8 yes There is an increase in incidence of the disease in other countries An increase incidence in other countries increases the risk for emergence in Belgium due to the
94. augmentation du commerce Sous cat gories facteur de risque du Recommandations Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique intracommunautaire Liste de pays risque extracommunautaire contr le aux fronti res PIFs ports a roports R valuer la l gislation europ enne l issue d valuations de risque a l importation Globalisation augmentation du transport facteur de risque Sous cat gories du Recommandations Mesure concr te gestion de Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique intracommunautaire Extracommunautaire contr le aux fronti res PIFs ports a roports certificats Croissance population animale concern e maladie Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Faune sauvage Gestion des populations Animaux bios curit Surveillance des maladies de ces domestiques populations 134 Augmentation de la d mographie et ou de la distribution de la faune sauvage Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concrete de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique D mographie Gestion des populations distribution Persistance de l agent infectieux dans l environnement
95. aveling is increasing Movements of infected dogs via travels tourism transport and trade increase the risk of yes introduction of the disease in the country 18 yes Human tourism is increasing Movements of infected dogs via travels tourism transport and trade increase the risk of introduction 114 of the disease in the country 19 yes aM There is an increase in trade of dogs Movements of infected dogs via travels tourism transport and trade increase the risk of introduction of the disease in the country 20 yes There is an increase in transport of dogs Movements of infected dogs via travels tourism transport and trade increase the risk of introduction of the disease in the country 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 no 0 Carnivores are not concerned by the production systems for food animals 23 no 0 Carnivores are not concerned by the production systems for food animals 24 yes The infection be asypmtomatic If not detected and not treated the risk of retransmission of the disease is increased This represents a risk factor for emergence 29 yes domestic and wild canids cats 26 There is a long incubation period during which the animals can be infected without being detected this is a risk factor for yes emergence
96. aveling is increasing This could have an influence on the risk for infection of humans infection in a country with a high prevalence This is also a risk factor of emergence for the animal population via importation of ticks in luggages and via importation of new strains of Borrelia 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence in humans activities in forests infection in a country with a high prevalence and in domestic animals dogs which accompany their master 19 yes There is an increase in general trade This is a risk factor via importation of ticks with other products in new countries and via importation of new strains of Borrelia 20 yes There is an increase in general transports This is a risk factor via importation of ticks with other products in new countries and via importation of new strains of Borrelia 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease yes There are intensive production systems of production animals cows and horses Intensive production systems allow to reduce contacts with ticks and therefore can protect these production animal against infection 23 yes There are extensive production systems of production animals bovines and horses Extensive production systems allow contact with ticks and is a risk factor of infection of these production animal 24 yes Th
97. barrier and this is a protection factor against emergence A passage of the species barrier infection via the respiratory way would represent a risk factor for emergence 6 no 0 The disease is not transmissible to humans 7 yes There is an extension of geographical distribution This is a risk factor for emergence 8 An increase in incidence is observed since several years associated with an increase in animal movements and transport of yes re ae sperm This is a risk factor for emergence because it increases the risk for infection 9 Ho 0 There is no persistence of the virus in the environment According to the transmission pathways a persistence in the environment should not be a risk factor for emergence 10 yes There is a control at importation of stallions certificates This is a protection factor against emergence 11 no 0 This disease is not concerned by this factor 12 yes ypa Due to the chronic asymptomatic carriage there are difficulties of detection of the disease which represents a risk factor for viral dissemination The difficulty of detection is a risk factor for emergence 13 yes yg There is an increase in interactions between horse populations because horses travel more and more internationally races jumpings etc An increase in interactions between horses population represent a a risk factor for emergence 14 oe 0 There is no increase in interactions between horses
98. cal changes No influence on the risk of emergence 31 no 0 No influence of possible changes in ecosystems 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium No influence of urbanisation on the risk for emergence 33 no Non vectorial disease However CWD can apparently be transmitted by fomites Pleuropneumonie contagieuse bovine Mycoplasma mycoides subsp mycoides variant Small Colony Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 Several mycoplasms of which Mycoplasma mycoides subsp mycoides variant Small Colony show modifications of the surface yes antigens antigenic variation variation in diverse surface proteins due to genetic modifications This genetic variability is a risk factor for emergence of new types 2 yes The pathogenesis of the mycoplasms has been intensively studied the last 20 years but there are still numerous remaining knowledge gaps This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 3 ae Currently there are no changes in the pathogenesis of the disease If there were changes in the pathogenesis these would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 4 There are problems associated with the vaccination there is an attenuated live vaccine in Africa available but the efficiency of yes these vaccines against the European strains is doubtful the vaccination protects only a
99. cally have a high mutation rate But currently we do not observe a genetic variability in no 0 this Lyssavirus genotype 1 If there was a genetic variability this should not increase the risk for emergence because classical rabies is already asssociated with an agressive behaviour contrary to the bat rabies 2 Ad There is no lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis of rabies in carnivores A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 Currently there is no change in the pathogenesis of the disease A change in the pathogenesis represents always a risk factor for no emergence In this case the influence is weak because the virus is already associated with an agressive behaviour of the animals allowing the transmission of the disease 4 There no difficulties to control the disease by vaccination which is a high protection factor against the emergence of the disease Difficulties to control the disease by vaccination should represent a high risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 The virus can already infect naturally all the mammal species The host spectrum is already very large There are no relevant no possibilities to increase the host spectrum compared to the current situation The faculty of the virus to infect additional species should even so represent a little risk factor for emergence 6 0 Animals can transmit the infection to
100. ce yes of the disease in this animal population 19 ann Bats are not concerned by trade This factor has no influence on the risk for emergence Note that in 1999 an infected bat no 0 transited through Belgium from Africa towards France 20 io 0 Bats are not concerned by transport This factor has no influence on the risk for emergence Note that in 1999 an infected bat transited through Belgium from Africa towards France 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 no 0 Bats are wild fauna which is not concerned by the production systems No influence of this factor on the risk for emergence 23 no 0 Bats are wild fauna which is not concerned by the production systems No influence of this factor the risk for emergence 24 yes There are asymptomatic infected bats This is a risk factor for emergence because asymptomatic animals can transmit the disease without being detected yes The animal reservoir is the wild bats population Since wild life is difficult to control watch this is a risk factor for emergence 26 yes Infections by Lyssaviruses are characterised by a long incubation period long incubation period allows the viral transmission without being detected which increases the risk for emergence of the disease 27 There are contacts between bats and sensible animal species Since the passage of the species barrier is possible this yes
101. cies barrier increases the risk for establishment of the disease in an uncommon animal species and is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in a new animal species yes 0 The disease is zoonotic but humans do not retransmit the disease to the animal populations The zoonotic character of the disease has no influence of the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal populations no Because the disease is already present in Belgium in France etc there is no true geographical expansion A geographical expansion is always a risk factor for emergence The sporadic presence of the disease is a risk factor for emergence yes There have been several outbreaks in humans the last years in neighbouring countries For example there has been an outbreak with more than 500 human cases in Sweden in 2003 there is a general increase in outbreaks in Europe undetermined cause there are 20 to 70 human cases per year in France etc If they correspond to a change in the pathogenesis or to an increased presence of the bacteria these increases in incidence in neighbouring countries could represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in Belgium yes The environment is contaminated essentially by dejections of rodents and the bacteria can persist several months at temperatures below 0 C in water sludge or on plants and a few days at temperatures above 5 C Because of the possibility of infection by inhalation this
102. cking at present 26 n The incubation period is very long gt 8 years rendering the early detection of the disease impossible This can be a risk factor for yes n emergence in case of recycling of products from infected incubating animals 27 There are possibilities of contacts between domestic cattle and wildlife Pathogenesis and transmission of Atypical BSE is largely yes unknown If lymphoreticular system would be more involved like in Classical scrapie or CWD then direct and indirect contact could be a risk factor and also the carnivorous feeding of contaminated MBM 28 no 0 The wildlife has no known epidemiological role in the risk for emergence 29 no 0 No influence of a possibly increase in demography or distribution of the wildlife 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes No influence on the risk of emergence 31 no 0 No influence of possible changes in ecosystems 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium No influence of urbanisation on the risk for emergence 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease Dirofilariose Dirofilaria Mas Coma et al 2008 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification FIS yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability would have no influence on the risk for emergence of th
103. d mergence de la maladie en question Si oui il s agit d un facteur de risque d mergence de la maladie encodage d un dans certains cas il peut ne pas avoir d effet sur l mergence de la maladie question encodage d un 0 Pour r pondre cette question il tait n cessaire de consid rer la d finition d mergence au sens large du terme Par exemple pour les maladies exotiques qui ne sont pas pr sentes l heure actuelle en Belgique il fallait consid rer l influence du facteur sur le risque d mergence introduction et diss mination de la maladie en Belgique Question 3 Quantifiez l importance de l influence de chacun de ces facteurs sur l mergence des maladies selon le tableau de scores suivant Le facteur a une influence sur l mergence de facteur facteur de maladie animale risque protection faible grande tr s grande ce Si un 0 avait t encod cela signifiait que le facteur n avait pas d influence sur l mergence de la maladie et il n tait pas n cessaire de quantifier Un sch ma du questionnaire donn aux experts est pr sent l annexe 5 10 La premi re question pr sence absence se rapportait la Belgique La deuxi me question facteur de risque ou non tait purement th orique Les experts devaient r pondre aux deux questions de mani re in
104. d pendante l une de l autre de mani re ce que ceux ci vitent d associer pr sence avec facteur de risque ou absence avec facteur de protection Par exemple un vecteur peut tre absent de la Belgique l heure actuelle mais repr sente tout de m me un facteur de risque si la maladie consid r e est une maladie vectorielle L analyse de la combinaison des r ponses aux deux questions devait permettre d extrapoler la notion th orique la situation belge et de d gager des conclusions et recommandations propres la Belgique En d autres mots le fait de r pondre ind pendamment aux deux questions visait permettre d envisager toutes les possibilit s par d duction et de tirer des conclusions Les r ponses individuelles des experts ont t compar es L analyse des r ponses a la premi re question s est d roul e comme suit le choix de la majorit des experts a t consid r par le groupe de travail en tenant compte galement d arguments scientifiques provenant de la litt rature scientifique si n cessaire absence de majorit r ponses r sultant clairement d un probl me d interpr tation etc L analyse des r ponses la seconde question s est d roul e comme suit Le choix de la majorit des experts a t consid r par le groupe de travail en tenant compte galement d arguments scientifiques provenant de la litt rature scientifique si n cessaire absence de majorit r p
105. disease Such measure would have no influence on the risk for emergence 38 because the disease is tick borne and ticks are difficult to control 11 No 0 The disease is not concerned by the changes in the technological or industrial processes 12 The lack of mandatory declaration might delay the detection of emergence There can exist difficulties of diagnostic in non Yes endemic regions difficulties of detection A lack of detection of the presence of the disease represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 yes There are increases in interactions between cattle and ticks whose population increases and expand This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 14 0 There no increases in contacts between humans and cattle An increase in contacts would have no influence of the risk for emergence because contacts are not necessary for the transmission of this tick borne infection 15 0 ee no significant demographic growth in Belgium The emergence of the disease is not influenced by a human demographic growth 16 11008 is no growth of the cattle population in Belgium An increase would represent little risk factor for emergence of the isease 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing but this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the bovine population 18 yes 0 Human tourism is increasi
106. e 13 io yg There is no specially increase in interactions between bats populations and other animal populations but favourising contacts between bats and other animal species increases the risk for transmission and of emergence in other species 14 Bat conservationists are at highest risk for being contaminated by bats Several groups are active in Belgium with growing yes 0 numbers of members Disappearance of natural biotopes abandonned buildings forrests may force bat colonies to move nearer to human dwellings Since men do not retransmit the infection dead end host the increase in interactions between humans and animals has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal population 15 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The emergence of the disease is not concerned by a demographic growth because humans are dead end hosts 16 ae aM There is no growth of the bat species population which is the most concerned Eptesicus serotinus A growth should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in this animal population 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing but bats are not concerned by human travels No influence of this factor on the risk for emergence 66 of the disease in this animal population 18 ann Human tourism is increasing but bats are not concerned by human tourism No influence of this factor on the risk for emergen
107. e This constitutes a risk factor for emergence yes The last years the genome of the bacteria has been sequenced animal models and vaccines have been developed etc However despite a good knowledge of the bacteria the pathogenesis in the several hosts is less known true virulence factors intervention of the immune response links with histocompatibility factors etc The lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence yes The genetic variability can be responsible for changes in the pathogenesis specially through changes in the surface antigens This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease yes There are difficulties to control the disease by vaccination The human vaccine in the USA is not active against the European strains of the bacteria and the vaccine was redrawn from the market because of secondary effects There is a vaccine for dogs available in France but vaccination is little practiced contrary to Switzerland Austria Germany and the vaccine is not active against all the Borrelia species There is lack of knowledge concerning the role of the immune response in the pathogenesis These difficulties concerning the vaccination represent risk factors of emergence of the disease yes Borrelia can be transmitted to humans dogs cows but also to a series of other animal species including the wild fauna Depending of the epidemiological role of these new target species end host or relay of
108. e which is transmitted by suidae can be influenced by the climatic changes 31 yes Development of crow culture changes the ecosystem and gives more chance to increase wild boars populations This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium No influence of the urbanisation on the risk for emergence 88 33 no 0 No vectorial disease no influence of this factor Fievre du Nil occid ental Flavivirus Bengis et al 2004 Chevalier et al 2004 Glaser 2004 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 There exist more virulent strains For example the severity of the expansion in the USA was due to 1 the immunologically naive yes status of the US population and 2 a particularly virulent strain The same happened recently in Europe Genetic variability is a risk factor if the strain is more virulent 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis which could explain some emergences for example the poorly known role of yes vectors in the cycle maintenance dissemination of the virus the molecular determinism of the virulence variations the possible bird to bird transmission The lack of knowledge is a risk factor 3 n There are changes in pathogenesis depending on the genetic variability For example the American strain is
109. e A of perfringens in addition to soils and yes environment This is a risk factor for emergence because if additional factors are added nutrition the disease can occur 26 io 0 In the case of perfringens there is no incubation period but rather a normal asymptomatic carriage The development of the pathology is due to additional nutritional circumstances 27 ann There can be contacts between domestic poultry and wildlife but this has no influence on the risk for emergence because wildlife yes 0 does not play any epidemiological role 28 no 0 The wildlife does not play any epidemiological role and this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 29 no 0 The disease is not concerned by the wild life demography 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but this does not have any influence on the emergence of the disease 31 yes 0 There are changes in the ecosystems produced by man but this does not have any influence on the emergence of the disease 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium No influence of the urbanisation on the risk of emergence 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease TSE atypique chez les petits ruminants prions Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 14 Strains of different profiles exist The breeding for genetic resistance could lead to the selection of hypervirulent
110. e because the bacteria is already commensal and ubiquitous in the intestine of the animals 10 yes There is no specific legislation about necrotic enteritis in poultry but the re emergence of the disease is associated to the interdiction of using some antibiotics as additive in poultry feed this decision is founded on human health protection inter alia to limit extension of antibiotics resistance Interdiction of using antibiotics as additive represents a risk factor of emergence of the disease 11 yes There are changes in the technological and industrial processes related to poultry production for example in relation with their nutrition prohibition of use of antibiotic growth promoters The best known predisposing factor is mucosal damage caused by coccidiosis Diets with high levels of indigestible water soluble non starch polysaccharides known to increase the viscosity of the intestinal contents also predispose to necrotic enteritis This represents a risk factor for enterotoxaemia in the animals and consequently a risk for emergence of the disease 12 yes There are problems of detection of the emergence the disease is under diagnosed in animals because the clinical signs are unspecific However anatomopathologic lesions and bacteriological count are known Problems to detect the disease represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease because under detection delays the taking of preventive
111. e de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique Probl mes de d tection clinique passive sur le terrain dus par exemple un manque de vigilance et de connaissance une variation des manifestations cliniques l existence de plusieurs s rotypes ou un portage asymptomatique Maladie nouvelle non identifi e o formations sensibilisation r guli re et stimulation de la vigilance des acteurs de terrain leveurs et v t rinaires instauration d un syst me de v t rinaires praticiens sentinelles cf m decine humaine o formations r p t es des acteurs de terrain la d tection de situations anormales surveillance active o surveillance syndromique D veloppement de tests de screening non sp cifiques par exemple bio chips m tag nomique Manque de dialogue et communication Analyse sociologique des d claration compensations financi res relations entre les acteurs de l AFSCA manque r compense pour la terrain v t rinaires et leveurs de confiance de d tection de index et l Agence pour identifier des motivation case premier cas d une solutions au probleme de sous maladie emergente d claration des maladies De o en cas de suspicion de x maladie limiter les cette mani re l Agence pourra mesures temporaires de developper ae a actions contr le post d claration conersios pour am liorer la jusqu la confirma
112. e difficulties represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 The parasite is able to infect several types of mammals but these are resistant and are not considered as reservoirs and have no No epidemiological role So there is no passage of the species barrier The possibility to cross the species barrier and to infect a non resistant animal species would represent a risk factor for emergence 6 Yes 0 The parasite is zoonotic especially dangerous for splenectomized persons But this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in animals because humans do not retransmit the parasite and do not play an epidemiological role 7 There is a geographical expansion of the disease the disease is now enzootic in France and in the South of Belgium The vector yes Ixodes ricinus can extend to more than 1500 of height in the Alps This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 8 yes There is an increase in incidence of the disease in other countries and this represent a risk factor for propagation and emergence of the disease in Belgium 9 The bacteria is not capable to persist in the environment outside the vectors If the bacteria was capable to persist in the no 0 environment outside the vectors this would have no influence on the risk for emergence because the transmission of the bacteria needs the action of a vector bite 10 no 0 There is no legislation sanitary policy concerning this
113. e infection can be asymptomatic in all the susceptible animal species Because only the wild fauna plays an epidemiological role the other animal species are dead end hosts the role of the asymptomatic carriage in the risk for emergence of the disease concern only the asymptomatic infected wild animals and not the domestic animals The infected asymptomatic wildlife can transmit the infection and this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 yes There is animal reservoir in the wild fauna in Europe sylvatic mammals mice voles which can retransmit the bacteria to the ticks Dogs and birds can disseminate infected ticks and enlarge the endemic zones These are risk factors of emergence of the disease Numerous domestic mammals dogs bovines horses are susceptible to the infection but are not responsible for the maintenance of the disease in a region because there are accidental hosts which are not capable to transmit the infection 26 no 0 There is long incubation period in the animals A long incubation in the animals would have no influence on the risk for emergence because ticks are capable to transmit the bacteria between two animals without needing the presence of clinical signs Moreover asymptomatic animals are capable to transmit the infection 27 yes There are contacts between domestic animals and wildlife Direct contacts between these two animal populations are n
114. e justification scientifique pour exprimer l id e v hicul e par les scores Pourriez vous valider et ou commenter les propositions de consensus des scores et les justifications scientifiques au niveau des lignes jaunes Si vous acceptez serait il possible de renvoyer le document Excel pour le 31 mars 2011 Pourriez vous galement nous avertir si vous ne d sirez plus participer cette seconde phase de l enqu te Pour vous rappeler le contenu et les principes de cette enqu te Delphi vous retrouverez galement en annexe le mode d emploi qui vous avait t donn lors de la premi re phase Le terme maladie animale mergente est consid rer au sens large du terme dans le cadre de cette enqu te augmentation d incidence introduction et tablissement en Belgique si la maladie est exotique dispersion si la maladie est d j pr sente etc En r sum vous avez r pondu lors de la premi re phase de l enqu te deux questions ind pendamment l une de l autre colonne jaune le facteur nonc dans la colonne B existe t il est il pr sent actuellement en Belgique pour la maladie animale dont il est question Yes ou No Il ne faut pas encore r pondre la question le facteur est il un facteur de risque car cette question fait l objet de la colonne bleue colonne bleue ind pendamment de la r ponse la premi re question donc ind pendamment de la pr sence existence actuelle
115. e la part du groupe de travail E Thiry K Dierick D Berkvens H Imberechts R Ducatelle C Saegerman J Dewulf T van den Berg X Van Huffel et S Cardoen 37 Annexe 8 D tail qualitatif justifications scientifiques de l influence des facteurs de risque ou de protection sur les maladies animales tudi es Le num ro indiqu repr sente le num ro du facteur de risque tel que pr sent dans le texte point 2 2 tape 2 Bab siose bovine Babesia divergens Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 NG 0 There are at this moment no indications for genetic variability of the causative agent A genetic variability would have no influence on the risk for emergence of this disease 2 There is no lack of knowledge on the pathogenesis Lack of knowledge on the pathogenesis is always a risk factor for emergence no s of the disease for example lack of detection of the disease 3 No There no changes in the pathogenesis which represent a protection factor against the emergence of the disease Changes in the pathogenesis would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 4 No vaccines available in Belgium There are live vaccines which have provoked outbreaks with passage of the species barrier yes Inactivated vaccines are harmless but are less efficient than live vaccines Thes
116. e legislation sanitary policy surveillance detection slaughtering post mortem inspection with tracing back in the herd of origin yes compulsory notification control of the animal movements etc are protective factors against re emergence A decrease in the surveillance or of the measures could favor a re emergence particularly since the disease is yet sporadically present 11 0 There are changes in the technological and industrial processes but these have no influence on the risk for re emergence in cattle The pasteurisation sterilisation of the milk is has a protective effect for humans 12 There are problems of detection of the emergence weak clinical signs the interpretations of the tuberculinations are not always yes homogenous problems of notification no test on the wild fauna the tests are efficient in cattle but not in other sensitive animal species such as dogs and cats for example A lack of detection represents always a risk factor for re emergence of infectious diseases 13 n There is an increase in interaction between the different sensitive animal species Because M tuberculosis is not strictly host yes ae specific increases in contacts between different animal populations represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 14 There is no increase in interaction between domestic and wild host animal populations and humans Because the probability that no 0 humans retransmit t
117. e not systematically detected this is a risk factor for emergence 25 no 0 There is no animal reservoir an animal reservoir should not represent a risk factor for emergence ES The incubation period is not especially long for this disease A long incubation period would represent a risk factor for emergence no of the disease because is should allow the diffusion of the virus without detection of the infection However the legislation certificates would limit this risk 27 no 0 Disease not concerned by the wildlife 28 no 0 Disease not concerned by the wildlife 29 no 0 Disease not concerned by the wildlife 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes Disease not concerned by climatic changes 31 no 0 Disease not concerned by changes in ecosystems 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Disease not concerned by urbanisation 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease Ent rite n crotique chez la volaille Clostridium perfringens Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 There are variants toxinotypes depending on the strains In a same toxinotype varaition of pathogenicity could be observed yes aM especially linked to the ability of toxin expression and level of expression Moreover some genes coding for toxins are situated on mobile elements plasmids capable t
118. ease 25 There could be an animal reservoir in small ruminants but data are lacking on pathogenesis and epidemiology to estimate a yes transmission risk from this reservoir The distribution of PrPd in atypical TSE is rather limited e g no lymphoid involvement compared to classical TSE scrapie This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease as the sensitivity of the present tests is unknown and most cases are without clear clinical signs 26 The incubation period is long for the TSE specially the atypical TSE This increases the risk for transmission of the non detected yes gt disease and the risk for emergence of the disease 27 There are contacts between small ruminants and wildlife Since the disease is transmissible this can favour the transmission and y is a risk factor for emergence 28 AG The wild fauna does not play any epidemiological role Since the disease is transmissible an epidemiological role of wildlife would increase the risk of emergence of the disease 29 n n There is no increase in demography of the wildlife concerned by the disease Since the disease is transmissible an increase in no demography of the wildlife would represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes No influence on the risk of emergence 31 no 0 No influence of possible changes in ecosystems 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Be
119. ease in incidence in infected ticks is a risk factor for emergence of the disease no 0 The bacteria is not capable to persist in the environment outside the vectors If the bacteria was capable to persist in the environment outside the vectors this would have no influence on the risk for emergence because the transmission of the bacteria needs the action of a vector bite 10 no 0 There is no legislation and no official sanitary measures There exist only recommendations to avoid human infections avoid the endemic zones and the tick bites via protection clothes which protects against infection in humans but not against infection in the animal population It is impossible to control the infection in the tick population The existence of a legislation for animals would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal populations 11 no 0 The disease is not concerned by technological or industrial processes 12 yes The disease is frequently under diagnosed and is underestimated in humans diagnostic tests are less sensitive patients forget to declare the tick bite during anamnesis diagnostic is based on few specific or attenuated clinical signs and is difficult to establish long incubation time of the disease after the tick bite and in animals 90 of the dogs are asymptomatic veterinarians and breeders are poorly informed Problems of detection in humans and in dom
120. eases the interactions between humans and ticks wild fauna This is a risk factor for emergence on the disease 33 yes Ticks Ixodes ricinus et ixodes persulcatus present in Europe Belgium This is important factor of emergence of the disease in Belgium ESB atypique prions type H et type L Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 a A certain diversity exists concerning the prions but we can not speak about a true variability A genetic variability should represent a risk factor for emergence 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis The origin of atypical BSE is unknown spontaneous and sporadic arrival Meat n and bone meal Little is known on the pathogenicity of atypical BSE There are no data on the distribution of the infectivity in yes peripheral tissues what impede any evaluation of risk reduction by the different prevention measures force such as SRM The lack of knowledge of pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence 3 The L type seems more virulent for humans than the classical type In case of L type the majority of the PrPd is not situated in the yes brainstem and the brain should not be the optimal target for the detection of prion particles which can lead to a lack of detection of cases A non detection of cases can lead to the emergence of the disease
121. easing the available water surfaces Changes in the ecosystems such as for example the construction of dams and large irrigation zones should represent a risk factor for emergence through favouring the development of the mosquitoes 93 population 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Since the vectorial mosquitoes are present in urbanized areas such as in humid natural areas and in countryside urbanisation has no influence on the risk for emergence 33 yes The vector of the disease mosquitoes Aedes and Culex is present in Belgium This represents an important risk factor for dissemination of the disease if it is introduced in Belgium via for example trade of infected animals There is a possibility of viral overwintering vertical transovarian transmission of the virus in some vector species Aedes and of simultaneous hatching of one generation of infected mosquitoes which can favour the primary installation of the disease followed by the action of secondary vectors leading to the installation of an endemicity cf Egypt The ability of RVF to extend in free areas is due to the high variety of vectors capable to transmit the infection and to a viraemia level in ruminants and humans sufficient to infect mosquitoes There is also a possibility of mechanical transmission via culicoides and ticks Maladie h morragi que pizootique Orbivirus EFSA 2009
122. eau dont la Possibilit de o Recherche scientifique pathog nie est quarantaine inconnue Un Quarantaine Surveillance si des similaire est connu o Mesures prises sur m thodes existent et la pathogen se base d l ments o Recherche scientifique peut tre d duite suppos s Gaps dans la o Mesures bas es sur o Surveillance connaissance de les l ments connus o Recherche scientifique la pathog nie d un agent connu Maladie connue Formation continue mais mauvaise connaissance des acteurs de terrain des experts Changement dans la pathog nie Sous cat gories Recommandations 133 du facteur de Mesure concrete de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Augmentation Essayer d viter des Surveillance virulence conditions qui favorisent une o Recherche scientifique Allongement la augmentation de la pathog nie p riode d incubation Variation de l interaction h te pathog ne Changement du Compartimentalisation des spectre d h te esp ces au niveau de l exploitation pour viter la transmission interesp ces Contacts entre les animaux domestiques et la faune sauvage Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique bios curit Surveillance de la faune sauvage Globalisation
123. ecause humans only rarely retransmit the disease the risk factor for emergence of the disease in the animal population is weak 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The disease is not concerned by a demographic growth 16 yes There is a growth of the animal populations concerned by the disease wild fauna lagomorphs rodents ticks in Belgium This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 61 17 yes Human traveling is increasing but this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population only weak risk for emergence in the human population 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal population but represents a little risk for infection of humans via increased risk for contact with ticks ecological and bucolic tourism increase of hunting restaurants and game meals 19 yes There is an increase in trade of lagomorphs see point 2 9 increase in game meals during the hunting period etc This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the human population but not in the animal population 20 yes There is an increase in transport of lagomorphs during the hunting period This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the animal population 21 yes Tularemia is concerned by the bio terrorist threats because the bac
124. eem to be very similar but this has not been shown in detailed studies So we consider that there is no genetic variability of the biovar type 2 A genetic variability would have no influence on the risk for emergence 2 no There is sufficient knowledge of the pathogenesis A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 aa 0 There no changes in the pathogenesis due to the genetic stability A change in the pathogenesis would have no influence the risk for emergence of the disease 4 yes aM There is no effective vaccine against porcine brucellosis due to the fact that the bacteria grows optionally intracellular This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 There are 6 different species of Brucella which have each a main host Each animal species be very rarely infected by 40 foreign Brucella For ex the biovar type 2 infects mainly pigs and boars and can infect humans to a lesser extent Because the possibility exist this represents a theoretical risk factor for emergence However because Brucella are genetically stable the probability of a change of the host spectrum is weak The possibility to change the host spectrum represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease yes 0 Brucella suis type 2 can be transmitted to humans but is rarely pathogenic for humans contrary to the 1 and biovars which are very pathogenic for hu
125. een the intermediate domestic hosts for example sheep kept outside and definitive wild hosts foxes However direct contacts are not necessary to keep going the parasitic cycle because infection of canids occurs via ingestion of offal of infected sheep and infection of domestic intermediate hosts sheep occurs via grazing or ingesting feed contaminated by feces of infected canids Moreover foxes play only a minor role as definitive host in comparison with dogs Consequently it is considered that the contacts between domestic animals sheep and wildlife foxes has no influence on the risk of emergence 28 no Wild foxes definitive hosts play only a minor epidemiological role in the transmission cycle of the parasite in comparison with domestic dogs Wild cervids intermediate hosts can be a source of infection for the dogs Nevertheless the epidemiological role of the wild fauna is minor in comparison with the role of dogs and sheep in the transmission cycle of the disease If they had a more important epidemiological role the wild definitive and intermediate hosts because they are able to transmit the parasite would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease Yes 0 The last ten years populations of foxes have increased and extended in Flanders and in peri urban zones There is also increase in the populations of wild cervids Because wildlife does not play an important epidemiological role this has n
126. eks short period The length of the incubation period has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 27 yes Wild rodents can enter stables of domestic animals which is a risk factor of infection of domestic mammals a risk factor for emergence of the disease 28 yes The animal reservoir is a wild reservoir hares rodents Because the wild fauna is difficult to control this represent an important risk factor for emergence of the disease 29 yes There is a growth in the demography of the lagomorphs and of the wild rodents A growth in demography of the wild fauna is a risk factor for emergence of the disease because the wild fauna is difficult to control 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but they can have protective and or risk effects on the emergence For example softening of the climatic conditions with more rain soft winters will favor the survival of the bacteria and also the possibilities of transmission because of the multiplication of the bacteria and of the target or intermediary animal species mammals and arthropods risk factor On the other hand colder conditions hard winters represent a protection factor because animal and bacterial populations do not multiply or to a lesser extend and consequently the infectious and epidemiological pressures do 62 increase
127. ement This viral ability to change its pathogenesis pattern is a risk factor for emergence 4 Vaccination is forbidden in Belgium except in zoos Vaccination can prevent clinical signs but does not fully prevents the viral yes excretion making the viral transmission yet possible Vaccination can hide a residual infection Vaccination affects the trade These difficulties represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in case of introduction 5 The virus can be transmitted from poultry to pigs and to other mammals for example carnivores and also between different bird yes species This represent a risk factor for emergence of new subtypes in case of concomitant infection of a pig for example by a porcine and a human strain 100 yes The virus is zoonotic This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in humans and also in the animal population because humans are capable of retransmitting the disease humans are not dead end hosts yes A geographical expansion of the disease has been observed the last years not in 2011 anymore observed This increases the risk for emergence in Belgium yes New cases are regularly reported in foreign countries This increases the risk for emergence in Belgium yes The virus can persist in the environment under specific conditions water The possibility of viral persistence in the environment increases the risk for transmissi
128. ence on the risk for emergence of the disease 33 no 0 The transmission is not vectorial No influence of the insects on the risk for emergence of the disease Cysticercose porcine Cysticercus cellulosae Taenia solium Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 102 1 no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability would have no influence on the risk for emergence of this disease 2 5 There is no lack of knowledge on the pathogenesis of this disease A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 There is no change in the pathogenesis of the disease A change in pathogenesis could always represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease 4 n There exist an efficient vaccine but which is not commercially available The lack of available vaccine is a risk factor for emergence yes of the disease 5 no 0 There is no possibility of passage of the species barrier and this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 6 The disease is zoonotic humans are host for the adult stages of taenia saginata Because humans occasionnally retransmit the infection this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 7 There is no current geographical extension of the disease stays in central America Africa Asia
129. ents Europe Yes ypa included Italy Spain Turkey Recent expansion in the North of Italy Ectopic outbreaks in France due to the frequent movements of dogs in the Loire etc which could stabilise in the future Climatic evolution models indicate the possibility of outbreaks in the South of the United Kingdom in 2030 The geographical extension of the agent represents a risk factor of emergence of the disease in Belgium 63 There are increases in incidence of the disease in other countries This represents a risk factor of emergence of the disease in vee EN Belgium 9 N The Protozoan does not persist in the environment only persistence in the vector A persistence in the environment would have z no influence on the risk for emergence 10 Yes There is a surveillance system in Belgium for humans Tropical Medicine Institute but for animals The existence of surveillance systems are protection factors against emergence 11 No 0 Disease not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 Yes There are problems of detection of the emergence examples This represents a risk factor for emergence 13 Yes The peri urbanisation and the more frequent contacts of the citizen dogs with the nature increase the proximity between dogs and larval forms of phlebotomes This represents a risk factor for emergence
130. eny suewny 5 uonesiuecqn 51 suogehdod uewny pue awlia 94 JO YIMOIS Ay Iqissog JELSNPUI 29 jeoIHojoUYyop Wo unloads soy ayy o AyIIGISSOg uleseelou 121 e t constat dont l mergence es leuses ies animales infecti des malad emergence isque d 7 Facteurs 5 4 tL __ _ 4 Aptjod Aeyues uo WSHNO Ul asesu iuonesiedqojs HH IISIWOP JOeJUOS e Jo 04 jeo1Bojqnuepidy eu Aq PeUI99U09 uo Jalueq se 1 HIOAISSSI waysA uoljonpoud 5 Ul YOesHeqo s Yodsues ul JUSWIUO MUd Juahe a4 30 92091518194 za 4 saljAUNOD He Aq aSeasip 0 0 _ 4 _ subis jeju Jee r e puhe jo UolINqUIsip ul ugsuawxa Dd sissuaBoujed Jo Bp jmouy jo yog7 10 2 JO 9209591 5 5 UOWONpOd jenen ul uones l suone
131. ergence of the disease If ticks are considered as animals then they represent the most important non bovine animal reservoir Actually Babesia is able to survive several years 4 years in ticks trans ovarian and trans stadial transmission even in absence of cattle This represents also a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 There is no long incubation period in cattle A long incubation period would allow the transmission of the disease without detection no 4 and without taking appropriate measures and would represent a risk factor for transmission dispersion and emergence of the disease 27 yes If ticks are considered as wild animals then there is an increase in contacts between cattle and ticks of which the population 39 increases This is a risk factor for transmission and for emergence of the disease 28 yes If ticks are considered as animals of the wild fauna then the wildlife plays an important epidemiological role because Babesia is able to survive several years 4 years in ticks trans ovarian and trans stadial transmission even in absence of cattle Because the wild life is difficult to control this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 29 yes There is an increase in an expansion of the geographical distribution of and an increase in activity of the tick population Because of the epidemiological role of the ticks this represent a risk factor for emergence
132. es There have been recent cases in Bulgaria Since the virus is highly contagious an increase incidence in a neighbouring country should represent an important risk factor for emergence in Belgium dispersion by air risk at importation 9 Even if the virus can be relatively resistant in the outer environment it is not considered that it can persist in the environment no According to the transmission pathways the viral persistance in the environment should represent a risk factor for transmission and of emergence 10 There is a legislation concerning preventive ex control of importations and control measures ex slaughtering These protection factors against emergence of the disease 11 no 0 The disease is not concerned by this factor 12 yes There are difficulties of detection of the disease based on the passive surveillance for ex sheep express almost no clinical signs and difficulties of notification These are risk factors of emergence of this high contagious disease 13 ae There are currently no increases in interactions between the animal host populations Such increases should increase the risk for viral diffusion and would represent a risk factor for emergence 14 Currently there are no increases in interactions between the concerned animal populations and humans According to the no possibility of indirect transmission of the virus between exploitations via human activities
133. es maladies animales au niveau en Belgique belge formation du public l hygi ne et aux pr ventions des maladies animales au niveau en Europe europ en dans le monde plus de consommateurs signifie plus de nourriture et par cons quent importation a partir d une vari t plus grande d origines inconnues Donner des informations l industrie alimentaire et la distribution alimentaire sur les dangers et les risques d mergence pour leur permettre d en tenir compte dans leur plan HACCP afin d viter que des pathog nes soient pr sents dans les aliments augmentation de l levage hobbyiste et de basse cour informations aux leveurs hobbyistes L gislation police sanitaire Sous cat gories du Recommandations manque de contr le aux fronti res manque de contr le de la bios curit Manque de mesures de contr le obligatoires augmenter le contr le aux fronti res augmenter l importance de la bios curit faire une l gislation facteur de risque Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude gestion scientifique manque de l gislation Adapter la liste des maladies sur la d claration d claration obligatoire restrictions sur l utilisation de traitements ex antibiotiques restrictions sur l utilisation de la vaccination valuation des alternatives ces traitements par des comit s d experts consultatifs l gislat
134. es facteurs mesurables pourra tre r alis e ult rieurement en concertation avec les gestionnaires de risque dans le cadre d une tude co t b n fice Le Comit scientifique propose des recommandations plus sp cifiques qui sont soit des recommandations de type gestion pour les facteurs de risque qui le permettent ex probl mes de d tection de l mergence soit des recommandations de type surveillance vigilance et recherche scientifique L annexe 12 reprend le d tail des recommandations par facteur de risque Ci dessous figurent quelques exemples de recommandations class es en diff rentes th matiques mais prioritis es Une prioritisation pourra tre r alis e ult rieurement en concertation avec les gestionnaires de risque dans le cadre d une tude de faisabilit et d une tude co t b n fice e Surveillance o pour augmenter la d tection des maladies stimuler la vigilance des acteurs de terrain pour la d tection des maladies et des situations anormales par exemple via la formation continue des v t rinaires de l information aux leveurs etc 16 instaurer un syst me officiel v t rinaires praticiens sentinelles comme m decine humaine Lobet et al 1987 Stroobant et al 1988 op rer une surveillance pid miologique mol culaire de pathog nes isol s pour d tecter des variations g n tiques vecteurs op rer un monitoring des populations de vecte
135. es maladies animales vectorielles Sc nario 5 Facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales end miques Sc nario 6 Facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales sporadiques Sc nario 7 Facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales dont l mergence a t constat e Sc nario 8 Facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales exotiques a risque d mergence OnO 4 Incertitudes 4 1 Probl mes d interpr tation Lors la phase 1 de l enqu te Delphi certains experts ont eu des probl mes d interpr tation de la d finition de certains facteurs de risque ainsi que des probl mes de manque d ind pendance entre les r ponses la premi re et la deuxi me question Par exemple certains experts ont r pondu la premi re question comme si elle tait intitul e le facteur est il un facteur de risque encodez oui ou un facteur de protection encodez non et ont r pondu la deuxi me question sous la forme d une quantification de l importance du facteur de risque protection etc Ceci a engendr une certaine h t rog n it dans les r ponses des experts et des difficult s pour le traitement des donn es Ce probl me a t r solu suite la proposition de consensus assorti d interpr tations et de justifications scientifiques finalement valid es lors de la phase 2 4 2 H t rog n it des groupes de maladies Les groupes de ma
136. esent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 2 Kg FMD was studied very completely and there is no lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis A lack of knowledge represents always risk factor for emergence 3 no There is no change in the pathogenesis A change in the pathogeny should be a risk factor for emergence for ex prolonged incubation period 4 yes A vaccine is available and is efficient in an epidemiological point of view but preventive vaccination is not authorized in Belgium 82 which represent a difficulty to control the disease by vaccination Moreover differentiation between vacinated animals and infected ones is not perfect These difficulties are a risk factor of emergence of the disease 5 do Currently there no indications of a possibility of passage of the species barrier except the known susceptible species Such a possibility would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in new animal species 6 no 0 Non zoonotic disease or very very rarely and or theoretically 7 Currently there is no extension of the geographical distribution of the agent but could change rapidly Since the virus is high no contagious and can even cross the Channel under favourable climatic conditions cf England in 2001 and 2007 a geographical extension would represent a very important risk factor for emergence 8 y
137. eservoir in Belgium should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic pigs populations 26 no There is no long incubation period which is a protection factor against the emergence The presence of long incubation period would represent a risk factor due to the possibility of spread of the disease by asymptomatic undetected animals 27 yes There are contacts between domestic pigs and wild boars for example in extensive production systems If the virus was present in the Belgian wild boar population or in a neighbouring country it should be a risk factor for emergence because of the possibility of transmission through direct contact But currently there is no presence of the virus in wild boars of Belgium or of neighbouring countries 28 no Since Belgian wild boars are not infected are only infected in Africa the Belgian wildlife does not currently play an epidemiological role If there were infected wild boars in Belgium this would represent an important risk factor for emergence in the domestic pigs population 29 yes Since a decade we observe an increase in wild boars populations due to enhanced fertility and better natural feeding abundance of natural feed as acorns rodents This represents a risk factor for emergence if this population was infected 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes Current virological entom
138. estic animals are risk factors for emergence because if better detection better treatment or prevention for domestic animals and humans Also a lack of diagnosis could mask a change in virulence or clinical expression of the disease 13 yes There are increases in interactions between the infected tick populations increase in incidence of infected ticks see factor 1 8 more ticks in our regions and other animal populations for ex wild fauna This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the animal population wild fauna because proximity increases the risk for tick bite 14 no 0 There is no increase in interaction between the animal tick populations and the human population in Belgium Increase in interaction between the human s and the tick s animal s populations would increase the risk for infection in the human population but this would have no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal population because humans do not retransmit the infection 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium A demographic growth would have no influence on the risk for emergence because humans are dead end hosts 16 no There is no growth of the dog cattle population in Belgium If intermediate hosts wild or domestic animals are increasing there are more ticks and more contaminated ticks Thus increase of the risk 44 17 yes Human tr
139. expansion of the disease endemic from the South of the Meuse and in the Ardennes This represents a yes risk factor for further expansion and for emergence of the disease in free regions 8 yes There is an increase in incidence in neighboring countries and this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 9 yes The infectious parasite can persist in the environment in the feces of the definitive hosts and be ingested by the intermediate hosts wild rodents or humans this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the animal population 10 The parasite is on the list of zoonotic diseases to monitor in the EC zoonoses Directive However there is no official surveillance 0 There no measures taken in definitive and intermediate hosts which could limit the expansion of the disease and decrease the risk for emergence Because the parasitic cycle involves wild animals difficult to control the absence of control measures has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 11 no 0 The disease is not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 There are problems of detection of the emergence no official surveillance programme only prevalence studies in the frame yes scientific research which could help to detect an increase in incidence the parasitic cycle concern wild animals difficult to monitor the disease is asymptomatic in the definitive hosts etc These difficult
140. explicative de la phase 2 Annexe 8 D tail qualitatif justifications scientifiques de l influence des facteurs de risque protection sur les maladies animales tudi es Annexe 9 Sc narios de ranking pour les diff rents groupes de maladies Annexe 10 Influence de l h t rog n it des groupes sur les r sultats rankings Annexe 11 R sum des trios de t te des facteurs de risque pour les diff rents sc narios Annexe 12 Recommandations sp cifiques 1 Termes de r f rence 1 1 Objectif Le but de cet avis auto saisine est d identifier les facteurs de risque d 6mergence des maladies animales infectieuses en Belgique afin de permettre aux gestionnaires de risque d entreprendre des actions dans les temps Le but n est pas d tablir une liste exhaustive de maladies r mergentes ou a risque de r mergence L objectif est de d velopper une m thodologie qui permette d identifier des facteurs de risque communs plusieurs agents infectieux en utilisant des exemples repr sentatifs de maladies L enqu te Delphi a t r alis e en consid rant l mergence des maladies animales infectieuses uniquement sans consid rer les maladies humaines en cas de maladies animales zoonotiques La situation pid miologique belge au moment de l tude a t consid r e 2007 2012 L tude a permis de hi rarchiser les facteurs de risque par ordre d importance de leur influence sur le risque d mergence de gr
141. ez les humains ces souches du toxinotype A sont principalement responsables de gangr ne gazeuse et de toxi infections alimentaires collectives lent rotox mie chez la volaille les bovins et les porcs est caus e par diff rentes souches du toxinotype de C perfringens sp cificit d h te Dans cet exercice seules les souches affectant la volaille sont consid r es occasionnellement dans des zones end miques 27 Annexe 2 Tableau Excel a double entr e facteurs de risque et maladies Risk factors of animal disease emergence in Belgium A Prevalent diseases Belgium endemic or sporadic Porcine brucellosis boar Brucella suis type 2 Bovine babesiosis Babesia divergens Lyme disease Q fever Coxiella Hantavirosis Borrelia burgdorferi burnetii Hantavirus level of expertise 1 2 3 or 4 1 Factors related to the infectious agent 1 1 Genetic variability mutation recombination etc 1 2 Lack of knowledge of pathogenesis Change in pathogenesis change in development of the disease in the host e g increase in virulence prolonged incubation period variation in interaction host pathogen 1 4 Difficulty to control disease by vaccination 1 3 Possibility to change the host spectrum from 1 5 animal species to another animal species species barrier Possibility to change the host spectrum from 16 animals to hum
142. f introduction of the disease there may be detection problems of the emergence due to the lack of specificity of the symptomatology the neccessity of a sufficient number of contemporary cases to detect the emergence the lack of experience despite the availability of diagnostic tests in Belgium These are risk factors of emergence 13 yes There are increasing interactions between animal compartments for example through trade and transport There are few transmissions by direct contact between ruminants despite the presence of the virus in the saliva and in nasal excretions but the proximity between animals increases the risk because it favours the action of the vector The increase in interactions between animal compartments is a risk factor for viral transmission and emergence 14 no There is no increase in interactions between ruminant and human populations in the urban cycle humans are infected by mosquitoes pricks The disease is also transmissible via direct contact with infected animal tissues sylvatic cycle vets farmers An increase in interactions vectorial proximity direct contact between ruminant and human populations should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease because humans are capable to reinfect the vectors and retransmit the disease are not dead end hosts 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium RVF is concerned by an eventual human de
143. f the risk for emergence because the animals are healthy asymptomatic carriers capable to excrete the bacteria without the presence of clinical signs 27 yes There are contacts between domestic and wild animals with possibilities of reciprocal transmission of the germs by direct contact since the wild fauna is also reservoir There are several recent studies showing the important prevalence of the bacteria in wild animals This represents a risk factor of transmission of the disease and so of emergence 28 yes The wild fauna can play an epidemiological role because it is a reservoir and it can transmit the infection to domestic animals 0157 has been isolated from deer wild pigs birds rats etc There are several recent studies showing the important prevalence of the bacteria in wild animals even for birds such as sparrows the bacterium could be isoltated from their excreta and they could be 57 followed flying from one farm to another This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease The quantification of the risk is difficult in absence of real studies concerning the role of the wild fauna in the epidemiology of the disease 29 There is no increase in the demography or distribution of the wild fauna concerned by the disease Such an increase would no represent a light risk factor for emergence because of the possibility of epidemiological role in the tran
144. fluence on the risk for emergence of the disease in Belgium because the transmission of the parasite by ingestion stays geographically localized 8 There is no increase in incidence in other countries or neighbouring countries An increase in incidence in other countries would no 0 have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease because the transmission of the parasite by ingestion stays geographically localized 9 The parasite can persist in the environment pastures surface waters 2 months during the summer and 5 months during the yes winter and this contributes to the transmission cycle by ingestion of infested grass This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 10 The existing legislation interdiction of spreading of human excrements on pastures inspection and refusal of infected carcasses yes at the slaughterhouse is a protection factor against emergence of the disease The protection is weak because the current meat inspection detects only a small percentage 10 20 of the infected carcasses 11 Yes __ There are changes in the technological processes in bovine industry serological detection in abattoirs and this contributes to the protection against the emergence of the disease 12 There are detection problems of the disease live animals are asymptomatic weak sensitivity of the visual inspection at the Yes slaughterhouse and this can impede the detection of a possible increase in i
145. from Eastern Europe 20 yes The intra EU transports of living swine including reproductive animals and of sperm are intensive and increasing This represents a risk factor for introduction of infected living pigs or sperm in pig exploitations and of emergence of the disease in the domestic pig population 21 yes There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 yes There are many intensive inside production systems of swine in Belgium This is one of the most important protection factor against the emergence because of the limitation of the most important risk factor the contacts with the wild fauna boars The industrialization of swine production has resulted in the disappearance of brucellosis in swine in France since 1981 But because of the high diversity of possible transmission routes this protection is not complete 23 yes There are extensive production systems of pigs in Belgium with access to an outside course mainly in the South of the country This is an important risk factor for introduction of the disease in the domestic swine population due to the possibility of infection by contact with wild boars which are the wild reservoir of the disease 24 yes Wild boars and domestic pigs can be asymptomatic carriers In boars the disease is frequently unapparent In domestic pigs the clinical signs are more present but can also be unapparent
146. g countries and other there are increases in incidence of serotypes absent in Belgium for yes example serotype 1 This is a risk factor for emergence due for example to an increase in the risk for importation of animal infected by a serotype absent in Belgium 70 9 ne 0 The virus can not persist in the environment outside the vector Even if it was able to persist in the environment this should have no influence of the risk for emergence since transmission involves the action of a vector 10 __ There sanitory policy measures mandatory vaccination restrictions of movements mandatory notification screenings These are protection factors against emergence 11 no 0 Bluetongue is not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 There have been problems of detection of the serotype 8 in 2005 2006 difficulties to recognise and diagnose unusual clinical yes signs difficulties of declaration by farmers and veterinarians etc Problems of detection of infectious disease are risk factors of emergence because it results in a spread of the disease without control measures 13 yes aM There are increasing interactions between animal compartments for example through and transport Moving infected animals in free areas is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the uninfected animal populations 14 no
147. g of products from infected incubating animals 13 no There are no increases in interactions between cattle populations Pathogenesis and transmission of Atypical BSE is largely unknown If lymphoreticular system would be more involved like in Classical scrapie or CWD then direct and indirect contact could be a risk factor 14 no 0 There no increases in interactions between human and cattle populations Since the transmission is foodborne and that humans are dead end hosts interactions have no influence on the risk for emergence of atypical BSE 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium There is no influence of a demographic growth on the risk for emergence for the same reasons mentioned above 16 no 0 There is no growth of the cattle population in Belgium A growth of the cattle population should have no influence on the risk for emergence since the transmission route of the disease is food borne 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing but this has no influence the risk for emergence in the cattle population 12 18 yes 0 Human tourism is increasing but this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the cattle population 19 yes is an increase in trade of cattle This is a risk factor through the risk for importation of infected animals or meat and bo
148. gence 29 0 There is no increase in the demography of the wildlife in Belgium Because the wildlife does not play any epidemiological role this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but these have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 31 no 0 The disease is not concerned by changes in the ecosystems produced by man 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium The disease is not concerned by the urbanisation 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease Influenza aviaire hautement pathog ne virus influenza A sous type H5N1 Webster and Hulse 2004 Bengis et al 2004 Gilbert et al 2008 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 n There is a high genetic variability in RNA viruses reassortment provoked the emergence of this highly pathogenic strain H5N1 genetic variability of the influenza viruses is a risk factor for emergence of new strains gene y 9 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis For example the study of the molecular markers of virulence is yet necessary A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 yes There have been changes in pathogenesis Namely the passage to the highly virulent status of this avian influenza virus is essential el
149. hanges in technological and industrial processes These be risk factors or protection factors The breeding of goats is a developing sector If mores sheep goats would be breeded risk for those people may increase If fecal material would be better processed or injected into the ground exposure would be less Some technics as pasterisation could destroy the bacteria in food 12 yes Before 2010 at the time of this survey there was no official surveillance and notification was not compulsory This is not the case currently There has also be a sensibilisation of the sector since 2010 but there are always problems of declaration by the breeders Problems of detection always represent a risk factor for emergence 13 yes Almost all mammal species can be infected although little develop the disease There are increases in interactions between the different animal compartments which increase the risk for transmission of the disease and the risk for emergence 14 yes 0 Educational farms and more widespread This represent a risk factor of infection of humans There exists an indirect carriage of humans food or livestock dealers vets which go form one fram to another These are risk factors of dispersion of the disease 15 no 0 There is no significant human demographic growth in Belgium Since humans do not retransmit the disease this factor has no influence on the ri
150. hase 2 nombre d experts ayant r pondu la phase 2 le nombre d experts ayant r pondu la phase 1 a t de 74 voir annexe 3 Le document Excel envoy aux experts reprend pour les maladies pour lesquelles ils avaient initialement t s lectionn s et pour chaque facteur de risque ou de protection les propositions de scores consensus assortis des justifications scientifiques annexe 6 issues de l analyse de la phase 1 Il leur a t demand de 11 valider corriger commenter les propositions de consensus ainsi que les justifications scientifiques Chaque maladie a t analys e par plusieurs experts sauf quelques maladies voir annexe 3 et point 2 4 3 Les experts devaient par maladie valider commenter la proposition de consensus pour l ensemble des facteurs de risque de la liste A l issue de la phase 2 des valeurs uniques consensus par facteur et par maladie assorties de justifications scientifiques ont ainsi t obtenues Concernant les facteurs non li s sp cifiquement a une maladie dont la pr sence ou l absence ne varie pas en fonction des maladies par exemple augmentation du tourisme augmentation du terrorisme bouleversements climatiques etc une analyse horizontale a t effectu e pour harmoniser les r ponses la premi re question pour l ensemble des maladies Par exemple la pr sence de changements climatiques et m t orologiques ne varie pas en fonction des maladies animales La r po
151. he infection to animals is very low an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal population 15 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium A demographic growth has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population 16 no nn There is no growth of the cattle population An increase in the domestic animal population concerned by the disease would represent a risk factor of emergence 17 0 Human traveling is increasing Human traveling increase the risk for human infection in endemic countries but because the reverse zoonosis is very rare this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal populations 18 g 0 Human tourism is increasing Tourism increases the risk for human infection in endemic countries but because the reverse zoonosis is very rare this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal populations 19 There is an increase in trade of the concerned animal species cattle in Belgium Because of the risk for importation of infected yes animal from endemic countries if the animals are not tested at importation note that the test is obligatory this represent a risk factor of introduction of the disease in the country and a risk for emergence 20 There is an increase in animal cattle transports in Belgium Because the disease can spread via movements of undetected yes infected animals and because there are seve
152. here are more and more cases in the South of France Italy Hungary Romania and recently in Austria The emergence in the North of Europe is a Increase in incidence new cases in another country ies There is an increase in incidence in the South of France Italy Hungary Romania Austria This is a risk factor for emergence in Belgium The virus can not persist in the environment outside the vector Even if it was __ able to persist in the environment this should have no influence of the risk for Persistence of the agent in the environment 35 Annexe 7 Lettre explicative de la phase 2 Cher expert L ann e pass e vous avez rempli un questionnaire sur les facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales dans le cadre d une enqu te Delphi propos e par le Comit scientifique de l AFSCA pour les maladies suivantes Maladie 1 Maladie 2 Maladie 3 Etc Plusieurs autres experts ont galement rempli ce questionnaire pour ces m mes maladies et les r ponses ont t analys es La seconde et derni re tape de cette enqu te Delphi est de trouver un consensus dans les scores des diff rents experts Une proposition de consensus tenant compte des r ponses re ues des experts se trouve dans le document Excel en annexe Comme des probl mes d interpr tation lors de la premi re phase de l enqu te Delphi ont parfois t identifi s la proposition de consensus est accompagn e d un
153. here is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 There are no intensive sheep production systems in Belgium Intensive production systems can protect against emergence by no decreasing the possibilities of interaction of these domestic intermediate hosts with pastures potentially contaminated by feces of infected definitive hosts dogs or foxes 23 Yes ypa There are extensive sheep production systems in Belgium This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease because it allows sheep to graze on pastures potentially contaminated by feces of infected dogs 73 24 Yes The dogs and foxes are asymptomatic carriers This allows the dissemination of the parasite in the environment and infection of the intermediate hosts This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 Yes The canids are the reservoir of the disease Because of their epidemiological role in the transmission of the disease and the possibility of asymptomatic carriage this represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 Yes 0 There is a long incubation period in animals linked to the asymptomatic carriage Because the excretion of the parasite transmission of the disease does not depend on the presence of clinical signs this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 27 Yes 0 There are possibilities of direct contact betw
154. hey can stay 108 infected during 396 days In the natural outbreaks the forest plague survive by a continuous cycle of the etiological agent transmitted between rodents via the fleas arthropod vertebrate complex cats and dogs could also represent an animal reservoir if the incidence of the infection increases in these species The animal reservoirs represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 no In sensitive animals the incubation period is short and the animals die rapidly which is a protection factor A long incubation period should represent a risk factor for emergence because it favors the transmission by infected and non diseased animals 27 yes There are contacts between domestic and wild rodents For example wild rats forest plague can infect ubiquitous rats via a flea bite which in their turn can infect domestic rats which in their turn can infect humans urban plague These contacts are risk factors of emergence of the disease 28 yes The wild rodents rats play an important epidemiological role because they are the natural reservoir of the bacteria Because the wild fauna is difficult to control this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 29 no There is an increase in the rodent rat population in our country If the disease was present in the region an increase in the rat population would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease
155. ientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability of this virus should have no influence on the risk for emergence 2 yes There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis potential vectors geographical distribution This lack of knowledge represents risk factor for emergence 3 no There is no change in pathogenesis concerning this disease A change in pathogenesis for example increase in virulence should represent a risk factor for emergence 4 Live and inactivated vaccines exist but are not commercially available in Belgium In case of introduction of the disease in yes Belgi this should constitute a risk factor for dispersion and emergence elgium this shou p g 5 yes Numerous animal species have been identified as receptive to the virus This represents a risk factor for emergence 6 yes The disease is zoonotic In case of sufficient viraemia humans are able to retransmit the virus to the vector which then can 91 retransmit the virus to animals or humans the humans are not dead end hosts This is a risk factor for expansion and emergence of the disease in case of introduction no The disease confined to Africa until 2000 invaded the arabic peninsula but has never been reported in Europe If the disease emerged in Europe this should represent a risk factor for emergence in Belgi
156. ies of detection are risk factors for emergence of the disease 13 yes There is an increase interaction between the animal compartments concerned by the disease increase in the foxes population This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 53 14 There is no increase in interaction between foxes and humans An increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence in ng 0 the animal population because humans do not retransmit the parasite 15 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The emergence of the disease is not influenced by a human demographic growth because humans are not capable to retransmit the parasite 16 Yes ypa There is an increase in the fox population Because foxes are important definitive hosts of the disease this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 17 Yes 0 Human traveling is increasing This has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 18 Yes 0 Human tourism is increasing This has an influence on the risk for emergence in the human population fruit picking but not in the animal population 19 No 0 There is no increase in trade of foxes or rodents No influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 20 No 0 There is no increase in transport of foxes or rodents No influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 21 yes 0
157. iff rents groupes de maladies 3 R sultats 3 1 Evaluation qualitative Les valeurs consensus assorties des justifications scientifiques de l influence des facteurs de risque protection sur les exemples de maladies animales se trouvent a 8 Vu de ces r sultats ils ne sont pas r sum s dans le texte de cet avis 3 2 Evaluation quantitative de l impact des facteurs de risque protection sur l emergence des maladies animales infectieuses Ci dessous est pr sent le sc nario de ranking des facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales consid rant la sant animale dans son ensemble sc nario 1 12 le dans son ensemble anima rant la sant r les cons les anima Scenario 1 Ranking des facteurs de risque d mergence des malad Le narios z l ensemble des sc z e pour tent les facteurs de risque ayant l occurrence la plus lev facteur de protection es en rouge represen Les 6 facteurs de risque indiqu z facteur indiqu en vert est consid Meyubs uohesfe7 4 pmo diydesGowwep yeuny 4 wsuouay asealoul Yonesijeqojg ET wasg uonanpod akisuaju suewny 0 suonejndod U1 9509190 UDHESITEqO s ABojojoayaw pue apui ul Aq peonpoid 5135 5029 sabueys WISLINO 01 051 0 0 Auge en 10 98A 0 92095911
158. illegal importation of infected animals 101 20 a Bird animal transport is increasing This is a risk factor for introduction and emergence of the disease in the country through the risk for illegal transport of infected animals 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 There are intensive poultry production systems in Belgium If the disease was introduced in Belgium this would be a risk factor for emergence through the high contagiousness and transmission rate of the infection in high density populations The high density of yes the pork production systems would also be a risk factor for recombination and emergence of new sybtypes in case of introduction of the disease in Belgium 23 yes ypa There are extensive poultry pork production systems in Belgium This is a risk factor for emergence through the possibility of contact with infected wild avifauna 24 yes ypa There are wild avian species which show no clinical signs if infected These species can move and disseminate the disease This is a risk factor for introduction of the disease in our country 25 yes ypa Wild birds mainly water birds are the animal reservoir for the domestic poultry Their presence is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in domestic poultry 26 The incubation period is not specially long in animals But a long
159. ination is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 no 0 This disease concerns only domestic and wild suidae A crossing of the species barrier is improbable 84 6 no 0 Non zoonotic disease and no influence on the risk for emergence 7 The disease is present in Africa and in Sardinia Since more recently there is a worrying geographical extension of the disease yes and a threat for Europe from Russia and Caucasus This is a risk factor for emergence in our countries 8 yes yppa The disease is at risk for introduction in the Iberian peninsula where it has already previously been identified It is also present in Africa Sardinia and Russia This is a risk factor for emergence in our countries 9 ie The virus is not very resistant in the environment but could persist a few weeks EFSA recommands more research about this The persistance in the environment should represent a risk factor for emergence 10 yes ____ The sanitary measures taken in case of an outbreak for example slaughtering are protective factors against expansion of the disease 11 no 0 This disease is not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 Since the last outbreaks date from several years there is a lack in practice experience of some farmers veterinarians leading to a yes risk for absence of early detection of this high contagi
160. increase the risk for dispersion and HZ for emergence of the disease There is no increase in incidence in other countries An increase in incidence in other countries would represent a risk factor of No Sy emergence of the disease in our country 9 yes The infectious parasite can persist in the environment in the feces of the definitive hosts for ex in pastures and be ingested by the intermediate hosts this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the animal population 10 There are legislations and measures the parasite is on the list of zoonotic diseases to be monitored zoonoses Directive post w Mortem inspection of ruminant carcasses at the slaughterhouse destruction of offal at the slaughterhouse to avoid infection of Jr dogs but there is no official surveillance in the definitive hosts and no measures in wild and domestic canids The legislation and the sanitary policy measures are always protection factors against emergence 11 no 0 The disease is not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 There are problems of detection of emergence no true surveillance programme aiming at detecting an increase in incidence but yes only punctual prevalence studies for research activities the disease is asymptomatic in the definitive hosts These problems are risk factors for emergence 13 yes aM There is an increase in interacti
161. incubation period could favour the viral disperion on long no distances via migrations of undiseased infected birds and should represent a risk factor for introduction of the disease in our country 27 yes There are possibilities of contact between domestic poultry and wild avifauna This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 28 If infected the wild avifauna be a viral reservoir and play an epidemiological role by transmitting the infection to domestic yes TER poultry This is a risk factor for emergence because wild faune is difficult to control 29 io There is no increase in demography and or distribution of wild birds in belgium Such changes would represent risk factors for introduction and expansion of the disease in Belgium because of the important epidemiological role of this animal population 30 There are climatic and meteorological changes but they atr not capable of influencing the risk for emergence of the disease no yes 0 influence on the migratory routes It is to be noted that higher humidity and temperatures favour the persistence of the virus in water 31 io ypa There are currently no changes in the ecosystems in Belgium But changes in ecosystems for example establishment of water features favourable to the wild waterbirds would represent risk factors for introduction of the disease via the wild fauna 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Urbanisation has no influ
162. introduction of the parasite in the Belgian swine population emergence 19 n There is an increase in trade of pork This represents a risk factor of importation of infected swine in Belgium introduction and yes emergence 20 yes There is an increase in transport of pork This represents a risk factor of introduction of infected swine in Belgium emergence 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 Yes There are intensive swine production systems in Belgium This is a protection factor against infection of porks because their receive industrial feed and have no access to an environment contaminated by human dejections 23 Yes There are extensive swine production systems in Belgium ex kept outside BIO porks This represents a risk factor of infection of swine via ingestion of matters infected by human excrements present in the environment 24 yes Live pigs are asymptomatic and this represents a risk factor for emergence lack of detection eo yes There exists an animal reservoir pork and this represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 aa 0 There is long incubation period in swine but the incubation period has no influence on the risk for emergence because only dead animals meat are capable to transmit the disease to humans The live animal is not infectious 27 There are contacts between domestic pigs and wildlife but thi
163. ion ne permettant pas l autorit de prendre des actions adapter la l gislation 140
164. ironment this should have no influence of the risk for emergence since transmission involves the action of a vector 10 aS The current legislation and sanitary policies are protection factors against emergence mandatory notification of disease Ministerial decree of 29th september 1992 recent Royal decree contingency plan efficient diagnostic tests 11 0 There are no changes in technological or industrial processes concerning domestic birds or horses No influence on the risk for emergence 12 There are many asymptomatic infections by humans and horses detection of high mortality rates by birds is difficult Detection of yes emergence only be late Problems of detection of emergence are risk factors of emergence since the disease can disseminate without being detected 89 13 no There is no increase in interactions between the concerned animal populations horses wild birds domestic birds If infected migratory birds transport the virus to Belgium this should be a risk factor of introduction and dissemination of the disease in horses and birds in Belgium This risk for introduction is possible because the viruses can persist several days in birds allowing a viral transport from South of France or from Austria The risk for dissemination of the disease also exists since the vectors are present in Belgium 14 no 0 There is no increase vectorial interactions betwee
165. is already prevalent in Belgium the risk for importation of infected animals has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 20 There is a general increase in transport but this has no influence on the epidemiology of the disease nor on the risk for yes 0 emergence Since the disease is already prevalent in Belgium the risk for transport of infected animals has no influence on the risk for emergence 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 es There are intensive production systems cattle etc Intensive productrion system avoids contact with the vector in natural biotopes and acts as protector factor 23 yes aM There are extensive production systems cattle etc Extensive production system allows and enhances contact with the vector environment and then constitutes an effective risk factor 24 Yes aM Many mammal hosts remain once infected asymptomatic carriers for life ensuring a reservoir role capable to retransmit the infection to the ticks This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 yes aM Many mammal hosts remain once infected asymptomatic carriers for life ensuring a reservoir role capable to retransmit the infection to the ticks This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 n The incubation period can be long in animals This is a risk factor for emergence because these animals are not detected and Je have more
166. is disease 2 no There is no lack of knowledge of pathogenesis A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 no There is no change in the pathogenesis A change in pathogenesis can increase the risk for emergence 4 yes There exist difficulties to control the disease by vaccination This represents a risk factor for emergence 5 yes There exist possibilities of changing the host spectrum Such possibilities represent a risk factor for emergence 6 n n The possibility to change the host spectrum from animals to humans exists but only in highly endemic regions The number of yes human infections is increasing in Europe The contribution of humans in transmission is negligible 7 yes There is a progressive recovery of the disease in France first in the Mediterranean Basin then towards the center till the Paris Basin maybe false expansion due to an increased detection This represents a risk factor of emergence in Belgium 8 Increase in prevalence in the South Spain Italia Sardinia and in the East of Europe Serbia Croatia Turkey Romania n increase in the number of cases in the North of Europe Switzerland Austria Netherland Germany United Kingdom Sweden yes Hungaria in imported dogs in dogs which stayed the South of France but also in dogs which have not left their home cases in Switzerland This represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease in
167. it inh rente aux groupes et le nombre de maladies dans les groupes ont une influence sur les r sultats des rankings Les graphes ci dessous montrent l influence de l enl vement d une maladie la fois sur les r sultats des rankings Sc nario 1 Facteurs de risque influencant l mergence des maladies exotiques groupe de 15 maladies La croix noire centrale repr sente la moyenne des scores par facteur de risque consid rant les 15 maladies du groupe Les croix grises repr sentent la moyenne des scores apr s retrait chaque fois d une maladie du groupe Le num ro indiqu au dessus des croix repr sente le num ro du facteur de risque tel que pr sent dans le texte point 2 2 tape 2 Dans ce sc nario l influence de l enl vement d une maladie sur les r sultats du ranking est faible l ordre du ranking ne change pas beaucoup car il y a beaucoup de maladies Les r sultats concernant les grands groupes sont plus stables 124 4 00 3 50 3 00 2 50 2 00 1 50 1 00 0 50 0 00 0 50 1 00 1 50 2 00 2 50 3 00 Average _6 _12 gt DEC a l x 14 2 Z X X 21 11 32 ww 20652 Se see 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 1 7 X Ex_13 X Ex_2 X Ex_3 XEx 4 5 X Ex_8 X Ex_9 X Ex_10 x Ex_11 _14 Aver_Ex1_to_Ex14 125
168. ith different virulence levels for example the most virulent biovar is the A type in the USA the Aa European type biovar being less virulent but there is no genetic variability leading to the appearance of new strains which is protection factor against emergence Because of its high growth exigencies this bacterium is genetically stable A genetic variability would represent a risk factor for emergence of new strains 2 yes yg There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis because only dead animals are found in the wild fauna lack of knowledge of the interactions with the hosts of the molecular pathogenesis etc and it is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 3 Considering the lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis it is difficult to answer this question but it is assumed that there is no currently no change the pathogenesis A change the pathogenesis would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 60 yes As for each facultative intracellular bacteria the classical vaccination is not very efficient It is difficult to vaccine wild fauna There is no authorized vaccine commercially available for animals These difficulties concerning the vaccination represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease yes The disease concern mainly rodents and lagomorphs but theoretically all the mammal species are sensitive to the bacteria This possibility of passage of the spe
169. ivergens piroplasmose 2 Brucellose porcine Brucella suis type oui Sangliers porcs Contact direct salive mati res f cales urine s cr tions nasales chez le sanglier 2 type 2 domestiques contact indirect transmission m canique via les personnes ou le lt lt li vres mat riel infect s v n rienne sperme aliments pour animaux et eau types contamin s abats de li vres infect s lait a rosols 1et3 3 Maladie de Lyme Borrelia oui Humains chiens Vecteur tiques burgdorferi chats h tes accidentels 4 Fi vre Q Coxiella burnetii oui Ruminants bovins A rosols contact direct ingestion moutons ch vres et autres esp ces de mammif res 5 Hantavirose Hantavirus oui Rongeurs Contact avec les urines inhalation de poussi res contamin es domestiques et sauvages 6 Cysticercose bovine Cysticercus bovis oui H tes Bovins ingestion via les patures ou leau de surface contamin es Taenia saginata interm diaires humains consommation de viande bovine insuffisamment cuite bovins h tes d finitifs humains 7 Echinococcose Echinococcus oui H tes d finitifs Les canid s sauvages et domestiques h tes d finitifs sont infect s par multilocularis renards chiens carnivorisme de rongeurs infect s h tes interm diaires Les h tes chats h tes interm diaires rongeurs humains sont infect s par ingestion de interm diaires rongeurs sauvages parasites limin s dan
170. iversity that shows that L tropica traditionally considered cause of TL also causes VL in Morocco A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 There is no change in the pathogenesis Changes in the pathogenesis would represent a risk factor for the emergence of the No disease For example selection of parasites resistant to the drugs would increase the risk of emergence of resistant Protozoa Dogs can constitute an important reservoir for the emergence of resistant strains because their teatment is difficult 4 Yes There are treatment difficulties and absence of available vaccine These are risk factors for emergence 5 Yes Leishmania can infect different domectic and sylvatic animals which become infectious This is a risk factor for emergence expansion of the disease 6 The disease is Zoonotic but humans are dead end hosts and can not infect the vector except in the case of immunocompromised yes Persons where the parasite is dermotrope In case of co infection with the VIH immunosuppression there is a possibility of selection of drug resitstant organisms which can constitute a risk factor for emergence of potentially first line drug resistant leishmaniosis 7 There is a geographical extension of the disease around the Mediterranean There are sporadic human cases in Belgium 10 human cases per year of which one Belgian case in 2007 with the other cases originating from all the contin
171. l reservoir the lenght of the viraemia is variable An animal reservoir no should represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 ne 0 There is no specially long incubation period for the disease A long incubation period would have no influence on the risk for emergence because tick bites do not depend on the presence of clinical signs 27 There are contacts between wild and domestic in extensive systems ruminants which could via the proximity favour the action yes of the vectors and the transmission of the disease to the domestic cattle population This is a risk factor for emergence in the domestic cattle population 28 There is an epidemiological role of the wildlife because wils ruminants can be infected and retransmit the infection This is a risk yee factor for emergence because of the difficulties to control the wildlife 29 yes There is an increase in the wild cervids population in Belgium This represents a risk factor for emergence because this facilitates the vectorial transmission of the virus 30 yes Moss There are climatic and meteorological changes which modify the repartition of the vectors in the North hemisphere This is a risk factor for emergence presence of culicoides 95 31 Currently there are no changes in ecosystems in Belgium Changes in ecosystems could contribute to an interaction between no domestic cattle and wild cervids which sho
172. ladies form s selon la situation pid miologique le caract re zoonotique ou non le type d agent pathog ne et le mode de transmission sont h t rog nes c est dire que les maladies qui les composent ne pr sentent pas des caract ristiques similaires concernant le r le des facteurs de risque Par exemple dans le groupe des maladies exotiques il y a des bact ries des virus des parasites des maladies transmission vectorielle alimentaire etc Le r le de certains facteurs de risque sur l mergence des virus n est par exemple pas identique leur r le sur l mergence des parasites Le sc nario le plus complet est celui reprenant l ensemble des 34 maladies Les groupes des maladies end miques sporadiques mergentes exotiques de transmission vectorielle de transmission alimentaire et zoonotiques comprennent respectivement 7 6 6 15 13 14 et 23 maladies L h t rog n it dans les groupes comprenant moins de maladies est plus grande que dans les groupes contenant plus de maladies car les groupes avec moins de maladies contiennent moins de maladies comparables L annexe 10 pr sente quelques exemples de l influence de l h t rog n it des groupes sur les r sultats Plus il y de maladies dans un groupe plus les r sultats du ranking sont stables 4 3 Nombre d experts ayant valid la seconde phase L impact des facteurs de risque sur certaines maladies n a pu tre valid que par un nombre restrei
173. lders recherche scientifique Firmes pharmaceutiques am liorer la formulation du vaccin et modifier le mode d injection Extension de la distribution g ographique de l agent infectieux Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Extension caus e viter ces facteurs surveillance par des facteurs connus et g rables Extension caus e Vigilance accrue de la surveillance par des facteurs situation internationale par inconnus et non l autorit comp tente g rables o Monitoring de sources non officielles google o Consultation des alertes de la litt rature Extension dans le mesures de contr le surveillance pays Extension dans un contr le du commerce surveillance pays voisin intracommunautaire et des mouvements Extension en contr le du commerce surveillance Europe intracommunautaire et des mouvements Extension dans une Contr le des importations surveillance autre du monde r gion Porteurs asymptomatiques sans signes cliniques Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Introduction ou o quarantaine importation o tests s rologiques d animaux infectieux l achat l importation Excr tion persistante D tection des animaux excr teurs D velop
174. lgium No influence of urbanisation on the risk for emergence 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease Myotathie atypique des quid s Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no 0 Impossible to answer this question because up till now the causative agent is unknown 2 There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis The etiology of the disease is unknown This is an important risk factor for yes eee emergence because this lack of knowledge makes the prevention and the etiological treatment difficult 3 Changes in the pathogenesis are observed these last years the disease affect populations of different age old horses have been yes affected during the last clinical series the recent cases we have seen showed clinical signs a little bit different as the cases we have seen before the mortlity rate seems to decrease with time A change in pathogenesis could always represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease 80 4 There is no vaccine Several horses that have survived from atypical myopathy have died from the condition after a second yes 0 outbreak of the disease several months later These cases question about the efficacy of vaccination It is at the present time impossible to answer the question as the pathogenesis of the disease and the etiology are unknown 5 16 0 Cur
175. lgium but wel in Germany a neighbouring country The yes 8 i presence of animal reservoir in Germany represents risk factor for introduction of the disease Belgium 26 yes Depending of the age of the animals there be a longer incubation period of the disease long incubation period is a risk factor due to the possibility of spread of the disease by asymptomatic undetected animals 27 There are contacts between domestic pigs and wild boars for example in extensive production systems Because of the yes possibility of transmission of the disease through direct contact this is a risk factor for emergence There are no infected wild boars in Belgium but the presence of the disease in wild boars in Germany could have an influence 28 yes Since wild boars an animal reservoir of the disease the wild fauna plays an epidemiological role Because wild life is difficult to control the presence of infected wild boars in a neighbouring country Germany is a risk factor for emergence in Belgium 29 yes Since a decade we observe an increase in wild boars populations due to enhanced fertility and better natural feeding abundance of natural feed as acorns rodents This represents a risk factor for emergence if this population was infected 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes But current virological entomological and epidemiological data do not suggest that the diseas
176. m Because humans do not play a role in the epidemiology of the disease human demographic growth would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 16 yes There is an increase in the wild boar population which can be infected This constitutes a risk factor for emergence of the disease An increase in the domestic pig population not currently the case would also represent a risk factor due to the problems of 41 detection see point 2 3 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing This can increase the risk for infection of humans when traveling includes contact with asymptomatic infected animals But because humans do not play an epidemiological role this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal populations 18 yes 0 There is an increase in touristic activities farm tourism animal parks etc This can increase the risk for infection of humans but because humans do not play any epidemiological role this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal populations 19 yes The intra EU exchanges of living pork s including reproductive animals and of sperm are intensive and increasing This represent a risk factor for introduction of infected living pigs or sperm in pig exploitations and of emergence of the disease in the domestic pig population The origin of the infection in wild boars in our regions could be importations of boars
177. mal population increases the risk for yes infection higher transmission rates and of emergence Moreover in Belgium usually more C obsoletus scoticus were captured inside than outside the stables 23 yes There extensive production systems for ruminants Belgium The presence of animals pasture increases the risk for contact with the vectors and the risk for emergence 24 There are asymptomatic carriers which can disseminate the infection without being detected confined or treated This is a risk wee factor for emergence 25 The animal reservoirs are the domestic and wild ruminants but wildlife has no important reservoir function since seroprevalence yes decreased in Belgian deer in 2008 mostly in juveniles Linden et al Emerging Inf dis 16 833 836 2010 A wild reservoir is a risk factor for spread of the disease because it is difficult to control A domestic animal reservoir is also a risk factor for spread of the 71 disease 26 0 The incubation period of Bluetongue disease is not especially long The length of the incubation period has no influence on the risk for emergence because the vectors do not need the presence of clinical signs to bite animals and transmit the viruses 27 yes aM There are possibilities of proximity contacts between domestic and wild ruminants Proximity between the two animal populations favours the viral transmission
178. mans Because humans do not retransmit the infection to the animals the possibility of human infection has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal population yes There is a geographical expansion of the agent which follows the expansion of the wild boar population The biovar 2 is widespread in the boar and hare populations in whole Europe and is endemic in the Southern of Belgium This constitutes a risk factor for emergence in the domestic pig population yes The last years there is an increase in incidence of infected boars namely in France with outbreaks of porcine brucellosis in domestic pigs bred outside There has also been a case in Belgium Increases in incidence in neighbouring countries represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in our country yes The bacteria can multiply inside or outside the host and can survive several days or months in the external environment This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the outside bred domestic pig population 10 yes There are sanitary policy measures such as the control of the sperm production by testing the donors the interdiction to feed pigs with offal the compulsory declaration of the disease but there is no official surveillance But these measures provide only a weak protection factor against the emergence of the disease in the domestic pork populations because of the high number of possible transmission pathways and because
179. minism of the Lack of knowledge of pathogenesis Change in pathogenesis change in development of the disease in the host e g increase in virulence prolonged incubation period variation in interaction host pathogen There are changes in pathogenesis depending on the genetic variability For example the American strain is more virulent than the European one The change of pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence There is an available and authorized vaccine for horses in Belgium but vaccination of the horses will not control emergence since horses are dead end hosts Vaccination of wild birds is impossible Difficulty to vaccinate Difficulty to control disease by vaccination The virus can infect numerous receptive bird species which are capable to transmit the virus effectively This is a risk factor for emergence The virus can also infect other mammals but these are dead end hosts which do not contribute to the propagation of the disease and consequently have no Possibility to change the host spectrum from one animal species to another animal species species barrier The disease is transmissible to humans and this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the human population But since humans are dead end hosts this has no influence on the risk for emergence and Possibility to change the host spectrum from animals to humans Extension in geographical distribution of the agent T
180. mographic growth 16 no There is currently no increase in the Belgian ruminant population High densities of sensitive animals could maintain durably the infection cycles if the vectors are present A growth of the ruminant population should be a risk factor for emergence 17 yes Human traveling is increasing This is a risk factor because of the possibility of introduction of the disease via infected persons who have travelled in an endemic area and because the human viraemia is sufficient to reinfect indigenous mosquitoes However this risk factor is relative because of the necessity for the establishment of an outbreak of ecological conditions favourable to the emergence of a lot of mosquitoes 92 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This is a risk factor because of the possibility of introduction of the disease via infected persons who have travelled in an endemic area and because the human viraemia is sufficient to reinfect native mosquitoes However this risk factor is of relative importance because of the necessity for the establishment of an outbreak of ecological conditions favourable to the emergence of a lot of mosquitoes 19 yes Animal trade is increasing This is an important risk factor for emergence because of the risk for importation of infected viraemic animals capable to transmit the infection 20 yes Animal transport is increasing This is an im
181. more virulent than yes Be the European one The change of pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence 4 ae aM There is an available and authorized vaccine for horses in Belgium but vaccination of the horses will not control emergence since y horses are dead end hosts Vaccination of wild birds is impossible Difficulty to vaccinate birds is a risk factor for emergence 5 The virus can infect numerous receptive bird species which are capable to transmit the virus effectively This is a risk factor for yes emergence The virus can also infect other mammals but these are dead end hosts which do not contribute to the propagation of the disease and consequently have no influence on the risk for emergence expansion 6 0 The disease is transmissible to humans and this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the human population But since humans are dead end hosts this has no influence on the risk for emergence and propagation in the animal population 7 There are more and cases in the South of France Italy Hungary Romania and recently in Austria The emergence in the yes North of Europe is a risk factor for emergence in Belgium 8 yes There is an increase in incidence in the South of France Italy Hungary Romania Austria This is a risk factor for emergence in Belgium 9 io 0 The virus can not persist in the environment outside the vector Even if it was able to persist in the env
182. n humans horses birds Since humans are dead end hosts an increase in interactions between human and bird horse populations could increase the risk for emergence in humans immunologically naive human population but not in the animal populations capable to spread the infection No influence on the risk for emergence in the animal populations 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium A human demographic change should have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in Belgium because humans are dead end hosts 16 no There is no growth in the equine and bird populations in Belgium If there was such a growth it could increase the risk for emergence birds are capable to transmit infection 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing but this has no influence on the risk of introduction of the disease in Belgium because humans will not introduce the virus dead end hosts 18 yes 0 Human tourism is increasing but this has no influence the risk of introduction of the disease in Belgium because humans will not introduce the virus dead end hosts 19 yes There is an increase in trade Trade of birds or of goods which can contain infected mosquitoes is a risk factor cf outbreak in the USA Importation of horses for example from Romania increases the risk for introduction but not the risk for propagation of the disease in Belgium
183. n to ther species such as men is rare although the viruses are relatively prevalent in certain European bat species This is probably due to the fact that the typical rabid aggressive 65 behaviour is seldomly seen in European bats Probably this is because the pathogenesis of European bat lyssaviruses is different from the classic rabies virus A mutation might change the pathogenesis what should represent a risk factor because it might change the behaviour of these lyssaviruses towards the phenotype of the classic rabies virus with an increased appearance of rabid behaviour agressivity in bats and transmission to humans as is the case in the USA variation in the interaction host pathogen 4 yes Itis difficult to vaccine wild species bats This is a risk factor for emergence 5 yes Several cases of transmission to other species have been described in Europe 1 marten in Germany 2 house cats in France 2 sheep in Denmark The possibility to pass the species barrier is a risk factor for emergence in new animal populations 6 Bs 0 The bats can transmit the infection to humans But since humans do not retransmit the virus they are dead end hosts The zoonotic character of the disease is not a risk factor for emergence no influence 7 yes The disease is present in all Europe This is a risk factor for emergence 8 There are increases in i
184. n tourism is increasing The disease is not concerned by the increase in tourism 19 There is an increase in trade of poultry but because the bacteria is ubiquitous this has no influence on the risk for emergence of Yes 0 the disease However because the pathogenesis is no entirely known the importation of more sensitive poultry for example cannot be excluded 20 Yes 0 There is an increase in transport of poultry but because the bacteria is ubiquitous this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 Yes There are intensive poultry production systems which constitute risk factors for emergence of the disease linked to the changes in nutrition processes exact mechanism unknown 23 Yes There are extensive poultry production systems which are protective against emergence of the disease mechanism 24 The strains of the toxinotype A are usual commensal germs of the intestine of the animals Potentially all poultry is a carrier as a typa A is a normal inhabitant of intestinal flora This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease because the strains of the 99 toxinotype A which are responsible for the enterotoxaemia are particular other toxins other factors and are not present in all the exploitations 25 The intestines of the poultry are a natural reservoir of the host specific toxinotyp
185. nce of the 34 animal diseases was analysed via a Delphi survey by 50 experts The study allowed to rank the risk factors according to their relevance to the emergence of separate groups of infectious animal diseases for example exotic zoonotic foodborne diseases etc as well as for all the diseases taken together in one global group The six most important risk factors when considering re emerging animal diseases as one global group are the following presence of an animal reservoir detection problems of emergence of disease difficulties to control the disease by vaccination geographical extension of the disease asymptomatic carriage and increase in the incidence of the disease in other countries This ranking of risk factors allowed to make recommendations namely in regard to early warning vigilance surveillance and control of animal diseases Concerning the early warning it is recommended to monitor the measurable risk factors of emergence The appearance of the increase in incidence of risk factors can alert the risk manager early of the increased risk of emergence of infectious animal diseases Mots cl s Maladies animales mergentes facteurs de risque hi rarchisation recommandations Table des mati res R sum Mots cl s 1 Termes de r f rence 1 1 Termes de r f rence 1 2 L gislation belge relative l mergence des maladies animales 2 Avis 2 1 D finitions dans le cadre
186. ncidence This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 There is no increase in interactions between the concerned animal populations cattle populations An increase in such No 0 interactions would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease because the transmission cycle of the parasite involves an indirect relation between humans and cattle and no direct relation between cattle 14 There is no increase in interactions between cattle and human populations Such an increase would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease because the transmission cycle of the parasite involves indirect interactions between humans and 51 cattle 15 io 0 us no significant demographic growth in Belgium The emergence of the disease is not influenced by a human demographic growth 16 0 eds is no growth of the cattle population in Belgium Such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the isease 17 Yes 0 Human traveling is increasing This has no influence on the risk of emergence in the cattle population 18 Yes Human tourism is increasing Increased tourism by backpackers or wild campers defecating in pastures might have an influence on the risk of emergence 19 n There is an increase in trade of cattle This represents a risk factor of emergence of the disease because the m
187. ncidence in other countries than Belgium These increases have a direct influence on the risk for yes emergence in Belgium because bats wild life are capable to move from one country to another independently of the borders The increase in incidence in the other countries is a risk factor for emergence 9 Ag 0 The virus is not able to persist in the environment The possibility of viral persistence in the environment should have no influence on the risk for emergence because transmission requires a contact between animals 10 Bats are protected by law This implies that epidemiological research or other types of research are only allowed after specific n derogation by the competent authorities In this case the legislation represents a risk factor for emergence In 1999 an infected 99 bat transited through Belgium from Africa towards France The legislation about importation should be reinforced and the controls should be more rigourous 11 no 0 No influence of changes in technological or industrial processes for the risk for emergence of this disease 12 It is dificult to obtain samples for analysis and surveillance Bat conservationist groups in Belgium are rather protective and it is yes difficult to gain their confidence and cooperation with regard to obtaining samples of diseased or dead specimens for analysis Bats are wildlife species This can lead to a problem of detection of emergence and is a risk factor for emergenc
188. nd expansion of new viral serotypes in Belgium if such new serotypes are introduced Echinococcose Echinococcus granulosus Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability would have no influence on the risk for emergence of this disease 2 no There is no lack of knowledge on the pathogenesis A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 No mn is no change the pathogenesis change in pathogenesis could always represent a risk factor of emergence of the isease 4 yes Vaccination against parasites is mostly problematic efficiency etc This is a risk factor of emergence of the disease 5 N w The parasite can already infect several animal species but due to the absence of genetic variability there is no possibility to infect i additional animal species A passage of the species barrier would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 6 0 The disease may be accidentally zoonotic Since humans do not excrete the parasite in the feces no definitive host and yes consequently are not capable to retransmit the disease there is no influence of the risk for emergence in the animal population 7 No There is currently no geographical extension of the disease A geographical extension would
189. ne meal 20 n n There is an increase in transport of cattle and animal products There is no influence of the transport of animals on the risk for es emergence but the transport deriving from less controlled countries of meat and bone meal illegal could be a risk 21 yes As BSE is considered as a potential bioterrostic agent for animals economic as for humans nv link atypical BSE can also considered as such one cannot exclude it 22 yes ie pl systems exist for cattle in Belgium These are a risk factor only if recycled material is used which is orbidden 28 yes Extensive production systems exist for cattle in Belgium These can be a risk factor only if the mean age of the population increases 24 The animals are asymptomatic during a very long period no H BSE and L BSE were observed in the passive epidemio w surveillance network although during retrospective interviews the farmers and veterinarians for six of these animals reported yes clinical signs with TSE in three fallen stock rendering the early detection of the disease impossible This can be a risk factor for emergence in case of recycling of products from infected incubating animals 25 There is no animal reservoir The existence of an animal reservoir should not represent a risk factor because the transmission of no 0 the disease is most probably food borne but other transmission ways cannot be excluded as pathogenesis studies are la
190. nfection by the biovar 2 follows this increase This represents 42 a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the wild and domestic populations of suidae 30 There are climatic and meteorological changes Since a decade we observe an increase in wild boars populations due to yes enhanced fertility and better natural feeding abundance of natural feed as acorns rodents Changes in climate constitute a risk factor of emergence of the disease 31 yes For example the interdiction to shoot wild boars animal parks development of crow culture change the ecosystem and give more chance to increase wild boars populations This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease see point 3 6 32 nn There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium This constitutes a protection factor because more cities represent less forests and less wild fauna ess wild fauna 33 no 0 The disease is not vector borne Maladie de Lyme Borrelia burgdorferi Bengis et al 2004 Higgins 2004 Factor Presence yes absence no Impact risk protection no effect Scientific justification yes There exist an antigenic variability of burgdorferi sensu lato based on genetic modifications New strains and even new species may develop It is a major difficulty to follow the evolution of the disease because it is difficult to have efficient diagnostoc tools or prophylaxis as vaccin
191. ng but this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the bovine population 19 Yes There is an increase in trade This increases the risk for emergence via the risk of introduction of infected animals in free cattle exploitations 20 Yes There is an increase in transport This increases the risk for emergence via the risk of introduction of infected animals in free cattle exploitations 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 oa There are intensive cattle production systems in Belgium This represent a protection factor against emergence because there are PS less contacts between indoor kept cattle and ticks 28 There are extensive cattle production systems in Belgium This represent a risk factor for transmission and for emergence of the yes gai disease because of the increased possibilities of contact between outdoor kept cattle and ticks 24 yes myn There are recovered cattle with a persistent asymptomatic parasitemia which can serve as source of infection for ticks and other animals This represents a risk factor for transmission and for emergence of the disease 25 Babesia can infect numerous domestic and wild mammals but since they are resistant they are not a reservoir of the disease Recovered cattle with persistent parasitemia can serve as reservoir and source of parasite for infection of ticks This is a risk factor yes for transmission and em
192. nize the political borders this increase in incidence represent a risk factor for emergence in Europe and in our country 9 The bacteria can stay virulent for several days in putrefying organisms The persistence in the environment would represent a risk yes factor for emergence of the disease but the mechanism is unknown Re emergence is conditionned by many environmental factors including the presence of suitable vectors and intermediate hosts 107 10 There are some sanitary policies biosecurity fight against rodents and vermin control programs against fleas in endemic yes regions tests at importation etc These elements are important protection factors against emergence 11 yes 0 The disease is not concerned by the changes in technological or industrial processes 12 yes There could be problems of recognition of the warning symptoms of the disease in human patients by first line doctors in case of re emergence The non detection of the disease would be a risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 There can be increases in interactions between the different concerned animal compartments between wild and domestic rodents yes via flea bites between cats and rodents via ingestion of rats etc This could represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease if infected animals would be present in the region 14 There are increases in inte
193. nment is not proven for Atypical BSE but by analogy with other prions scrapie and classical BSE it has to be considered that there is a survival in the environment This is a risk factor for emergence 10 yes There is a legislation EC Regulation 999 2001 This is an important protection factor against emergence However the reduction of the surveillance can be a risk factor for underestimation of the prevalence or of undetection of a potential emergence 11 yes There are changes in the technological or industrial processes The origin of atypical BSE is sporadic or spontaneous i e not due to changes in industrial processes but the recycling of infectious materials could be at the origin of the transmission of the disease such as for classical BSE Consequently the changes in the industrial processes are risk factors of emergence 12 yes Different current tests see validation of current tests by EFSA available offer sufficient sensitivity However due to the fact that in atypical cases the majority of the PrPd is not present in the brainstem brainstem is used in all these tests the current testing methods do not allow reliable detection of the Atypical cases so no reliable data on the occurence and possible other transmission mechanisms than for classical BSE are available This represents a risk factor of non detection of a re emergence of the disease and a risk factor for emergence in case of recyclin
194. nse a donc t donn e pour l ensemble des maladies Pour ce faire le choix de la majorit des experts a galement t consid r Etape 4 Analyse des donn es Les valeurs signe consensus ont t converties en valeurs num riques consensus par exemple a t remplac par 1 par 2 par 3 etc et les statistiques descriptives somme moyenne cart type coefficient de variation erreur standard intervalle de confiance ont t calcul es soit pour l ensemble des maladies sant animale globale soit par groupes de maladies selon la situation pid miologique maladies end miques maladies sporadiques maladies dont l mergence est constat e maladies exotiques risque d mergence le type d agent pathog ne maladies bact riennes maladies virales maladies parasitaires maladies a prions le mode de transmission maladies vectorielles maladies de transmission alimentaire de transmission directe indirecte par inhalation par l environnement etc et le caract re zoonotique ou Les facteurs de risque ou de protection ont t tri s par ordre d croissant d importance sur base de la moyenne des scores par groupes Un ranking des facteurs de risque selon leur importance pour l mergence des maladies animales a ainsi t obtenu d une part pour l ensemble des maladies d autre part pour les d
195. nt Excel via des menus d roulants pour chaque facteur de risque protection et pour les maladies pour lesquelles ils ont t choisis aux 3 questions pr sent es ci dessous avec possibilit de commenter justifier leur choix Question 1 Le facteur nonc existe t il est il pr sent actuellement en Belgique pour la maladie animale dont il est question R pondez oui facteur pr sent ou non facteur absent L objectif de cette question d coule du fait que la liste de facteurs de risque est identique pour toutes les maladies s lectionn es et qu il est n cessaire d analyser la situation propre a chaque maladie Il ne fallait pas encore r pondre a la question le facteur est il un facteur de risque protection de la maladie car cette question faisait l objet de la seconde question Question 2 La r ponse cette question devait se faire ind pendamment de la r ponse la premi re question donc ind pendamment de la pr sence existence absence actuelle en Belgique du facteur de risque M me si le facteur n tait pas pr sent actuellement en Belgique il fallait quand m me r pondre la question en raisonnant de mani re th orique c est dire en imaginant que le facteur existe Le facteur diminue t il le risque d mergence de la maladie en question Si oui il s agit d un facteur de protection contre l mergence de la maladie encodage d un augmente t il le risque
196. nt d experts lors de la seconde phase de l enqu te Delphi pour cause de manque de disponibilit des experts Echinococcus granulosus la maladie 14 h morrhagique pizootique la pleuropneumonie contagieuse bovine la tuberculose bovine la leishmaniose la peste l enc phalite tiques et la dirofilariose n ont t valid es que par respectivement un ou deux expert s 4 4 Interd pendance de certains facteurs de risque Certains facteurs de risque ne sont pas totalement ind pendants les uns des autres Par exemple le facteur de risque concernant la longue p riode d incubation durant laquelle un animal ne pr sente pas de signes cliniques malgr sa capacit transmettre la maladie et provoquer une pid mie ne peut pas tre totalement dissoci e du facteur de risque concernant le portage asymptomatique de la maladie Un autre exemple concerne la pr sence de vecteurs qui n est pas totalement ind pendante des bouleversements climatiques Un dernier exemple concerne le r le pid miologique de la faune sauvage qui comprend des aspects li s au facteur de risque relatif aux r servoirs animaux 5 Conclusions et recommandations Un inventaire de 33 facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales infectieuses a t tabli Ces facteurs de risque ont t hi rarchis s selon plusieurs sc narios sur base de leur importance sur le risque d mergence de ces maladies L annexe 11 reprend pour chaque sc na
197. nto Europe the role of biological and climatic processes Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2008 27 2 427 42 Schlundt J Toyofuku H Jansen J and Herbst S A Emerging food borne zoonoses Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 513 33 Slingenbergh J Bilbert M de Balogh K and Wint W Ecological sources of zoonotic diseases Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 467 84 Stroobant A Van Casteren V Thiers G Surveillance systems from primary care data surveillance through a network of sentinel general practitioners In Eylenbosch WJ Noah N editors Surveillance in health and disease Oxford Oxford University Press 1988 62 74 Toma B B net J J Dufour B Eloit M Moutou F Sanaa M Glossaire d pid miologie animale Editions du Point V t rinaire 1991 365 p 20 Toma B Dufour B Sanaa M B net Shaw A Moutou F Louza A Epid miologie appliqu e a la lutte collective contre les maladies animales transmissibles majeures 2 dition Editeur AEEMA Maisons Alfort France 2001 696 pages Webster R G and Hulse D J Microbial adaptation and change avian infuneza Rev sci tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 453 65 Zeier M Handermann M Bahr U Rensch B Muller S Kehm S Muranyi W and Darai G New ecological aspects of hantavirus infection a change of a paradigm and a challenge of prevention a review Virus genes 2005 30 2 157 80 21 Membres du Comit
198. o be transferred but this possibility is not studied The genetic variability represents a risk factor for emergence of new variants 2 There is a lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis of the disease During years the pathogenesis was thought to be understood at the bacteriologic level toxin alpha but today contradictory results concerning the implicated toxins are published The Circumstances of the apparition of the enterotoxaemia in the animals are not well understood The most difficult is to determine yes with precision the management and feeding conditions allowing the start of pathology These lacks of knowledge of the pathogenesis constitute risk factors of emergence of the disease for example by impeding to take adequate prevention measures 3 n There no changes in the pathogenesis see point 1 1 there is no genetic variability which represent a protection factor no against the emergence of the disease Changes in the pathogenesis would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 4 yes There are practical difficulties to control the disease by vaccination Moreover new research results are published calling previous theories into question These difficulties concerning the vaccination represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 The possibility of passage of the species barrier is unknown the basis of a potential host specificity is unknown but it is no 0 considered that
199. o influence on the risk for emergence of the disease Yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but the emergence of the disease is not concerned by such changes no 0 There no changes in ecosystems allowing the emergence of the disease Yes There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Foxes in cities could increase the risk of emergence of th disease no 0 Non vectorial disease Art rite virale equine Arterivirus Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 15 There exists a genetic variability This is risk factor for emergence 2 yes There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis This is a risk factor for emergence 3 yes There are changes in pathogenesis with emergence of more virulent variants namely in France 2007 There are differences between Europe and USA where there have been abortion storms These changes in pathogenesis are risk factors of 74 emergence 4 There are few vaccines which are few tested but which seem to have an effect of reduction of the viral excretion These difficulties to control disease by vaccination are risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 There is no passage of the species
200. occur This is a risk factor for emergence No 0 There is no geographical extension of the bacterium because it is already widespread worldwide A geographical extension has effect on the risk of emergence because the bacteria are already widespread no There is no really increase in incidence of new cases in neighbouring countries In recent years there seems to be an incraese in 55 Belgium An increase in incidence of new cases in neighbouring countries would represent a risk factor for emergence because it would mean an increase in the number of carrier animals and because of the trade it would mean an increasing prevalence in our cattle and an increased risk for contamination of humans yes The bacterium can survive for long time several months in the environment principally in organic matters soils feces in which it can multiply water plants independently of the presence of carrier animals This is a risk factor of dispersion and of emergence of the disease namely when animals are placed on pastures on which manure has been expanded during the 6 previous weeks Persistence in the environment is an important risk factor since reinfection of cattle occurs via this route and since human infection via vegetables drinking water etc is going via that route 10 Yes There is a legislation for ex Directive zoonoses This is a protection factor against emergence to be
201. of risk products meat or delicatessen from infected animals and from prevalent yes countries in which the virus can resist for a very long time is an important risk factor for introduction and emergence of the disease 20 There is an increase in transports Transport of risk products meat or delicatessen from infected animals and from prevalent yes countries in which the virus can resist for a very long time is an important risk factor for introduction and emergence of the disease 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 yes There are intensive production systems of pigs in Belgium The high swine density increases the possibility of spread of the disease and is a risk factor for emergence 23 There are extensive production systems of pigs in Belgium This is a risk factor for emergence in the domestic pigs population yes through possibilities of contact with wild boars Another reason is the possibility to introduce the virus by feeding animals with scraps of meat cuisine waste containing infected pork meat 24 There are no true asymptomatic carriers but depending on the age of the animals there can be animals without clinical signs 793 Wild boars can be asymptomatic carriers Asymptomatic carriage is a risk factor for spread of this highly contagious disease 25 Wild boars animal reservoirs There is no infected wild boar in Be
202. of the animals plays also a role These are risk factors of emergence 23 yes There are extensive production systems of cervids in Belgium These are risk factors of emergence because this favours the transmission between cervids such as evidenced in USA in parks for cervids 24 yes cervids sometimes be asymptomatic during all their lifespan This is a risk factor for transmission and of emergence due to the non detection and to the absence of sanitary meausres 25 yes ypa There is an animal reservoir Since the disease is transmissible and that the animal reservoir plays an epidemiological role this is a risk factor for emergence 26 yes ypa The incubation period is long Preclinical carriers can excrete the PrPd before the disease occurs birth milk This increases the risk for transmission of the non detected disease and the risk for emergence of the disease 27 yes There are contacts between domestic and wild cervids Since the disease is transmissible this can favour the transmission and is 97 a risk factor for emergence 28 Since it is a cervid disease the wildlife has an epidemiological role This is a risk factor for emergence due to the difficulty of yes controlling wild fauna 29 yes There is an increase in the demography of wild cervids which can increase the risk for emergence 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorologi
203. of the disease 30 yes There are climatic and meteorological changes The global warming can be at the origin of an increase in the tick population and of a modification of the geographical distribution of the ticks ticks coming from the South The ticks are 2 fold more active when the weather is warm and dry Because of the important epidemiological role of the ticks this represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 31 yes There are changes in the ecosystems draining forest fragmentation etc increase in humidity favoring the tick populations This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 32 yes There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium This can represent a protection factor against infection of humans but it has no influence on the risk for emergence in cattle 33 yes The disease is tick borne Ixodes ricinus whose population and activity increase This represent an important risk factor for emergence of the disease Brucellose porcine chez le sanglier Brucella suis type 2 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect T Swine brucellosis is caused by B suis bv1 bv2 and bv3 Genetic studies tend to show that bv1 and bv3 are undistinguishable an 0 while bv2 is different Intra biovar genetic variability is currently unknown All bv2 strains isolated from boars s
204. ological and epidemiological data do not suggest that the disease which is transmitted by suidae can be influenced by the climatic changes An EFSA working group is going to evaluate the possibility of influence of this factor on African swine fever 31 no There are no changes in the ecosystems in Belgium If there were changes in the ecosystems which could modify the boars distribution and allow the presence of soft ticks this would contribute to the risk for emergence 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium No influence of the urbanisation on the risk for emergence 33 no Soft ticks are not present in Belgium currently which is a protection factor against emergence although the disease can be also transmitted directly without the action of a tick If these ticks were present in Belgium this should represent an important risk factor for emergence of the disease Here also EFSA suggest more research Peste porcine classique Pestivirus Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect T Ag Despite the existence of several CSF strains the virus is stable The presence of a genetic variability should represent a risk factor for emergence 2 yes In agreement with the Discontools Gap analysis there is a lack of knowledge host factor determinating clinical outcome viral 86 fac
205. om endemic yes regions can represent a risk factor of accidental importation of infected rodents vectors in a free region historical example rats in the commercial ships So the global increase in trade is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 20 The rodents are not directly concerned by the transports but such as for traveling tourism and trade international transport from yes endemic regions can represent a risk factor of accidental importation of infected rodents vectors in a free region historical example rats in the commercial ships So the global increase in trade is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 21 yes There is an increase in terrorism Yersinia pestis could be used as bacteriological weapon This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 22 no 0 The disease is not concerned by the production systems of domestic animals 23 no 0 The disease is not concerned by the production systems of domestic animals 24 Some rodent species are resistant do not die when infected and transmit the disease These resistant host species infect the yes fleas which in their turn infect sensitive animals which can create an outbreak In case of presence of such rodents in our regions this asymptomatic carriage would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 yes The wild rodents are the natural reservoir of the disease The fleas are also considered as natural reservoir because t
206. on des vecteurs par les agents pathog nes Augmentation d incidence d une esp ce de vecteur Surveillance des maladies transmises par ce vecteur Variabilit g n tique mutation recombinaison Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Variabilit inn e o Action directe Surveillance drift shift impossible pid miologique 136 limiter la transmission via l hygi ne et la bios curit mol culaire de pathog nes isol s Variabilit induite par des facteurs externes Eviter les circonstances qui induisent la mutag n se Globalisation augmentation du tourisme Sous cat gories du Recommandations Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude a roports ports o informations de bios curit aux voyageurs facteur de scientifique risque Intra EC contr les aux Extra EC fronti res aux Expansion des vecteurs biocides dans les moyens de transport avion bateau Changements dans les cosyst mes produits par l homme Sous cat gories du facteur de risque d forestation reforestation barrages digues Recommandations Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude gestion scientifique surveillance des maladies concern es par
207. on and of emergence 10 yes There are currently legislation and sanitary policy measures mandatory notifiable disease biosecurity confinement of poultry etc These measures are protection factors against emergence 11 no This disease is not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 yes If the disease is introduced in Belgium it will probably occur via the wild avifauna The surveillance of this wild avifauna is a passive surveillance Since the wild fauna present in a natural environment is difficult to monitor there will be a problem of early detection of the presence of the disease on the territory This is a risk factor for emergence because an absence or a delay in detection will allow the virus to expand without control measures 13 no There is no increase in interactions between the animal populations concerned by the disease If the disease is introduced in Belgium it will probably happen via the wild avifauna An increase in interactions between the animal populations concerned by the disease should be a risk factor for emergence 1 through the increase in risk for viral transmission to domestic poultry and 2 in case of increase in interactions between poultry and pigs for example farms associating poultry and pork production through the increase in risk for viral transmission to pigs which can be a center of viral recombination leading to the emergence of new
208. on between the animal compartments concerned by the disease dogs and sheep This represent a risk factor for transmission of the disease and for emergence 14 yes 0 There is an increase in interactions between canids and humans This has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal population because humans do not retransmit the parasite 15 0 sacks no significant demographic growth in Belgium The emergence of the disease is not influenced by a human demographic growth 16 no ypa There is no growth of the animal populations concerned by the disease Such a growth would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 17 Yes 0 Human traveling is increasing This has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population since humans do not retransmit the parasite to animals 18 Yes aM There is an increase in touristic activities This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in dogs increased probability of eating offal of intermediate hosts such as sheep carcasses 19 Yes There is an increase in trade of dogs This can be a risk factor for importation of infected dogs a weak risk factor for emergence weak because the disease is already endemic in Belgium 20 Yes There is an increase in transport of dogs This be a risk factor for dispersion of infected dogs and a weak risk factor for emergence weak because the disease is already endemic in Belgium 21 yes 0 T
209. on d un commentaire placez le curseur dans la cellule et via le menu Insertion cliquez sur Commentaire Vous pouvez galement introduire des r f rences bibliographiques via cette fonction Commentaire Au bout de chaque ligne et en bas de chaque colonne du tableau des espaces sont galement pr vus pour des commentaires et des suggestions vitez de laisser des cases vides Si vous h sitez r pondez et ins rez un commentaire Apr s une premi re analyse des r sultats obtenus un feed back vous sera donn 32 Les r sultats de cette tude permettront au groupe de travail d identifier des groupes de facteurs de risque de protection par maladie par groupe de maladies par exemple les maladies potentiellement mergentes ou de mani re globale pour l ensemble des maladies La quantification des facteurs permettra de les hi rarchiser par ordre d importance Ceci permettra au Comit scientifique de formuler un avis avec des recommandations en mati re d early warning de vigilance de surveillance de monitoring de lutte etc Cet exercice est destin d une part a servir de base pour l mission d un avis par le Comit scientifique et d autre part une publication scientifique Nous comptons donc galement sur votre collaboration pour un traitement confidentiel de ce dossier Si vous n y voyez pas d objection votre nom sera mentionn dans l avis du Comit scientifique aupr s des experts qui
210. on of the agent alimentaire Animal reservoir Persistence of the agent in the Problem of detection of environment emergence directe Animal reservoir Difficulty to control disease by Carrier without clinical signs vaccination asymptomatic indirecte Contact between domestic Animal reservoir Epidemiological role of wildlife animals and wildlife inhalation Extension in geographical Increase in incidence new cases Carrier without clinical signs distribution of the agent in another country ies asymptomatic environnement Persistence of the agent in the environment Long incubation period in animals Lack of knowledge of pathogenesis Caract re oui Animal reservoir Difficulty to control disease by Problem of detection of zoonotique vaccination emergence non Extension in geographical Problem of detection of Increase in incidence new cases distribution of the agent emergence in another country ies 129 Annexe 12 Recommandations sp cifiques Les tableaux ci dessous reprennent des recommandations sp cifiques pour les diff rents facteurs de risque Ces recommandations sont des donn es brutes et ne sont pas prioritis es Une prioritistion ainsi qu une tude de faisabilit pourront tre r alis es ult rieurement en concertation avec les gestionnaires de risque Probl mes de d tection de l mergence Sous cat gories du facteur de risque Recommandations Mesure concr t
211. onfiance 95 sont calcul s sur base d une distribution normale L axe des abcisses repr sente la force de l influence des facteurs sur le risque d mergence des maladies selon les scores donn es par les experts voir explications l annexe 4 Les valeurs positives indiquent les facteurs de risque La valeur 0 indique une absence d influence du facteur Les valeurs n gatives indiquent les facteurs de protection Les 6 facteurs de risque indiqu s en rouge repr sentent les facteurs de risque ayant l occurrence la plus lev e pour l ensemble des sc narios selon l annexe 11 Les facteurs indiqu s en vert sont consid r s comme des facteurs de protection Sc nario 1 Facteurs de risque d mergence des maladies animales consid rant la sant animale dans son ensemble Ce sc nario est pr sent dans le texte de l avis dans le chapitre relatif aux r sultats point 2 3 2 116 iques t ieuses zoono les infect les anima 2 Facteurs de risque d mergence des malad 5 t syewue 5 5 uo uodsuei u 1 e ay TIBI m J yjoue ul 89562 _ amp appi JO 9101 jeolBojo 1 Aq aseasip o1juo 4 1 Alejiues uone si687 _ 4 amp
212. onses r sultant clairement d un probl me d interpr tation etc Pour la quantification des moyennes num riques des scores des experts majoritaires ont t calcul es et reconverties en valeurs signe pour la suite de l enqu te De cette mani re pour chaque maladie et pour chaque facteur de risque ou de protection une proposition de consensus a t formul e sous forme d une valeur signe qui repr sente la moyenne de la majorit des experts par donn e Chaque proposition de consensus a t assortie d une interpr tation en anglais elle m me appuy e par des justifications scientifiques issues de la litt rature scientifique Un exemple est propos l annexe 6 Les interpr tations ou justifications scientifiques avaient pour objectif d exprimer les id es v hicul es par les propositions de consensus afin de ne pas reproduire les erreurs d interpr tation de la phase 1 au cours de la phase 2 Les justifications scientifiques ont t valid es et ou corrig es par des experts externes pour les maladies virales et bact riennes avant la phase 2 de l enqu te Cette proposition de consensus a servi de base la seconde phase de l enqu te Delphi e Phase 2 Les 50 experts qui avaient particip a la premi re phase ont t a nouveau sollicit s par une lettre explicative annexe 7 leur demandant de participer a la seconde phase de l enqu te Le taux de participation a la p
213. or emergence 9 a 0 The virus does not persist in the environment Since the transmission needs a vectorial action a persistence in the environments would have no influence on the risk for emergence 10 __ There are no measures capable to limit the extension of the disease because of the impossibility to take measures against ticks and wild small mammals The pasteurization of the milk of infected cows is a protection factor of the human population 11 no 0 This disease is not concerned by this factor 12 yes There are difficulties to detect the disease in ticks and wild small mammals and also probably difficulties of field detection of this etiology in diseased cattle Problems of detection are risk factors of emergence of the disease 13 There is no increase in interactions between animals compartments concerned by the disease small mammals cattle for ticks no 0 see last point Such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence because the transmission needs the action of a tick 14 There is no increase in interactions between animals concerned by the disease small mammals cattle and humans for ticks no 0 see last point Such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence because the transmission needs the action of a tick 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The disease is not concerned by a human demographic growth 16 0 There is no g
214. ore cattle have the xe possibility to graze different pastures the more the probability of infection is higher 20 There is an increase in transport of cattle This represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease because the more the cattle yes have the possibility to grass different pastures the more the probability of infection is higher 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 Be __ There are intensive cattle production systems in Belgium This contributes to the protection against the emergence of the disease because cattle kept indoor receive feed less at risk than cattle kept on pastures 23 There are extensive cattle production systems in Belgium This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease because of es the cattle kept outdoor pastures 24 yes Live cattle are asymptomatic and this represents a risk factor for emergence lack of detection 29 yes There exists an animal reservoir cattle and this represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 ng 0 There is no long incubation period in cattle but the incubation period has no influence on the risk for emergence because only slaughtered animals meat are capable to transmit the disease to humans During its live the animal is not infectious 27 There are contacts between domestic cattle and wildlife but this has no influence on the risk for emergence
215. ose bovine Cysticercus bovis Taenia saginata Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification 50 yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no 0 There is no genetic variability A genetic variability would have no influence on the risk for emergence of this disease 2 AG There is no lack of knowledge on the pathogenesis of this disease A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 a There is no change in the pathogenesis of the disease A change in pathogenesis could always represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease 4 There exists a vaccine offering a protection of 99 8 but which is not commercially available The lack of available vaccine is a yes risk factor for emergence of the disease Lightowlers MW Rolfe R Gauci CG Taenia saginata vaccination against cysticercosis in cattle with recombinant oncosphere antigens Exp Parasitol 1996 84 330 338 5 no 0 There is no possibility of passage of the species barrier and this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 6 The disease is zoonotic humans are host for the adult stages of taenia saginata Because humans occasionnally retransmit the infection this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 7 0 There is no geographical extension of the disease A geographical extension would have no in
216. ot But globally the disease is the same Changes in pathogenesis would represent a risk factor for emergence 4 There is a human vaccine which is not commercially available however for the public only for some exposed persons such as the yes military or for research workers the protection is short term 6 months it is impossible to vaccine the rats The absence of vaccination is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 The bacteria can already infect rats cats dogs rabbits etc Because the bacteria are genetically stable there is no possibility to no change this host spectrum The possibility to change the host spectrum is always a risk factor for emergence of the disease in this new host 6 yes The disease is zoonotic Because humans are capable to retransmit the infection to animals or to other humans this factor represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 7 There is an extension of the geographical distribution of the agent the disease is currently endemic in several parts of the world in yes the XXth century Africa Asia North and South of America but not in Europe This is an important risk factor for emergence Europe and in our country 8 Recently there has been an outbreak in North Africa and reappearance in several countries worldwide currently not in Europe yes The disease is considered by the WHO as a re emergent disease on world scale Because fleas and rats do not recog
217. ot necessary for the transmission of the infection because the transmission is tick borne However indirect contacts between these two animal populations via their respective ecosystems containing ticks favor the transmission of the disease by infected ticks and represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic animal population 28 yes The wild fauna small sylvatic mammals cervidae has a fundamental epidemiological role because it is the reservoir of the bacteria and can re infect the ticks This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease because of the difficulties to control the wild fauna 29 no There is no increase in the demography distribution of the wildlife except wild cervidae An increase in the wild fauna population is a risk factor for emergence of the disease because of the epidemiological role of the wildlife see factors 3 2 and 3 5 30 yes There are climatic and meteorological changes more rains in the winter and more dryness in the summer for example which can 45 induce changes in the distribution and activity of the ticks Ixodes ricinus live in temperate regions biotope high humidity and the ticks are twofold more active and mobile when the weather is warm and dry Climatic changes could constitute a risk factor for emergence of the disease via a modification of the ecosystems which could become more favorable to the prolifer
218. oupes de maladies ainsi que de mani re globale pour l ensemble des maladies en consid rant la sant animale dans son ensemble Cette tude a aussi permis d mettre des recommandations 1 2 Contexte l gislatif L arr t royal du 20 novembre 2009 relatif l agr ment des m decins v t rinaires oblige la d claration obligatoire l AFSCA en cas de pr sence d une augmentation soudaine de la morbidit ou de la mortalit caus e par une des maladies de la liste de l Organisation Mondiale de la Sant Animale OIE Il vise donc la d claration obligatoire des maladies animales dans un contexte d mergence 1 3 D finitions dans le cadre de cet avis Maladie animale Toma ef 2001 tat de sant morbide due un agent pathog ne s vissant dans une population animale sensible Une maladie animale peut tre infectieuse due a un agent pathog ne qui se multiplie dans l animal atteint transmissible dont l agent peut tre transmis et retransmis a d autres animaux et ou contagieuse transmise par contact direct ou indirect avec un animal infect source de l agent pathog ne Zoonose Maladie ou infection qui se transmet naturellement des animaux vert br s l homme et vice versa Toma et al 1991 Maladie mergente maladie pr sente en Belgique et dont l incidence r elle nombre de nouveaux cas d animaux malades augmente significativement dans une population animale donn e d une r gion donn
219. ous disease Detection in wild boars is also difficult These are risk factors of emergence of this high contagious disease The performance of the tests is not a problem 13 n There are increasing contacts between domestic pigs outdoor and wild boars This increases the risk for transmission of the yes A disease to domestic pigs from the wild fauna This is a risk factor for emergence 14 0 There are no increasing interactions between humans and pigs boars populations in Belgium Since the disease is not zoonotic such an increase should not have any influence on the risk for emergence 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium No influence of a human demographic growth 16 There is no increasing pigs population currently in Belgium but Flanders is a region with a high density pig population An increase yes should represent a risk factor for emergence because a high density of the swine population should favor the spread of the disease 17 yes Human traveling is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence associated with the risk for importation of contaminated meat or meat products 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence associated with the risk for importation of contaminated meat meat products 19 r There is an increase in trade Importation of risk products meat from infected animals and from prevalent countries in which the
220. pastures appears to be a risk factor for the disease 12 The disease is clinically very easy to diagnose Because alerting for the emergence of seasonal clinical series may enable to no take temporarily preventive measures the easy diagnosis prevents the emergence Problems of detection of the disease would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 There is in general an increase in interactions between horses competitions but it is unknown if this is a risk factor for emergence because it is unknown if the disease is transmissible It is assumed that interactions have no influence on the risk for we emergence Horses affecetd by atypical myopathy are not in competition Most of them are non working horses kept at pasture The use for work is a protective factor for the condition 14 There no increases in interactions between horses and humans An increases would represent a risk factor because horses might be more often kept in badly managed pastures which is a risk factor for developing the disease 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium Non zoonotic diseases are not concerned by human demographic growth 16 no 0 There is no growth of the equine population A growth in the population would have no effect the risk for emergence 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing Disease not concerned by an increase in human traveling 18 yes 0 Human tourism is inc
221. pement de tests rapides Excr tion intermittente d tection par des m thodes de diagnostic indirectes s rologie Augmentation de l incidence nouveaux cas dans un d autre s pays 132 Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de risque Mesure concr te Surveillance vigilance tude gestion scientifique Vigilance accrue de la situation internationale par l autorit comp tente o Monitoring de sources non officielles google o Consultation des alertes de la litt rature Pays voisin collaboration structur e en surveillance aux fronti res ex faune pid miosurveillance avec les sauvage pays voisins Pays de l UE contr le du commerce surveillance intracommunautaire et des mouvements Pays tiers Contr le des importations surveillance R le pid miologique de la faune sauvage Sous cat gories du facteur de risque Recommandations Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude gestion scientifique bios curit surveillance de la faune sauvage cibler des esp ces animales d int r t Manque de connaissance de la pathog nie Sous Recommandations cat gories du Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude facteur de scientifique risque Pathog ne o Pas de mesure de o Surveillance si des compl tement gestion possible m thodes existent nouv
222. portant risk factor because movements of infected animals can be responsible for the dissemination of the disease in new areas cf outbreak in Egypt 21 yes There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 yes There are intensive production systems for ruminants in Belgium The high density of the animal population increases the risk for infection higher transmission rates and of emergence 23 yes There are extensive production systems for ruminants in Belgium The presence of animals on the pasture increases the risk for contact with the vectors and the risk for emergence 24 no There are no asymptomatic infected animals but the infection can sometimes pass inapparently Asymptomatic animals can disseminate the infection without being detected confined or treated This is a risk factor for emergence 25 no There is no animal reservoir for RVF valider If an animal reservoir existed it would represent a risk factor for emergence 26 no 0 The incubation period of RVF is not especially long The length of the incubation period has no influence on the risk for emergence because the vectors do not need the presence of clinical signs to prick animal and transmit the viruses 27 yes There are possibilities of proximity contacts between domestic and wild ruminants Proximity between the two animal populations favou
223. que le r chauffement climatique Parmi les facteurs de risque certains sont complexes et peuvent englober plusieurs sous cat gories voir Recommandations annexe 12 L int r t principal de ce travail concerne early warning car une d tection d apparition ou d augmentation d incidence d un facteur de risque peut alerter le gestionnaire de risque de l mergence possible de pathog nes nouveaux Si un facteur de risque important apparaissait ou augmentait l attention devrait tre attir e sur les maladies concern es par ce facteur de risque Par exemple une augmentation tr s importante d une population de tiques en Belgique peut annoncer 15 l mergence de maladies exotiques ou m me de maladies inconnues qui peuvent tre r v l es Le Comit scientifique a d j hi rarchis des zoonoses et des maladies animales surveiller selon leur importance avis 22 2008 concernant la surveillance des zoonoses alimentaires et avis 26 2009 addendum 05 2010 10 2010 et 20 2012 concernant la surveillance des maladies animales dans le cadre de la nouvelle potilique sanitaire Cette approche ci est compl mentaire dans le sens o propose une hi rarchisation de facteurs de risque Le message de cet avis est donc d voluer vers un concept compl mentaire a la surveillance des maladies animales qui consiste en un monitoring plus g n rique des facteurs de risque qui influencent la probabilit d mergence des mal
224. r the risk for emergence of this disease 12 yes Because the disease concerns the wild fauna there are problems of detection of the emergence Problems of detection of the emergence is a risk factor for emergence 13 There are no increases in interactions between wild rodents and other animal populations Interactions between animal n populations are a risk factor for transmission to domestic animal populations cats dogs pigs cattle and of viral adaptation to no Pw these new hosts This is a risk factor for emergence in new animal populations If the virus adapts to these domestic animal populations this is also a risk for transmission to humans 14 yes ypa Diverse human activities are increasing such as the capture of rodents the breeding of rodents fight against vermin hunting etc These are risk factors of infection of humans and of emergence in the human population 15 ng 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium and a demographic growth should have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 49 16 yes is a growth of the rodent population in Belgium A growth of the rodent population is a risk factor for emergence of the isease 17 n Human traveling is increasing This increases the risk for importation of an infected animal risk for emergence in the animal yes population or the risk for
225. ractions between humans and animal populations concerned by the disease due to the proximity yes between the reservoir rodent populations and the human activities extension of the peri urban zones or due to contacts with cats Because humans are capable to retransmit the disease to animals or other humans this could be a risk factor for emergence if the disease was prevalent in Europe 15 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium A human demographic growth could create conditions for an increase in no the transmission of the disease from animals to humans and between humans if such a growth was accompanied by a decrease in general hygiene for example waste discharges in big cities 16 yes There is a growth of the rodent population in Belgium This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 17 Human traveling is increasing The bacteria can spread via rodents vectors accompanying international human movements yes International air traveling represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 18 Human tourism is increasing The bacteria can spread via rodents vectors accompanying international human movements The yes eco tourists are a risk population if they travel in endemic regions International air traveling represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 19 The rodents are not directly concerned by the trade but such as for traveling and tourism international trade fr
226. ral cases in Belgium each year this represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 There are intensive cattle production systems in Belgium Although the introduction of the bacteria in such intensive mostly yes closed systems can be easily controlled the promiscuity of the cattle in closed spaces can favor the transmission of the bacteria once introduced Intensive production systems are a weak risk factor for emergence of the disease 59 23 There are extensive cattle production systems in Belgium Because of the possibilities of contact with the wild fauna this bite aay represents a risk factor of introduction of the infection in the herd and a risk factor for emergence 24 Although there can be intern lesions due to M tuberculosis detection on the carcass at the slaughterhouse most of cattle are yes asymptomatic which allows the transmission of the infection without being detected This is a risk factor for dispersion and for emergence of the disease 25 There is an animal reservoir in the wild fauna badgers in cattle the domestic animal reservoir the disease is mostly eradicated 13 This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 9 26 There be a long period between infection and appearance of clinical signs months or years
227. rdes G H Rift Valley fever Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 613 23 Gilbert M Slingenbergh J And Xiao X Climate change and avian influenza Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2008 27 2 459 66 Higgins R Emerging or re emerging bacterial zoonotic diseases bartonellosis leptospirosis Lyme borreliosis plague Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 2 569 81 King L J Maladies zoonotiques mergentes et r mergentes d fis et opportunit s 72 session g n rale de Organisation mondiale de la Sant animale Comit international Paris 23 28 mai 2004 Lobet M Stroobant A Mertens R Van Casteren V Walckiers D Masuy Stroobant G et al Tool of validation of the network of sentinel general practitioners in the Belgian health care system Int J Epidemiol 1987 16 612 8 Martin V Chevalier V Ceccato P Anyamba A De Simone L Lubroth J de La Rocque S and Domenech J The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2008 27 2 413 26 Mas Coma S Valero M A and Bargues M D Effects of climate change on animal zoonotic helminthiases Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2008 27 2 443 52 Morse S S Factors and determinants of disease emergence Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 2004 23 443 51 Purse B V Brown H E Harrup L Mertens P P C and Rogers D J Invasion of bluetongue and other orbivirus infections i
228. re climatic and meteorological changes No influence of climatic changes on the risk for emergence of classical rabies of 106 carnivores 31 no 0 No influence of changes in ecosystems on the risk for emergence of classical rabies of carnivores 32 yes ww There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Urbanisation is a protection factor against emergence since dogs kept in an urban environment are less likely to come into contact with wildlife in contrast to farm dogs or hunting dogs 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease No influence on the risk for emergence Peste Yersinia pestis Bengis et al 2004 Higgins 2004 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 ae There is enormous genetic variability including virulence plasmid content between strains belonging to different biovars and geographical origin This is a risk factor for emergence of new strains 2 ng aM Yersinia are well known bacteria This knowledge allows a good prophylaxis and is a protection factor against emergence Lacks of knowledge are always risk factors for emergence 3 There are no changes in pathogenesis Some strains are more virulent than others some tend to cause a disease often evolving no towards the pneumonic form which can be transmitted to other individuals by air vector no longer required others do n
229. rease of incidence in neighboring countries An increase in incidence would represent a risk factor 9 The bacteria grow strictly intracellularly and are not capable to survive in the environment outside the vector the ticks are not No 0 considered as environment The persistance in the environment would have no effect on the risk of emergence because the transmission necessitates a vector bite 10 There is no legislation and there are no official sanitary measures Knowing the epidemiology of the disease the transmission is No 0 obligatory vectorial and ticks are difficult to control by legislation impossibility to control the infection of the animal population by ticks the existence of a legislation for animals would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in animals 11 No 0 The disease is not influenced by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 There are problems of detection of the emergence lack of knowledge by the breeders veterinarians and by the medical world Yes resulting in a lack of diagnosis and an underestimation of the disease Mammals remain asymptomatic carriers for life The lack of detection of the disease is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 Yes There are increased interactions between the animal compartments concerned by the disease The proximity between the several animal hosts increases the probability of bites by infected ticks This is a risk factor for
230. reasing Disease not concerned by an increase in tourism 19 yes 0 No influence of an increase in horses trade 20 yes 0 No influence of an increase in number of horse transports 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 a There no intensive horse production systems in Belgium Intensive production systems overgrazing more animals on small pastures can increase the risk for emergence 81 23 There are extensive production systems for horses in Belgium pasture Because atypical myopathy is a pasture associated yes disease stabling decreases the risk extensive production systems animals on pasture can increase the risk for emergence of the disease 24 Asymptomatic horses i e subclinically affected horses exist but they should not be considered as potential carriers but rather as no 0 horses temporarily affected These horses are not susceptible to transmit the atypical myopathy because the disease is rather associated to grazing than to an infectious agent The subclinical infection has no influence on the risk for emergence 3 0 There no known animal reservoirs susceptible to transmit the disease No influence the risk for emergence 26 a 0 The incubation period is not long although one week of grazing is necessary before the appearence of the clinical signs Since the
231. reinforced in case of emergence in animals 11 yes Some strains of E coli contaminate the meat or meat products during the processes of food production For example accidental contaminations can be amplified by the process and spread in numerous batches of minced meat or hamburgers So this factor is a risk factor Some modifications of breeding practices or of alimentary habits could also lead to the emergence of the disease Otherwise some changes in the technological or industrial processes could also have protective effects for example some technologies better hygienic conditions in the slaughterhouse 12 yes There exist some problems of detection of emergence For example in animals the prevalence is probably underestimated due to the fact that animals are asymptomatic healthy carriers that the number of bacteria per gram of sample is sometimes below the detection limit of the test and because of the intermittent shedding In humans there is still no reimbursment of diagnosis for 0157 H7 by INAMI and these analyses are not included in the RIZIV nomenclature As a consequence only a few specialists ask an analysis for EHEC 0157 H7 even in presence of blood diarrhea and only a few laboratories detect this pathogen In case of large food borne outbreak the lack of a rapid diagnostic will impede rapid reactions and control measures Otherwise the diagnostic tests are very efficient for the diagnosis of 0157 H7
232. rently there no indications that the species barrier be passed The syndrome only affects horses No influence on the risk for emergence 6 no 0 No possibility of transmission to humans No influence on the risk for emergence 7 There is a geographical extension of the disease the disease is present since 2000 in Belgium and is present in most of the yes European countries This expansion may be due to a modification the environment rather than to any effect of an infectious agent This extension is a risk factor particularly since the pathogenesis is unknown 8 yes Since about ten years an increase in incidence emergence is observed This is a risk factor of emergence of the disease 9 Pastures at risk have been identified but this may be due to topographical specific environmental conditions rather than to the no presence persistence of an infectious agent The disease is especially observed in horses on pastures in the spring or the fall If the agent persisted in the environment that would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 10 no 0 There is no legislation This has no impact on the risk for emergence because the etiological agent is unknown 11 Most of horses affected by atypical myopathy belong to persons poorly informed about how to manage a pasture Lack of yes technological knowledge is more often the reason of the poor quality of the pasture Poor quality of
233. resent a risk factor of emergence 10 There are legislations and sanitary policy measures disease of the list of OIE existence of recommended norms for the yes surveillance slaughtering of the herd in case of outbreak control of the trade of the bovines control of the meet at the slaughterhouses etc These measures are protection factors against the emergence of the disease TI 0 Me disease is not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes No influence on the risk for emergence of the isease 12 There are several problems of detection of emergence which represent risk factors for emergence of the disease 1 there are yes yppa chronic infected asymptomatic animals difficult to diagnose and which are responsible for the silently persistence and propagation of the disease 2 the veterinarians and the breeders will have difficulties to recognize the first cases in case of outbreak 3 there are less pathogenic strains causing untypical problems 13 There no increases interactions between the bovine populations at national level Increases interactions should represent a risk factor for emergence because interactions increase the possibilities of transmission of the disease 14 no 0 The disease is not concerned by the human population 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The disease is not concerned by the human demography 16 io yg There is no gro
234. rio de ranking les trois choix arbitraire de ce nombre 3 facteurs de risque les plus importants L occurrence de ces facteurs de risque pour l ensemble des sc narios a t compt e et les six choix arbitraire de ce nombre 6 facteurs de risque ayant l occurrence la plus lev e sont cit s ci dessous par ordre d croissant la pr sence d un r servoir animal les probl mes de d tections de l mergence les difficult s de contr ler les maladies par la vaccination l extension g ographique de la maladie la pr sence d animaux porteurs asymptomatiques l augmentation d incidence de la maladie dans d autres pays Seuls ces 6 facteurs de risque ayant l occurrence la plus lev e sont mis en vidence dans un souci de clart mais les autres facteurs de risque ont galement leur importance La l gislation la police sanitaire et les syst mes de production intensifs ont t identifi s comme facteurs de protection contre l mergence des maladies animales infectieuses Cette tude a envisag les facteurs de risque et de protection de fa on monofactorielle mais les raisons de l mergence d une maladie sont souvent multifactorielles et r sultent de l action combin e de plusieurs facteurs de risque d mergence Par exemple l augmentation du transport peut r sulter en l introduction d une esp ce de vecteur dont le maintien dans nos cosyst mes est permis un second facteur de risque tel
235. risk for transport of infected animals or animal products 9 yes The prion can persist in the environment This favours the transmission between animals and is a risk factor for emergence 10 yes The existing legislation is an important protection factor against the emergence of the disease 11 There are changes in the technological or industrial processes BSE appeared namely because of the changes in the industrial yes processes of production of meat and bone meals This is a risk factor for emergence of prion diseases Technological changes could also lower the risk 12 yes There is a problem of declaration of the clinical signs by farmers and a lack of sensibility of the diagnostic test These are risk factors of emergence 13 no yg There are no increases in interactions between animal populations concerned by the disease Since scrapie and other TSE as well as CWD are transmissible increases in interactions would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 14 0 There is no increase in interactions between ruminants and humans Since the disease is not known to be zoonotic increases in interactions should not have any influence on the risk for emergence 15 ne 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium Since the disease is not zoonotic a human demographic growth should not have any influence on the risk for emergence 16 yes mn There is currently an increase in the goat popul
236. rowth of the domestic animal populations concerned by the disease Such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 17 i Human traveling is increasing This is a risk factor for infection of humans and of emergence in the human population This implies yes i also a risk for importation of infected ticks via planes 18 yes Human tourism is increasing forest tourism campers picking hunting naturalists This is a risk factor for emergence in humans but not in animal populations 19 no 0 The increase in trade does not concern ticks nor wild small mammals 20 no 0 The increase in transports does not concern ticks nor wild small mammals 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 ce n There are intensive production systems concerning cattle decreasing the risk for being infected by ticks This is a protection factor against emergence in the cattle population 23 yes There are extensive production systems concerning cattle increasing the risk for being infected by ticks This is a risk factor for emergence in the cattle population 110 24 There is no asymptomatic carriage An asymptomatic carriage would have no influence on the risk for emergence because tick ng 0 bites do not depend the presence of clinical signs 25 yes The animal reservoirs
237. rs the viral transmission through the vectors This is a risk factor for dispersion of the disease 28 no The epidemiological role of the wild ruminant population has yet to be studied If the wild fauna played an epidemiological role this would represent a risk factor 29 yes 0 There is an increase in the demography of wild cervids Since wildlife does not play any epidemiological role this has no influence on the risk for emergence 30 yes There are climatic and meteorological changes longer periods of heat and more intensive rainfall This is a risk factor for emergence because heat and rain have an influence on the geographical distribution of mosquitoes populations reproduction sites depends on the presence of water rains floods etc Localized rains have no influence but strong persistent rain periods occuring after a drought accompanied by durable floods allow hatching of eggs and the establishment of large populations of mosquitoes The virus could persist during months in the mosquitoe s eggs and could replicate again during the development to the larvae stadium during the strong rains 31 no Currently there no ecological changes in Belgium which could favour the emergence of the disease for example dams irrigation zones favouring the development of mosquito populations Belgium is a densely populated region with intensive use of the soils decr
238. s R Ducatelle UGent Le Comit scientifique remercie L Herman Sci Com et L Pussemier Sci Com pour le peer review de l avis Cadre juridique de lavis Loi du 4 f vrier 2000 relative la cr ation de l Agence f d rale pour la S curit de la Cha ne alimentaire notamment l article 8 Arr t royal du 19 mai 2000 relatif a la composition et au fonctionnement du Comit scientifique institu aupr s de l Agence f d rale pour la S curit de la Cha ne alimentaire R glement d ordre int rieur vis l article 3 de l arr t royal du 19 mai 2000 relatif a la composition et au fonctionnement du Comit scientifique institu aupr s de l Agence f d rale pour la S curit de la Cha ne alimentaire approuv par le Ministre le 09 juin 2011 Disclaimer Le Comit scientifique conserve tout moment le droit de modifier cet avis si de nouvelles informations et donn es arrivent sa disposition apr s la publication de cette version 22 Annexe 1 Caract ristiques principales des exemples de maladies s lectionn es dans le cadre de cette tude Maladie Etiologie Zoono se H tes s Voie s de transmission Maladies pr valentes en Belgique soit l tat end mique soit l tat sporadique et pour lesquelles un risque d mergence augmentation d incidence peut exister o end miques 1 Bab siose bovine Babesia oui bovins Vecteur tiques d
239. s has no influence on the risk for emergence because the yes 0 transmission of the parasite ingestion of infected matters from humans does not involves a direct contact between animals and because wildlife does not play an epidemiological role 28 no 0 The wild fauna does not play an epidemiological role If the wildlife did play an epidemiological role this would have no influence on the risk for emergence because infection of swine comes from humans 29 There is a demographic growth of the wild boars population in Belgium Because the wild fauna does not play an epidemiological yes 0 role in the transmission of the disease to domestic cattle such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 31 yes 0 There are changes in the ecosystems produced by man but these have no influence on the risk of emergence of the disease 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanization in Belgium but which has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease Rage classique carnivores Lyssavirus g notype 1 Bengis et al 2004 Cliquet and Picard Meyer 2004 Factor Presence yes Impact risk Scientific justification 104 absence no protection no effect Lyssaviruses are RNA viruses which typi
240. s increases the risk for introduction of healthy carrier animals in free herds and represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 21 yes There is an increase in terrorism worldwide The bacteria could be used and increase the risk yes There are intensive production systems concerning the ruminants They represent a risk factor of expansion and of emergence of the disease because the bacteria present in small quantities can spread easily in high dense herds or when cattle from different origins is gathered in big production units 23 yes 0 There are extensive production systems for ruminants in Belgium but these have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal populations 24 yes Bovine are asymptomatic healthy carriers and can excrete the bacteria for a long time without being detected This is an important risk factor for emergence of the disease 25 yes The most important animal reservoir is cattle but pigs wild ruminants turkeys goats sheep boars also be rarely carriers of virulent germs and domestic animals birds rodents can also be sporadically carriers There are hypershedder carrier animals harboring high amounts of bacteria in their intestines during long periods The animal reservoir represent an important risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 no 0 The incubation period does not have any influence o
241. s les mati res f cales des renards chiens chats ou pr sents sur le sol contamin rongeurs et sur les fruits humains 23 chevaux sangliers humains 8 Coli 0157 H7 Coli O157 H7 oui Bovins autres Humains consommation de nourriture insuffisamment cuite contact pas les autres direct avec les animaux infect s ou les mati res f cales provenant serotypes EHEC d animaux infect s Animaux contact avec les mati res f cales d animaux infect s Sporadiques 9 Tuberculose bovine Mycobacterium oui Bovins Inhalation d a rosols contact consommation de nourriture contamin e bovis lait cru 10 Tular mie Francisella oui Rongeurs et Contact direct vecteur tiques inhalation de contaminations tularensis lagomorphes environnementales consommation de viande insuffisamment cuite ou d eau contamin e 11 Leishmaniose Leishmania oui Surtout les Vecteur phl botomes infantum chiens 12 Rage chez la Lyssavirus 1 et 2 oui Chauves souris Contact direct salive morsures chauve souris europ ens faune sauvage autres chiens chats ovins bovins etc 13 Anaplasmose Anaplasma Oui Nombreux Vecteur tiques phagocytophillum les mammif res humai bovins chevaux ns moutons ch vres sont chiens chats etc des h tes accide ntels Maladies pr sentes en Belgique et dont l incidence augmente mergence tablie et constat e
242. s of infected definitive hosts This has an influence on the continuation of the parasitic cycle and represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 28 Because foxes the reservoir the main definitive hosts responsible for the transmission of the parasite the wildlife plays es NE 2 important epidemiological role This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 29 The last ten years the population of foxes has increased and their distribution has extended have established in Flanders and in 99 peri urban zones This represent risk factor for dissemination and for emergence of the disease in free regions 30 Yes w There are climatic and meteorological changes The global warming could have a protective effect against the risk of emergence because the survival of the parasite is increased under cold climates Northern hemisphere 31 0 There are changes in the ecosystems produced by humans with a higher risk of emergence of the disease Control of rodents YES such as musk rats can on the other hand decrease the infection rate of foxes The result is no influence 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium and foxes move from the country side to the city This increases the risk of infection for the human urban population but not for the animal population 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease 54 Coli 0157 H7 Schlundt et al 2004 Factor
243. s responsible for the disease These are risk factors of emergence 14 There no increases in interactions between the cervid and human populations Since the disease is not transmissible to no 0 humans by contact there is no influence of an eventual increase in interactions between the animal and human populations on the risk for emergence 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The disease is not concerned by a human demographic growth 16 n The cervid population is increasing in Belgium This growth represents a risk factor for emergence because the disease is yes see transmissible 17 yes Human traveling is increasing This is a risk factor of emergence of the disease import via international hunters 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This is a risk factor of emergence of the disease import via international hunters 19 yes There is an increase in trade of cervids This is a risk factor for emergence through the risk for importation of infected animals 20 yes There is an increase in transport of cervids This is a risk factor for emergence through the risk for transport of infected animals in our country 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 yes aM There are intensive production systems of cervids in Belgium This favours the transmission of the disease amongst cervids Industrial feeding
244. se 1 The factor has no effect on the emergence of the animal disease of emergence of the animal disease of emergence of the animal disease decreases the risk increases the risk protection factor risk factor If necessary if applicable justify your choice by introducing a comment Menu Insertion gt Comment at the cell The relation influence between of the risk or protection factor and on the emergence of the animal disease is low moderate high very high 4 Line 7 estimate your own level of expertise for each disease for which you completed the exercise weak moderate high excellent 34 Annexe 6 Exemple de proposition de consensus servant de base pour la phase 2 de l enqu te Delphi Exemple Fi vre du Nil occidental 1 Factors related to the infectious agent Genetic variability mutation recombination etc There exist more virulent strains For example the severity of the expansion in the USA was due to 1 the immunologically naive status of the US population and 2 a particularly virulent strain Genetic variability is a risk factor if the There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis which could explain some emergences for example the poorly known role of vectors in the cycle maintenance dissemination of the virus the molecular deter
245. se is transmissible a geographical extension would represent a risk for emergence of the disease in Belgium yes There is an increase in incidence in other countries which countries This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 96 in Belgium mechanism 9 yes The prion can persist the environment what is responsible for the horizontal transmission The persistence the environment is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 10 __ The disease is poorly covered by the legislation because of the absence of cases in Belgium and in Europe A legislation should be a protection factor against the emergence of the disease 11 There are changes in the technological and industrial processes By analogy with the mechanism partly responsible of the yes emergence of BSE changes in processes are risk factors of emergence of the chronic wasting disease Technological changes could also lower the risk 12 yes The detection of the disease is difficult in wild cervids and also in domestic cervids due to the lenght of the incubation period These problems of detection of emergence are risk factors of emergence 13 yes aM There are increases in interactions between the cervidae populations Since CWD is transmissible the interactions between these animal populations favour the transmission of the prion
246. sease is not concerned by a human 56 demographic growth except if such a growth does modify certain breeding practices or alimentary habits see factor 2 2 16 no There is no growth of the cattle population in Belgium Such a growth would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease increase in the infection pressure 17 yes Human traveling is increasing This is probably the cause of worldwide distribution of the bacteria between 1982 and 1995 The bacteria are spread in the environment and can infect cattle This represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease in the animal population 18 yes Human tourism is increasing Humans can get infected for example in touristic farms through consumption of farm raw products vegetables fruit milk contaminated by feces from carrier animals or through narrow contacts with healthy carrier animals mostly children who do not wash their hands The human tourism is probably the cause of worldwide distribution of the bacteria between 1982 and 1995 The bacteria are spread in the environment and can infect cattle This represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease in the animal population 19 yes There is an increase in trade of ruminants This increases the risk for importation of healthy carrier animals and represents a risk factor for emergence 20 yes There is an increase in transport and of movements of ruminants Thi
247. sidering the intracommunity yes CRE transports of pigs the increase incidence country represents risk for introduction of the disease in Belgium 9 The virus is not very resistant in the environment maybe a few weeks after secretion excretion The reemergence in earlier Vaccinated boar populations is sometimes difficult to understand and the possibility of persistence in the environment will be no gt searched for in a research project on classical swine fever If the virus was capable to persist in the environment it should represent an important risk factor for emergence Here meat and frozen meat are not considered as environment 10 The sanitary measures taken in case of an outbreak for example slaughtering are protective factors against expansion of the yes disease if the sanitary measures are well applied Feeding with kitchen waste is now absolutely prohibited These measures are protection factors against emergence 11 no 0 This disease is not concerned by changes in technological or industrial processes 12 Since the last outbreaks date from several years there is a lack in practice experience of some farmers veterinarians leading to a yes risk for absence of early detection of the clinical signs of this high contagious disease There are pigs with subclinical infection leading to difficulties of detection Detection in wild boars is also difficult Con
248. sk for emergence of the disease in the animal populations 16 yes All the mammal species are concerned by the infection more studies have to be done to identify which animal species are excretory and via which pathways but the ruminants are currently the main host species The breeding of goats is a developing sector A high goat density is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing but because humans are terminal hosts do not retransmit the infection to animals this has influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population 18 yes 0 There are increases in tourism but because humans are terminal hosts do not retransmit the infection to animals this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population 19 yes There is an increase in trade of ruminants Because there is no European legislation imposing a control concerning Q fever an increase in trade in small ruminants is a risk factor for emergence risk for importation of infected animals risk for importation of a hyper virulent strain Food or livestock dealers vets which go form one fram to another can dispers the disease and are also risk 47 factors Since the bacteria are already ubiquitous and spread worldwide the quantification of the risk is difficult 20
249. smission of the disease More studies are needed concerning the epidemiological role of the wild fauna 30 yes 0 There are climatic and meteorological changes but the disease is not concerned by climatic changes 31 no 0 The disease is not concerned by ecological changes 32 yes There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium If this urbanisation is accompagnied with closer contact between farms and housing of people as demonstrated in Denmark this consitites a risk factor 33 no 0 Non vectorial disease Tuberculose bovine Mycobacterium bovis Bengis et al 2004 Abalos and Retamal 2004 Factor Presence Impact Scientific justification yes risk absence protection no no effect 1 no Mycobacteria are relatively genetically stable A genetic variability would represent a risk factor for emergence of new strains 2 ae Much is known about the pathogenesis of the disease except concerning some molecular aspects of the bacteria Lack of knowledge on the pathogenesis is always risk factors for emergence of the disease 3 Currently there are no known changes in the pathogenesis of the disease Changes in the pathogenesis of the disease such as no an increase in the virulence for humans or for a domestic animal species dog cat horse which is a theoretical possibility would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in these animal species
250. such increases in interactions would represent a risk factor for emergence 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium Non zoonotic disease and no influence of a demographic growth 16 Currently there no growths of the susceptible animal populations Because the animal density has an influence on the transmission rate such a growth would be a risk factor for emergence 17 yes Human traveling is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence risk for transport of materials infected by the resistant virus 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence risk for transport of materials infected by the resistant virus 19 yes There is an increase in trade Due to the high risk at importation living animals and freezed meat this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 20 yes ypa There is an increase in transport Due to the high risk at importation living animals and freezed meat this is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 21 n There is an increase in terrorism worldwide Currently the disease not concerned by bioterrorism If it was the case cf second World war this would be a risk factor for emergence 22 yes There are intensive production systems concerning the susceptible animal populations This is a risk factor for emergence 83 because a high animal density favours viral transmission
251. t geographical distributions of which certain could be more virulent than others However the genetic variability of obligate intracellular bacterial species is weak Moreover the lack of knowledge of the biology of the bacteria impedes the measure of the consequences of the genetic variability in this bacterial species A genetic variability represents always a risk factor for emergence yes There is a lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis of the disease biology of the bacteria changes of phase formation of resistant pseudospores etc This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease yes There are changes in the pathogenesis of the disease but the reasons of this are unknown for example the circulation of a potential hyper virulent strain in the Netherlands Changes in pathogenesis are always risk factors for emergence of the disease Yes In 2010 there was limited access to vaccins in Belgium The efficacy of the vaccine is limited as it protects again clinical signs but do not prevent infection or excretion so propagation of the infection even if vaccination is possible Moreover the efficiency of the vaccine has yet to be demonstrated against the different strains The difficulties concerning the vaccination are risk factors for emergence of the disease Yes There are possibilities of passage of the species barrier due to the fact that Coxiella may infect many mammal species and to
252. teria are transmissible to humans through healthy skin or by inhalation and because the infectious dose is very weak This represents a risk factor for emergence for humans but not for animals Note that the bacterium is very difficult to cultivate and that the risk is weak 22 yes There are intensive production systems of rabbits because there is no contact with the wild fauna which is the reservoir of the germ this constitutes a protection factor against emergence 23 yes There are extensive production systems of rabbits The possibility of contacts with the wild fauna and its dejections is a risk factor for emergence 24 yes Most of domestic cats and many wild animals foxes boars mustelidae are frequently asymptomatic carriers of the bacteria Cats can transmit the bacteria to humans Because the weak epidemiological role of these species it represents a weak risk factor for the emergence of the disease 25 yes Hares and rodents represent the wild reservoir of the disease Prairie dogs sporadically present in Belgium since 1980 also There is a possible trans ovarian transmission in ticks which are also considered as reservoir Because the wild fauna is difficult to control the wild animal reservoir is an important risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 no There is no long incubation period in the most sensitive animal species rodents and lagomorphs die after 1 to 2 we
253. terinarians not always declare these illegal imports if they are presented because of the conflict of interest client binding Veterinarians who do declare illegal imports resulting in euthanasia of the animal are bashed on internet fora This is an important risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 yes aM There are increases in interactions between animal compartments This can favour interspecies transmissions and is a risk factor for emergence 14 yes 0 There are increases in intercations between humans dogs foxes This increases the risk for infection of humans but since humans are dead end hosts this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease 105 15 ne 0 There is no significant demographic growth Belgium The emergence of the disease is not concerned by a demographic growth because humans are dead end hosts 16 no There is no increase in the dog population in belgium An increase would represent a risk factor for emergence 17 Human traveling is increasing Some travellers and animal rescue organisations adopt sick and abandonned animals in southern yes countries and circumvent deliberately or out of ignorance the existing legislation This is a risk factor for re emergence of the disease in Belgium 18 Human tourism is increasing Some travellers and animal rescue organisations adopt sick and abandonned animals in southern yes
254. the possibilities of changes in pathogenesis see factor 1 3 This possibility represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease in a new animal species 46 Yes 0 The disease is zoonotic However because humans do not retransmit the disease to animals this has no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population yes The bacteria are already present all over the world except in New Zealand The bacteria are already spread worldwide This is a risk factor for infection of new herds by new strains and a risk factor for emergence yes There have been several outbreaks in the Netherlands humans goats a neighbouring country This represents a risk factor for emergence of this potentially hyper virulent strain in our country yes Coxiella burnetii in the form of a pseudospore is highly resistant in the environment and is particularly volatile This is a risk factor of dispersion of the pathogenic agent and consequently a risk factor for emergence 10 yes Instructions have been transmitted to reduce the risk for human infection and of dispersion of the bacteria the surveillance monitoring is compulsory the notification is compulsory measures have to be taken in positive exploitations etc The legislation is only a weak protection factor against the expansion if the disease because the infection is already endemic 11 Yes 0 There are c
255. the infection the possibility of infection of other animal species and specially of the wild fauna which is an animal reservoir constitutes a risk factor for emergence of the disease yes The disease is transmissible to humans in which the bacteria is pathogenic But humans do not retransmit the infection Therefore humans do not play any epidemiological role in the maintenance of the disease and human infections have no 43 influence on the risk for emergence of the disease in the animal population yes The disease is already present in France Switzerland Germany Austria and is also endemic in Belgium There has been extension of the geographical distribution from Southern countries and the disease is in full development in Europe An extension of the geographical distribution of the disease is always a risk factor for emergence of the disease yes Each year 60 000 human cases are diagnosed in Europe 155 cases 100 000 habitants in some countries 5 000 to 10 000 human cases per year in France the incidence has increased since the years 1980 in France also cases in Belgium the Lyme borreliose has become the most frequent tick borne disease in the Northern hemisphere The disease is in full development in Europe The number of infected ticks has rapidly increased in Europe 30 of infected ticks in France 60 in Austria Because infected ticks can infect humans and animals the incr
256. there is a possibility of transmission of the disease to yes aM natural hosts such as dogs cats pigs cattle etc Altough this is at the present time not yet demonstrated this represent a potential risk factor for adaptation of the virus in these unnatural hosts This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in new animal species If the virus adapts to domestic animal populations this is a risk factor for infection of humans 6 yes 0 The disease is zoonotic Because humans have no epidemiological role this has no influence on the risk for emergence in the animal populations 7 yes of the virus is wide Europe This is risk factor for emergence because transmission through wildlife has no oundaries 8 n There are increases in incidence in other countries which countries This is a risk factor for emergence because transmission yes i through wildlife has no boundaries 9 yes Hantaviruses are resistant in the environment soils litters Because transmission occurs principally through inhalation of contaminated dust this is a risk factor for transmission and of emergence both for animals and humans 10 0 There no legislation nor sanitary policy measures against hantaviroses These should have no influence of the risk for emergence because the virus is in wild rodents and there is no possible control 11 no 0 No influence of changes in technological or industrial processes fo
257. through culico des This is a risk factor for dispersion of the disease 28 The wild fauna ruminants has an epidemiological role in the transmission of the disease because it is not very important yes TE reservoir It is a risk factor because wild fauna is difficult to control and vaccine 29 yes There is an increase in the wild cervids population Since wildlife plays a not important epidemiological role this is a risk factor for emergence 30 There are climatic and meteorological changes Global warming is a risk factor for emergence because higher temperatures yes aM increase the vectorial capacity and competence for BT virus increase the survival and activity of the vectors change the geographical distribution areas of these vectors Northern hemisphere In Belgium these changes are not so important and Culicoides was already there since a long time 31 yes There are few changes in the ecosystems favouring the presence of culicoides This is a weak risk factor for viral propagation 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium Urbanisation has no influence on the risk of emergence of the disease Culicoides have been seen in farms and barns Consequently urbanisation does not decrease nor increase the presence of culicoides 33 yes The vectors responsible for the transmission of the disease are present in Belgium Culicoides This is an important risk factor for establishment a
258. tiated from the animal aspects In humans the disease is mainly caused by a toxin Despite the principles of the vaccination against these toxins are clear its practical application is not yet evident In animals in which the toxins do not play any role because they are mostly healthy carriers the targets of vaccine represented by colonization factors However many characteristics remain to be discovered about these colonization factors and about the immune response of these healthy carriers and consequently the principles of the vaccination in animals remains unclear These uncertainties about the effect of the vaccination in animals and the lack of vaccines represent risk factors for emergence of the disease Yes The possibility of passage of the species barrier from cattle to sheep goats pigs turkeys or to a lesser extend to dogs cats birds etc could exists but assuming that the genetic variability truly exists in our timescale Such strains could acquire virulence factors allowing them to colonize non primate and non ruminant hosts and induce diarrhea or more if endothelial cells of these new hosts own receptors specific to the toxins of these EHEC strains Adaptation to new animal hosts could increase the risk Yes The disease is zoonotic This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease in humans Transmission from humans to humans has been described and to animals is a possibility which will rarely
259. tion confiance avec les op rateurs du r sultat de laboratoire pour diminuer le seuil de d claration des maladies voir explications plus d taill es dans l avis 12 2010 du Comit scientifique Manque de guide pratique type Analyse sociologique des coordination entre brochure relations entre les acteurs de les maillons de la chaine mauvaise transmission des donn es o information liste de personnes de contact terrain v t rinaires et leveurs et l Agence pour identifier des solutions au probleme de sous d claration des maladies De cette mani re l Agence pourra d velopper des actions 130 concr tes pour am liorer la confiance avec les op rateurs Echantillons de o formations mauvaise qualit m thodes proc dures refroidissement d chantillonnage simples insuffisant lors du transport vers le laboratoire Tests de diagnostic communication entre Recherche scientifique sur les d lais d obtention l AFSCA et les acteurs de techniques de diagnostic des r sultats terrain r actions o management de laboratoire asp cifiques faible performance sensibilit R servoir animal Sous cat gories du facteur de Recommandations Mesure concr te de Surveillance vigilance tude risque gestion scientifique Faune sauvage ex Pr l vements chez des esp ces rongeurs animales cibles et conservation long terme
260. tomatic weak sensitivity of the visual inspection at the yes slaughterhouse and this can impede the detection of a possible increase in incidence This represents a risk factor for emergence of the disease 13 There is no increase in interactions between the concerned animal populations swine populations An increase in such no 0 interactions would have no influence on the risk for emergence of the disease because the transmission cycle of the parasite involves an indirect relation between humans and swine and no direct relation between swine 14 ag There is currently no increase in interactions between pork and human populations in Belgium Increases in interactions would represent a risk factor of transmission of the parasite in swine increase in exposition to human feces 15 o 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium The emergence of the disease is not influenced by a human demographic growth 16 no 0 There is no growth of the porcine population in Belgium Such an increase would have no influence on the risk for emergence of 103 the disease 17 Human traveling is increasing This increases the risk of human infection abroad and the risk of introduction of the parasite in the yes Belgian swine population emergence 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This increases the risk of human infection abroad and the risk of
261. tors that determine the virulence of the CSF isolate immunopathogenisis These lacks of pathogenesis are risk factors for emergence of the disease 3 o aM There are viral factors which determine the virulence of the CSF viruses This is a risk factor for emergence of more virulent strains 4 A good vaccine exists but preventive vaccination of domestic pigs is not authorized in Belgium which represent a difficulty to yes control the disease by vaccination Vaccination of wild boars is effective EFSA despite some difficulties due to the oral route of vaccination Vaccination is protective against emergence Difficulties concerning the vaccination are a risk factor for emergence of the disease 5 no 0 This disease concerns only domestic and wild suidae A crossing of the species barrier is improbable 6 no 0 Non zoonotic disease and no influence on the risk for emergence 7 There is currently no real geographical extension of the disease towards Belgium However the disease is present in wild boar in yes Germany but seems to be under control through the vaccination the situation in Romania and Bulgaria is unclear the situation in the Russian Federation is also unclear If there was a geographical extension towards Belgium this should represent a risk factor for emergence 8 There are increases in incidence of the disease in other countries for example in Germany Con
262. traints induced by the sanitary measures constitute un important risk factor of under notification These are risk factors of emergence The performance of the tests is not a problem 13 n There are increasing contacts between domestic pigs outdoor and wild boars This increases the risk for transmission of the yes Ay disease to domestic pigs from the wild fauna This is a risk factor for emergence 14 0 There are no increasing interactions between humans and pigs boars populations in Belgium Since the disease is not zoonotic such an increase should not have any influence on the risk for emergence 15 no 0 There is no significant demographic growth in Belgium No influence of a human demographic growth 16 yes There is no increasing pigs population currently in Belgium but Flanders is a region with a high density pig population An increase should represent a risk factor for emergence because a high density of the swine population should favor the spread of the 87 disease 17 yes Human traveling is increasing This is risk factor for emergence associated with the risk for importation of contaminated meat meat products 18 yes Human tourism is increasing This is a risk factor for emergence associated with the risk for importation of contaminated meat meat products 19 There is an increase in trade Importation
263. trang res ex fermes p dagogiques hygi ne formation Possibilit de changement de spectre d h te des animaux vers l homme Sous Recommandations cat gories du Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude facteur de scientifique risque Eviter contacts directs avec les animaux Pour mieux Meilleure interface entre les surveillance d tecter chez les animaux Pour mieux d tecter chez les humains autorit s de sant publique et les autorit s de sant animale Formation des m decins Elargissement du spectre de tests en m decine humaine Changements dans les proc d s technologiques et industriels Sous cat gories du facteur de Recommandations Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude risque scientifique Nouveaux valuation de risque des proc d s changements technologiques Changements dans les proc d s existant Proc d s zootechniques d h bergement des animaux densit alimentation Nettoyage r gulier o Alimentation safe o Gestion des d chets 138 vacuation des d chets all in all out etc o Good Slaughterhouse Durant l abattage Management Durant le processing du lait de la viande des oeufs HACCP Systemes de production intensifs Sous Recommandations cat gories du Mesure concr te de gestion Sur
264. ts top 3 de chacun des sc narios Sant animale dans toutes les Problem of detection of Difficulty to control disease by Animal reservoir ee son ensemble maladies emergence vaccination Situation Difficulty to control disease by Carrier without clinical signs pid miologique end miques vaccination asymptomatic des maladies sporadiques Difficulty to control disease by vaccination Animal reservoir Contact between domestic animals and wildlife Lack of knowledge of Extension in geographical Problem of detection of mergence bash ae pathogenesis distribution of the agent emergence Increase in incidence new cases Problem of detection of exotiques Animal reservoir in another country ies emergence Agent pathog ne Difficulty to control disease by Problem of detection cosa Animal reservoir bact ries vaccination emergence Extension in geographical Increase in incidence new cases Problem of detection of virus distribution of the agent in another country ies emergence parasites Difficulty to control disease by Carrier without clinical signs Animal reservoir 128 vaccination asymptomatic Persistence of the agent in the Problem of detection of Long incubation period in animals prions environment emergence Mode de vectorielle Presence of vector Extension in geographical Animal reservoir transmission distributi
265. uence on the risk for emergence of this disease 2 There are still important gaps in the factors that influence survival of the eggs in the environment and the way that intermediate yes hosts especially an aberrant host such as humans become infected with the eggs is this by ingestion of contaminated berries working in contaminated soil or by petting an infected pet dog More knowledge on the transmission pathways and their risk factors are needed A lack of knowledge represents always a risk factor for emergence 3 No There is no change in the pathogenesis A change in pathogenesis could always represent a risk factor of emergence of the disease 4 yes Vaccination against parasites is mostly problematic efficiency etc This is an important risk factor for emergence of the disease because in endemic zone all canids have to be considered as infected and able to transmit the parasite 5 No aM The parasite can already infect several animal species but due to the absence of genetic variability there is no possibility to infect additional animal species A passage of the species barrier would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease 6 Yes 0 The disease may be accidentally zoonotic Since humans do not excrete the parasite in the feces no definitive host and consequently are not capable to retransmit the disease there is no influence of the risk for emergence in the animal population 7 There is a geographical
266. ues maladies pr valentes maladies exotiques etc de diff rents types d h tes animaux domestiques faune sauvage diff rentes esp ces animales etc de diff rentes voies de transmission vectorielle directe alimentaire indirecte etc caract re zoonotique ou non Les r sultats de l tude pourront ainsi tre extrapol s d autres maladies pr sentant des caract ristiques similaires aux exemples choisis 34 maladies animales infectieuses ont ainsi t s lectionn es et r parties en plusieurs groupes et sous groupes selon leur situation pid miologique 1 maladies pr valentes en Belgique soit l tat end mique soit l tat sporadique et pour lesquelles un risque d mergence augmentation d incidence existe maladies end miques bab siose bovine brucellose porcine chez le sanglier maladie de Lyme fi vre hantavirose cysticercose bovine chinococcose Echinococcus multilocularis coli 157 7 maladies sporadiques tuberculose bovine tular mie leishmaniose rage chez la chauve souris 2 maladies pr sentes en Belgique et dont l incidence augmente mergence tablie et constat e fi vre catarrhale ovine Echinococcus granulosus art rite virale quine ent rite n crotique Clostridium perfringens chez la volaille enc phalopathie spongiforme transmissible EST atypique chez les petits r
267. uestion est Le facteur est il pr sent actuellement en Belgique pour la maladie dont il est question Dans la colonne jaune r pondre oui facteur pr sent ou non facteur absent l aide du menu d roulant La r ponse cette question doit se faire ind pendamment de la pr sence ou de l absence de la maladie actuellement en Belgique En effet un facteur de risque peut tre pr sent en Belgique sans pour autant que la maladie n y soit pr sente La deuxi me question est ind pendante de la r ponse la premi re question Le facteur diminue t il le risque d mergence de la maladie en question Si oui il s agit alors d un facteur de protection encodez l aide du menu d roulant dans la colonne bleue du tableau Excel augmente t il le risque d mergence de la maladie en question Si oui il s agit alors d un facteur de risque encodez l aide du menu d roulant dans la colonne bleue du tableau Excel n a pas d effet sur l mergence de la maladie en question Si c est le cas encodez 0 La r ponse la deuxi me question doit se faire ind pendamment de la r ponse la premi re question En d autres mots m me si le facteur n est pas pr sent actuellement en Belgique il faut quand m me r pondre la deuxi me question en raisonnant de mani re th orique c est dire imaginant que le facteur existe Il est n cessaire de r pondre
268. uld favour the transmission by the culicoides This would represent a risk factor for emergence of the disease in the domestic cattle population 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation in Belgium but the disease is not concerned by the urbanisation 33 yes The transmission is vectorial culicoides imicola obsoletus pulicaris This is an important risk factor for emergence through the possibility of dispersion from a neighbouring country Maladie du d p rissement chronique des cervid s EST prions Factor Presence yes absence no Impact risk protection no effect Scientific justification no There is no evidence of genetic variability genetic variability should represent a risk factor for emergence yes There is lack of knowledge of the pathogenesis There are few studies on the subject of chronic wasting disease The lack of knowledge of pathogenesis is a risk factor for emergence yes There are changes in pathogenesis for example some polymorphisms like the G96S polymorphism in white tail deer and S225F in mule deer seem to provide a reduced susceptibility the potential for genetic influences on susceptibility relating to the CWD strains identified in North America as well as to other TSE remains under investigation Theses changes in pathogenesis are risk factors of emergence yes There is no immunization against the TSEs
269. um The ability of RVF to extend in free areas is due to the high variety of vectors able to transmit the infection and to a sufficient vireamia in ruminants and humans to infect the mosquitoes There also exists a possibility for the wind to transport infected vectors from neighbouring areas Egypt yes There is an increased incidence in Africa but not in Europe If there would be an increased incidence in Europe this would represent a risk factor for Belgium because of the possibility of transboundary expansion on large distances via for example animal transport no The virus can not persist in the environment outside the vector Even if it was able to persist in the environment this would have no influence of the risk for emergence since transmission involves the action of a vector 10 yes There is a legislation mandatory notification disease and precautionary measures for example trade and transport controls differential diagnose in case of abortion These are protections factors against the emergence of the disease Recommendations to 1 establish a warning system to detect any abnormal increase in abortion neo and perinatal mortality associated to necrotic hepatitis in ruminants during the season of mosquitoes spring summer autumn and 2 define an emergency contingency plan 11 no 0 RVF is not concerned by changes in technological industrial processes 12 yes In case o
270. uminants myopathie atypique des quid s 3 maladies non pr sentes en Belgique exotiques et risque d introduction et de diss mination en Belgique maladies potentiellement r mergentes ou risque r mergence fi vre aphteuse peste porcine africaine peste porcine classique fi vre du Nil occidental fi vre de la vall e du Rift maladie h morragique pizootique maladie du d p rissement chronique des cervid s pleuropneumonie contagieuse bovine influenza aviaire hautement pathog ne cysticercose porcine rage classique des canid s peste enc phalites tiques enc phalopathie spongiforme bovine ESB atypique dirofilariose Les principales caract ristiques de ces maladies agent tiologique caract re zoonotique h tes voies de transmission sont reprises l annexe 1 Etape 2 Etablissement d une liste de facteurs de risque et ou de protection d mergence des maladies animales infectieuses et classement en domaines sur base du mod le de convergence King 2004 Le mod le de convergence de King 2004 permet de classer des facteurs sp cifiques d mergence des maladies zoonotiques en grands domaines parmi 2 L tude a t r alis e entre 2006 et 2012 Le choix des maladies refl te leurs caract ristiques pid miologiques au moment du d but de l tude Ces choix n ont pas t modifi s suite l volution de la situation pid miologique car l objectif est d
271. urs pour d tecter des augmentations de populations et des infections par des agents pathog nes Surveiller les maladies vectorielles dont la population de vecteurs augmente constitution de s roth ques pour diff rentes esp ces animales vue d analyses s rologiques surveillance de la situation internationale en mati re de sant animale alertes litt rature scientifique r unions symposiums sources non officielles etc Surveillance du secteur hobbyiste Recherche scientifique augmenter la performance des tests de diagnostic sensibilit d lais r actions asp cifiques Recherche et d veloppement de vaccins D velopper des traitements alternatifs aux restrictions d utilisation des antibiotiques et des vaccins r aliser des tudes scientifiques des r seaux de contact entre animaux sauvages domestiques et augmenter la surveillance bas e sur le risque dans les hot spots de ces r seaux de contact d velopper des tests de screening non sp cifiques et multivalents pour d tecter des maladies nouvelles inconnues Bios curit Au niveau des exploitations optimaliser la compartimentalisation des esp ces animales pour viter la transmission de maladies entre esp ces animales domestiques et galement entre esp ces domestiques et de la faune sauvage o Commerce et transports informations de bios curit aux voyageurs par exemple interdiction d importer des produits animau
272. veillance vigilance tude facteur de scientifique risque Haute densit des animaux formation Urbanisation Sous cat gories Recommandations du facteur de risque Mesure concr te de gestion Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique expansion vers les campagnes identification et inventaire des animaux domestiques d tenus de mani re non professionnelle surveillance des maladies transmises par les tiques augmentation de densit urbaine information du public pour une r duction du risque d mergence et de propagation d agents pathog nes par exemple gestion des plans d eau priv s Globalisation augmentation du terrorisme Sous cat gories du facteur de risque Mesure concr te de gestion Recommandations Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique bioterrorisme Agroterrorisme expansion d lib r e de pathog nes des animaux plantes pour d stabiliser l conomie d un pays Collaboration structur e entre Afsca et les services de s curit f d rale pour d finir des seuils d alerte Syst mes d alerte Croissance d mographique humaine Sous cat gories du facteur de risque Mesure concr te gestion Recommandations de Surveillance vigilance tude scientifique 139 formation du public l hygi ne et aux pr ventions d
273. ways been in Europe and there is no evidence that changing climate may affect it in either way 31 yes There are changes in the ecosystems produced by man The ecological effects on the wild bird populations have yet to be studied Ecosystems favouring installation of mosquito populations for example swimming pools and wild birds populations are risk factors of emergence Changes in ecosystems which can change the classical migratory routes of wild birds question of availability in nidification areas are also risk factors for emergence However this is speculation WNV has always been in Europe and there is no evidence that changing climate may affect it in either way 32 yes 0 There is an ongoing urbanisation Belgium Since the vectorial mosquitoes are present in urbanized areas such as in humid natural areas and in countryside urbanisation has no influence on the risk for emergence 33 yes Culex mosquito the vector of the disease is present in large number in Belgium This is an important risk factor of viral dispersion in case of introduction of the virus in Belgium of infection of humans and horses and also a risk factor for the amplification cycle between birds and mosquitoes Fievre de la vall e du Rift Bunyaviridae Phlebovirus Bengis et al 2004 Chevalier et al 2004 Gerdes 2004 Martin et al 2008 Factor Presence Impact Sc
274. wth of the bovine population in Belgium An increase in this population would represent a risk factor because it would increase the risk for transmission of this contagious disease 17 yes 0 Human traveling is increasing but which has no influence of the risk for emergence of the disease 18 yes 0 Human tourism is increasing but which has no influence of the risk for emergence of the disease 19 There is an increase in trade of animals which create opportunities of contacts between infected and non infected animals via yes movements and via importations Movements of animals play an important role in the propagation of the disease The increase in trade is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 20 There is an increase in transport of animals which create opportunities of contacts between infected and non infected animals yes Movements of animals play an important role in the propagation of the disease The increase in transport a risk factor for emergence of the disease 21 yes 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 yes 0 There are intensive production systems for bovines The intensification does not play any role in the emergence of the disease 23 yes 0 There are extensive production systems for bovines These extensive production systems do not play any role in the risk for emergence of the disease 24 There are currently no asymptomatic infected animals in
275. x ou des animaux vivants partir de pays tiers utilisation de biocides dans les moyens de transport continuer les contr les du transport fronti res PIFs ports a roports du commerce intracommunautaire et des importations L gislation Les s roth ques sont des banques de s rum r colt es sur plusieures ann es partir d animaux de diff rentes esp ces sur base d un plan d chantillonnage et archiv es en vue d une enqu te pid miologique r troactive en cas d mergence d une maladie animale 17 pour favoriser la d claration des maladies par les acteurs de terrain leveurs et v t rinaires donner des compensations financi res et ou des r compenses pour la d tection des index cases premier cas d une maladie mergente cas de suspicion de maladie limiter les mesures temporaires de contr le post d claration jusqu la confirmation du r sultat de laboratoire pour diminuer le seuil de d claration des maladies voir explications plus d taill es dans l avis 12 2010 du Comit scientifique r aliser une analyse sociologique des relations entre les acteurs de terrain v t rinaires et leveurs et l Agence pour identifier des solutions au probl me de sous d claration des maladies De cette mani re l Agence pourra d velopper des actions concr tes pour am liorer la confiance avec les op rateurs o Concernant les importations r valuer la l gisl
276. y Ayiqisso asegat uonesiecojg pue ul 51010 UOHE HE TOI Ayiqeues ofjauas sjewuiue poled uoneqnouj suondindod puejjewue usa meq suongesajuf 10339A Jo 2095914 Yodsuen asespu uonesijeqo ape 51 040 9 sisauaboujed jo 201 Aq pasnpoid suuaysAsooe ay ul 19 5 JO uognqusip 10 AydesBowep aseasou jewiue 1 Sel ANUNOS JAYJOUR 2S2819 5912908 ayy 0 Ayiqissog spewiue uaa myag 3903005 asedsip eu Aq uoyendlod ayy yo JO aseasouy eu Jo uonnqusip peades ui udisue xy eu Ul jo ausis d AJIIPIIM Jo 1 bouefielue souonoayep Jo 4 H 91015 0910110 oym 1811189 1 q 56951 101109 Amg 120 iques d ies animales infectieuses spora des malad emergence isque d 6 Facteurs de 5 Aeytes uone
277. y long The length of the incubation period has no influence on the risk for emergence because the vectors do not need the presence of clinical signs to bite animals and transmit the viruses 27 yes Via the vectors there are possibilities of contact between on one hand horses domestic birds and on the other hand wild birds This is a risk factor for emergence in the immunologically naive horse and domestic bird populations infection from wild birds 90 Domestic birds will be capable to spread the disease 28 yes Wild birds play an epidemiological role they transmit the disease amplify the viruses and transport it on long distances It is an important risk factor for emergence because of the difficulties to control wild fauna 29 no There is no increase in demography and or distribution of wild birds in belgium Such changes would represent risk factors for emergence introduction of the disease in Belgium 30 yes There are climatic and meteorological changes These changes can possibly generate changes in the migratory routes and increases in the length of life of migratory birds or settling of exotic vectors For example larvae of mosquitoes develop better in organic matters in stagnant waters which are concentrated by warm and dry climatic conditions These are important risk factors for emergence of the disease in Belgium However this is speculation WNV has al
278. yes There is an increase in transport of small ruminants which is a risk factor of infection of free herds 21 0 There is an increase in terrorism worldwide but which does not concern this disease 22 There are intensive productions systems for small ruminants Intensive breeding is a risk factor for the transmission and yes circulation of the bacterium in closed spaces indoor 23 yes aM There are extensive production systems for small ruminants outdoor breeding This is a risk factor of dispersion of the disease in the environment via dry matters dry abortion products feaces etc 24 Out of the abortion periods there are no clinical signs in small ruminants which complicated the detection of the disease and the yes taking of measures The asymptomatic infected animals can be transported and infect free herds This is a risk factor of dispersion of the disease and of emergence 25 There is an animal reservoir mostly small ruminants and cattle The bacterium is maybe the most widespread bacterial species in yes se the world This is a risk factor for emergence of the disease 26 yes There is a long incubation period before the abortion which allows the dissemination of the undetected infection This is a risk factor for emergence 27 n are possibilities of contact between the domestic ruminants bred outdoor and the wild fauna This represents a risk factor yes

Avis 06-2013 du Comité scientifique de l`AFSCA

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Avis 06-2013 du Comit&eacute; scientifique de l`AFSCA

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Avis 06-2013 du Comité scientifique de l`AFSCA