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1. LED 2011 4
2. EKAI n 2 060 BE 50 7 Fj ER 54 3 mil s 47 3 T 49 1 Fj 0 20 40 60 80 100 m RTT
3. 1 2011 9 22 2011 2 2011 2011 4 20 5 2 1 1 1 1 AM CHS 13 15 18
4. 6 15 2011 7 5 700 kW 2011 lt
5. 2009 7 10 1C 100 110 kW 2010 2011 7 41 42 Suggestion Paper 11 2C 200 kW 10 2009 7 A kW 5 600 5 400 5 200 5 000 4 800 4 600 dba 4 400 4 200 4 000 20 25 30 35 40 C 18 11 GO010 7 2011 7 C
6. 35 36 Suggestion Paper 2 3 2011 5 8 5 14 15 5 20 22 10 15 20 th
7. RR RI RI I mss Sues a SSS Se SOS SE OS I Sg SS o oo oo oo oo ol ol 80 ololololololololololololiololo lololoiolo QIQIQIQIQIQIQIQIQIQIQIQIQIQIQOIQIQIQOIQIQ 2011 8 3 575 3 544 2010 2 2011 7 9 2010 7 11 50kW 2000kW 15 2 000kW 11
8. 80 2011 4 D gt 2 KHA 6 11 15 kWh 2011 kWh
9. 45 46 Suggestion Paper 1 2050 2009 2 2008 3 2010 4 POST 2011 6 15 5 2011 4 20 H 6 1994 7 WEB 8 EDMC 2009 9 2011 4 8 10
10. 4 kW eH kW 2011 7 1 300 kW 4 25 4 2 200 kW 4 16 m 1 590 kW 4 5 14 15 1 920 kW 4 10 20 22 E S x 4 1 550 KW 4 9 14 15 1 800 kW 4 18 20 22 5 180 kW 4 14 5 110 kW 4 15 ee 1 1 lt kWh gt 4 8 6 k 2
11. 2 060 2011 4 13 3 2 2 2011 33 100 189
12. 6 14 15 RORE 9 20 22 18 15 20 5 2011 4 kw RECOBAOEDNAL X Y 7 000 SO 5 T807KW 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 O 2 4 6 8 10121416 18 20 22 O 2 4 6 8 10 12 14161820 22 2011 37 6 2011 4 418 ee 10 KW _
13. 4 1 80 Fyi 2 x x
14. 1 6 1 5 999 kW Vv one Aree ans a O 2 4 6 8 10121416182022 O 2 4 6 8 10121416 1820 22 2 2011 4 500kW 25 BER 500kW 20 50kW
15. 2012 1 2 2011 2 1 2 2 2 3 2011 5 3 3 1 2011 7 3 2 4 Summary Contents 2011 Suggestion Paper 2011 Summer Electricity Demand Forecasting and Verification Atsushi Suzuki Yushi Inoue Minoru Sonoyama Since the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on March 11 2011 it has become difficult nationwide to resume operations after the periodical inspections Due to concerns about the electricity supply shortage because of the above electricity consumers in some regions took measures to save electricity in response to the request and appeal for electricity saving from the government and the electric power company and as a result the electricity d
16. 2 10 HOD 2 20 22 4 ECR TV TV
17. 14 15 kWh 2 kWh 16 17 kWh kWh 5 kWh we 2011 7 ER 2 211 696 a
18. TOMI MT ESS LED i EON 0 20 40 60 80 100 2011 2
19. 2011 2010 2011 4 2011 7
20. 9 2 2 9 1 11 R2
21. 8 9 BE ORI a CSTR 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 kWh 39 40 Suggestion Paper 3 2 1 2011 7 2011 4 4 lt kW gt 5 100 5 200 kW 2010 14 15 2011 7 4 638 kW 2010 23 kW 450 550 kW 8 9 gt 2010 2011 7
22. 4 2 Suggestion Paper 4 28C 1 HH
23. 1 1 1 CO
24. gt 2011 7 2010 11 15 2010 8 LED
25. ral e 2010 7 601 1 7 II gene rennet O BABA oy ee ee ee 5 CS A EE OE HS Se Cy ee SS SS CE N SS GG ee 1 3 5 7 91113 151719 2123 2527 29 31 19 3 2011 43 6 2011 2011 4 4 25 425 A 20 A 2596 z 100 100 MERNE 80
26. 4 15 4 9 48 1 1 44 Suggestion Paper 4
27. 11 2011 4 20 H 12 2011 7 2011 10 17 H 13 2011 9 30 H 14 2011 5 23 H http www2 toyota cojp jp news 11 05 nt11_0515 html 15 2011 6 1 http wwwanissan globalcom JP NEWS 2011 STORY 110601 02 j html 16 2011 6 17 A http www toshiba co jp about press 2011_06 pr_j1701 htm 17 18 http www tepco cojp forecast html maxsummer pdf 19 WEB http www jma go jp jma menu report html
28. 15 20 2011 4 8 9 9 27 Suggestion Paper 2010 25 1 1 ans KW FREE kWh AE z B09 4 29 4 20 De o 209 6 MBS TER URES RIED KW A 6 2010
29. 5 9 2011 7 3 2011 4 n kWh kW HRE 1 300 kW 4 25 a 2 2 200 5 kW a 16 4 6 9 1 590 5 kW a 5 14 156 z 1 920 kW 4 10 20 22 EM E z a 1 550 kW a 9 14 156 tO CR Ed 1 800 kW 18 20 22 8 SM 5 180 kW A 14 4 5 5 110 kW A 15 4 6 38 3 kW 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 E 30 000 20 000 Eg XA 10 000 mH E F 10 000 Suggestion Paper 2011
30. RAAS hs me m 0 02 4 6 8 10121416 18 2022 O 2 4 6 8 10 12 1416 18 2022 1 25 20 x 80 2011 4 2 14 15 kW 25 kW kWh kW 16 kWh 6 kW
31. 100 80 0 kWh 9 20 0 12 4850 kW 200 kW 2011 7 4650 kW 2011 7 7 12 201 1 4 ais mmy Le mm E O 2 4 6 8 101214 16 18 2022 O 2 4 6 8 10121416182022 R7 ei 01 1 7 A 10 411 A 14
32. 3 2 Comparative Verification with Demand Forecasting 4 Future Tasks 29 30 Suggestion Paper l 2011 3 11 1 2 B 2009 5 2050 1 4 2013
33. 28 Suggestion Paper 2011 2011 3 11 2011 2011 4 WEB 2011 2011 7
34. 7 27 2011 4 2011 7 1 2011 7 7 10 2010 7 5 999 kW 4638 kW 23 8 2010 6 7 870 kW 2011 67 kW 2011 7 7
35. emand in the summer of 2011 decreased drastically in each region In April 2011 after the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami Mitsubishi Research Institute attempted to forecast the electricity demand in consideration of the consumers electricity saving efforts in the Tokyo Electric Power Company s supply area in which the electricity supply in this summer was believed to run short In particular the scope for electricity saving of household consumers and the possibility of its exteriorization were analyzed based on the results of a questionnaire on the web and the electricity demand in the summer of 2011 was estimated according to the application of electric power The estimation result was compared to the actual electricity demand in July 2011 and as a result it was shown that in particular the electricity demand of the residential sector was estimated with certain accuracy by using the result of the advanced questionnaire At the same time how to increase the accuracy in estimating the demand was determined according to the status of the electricity supply capability from the summer of 2012 if implementing it 1 Introduction 2 2011 Summer Electricity Demand Forecasting 2 1 Considerations of Demand Forecasting 2 2 Assumption of Electricity Saving in the Residential Sector 2 3 2011 Summer Electricity Demand Forecasting 5 3 Comparative Verification with Actual Electricity Demand in This Summer 3 1 Actual Electricity Demand in July 2011
36. mp 15 A 6 eo 4 11 A 5 re A 6 1 1 2 4 4 gt 2010 2011 7 gt gt L kWh D gt

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