Technical Analysis of S&C USA
Contents
1. Rj 535 Core Capital 52705 19 a PEt rsh 37351 41 Portfoko Comparison Current Porthole Hadag 100 Create New Load Partai Manage Capilal Mew Triade Edit Winey Open Trade Umer Guide Dee x FIGURE 1 JBL TRADING SUMMARY SCREEN The trading summary page tracks the open and closed trade information win loss percentage drawdown average dollar trade expectancy and trading system efficiency for each portfolio It also contains the tabs at the bottom of the screen that set up the trading portfolios Settings that will identify the country and ex change being used and keep track of information about open and closed po sitions after trades have been placed Figure 1 But first the user needs to activate the four tabs or buttons at the bottom of the screen that takes the trader through the simple steps necessary to set the conditions for any future trade Each step must be done before the program allows you to enable the next tab The op Current St a4 p gt JBL RISK MANAGER Malvern Victoria 3144 Australia Website www jblriskmanager com Phone 61 3 9013 4123 Mobile 61 4 0938 7317 Product Money Risk amp Trade Management software Price Free 14 day fully functional trial period one time cost AUD 299 at current conversion rates US 240 2 with free upgrades for next 12 months following purchase by Barbara Star PhD he best way to avoid blowing out you2. open January 28 2015 the day following the EXIT recommendation at the close of the prior trading day 471 95 464 10 mal Brokerage 9 99 SellTotal 677601 A 830 July 2015 Technical Analysis of STOCKS amp COMMODITIES 43 one trade The second pertains to the amount of trading capital available for any one position The guideline states that you should never trade more than 20 of your core trading capital on any one trade In fact to be on the safe side the JBL Risk Manager defaults to a 19 trade size so that funds are available for slippage or other expenses Both guidelines constitute the basic rules for accounts 50 000 or less and are automatically integrated into the software calculations for each trade entered The percentages for risk and position size decrease for trading ac counts greater than 50 000 The factors of risk and trade size along with entry price and initial stop loss determine the optimal number of shares the program recommends for the trade Changes the user makes to the entry or stop loss price may create a change in the number of shares the program recommends in order to maintain the proper risk and trade size balance Stop loss and profit taking The program offers several built in and user defined options for determining stop loss placement including initial stops trailing stops profit target stops and time based stops The software recommends an initial stop loss
3. create and name the portfolio The software will let the user create an unlimited number of portfolios which is useful for separating each different stock category or stocks chosen by different trading systems or for users with more than one trading account There is no limit to the number of stocks that may be added to each portfolio Settings The next tab takes the user to the Settings screen where decisions are made about trade length trailing stop money management amp brokerage fees Figure2 The software defaults to settings that will probably suit most traders However each of the settings may be changed to meet individual user preferences The settings screen will also store the price data source location and choice of stock exchange Users may select from a large list of stock exchanges These include exchanges in the US NASDAQ NYSE AMEX as well as countries and cities including Australia ASX New Zealand NZX London LSE Singapore SGX Hong Kong HKEX Bombay BSE India NSE Shanghai SSE Toronto TSX Sao Paulo SAO Berliner Borse BSE and Deutsche Borse XETRA Once a stock exchange is selected the software automatically inputs the correct currency used for the stocks in that exchange Capital In the third tab manage capital the user types in the amount of money to allocate to this portfolio from their trading account Trade The fourth tab New Trade lets the user identify t
4. 5 547 54 487 04 525 30 530 25 534 63 539 58 543 96 510 00 514 31 522 51 526 82 535 02 501 34 505 67 514 33 518 66 527 32 for Stock spit Next Trade at 530 71 Breakeven 512 54 Days Held E r Save Trade Cancel Maximum Core Trading Capital l 50000 EXIT Cash l 50000 14 Trade Size Maximum 7000 Trade Size 445 23 445 23 445 23 445 23 445 23 445 23 507 25 519 28 506 20 518 04 9 44 521 48 536 33 519 70 534 39 9 58 535 59 542 17 533 00 539 95 9 67 538 53 539 00 529 67 535 21 9 75 529 97 530 70 518 19 518 63 9 92 522 78 522 99 510 00 510 00 10 10 519 51 510 86 EXIT 502 79 EXIT Maximum Risk 1 75 Risk 1 75 New Trailing Stop l Maximum Risk R 875 Actual Risk 875 Initial Stop 522 83 Risk Share 67 308 P L per Share 9 463 Preferred Initial Stop y 3228 LastClose 510 00 on 1 28 2015 Based on current Stop Sell Date 1 28 2015 Sell Price 522 00 x Quantity 13 i R FIGURE 3 THE TRADE SCREEN WITH GOOGLE INC GOOG Once the trader enters the symbol and selects the anticipated trade date the software recommends the number of shares to purchase Initial Stop and displays your Maximum Risk based on the last Close After confirming quantity your breakeven price and when in Profit which Trailing Stop is in use and whether to HOLD or EXIT the trade The user may follow or change any of the recommendations This trade in GOOG was entered at the open on January 20 2015 and closed at the
5. PRODUCT REVIEW mass STOCKS amp COMMODITIES July 2015 Technical Analysis of STOCKS amp COMMODITIES ot BL Risk Manager 9 0 a S lata Trading Summary _ Open Trades 175 675 00 z AR 905 CASS FOOLS Lael Brice 669091 on 474005 Slog al S71 E1207 r RA 6095 AISA EPS 10 11 ther f4 Rey HELD ima Wianing apt i 134 5 Winning Losing 0 0 Losing Tola Bacup Portiohos Restore Portfobes Prit risi Darha Mancina Drawerlowrne 400 000A Stal trcae a U a a a a SATILSA JSA 1 Ae iar 02 SOIM PIANA O15 0 15 Awrrage eR A RR winner rade Peprectany i i177 Awerage Loser i 0 0 mnei Long ASS 5A yw 12A a 9005 APU on LAS AB e 12A ALAS Ion ORS 4908 eG afier 15 Cyn OG long SLO 1 Sd SS on SS L I aan A Lom WS 09 24 2 oer D Days Win Tobak 21 7 57 Lusa Tolak 0 Win Tatak 711 55 Loss Tulak 0 Win Thak 8717 10 Loss Totak 5i Aerop Wim AJ R TE Average Lusa 60 6 0 Averagr Wii 564 5 23 Average Lose 80 0 0 Autri Wi 6917 0 Awerage Loss m 000 Grates Win ETL NI Greabest Loss 0 00 Greatest Wine 258 A Greabest boss 6 0 0 Geek Wie 2717 1 7 Greatest Loss 0 0 0 Trade Farge anys 5A Average Days Hekk 17 3 Trade Fupectaecy i forerage Days Hekk 11 5 Trade Fepredamcy 717 Average Days Held 79 0 Slambard Devialim 3 33 yshem Quality famber 2 7A Total Brokerage 53 70 Ekee Trades ady Tolal Gain luss R 1 62 Average Beprectaney
6. de exit that determines whether the trade has made or lost money The software displays that average amount for the stocks in each portfolio The other feature included in the program was developed by Van Tharp who is well known in trading circles for helping traders overcome problems in the areas of trading psychology and system performance Barrington Lew received permission from Tharp to include Tharp s System Quality Number TM which measures the efficiency of a trading sys tem That number appears near the lower right hand side of the trading summary screen and is activated automatically after a minimum of two trades have been closed out According to the user manual a number greater than 1 65 shows that the trading system makes money better than a chance occurrence A number greater than 2 indicates a very good system and above 2 5 an excellent system The good news is that the JBL Risk Manager offers users an easy way to improve their future trading performance by giving traders the ability to create multiple portfolios That makes it pos sible to set up a practice portfolio for each trading method or trading system In essence the trader may backtest the same stock symbols in each portfolio using various entry amp exit strategies to quickly determine which provide the best results according to the system quality number CONCLUSION The JBL Risk Manager is more than a number crunching machine With it
7. he trade as either long buy or short sell and lets the user select the stock symbol the expected buy date and the anticipated buy price It is recommended but not required that the user also type in the market sector for that stock and Diary note the reason for wanting to buy or sell this stock From here the software uses the information derived from the settings and the manage capital pages to automatically fill in the salient facts regarding the potential trade as seen in Figure 3 with the long trade in Google Inc GOOG Among the automated items provided on the trade screen is the amount of core capital available the cash to use for the trade the recommended number of shares to purchase the total trade value including brokerage fees the suggested initial stop and the breakeven price As an added measure it also has the daily floor traders pivot points to identify potential near term support resistance Survival features The JBL Risk Manager contains several features that enable traders to maintain a consistent disciplined approach to preserving and growing their trading account The software incorporates a concept called the core trading capital which Barrington Lew considers a more Money Management Trade Sizing Display RTC Brokerage Long Trades Trade Size Above Brokerage 14 7 9 11 6 Internet Price Data usA NASDAQ Default Exchange Brokerage Short Trades Bro
8. kerage Brokerage FIGURE 2 SETTINGS SCREEN Traders are able to select stocks from 15 major exchanges insert brokerage fees and indicate preferred trading duration The software automatically determines the appropriate type of trailing exit placement and percent of trade size to risk realistic view of the trading capital available to the trader The PDF user manual that comes with the software defines core trading capital as a combination of available cash plus any realized trading capital that is your initial trade value plus or minus the profit or loss that would occur if each open position stop were hit Thatconceptunderlies the calculations for stop loss and money management guidelines The first guideline is related to initial risk management and is prob ably familiar to most traders It states that you should never risk more than 2 of your core trading capital on any GOOG GOOGLE INC LONG TRADE Short Trade Sector INTERNET Profit Target optional Symbol GooG Recommended Buy Quantity 13 Anticipated Buy Total 6652 99 Buy Date 1 20 2015 Buy Price 511 00 x Quantity 13 Brokerage 3 99 Actual Buy Total 6652 99 ATR MA Stop Loss 9 Stop ATR Stop Current Stop Action New Trailing Stop Time Stop s2__ si__ pr ri R2 445 25 461 28 493 65 s 501 99 504 44 508 47 510 93 514 96 471 42 EES 501 43 509 73 514 51 522 81 527 59 486 29 513 51 523 95 530 14 540 58 546 77 491 35 529 20 534 58 538 37 543 7
9. placement based on an algo rithm that prevents losing more than the pre allocated amount of trading capital However the user may enter their preferred initial stop loss price Taking into consideration brokerage fees the software also determines the breakeven price Once the breakeven has been hit the software converts from initial stop to a trailing stop using either a modified average true range ATR calculation or a fixed percentage whichever the program determines to give the best profit safety The PO15 535 59 542 17 533 PO15 538 53 539 00 529 PO15 529 97 530 70 518 PO15 522 78 522 99 510 BACANA W 32 9 Y 45 Sell Date 1 28 system highlights in red which trailing stop is in control One of the more unique features of the program is the way the software automatically changes the ATR and fixed percentage stops depending on the user s trading length preferences short medium or longer term Some traders prefer to be in a trade for only a few days others for weeks and still others for months The program allows the user to select different time lengths for each individual portfolio with each having their own default or selected Trailing and Percentage Stop values The Trailing Stops can also be set to change depending on the last Closing price of the stock As can be seen in the settings screen in Figure 2 the ATR and fixed percent values can be set to decrease for higher
10. priced less volatile stocks At any time during the trade the user may elect to override the current trailing stop with one of their own If a stock does not reach break even within 10 days the software automatically suggests the user exit the trade so the trading capital can be put to better use but that is their choice At the end of each trading day the user updates the price information by either using their data download service they maybe subscribed to or connecting to the Internet updating the stocks being traded If no Stop has been hit the program displays a large green flashing sign that says HOLD But once the last closing price has triggered one of the stop loss price levels the software displays a large red flashing EXIT sign as seen with GOOG in Figure 3 It s then up to the user to determine whether to exit the trade first opportunity the next trading day or whether to stay in the trade In the GOOG trade the exit was triggered after the close of trading on January 27 2015 The actual exit occurred the following day at the Open The user JBL Risk Manager offers users an easy way to improve their future trading performance by giving them the ability to create multiple portfolios 44 July 2015 Technical Analysis of STOCKS amp COMMODITIES must manually enter the actual exit price when the trade has been closed IMPROVE TRADING PERFORMANCE Not only did the creator of the JBL Risk Manager wish to as
11. r trading account is to develop a consistent method of maintain ing control over your trading losses Many traders think that using stop losses alone will do the trick but that s only one part of the equation Successful equity protection involves account manage ment position sizing and sector balance as well as good exit strategies Program developer Joseph Barrington Lew JBL created the JBL Risk Manager software to incorporate all of those factors and more in an easy to use format JBL Risk Manager a recent Readers Choice Award recipient is a stand alone money manager and trade risk management program for stock traders that operates independent of any charting service trading system or brokerage platform It currently also provides access to 15 major stock exchanges throughout the world The software uses local end of day price data in MetaStock data format offered by many vendors However if that data is not available the software will auto link to the price data needed via the Internet for the stock traded SIMPLE FOUR STEP SETUP The trader launches JBL Risk Manager after deciding which stock to trade but before placing the trade The software opens the trading summary screen 42 July 2015 Technical Analysis of STOCKS amp COMMODITIES program highlights in yellow those ar eas that must be completed by the user in that step Portfolio The first tab create new load portfolio is the place to
12. s many automated features the software promotes an objective decision making approach to controlling trading risk and preserving trading capital which leads to added staying power Barbara Star PhD is a frequent con tributor to Technical Analysis of STOCKS amp COMMODITIES magazine Currently she trades part time and provides indi vidual instruction and consultation to those interested in technical analysis of the financial markets She lives in Wood land Hills CA and can be reached at 818 224 4070 or by email at star4070 aol com JBL Risk Manager 9 0 JBL Risk Manager www jblriskmanager com See Editorial Resource Index az Bata errno A P44 A July 2015 Technical Analysis of STOCKS amp COMMODITIES 45
13. sist traders to be more disciplined in the way they managed money in their trading he also wanted to incorporate other aspects that have a bearing on trading performance For instance by inputting the sector category when a trade is entered users may avoid overweighting certain market sectors in their portfolio such as technology orenergy stocks This is reflected in one of the categories along the top line of the open trade information on the trading summary screen Also filling in the diary section on the trade page with the reasons for buying or selling astock may help traders identify those strategies and entry methods that seem to produce the best results The settings page contains a button labeled RTC Risk Tolerance Calculator Here traders may obtain not only a realistic idea of how much account loss they would suffer in consecutive trading losses but also what it would take to compound the growth of their portfolio Information on the trading summary screen goes beyond the usual profit and loss numbers It also permits comparing the user s portfolio to a market index such as the W5000 or S amp P 500 in order to check whether their trades are under or outperforming the market Two other features are also based on closed trades One is known as Trade Expectancy which is the average dollar amount a trader can expect to make or lose per trade based on past closed trad ing results Every trader knows that it is the tra
Download Pdf Manuals
Related Search