exercises with the simlucia policy support system
Contents
1. and then when the credits appear click on OK to get rid of them A window will then appear that includes a list of files Double click LucRise sim You will see a map flash up only to be covered immediately by a system diagram However you will still see parts of the map visible behind the system diagram Click once on the map legend and the map will come to the foreground You can always switch from map to system diagram or any other window which 1 open and back again just by clicking on the one you want You are now ready to begin First familiarise yourself with the current situation on the Island and with the model which represents the island as an integrated geographical system Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 3 Look down at the land use map the Micro scale dynamics window and notice where the various activities are found Then click on View the menu bar at the top of the screen and use the different possibilities to get a feeling of what the island looks like Briefly describe how the location of the following land uses seem to depend on physical or topographical features a Natural vegetation b Mangrove c Tourism d Rural residential Some areas are inherently more suitable for an activity than others You can view the suitabilities as follows Click on the Maps in the menu bar and subsequently on Suitability A drop down list opens from which you can chose a function you want to see the suita2. the planner can in an artificial manner lower the physical suitability to represent institutional regulations Read from the Suitability map the suitability value for the forest cells To that end move the cursor over the cells Do not click the mouse 1 not new values will be entered the cells Another way of knowing the accessibility values is by clicking the right mouse button on a or forest cell in the Micro scale A AI ES dynamics window A window will Pot Infl Sui ACCESS pop up which shows all the natural vegetation 0 information that is available for agriculture 214 406 0601 088 this particular cell among which industry and qu aries 000 00 00 053 the Suit ability for agriculture trade and services 1070 985 030 036 You will read that the suitability tourism oo oo 040 22 value for the forest cells is 0 7 on rural residential 8416 12875 O50 O84 the 0 0 1 0 scale urban residential 10 421 51 12 O30 068 forest 0 80 The policy maker could lower this suitability value by introducing zoning regulations Entering a value of 0 0 would mean a very strict regulation which would definitely and absolutely protect the forest from intrusion by agriculture but which would be very expensive and difficult to enforce The least costly and simplest to enforce would be a policy intervention that will reduce the suitability from 0 7 to 0 6 Try out the latter To that end reset the
3. Cellular Automata and Socio economic Models A Tool for Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on the Island of St Lucia Spatial Information for Land Use Management edited by M Hill and R Aspinall p 189 204 Gordon and Breach G Engelen White I Uljee and P Drazan 1995 Using Cellular Automata for Integrated Modelling of Socio environmental Systems Environmental monitoring and Assessment volume 30 p 203 214 White and G Engelen 1997 Cellular Automata as the Basis of Integrated Dynamic Regional Modelling Environment and Planning B volume 24 p 235 246 Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 1 Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models Part 1 Saint Lucia and the PSS SIMLUCIA The island St Lucia 1 a small island located midway down the Eastern Caribbean chain between the Atlantic Ocean on the eastern shore and the calm Caribbean Sea on the western shore The island is only 42 km long and 21 km wide and dominated by a single mountain 950 m high Mount Gimmie covered with a forest full of natural beauty The climate is tropical but moderated by northeast trade winds There is a dry season from January to April and a season from May to August Tropical storms that may gain hurricane force and to a lesser extent volcanic activity are the main causes of natural hazards Current environmental issues are deforestation and soil erosion particularly in the south western region During the
4. on land use Look for a moment at the diagram to get an idea of the relationships connecting climate the economy the population and land use as shown by the arrows and boxes Now we will look at some of these relationships more closely In the natural sub system portion of the diagram click on the Climate box The diagram that appears shows that Temperature affects Storm frequency and Precipitation and that both Temperature and Precipitation have an effect on Agriculture as you would expect Click on the part of the temperature box with the number in it and you will see a graph showing the assumed change in temperature over the next 40 years How much higher will the temperature be by year 30 Close this graph by clicking on the OK bar at the bottom of the graph box Now follow the arrow from the Temperature box to the Precipitation box and click on that number to see the relationship between the change in average temperature and the change in average precipitation The horizontal red line across the centre shows the current mean precipitation If temperatures rise moving to the right of the graph precipitation will Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 4 increase also 1f temperatures fall moving to the left precipitation will decrease Click on the OK bar to close this graph Follow the arrow from the Precipitation box to the Agriculture box and click on the number in that box Now you see the relations
5. simulation and click a suitability value of 0 6 in all 10 or some of the forest cells Then run the simulation again Are the cells still taken in by agriculture Keep on lowering the suitability value till the complete forest area can withstand the pressure from agriculture for the full 40 years Notice that the policy maker could reduce the cost of his intervention by fine tuning the timing of his interventions To that end he has to lower the suitability of a cell only the year before it is threatened by agriculture Thus the surveillance and other costs could be reduced Try to find the least costly solution to protect the forest with a a fixed suitability determined before the simulation and b a suitability that changes during the simulation For this last alternative you can use Step instead of Run which takes the simulation only one year forward each time you click the button Now that you have been able to stop agriculture from taking in our forest it 1 interesting to know where farmers will have found an alternative area to expand their activities To that end use the technique explained in the previous exercise Run a simulation without policy intervention and the one where the forested area remains untouched by agriculture Put the results on LOG files and compare them by means of ANALYSE Notice that the policy intervention has consequences for the location of agriculture but that other activities due to their links with agricultur
6. zoom out to see them simultaneously on your screen As part of the exercise we will edit maps Please keep in mind that SIMLUCIA is not equipped with a so called Undo edit function This means that corrections made to maps are definite You can press the Reset button to reverse all the corrections made since the simulation was opened Be careful when you save the simulation not to overwrite original maps with copies that have been edited by you Start SIMLUCIA and Open the simulation file named LucNoCh sim Minimize the Macro scale dynamics window Select from the Maps menu the Suitability map for agriculture Zoom in on both maps to the point that the cells are sufficiently big to allow you to click in new values easily Position the maps in such a manner that the area around the cell with the co ordinates row 67 column 66 is handy To make the mouse pointer jump to the cell row 67 column 66 you can select from the View menu the command Go to and fill in the co ordinates In order to focus your attention on the area where we will intervene it helps to show the Major Grid on top of both maps To that end select Grid from the Options menu and draw a Major Grid every 4 cells You can unselect this option by clicking in the check box again Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 13 Finally make the Micro scale dynamics window active by clicking it and select from the View menu the command Network
7. EXERCISES WITH THE SIMLUCIA POLICY SUPPORT SYSTEM research institute for knowledge systems Exercises with the SIMLUCIA Policy Support System Guy Engelen Roger White and Hedwig van Delden January 2004 Table of Contents EXERCISES WITH THE SIMLUCIA POLICY SUPPORT SYSTEM 22200ss20000000s220000000220000000000000000 1 PART 1 SAINT LUCIA AND THE PSS SIMLUCKA ar 3 PART 2 POLICY EXERCISES WITH SIMLUC IA ss 7 SOLUTIONS THE EXERCISES nun er 19 RIKS P O Box 463 6200 AL Maastricht Phone 31 43 3883322 Fax 31 43 3253155 research institute for knowledge systems info riks nl www riks nl Exercises with the SIMLUCIA Policy Support System The world that planners work in is a beautifully complex whole But the complexity makes it difficult to study because the knowledge required to understand it is not available in a single academic discipline rather has been subdivided into a number of specialized fields each concentrating on a part of it Workers in the various sub fields and sub sub fields like climatology industrial location theory or environmental management each focus on their own problems so that it often seems that no one is working to put the pieces back together again in order to understand the whole thing as a whole as a single functional or maybe not so functional natural human earth system Yet when we come up against a problem like the possible impact of climate change w
8. bility of Choose from this list the function tourism The suitability map for tourism will now open Arrange your screen in such a way that you can see the Land use map as well as the Suitability map for tourism The scale on the suitability maps turns from red most suitable to blue completely unsuitable Note that the most suitable areas for tourism are near the beaches and the coral reefs which as you can see on the land use map 1s where the tourist developments are located Close the Suitability map for tourism and open the Suitability map for agriculture Compare this suitability map to the land use map Is agriculture generally located on the most suitable land As you move higher on the mountain what happens to the suitability for agriculture Why might this be the case Now close the Suitability map and click on the macro scale dynamics screen to activate it The macro scale dynamics window shows an overview of the structure of the system St Lucia modelled at the macro level being a scale covering the entire island It also serves as a graphical explorer of the macro level model and permits access to the processes modelled at the macro level The macro level model essentially models 3 coupled sub systems each represented by sets of linked variables the natural sub system the social sub system and the economic sub system and calculates the effects of changes in the natural social and economic sub system
9. cells which land use has changed due to sea level rise and in blue cells that are taken in by tourism in the Rise scenario but not in the No change scenario To understand better the overall changes that have taken place in the vicinity of some of the red or blue cells 1t is interesting to look at the original maps that are being compared by pressing the buttons or There is an interesting case of coastal retreat to be seen in the Rodney Bay area Some cells are lost to the sea the beach has moved inland and some tourism cells have been abandoned Of course the simulations are showing what would happen in the absence of beach protection by public or private authorities Also land loss and beach loss in our simulation depend largely on the elevation map which has only one elevation reading per cell 250 by 250 m The numerical results of both simulations can be compared and further analysed by means of Microsoft Excel Excel is a very elaborate package with almost unlimited capabilities One way of comparing two simulation runs is to open both xls files that have been generated and stored in our case NoCh xls and Rise xis and to create a new a third workbook in which the comparisons differences are calculated Excel will also allow making graphs of the simulation results However it is beyond the scope of this chapter to explain the functionality of Excel For now just take a look at the Excel sheets and try to find the number of cells lo
10. development of the SIMLUCIA PSS the population was about 135 000 inhabitants of which 35 000 persons were living the capital Castries The birth rate was relatively high and the population growing though more moderately than the birth rate would indicate because of out migration Tourism 1 still the fastest growing sector in the economy and depends a healthy and attractive environment including beaches landscapes and heritages attractions There 1s also an important agriculture sector consisting of large commercial plantations of bananas for the European market However most of the agricultural sector consists of very small farms producing for subsistence and the local market Except for some locally produced food most goods are imported SIMLUCIA Instructions for using the computer in this exercise are indented with a bullet The programs you will be using run under Windows In Windows you perform most operations using the mouse for example to open a file a window or a box move the cursor with the mouse to the relevant spot and click twice in quick succession using the button on the left of the mouse To close a window locate the small square button at the left end of the title bar the one with the cross click on 1t and then click on Close the menu list that appears Some windows can also be closed by clicking on a Close Cancel or OK button the window Torun the SIMLUCIA program double click on the SIMLUCIA icon
11. distant future and it will support the user in the design and evaluation of alternative solutions to cope with these problems The selection phase 1s less well supported in SIMLUCIA since there is no functionality built in to compare and rank alternative solutions other than what 1s available in ANALYSE Microsoft Excel or IDRISI In the three exercises we will study the effects of external factors and policy interventions The exercises have been kept rather simple Their purpose is mainly to make you acquainted with SIMLUCIA to the point that you will be able to run your own exercises First we will show how to study the effects of external factors Next we will see how interventions of the type policy interventions can be tested with the system Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 7 If you intend to use SIMLUCIA for planning or policy making you should remember that you are working with a model and that like any other model this model 1 a strong simplification of reality More SIMLUCIA is an instrument intended for scientific analysis hence you have full access to nearly all 15 parameter and variables Whenever you change parameters or variables beyond their validity range the model might generate results that are merely nonsense In conclusion use the model in a responsible manner and with particular care All the exercises in this chapter will be done with the simulation files named LucNoCh sim and LucRise sim Begin eac
12. does not have models that take into consideration the effects of waves currents and wind on the erosion of beaches On field trips to St Lucia we have witnessed the effects on the beaches of storms in combination with seasonal current regimes during the winter season beaches erode strongly while in the summer season beaches are naturally replenished In order to study these effects SIMLUCIA would have to be further developed and appropriate models of the kind should be included Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 10 Policy exercise b Working with ANALYSE and MS Excel Results produced with SIMLUCIA can be further analysed by means of the programs ANALYSE and Microsoft Excel The purpose of this exercise 1 to practice this procedure Aim the aim of this exercise 1s to re run the simulations of exercise a but to store the results of the simulations on file in order to allow for the further analysis of the map results by means of ANALYSE and the other data by means of Microsoft Excel In order to be able to produce and store Excel files it is required that you have Excel installed on your Screen arrangement Open the file NoCh sim and arrange your screen as explained in exercise a Do not make any adaptations to this simulation yet What if simulation Again we will compare two simulation runs the No change scenario and the Rise scenario Once your screen arrangement 15 ready to start the No climate change run selec
13. e have been affected as well Possibly the policy intervention has effects that are even worse than losing the 10 forest cells and possibly the policy maker has to decide on additional measures to control agriculture or any other activity for that matter It 15 up to you to try this out from here Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 15 Policy exercise d Expansion of the tourism sector Aim The goal of this exercise 1s that you as one of the policy makers of St Lucia want to expand the tourism sector with eco tourism In doing this you have to find suitable locations for this expansion based on the other functions available on St Lucia and the physical aspects of St Lucia Important knowledge for this exercise In the PSS SIMLUCIA the cells on the land use map are in 1 of 15 possible Land use states Land use states are further subdivided in Land use functions there are 8 and they are underlined in the legend or Land use features there are 7 and they are not underlined The functions can change over time The features cannot change over time however they do have an impact on the allocation of functions through the interaction rules An example is the function tourism that is attracted to the feature beaches When running a simulation you will find that the beaches stay in the same location during the whole simulation while tourism cells may change state How to start In this exercise the assumption is made that the to
14. e see immediately that we must deal with the system as a whole since climate affects the biosphere the biosphere provides the basis for human society and human activities in turn affect both the biosphere and perhaps it seems the climate itself In this practical exercise you will work with a computer model that is designed to put the pieces back together again It was developed for the United Nations Environment Programme as a tool for exploring the possible impacts of climate change on islands in the Caribbean region It could be applied to any island but the version you will use has an application to St Lucia The first part of the exercises is to make you familiar with the island and the Policy Support System SIMLUCIA In the second part you will set up your own simulations and calculate what might happen with the island over a period of 40 years under different circumstances Short answers to the questions asked during the exercises can be found at the end If an answer is available you can find 1t by means of the footnote mark and number at the end of the question If you have any problems while making the exercises you can also download the complete user manual of SIMLUCIA from the RIKS web site www riks nl projects SimLucia From the same site you can download the software More information can also be found in one or all of the following publications White G Engelen and I Uljee 2000 Modeling Land use Change with Linked
15. estions throughout the text To answer this question look at the land use map the network map and the elevation map It will help you to invoke 3D view of the micro scale dynamics window Natural vegetation can be found in the north eastern part of the island and almost everywhere along the coastal area where the precipitation 1s low and in particular in places where human interference is minimal More inland the natural vegetation is not present rather is replaced by forests This is because of the rainfall on the higher exposed inland area of the island The highest peaks of the island are covered with the forest reserve a protected rain forest These are the locations with the highest rainfall but also where the relief is very unsuited for human activities particular agriculture and where the risk for erosion is very high Mangroves can be found along the coastline very near to the salt water but also in the mouth of rivers because they need a brackish environment to grow Tourism can be found in areas where there are beaches bays sea harbours and coral reefs and which are accessible by road Rural residential areas are found the fertile valleys They appear at higher locations than urban residential areas but not all the way up in the mountains The function rural residential is often clustered with agriculture natural vegetation and services Agriculture 15 mostly located in the flat and fertile valleys of
16. example about zoning regulations to stimulate tourism on certain locations or to construct facilities tourist would be attracted by hotels flat camping grounds eco villages You adapt the transition rules for tourism on forest reserves If you look at these rules in the simulation file LucNoCh sim you will find that forest reserves do not have any influence on tourism You can adapt this graph by clicking in it In actual practise you could think about this as for example a public relations actions from the policy makers of St Lucia to attract tourists to the island that are interested in forest reserves You adapt the road network At this moment there are no roads going into the forests So there is no way for tourists to reach the forest reserve In SIMLUCIA you can construct roads just as a policy maker can decide on the construction of roads In this exercise it is your task to make the forest accessible without harming the nature too much In this exercise you can try out the impact of these four types of adaptations See what happens if you change one or more of the four types Is one type of adaptation crucial Or do all adaptations Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 16 have to be carried out to get tourism in or around the forest reserve Try to understand what happens in the model and how this 1s related to actual policy making Many more exercises of the kind explained could be tried out w
17. ey coming into the tourism sector comes from outside St Lucia The total demand for agriculture is the sum of the external demand 194 5 million and the domestic demand 72 96 million This sum is less than the external demand for tourism so the tourism sector 1s from an economic point of view more important Note also that the greatest demand is that of the industrial sector which has an internal demand of 649 49 The forest entirely disappears during the simulation and is replaced by agriculture The first forest cell disappears around the third year and the last is gone after about 35 years The first Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 19 cells disappear near the road where the accessibility 15 highest since accessibility 15 Important for farmers 7 The least costly solution for forest protection without timing the suitability is determined before the simulation 1s Suitability 66 64 66 65 68 65 69 66 Rest of forest cells 06 The least costly solution for forest protection with time planning the suitability 15 determined during the simulation 1s 30 66 66 06 0 2 0 5 EA 35 gt 6664 03 39 1466 65 06 Note this answer 1 only valid for a simulation with a certain random factor so your answer might differ slightly 8 You will conclude that it is possible to get tourism cells in the forest reserve if you carry out all four types of adapta
18. h of the exercises described underneath by starting SIMLUCIA Policy exercise a Working with scenarios The effectiveness of planning can be strongly influenced by physical economic and social factors external to the system They are usually beyond the control of the planner or policy maker His intervention is limited to the early detection of possible dangers caused by these factors and the design and implementation of counter measures In order to select appropriate and robust measures he will introduce external factors as scenarios in the system and study the behaviour of the system and its response to these new conditions In SIMLUCIA change in temperature and change of the sea level are external factors because it is very unlikely that local decision makers can directly influence these Aim In this exercise we want to examine the effects of temperature rise and sea level rise on the loss of land and its further consequences on the tourism sector Screen arrangement We will arrange the screen layout in such a manner that the input and output windows of the model which are most relevant to this exercise are on the display This does not mean that the other windows are irrelevant Because SIMLUCIA is a highly integrated model most state variables will undergo some changes as a result of the exercise Hence feel free to dig deeper into the model to discover other effects of the scenarios that we will simulate First open the simulati
19. hip between precipitation and agricultural productivity The current level of agricultural productivity is shown by the horizontal red line Note that because the current agricultural activities are adjusted to the present mean precipitation any change in precipitation whether an increase or a decrease would lower agricultural productivity though decreases to the left would have a greater effect In light of these graphs would an increase in mean temperature increase or decrease productivity in the agricultural sector of the island s economy Explain very briefly This is one link between climate change and what happens in the economy of the island Now close this graph click on OK and then close the natural subsystem diagram again click on the OK bar at the bottom In the economic sub system part of the diagram click on the Intersectoral demand box The table that appears shows purchases columns and sales rows of every sector of the economy It is part of an Input Output model of the island s economy This model shows how every sector of the economy affects and is in turn affected by every other sector Thus a change in output for the agricultural sector will have an impact on every other part of the economy and in turn each of those changes will cause further impacts and so on Looking at the External demand column which shows exports by each sector you can see that two sectors tourism and agriculture bring in most
20. in order to draw the road system on the map Your screen should now look more or less like this A NEIL ET File Edit View Maps Rulez Simulation Options Window Help El elle Step Run Stop Reset JO a EEJ a e Micro scale dynamics natural vegetation agriculture industry and quarries trade and services rural residential urban residential A forest forest reserve mangroves sea Forest location Forest locat on For Help press Fl What if simulation For the sake of the exercise we assume that we have the power to impose zoning plans With SIMLUCIA we want to find out why the particular forest area is threatened what type of land use is likely to replace the forest when will this happen and how rigorous should the zoning regulation be that 1s to prevent the forest from vanishing First run the simulation and watch carefully what is happening to the forested area Make a note of the time when forest cells disappear What is replacing the forest And when do the changes in land use take place run the simulation if everything goes to fast for you Reset and re Where do the first cells disappear And why would they disappear at that location Hint Select the Network map from the Maps menu and Accessibility for agriculture from the View menu and zoom in on the same forest location Clearly the increasing demand for agricultural pr
21. ith SIMLUCIA We could have studied what effects the construction of new roads has on the location of specific land uses we could have experimented with measures to stop the expansion of Castries to the North or to the South We could have tried how to divert some of the growth of Castries to the Vieux Fort area etc We hope however that these exercises have made you acquainted with SIMLUCIA to the point that you can start experimenting on your own Remember that the prime role of SIMLUCIA is to give you a better insight in the linked non linear dynamics of socio economic systems and the consequences of growth on a limited resource such as land Further to show you how these dynamics could be affected by climate change SIMLUCIA will not predict the exact future of St Lucia It is much too simple a model to do so The best t can is to calculate and visualise what sort of alternative futures are possible and what the role of different social economic and spatial actors is in all this As such it is a formal discussion platform it will calculate effects in a consistent and consequent manner Thus it should assist in awareness building and education generally and it should support policy makers and analysts in making better informed decisions in particular Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 17 Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 18 Solutions of the exercises The numbers refer to the footnote marks located in the qu
22. lation Options Window Help 8 ejeje ala step Run stop Reset 0 JO S Initial land Current land Use Use natural vegetation 2030 00 2030 00 agriculture 3284 00 3284 00 Industry and quarries 7200 72 00 trade and services 160 00 160 00 touren 17300 7300 rural residential 1475 00 1475 00 urban residential 20400 204 00 forest 989 00 95900 each Loss l forest reserve 1250 00 1250 00 10 San mangroves 1200 18 00 sea 0 00 0 00 beach 24 001 3400 Jobs Tourism coral reef 00 000 terminals ports airports etc F400 74 00 Infrastructure water electricity 17 00 17 00 Jobs Tourism Mal FS Jobs 5617 38 Jobs per million 36 15 Labour costs 155 40 i Macro scal Eie gt en Micro scale gt For Help press F1 What if simulation We will compare two scenarios the first with no climate change the second with a temperature rise of 2 C and sea level rise of 0 8 foot in 40 years between 1990 and 2030 The first scenario is a so called business as usual scenario which we will use to establish a reference state the second is a scenario which 1s within the limits of scenarios presented recently see for example Maul 1993 Press the Run button in the toolbar to start the simulation In the Climate window none of the values will change as we assume no climate change in this firs
23. n policy making Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 9 TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN TIME EJ Now we will run our second scenario First minimize the Micro scale dynamics window again Then select the Climate window and click in the edit field named Temperature a temperature that gradually changes to a maximum of 000 2 C in 40 years When finished the Temperature 0 00 4000 Change window should 11 data points more or less look like this ox Cancel Now select the edit field Sea Level and click in a sea level rise which gradually changes to a maximum of 0 8 foot in 40 years Then run this new scenario for the full 40 years In the Climate window you can see in the different edit fields how the changes in temperature and sea level rise will result in a rising storm frequency and precipitation and how this will affect percent increase or decrease in the demand for Tourism and goods in the Agriculture and Industry sectors Notice the difference in comparison with the previous scenario in the evolution of the Jobs in the Tourism sector Notice also in the Land use window the differences the number of cells that are taken in by Tourism as well as the amount of land that is lost to the sea If your scenario settings are similar to ours the island will have lost 10 cells to the sea read the line sea with the value 0 in the column Initial land use and 10 in the column Current land use If you run
24. oducts due to both the growing local population and the export markets put a lot of pressure on the land Agriculture is gradually taking in more land all over the island and also in our forest area This you can check by running the simulation again while you zoom in on other locations If you want to know how many cells are taken in by agriculture you can double click the left mouse button in the Micro scale dynamics window to open an overview window showing the number of cells of each kind at each simulation step Notice also the fact that while the forest disappears the rural residential area just west of the forest expands and that the expansion of Castries to the South adds to the general pressure on the land in this part of the island Next we will try to stop the farmers from invading our forest by imposing a zoning regulation This can be done by means of the suitability map A suitability map is the expression of the capacity to support a particular land use On your screen you have opened the suitability map Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 14 for agriculture Hence for each cell you can read how well suited 1t is for agriculture expressed in a scale from 0 0 unsuitable to 1 0 perfectly suitable In the Suitability calculation we have considered a number of factors including actual use land capability slopes elevation rainfall etc But suitability also involves institutional aspects such as zoning plans Hence
25. of the money earned by the island from the rest of the world 415 4 million and 194 5 million respectively Looking at the total demand external plus domestic answer these questions Which of these two sectors is most important How do the other sectors compare in importance with these two sectors Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 5 Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models Part 2 Policy exercises with SIMLUCIA Now that the general functionality of SIMLUCIA has been covered this part will briefly describe how to run simulations with SIMLUCIA and how to use it for Decision and Policy support We will treat three rather theoretical exercises that get progressively more complex and require a better understanding of SIMLUCIA Introduction Policy making and more generally decision making is a stepwise process In order to come to a decision the steps are run through sequentially in one or more iterations Depending on the author or the literature that 1 consulted this process 15 subdivided in a larger or smaller number of phases or steps and different names are given to each phase Some agreement seems to exist about the following three major phases and their contents e the identification phase the purpose of this phase is to better discern the real problem which requires a decision to be taken This 15 an analytical phase in which the real origin of a problem is the topic of research before suggestions to sol
26. on file called LucNoCh sim Minimize the Micro scale dynamics window the Macro scale dynamics window click the MBB called Climate The Climate window will open Move it to the left top side of the display the Macro scale dynamics window click the MBB called Land use Move the Land use Dialog window to the right top side of the screen In the Macro scale dynamics window click the MBB called Labour In the Economic Sub system dialog window click the edit field in the column Tourism and the row Labour As a result a new dialog window will open named Jobs Tourism Move this window to the right side of the screen position it below the Land use dialog window and click the check box left of the text Jobs As a result an empty graph will open named Jobs Tourism Close the Economic Sub system window Now minimize the Macro scale dynamics window It is good practice to manage your windows very carefully This will keep you from being distracted Keep only the windows opened that are of direct interest to you All windows and dialogs that are open even 1f they are hidden by other windows are updated by the program This takes execution time and memory space and thus will slow down the program As a result of the above actions your application window should look more or less like this Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 8 A J SimLucia File Edt View Maps Rulez Simu
27. s the results of the simulation as they are not different except for some effects due to the probabilistic variables from what has been said in exercise a We will immediately continue the exercise with the second simulation However do not change the Temperature rise and Sea level rise by hand rather select from the File menu the command Open Simulation to open the simulation file named Rise sim This file is identical to the NoCh sim except for the fact that a climate change scenario 2 C Temperature rise and 0 8 foot Sea level rise in 40 years 1s pre defined When Rise sim is opened the old simulation will close automatically None of its output is saved except for the NoCh log A dialog will open asking you whether you want to save the simulation results If you answer yes the Save as dialog will open Answer No Once Rise sim is opened make certain that the maps produced by the rise scenario are written to the log file named Rise log for every 10 iteration Also select Link to Excel again in order to open a new empty workbook Lucia xls to receive the results of the rise scenario Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 11 Then start the simulation and run it for 40 years and save Lucia xls with the new name Rise xls Comparison of simulation results We will compare the results of both simulations to compare maps we will use the application ANALYSE and to compare numerical results we will use Microsoft Excel Open
28. st to the sea in simulation Rise sim Also compare the number of cells taken in by tourism in both simulation runs We would like to conclude this exercise with the remark that SIMLUCIA also supports the export of its maps to IDRISI as IMG files In IDRISI they can be further compared analysed and manipulated This too is beyond the scope of this chapter Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 12 Policy exercise c Working with policy interventions In the previous exercises we worked with scenarios which we defined as hypotheses related to external factors not under the control of the decision maker Other parameters in SIMLUCIA can be controlled by planners and decision makers To mention are the demographic parameters that define the long term trends in birth death and the migration rates Decision makers can influence these parameters at the least in part through information campaigns education and or health programmes The same 15 true for the economic parameters For example a directed promotion campaign abroad for a product produced in St Lucia say tropical flowers could boost the exports of the agriculture sector Finally decision makers can restrict the spatial expansion of particular sectors in specific parts of the island through zoning regulations We define this type of interventions as policy interventions The next exercise will demonstrate how SIMLUCIA can be used as an instrument for land use planning natural reso
29. t from the Options menu the command Log As a result the log settings dialog will open The dialog allows you to define a so called log file in which the Micro scale dynamics maps produced by a simulation can be stored This file 15 always and immediately saved on your hard disk Hence there 1 no need for you to save 1t manually First click the On radio button Log settings EJ next define the name of the log file in the Log file edit field for Log NoCh log Browse instance NoCh log and finally fill in the simulation interval for 10 Log every an which you want a map to be added to the log file for instance On of _ Cancel every 10 years Press OK to close the dialogue window Next we will link SIMLUCIA to Microsoft Excel and enable the transfer of simulation data to Excel To that end select the Link to Excel command from the Options menu As a result the default Excel file Lucia xls will open This workbook file is now ready to receive data from the simulation Click in the SIMLUCIA application window to bring it back to the foreground of your screen Now start the simulation The dialogs will be updated and hidden from the user maps are written to the log file NoCh Log at every 10th simulation step and to the workbook Lucia xls at every simulation step When your simulation comes to a halt at simulation step 40 select the workbook and save it as NoCh xls At this point we will not further discus
30. t run In the Land use window you will see how the number of cells for each land use is changing These changes are due to the population dynamics and the external demand for goods produced by the different economic sectors Notice for instance how natural vegetation and forest is gradually losing cells as the simulation proceeds Notice also that the tourism sector is expanding and new cells are taken in by tourism activity This growth is also visible in the Jobs Tourism dialog and graph When the simulation comes to a halt after 40 years push the Reset button Then click the Restore button in the title bar of the minimized Micro scale dynamics window As a result the window will open Run the simulation again and see how the land use is changing Remember that these changes are simply due to the demographic pressure and expansion of the economic sectors Notice for instance the fast expansion of the industrial area near Vieux Fort and Hewanorra airport and the urbanization of the southern tip of the island Remember that this is the business as usual situation The model is showing us what is likely to happen if things are evolving purely driven by the internal dynamics of the system and based on the hypotheses built into the model If planners or policy makers are not happy with this inherent evolution they will have to decide on the right counter measures to stop unwanted impacts That is the role of scenario development and scenario analysis i
31. the ANALYSE TOOL If you installed SIMLUCIA as explained it should be located in the same Program Group Next select from 1ts File menu the Open command to open the file named NoCh log As soon as the program has opened the file 1t will display the first map of the file Maximize the window to increase the map to the maximum size possible on your monitor Next select again from the File menu the Open command Now open the file named Rise log ANALYSE will ask you whether you want to close the current NoCh LOG log file s Answer No to this question and select Rise og in the Open dialog From this moment on ANALYSE 1s ready to show you any of the maps stored in both log files and to perform a comparison between any two maps Let us compare the end states of both simulations To that end select in the first list box from the left the map NOCH40 and in the second list box the map RISE40 Then press the comparison 4 button ANALYSE will now show the results of a cell by cell comparison between the two maps and for each land use In the third list box you can select the land use for which you want to see the comparison Pick Sea from the list of land uses In green you see which cells are taken in by the sea in both simulations and in blue you see the 10 cells that are lost to the sea due to sea level rise Now pick Tourism from the list of land uses Again in green you see cells that are taken in by tourism in both simulations in red the
32. the island Higher in the mountains the land becomes less suitable for agriculture Physical reasons for this are the steep slopes the thin and poor soils the high volumes of rain the intensity of the rain storms the exposure to the wind and the lower temperatures Policy measures will stop farmers to grow crops in the higher areas because of the high risks for erosion land slides and other land degradation Also small islands have limited surfaces for collecting drinking water for their populations life stock and agriculture On the map you will notice a number of smaller dams from where drinking water is distributed The watersheds upstream are closed for human activities You can either read the result from the graph or calculate it from the table In year 28 the temperature has increased 1 4 degrees in year 32 the increase is 1 6 degrees By taking the average of these values you can derive that the temperature rise in year 30 1s 1 5 degrees Temperature influences precipitation and precipitation influences agriculture an increase in temperature will cause an increase in precipitation This increase will cause a decrease in agricultural productivity for a typical crop There is also a direct influence of temperature on agriculture Opening this graph shows that an increase in temperature causes a decrease in agricultural production The total demand for tourism is the external demand for tourism 415 4 million since all the mon
33. the simulation again with the Micro scale dynamics window opened you will notice which coastal cells are lost to the sea for example part of the causeway linking Pigeon Island located in the Northwest to the mainland will be lost to the sea In the next exercise we will show how maps can be compared more easily From this exercise we can conclude that climate change would have a considerable effect on the Tourism sector The effects in terms of land loss are rather limited We would like to repeat however that the results are influenced to a degree by the assumptions built into the model Certainly the time series entered for the external demand of each sector among which the Tourism sector will have considerable effects on the employment in the sectors The following remark relative to the representation of the relief of the island in this model is important Due to the grid representation of the relief the typical narrow beaches of St Lucia are not very well represented They tend to get disregarded because they hardly ever cover more than half of the surface of a cell 250 by 250 meter and their elevation above sea level is usually overestimated because a cell has an average elevation value Since the calculation of sea level rise and loss of land is directly related to the elevation of coastal cells one should be careful in interpreting the amount of land that is really at risk Also and even more important is the remark that SIMLUCIA
34. tions in a certain location or locations If you do not change the feature forest reserve into the function forest adaptation of type 1 but do carry out the other types of adaptations you will see that tourism will place itself around rather than in the forest reserve Notice also that there will still be tourism near the beaches and the coral reefs since these locations are also interesting for tourists the model you can look at the rules for tourism on beaches and coral reefs the suitability for tourism at these locations and the road network in the neighbourhood of these locations Exercises with the MOLAND and MURBANDY models 20 r f a hall EL P E nn a P O Box 463 6200 AL Maastricht The Netherlands Tel 31 43 388 33 22 _ Fax 31 43 325 31 55 www riks ni
35. urces and watershed management We will show how a zoning regulation can be introduced in the simulation and how the effects of such regulation can be analysed It is an exercise that will reveal the real dynamic capacity of SIMLUCIA Aim The particular aim of the exercise is to protect a remnant of forest which 1s located South of Forestiere and North of Floissac on the lower slopes of Piton Flore and drained by a tributary of the Cul de Sac River On the land use and vegetation map in the atlas of St Lucia the forest is marked as Secondary Natural Forest Land that was cleared for agriculture or forest products and has since reverted to forest On the SIMLUCIA land use map the forest consists of 10 cells 62 5 ha located around cell row 67 column 66 Important knowledge for this exercise In the PSS SIMLUCIA the allocation of cells on the land use map in based on a transition potential which 1s calculated for every cell for every function by using The current land use Neighbouring cells through the interaction rules Suitability for the specific function in SIMLUCIA physical suitability combined with zoning Accessibility based on the road network and the importance of the function to be close to the road network Screen Arrangement In this exercise we will work with the maps of the Micro scale models If your PC is equipped with a low resolution monitor you will have to keep the maps sufficiently small or
36. urism sector will expand So in the PSS you first have to adapt the external demand graph for tourism in the economics part of the macro model to 495 million in year 40 It might be most realistic to do this in a gradual way but feel free to experiment with different growth functions Open SIMLUCIA and open the file LucNoCh sim Adapt the external demand graph for tourism First run a simulation without any policy intervention Where is tourism located after 40 years If you as a policy maker would like to expand the tourism sector with eco tourism tourists that are attracted to the forest reserve in the middle of the island you will have to make some adaptations SIMLUCIA provides four types of possible adaptations You can adapt the current land use when you open the land use map You can think of this as a measure a policy maker can carry out on the actual land use In this example you can change the feature forest reserve into the function forest and so enabling other functions to come into this location In actual planning you could compare this to an area that at first is only open to forest reserves and restricted for other functions like tourism and now will be made available for other functions PS The choice for changing forest reserve into forest is made because forest is the function most similar to the feature forest reserve You can adapt the suitability map for tourism In actual practice you can think for
37. ve the problem are made e the development phase this is the phase in which a more or less large number of alternative solutions for the problems are developed e the selection phase is finally the phase in which the least unfavourable solution among all alternative solutions 1s searched for and selected for implementation Although the three phases have been described in a sequential order 1t should be stated clearly that decision making is very often a cyclical process during which some if not all of the phases are run through a number of times The purpose of these cycles 15 clearly 1 to get an in depth understanding of the real problems 2 to generate more and better solutions and 3 to decide upon an intervention or a combination of interventions that will solve the problem at least in part Full fetched Decision Support Systems DSS will support the decision maker in each of the three phases mentioned However many so called Decision Support Systems will focus on one or two of the phases only For example quantitative models are used to generate alternative solutions during the development phase or multi criteria analysis is used to select among alternative solutions in the selection phase This version of SIMLUCIA provides support for both the first and the second phase SIMLUCIA will help the user to get a better understanding of the origin of problems as they exist in St Lucia or as they might pop up in a more or less
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