HOC Powerpoint Template To a user guide, which
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1. 25000 100 000 75 000 50 000 25 000 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2011 Average MLS Sale Price 2012 Average MLS Sale Price 170 563 180 485 Source CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 49 Annual Price Growth Greater Fredericton Average Change 2000 2012 50 276 076 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 50 Average MLS Price by Submarket 000 Greater Fredericton Year over Year Change Average 2011 2012 MLS Sale Price Greater Fredericton 5 2 76 Fredericton City 4 8 76 Oromocto 0 2 Woodstock 14 Greater F ton Fton City Oromocto Woodstock Source The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 51 MLS9 Sales by Price Range Greater Fredericton 2011 2012 To ggi ar gu 380 oc 050 620 15 Source The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORT2. 12 Recent Employment Trends ee AE Transportation Construction Full Time 2 1 Manufacturing Trade Part Time 3 5 Public 6 Administration 2 8 Finance Insurance 5 amp Real Estate uiii 3 0 45 64 0 8 Source Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13 From 2001 to 2012 annual real increase in weekly earnings was 70 876 During the same period the average existing home price rose by 2 976 annually adjusted for inflation compared to 4 876 unadjusted Source Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey Annual Percentage Change Real Weekly Earnings Province of New Brunswick 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 4 5 2 7 3 0 1 7 1 2 0 7 0 6 EU 1 6 1 9 300 9002 3003 3004 3005 3006 2007 3008 3009 2019 208 30 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14 2012 Highlights Fredericton CA Housing Market Drivers Multi Residential Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013 Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15 100 Source CMHC Multiple Starts Fredericton CA 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 208 2009 2010 201 2012 0 Year Average in Annual Starts 3 I I CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION l6 Multiple Starts as a Percentage of Total Starts 4076 2
3. S gt Source Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8 Net Migration Greater Fredericton York County 500 200 Since 200 6 873 600 Average Annual 300 Gain Since 2001 687 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9 Net Migration by Age Group 2006 2011 Greater Fredericton York County 6 000 5 000 4 791 Approximately 86 of people ggg f f r L f relocating to the Greater 300 Fredericton area are under the age of 45 2 000 4700 1 530 152 0 0 17 Yrs 8 24 Yrs 25 44 Yrs 45 64 Yrs 65 Yrs Total CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10 Total Employment Labour Force 000 and Unemployment Rate 76 Fredericton CA 70 60 am gt 50 O 40 2 LL 30 e 20 gt O E 10 LLI 0 o S Sy Employment Labour Force Source Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 10 9 E g e 8 c op 7 6 5 5 4 S S X lt N Unemployment Rate CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Annual Employment Growth Fredericton CA 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Annual m Increase 2001 2012 6 Employed 2012 49 550 Source Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
4. 007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Annual Average Iwo Storey Increase 5 8 Price 333 388 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 40 Average New Home Price Moncton CMA Saint John CMA Fredericton CA Change Average New Home Price 2010 2012 400 000 350 000 300 000 Moncton 8 8 250 000 oie Fredericton 200 000 1 8 150 000 Saint John 1 1 100 000 Greater Moncton posted the highest average price in 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2012 50 000 0 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 41 2013 Outlook Single Starts Single Starts 367 340 7 320 Tt The average price of a new home was stable in 2012 The average price in 2013 will be comparable Wi Reduced demand will lead to fewer starts in 2013 Source and Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 42 2012 Highlights Fredericton CA Housing Market Drivers Multi Residential Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013 Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 43 New Listings Historical Perspective Greater Fredericton Average New Listings 1980 1989 1990 1999 2000 2012 1 414 2 473 3 918 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
5. 012 400 Fredericton CA Southwest Northwest Northeast Southeast Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25 2013 Outlook Rental Market Vacancy Rate 4 076 4 376 0 3 pts 4 876 Eu 785 2 795 vi Historically high number of apartment units under construction during the latter part of 2012 f Further increase in the vacancy rate expected in 2013 Vi Expected rent increase in 2013 will range between 1 5 and 2 5 Source and Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26 Condominium Starts as Percentage of Multiple Starts Fredericton CA 7076 6076 Condominium starts 50 46 as a percentage of multiple starts have 402 been trending down since peaking in id 2006 21 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 076 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27 Condominium Starts Fredericton CA 0 2 _ 2000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 Source CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 28 Row Starts Historical Perspective Fredericton CA 0 0 0 0 0 O 1990 992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 29 Percentage of Row Starts for Homeownership Fredericton CA 0 0 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20
6. 076 076 Source CMHC Fredericton CA 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 17 Apartment Starts Fredericton CA 310 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 O Year Average in Annual Starts 215 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 18 Rental Starts Fredericton CA 200 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 0 Average in Annual Starts 217 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 994 1992 1990 0 Source CMHC Rental Starts Fredericton CA 100 200 Average Starts 220 1990 2012 Two periods with 130 above average activity 268 Wi 2009 2012 Strong activity for four consecutive years 4 Construction tends to decline when vacancy rate increases IO 300 400 500 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 20 Rental Market Fredericton CA Apartment Units Under Construction 400 mu i ILLE ML MM M MM M Ma M M IM M MM A large number of apartment units 300 under construction is usually followed by an J increase in the vacancy rate 0 Aa 1995 1997 1999 200 I 2003 2005 2007 2009 20 I I 2013 200 Vacancy Rate 8 6 Notable increase in the vacancy rate 4
7. 10 2011 2012 Source CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 30 Semi Detached Starts Fredericton CA vs Moncton CMA 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3l 2013 Outlook Multiple Starts I Id gt lt Multiple Starts 267 260 3 I Continued increase in the rental inventory will put upward pressure on the local vacancy rate leading to reduced apartment starts Vi Demand for row units to remain stable Source and Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 32 2012 Highlights Fredericton CA Housing Market Drivers Multi Residential Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013 Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 33 Single Detached Starts Fredericton CA 300 E UU ml OU UD M 200 4m MY MD MI OY OU UD NM loo M OU ll IU UD M 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 200 201 2012 Single detached starts trending down since 2008 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 34 Absorbed Inventory Source CMHC 60 50 40 30 20 Single Detached Units Absorbed and Unabsorbed Fredericton CA Absorbed Single Detached Unabsorbed Single Detached 60 Single Starts 12 Una
8. 2013 Fredericton Housing Outlook Seminar Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation CLAUDE GAUTREAU Senior Market Analyst CMHC Housing market intelligence you can count on p SCH E HOME TO CANADIANS 2012 Highlights Fredericton CA Housing Market Drivers Multi Residential Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013 Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2 2012 Housing Market Highlights Fredericton Rental Market Fourth consecutive year of strong Strongest price growth among apartment starts large urban centres The number of units under Ample supply of new listings construction remains near historically high levels Rising vacancy rates MLS sales declining Source CMHC The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3 2012 Highlights Fredericton CA Housing Market Drivers Multi Residential Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013 Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4 Net Migration by County 2006 2011 10 000 8 000 4 791 4 000 2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 lt 9 Y lt gt o 9 4 P Ko Mo F S SU lt S lt e NK lt V C Sd So S OC SF lt v QV 59 3 e es E E AS QV SS Only 2 counties re
9. 44 Average Days on Market Greater Fredericton 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 Source The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 45 sales to New Listings Ratio Greater Fredericton EE ox maaa 40 x 20 0 Jan 8 I Jan 85 Jan 89 Jan 93 Jan 97 0 05 09 Jan 13 A sales to new listings ratio between 4076 and 6076 generally indicates BALANCED market Source CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 46 MLS Unit Sales Greater Fredericton 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source CREA MLS 15 registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 47 MLS9 Sales Submarket Greater Fredericton Year over Year Change Fredericton City Oromocto Woodstock 5 5 5 476 10 9 Fredericton City Oromocto Woodstock Remainder Total Source The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 48 Average MLS Sale Price Greater Fredericton S175 000 EEE
10. GAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 52 Share of MLS Sales by Price Range Greater Fredericton E Single Only mSingle Condo Mini Semi 400 plus x x x 300K 400K 250K 300K 200K 250K 150K 200K 0 I SOK 0 10 30 40 Source The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc MLS is registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 53 Percentage Change in MLS Sales by Price Range Greater Fredericton 40 34 5 30 a JU Largest increase in 13 4 MLS sales 25 300 000 0 400 000 range E _ 38 34 20 14 4 16 5 Tor FAT p Source The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 54 Resale Market Classification Greater Fredericton Current Conditions Resale Market MLS Sales Decreasing New Listings Stable Sales to New TE Decreasing Listings Ratio Price Growth Stable Days on Market Increasing Greater Fredericton Source CMHC The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Balanced towards Buyer s Balanced Balanced towards Buyer s Balanced Balanced towards Buyer s BALANCED CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORA
11. TION 55 2012 Highlights Fredericton CA Housing Market Drivers Multi Residential Rental Market New Home Market Single Family Homes Resale Market 2013 Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 56 2013 Outlook Annual Transactions New and Existing Home Greater Fredericton Semi detached Row Single detached MLS Sales 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 1980 1989 1990 1999 2000 2012 934 1 288 2 379 MLS is registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 57 2013 Outlook Resale Market MLS Sales 1 907 1 850 3 1 800 180 485 182 000 1 181 500 Price Ii Balanced market conditions to remain in 2013 TY Decline in existing homes sales expected in both 2013 and 2014 Moderate price increase expected in 2013 Source The Real Estate Board of the Fredericton Area Inc CREA MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 58 2013 Outlook Housing Starts Total Starts 634 600 576 540 Single Starts 367 340 7 320 Multiple Starts 267 260 3 220 Large number of apartment units under construction at the end of 2012 will lead to fewer multiple starts in 2013 Last year s decline in single detached cons
12. bsorbed 12 MMA 50 gt 40 2 A 30 E V E 20 5 10 0 vo do KS gw i S S Unabsorbed inventory exceeded absorbed inventory in late 2012 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 35 Single Detached Starts by Submarket Fredericton CA 82011 82012 Fton City Kingsclear Lincoln Saint Mary s Douglas Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 36 Percentage of Absorbed Single Detached Homes gt 300 000 Fredericton CA 076 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 2011 2012 Moderate increase the share of absorbed single detached homes priced above 300 000 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 37 Percentage of Absorbed Single Detached Homes by Price Range Fredericton CA 2006 50 m S SSS S S Single Detached 40 de Homes by Price Range 30 2006 20 10 0 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 38 Percentage of Absorbed Single Detached Homes by Price Range Fredericton CA 2012 076 Single Detached Homes by Price Range 2006 2012 49 21 40 41 11 26 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 39 Average New Home Price Fredericton CA 6350000 250 000 92000000 eee 150 000 2119056 100 000 50 000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2
13. corded significant Largest inflows of people were to the positive net migration Moncton and Fredericton areas MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5 International Migration by County 2006 201 I 3 500 3 000 2 839 2 500 2 303 Wi York County recorded the 2 000 pane largest inflow of i international 1 500 migration 1 000 616 500 426 The inflow of 0 international migrants is 500 4 MM centered around S Ko C S amp lt lt EG 3 s the areas with S d S lt p o A JS S SU I universities lt lt 7e gt Source Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6 Provincial Migration to Alberta 500 Alberta continues to attract people from 0 New Brunswick 500 Most of the people 1 000 leaving are under 45 years of age _ 500 2 000 Migration slowed during the 2 500 2008 2009 recession 3 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 IE Source Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7 Provincial Migration to Alberta by County Annual Average 2006 201 per 1 000 people Every county in New Brunswick recorded a net outflow of people 3 4 OS lt S amp 2 amp lt c lt Qo d SF SS EF FFE FV FS S FS SE STEND NS qv Sv S aC qo LY C d YS O E lt lt AN S lt lt lt Ry
14. the fall of 2012 29 076 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 21 Vacancy Rate Fredericton CA 776 696 7e 576 476 376 276 76 076 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Current Ten Year Could move higher in 2013 due to the number Average 3 676 of apartment units under construction Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 22 Vacancy Rate Submarket Fredericton CA m20l 72012 Fredericton CA Southwest Northwest Northeast Southeast Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 23 Private Apartment Average Rent by Unit Fredericton CA Bachelor One Bed Two Bed Three Bed Total Estimate of Average Rent Change Oct 201 I to Oct 2012 One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units 2 976 3 3 1 0 The Percentage Change of Average Rent is a measure of the market movement and is based on those structures that were common to the survey sample for both years Source CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24 Private Apartment Average Rent by Submarket Fredericton CA 8 2011 72012 The average rent was higher in most 802 zones in 2012 m The Southwest 700 zone downtown core posted the highest average rent in 2
15. truction to extend into 2013 with another decline in single starts Source and Forecast CHHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 59 Thank You Questions www cmhc ca or Call Claude Gautreau at 506 851 2742 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 60
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